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You all warm my heart. I don’t come to the forum very often anymore, but this still makes me laugh.

Hi everyone. Calano here. With some news. A little while back, I made a post saying I'd be still here, but taking a break. Become something of a lurker. Well, I've decided to just take a break entirely. It's not been so great for me mentally, to have the Shard hanging in the back of my mind. I'll update y'all on big important things in my life, because I like telling people those things, but for the most part I'll be unreachable unless you have my phone number. If you want my phone number, ask someone who has it to PM it to you: I'll gladly accept texts from Sharders, but I'm not comfortable just putting my phone number out there. Y'all are some of the greatest online (and IRL) people I know. This community is safe, and accepting, and warm, and homely, and wonderful. But I have a life to live. So, I'll be going. I don't know if I'll return. I might not, not to a level of activity that I once had. Y'all have been just... an incredible group of people. And I'm honored to call you my family. I've seen so many others leave; Haly, Misting was gone for a while, Fadran left unexpectedly, Kajsa kinda went dark too, but I can text her sometimes lol But people have been slowly leaving. And I think that now it's my turn. Like I said above, I'll come back occasionally for big updates, regarding college, my mission, big life milestones, good and bad news, etc. But for the most part, I'm honorably discharging myself from active duty on this site (so to speak). loverboy Lessons is still coming out January 19th, 2024. I plan to make the entire album the week of December 18th, and get it going through the distribution process starting that weekend (23rd/24th). It's been a pleasure. It really has. I love you all so much. Goodbye.

Uhhh, I've never posted an image before, so this might not work, but here's something I made: (RoW spoilers)

Not an expert in Cosmere/Connection stuff by any means, but something in RoW sparked curiosity: In my opinion, Adolin is personally suited to Stonewards (team dynamics, being there for those who need them) and not so much Edgedancers (being there for the common folk). If Maya did not exist, he may have attracted a peakspren already? Also, I was just reading RoW for the second time and stumbled upon these 3 Adolin thoughts italicized in Chapter 35 as he fought the Tukari off with Maya alongside him, and Brandon's italicizing seems suspicious to me: 1. Never underestimate the strength of a soldier trained to stand fast. 2. Never underestimate the simple intimidating force of a man who won't back down. 3. Never underestimate the worth of being willing to hold. Your. GROUND. Do these sound suspiciously like Oaths? I have noticed Brandon previously italicizing Oaths. Especially the first one which sounds very similar to what Coppermind thinks will be a Stoneward second Ideal! Has Adolin already sworn his Stoneward Ideals, but no peakspren around obviously, but do you think Maya somehow accepted these (they can sense each other's thoughts/feelings) and What decided that cultuvationspren would be Edgedancer spren and peakspren be Stoneward spren? Could Maya and Adolin be making a cultivationspren Stoneward???

to wilt and die yet finally fly is to love and see but never be free

Panda Life Update #2: Today was actually pretty okay. My best friend dragged me to my school counselor, it was actually kinda relieving to get some help, to know someone’s there other than my best friend. A little safe space if you will. I didn’t have a panic attack today! That was great! And some of the people I strongly dislike weren’t there so that was relaxing. I got a lot of physical attention today from my best friend, which I am always so grateful for. And now I’m scream/singing in my garage musical songs. Y’all will laugh a me, but I played some Fortnite with my little brother to spend some time with him and and his friends. All together a pretty decent day. So, looks like today was better than yesterday by a long shot. Horray. Just wanted to remind yall I’m still alive, breathing, dragon slaying, and grilled cheese makin. If any of yall have something to talk about I’m down, any of yall wanna see if we have the same steam or Nintendo games we can play together, I’m down. imma hop on MC in a bit but for now- BACK TO SCREAM SINGING

You aren't perfect. Everyone is destined to fail at one point or another. That's life. Everyone makes mistakes, everyone does the wrong things at times. Sometimes for the right reasons, even. Sometimes it's so bad that you wonder if it would've been better if you hadn't tried to do anything at all. Everyone will fail. That is guaranteed. It's what we do with failure that defines us. Do we wallow in the misery of failing for weeks on end, or do get back up, wipe off the dust, and try to do right by it. Do we try again? Except, it isn't like that. It isn't "Are you this person or this person?" It never is. It's "Which one are you more like right now and what kind of positive change can you make? What can you do to take steps towards trying again?" It's horrible after doing something so wrong. Something that leaves you feeling terrible. I know that feeling all too well. I was in that recently. But... you know what I realized? Life is ups and downs. It's constantly shifting between bad and good. We get better over time, but we also get worse over time. It will be like that. A lot. If it's worse, then it's bound to, eventually, get better. Not instantly, not tommorow, not next week. Eventually. Better isn't great. Better is easier. Easier can mean so many things. It'll probably get harder before it gets better, my friends. And, it will feel like there's no end to pain. But there is. That's why we endure to the end. That's why we keep going even when it's hard. That's why you're going to do your best to pick yourself up and keep going. It's like falling off a bike ride. You're in the middle of your ride, a mile or two from your destination. You've scraped your knees badly, don't know if you can walk. But you have to. You won't get your relief fully until you're at your destination. There's still a long, painful walk to make it there, but there's that end. There's that destination. It's a good thing, however, that there's people who help. People who help bring your bike there, people who lend you their water bottle, people who give you kind words to keep going. You can make it! And, a lot of the time, they're in the same situation you are. They are, often, feeling that pain too. And they smile. They smile and try to help because they know the secret. The best way to help yourself is to help others. Keep going, my friends. We'll make it to the destination eventually. We'll finish the journey. We'll get bandages for our bruises. We'll get better. "He that loseth his life for my sake shall find it." - Matthew:10:39

I DREW A THING! This is my OC (Kiesha) and @The Halcyon Girl’s OC (Callum). THEYRE SO ADORABLE TOGETHER AND THEIR ROMANCE IS JUST— gahhHhHh it’s to die for best romance we’ve done yet I think. EHEHEHHEE Hehehhehehe (also please do not focus on Callum’s outfit idk how to draw men’s clothes okay)

To the theatre, regarding treasure: I suppose this is to you; who else would I be writing for? But it isn’t about you. It’s about something I’ve found. Something I’ve been looking for for so long that when I finally found it I nearly missed it. It’s about treasure. It’s about the years and tears That I’ve spent looking for this treasure within your walls. It’s about the treasure that you had, but kept just out of my reach. And it’s about the treasure I found today. The family. The people. Isn’t it wondrous? Isn’t it beautiful? Look at it! I found it. I actually found it. I’ve been looking for so long I’d started to think that the treasure I sought didn’t exist. But it does. It does. It exists and I found it and… And it’s being kept just out of reach again. I can see it, now, and for a single magical moment my fingers brushed against the gold coins, the shining jewels, the riches I’d long imagined. And they were better than I could have hoped for. Brighter. Lovlier. Magical. They were everything I’ve always looked for behind your curtains. And yet, My fingers slipped off, And I realized; These are riches I will never possess. This is a treasure I can never keep. And it hurt, Because I knew, That when it ended, I would be alone again. Alone with your curtains and your shadows and your monsters and your beauty and my failures and all of it. And that’s a place I never wanted to be again. But I’ll be there. So I guess, I was wondering. Now that I know that this treasure Really exists, And that I Can feel it, Touch it Find it Love it Build it, Could you, Maybe, Show me yours? Show me where it is? And let me feel it, even for a few moments? Because this treasure Is keeping me alive. It is water from a fountain of youth, And without it I will surely perish. So… Can I have some? Please? Stars. It’s real. Rue

The people in Costco must have been terrified when they saw me sprinting down the aisle, two conditioner bottles under my arms like guns, my huge coat flaring behind me, while blasting Let It Go into my earbuds. It’s so fun being strange.

The Way of Kings/Words of Radiance spoilers, I guess:

Idk why, but it's hard to feel calm- Like I just feel a little over stimulated and was hyperventilating for a bit, I was also a bit shaky and still am a little. Having some chocolate helped, but idk what to do- I don't know what's wrong- Nothing is really out of the ordinary. I guess I've been a little stressed about how long it takes for me to get school done, but I've been coming up with solutions and know that I can really just take my time. In writing this, I'm starting to guess that it's my subconscious freaking out about school. I'm just trying to breath and do things that make me calm. It's so weird... I've turned on the clone wars and now I think I'm better for the most part.

Ookla Season Cometh! Ookla Season is one of our most venerated traditions here on 17th Shard. To honor the birthday of Peter Ahlstrom, Brandon Sanderson's assistant, we change our names to "Ookla the [Epithet]" on his birthday, November 26th. Most people change back after a week, but Ookla Season doesn't officially end until Koloss Head-Munching Day (Brandon Sanderson's birthday) in December. So, yeah. Ookla season! Hopefully you won't be as confused as I was my first time around.

"The most important words a man can say are 'I will do better'. "They are not the most important words any man can say. But I am a man and they are the words I needed to say." Guys, I think I have a new mantra.

Okay, so today in sacrament meeting we had a high council member give a talk. At one point in it, he compared the church to the island of misfit toys, from Rudolph the red-nosed reindeer. This is kind of a silly comparison, at least for most people… But. I was just in Rudolph the red nosed reindeer, playing a misfit toy. And since I was playing the part, I’ve had to make a silly cartoon into something a lot more…human, I guess. Anyway, that talk really struck me so I’m going to monologue about it in case anyone else needs to hear this today. To those who don’t know, the island of misfit toys is where all the toys that “no little girl or boy loves” go. So there’s a spotted elephant, a plane that can’t take off, a bird that swims, and so forth. They’re all misfits. “Why can’t I fit in” is their eternal question. Some of them are bitter or angry, but most of them are just sad. They want so badly to be a part of something they’ve spent their entire existence’s dreaming about, and yet they know they’ll never belong. But they hold onto a hope. A hope that someday, someone will take them to a place where they are loved. Where they are enough, despite all their flaws. Where they can finally be a part of all the joy of Christmas Day. The church isn’t perfect, and neither are the people within it. And sometimes it takes years of lonely disappointments, but Christ lives. Isn’t that wonderful? He lives. And His grace can make up for our weaknesses. He lives and through Him, we will too. We can get off the metaphorical island; we aren’t stuck. “There’s always tomorrow for dreams to come true. Tomorrow is not far away.”

…..Thaidybear look what I got my hands on @Thaidakar the Ghostblood

Happy Thanksgiving you guys! im so grateful for all of you and the love and support you offer everybody here. This is an incredible community, and I’m so lucky to be part of it. LOVE YOU GUYSSSSS!!!

Oh my— Y’all’s are going to make me cry, you’re all so amazing. Everything you said reflects back to you guys too!! Aaahhh!! Seriously, thank you all so much. This came at a time when I...really needed that. You're all angels, even if you don't know it. @[Redacted], what a wonderful idea! You’re so fun to RP with, and you write death scenes so well! You also make a terrifying shardchicken @The Wandering Wizard, my brother if I had the words to say what a wonderful human being you are I would. But words seem to slip away and fail to be what I need them to be. @Ancient Elantrian, now that I’ve met you I can confirm that you’re definitely an AI who wants to take over the world (but a fun one). @Ravenclawjedi42, your characters are also awesome. Especially the ones named Bob. @shortcake (who is actually not short), you’re funny tooo, you’re so fun to talk with!! @Cash67 (who is also unfortunately tall), you’re great, and your characters are too! I’m excited to meet you tomorrow! @Kajsa :) AAAAHHHH I LOVE YOU SO MUCH MY TWIN!! You’re beautiful and talented and I absolutely love all your writing!! And your singing!! @Just-A-Stick, you’re so fun!! I love how much you love Hamilton, and your poems are beautiful too! @Lotus Blossom Aaaaahhh I don’t even know how to say thank you in one short paragraph! You write characters beautifully and emotionally and you’re such an amazing person!! @InfiniteInsanity, you’re so amazing and talented! I love to see your poetry and just see you around wherever you happen to be @Silver Phantom, you’re old and tall and have an EPIC dragonsteel costume! It’ll be fun to meet you tomorrow! @Labyrinth aaaaahhh haha thanks Alphy…I fear you too you’re so fun to hang around with! @SmilingPanda19, aaaaahhh Panda you’re one of my absolute besties and that’s all I even know how to say. You’re incredible. @Thaidakar the Ghostblood, Thaidybearrrrr I’m not a nerd!!! You are though, and incredibly smart and funny. And you always have the words to say when things get tough @Scars of Hathsin, thank you so much!! You’re also so fun, it’s too bad we have such different time zones! @S. Stormy, you’re so fun too!! And you’re still Shallan in my head, and probably always will be. Les Mis is beautiful. ASHCOWNCJADKOEMDNCIWMDJDISNXB I love you all so much…ah you guys are all so amazing, and the people who aren’t here too.

It's my shardiversary!!! I'm not super active anymore (which is probably for the best, life is very stressful at the moment) but I want to take a moment to be sentimental. This was the first online community I ever interacted with, and in retrospect I couldn't have chosen a better one. I was a lonely kid still figuring out how the internet worked. I was cringe, awkward (still am tbh!) and possibly overshared a bit at times, and I'm so lucky that the people here were lovely and kind to me. I genuinely believe that having such a great bunch of people to talk to has made me a better person. I love every single person on here (even if we only interacted once or not at all, I STILL LOVE YOU). And especially our wonderful mods! You're awesome, and I truly appreciate all the effort you put into making this site a good place to be. Here's to many more years!

Blood in covered hands, The killer, a Knight by birth: To die she goes. She dies To birth by night a killer, The hands covered in blood. - Ketek written by Callar, to commemorate the passing of Taliat and the end of the threat of the traitors MR66 is over! Devotary of Spontaneity (Taliat) self-immolated, but was also executed and killed. She was a Traitorous Knight Elsecaller of the Fifth Ideal! The LOYAL KNIGHTS RADIANT are victorious. Links: Player List: Reduced GM thoughts because the last few days have been a bit of a mess: 1. I don't regret the balance, significantly. Village had a lot of firepower, especially late-game, but it was justified considering Devo jumped from Second to Fifth Ideal in one cycle and all the other elims had opportunities to do similarly. And there was a funny PtV which was there for her even with the way things shook out mechanically. More specific distro thoughts are in dead doc, but the only choice I really regret was Village Skybreaker 2. I feel that with the way the game went, the village could have been fine with an Elsecaller or even a DB of their own, considering how much protection power I loaded onto the elim team. But the roleblock and kill potential made it a little nasty - I thought people would read evil into that power combination but good job on y'all for not making assumptions. 2. Action system was a bit of a mess. Having the stacking of 4LW>Abrasion>Tension>Gravitation/Illumination/Transformation/4SW before ordinary people even get to take actions was a little head-wrenching. That said, I think it still worked, with Tension being unexpectedly helpful late-game. Turns out that's what happens when you don't brutally slaughter Smokers Take that, all those who derided Bondsmiths and Stonewards! 3. Both teams fought well and are strong and wise and I am very proud of them. 4. If you need a pinch-hitter for RL reasons, please tell your GM sooner rather than later. We'll get it done (as evidenced by my airlifting Aman in the middle of C1 so y'all could kill him ). And if we don't have one and you can't keep up with the game, don't overburden yourself. Talk to the IM or GM briefly and then dip. We'll sort out what needs to be done. Take care of yourselves first. 5. I'd love to rerun this with some minor fixes (changing a few Knight-specific Ideal progressions (RIP Bondsmiths), cooler 4th ideal powers for some roles (thinking Willshaper and Elsecaller in particular)). Would love your thoughts on how you as players felt the Ideal system worked and whether you felt incentivised to keep progressing. 6. Sorry for being more absent as a GM than I usually am. Would have loved to engage more with all your wonderful RP and plotting but sadly RL hit me hard unexpectedly and it was really all I could do to keep the show going. Thank you all for playing. See/murder you in the next one

I've been doing some data analysis on the mighty spreadsheet of past SE games. I think there are takeaways. I've analyzed a total of 158 V/E games from the past decade: First of all, let's get it out of the way and talk about player count. It likely doesn't surprise you to know that the average player counts of games have been clearly declining over the years: You really don't need a fancy graph to tell you that, just open any 5 random games from page 1 of the subforum and any 5 random games from pages 2 or 3 and you can see it clearly enough for yourself. But just in case you wanted a fancy graph with hard numbers in it, now you have one. I think the declining player counts is a bit of a shame, and I'll have more to say about the whys and wherefores later. But whatever you decide to think about it, the fact is what it is, and we'd best plan for it. Recent pushes to create games that accomodate lower player counts are entirely justified. The average player count also varies considerably based on the type of game: This is as it should be. It's part of why we have the different categories in the first place. There isn't really much to say here except that the categories are working as intended, so, that's cool. While our player counts have declined, I want to stress that I don't actually think player engagement has declined. If anything, it's actually increased. The number of posts-per-game has basically held steady, which is actually fairly remarkable. We've been posting just as much with significantly fewer players. Likewise, the number of inactivity filter kills has if anything slightly trended downwards. Which, if I'm being quite honest, was not what I expected to see, but it's a pleasant surprise. So, in conclusion, our playerbase is shrinking, but those who are left aren't becoming any less active on average. This is the part where we take a brief intermission from cold hard mostly objective numbers and I take a bit of time to talk exclusively about my opinions on the declining player count issue. My sense is that we aren't losing old players any faster, what's happening is we're drawing in new players to replace them more slowly. My sense is that a lot of the more recent new players came from off-site or had RL connections to existing players. That is to say, we've gotten fewer newcomers from the forum at large. I believe there are two reasons for this: The SE community has grown more insular. Fewer SE players are active in other parts of the forum. I can at least say that this is anecdotally true of myself - I'm nowhere near as active in other parts of the site as I used to be. IIRC, I originally found SE by following a link in somebody's signature, so (anecdotally again) I think this impacts our ability to draw in new players at least somewhat. The 17th Shard Forum as a whole isn't growing as much these days, not just the SE subforum. A lot more people actively use the 17th Shard Discord than the 17th Shard Forum, and they are pretty mutually exclusive, as evidenced by the results of this survey. For various reasons that are complex and probably above my pay grade, Sanderson Elimination doesn't have a presence in the 17th Shard Discord. We do have our own SE Discord server, and it's quite a nice server in my opinion, but folks inside it are by definition already SE players so it isn't exactly bringing in new players. I don't really have an answer to the first point, since I have little interest in ramping up my own activity in other parts of the site at this time, and if I don't want to do anything about it then I won't expect anyone else to. The second point is something I feel potentially is in my wheelhouse. If all the young'uns these days are using Discord to socialize, the next step seems pretty simple: why don't we try running a game or two over Discord and see how it goes? It can't hurt to at least experiment with it. I've honestly been slightly interested in trying something along those lines for a while now, if it's something the folks of SE would be amenable to trying. Okay intermission over! Back to sacred numbers. In a different mafia community, in the wake of a game with remarkably low village engagement, I once heard a player say that being roleless makes it harder for players to feel invested in the game. Well, the explanation sounded plausible at least, and I don't know if they were right or wrong about their community. But I can conclude that they were probably wrong about my community: Apparently, the number of roles you hand out has just no correlation at all with overall player engagement. And honestly? That makes me really happy Apparently, players of Sanderson Elimination don't really feel like they need to have the spotlight to care about the game. And I think that's a very healthy approach to have in a team game! One of the many things that makes Sanderson Elimination a good time. The final thing I will say about activity and player counts is that getting more players to sign up does not necessarily mean getting more engaged players: One thing that I think we should not do in response to lower player counts is constantly beg for more players during signups. I get it, I really do. Right now, I have setups in the forge that I really, really, really want to have a good player turnout when I run them. I'm excited about the mechanics. I want to be able to actually use them all. I want people to enjoy them. I still dream of getting to run a 34+ player game But you can't conjure players out of thin air. If you try, what you will instead succeed in doing is convincing players who do not really have the time to play to sign up against their better initial judgement. People who are on the fence about signing up are generally on the fence for a legitimate reason. I will reiterate that I feel designing games to accomodate lower player counts is the best short-term response to our situation. It's not actually the worst thing. There are some games that I've really enjoyed playing that've had low player counts. Moving right along, we should talk about the number of elims. Conventional wisdom is that the appropriate number of elims in a game is about 25% of the total player count. I'd contend that the evidence suggests conventional wisdom is wrong. In fact, the average proportion of elims in SE games is about 22%. The exact proportions favored by GMs depends slightly on the total number of players, with smaller games tending to have a slightly larger proportion of elims: If 25% was really and truly the ideal proportion of elims for a balanced game, you might reasonably expect that our village win rates would be pretty good, since our elim team sizes are often less than 25%. Meanwhile, the average village win rate in SE is somewhat less positive: While the village has done better in some years than others, the win rate averaged over all time is only around 40%. The last two years of SE have been pretty close to that average. It's possible that the village just needs to get good. But we can only always work with what we have. I believe the fact that the village only wins 40% of the time means we should change something. If nothing else, a game that's closer to 50/50 is just plain more fun. Of course, a skilled GM can correct for unusually large or small elim teams in other ways, by altering the role distribution or mechanics of the game. But we should still aim for a good understanding of what the starting point should be. You can't nudge the distro to account for a larger than usual fraction of elims if you don't know what the usual fraction of elims ought to be. And for that matter, you can't nudge the distro at all if you're running a roleless game. For these reasons, it's important to have solid criteria for choosing the size of your elim team. Which begs the question what percent of elims should we be using, if we want things to be balanced? Using linear regression based on past games, I can predict that the right amount is 15%, but there simply isn't enough data for that prediction to be confident. (The light blue area shaded around the dark blue line is the confidence interval -- it's pretty large, which means it's not very clear where precisely the line should be drawn.) Conservatively, though, I can say that the right proportion of elims is probably something less than 20%. This is a very surprising result, I think. Aiming for 25% of players being elims is a pretty well-established guideline in SE. And an elim team that's only 15% of the total player count seems just really small to me. But several other things independently cast doubt on the 25% rule. For one, there's what got me started down this whole rabbit hole: after running thousands of mock SE games, my simulator is convinced that 25% is much too large a fraction of elims for an all vanilla game. Admittedly, my simulator is kinda jank, but it's yielded legitimate insights in the past. For two, there's just a bit of simple math you can do to estimate it. If 25% of all living players are elims, then in order to just get a tie, you need to average 1 elim killed per 3 villagers dead. Assuming no fancy roles, this means the village needs to successfully execute an elim 50% of the time (over 2 cycles you'd expect 1 elim and 1 villager to get exed on average, meanwhile 2 villagers would be elim killed, for a grand total of 1 elim dead to 3 villagers dead). Anything worse than that and the village is going to run out of players before the elims. The thing is, a 50% hit rate is insanely good. Our actual hit rate for executions is much worse than that. So, if there aren't any roles putting a finger on the scales, it's pretty clear that an elim team sized to 25% of the total player count is in fact pretty strongly elim-sided. So now that's 3 totally different methods of arriving at the conclusion that 25% is significantly too many elims. At this point, there isn't much I can do but just show my work and say what my findings are. Switching gears, the mechanical complexity of a game is surprisingly impactful. Earlier I established that the village has a lackluster overall win rate. But in really complex games, the village actually dominates a bit. This kind of makes sense, I think. Complex games tend to give more abilities to everyone, and everyone consists of more villagers than elims, so if you aren't careful you are going to tip the scales in the village's favor. It's easy to create mechsolving potential, or for power creep to accidentally nerf the standard elim powers. I think this is a good reminder to give the evil team some love in complex setups. It's also a case where 25% is probably absolutely a reasonable amount of elims to have. Apparently, the approximate complexity of your setup should be one of the main factors you take into account when deciding the size of your elim team. Complexity also seems to generally get more player engagement. (Although it goes without saying that players can get tired of complex setups if we run too many in a row. Complexity is wonderful and it can spice things up nicely but it's still possible to cook with too many spices.) Higher complexity increases player engagement during the game but it doesn't really get you any more players at signups. Or at least there are diminishing returns. At some point it's less a question of interest and more a question of availability. While complexity significantly improves village win rate, it doesn't have quite as pronounced of an effect on village voting: I suspect seekers are part of the reason why standard setups achieve the best accuracy. Basic setups likely contain no information roles, whereas more complex setups tend to make seekers unreliable or more nuanced somehow. Standard setups are the most likely to just contain straight alignment scanners. This also hints that the village is rather bad at catching elims without the help of info roles We're nearing the end I swear Have several graphs about voting accuracy. I find these results mildly fascinating. Villages that ultimately win still get the D1 vote wrong almost as much as villages that lose. The difference is in the next few cycles, winning villages have a much clearer pattern of improving with much lower variance, whereas losing villages just sort of flounder. Luck certainly plays a big part in these games but it's cool to see how at least in villages that won the benefits of learning and analyzing from previous cycles is something pretty clearly represented in the numbers. (Minor Disclaimer - Take the averages calculated at around cycle 12 and later with a grain of salt, because there's like probably only 4 games in the entire dataset that went on for more than 12 cycles so the sample size is miniscule at that point.) Conclusions: Our player counts have been going down, but our activity levels haven't been going down. In the short term, we should scale back to smaller games. The correct proportion of elims in a game generally depends on the complexity of the setup. While 25% is a very reasonable starting point for many complex setups, most simple setups should have significantly fewer elims. Very probably under 20%, maybe even as low as 15%. I stayed up too late making all of these charts and should get some sleep >:P If you want to see my code and even more graphs that didn't make the cut, I've made it all available here. You should be able to actually run the code and reproduce my results if you have much knowhow in that direction and of course if you have the interest, but let me know if you run into any difficulties doing it.

(I apologize for this in advance, but I had to put words somewhere, and this is all I could think to do) Finished: There are no words. Isn’t that funny? I should have them. They are all I have. But they have broken, twisted, gotten lost along the way and now there is nothing left. It meant nothing. How can that be true? Their lives meant nothing. Their pain meant nothing. Their choices meant nothing. For all that they are in their own worlds, for the gods and goddesses they became, in the end the are nothing. And if they are nothing, Then do I mourn for nothing? Do my tears mean nothing at all? Does it matter how I feel they’ve changed me, since in a day I’ll return to the person I was? Isn’t it funny? Wonderfully funny. I ought to be laughing at this grand joke. There is no one to understand their pain, but I, and there is no one to understand mine but them. And they are gone. I could do nothing for them and in the end they can do nothing for me. Why do I mourn the monsters? Why do I weep for the murderers? Why do I care for the destroyers? Why do I love the ones that will only leave me broken? It is finished. It is done. It is ended. How dare it be? How dare they leave me to live alone? Alone. Alone. Alone. Alone. Death is lighter than a feather, duty heavier than a mountain. And oh, it is heavy. It presses down, tonight. The knowledge. The knowledge of a moment where all is new, all is reborn, and there is no one to understand. No one to care. No one to notice. No one who will not mock me for the weakness of daring to try to change because of a few pretty words. No one who could possibly know the search for home and the dark, desperate, twisted place where I found it and lost it in a heartbeat. No one who could ever imagine the peace that comes from seeing their pain. My words are failing me; even I cannot comprehend the chaos that tears my heart to shreds. Alone, alone, alone. The tears should not flow so easily. The pain should not cut so sharply. The wishes should not shine so clearly. How can I wish for something so terrible? Why do I find home surrounded by the hopeless? In the morning, will it matter? Will I remember the pain? Or will I laugh, And make fun of a world that has shattered my heart and bound it up with gentle love? There is nothing I could say tonight that will make my betrayal tomorrow hurt them less. I dare not think of the person I will be when I awake tomorrow. I cannot stand to be the person I am now. How can I possibly make anyone understand? I can’t. There is no possible way. The words are nothing. And I am empty. And somehow I am not just lonely, But utterly alone. My head is always in the clouds And suddenly there’s been a deadly storm. And no one below can feel the lightning running through my bones. And no one can see the tears that fall for the deaths of those who never lived. And no one will ever know the ache in my heart as the rain cuts into exposed skin. And no one can will ever see a change because I am too weak to let this shattered heart heal into something better. Oh, cursed world. Let me go. Let me live in a fiction. Let it break me. And then let me stay there. And let that world bring me the comfort that this one never has. And let that world teach me to grow in a way that I never have in this one. And let that fiction guide me to the truth. And please, World, Let me stay there So that I will never be lonely.

guys GUYS I GOT INTO BYU IDAHO AAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHSHAHAHA I GOT IN I DID IT

I am dying of laughter right now! My cat fell asleep across my lap and just started snoring! She is SO funny!

I’m sure everybody who interacted with Haly on the Insanity Clinic/Tower of Ghengi knows who Mitis is. For reference, she’s a badass pirate with a cool ship and a big reputation I drew her over the course of these past few days

Made it.

I’ve been relating to Natalie Jane’s song too much. Intrusive Thoughts is just screaming me. You know. One of my big life goals is to fall in love. When I was little I imagined my future as my career, my home, but even more I imagined someone’s hand holding mine beside me. I don’t want them holding me, pulling me along, or pulling me back. I can do everything on my own, but I want them there with me. I know I’m young. I just don’t know. I see so many people in love or feeling loved and I can’t tell if… I am feeling that. It scares me. Am I incapable of love? Am I unlovable? I don’t know anymore. I have this one guy in another state. He is just incredible and he wrote me a love letter two years ago right after I moved away and I unintentionally rejected him. About a month ago I messaged him and dropped major hints that I liked him, regretting my decision from before. But he has another girl. He’s got someone else. I…I told myself it was okay. It’s been two years, I can’t expect someone to wait that long. But still… there was part of me that hoped he waited for me… I know I have a lot of time but… this is big for me. I’m just scared. I’m so so scared. About a lot of things. My friends and family always compliment me on my confidence, outgoingness, and mindfulness, but really I’m terribly insecure about everything, I’m scared to even talk to someone I might like, and I’m mindless I feel empty and alone. I know all those things aren’t true but gosh do they feel like it. Truth is hard. The truth is really hard. And I’m a big internal scaredy cat. Externally I’m a dumpster fire, but internally I’m such a coward. I have a fire in me. I know this. But I also have a tendency to extinguish it for fear of it getting out of control. I don’t know anymore. I just don’t. this started just saying I liked Natalie’s Jane song and it spiraled. Sorry.

An SU in three parts. (And, perhaps, a sneaky fourth bit) First, as some of you might know, I was sick from the moment I woke up on Sunday morning. Thankfully, today I have gotten better. Hurray! Second, I rewatched the Revenge of the Sith during this time and, wow, I think it's way better than I originally thought it was. Such a good movie, though Natalie Portman's acting makes me want to barf, as does George's writing for any scene she's in except "So freedom dies, with thunderous applause." Third... ... Sorry @Edema Rue I have quit reading the Kingkiller Chronicles officially. I love Kvothe, I love Sim, I love Will, I love the Archives, I love Auri, I... don't love Denna, I love the music, I love Ambrose vs Kvothe stuff, I love it. It's the fact that I noticed in the past few days that I've been swearing in my head a lot. The books have a lot of swearing in them, unfortunately. As I don't want to get into that habit and there are a good bit of dirty jokes that I don't want in my life besides finding them absolutely hillarious and giggling at them. *sad sigh* Now... for that final fourth thing... I'm still deciding, but I might take a break from the Shard and my computer for a few days during Thanksgiving break. We'll see. I won't have much time to be on here during that anyways, but we'll see. Cya!

I thought it would be cool to have a thread where we give shoutouts to awesome people here, and who better to recognize first than @Edema Rue, who is one the funnest people on the shard! She has great ideas and always includes everyone. I remember when I was new to the shard she was one of the first people to reach out to me and made me feel like I could be a part of things. We appreciate everything you do Eddie! You are incredible! You bring so much joy to the people around you! She's very kind and will always joke or mess around with you. She just loves people and will readily adopt you as a sibling. She's always one of the first when someone is sad to offer them hugs and words. And she truly means them. She's always willing to listen and is an amazing friend and adopted sister - @The Wandering Wizard Eddie is a fun, kind person who is crazy in the best way possible! -@Ancient Elantrian Eddie is one of the friendliest people on the Shard, and an amazing writer, too, both in RPs and stories! She has the best, creepiest characters and profile pictures, and is just generally an awesome person. -@Ravenclawjedi42 Eddie is super kind, and just an overall really fun person. She's super funny, and says the silliest things all the time <33 -@shortcake Eddie is the perfect variety of chaotic. She’s welcoming and kind, and can breathe life into characters! -@Cash67 Eddie is my twin, and if you mess with her, I will punch you in the face. D:< * flexes biceps * Seriously though, Eddie is not only kind and supportive, but she’s also super fun and talented. I’m so glad to know her and be her friend. I LOVE YOU RUEEEE!!! <333 -@Kajsa :) I love Eddie. I haven't really known her for very long, but I think she was the first person to follow me, and made sure the mods didn't eat me for an accidental double posting XD. She is very kind and has a bunch of great RP characters. She’s a fun and happy individual, and likes good poetry. -@Just-A-Stick Oh my. You're telling me to describe one of the most incredible writers, supportive friends, and hilarious nerds on the shard. You're telling me to put in one small paragraph everything about a stunning personality who creates among the best characters. Well, I can't do it. Eddie, I love you so much and I am so happy that I got to GM with you!! You're such an amazing shardbuddy, and I can't wait for the Cytonic hunger games to start -@Lotus Blossom Eddie is an amazing friend, writer, and just an awesome person. She is always so willing to reach out and help any and everyone and it is honestly quite incredible. -@InfiniteInsanity Eddie is great. She is so friendly and is always willing to have a good discussion. I feel so lucky I get to meet her in person and I know she is going to be just as amazing in real life! -@Silver Phantom Eddie is great because she’s him, she’s what I’m talking about, she’s an absolute beast, cuz she’s the man, she’s that guy, she’s just too good, you’re too little, she’s the sound of a perfect dap up. They say Chuck Norris never loses, and that may be true. Eddie is like that, but she does lose one thing. The memory of how she’s gonna cook you. One day she’ll smoke you, the other day she’ll grill you, the next day she’ll roast you, and next week she’ll flambé you. Fear Eddie. -@Labyrinth Eddie is literally on my favorite human beings list. -@SmilingPanda19 Eddie's sweet and tries to help people. She likes to nerd out about stuff, and then firmly deny that she is one. She's a wonderful writer. Eddie is the guy. - @Thaidakar the Ghostblood Eddie is a really great person, and is nice overall and is always helpful, supportive, and funny. She also has some of the best writing and interesting characters on the Shard! -@Scars of Hathsin Eddie is so fun! She loves Les Mis which is always points in anyone's favor to me, but she doesn't need more points in her favor cuz she already has a bunch even without Les Mis!! I don't interact with her or anyone a WHOLE bunch (sorry bout that), but when I do, I always do with a smile on my face. Eddie is a bucketful of fun and I'm so glad she exists! -@S. Stormy

I just wanted to point out something. In order for a man to be my future husband, he has to beat or be equal to my best friend (my ‘mama’) and I. (Platonic duh) Let me spell it out for you. My best friend: - Gives me her hoodies - gives me her rings and bracelets - says good morning and goodnight to me everyday - says she loves me every day - holds my hand every day on the bus because im deprived of physical attention - has lots of cute nicknames for me (Princess, baby girl, sweetpea, etc) - loves and cares about all the same people I do - didn’t exactly ask for me, but still took on the challenge of all my emotions, mental craziness, and much more - treats me like I’m just a little kid in a way that makes me feel small because I feel like I have to be grown up 24/7 and grew up too fast - loves to read my writing and inspires it - tells me when she needs to leave or go somewhere so I’m not left panicking - kisses me on my head when I need it - holds me when I’m stressed - she can just tell when I’m upset even though I’m really good at hiding it - never yells or screams at me unexpectedly or unnecessarily - thinks all my weird quirks are cute and lovable (There’s a list…) - helps me love myself - tells me I’m beautiful even if I refuse to believe it - laughs with me when I laugh, cries with me when I cry, is somehow always right beside me even when she isn’t there - understanding that I’m not perfect and feel like I have to be - let’s me take care of her despite her grumbling - shows her love to me by taking care of me and I show my love to her by trusting her and letting her - struggles to allow someone to help (due to trauma) but understands that I try - understands all my fears (claustrophobia, fear of railroad tracks, fear of disappointment, fear of being alone, etc.) - many many many more reasons why I love her so so much, to the moon and back, to pieces, times a million, and more than she could ever know My future husband better use my best friend as a ROLE MODEL because I do not know how I stumbled across her two years ago. I truly feel like God brought her to me for this time if my life to be this person. I am terrified for my senior year because she will be gone to college, but I know God has a plan. I know there is a reason we happened upon each other and immediately clicked. We didn’t exactly ask to find each other, we didn’t go looking, but we did somehow, by the miracle of God, find each other. She has been such a blessing in my life and I needed to tell someone that. Thank you.

So, some news. Beginning on Sunday around 2pm PST, I will be off the Shard for about 4 weeks. As those of you who have seen my recent SUs may have gathered, my mental health situation isn't really improving. I'm fact, it's been worsening. This week, I was mostly unable to get to school, and I've overall been in a bad place, even sometimes in a dangerous one. For this reason, I'm going to go into a residential care facility. I've heard a lot of good things about it, and I hope it'll help me more than what I've been able to do at home. It does mean, unfortunately, that my internet access will be extremely limited to none. It should be just about four weeks, though extensions are possible depending on how the care goes. I'm a little nervous, and definitely not thrilled about being away from you all for so long, but it should be for the best. As for the RP situation, I have a plan for the Clinic, so that should be fine. I'm not really sure what to do with the few others, though I think the Threnodite Hunger Games are almost over (sorry, @DefiantAllomancer). So... yeah. I'll miss you all, but hopefully see you in not too long. I'll still be on plenty for the rest of today, as well as tomorrow and Sunday morning.

Open your mouth. Now close it around your prize. Salty, almost too salty, but not quite. Greasy enough that you can feel it running down your chin, but the good kind of grease. The kind that adds flavor. Some parts are perfectly crunchy, not so much that it’s uncomfortable, but just enough that you have something to chew. Other parts dissolve as soon as they touch your tongue, crumbling into nothing but glorious flavor. The result is perfection. A mix of everything food should be. All the differences twisted into a perfect little package. I love bacon.

today is a tired day i have a headache i have a fever i have a cough i have negative amounts of energy i have had a latin test i have had a full day of back-to-back classes i have had an hour and a half of choreography i have had an hour of learning new vocal pieces to sing i have had an hour of blocking on stage i am tired i am sick i stayed up way too late last night studying i have no energy i have an english sonnet recitation tomorrow i have a math quiz tomorrow i have to say goodbye to my grandparents who are leaving back to Turkey and who i will not see for another 6 months i have to go to a piano lesson i have to memorize my piano piece 2 minutes before the lesson i have to pretend like i practiced i have to pretend like i'm not a mess when i really am a mess i am a mess

So I like to write parody songs, normally for wheel of time, but when I heard “I’m just Ken” from the Barbie movie, I couldn’t stop putting Shen’s name in instead, so I had to write the whole thing. I don’t have the ability to record anything right now, so if anyone does and wants to make this song a reality, do itttttt. I’M JUST SHEN: Doesn't seem to matter what form I take Always been a slave, No one knows that I’m a spy, oh-oh, I I have passion surging in my veins, Rhythms in my brain, All my life I’ve been so dull, Treated like I was a chull [Chorus] 'Cause I'm just Shen No, I’ll never be one of them Am I just destined to pretend that I’m not who we all came here to face? I'm just Shen Where they see war I see my friends What will it take for them to see the man behind the scary carapace? [Verse 2] I wanna know what it’s like to be free, Let me out of this prison Is it at last?Am I deceived, or are those the rhythms? And is my moment finally here, to fulfill my mission? I'm no singer… [everstorm] Can you feel Parshen-ergy? Feels so real, Parshen-ergy Can you feel Parshen-ergy? Feels so real, Parshen-ergy [Chorus] I’m bridge four Nowhere felt like home before Found my family in the boards of bridges that we carried soaked in blood Im bridge four Where I saw hate, I found much more What will it take to end the war? Just put all of your dreams and hopes in us [Outro] I'm Rlain (He’s Bridge Four) And I'm back to fight the war So, hey, check me out, yeah, I'm Rlain My name's Rlain (He’s one of us) Gimme that fleshy hand to clutch Hey, Roshar, check me out, yeah, I’m Rlain Oh yeah, I'm Rlain I hope you at least get a kick out of this.

I know that you probably won’t ever see this, but I want to thank you for the books you have written, and also the impact you have made on people. You have saved lives. I met someone recently who planned to commit suicide. After connecting with characters, he gained the courage to mirror their decisions and get help. He now is happy. Maybe if someone who knows Brandon sees this they can pass it on. You really do make a difference.

To the theatre, regarding a web: You caught me. You wove a careful web Around my breaking heart. You promised you were holding me together But now I can't break free. You promised you were giving me a home But now I’m stuck in this prison you’ve created. Do you do it on purpose? Do you mean to offer me your treasure, to fill me with your dreams, to blind me with your lights? Do mean to promise it all to me, to us, only to raise your walls and mock us as we stand outside, unsure where else to turn? You leave us lost, and yet you won’t let us go. You keep us trapped between your walls and your web. You swear that we can make it inside the walls someday, and thus you tie one last thread to keep us from ever slipping through the holes in your weave. And with our hope your knot is finished with a flourish. But what if…what if it isn’t a trap? What if your web is only there because you want us inside your walls? I got a hand through. Every wall has cracks, and I found one in your heart. The rough edges scraped at my skin, trying to keep me out, perhaps, but I felt the sunlight on the other side. And suddenly your devious web was really a safety net. And suddenly everything was right. And suddenly I remembered why I love you. And suddenly I would do anything to get through that wall again. But… But is this my choice? Or am I a puppet, dancing to the pattern decreed by your web? Somehow, though, I don’t think I care. If being a puppet will bring me the bliss I felt within those walls… Then turn up the music and dance me to the ground; I’ll live within your web until it finally twists around my throat. Rue

Hey folks. Im gunna check my 70 notifs, just give me a bit. Sorry I haven’t been on much, I wasn’t finding the energy or willpower to do so. It’s been a… wavy? Yeah. Wavy last few days. Ups and downs, high tide, low tide, CRASH- There have been lots of tears, in school, out of school. There have been thoughts I’d rather not think about. I’ve gotten less sleep because I stay up, savoring a moment or a song to myself before I’m forced to wake up tomorrow. So many people making fun of me behind my back, not knowing how horribly self conscious and self aware I am. So many people I’m starting to hate. So much skepticism of even my family, my dearest friends, the people I love. My mental health dropping up and down and swinging rapidly over the week. Though there have been many lows, there were highs. I got to laugh with my friends for the first time in a while. Im starting to take better care of myself, trying to make myself feel more beautiful. I’m having really good conversations with my dad about the way the world works, he was always good at talking with me. Im going to be getting a lot of attention today from my best friend because she will be riding both buses home and she hasn’t done that in two weeks. So that’s a little life update. There’s probably more but I’m running on 5 and 1/2 hours of sleep so I’m not really sure what. Anyways, hope everyone’s doing okay.

133 pages into Yumi. i… need time to process. spoiler period for this book ends jan 1st so no spoilers but a lot is happening very quickly and i have too many questions and very little answers i missed this feeling of reading a new book.

Above the Storm: Break me. Please. I want you to break me. I want to shatter into millions of shards that will stab into you and never come out, leaving you constantly bleeding. Rip me apart. Tear me into pieces. Make me hurt. Make me scream until my voice breaks with me, until my heart can’t bare to beat even one more time, until I desperately claw out my own eyes because that will hurt less, until I am begging you to stop with every last breath I have. Crush my spirit until there’s nothing left. Or so you will think. Tear at my skin until I am nothing but a bloody pile of meat. Or so you will think. Stab at my heart until it can’t remember the meaning of the word ‘love’. Or so you will think. Destroy my hope until even without you, I would break myself. Or so you will think. Break me. Crush me. Shatter me. Destroy me. End me. Go on. Do it. You can’t. Not now. You are a storm. You tear at the very stones of the earth, rip trees from their roots, crush shelters into coffins. You cannot be stopped. You cannot be beat. You cannot be broken. You cannot be outwitted. But your winds only blow so far, And your rains must fall from somewhere. And I have risen above your lightning. Though you boil and blow and burn below, I am above you now. There is no shelter within your storm. But that’s all right. Because though you own the earth below and the sky between, though you are eternal, though you have the power to destroy me, I learned to fly. And so I flew. I rose like an eagle; I let your winds carry me above the clouds. And up here, Your storm cannot reach me. Your winds cannot claim me. Your rains cannot freeze me. It won’t last forever; Already, my wings grow tired. The fear returns and I know that as you broke me before so you will break me again. I say the fear returns…but that is not right, not right at all. It’s terror, and it’s overwhelming. I’m terrified to know that there is no escape. Terrified to know that you will hurt me again. And terrified to hurt. Terrified of the never ending hurt, the never ending terror, and the uselessness of it all because everyone else hurts the same as I do. Only, I’ve realized something now. Because while I sit here, Above the soft clouds, I am watching the sun rise. I am seeing the light that has hidden behind clouds for far too long. I am seeing a world of color and beauty and hope. So much hope. Isn’t it wonderful? The sun shines too bright to look at. It’s light touches everything, the silky clouds below and the dazzlingly pink sky above. It chases away the darkness, but even in the blackest parts of the sky are stars that shine with their own light. The moon, the blessed moon, the matriarch of the night, sits at the sky’s edge. She watches, ready to step in and fight against the darkness with her slender blade. But she doesn’t need to worry, not now, for the sun, the Son, is protecting this world with a gentle and warm light. A gentle and warm love. All this is here. And always has been, and always will be. And maybe I just haven’t had the strength to fly up and see it. And maybe it will be a long time before I find the strength again. And maybe my wings will soon be too torn and broken to fly up to meet the sun. But He is there. The Son is shining over a broken world. My strength is leaving; I fall; back through the angry clouds, back into the storm, back into the darkness, back into a place where there is no hope, no light, no warmth. No moon to guard me; no stars to guide me; no sun to greet me. Only you. You, the storm. Here to break me. But I understand now. Only the broken back can grow wings. Only the shattered heart can be mended with gold. Only the crushed spirit can befriend the moon. I think I understand, now. By spending a moment outside the storm, I have gained the strength to survive you. I have found the will to look up as you dig your icy claws into my heart and see the single gap in the clouds. I have found the strength to see the light where there should be none. I have found the power to mend each time you break me. So do it. Break me. Crush me. Shatter me. Destroy me. End me. Because I will stand back up. And every chance I get, I will rise above you. I will find the sun and I will bring its warmth back with me. I will fly. Break me. And as I cry out in pain, I will be growing a new set of wings.

“And then he was gone; and then I was alone. Back to the way that things were…” “And now I’m all alone again nowhere to turn no one to go to…” “An ogre always stays in the dark and all alone” “Isn’t it funny you believed that it was real…pretty funny.” “Wherever he is wandering, alone upon the earth. Let all our singing follow him and bring him comfort. “How do I tell him I wasn’t just okay? I was so much better. Something’s missing.” “And the rest of the world falls away…the world falls away. The world falls away. And it’s only us.” “There they sang of revolution…there it was they lit the flame…there they dreamed about tomorrow…and tomorrow never came…oh my friends my friends. Don’t ask me what my sacrifice was for…empty chairs at empty tables, where my friends will drink no more.” “When your feet don’t touch the ground, you can’t feel the things that hurt…and it’s safe. In this place. Above the clouds.” “All we see is sky, for forever we let the world pass by for forever…feels like we could go on for forever this way. Two friends on a perfect day.” “Were you once an outcast too? God help the outcasts, hungry from birth. Show them the mercy they won’t find on earth.” “There’s a kind of a sort of…cost. There’s a couple of things get…lost. There are bridges you’ve crossed you didn’t know you crossed until you’ve crossed…” “Cause what if everyone saw? What if everyone knew? Would they like what they saw? Or would they hate it too?” “Don’t wish, don’t start. Wishing only wounds the heart. I wasn’t born for the rose and pearl. He loves her so…I’m not that girl.” Musical theatre understands me

Me trying to stop my Alexa. My Alexa just keeps playing the revenge of the Sith soundtrack:

Today I got rather sick and I've been miserable. And well the thought has come, well what if this is my ending for now? It likely isn't and I'll recover just fine. But in contemplating it I found peace and comfort and joy for what I have had so far in this wonderful life. And I said a prayer and tried to sleep but I was too sick and my thoughts started arranging into a poem. And this is what I believe as a poem. And I hope this helps whoever is reading it, to turn to God for help or peace or whatever help you need. Peace

I GOT CAST IN MY HIGHSCHOOL'S WINTER MUSICAL!!! i have the opening line those auditions took so much energy out of me though. the choreography was rough.

A while back I said I might be done with the Shard. Well, this is my official statement of that. I had good times on here with y'all, but it's time for me to move on. I do have a tumblr, but since it's almost completely Formula One, I won't mention it here. Peace out, everyone.

I’m home from school sick today (don’t worry, I’ll be better by Dragonsteel OR ELSE) and it’s pouring rain outside. So, naturally, I made a cup of herbal tea and sat on the porch listening to musical-theatrey songs about rain, including It’s Raining on Prom Night, A Little Fall of Rain, and Dancing in the Rain. Recommendations are being tearfully and gratefully accepted. How are you all?

Sorry, I know I already posted an SU today, but… Ugh. Why is every choice I make the wrong one?