Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Straw he/him]

Jesenesh the Stormwind had been unsuccessfully searching for a criminal in your group. Last night, he had thought that he had found the criminal, and went outside to chase them. Unfortunately, he was caught in the night's Highstorm and killed.

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A Joe in the Bush has died! He was a Refugee.

GM Notes:

-The day will end on July 12th, at 1:00 PM EST.

-If you need a vote count, just @mention me and I'll give you one ASAP!

-PMs are open! Remember to add me to any PMs you make! Please remember that group PMs are not allowed.

-All Knights Radiant have gained two charges of Stormlight. All Squires have gained one charge of Stormlight. If used, they will be recharged during the next Highstorm, which will be on D7.

Player List:

Spoiler

A Joe in the Bush Refugee

@Araris Valerian

Ashbringer Refugee

@Devotary of Spontaneity

@Elbereth

Eternum Refugee Skybreaker

@shanerockes

@Frozen Mint

@Gears

@Illwei

@Kynedath

@Lahilt

@Lord_Silberfarben

@Magestar

@Matrim's Dice

@Orlok Tsubodai

Sart Refugee

StrikerEZ Diagramist

@The Young Pyromancer

@The_Truthwatcher

@TJ Shade

Ventyl Refugee Edgedancer

@xinoehp512

@Zillah

 

[Mat he/him]

Fair kill, I guess. Relieved I didn’t die, and I finally have Stormlight!

Gears, I’m wasting no time. It is my hope that many villagers join me in this endeavor.

Edit: And I noticed PMs are open. Cheers!

Edited July 10, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Gears]

The fact that the elims did not kill Matrim confuses me. As a confirmed squire, they should have been a prime target, especially considering that they would be getting Stormlight today. The elims could have feared Progression, or Matrim is an elim. I still want to lynch Elbereth first but I would prioritize a Matrim lynch over other lynch candidates. 

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Gears said:

The fact that the elims did not kill Matrim confuses me. As a confirmed squire, they should have been a prime target, especially considering that they would be getting Stormlight today. The elims could have feared Progression, or Matrim is an elim. I still want to lynch Elbereth first but I would prioritize a Matrim lynch over other lynch candidates. 

That’s... out of the blue.

I think I wasn’t attacked because I could’ve been protected, and because I’m a possible mislynch- what you’re trying to do right now. Joe, on the other hand, was village read by literally everyone and would be nearly impossible to mislynch.

[Gears]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

That’s... out of the blue.

I think I wasn’t attacked because I could’ve been protected, and because I’m a possible mislynch- what you’re trying to do right now. Joe, on the other hand, was village read by literally everyone and would be nearly impossible to mislynch.

I understand your point, but if you had been killed, they could have started a mislynch on me and then killed Joe. Given that you are a confirmed squire, I would have expected you to be very high on the kill list.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Gears said:

I understand your point, but if you had been killed, they could have started a mislynch on me and then killed Joe. Given that you are a confirmed squire, I would have expected you to be very high on the kill list.

Or they killed Joe, then started a mislynch on me. It’s the same result.

[|TJ| he/him]

Well, I'm glad me and Matrim are alive. This makes is pretty conclusive that Striker lynch was not a bus since the only other player alive who voted on Striker is Matrim, and this fairly clears him as well. 

We do have an active Illuminator. If you are also a Transformer (or if there is an another Transformer) please mention your scan results to a person you trust the most. Be very very careful when you do so as you are very important to us. Obviously I'd prefer if you tell it to me, but I understand that I'm under a bit of suspicion so if you don't trust me, I'd recommend telling it to Matrim via PMs. Matrim will reveal the results of the thread. 

As for my vote on Eternum, I was never "leading" the lynch. Elbereth already had 3 votes on her, and I didn't want to add to her bandwagon. Besides I found Eternum more suspicious because of the way he voted for me, so it was a very personal suspicion. Everyone who followed though? Not much reasoning. 

I promised I'd follow someone else's train of thought and Matrim's seems to be accurate so far. Gears.

We have a confirmed active elim killer. Elbereth has not posted in a while so we can consider her as inactive. Not sure why you would want to vote for her.  

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Or they killed Joe, then started a mislynch on me. It’s the same result.

This mislynch onto you is probably just my paranoia. You are extrapolating from a sample size of one. Given that Elbereth is inactive [which I did not notice somehow, thank you TJ], I will change my vote to Matrim to effectively express my paranoia and suspicion. If I die, I request that you lynch Matrim and TJ. 

[|TJ| he/him]

Gears, throughout the game, I do not think you've expressed one suspicion of your own. I recall so many statement of yours that propose conditional lynches, like if A is highly suspicious of B and if B flips village, let's lynch A. In reality, strong suspicions are bound to be mentioned more by villagers than elims, and as I, and Araris said before, it will likely create a link of village mislynches. Your suspicion is not unwarranted. 

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Gears, throughout the game, I do not think you've expressed one suspicion of your own. I recall so many statement of yours that propose conditional lynches, like if A is highly suspicious of B and if B flips village, let's lynch A. In reality, strong suspicions are bound to be mentioned more by villagers than elims, and as I, and Araris said before, it will likely create a link of village mislynches. Your suspicion is not unwarranted. 

I have expressed suspicions. They have simply been vastly outnumbered by my conditional lynches. I have proposed your lynch a fair number of times, I have mentioned a suspicion of Matrim for not being killed, I have mentioned Elbereth's lynch, etc. The conditional lynches I have outlined have not led to anything as you and I yet live. Conditional lynches, detrimental though they might be, are a functional method of determining alignment [though the conditional lynches have evidently gone anywhere as you and I yet live]. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Like I said during the night, I found Gears’s behavior to be pretty elim in cycle 2. I’ll probably do an analysis of Elbereth’s posts this cycle, although she is currently pretty inactive. It should at least resolve/confirm a lot of the vague suspicions floating around her.

[Illwei]

I support the lynch on Gears. Matrim hasn't seemed elim-y to me unless he's doing a really good job.

[Gears]

If I am not lynched, I will be surprised. Suspicions [in order from most to least]: Matrim, TJ, Araris [because they are pushing for my lynch, though I understand that I have been suspicious].  Alternatives include the people that Araris mentioned [Devotary, Pyro, Truthwatcher]. However, my suspicion radar is extremely awful, so I recommend you formulate your own suspicions as well. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

I'm moderately sus of gears. It's important to remember their Striker vote though, and not fall into recency bias. Kind of sus of da bear for not pointing that out.

 I thought TJ was soft-clear? What's with the suspicion on them?

Matrim's being really paranoid this game, even more so then the MR, despite having been a role that if killed, would lose the game for basically everyone. This is sus.

Bad gut on Illwei. They've been semi-active, but no one's been reading them. This is VERY suspicious. However, i would mean a large number of the active analysing players are elim.

Which is possible, in a game with this many inactives.

...I'm scared 

[Gears]

1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

 I thought TJ was soft-clear? What's with the suspicion on them?

Vestigial suspicion from earlier cycles. My lack of suspects. I don't know. Matrim is a definite suspicion, Araris is suspicious because he's pushing for my lynch [though I do think he's probably a villager that came to the wrong conclusion], I'm vaguely paranoid concerning TJ. Ignore TJ for now, and if you have no better suspects, come back to him. Matrim and Araris are more important, though if you do run out of suspicions, I would recommend eliminating TJ before the next highstorm.

[Illwei]

22 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Bad gut on Illwei. They've been semi-active

Sorry about that, I've been doing more reading than talking and have been staying out of votes for fear of making mistakes in my first game. 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Sorry about that, I've been doing more reading than talking and have been staying out of votes for fear of making mistakes in my first game. 

See, staying out of things is HOW people get lynched their first game

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

See, staying out of things is HOW people get lynched their first game

And yet here I am

I'm more worried about getting killed by elims then lynched

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Right, a bit ago I posted something with 'when I flip elim' in it. No one has commented on it, which is a shame, as people who jumped on it might have been elim trying to push a village lynch.

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, a bit ago I posted something with 'when I flip elim' in it. No one has commented on it, which is a shame, as people who jumped on it might have been elim trying to push a village lynch.

I saw that and disregarded it as a setup, which is what it was, or a when/if typo. Nice try, though  That would’ve been good.

51 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Matrim's being really paranoid this game, even more so then the MR, despite having been a role that if killed, would lose the game for basically everyone. This is sus.

Bad gut on Illwei. They've been semi-active, but no one's been reading them. This is VERY suspicious. However, i would mean a large number of the active analysing players are elim.

Yes, I’m being paranoid. But I’ve mostly been relying on my gut more than anything else this game. The MR was a special case of it being my first game, and like you said, the fate of the game was on my shoulders. At this point I’m going with my first impressions, and pushing them hard.

Illwei seems pretty new player village to me. Like their questions in thread and stuff, though I don’t think they’ve voted at all? Might be wrong about that.

 

[Illwei]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

though I don’t think they’ve voted at all?

Yeah, I may or may not have been too worried about lynching the wrong person. Through a mix of me realizing that the wrong people keep getting lynched without my help and someone reminding me that I need to make mistakes to eventually know how to not make those mistakes, here I am. 

[Araris Valerian he/him]

44 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Kind of sus of da bear for not pointing that out.

I just now realized that this is referring to me. My final thoughts on the D1 lynch were that Gears could reasonably be an elim (and in fact his voting patterns would make sense for an elim) if the elims have vote manipulation. Since Gears has been a bit more suspicious since then, I have no qualms voting for him right now.

And now a scheduled analysis of Elbereth:

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Hello!!! 

Was expecting this game to start in three hours but oh well.  Rushing around doing stuff atm but I have things to say anyway! 

Contributing to discussion: 

1. TJ Shade
2. I’ve thought about how to coordinate Illumination but best I can come up with is top / bottom half of the player list use it N1/2 and N2/3, but once there’s a squire they’ll be able to coordinate with their radiant and get PMs all the time  

3. BE CAREFUL ABOUT CLAIMING. Including if you’re completely vanilla  There are probably fewer people with roles in this game than usual, because of how ridiculously powerful the roles are, and so the elims will very much want to kill all the village roles as soon as possible  I’m not going to say you should never claim but please be extremely careful. 

4. I feel like people should squire maybe cycles 2-3? Depending on how likely you think you are to die and all that, but remember that if you hit a KR you might fail to squire and have to try again. And hitting an elim (I will be spelling them as Diagrammist btw I don’t care what Aonar and whoever said) is obviously not ideal, but it’s still useful to see what they do with it and you’ll be able to know their actions and perhaps get some alignment information about them from that. 

Bloop! 

I think I pretty much agree with everything here. NAI

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@Gears why do you think redirecting the kill is less useful than blocking it? 

@Gears part 2 (I’m not multiquoting because mobile is a pain y’all) I’m doing it because for instance your response makes me think you’re more likely to be good.  

@StrikerEZ no group PMs, Radiants can’t be squired (both of those are in the clarifications doc I think). And yes, it’s entirely possible that people with Illumination are all in the top or bottom half of the player list but I don’t have anything better sorry.  

Also yeah there are almost definitely - hm does Progression have any limits on it in terms of not twice in a row or whatever? I guess the charges thing makes up for that... anyway there are almost definitely not enough protects to cover if you claim so Please Do Not. 

@Ashbringer what would be the point of voting on someone who hasn’t shown up yet? 

More agreement. NAI

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I’m still on mobile but multiquotes here I cooome

@Ashbringer To be honest I would probably use Illumination over Progression most times, because village protection roles very rarely make a difference. Over alignment scans...... ehhhh. I personally would probably use illumination at least half the time, but that’s mainly because of my personal dislike of alignment scans (I would go for Surges more though probably?) (and also if I were a whichever-has-scans in this particular game, I would do absolutely no alignment scans because I’m village and ridiculously excited about it and I’m determined to solve this game the old fashioned way ). 

  On 7/1/2020 at 0:09 PM, Gears said:

Assuming the kill target and the redirector are both village, the odds that a redirected kill [in the early game[ hits an elim is low. In the late game, it might be better, if just to clear suspicions. 

What about the value of catching an eliminator?  A roleblocker can be much less certain about such things. 

  On 7/1/2020 at 0:12 PM, Ventyl said:

Anyways, I think the role analysis we have so far is helpful and none of it is RI or AI. So it may be helpful for those who are confused about their roles, but I don’t think it will generate much discussion. Though, I’m about to contradict myself. I think that anyone who has Abrasion should probably use it during the middle of the time periods between Stormlight refills. Unless of course you think you’ll be targeted.

1. I’m assuming RI stands for role indicative? In which case, why do you care? 

2. Could you explain why you think Abrasion should be used at that particular time? 

  On 7/1/2020 at 0:32 PM, StrikerEZ said:

To put pressure on them so they'll have a reason to get on and say something. And at that point you can decide whether to keep your vote on them or not, depending on how they act when they show up. I normally do it for that reason, if I do it at all. Sometimes, assuming you're tagging them when you poke vote them, it serves as a reminder for them to get on the game. 

No one should need a reason to get on and say something beyond “oh look the game started!” - would you have posted any faster if you saw you had a vote on you? How many people read the thread and then just don’t bother to post unless they have a vote in them? 

Also, Straw already tagged everyone in his opening post. Don’t need a vote in order to tag people. 

  On 7/1/2020 at 0:34 PM, Gears said:

The game has been going on for 2.5 hours. I see no point in voting until we at least have mild suspicions. 

How will we get mild suspicions if not by voting?  Also, I’ve got one mild suspicion already! 

TJ Shade. Ventyl. 

Probably the only thing of note here is the interaction with Striker. But this probably comes more out of Striker not having played as many games where I've been advocating against poke votes. I could easily see this as both a V/E or an E/E interaction. The vote on Ventyl is unexplained, but that's fine. NAI

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  On 7/1/2020 at 11:46 AM, TJ Shade said:

Well, if you want discussion from me as to why you shouldn't lynch me, I think I've been helpful for the village in the games I've played so far, and there's no reason for me to get lynched before I can prove to be helpful. Unless of course you're an elim, in which case you'd obviously not want me to be helpful 

Nah, I’d still want you to be helpful.  Helpful is good! 

  On 7/1/2020 at 0:50 PM, Ashbringer said:

Elbereth - isn’t that how poke votes usually work? At least to see if people have things to say and contribute?

That is the theory behind poke votes, yes. I happen to be of the opinion that poke votes aren’t in fact useful whatsoever, as briefly laid out by the questions to Striker in my previous post. If I decided to vote you before you posted, would that make you any more likely or unlikely to post? Would you feel pressure from a single vote that I’d probably take off as soon as you posted?
Also, voting on people who are around to discuss and talk is way more useful and interesting and discussion is my primary win condition.  

  On 7/1/2020 at 0:54 PM, Gears said:

Scenario 1: Person A has Transportation and Transports Person B's action onto Person C. Person C dies. This could be because Person B was the killer, or because Person C was slated to die anyways. Scenario 2: Person A has Adhesion and Adheres Person B's Action. There is no death. Someone else could have roleblocked the killer. There is no certainty in either scenario. There are also numerous other scenarios that could occur given these parameters. Transportation is only more valuable than the roleblock when one is certain that the only action the target is taking is a kill.

Talking. In my admittedly inexperienced opinion, voting on someone for no purpose is meaningless. I am not opposed to a lynch, but it should be an informed, intentional lynch [as much as a lynch can be C1] 

I agree there’s uncertainty in both cases, but I still think a redirect is much more informative. @Straw you probably clarified this but I’m lazy, if you redirect someone who took no action are you told that it’s a success or a failure or? 

Inexperience is fine! I like new opinions! And I agree completely - voting someone for no purpose is meaningless, because there’s nothing for the person in question to respond to nor do they feel particularly pressured by a vote that isn’t out there with intent to lynch. (does someone want to pull up Kas’ LG12 post that’s vaguely relevant here) (I should just rewrite a nicer version of that shouldn’t I) And just as importantly, it doesn’t create any discussion! Because you’re right, talking is exactly how we get suspicions, but we need some way to create that discussion and make it alignment-indicative (like roles discussion generally isn’t).

Which is why my votes do have intent to lynch, and are as non-random as possible. Ventyl now has two votes on him! What do people think about that? Do people start a counterwagon? Do they frown disapprovingly at me and Araris? Regardless of what happens, he’s now actually under pressure and that is what creates alignment indicative discussion! 

EDIT: and @Ventyl, it’s a nice acronym but why do you care what roles other people have.  What makes you think that none of the role discussion isn’t indicative, and why is that something you’re thinking about? 

I think the entire content of this post is meta stuff that I agree with. Still NAI (sadly).

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  On 7/1/2020 at 1:08 PM, Ventyl said:

Considering my role, it would be good for the village for me to know someone’s role or have an idea of it.

EDIT: This doesn’t mean I want anyone to roleclaim in thread, but when we get PM’s I can offer my services to anyone I trust.

*squints* 
I mean. I said people shouldn’t claim but oookay.  I... struggle to see this from an elim perspective at the moment, anyone else have thoughts there?

Ventyl. Matrim for that latest post - not because it’s wrong, Ventyl could be doing a very clever elim play right now, but. It seems much more likely to be village, and that warning feels a bit like damage control from an elim trying to prevent a trust circle from happening / keep Ventyl from looking quite as good as he does now. 

I'll give El a village read here. This is a pretty aggressive vote change (and backing off on Ventyl, who El wanted lynch pressure on). We know Ventyl to be village, and I think several people have soft-cleared Matrim (myself included). But I think village!El is more likely to do this than Elim!El.

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  On 7/1/2020 at 1:23 PM, StrikerEZ said:

What's so bad about alignment scans? I'm personally a big fan of them. *flashbacks to AG6* 

Hmm, this is true, and something I haven't really thought about before. I know that there is a valid reason to do poke votes...I just can't remember what it is. 

My point is that poke votes aren't meant to just be taken off as soon as the person gets on and says something. They should stay on the poked player for as long as it takes them to convince you to take it off. Or you can decide to just not take them off. Though, I will agree that voting based on discussion is always the superior way to vote, and at this point we have more than enough (I think) to start making reads and vote on players.

Anyway, I'm interested to see why Gears really thinks that people can't be so certain that when the roleblock/redirect someone and results in something that seems like they hit an elim, they should be cautious. Like, yes, you should always be cautious when dealing with that kind of thing. But the odds of the effects not being caused by your actions are really really slim. Seems like it could be a way to cover the elims in case that happens to them, like he's trying to sow paranoia in our minds and stuff. I really like all the role analysis he's been doing so far, but all of that is basically completely NAI as far as I can tell. I'm gonna go ahead and put a vote on Gears because I want to see what he has to say about this.

1. No.  

2. Are you sure there’s a good reason for them?  Or is it just that it’s much easier to vote on someone who’s not here yet than someone who’s already around and might argue back? 

3. So what you’re saying then is that poke votes aren’t really about whether someone’s posted, they’re just “vote a person basically at random and don’t take your vote off until you’re satisfied” which is, notably, exactly what I do.  I just do it within the pool of people already here because that makes way more discussion because the person is already around to respond and talk!

4. Only sort of agreed here - I think it’s more likely than Gears might think, but I will note that like 7/10 surges are roleblocks or redirects of some sort. Which. Is a lot.  So there’s more uncertainty this game than usual. 

Good points all around. More interaction between El and Striker, and it's a bit more relevant here. El basically disagrees with both Gears and Striker here. Given that this is a relatively minor comment, I doubt it's distancing, so this is a very slight village read.

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 Straw put my role breakdown in the quicklinks! I’m honored.  

  On 7/1/2020 at 1:33 PM, Matrim's Dice said:

That's an interesting perspective, as I put the warning hoping to avoid people incorrectly reading the post as what you read it as.  Backfire.

I don't necessarily think Ventyl is an elim for saying that- if I did my vote would be on him, instead of nonexistent- but I'm just warning against roleclaiming in PM's, because, like Ash, I did in the last LG to an elim. The elim happened to be Ventyl, also  

Hm. Not sure what I think about that yet.  

Do you think that post made him more likely to be village or evil? 

More aggressiveness from El.

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  On 7/1/2020 at 2:06 PM, Orlok Tsubodai said:

plz can we not rehash d1 lynch arguments again? clearly no reason not to vote asap. no lynch minimum so someone will die. may as well see who you want to engage with, right?

i think el is trying too hard. whether overexcited villager or elim not sure. gears rubbing me the wrong way. always sus of analysis posts written pregame. way to easy to colour opinions without giving away alignment info. gears. no hard feelings, but would also be willing to lynch el.

not clear to almost everyone in this thread  at least no one is arguing about whether to lynch at all 

very very very overexcited villager - haven't been village in six months and i have missed this even more than expected (!!!). expect this level of activity / enthusiasm to continue for.... a while. 

also is not the whole thing about prewritten posts that they give no indication towards alignment? like sure analysis written after is more useful to the village but that is a meta argument against prewritten posts and not really indicative of gears either way. unless you think he would have chosen whether or not to post it based on his alignment? 

also, what do you think about matrim atm? 

  On 7/1/2020 at 2:17 PM, Gears said:

Because being perfectly amenable to lynching El is vastly different from actually pushing El's lynch. It has been 4 hours. Not everyone's posted. I want to wait and see. If El continues on this path of strange esoteric dark magicks, then I will vote. For now, I will reserve my vote for a later time.

Nothing will happen if you just wait and see though.  Vote me! See what people say about it! Discussion is your friend, if you're village, and votes cause so much more discussion and so much more productive discussion than just sitting around waiting for things to happen. 

  On 7/1/2020 at 2:21 PM, Araris Valerian said:

I want to kill you, not get you to post. It's a Stab Vote (TM). 

You say it so much better in so many fewer words. 

 

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@Araris Valerian what do you think of Ventyl’s claim? 

  On 7/1/2020 at 2:40 PM, Gears said:

Your words are wise.

You have convinced me. Elbereth. 

Excellent. 

  On 7/1/2020 at 2:54 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Would redirecting an action to someone who ended up dead be conclusive enough for you to claim the redirect, either in thread or in PM assuming they're open at the time? This could be what PM chains are supposed to be for, but unlike conclusive alignment scans, including an elim in a PM chain would give the redirected player enough warning to come up with an excuse.

I don’t know. I would definitely recommend telling someone through PMs, because that information could be extremely useful later, and probably confronting the person to see what they have to say. Whether to do it in thread I think is trickier, and ideally you’d have the redirecter in contact with a scanner to tie things up nicely without the possibility of revealing a village kill role. 

But mostly I think it depends on how much people end up using their roleblocks and redirects. If they’re relatively rare (which I’d... probably recommend? Chaos is bad for the village, generally) (would appreciate further thoughts on that), then it’s absolutely worth bringing up in thread - there’s still chance for it to be wrong, but a high enough chance to catch an elim that I think it’s worth it. But if redirects and roleblocks are flying around like confetti, the information is much less useful (depending on the game state, too - eg if there are six players left, definitely claim and mechanically you may well be able to work out what happened; that’s a lot harder with 24). 

  On 7/1/2020 at 4:12 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Hmm...I hadn’t thought about that. My thought process was more focused on the player doing the redirecting, not the player getting redirected. If the redirecter claims (whether publicly or anonymously) that the redirected player must be an elim and no one counter claims (whether publicly or anonymously), I think it would be fairly safe to assume that the redirected player is actually a villager at that point.

Wait, what? Why?

 

@Frozen Mint get in here  

El here quotes the post that ultimately (IMO) is responsible for Striker getting lynched. This is before the two initial votes that land on Striker, though.

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  On 7/1/2020 at 4:45 PM, Sart said:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

1. Adhesion is strictly better than Transportation for determining the night kill. If there is no night kill, there are only two possibilities. Either the kill action was canceled, or the elims forgot to put in a kill. A kill blocked by Progression is reported via the write-up. A lack of kill is generally a dead giveaway that Adhesion was successful. Contrast that with Transportation. While it is true you may have directed the elim kill to your target, it is just as likely that the elims targeted that person. This scenario creates plenty of false positives, and won't be helpful.

I fundamentally disagree with your assertion that role analysis posts are NAI. They are absolutely indicative of alignment. Yes, Gears said that he wrote his post before the game started, but if he was an elim, you can modify those posts to encourage poor strategies. By analyzing the ruleset, we analyze player's thoughts, and can detect role and alignment.

Orr the person who put in the kill hit someone with Abrasion. Or someone hit the target with Tension. Not to mention that kill type won’t be distinguished, so if someone uses Division that night and one of the kills is blocked, no one except the elims and the kill role would even know. Both situations create plenty of false positives, is my point, and I don’t think Transportation is worse than Adhesion in that respect. 

If you prewrote a post and found out you were evil, would you change it? Do you think there were any bad strategies in Gears’ analysis? Why would it be a better idea to bring up bad strategies than to try to seem village and helpful - ie if there were bad ideas in there wouldn’t they be caught anyway, and all Gears would get is a lot more suspicion? 

  On 7/1/2020 at 5:35 PM, Magestar said:

So uh.  Is this poke vote debate thing new?  I don't think I've seen it before.  I remember the "typical" poke vote being the norm.   

Anyway, I don't think it's really a big deal. It seems to be between people who vote to get people to post and people who vote to get people to post, through slightly different methodology.  I like the discussion driving votes, such as El's; they definitely have good reasoning behind them.  They stir the pot, get discussion moving.  That's good.    But I also don't really see anything wrong with the "I voted on you because you haven't posted yet" thing either.  It gives a little pressure; not much, but it's there for sure.  I'm always more likely to post if I have a vote on me, anyway.  I don't think it's necessary to differentiate those and other kinds of poke votes.  I think "poke" vote describes both fairly well, although the term stab vote amuses me.  People have different styles, and I think this is more of a stylistic thing.

I have to agree with Sart on this one.  I personally tend to think that a lot of "unkeyed" role analysis, where you just analyze the roles without giving suggestions, leans a little more Elim, especially in newer players.  It's a good way to seem like you're helping while really just hiding.  On the other hand, analysis specifically directed towards helping the village, with specific points on what certain roles mean to the village and how they should be used, leans a little more village for me.  This is mostly the case in newer players, and is sort of a general thing.  It's not always accurate, but it does influence my suspicions.

Re: pokevotes: (feel free to ignore this; Mage is entirely correct that it’s a pretty NAI topic but I’m going to voice my opinions anyway because apparently that’s just how I am ) It’s not a particularly new debate, it’s just that it used to be subsumed into the “do we have a d1 lynch” debate, and after that it was basically Araris arguing against them and no one else. Which made it less a debate and more a “what the heck is Araris doing and is it suspicious?” thing, which was very sad. 
It’s interesting to know that votes actually motivate you to post! I don’t think I’ve heard anyone say that yet. Is that true for poke votes before you’ve even posted at all, too? Because I can see it later in the game, certainly, but I still struggle to see someone look at the thread for the first time and then just decide not to post, whether or not they have a vote on them. 
(And I’m not going to go on more about this but I also very much think that poke votes of that kind are way less useful and give the elims the ability to hide behind not having opinions or doing anything risky like being suspicious. Will expand on that only if asked.)

So you like role analysis when it’s directed at how the village can use them, but not general role analysis. Which would you say Gears’ falls into? 

  On 7/1/2020 at 8:46 PM, Kynedath said:

Initially I thought it was suspicious that Matrim sided with Sart so quickly against Striker, but on further reflection it makes sense considering they were confused about what Striker was saying. Sarts analysis would have swayed them real easy and clarified things for them. What makes me pause now is how they said that they understood when they really didn't. This actually makes me trust them a bit more since instead of bringing it back up to the thread they could have asked fellow eliminators to clarify things for them when they were back in the doc.

I like this. Feels extremely village. I don’t necessarily agree - there are times when an elim might be more likely to ask about something in their doc but I don’t think this was one of those times - but it’s a really natural progression of thought. 

@Kynedath what’s your conclusion on Matrim, then? You were suspicious of him and then trusted him - did those equal out into a neutral read? Are you leaning village on him? 

My vote is staying where it is for the moment, since Matrim’s explanation wasn’t especially convincing to me. There isn’t any further information I can get there, but... @Matrim's Dice what do you think of Gears being the top lynch candidate right now? What’s your own read on him? 

El disagrees with Sart (I concur here), more NAI stuff, and trying to see if others are willing to vote on Matrim.

The following is not a post by Elbereth, but by Truthwatcher:

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Elbereth: The voting is suspicious, but maybe only because I dislike such random voting. While the argument for random voting appears to be accurate, it really leads to a case of privileging the hypothesis. Once you have everybody's attention upon a person, they become much easier to lynch.

I think this post may actually be the source of a lot of the vague suspicion of Elbereth that has been floating around.

Back to super long El posts :

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Good morning!! 

  On 7/2/2020 at 0:53 AM, The_Truthwatcher said:

This is a lot on information to take in, but:

Gears: This is almost exactly how they acted in QF45, except for the changed opinion on poke votes. However, that could be due to the increased length of the game.They were suspicious of Elbereth but did not want to vote. However, were later convinced by Elbereth, Orlok and Araris.

Elbereth: The voting is suspicious, but maybe only because I dislike such random voting. While the argument for random voting appears to be accurate, it really leads to a case of privileging the hypothesis. Once you have everybody's attention upon a person, they become much easier to lynch.

Ventyl: Why did you ~sort of~ roleclaim? Especially this early? After so many people warned against it?

StrikerEZ: They claimed that Ventyl's roleclaiming was NAI, which is possible. Then, voted for Gears claiming that Gears is trying to spread paranoia. 

Orlok: They pushed people to vote even on small suspicions. I disagree with this as waiting clearly helps village; it allows for a clearer frame of mind and prevents random vote trains from forming. They voted for Gears, because of a pre-written role analysis post, saying that this allows for easy swaying of opinions.

Araris: They randomly (from my POV) decided to kill Ventyl. They have given no explanation for this.

Devotary: They only talked about how the Surges would interact with the gameplay. There is no accusation or defense of anyone.

Sart: They voted for StrikerEZ as they felt the discussion about Adhesion/Transportation was a distraction.

Matrim: They warned that Ventyl's roleclaim could be an elim tactic. It feels too transparent for an elim, but this still is a valid concern. They got very confused about StrikerEZ and thus was convinced by Sart.

Ashbringer: Basically the same as Devotary. They also were suspicious of Ventyl as Ventyl had tricked them in a similar manner last LG.

Lahilt: One post. They state opinion of poke voting.

Pyromancer: Very few posts. They were pushing a Gear lynch to Kynedath.

Kynedath: One post, no particular reads.

 

I really dislike the current voting trends. None of the votes fell like they have much reason behind them, and are mostly reflections of very weak suspicions/differences of opinion. I am mostly suspicious of Aranis seeing that they have give no explanation for their Ventyl lynch.

Hey, this is a good summary! Do you have opinions on anyone beyond Araris? You've summed up each player nicely, but what do you think about those summaries? Do any of them make you feel like the player is good? Are any of them beyond Araris suspicious? 

Re: your summary of me, 1) my voting isn't random (well, the vote on TJ was, but the other two have had reasoning!), and 2) you're not wrong, in that it puts pressure on people who are around and active. And I won't deny there are problems with that, since people who are active just above the inactivity filter line can sneak under the radar very easily this way - but I do think it's worth it, because even if those lurkers are evil, voting for them generates far less discussion and is thus much less useful in determining the alignment of anyone but the person who ends up voted out. (I would encourage village kill roles to look closely at that group of low posters as potential targets, though.)

  On 7/2/2020 at 4:18 AM, TJ Shade said:

But, I do think Matrim is right to be apprehensive about Ventyl, since Matrim did in fact fall in to role-claim tactic by Ventyl in the previous LG. If you fall for a particular kind of trick, it's only natural to be cautious the next time you feel something similar is happening. For these reasons, I would not like to lynch either Ventyl or Matrim in D1.

A good point from Lahilt. Since our (Elbereth's :P) current tactic is to focus all the discussion among the people who are active, it gives the elims a good reason to just lay back and let us discuss. The only vote on a player not yet posted is Ventyl's on Joe. Yes, I agree that for discussion sake, pressuring the people already here is a good way to get some reads, but at some point, we have to give the inactives some attention too. Speaking of, @xinoehp512, @Lord_Silberfarben, @Eternum, @Frozen Mint, @Fifth Scholar, @Zillah, @A Joe in the Bush, @Illwei, don't feel shy guys. Join in! (Also, if you're busy, please just drop a post. We'll stop pinging you, and you can join when you're free.)

Do you think Matrim's warning about Ventyl is alignment-indicative? Do you think he would not have made the same post as an elim? (I agree that the context of the previous LG makes that post seem very justified/I no longer find it suspicious, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes him look village.) 

Mhmm, that's a very fair point. Focusing on activity is definitely best for discussion, but it only works if most people are in fact active. 

  On 7/2/2020 at 7:05 AM, The_Truthwatcher said:

So, this is these player's normal play style? Why do Orlok and Araris play like this?

Because they (and I) think it's best for the village to play that way.  

  On 7/2/2020 at 7:58 AM, Ventyl said:

There are a few things I want to say to this. One, I didn’t necessarily roleclaim, I’ve just (anti-roleclaimed?) said I’m not a Willshaper. If I was a Willshaper, we’d be seeing Lafay instead of Valas. 

You've roleclaimed that you have a role, Ventyl.  This game isn't role madness - I think it very likely that more than half the players are roleless, in fact, and the elims want to find and kill all the village KRs as soon as possible. Which now includes you. 

  On 7/2/2020 at 9:48 AM, Magestar said:

On that note; I do think poke votes are NAI.  Araris' stab vote on me in LG66 is a good example.  I think you'd say that's the more useful kind of vote, but Araris was a kandra in LG66.  There's no reason Elims can't do either kind of vote.

 

This seems very odd.  Ash's thing isn't really suspicious at all.    You could say it seems a little like couching, but even villagers do that.  I do that.  And the second quote seems like grasping at straws.  Don't let the paranoia overtake you, TJ.   

Hmm.  What else.  Ventyl's odd behavior seems normal for what I've seen of Ventyl, although they were an Elim in the only game I've played with them, so it's hard to say.  The thing with Matrim and Striker is a little odd, but not necessarily alignment indicative.  Could be a distancing tactic if they're both Elims, but that's a stretch this early.  I'll throw a vote on TJ for now.

Oh certainly, I'm not trying to say that votes-with-intention are something only villagers do (although I think they're something that could be AI if the meta moved away from poke votes somewhat - ie poking inactives is an easy vote that doesn't require developing suspicion which is hard for elims thus they're more likely to do it), just that they're more useful to the village no matter who casts them. And elims casting them is especially useful since we can look back on those votes later once an elim dies and be much more certain about our conclusions from them. 

I... hm. I'm not sure I'd be opposed to a lynch on TJ today. (Not sure because I'd rather give him another day or so to help discussion, but this brought to my attention that he's been really flying under my radar. If it weren't such a pain, I'd look through his playstyle for past games, because I could very easily see the suspicion on Striker/Ash being an elim looking for some kind of suspicion somewhere.) 

  On 7/2/2020 at 10:44 AM, Illwei said:

I'm completely new at forum mafia, (and don't know how much to take from the RP bits) so I'm still trying to firgure out how to...think? here, but I'm slightly suspicious of Ventyl, mostly because claiming to be a radiant seems suspicious just because I would assume it paints a target on your back. However, I really have no clue, because I'm completely new to Forum Mafia.  : )
 

I'm still trying to figure things out, but I figured I'd try and be a good sport by posting something, as it's been a day since the start.

Welcome! As TJ said, RP is usually very separate from game discussion. Thanks for posting something, and please post any thoughts you have even if you feel like they're silly or people have already said them - the best thing you can do for the village is say what you think!  

 

Current Reads

• Xino - not here yet. Null read. @xinoehp512
• Orlok - neutral, verging on mild suspicion (focus on me & Gears feels weird). Want to see further posts. 
• Gears - mild village. Liked his response to my vote on TJ, and he seems similar to the few cycles of the recent QF I read (where I assume he was village, though I'm realizing right now that I don't know that for sure)
• Ash - neutral. Lots of activity (love it! please keep it up!) but very little in the way of suspicions or commenting on others' interactions. Content generally seems very NAI.
• Eternum - very mild village. Only really have the one AI post to go on, but it's a good one, I think - lots of reads and thoughts. @Eternum, what made you go from 'Ventyl reads village' to 'confused about Ventyl' to voting on him? I'm particularly interested in the latter transition. 
• Striker - ehhh. Very mild village, probably - feels like normal D1 Striker, ie I'm gut reading him as mildly suspicious in a very particular way, which happens every game.  Mostly reserving judgement here. 
• Matrim - mild evil. His response to Ventyl's claim, and then me asking him about that response, didn't feel quite genuine to me. 
• Joe - null read, looking forward to him being around. 
• Araris - null read, being the same himself as always. Reserving judgement. 
• TJ - very mild evil read, based on the post Mage pointed out / gut. I'd like to go back and look at his posts; I'd somewhat prefer to leave him alive another day but would not be strictly opposed to that lynch. 
• Pyro - null? Hasn't posted much, and nothing AI that I remember. Would like to see a vote or reads from him. 
• Kyn - mild village. Liked his post re: Matrim and then his response to my question about that. 
• Ventyl - moderate village. Difficult to see a world where an elim draws that much attention to himself. 
• Silber - null, hasn't posted anything AI yet. Looking forward to him being around. 
• Mage - neutral/very mild village. Liked him poking TJ, I think. 
• Mint - null, hasn't posted. @Frozen Mint come playyyy
• Lahilt - null/neutral. New and trying to participate! Would love to see a vote or a read from them. 
• Truthwatcher - null/neutral. Clearly paying attention and loved the player summary - I'd like to see some reads from them as well. 
• Fifth - null, hasn't posted. @Fifth Scholar COME PLAY ...very surprised to see that he visited the site four hours ago and didn't check in. Please do that.  
• Devotary - neutral. Have never been able to read her, and don't really expect that to change, but I'd love to see a vote nonetheless. 
• Illwei - very mild village. New and trying to participate! I liked the thought process on Ventyl - it seemed very natural. Would love to see a read or two!
• Sart - neutral. Didn't particularly agree with his post, but didn't find it very AI either. Reserving judgement. 
• Zillah - hasn't posted, I think? If she has, I missed it. 

Summary 

Not here yet: Xino, Joe, Silber, Mint, Fifth, Zillah
Here but not enough info to tell anything: Araris, Pyro, Lahilt, Truthwatcher

Mild evil: Matrim
Very mild evil: Orlok, TJ
Neutral read: Ash, Devotary, Sart
Very mild village: Illwei, Mage, Eternum, Striker
Mild village: Kynedath, Gears
Moderate village: Ventyl

I'm not particularly interested in lynching anyone from my village lists today, but that applies especially to Striker (because he's just Like That D1 so I want to give him a bit of time) and Ventyl (bc I really don't think he's evil atm). I'm also against lynching Araris (because people suspect him for his playstyle far too often and I will defend him until and unless he does actually suspicious stuff), Illwei/Lahilt/Truthwatcher (because they're relatively new and trying to interact and I want to encourage that), or anyone who's said 'hello I'm here I'll post when I can' (ie Joe and Silber). Those are the people I'll actively defend. 

From what I can tell, we're now at a 4-way tie of 2 votes between Gears, Striker, Ventyl, and TJ. Of those, TJ Shade is the one I would be by far most okay with going after (though if anyone wants to move to Matrim with me I would be even more fine with that ). 

I think this post is only really helpful if El flips elim (which up to this point in the analysis, I find mildly doubtful). I'd probably want to lynch Mage and/or Kynedath if El flipped elim, based on this post. Still, I'll give a mild village read for breaking the 4-way tie, even if it sort leaned toward helping an elim. The defense of Striker is sort of NAI, although I could understand anyone who reads it as elim.

Quote

  On 7/2/2020 at 2:14 PM, Illwei said:

I see things like this - which do seem logical - and my mind immediately sees that as suspicious because it feels like a way to misdirect

On the other hand I still want to think Ventyl is an elim because people seem to have arguments as to why they aren't that base around their strategy not being good for an elim- Not saying that they would be a bad elim, but that one might ..pretend? to be a bad elim to make people think that they...aren't? the elim?

I...I can't trust anything

Welcome to SE.  

  On 7/2/2020 at 1:13 PM, TJ Shade said:

Basically, the same thing that's been happening so far. I draw an unfair amount of suspicion based on my D1/C1 votes because I tend to over-analyze posts because I'd like my votes to have some reasoning behind them. In doing so, my reasons seem flimsy and draws suspicion. Mostly, the suspicion comes from elims but ends up drawing the villagers too. 

I'm a bit surprised by the "flying under the radar" bit. Mint said the exact same thing in QF45, and she flipped elim. I'm trying to ask people their reasoning behind their votes. I stated I dislike Gear lynch due to the odd reasoning of Orlok behind it. I stated my disapproval at Ventyl's claim. 

(abridged)

We also need to talk about Ventyl. He told with strong conviction that he expects to be killed tonight. So why do it? Why claim to the thread? It serves no purpose at all. It only created confusion. Why should we dismiss it because an elim would not want to draw attention to themself? Why would a villager draw the attention of elims? Let's see the advantages he gets by claiming if he's an elim. 

Wanting your votes to have reasoning is good! But multiple people have had reasoning for their votes, and in my opinion yours have seemed flimsy less in a 'it's D1 I'll take anything' sort of way and more a 'I need to find some excuse for voting' which much more often comes from an eliminator perspective, I think. 

I don't think you've been flying under the radar generally, and I'm certainly not accusing you of lurking - I'm saying you've flown under my radar. You've been about as active as expected, you've said reasonable things, and I haven't looked closer than that. (The comparison to Mint saying the same phrase is... mildly weird to me. Not sure what to think of that; would appreciate outside opinions since I'm obviously biased here.)

He knows he's going to be killed tonight now. I think it's perfectly plausible from village!Ventyl's perspective not to realize that initially. You're reasoning as if he knew what the effects of his claim would be when he claimed, whereas I think it's entirely understandable - and indeed more likely - that he just didn't realize that by 'don't roleclaim' people meant KR rather than 'don't claim a specific role'. I tend to think that cleverness like that does exist, but it's much more rare than most people think. 

  On 7/2/2020 at 4:18 PM, Ventyl said:

@Elbereth I hope you’re not a Radiant, because I’m going to Squire you.

????

  On 7/2/2020 at 4:20 PM, Ventyl said:

Can’t exactly PM him now can I?  

Her, and no. And please don't announce in thread who you're going to squire. As others have said.  I'm curious why you chose me, though?

- 

@Frozen Mint YAY. And you don't have to be as active - we've got 48 hour days for a reason.  (And honestly, thank goodness. Knowing there's still 20ish hours left in the cycle is so nice and relaxing.) Thank you for having reads!

 

I think I have other comments, but I'm writing this while at D&D  so will post those later if I think of them.  

The primary meat of this post is El is sticking to her vote on TJ, which I read as slightly village. Elim El probably would also stick to her guns here, but I do think it's more of a village play.

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  On 7/2/2020 at 7:16 PM, Ventyl said:

I think that if the elims do have Gravitation, it’s in the form of a Windrunner. Also, I thought that just came to me is that it probably wouldn’t be a good idea for any Dustbringers or Skybreakers to Squire, unless you have a really strong read on someone. Giving the elims Division would not be good, but then it could also lead to the death of an elim after they use the extra kill, because they person who Squired them would know who they gave it too. So really, unless you know someone’s been alignment scanned and you trust the person who did the scan, don’t Squire if you’re a Dustbringer/Skybreaker.

What does the bolded part mean, I’m confused. 

  On 7/2/2020 at 7:22 PM, TJ Shade said:

This is known to be from an elim perspective, so why would I do that? I would rather hide among the votes on Striker/Ventyl/Gears, right?

No one is defending me, even subtly, so that should ring some bells. Hypothetically, if I have a role, how many hours before the rollover should I claim to try to dissuade people from a lynch on me? Will claiming dissuade people from a lynch, or should I take the knowledge of that to my grave? I'm trying to walk the line between outright claiming and not saying at all, since people have not at all considered that I could be a KR too. 

Edit: @Straw, could I have a vote count?

That argument doesn’t really... work? It’s not that elims don’t try to make votes look as reasoned and villagery as possible. It’s just that when you know everyone’s alignment, finding things to be suspicious of is much, much harder. And so their reasoning is often more flawed or flimsy. And sure, you could’ve hidden in those votes. I don’t think it’s particularly alignment indicative that you chose not to, personally - you want to show (regardless of your alignment) that you’re active and trying to solve the game and cause discussion. And you could argue that “hey it’s just D1, everyone has shoddy reasoning”. And that’s not wrong (including my own reasoning; I wouldn’t lynch you for this if we were four cycles in! ), but I think that your reasoning in particular is suspicious in a way most others’ aren’t. (I would compare it to Striker’s, I think, in that your suspicions seem to be for things that seem completely NAI to me. But with Striker that’s a consistent pattern for me D1, which isn’t the case at present with you.) 

Mm. Orlok is, I think, and everyone else is just... carefully avoiding the topic, for the last couple pages. I’m not sure what I think of that yet. (fake edit: also Matrim and Ash, apparently )
A claim wouldn’t necessarily dissuade me, though - Ventyl isn’t my strongest village read just because he claimed. It’s the way he claimed that’s important. 
That said, if I have time tonight I’m going to go back through the QF and look at your behavior that D1, I think - it’s certainly possible that this is just your meta. But in the absence of that knowledge, your behavior feels suspicious to me. 

*reloads page* *sighs*

I can’t convey how uninterested I am in a Striker lynch today. His D1 is always like this. Lynch him tomorrow, fine, I don’t care, but of all the people up for the vote at the moment he’s... well, I guess he’s the one I’d second least want to see gone, after Ventyl. Can we not? 
 

That last post of Matrim’s reads a little more villagey, btw. 

We have a rehashing of El's reluctance to lynch Striker. Interesting thought development on Matrim, but I'm not really sure that it reads village.

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Hm. I’ve now gone through the first cycle and a bit of the last QF, looking particularly at TJ, Ash, Gears, Matrim, and Eternum. (and then read back through the last four pages of this thread for comparison) Nothing in what Ash, Matrim, or Gears said really changed my read; I’m a little more confident in my village read of Eternum now (he feels very different than in the QF, especially in terms of his thought progression on Ventyl).

And TJ... mm. I get a very different vibe from him in that game vs this one - and I did take notes a week or so ago on the first two cycles of the QF (without knowing most alignments), so I can say with certainty that nothing he posted then made me think he was evil. I really liked his tone that game, in fact, and I feel pretty strongly that it’s changed this game. Much more putting shade on people, many fewer reads, and there were several moments in the QF when I went “oh, he said what I was thinking!” which I tend to think of as very villagery. That hasn’t happened at all this game. 

There are several possible reasons for that  tone change, of course, but a strong contender is certainly that his alignment has changed, which is enough to satisfy me D1. I’d also like to point out this particular post from the QF: 

  On 6/21/2020 at 0:16 PM, TJ Shade said:

Actually, going along other player's analysis is NAI for Pyro (from what I've seen so far). I'm not happy because the players are voting for him simply because he added to the train. Elim bandwagoning would be too easy to catch isn't it? Doubt an elim would try that in the first cycle when they can go under the radar by voting for someone with much less number of votes. I'd still look for a better alternative. 

That’s basically the exact opposite of his current argument of “wouldn’t I have hidden in the votes already there instead of bandwagoning?”. What changed? 

@TJ Shade, if you want things to respond to, here are some questions: 
Do you think there are any elims currently voting on you? Who do you think is most likely to be one? 
There have been several vote trains at this point. Look beyond your own survival - analyze those! If anyone who’s had more than 2 votes this cycle is evil, who do you think it is? What movements on or off of wagons have you felt were especially suspicious?
There’s only so far you can get in defending yourself. It’s much more useful to get your reads out there and do your analysis, and let people use that to judge your alignment. (That’s why I’m pretty much ignoring Orlok’s suspicion, by the way - can’t defend unless he gives reasons, and all he’s said so far is that I’m trying too hard. Which I’m not going to stop doing, so hopefully it’s just eventually clear that I’m probably village, and until then there’s not much point in focusing on it.) 

El comes out a lot stronger against TJ here, which I read strongly village. (Again, this is all up against the Striker lynch, so someone could read this differently, but I think there's a level of aggressiveness here that Elim!El might not have, even when trying to save a teammate.

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  On 7/2/2020 at 10:05 PM, Ashbringer said:

Okay, here’s an attempt to do analysis on mobile. I’ve done TJ as events progressed, leaving me with a slight Elim read from reactions, but not really enough to commit to a vote.

Gears: Started with a bunch of role analysis, acts very formal and bounces theories around with people. Has evidently scared Xino out of posting. I don’t really see anything that differs from the QF widely - and even there, our Elim team was scared enough to post a kill C3. Verdict: Slight Village lean. I think that’s just what Gears would do in any circumstance.

Elbereth: The first to vote, on TJ. I was considering pointing this out as a possible distancing technique, but with Elbereth’s non-poke stance and TJ still being the main lynch candidate, I don’t think that’s terribly likely. Didn’t want to poke vote but changes votes wildly (my guess is just going off whatever gut read is stronger?). Doesn’t give much value to Village protector roles. Analysis: Null, meaning her playstyle irks me but I’m fairly certain that’s just her playstyle. It’s my first game with her.

Ventyl: So, I don’t want to kill Ventyl on shoddy reasoning for a second (third?) time, whether justified or not. First post puts a poke vote on Joe, and advises caution to protecting roles and Abrasion users (possibly an Edgedancer?). Reacted quickly to votes on him, asking for reasons. Teased and confirmed his Radiance, said he’d squire Elbereth to confirm. Analysis: Slight Elim Lean, but I’d rather wait and see.

Haven’t seen any other red flags, but I’ll try to flesh this out a bit tomorrow.

First off, I'm sorry my playstyle irks you - I do try to pressure people and cause discussion, but try my best to do so in a way that isn't annoying or bothersome. If you have any specific things that you don't like or suggestions for me, please let me know. (that applies to anyone; I really enjoy this playstyle but it is relatively new to me and if it's problematic for people I want to fix that) (also I just came off of the MU championships game, and it's entirely possible I picked up some habits/aggression there without really realizing. I'll try to be careful about that going forward)

I've changed my votes more than most, but I wouldn't characterize it as wildly - though it is worth noting I generally don't like not having a vote placed somewhere. I voted TJ to get discussion going, and changed off him as soon as I had an actual suspect - Ventyl, for talking about whether posts were role-indicative. He then claimed in a way I felt was extremely villagery, so I took my vote off of him and instead put it on Matrim, whose response to Ventyl's claim read as off to me. That stayed for quite a while, and then sometime earlier today I moved to TJ because my vote on Matrim wasn't going anywhere and I wanted to see what would happen if I pushed someone out of the 2-2-2-2(?) tie. I've also done my best to explain all my votes except the first, so I wouldn't call them gut reads. 

I think your read on Gears is very solidly reasoned - basically 'mild village because no red flags + very like the last QF, in which he was good'. Could you explain your reasoning a bit more on Ventyl? That is - you give him a slight elim lean, but I don't know what in your summary inclines you towards that. As opposed to the 'read because X' that's so clear with the Gears analysis, your read on Ventyl seems to be a very separated 'facts' 'read', if that makes sense. Is it his reaction to the votes on him? Is it his claim? Just gut / tone? 

This is mostly meta discussion, along with prodding Ash for more stuff. Since Ash is village, that interaction reads village to me.

N1:

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Warning: This post is probably going to be quite long. Might split it into two parts. (yup doing that) I’m glad (and surprised) to see Striker was evil; that gives us far more information to go on analysis-wise. I’ll do that after this post, but off the top of my head Ventyl looks better (iirc Striker made a comment that was very wishy washy about Ventyl, like ‘I could see what he’s doing from either alignment’ which feels to me like the elims were trying to shade him and make him less obviously village) and the counter lynch on TJ (including me) looks worse assuming he’s good (reserving judgement there atm until I can read through how the votes etc went) and same for Gears. 

I haven’t read through the Night thread yet, but here are thoughts/responses from the rest of D1. 

Splitting TJ's long post into sections, because if I were to try to reply to it all at once the only thing I'd be able to do is scream in frustration.   

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Let me quote a post of mine from the very next page after the post your quoted. This is in response to Eternum's justification of his vote on Pyro in response to my post quoted above:

So the post you quoted was largely specific to Pyro, not other players. I wouldn't find Pyro jumping on a bandwagon to be an elim indication for him, since he does that a lot. But I do find jumping on bandwagons, in general, to be elim-y. 

Yes, that was my point! Your defense of your vote on Ash was essentially 'but why would I have done that when I could've just hidden in the wagons already formed? why would I do something that's a known elim tell?' and yet here (and in the QF post I quoted) you're explicitly saying that jumping on wagons is something you view as elim-y. That's a pretty significant contradiction. 

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I appreciate your attempt to go through previous games in an attempt to understand my actions, though your conclusion was not exactly what I expected. There are a lot of similarities between that game and this which you probably missed (or deliberately ignored). I voted for xino in C1 because he changed his style and attempted stab voting. I got heavy suspicion from Eternum for that. I changed my vote to Silber in the same cycle, who ended up getting lynched, and I drew a lot of suspicion despite the fact that people who voted after me had no better reason as well. So it's safe to say that I've been suspected a lot  for my C1 reads being flimsy. 

I mean. Yes, I saw that happen, especially re: the Xino vote. (I would say 'a lot' is an exaggeration, though. Two instances in a single game is decidedly not statistically significant.) And if you flip good, I'll be more careful in the future. But I can say that I personally would not have suspected you for either of those votes, nor did I particularly think they were flimsy. The Xino vote was on very thin grounds, yes, but you were also very explicit in saying that, and that you didn't have anything better. And with the state of that game at the time, I completely agree. With this game, however, I felt that your vote on Ash came at a time where far more alignment-indicative discussion had occurred than in the QF, and so expected somewhat more reasoning from you which the suspicion of Ash and Striker(?) did not deliver. 

There's also.... I really need to ISO you if time permits. Going to hold onto the other thing that pings me about this paragraph until I can confirm it's not just my brain making stuff up. 

Don't have anything to say about them, but I do like your comments about the vote trains and the people voting on you. 

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Reads:

Striker: I liked his answer to my question, but other than that, his discussion is largely not related to the lynch. I'd like to see some reads from him. Very mild village. 

Araris: Claims he voted for Ventyl because it seemed Ventyl pseudo-justified his poke-vote on Joe. But in doing so, isn't Araris providing a pseudo-justification for his vote on Ventyl? Having a strategy such as his, it makes it very easy to deflect D1 suspicion with others defending him because it's his style. But can it be he's using this style on the occasion that he's elim to escape suspicion? His vote on Devotary only had reasoning that she did not have a previous vote on her, but this gets chalked up to his style. Mild elim. 

Devotary: Similar to Araris, I believe they could be hiding behind their 'usual style' to avoid suspicion, but no strong indications so far. Null.

Leaving the Striker read there just to note it. 

I'm somewhat confused by your read on Araris, especially when contrasted with the one on Devotary - yes, it's entirely possible that Araris is hiding behind his normal style. (Also, I'm pretty sure his vote on Devotary was not just that she didn't already have a vote on her? I'll go back and check but I'm nearly certain that's not the case.) But shouldn't that, like with Devotary, make him a null read? What makes you lean mild elim on him? 

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Eternum:

He voted on Ventyl despite having a gut village on him. 

He immediately retract his vote, but shouldn't he have waited if he wants to see the momentum the train would gather?

I said I hesitate to lynch Ventyl on the possibility of his claims being true, but still said he might be an elim. In the next post, I expanded why we need to be wary of him since everyone were jumping to give him 'strong village' reads. You just voted for Ventyl because you wanted to see my reaction for it? Seems like an excuse for your vote-hopping. 

Am I not supposed to retract my vote when I see people not agreeing with my opinion or if they change my mind or if I see other players not adding to my vote? How is this any different to how Araris retracted his vote on Ventyl? Besides, you pushed a lynch on me for 3 whole cycles before backing off. Moderate elim. Make it strong if Ventyl flips elim.

Sooo first off, you left out a part of Eternum's post where he seemed to change from the gut village read to 'confusion'. Secondly, he explained in the next post you quoted exactly why he voted Ventyl despite that village read. So why does 'he voted on Ventyl despite having a gut village on him' seem suspicious to you? Does it seem suspicious? You're pointing out a contradiction here, but not strictly saying what you think about it. 

He wanted to see your response in particular, as he specified in that post. You posted three times between the two quoted posts, so I think he got what he wanted.  And there were two or three vote changes between those posts as well - I don't know, I just don't at all think it was a weird thing to do. 'Seems like an excuse for your vote-hopping' especially - what's your world, here? If he's evil, why did he vote Ventyl? Why did he change onto you? You and I both changed votes significantly more times than Eternum; why do you feel this change in particular is suspicious? 

Not gonna lie, that retraction post gave me a weird vibe as well. I'm certainly not saying you shouldn't retract when you change your mind, but the tone of it was off to me. (Admittedly I can't tell if I'm tunneling, so I'm not paying that much heed, but I see where Eternum was coming from here.) Araris' retraction was completely different, too? He referenced a specific post that gave him a village read on Ventyl. 

Anyway. I like this case a lot, lot better than your earlier ones; I also think it's wrong (partially also based on my read on Eternum last night in comparison to his behavior in the QF).  Conclusion: ????

  On 7/3/2020 at 2:30 AM, TJ Shade said:

Ventyl:  The main problem I have with Ventyl is he's so adamant to prove his role, but not his alignment. He did the exact same thing in LG66, where he swore he was a Leecher and even wanted to waste his actions to prove that he was one, but the fact that he's telling the truth about his role does not translate to his claim as a villager. Here are a few warning signs I saw from his posts:

• Makes a claim despite being warned not to. Gives no good reason as to why he claimed. 
• Main question to Ventyl supporters: Why would he intentionally put himself in harms way from the elims by claiming? What could he possibly gain?
• His willingness to Squire someone to prove his role (again, role, not alignment) is suspicious. He seems to have no qualms of Squiring an elim by chance.

This! Why did everyone brush it off? Am I the only one seeing it as an attempt to bait out a claim from Elbereth? Why no worries that elims might read and attempt to block? Even if they don't, everyone would know Elbereth's role or the lack of it after his attempt to Squire as it seems he intended to reveal if it was success or not. As for him asking to be alignment scanned, someone already deduced he might be an Edgedancer, so he could make himself untargetable and waste a charge of the alignment-scanner. 

On the bulleted points, my impression was that he interpreted the warnings differently than most (ie don't claim your specific role vs the actual meaning of don't claim KR/refugee at all) and so didn't actually realize he was saying something that significant. And on your question - you're assuming that he knew at the time he was putting himself in harm's way. He clearly does now, but I don't think he had any idea at the time how big of a target he was painting on his back (because of his comment about thinking most players are KRs). 

....if he made himself untargetable despite having asked to be scanned, we'd lynch him? That wouldn't be a waste of a charge, given it'd be nearly as damning as scanning him as evil. And I don't disagree with the claim-baiting possibility (I certainly had to be very careful in my response), but I just... I think that it's far more likely this is a chaotic villager doing chaotic thing than a master plan by the elims. If I'm wrong, I'll be impressed and surprised, but that kind of play is something I find to be very rare (and even when elims do decide to be extremely clever, it's usually in a role/mechanics-based way and not just... this). 

 

So, basically, I have no idea what to think of TJ whatsoever.  Well - if he hadn't been one of the primary counter wagons against Striker, I'd 100% still be going after him; the fact that he is makes me worried I'm tunneling. More on that later, probably. 

  On 7/3/2020 at 3:10 AM, A Joe in the Bush said:

Well, I don't have a lot to say. I trust Orlok, Araris, Elbereth and Sart, and would happily lynch Gears or [ Striker ]. I'm going with mr EZ because it seems like several others want to lynch him but don't think there will be enough votes to do it. I don't really know where to go from here. I don't think TJ is suspicious enough to lynch just yet. I also don't think we should lynch Ventyl.

Also, does anyone have a Votecount? @Straw

Mostly like the look of this, especially choosing Striker between Striker/Gears. Hard to see a world in which Joe is evil unless Striker planned to be bussed at this point (which is possible, I think, especially with the probably fairly large elim team + that he was roleless; if TJ or Gears flip evil then this especially bears revisiting). Net positive for now. 

  On 7/3/2020 at 7:46 AM, Magestar said:

Could someone explain the reasoning behind the Striker lynch to me?  I kinda get the TJ and Ventyl suspicions, but the Striker lynch I'm not really understanding.

edit:  And does anyone care about lynching Ventyl, or should I just move my vote.   

This makes me read Mage as village, I think. Fairly bold question for an eliminator who knows how Striker will flip - is there a word for the opposite of distancing? 

And the Shard won't let me put text below this quote because it's being silly, but I'm pointing it out because that edit reads very genuine to me and pushes me a little more towards village on TJ. 

  On 7/3/2020 at 9:34 AM, TJ Shade said:

I'm usually very very careful about people who defend me( Eg. Fifth in QF45). That's like the first step towards pocketing. I don't think you're pocketing me though. But as you said, you're vote on Joe is weak. 

Edit: I'm very scared of a late hammer. Mage will probably shift his vote back to me. There's Devotary waiting to play the executioner. So many people unwilling to vote. Jeez.

This is a really long post (El's, not mine ), but it's pretty narrow in scope. I like the progression of thought off of TJ (regardless of his alignment, it feels very natural), village read. 

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Okay, responses from this thread and then I'm going to go do other stuff for a bit! Definitely going to try to read through the rest of D1 (i.e. everything before my last post, since I just read through and responded to everything after), but... later. I've got other stuff to do.  

Oh, a couple other notes from the last bit of D1 that weren't worth quoting: I'm liking Lahilt and Truthwatcher right now, mostly tone based. I think Gears looks pretty good for the end of day as well. And I would really, really love to know TJ's alignment because almost all of the analysis of D1 hinges on whether it was elim/elim or not. >>

  On 7/3/2020 at 10:25 AM, Gears said:

Ah. Thank you for clarifying. However, as you have claimed to be a Bondsmith and are completely out of Stormlight, you are now extremely vulnerable to elim kills. If anyone wants to protect TJ, go ahead. This makes me trust TJ a little more, since if TJ and Striker were elims, TJ would probably only use one charge of Stormlight to save himself [and keep an elim Knight in play]. As such, I will not vote for TJ. @Ventyl, squire someone tonight.

Agreed on this point. 

  On 7/3/2020 at 10:28 AM, TJ Shade said:

I'll explain why I role-claimed. Since the elims will notice the two votes missing, and know that they didn't do it, and they would have seen me talking about claiming hypothetically, they will put two and two together to deduce I'm KR. And they knew I was under too much suspicion for another village vote manip to have saved me. Meaning I would be the likely target for elim kill today. Hence I'm giving you the info as well, hoping I could ask one of the village protect roles to protect me if they feel I'm innocent. Even if they don't actually protect me, this puts enough doubt in elims mind that they might not waste their kill on me as there's a chance that I might be protected. 

Disagreed here.  You were under suspicion from some people, but defended by others and some people gave no opinion either way. I certainly wouldn't have used vote manip to save you, but I would not have been that surprised if another villager did. (Two would be a stretch, though.) 

  On 7/3/2020 at 11:12 AM, Gears said:

The following is an analysis of the votes on Striker:

Sart: Disliked the distracting discussion concerning mechanics.

TJ: Self-preservation.

Joe: Didn't want to vote TJ.

Matrim: Didn't want to vote TJ.

The following is an analysis of the votes on TJ:

Araris: Found TJ more suspicious than Ventyl [at the time, Striker was not a contender for the lynch

Elbereth: Found TJ the most suspicious out of the contenders for the lynch at the time [Ventyl, Striker, Gears, TJ]. Notably, El read Striker as very mild village.

Eternum: Didn't like TJ's retraction off of Ashbringer.

Striker: Self-preservation and didn't like TJ's votehopping.

^ see why I said how much depends on TJ's flip?

TJ also read Striker as very mild village, I'll note.  But yes, I did, and had I been around probably would've argued against Striker dying. 

Anyway, this is a useful list, though I also kind of want to see a vote history. From my recollection, Sart's vote on Striker was fairly early, and the other three were all pretty late in the cycle? Whereas the first three votes on TJ were relatively stable / on him for a long time, and only Striker's vote joined near the end. 

  On 7/3/2020 at 0:28 PM, Araris Valerian said:

Wow, go to sleep and the world up and changes on you. I honestly didn’t think the lynch on Striker would stick, since half the votes on him at the time were caused by confusion.

Probably the two strongest village reads I get here are Sart and Joe. I mentioned during the day that I thought the tone of Sart’s post where he voted Striker didn’t seem like distancing (too aggressive). I’d probably soft-clear TJ as well, for a couple of reasons. For one, the double vote manip would seem excessive if he was elim, and a E/E lynch train is very unlikely for D1.

Probably my two strongest (still not super strong) elim reads are Gears and Truthwatcher. Gears wanted to maintain a tie, which is a way to stay neutral. Easy place to hide as an elim. Truthwatcher didn’t participate in the lynch, and was against either lynch, but also didn’t vote Ventyl or me, the two people that they expressed a willingness to lynch. Again, it seems like an elim trying to remain neutral. I also continue to have a mild elim read on Devotary, due to the positive interaction with Striker and overall neutrality.

I’d like to point out that elims can (and tend to, in my experience) ask rule questions that may incriminate them either in the elim doc or their PM. So I’d be careful in the future about thinking of this as AI.

Also, for everyone hesitant about D1 lynches, here’s a bit of proof that they aren’t totally useless .

Agreed on the village reads here; I'm going to have to go back and look but I think Sart's vote was early enough that that kind of pressure on a fellow teammate would be risky. Mostly agreed on the double vote manip soft clear as well, as far as it goes. 

Disagree on those elim reads, though - yes, Gears wanted to maintain a tie, which can be neutral. But unless you think TJ is evil, that tie was between an elim and a villager, which seems... much less likely for an elim to try to make happen. 
I'd like to see a vote from Truthwatcher this cycle, but his neutrality reads more to me like new player uncertainty (especially given what I remember seeing of them in the QF). 

And yeah, I never got around to pointing it out, but TJ's elim read on Striker for that question probably felt so flimsy to me in part because if it were actually a suspicious question there'd be a very easy alternative for elim!Striker. 

 

General conclusions: I don't know where I'm leaning on TJ and I'd really love to see him flip; village reads on Mage, Joe, Sart, Lahilt, Truthwatcher, Gears, Ventyl, Eternum (in no particular order, and I might be forgetting people). Less sure about Matrim now, he's probably in the neutral category. I'm... hm. I'm still very confused about TJ, but I don't think I'd vote for him for quite a while yet. I'm happy enough with that. 

So Elbereth wanted to see a TJ flip, but didn't want to lynch him. That seems mildly elim to me. Of course, I don't think we get much from seeing TJ flip now, given that Eternum, Ventyl, and Joe all died.

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I had a bad day yesterday and couldn't get myself to check the Shard again. I'm spending the day with my grandparents, but will probably be back with a properly long post this evening.

I've got 10 posts in a multiquote, but don't have the time nor energy to respond to them properly right now. Also, y'all, I leave for a day and suddenly I feel like everyone's gone insane, what the heck.  

I know I've got some suspicion on me; if anyone has specific questions for me I'll respond to them, but the main things seem to be either gut or me defending Striker (and Ventyl?). Which I did, and I think I've explained adequately why. 

@TJ Shade, I was focusing on you but questioning myself during the night turn because I was very certain you were evil at the end of D1, and recalibrating my read of you given Striker's flip took time. 

@Orlok Tsubodai, when exactly has me ignoring you been a tell? The only times I've been evil and you weren't were three LGs before we knew each other well (LG20, LG23, and LG28) and LG43, in which you caught me D1 due to PM interactions. Regardless, my read on you is that I think you're evil but don't especially want to pursue that lynch right now for a few reasons (you're a valuable player, I'm uncertain in my read and would like to see more, I'm enjoying you as mad watcher, you'd be a pain to lynch, and I don't really like the basis for my suspicions). 

@ everyone asking for my reads, I don't know! I think Gears and Ventyl are village still; I think e/e TJ/Ventyl is not a thing and I'm leaning v/v there but still uncertain on TJ (not willing to vote for him, though). Slightly unsure of Araris right now. Feeling a particular need to go through Ash's posts again. 

That's about all I've got, though. I promise I'll come back with actual reads later. 

Gears, I think you're severely underestimating the amount of information that could be garnered from your flip / from flips in general. I might lay that out more clearly later if I have the time. 

Oh, and I really don't think Ventyl not knowing he didn't use up charges is a lie. If I had to say it's AI I'd say it makes me lean village on him, but that's the sort of thing I'd rather not consider at all (because of how closely it infringes on GM stuff, I guess? I know I as a GM wouldn't want people to be reading into it). So. There's that. 

That's all from me for a while. Happy Independence Day, and all that!

Not much to see here, except that I agree with the elim read on Orlok, and would be willing to pursue it if we decide to lynch another inactive.

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No, I don’t think lynching you would be beneficial, because I think you’re village. I also think Ventyl is village. I think I personally would get more information from your flip (because the stuff around Ventyl is both confused enough to be difficult to interpret, and unless he ends up evil I’ll be interpreting stuff about him in exactly the same way I do now), but neither of you are good candidates in my mind. (Ventyl’s flip might be more useful to the thread as a whole, though?) 

Who is a good candidate? Ask me in six hours and I might have an answer.  

More village read on Gears, which I still would have agreed with up to this point.

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Hey. So, mental illness sucks and shouldn’t exist, and in related news I will be around for the next hour and no longer because apparently breaking my sleep schedule and forgetting my meds results in Not Being Able To Do Anything syndrome. Who knew?  

So I’m here, though splitting my time between this and the MR and fixing all the threads so they’re not a complete mess (by which I deduce Fifth hasn’t been around yet?). I haven’t read through the pages since I’ve been gone; I’ll skim the last couple pages if possible but mostly I’m here to check in, see if there’s anything I should reply to / comment on, and say I hope to be around more tomorrow but can’t promise anything because promises are stressful and my brain thinks stress must be avoided at all costs.  

Looking at literally only this page, I’d be fine with a Matrim lynch (and much more so with that than a Ventyl lynch (which seems to still be happening?). Mostly because I think Ventyl is village, a little bit because I feel like (and I can’t back this up without reading the intervening pages) this might be turning into lynching someone for non-optimal play and I would very very would rather not do that. 

So Matrim I guess? 

EDIT: Oh, and my laptop charger is broken and I won’t get a replacement for another week, so I’m going to be on mobile from now on I guess. :)) 

I think this post is pretty NAI.

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@The Young Pyromancer I think Ventyl is a worse lynch candidate than Matrim because, based on everything I’ve seen (ie only up to my post near the beginning of the Day), I think Ventyl is village and am much much less certain about Matrim’s alignment. I made that vote specifically in the hope that there’ll be a shift to Matrim or some other candidate (I have no idea beyond Ventyl who is up for the lynch, since as previously noted I’ve literally only read this page). I can see how you’d think it’s distancing, but... oh well, I guess?  Not much I can do about that. 

Based on the discussion of Gears’ analysis and such, am I correct in thinking the arguments for Ventyl’s lynch are A: that lynching him has results that are net positive compared to the results of not lynching him, and B: there’s been so much discussion about him that we might as well flip him so we can analyze it? 

If so, A is exactly the same for literally every mildly suspicious person. And rests on the assumption that the probability of his alignment 50% for both, which is decidedly not the case as far as I can tell. And B is an information lynch, which is understandable but not something I tend to think is a good idea without a reasonable amount of suspicion behind it as well (which others may have but I certainly do not). 

Also, quicklinking on mobile sucks, so sorry for the mess they are now and I’ll fix it eventually. 

EDIT: Just saw Matrim’s claim. I think it very unlikely that elim!Ventyl would squire a villager to get trust (because I am very much of the opinion that KRs are rare and the elim team does not have more of them than vanillas, plus Ventyl was clearly in danger of dying so they’d have wanted him to squire to keep part of his role when he probably did die), though I find it weird that no one (iirc) is mentioning them as an elim team - like specifically @Gears even if Ventyl is evil why would you automatically assume he squired a villager to pocket them? It’s not that there’s no answer to that question, it’s just that no one brought it up. 
Anyway, I don’t think that has much of any bearing on Ventyl’s alignment, I don’t especially think Matrim’s claim was a good idea (though idk, it’s not that important I think?), and it makes me slightly more inclined to think Matrim is good but not enough to take my vote off. 

And having also seen a vote count, going to say again for the record that I don’t think Gears is evil either. Would prefer him over Ventyl, but would prefer Matrim over both of them. 

And that’s my time. Night all, see you tomorrow hopefully. 

Even this is kinda NAI, since village!Ventyl could have squired elim!Matrim quite easily.

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What? No, I think Matrim is a better lynch than Ventyl from their posts up to a few hours after the start of D2. I deduced that Ventyl is a current lynch target from those posts and tried to get the arguments about his lynch from them, but my opinion on who to vote for is based on my reads which are based on C1 and a bit of the start of the day before I went and had to do celebratory things. 

also yeah I’m actually sleeping now bye

EDIT: @TJ Shade see my edit

and on that particular piece of evidence, I think you’re putting way too much weight on it and in particular would ask what Striker had said prior to that reads wise that’d have boxed him in; and secondly I’d ask when in the cycle this was and think it especially depends on who else was around - and just... idk it depends on how clued in to the thread he was about your self preservation vote vs where Ventyl was vs who of his teammates were on that night have been able to swing a vote on you easier than the one on Ventyl vs (not really vs but I’m tired whatever) whether he thought that he’d be able to manipulate Ventyl in a way he couldn’t you and also just, which of you is more of a problem for the elims depends not only on roles and had you soft claimed at that point? 

Sorry, I know that’s a mess of random points and not super coherent, but I’m sort of spitballing because I think that piece of evidence is way less damning than you think but I don’t have the time to actually look at the thread so I’m listing reasonings why it might not be valid without knowing which actually apply 

anyway in another time and place I might say that’s really convincing but I just really do not think Ventyl is evil so yeah

good night

Yeah this isn't very coherent. And it's the last post from Elbereth. I've got an overall solid village read on her, and feel like all of the vague elim reads came from that one post by Truthwatcher, which makes me vaguely suspicious of the people just repeating that idea.

[Mat he/him]

@Araris Valerian I will take that opinion into account in later cycles. It’s nice to get an outside voice other than myself on El, who I mainly suspected for their votes on me  Thanks

[Mint11 she/her]

Okay, I know I said I'd have an analysis post today.  But man, I really underestimated how much there was. I promise I'll have it tomorrow.

[|TJ| he/him]

10 hours ago, Illwei said:

Yeah, I may or may not have been too worried about lynching the wrong person. Through a mix of me realizing that the wrong people keep getting lynched without my help and someone reminding me that I need to make mistakes to eventually know how to not make those mistakes, here I am. 

Hey, glad to see you're still keeping up with the game. Slightly concerned that you're an elim, but an elim would have decided to stay quiet seeing as we have decided to focus our efforts on the seemingly active elim killer. 

11 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm moderately sus of gears. It's important to remember their Striker vote though, and not fall into recency bias. Kind of sus of da bear for not pointing that out.

Yeah, for me, that's the only thing on the village side of the scale for Gears, and the only thing that is causing me to slightly doubt the lynch. Having said that, my reads are off this game, so if I think he's village, then he's probably an elim. xD

6 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

Okay, I know I said I'd have an analysis post today.  But man, I really underestimated how much there was. I promise I'll have it tomorrow.

No worries, Mint! Don't feel like you HAVE to make long posts to contribute. If you chip in here and there, that's totally fine with me. If you want to, then of course, go ahead.