Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

Straw · July 7, 2020

Brightlord Faleast somehow managed to find himself out in a Highstorm, and was flung away by the winds. No one in your group knows if he survived, but it seems rather unlikely. What's really weird was how there wasn't even a Highstorm last night. Are localized Highstorms a thing?

Ashbringer has died! He was a Refugee.

GM Notes:

-The day will end on July 9th, at 1:00 PM EST.

-If you need a vote count, just @mention me and I'll give you one ASAP!

-PMs are closed!

-shanerockes has kindly subbed in for Fifth! Please welcome them to the game!

Player List:

Spoiler

@A Joe in the Bush

@Araris Valerian

~~Ashbringer~~ Refugee

@Devotary of Spontaneity

~~Sart~~ Refugee

~~StrikerEZ~~ Diagramist

@The Young Pyromancer

@The_Truthwatcher

@TJ Shade

~~Ventyl~~ Refugee Edgedancer

@xinoehp512

@Zillah

Edited July 10, 2020 by Straw

Mat · July 7, 2020

That was highly beneficial. Much thanks to the elim team for clearing Ash, and sorry to their dead soul that I suspected them.
Awesome pun Straw.

Now I’ll go rework my suspect list. Back later, but I’m going camping with no reception so I’ll be gone for about 24 hours starting in about 2

Edited July 7, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

|TJ| · July 7, 2020

Yeah, well this absolutely doesn't clear things up at all. Ashbringer had some amount of suspicion from Matrim and me. Why choose him for the kill?

On another topic everyone seems to have forgotten (or rightly did not bring it up), I have Squired successfully.

Edit: We need to consider the possibility that elim kill was role-blocked and Ash might have been the Division kill.

Edited July 7, 2020 by TJ Shade

Gears · July 7, 2020

18 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Edit: We need to consider the possibility that elim kill was role-blocked and Ash might have been the Division kill.

There were far better candidates for the Division kill, namely myself and Elbereth. I am very confused as to why someone would obliterate Ash. If a villager did Divide Ash into their component parts, do not claim.

Mat · July 7, 2020

On the other hand, if you roleblocked someone you thought was an elim, consider claiming as they could have submitted the elim kill.

Though think about it first. A lot.

|TJ| · July 7, 2020

Yeah, no I just realised there are a heck lot of possibilities. Someone could have made the kill target untargetable by Abrasion or removed the action by Tension. Someone could have swapped themselves with Ash. Yeah, it's better not to go down the rabbit hole and just assume it was elim kill till we have more information.

Gears · July 7, 2020

Concerning the lynch, the candidates appear to be Elbereth and myself. Are these the only candidates we shall be considering? Does anyone have any other suspicions?

**Orlok Tsubodai** · July 7, 2020

Apologies, all. The last 72 hours have been really difficult for me. I'm going to try to get back into the game, but am afraid I'm giving up on doing so as locke the tormented. I just can't bring myself to make the effort to do so at present.

Straw · July 7, 2020

1 minute ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Apologies, all. The last 72 hours have been really difficult for me. I'm going to try to get back into the game, but am afraid I'm giving up on doing so as locke the tormented. I just can't bring myself to make the effort to do so at present.

The new day has been posted, so you might want to post there instead so everyone will see it.

|TJ| · July 7, 2020

Will recalibrate my readings solely on the basis of D1 and D2 lynch votes. I'll can only conclude with a pool of suspects after that.

Mat · July 7, 2020

Going dark. Elbereth for now.

Araris Valerian · July 7, 2020

Here's a summary of all Gears's posts this game (minus a couple that were about 2 lines I deemed irrelevant):

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I will now rank Surges in the category they fall under.

Action manipulation: Adhesion, Transportation, Tension, Cohesion. Adhesion is superior to Transportation because redirecting the kill would not be very helpful, even if redirecting other actions would be fun. Tension is alright, but given that the action cancelled is random, it only works mildly well as protection. Cohesion seems incredibly risky unless you have absolute certainty on the actions the two of you are taking.

Vote manipulation: Transportation, Tension, Adhesion. It seems strictly better to move a vote than vanish a vote. Tension, which removes a vote on a player rather than a vote by a player, seems better as an option to protect someone from the lynch since people can change their votes.

Action protection: Gravitation, Abrasion. I hope this one is obvious. Gravitation encompasses Abrasion.

The following is some notes about Important Surges.

Really Important Surges: Progression [the only protection], Illumination [PMs], Gravitation [the best insurance we have]. All others seem unnecessary, though a case must be made for Division. A villager with a kill is helpful, though given the limited Stormlight and uncertainty involved in killing anyone, it seems significantly less amazing than the others in the RIS category.

Shenanigan Surges: Cohesion [switcheroo], Transportation [redirection]. Swapping identities seems quite fun, and it delves into Mind Games territory, since only the swqpper knows that the swap occurred, and so everyone else would see that their action affected someone else and assumed they were redirected because they couldn't know that everyone else was thinking the same thing. A redirect also has potential, especially since it's a random action.

Misc. Thoughts: There is a bit of RNG in this game, if people submit more than one action. If you want your action to go through, you might want to submit two so the odds of that action being the one that vamooses drops from 100% to 50%.

Pre-game analysis, nothing to see here.

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@Elbereth, I would appreciate it if you would provide some reasoning for your vote on TJ, who has done absolutely nothing except for warning those with Division and telling me that I stole xino's schtick.

EDIT: ninja'd by TJ. Side note, I don't have anything against lynching TJ, I just don't see why specifically TJ

Repeated theme here, Gears doesn't like early votes.

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On 7/1/2020 at 0:07 PM, Elbereth said:

@Gears why do you think redirecting the kill is less useful than blocking it?

Assuming the kill target and the redirector are both village, the odds that a redirected kill [in the early game[ hits an elim is low. In the late game, it might be better, if just to clear suspicions.

I think Gears misunderstood why a redirect could be helpful here.

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I believe I have accidentally both undervalued and overvalued Abrasion. As most of the actions that one would be targeted with are action manipulation, Abrasion does indirectly protect one's actions. However, as Division would almost certainly be boosted by Gravitation whilst Progression would not, you could be dooming yourself to a painful death to protect your actions. As such, Abrasion to protect oneself is not incredibly effective unless it is being used to protect Division or Progression. Of course, as Abrasion is typically paired with those Surges [sorry, squires], there is an incentive to use it and thus doom oneself to be struck down by your hubris.

More role analysis.

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The game has been going on for 2.5 hours. I see no point in voting until we at least have mild suspicions.

Okay, so while this isn't suspicious, I fundamentally disagree. If nobody votes, people can say whatever they want without actually meaning it. Any "mild suspicions" that preclude voting are just as random as these sorts of votes.

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  On 7/1/2020 at 0:44 PM, Elbereth said:

What about the value of catching an eliminator?  A roleblocker can be much less certain about such things.

Scenario 1: Person A has Transportation and Transports Person B's action onto Person C. Person C dies. This could be because Person B was the killer, or because Person C was slated to die anyways. Scenario 2: Person A has Adhesion and Adheres Person B's Action. There is no death. Someone else could have roleblocked the killer. There is no certainty in either scenario. There are also numerous other scenarios that could occur given these parameters. Transportation is only more valuable than the roleblock when one is certain that the only action the target is taking is a kill.

  On 7/1/2020 at 0:44 PM, Elbereth said:

How will we get mild suspicions if not by voting?  Also, I’ve got one mild suspicion already!

Talking. In my admittedly inexperienced opinion, voting on someone for no purpose is meaningless. I am not opposed to a lynch, but it should be an informed, intentional lynch [as much as a lynch can be C1]

Gears is underplaying the value of a failed/retargeted elim kill. Also, he kind of addresses my issue with the previous post, but I still disagee.

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On 7/1/2020 at 1:23 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I'm interested to see why Gears really thinks that people can't be so certain that when the roleblock/redirect someone and results in something that seems like they hit an elim, they should be cautious. Like, yes, you should always be cautious when dealing with that kind of thing. But the odds of the effects not being caused by your actions are really really slim. Seems like it could be a way to cover the elims in case that happens to them, like he's trying to sow paranoia in our minds and stuff. I really like all the role analysis he's been doing so far, but all of that is basically completely NAI as far as I can tell. I'm gonna go ahead and put a vote on Gears because I want to see what he has to say about this.

There are many manipulating Surges. The margin of error is incredibly high. I am not saying that the information gained by one's roleblock/redirect should be rejected on principle, merely taken with a healthy dose of salt. If one wishes to act upon such indications, be aware that the information will not always be accurate.

Gears clarify's his opinion from the previous post.

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Is it taboo to pre-write game analysis? If so, my apologies. I'm not really sure how to defend myself at the moment, as Striker cited my distaste for trust and you cited my pre-game analysis, both of which are not things I can easily rectify. I would also be amenable to lynching El.

This is in response to a vote from Orlok. The comment on defending himself actually strikes me as something that is village. Also, in general, I'd say that the best defense in SE is generally a good offense; find someone else that is more suspicious than yourself, and help lynch elims. Again, anything people say can be smoke and mirrors, but votes are what really count.

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Because being perfectly amenable to lynching El is vastly different from actually pushing El's lynch. It has been 4 hours. Not everyone's posted. I want to wait and see. If El continues on this path of strange esoteric dark magicks, then I will vote. For now, I will reserve my vote for a later time.

Continuation of the previous idea.

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  On 7/1/2020 at 2:23 PM, Orlok Tsubodai said:

what value in waiting and seeing over posting and creating discussion? not like you can only vote once...

Your words are wise.

  On 7/1/2020 at 2:23 PM, Elbereth said:

Nothing will happen if you just wait and see though.  Vote me! See what people say about it! Discussion is your friend, if you're village, and votes cause so much more discussion and so much more productive discussion than just sitting around waiting for things to happen.

You have convinced me. Elbereth.

Gears has a change of heart and votes on Elbereth. I read this as mild village again.

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On 7/1/2020 at 2:54 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

The only way to submit two actions is to squire or spend both stormlight charges at once, so it's not usually worth it to do so. Also, is there a reason you didn't mention Transformation?

It seems unlikely that Gravitation would be used to ensure a kill unless there was a reason to believe the kill would be interfered with. Although I suppose an elim Windrunner might be assigned to the kill 2/3 nights in lieu of using other surges, so maybe Abrasion wouldn't help. The odds of being saved by Progression are pretty low unless you're a trusted villager though, so Abrasion is more likely to save you than hoping for Progression.

I didn't mention Transformation because a Knight Radiant with Abrasion would have Division [Dustbringer] or Progression [Edgedancer]. I admit that your statement is indeed true, however I do think that the odds of a kill being used with Gravitation is higher than you estimate. Surely ensuring the kill gets to the appropriate target is important?

Just more role discussion.

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On 7/1/2020 at 3:50 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

In your ranking surges by type post, you didn't mention Transformation, which is what I was referring to.

I was thinking the odds of the elim kill being used with Gravitation are at most 5/6, with an elim Windrunner and an elim squire with a 50% chance of getting Gravitation. The odds of Abrasion saving you would be at least 1/6, while the odds of being saved with Progression are lower than that. It is of course possible that the elims have multiple Radiants with Gravitation, but I don't think that's incredibly likely since the other order with that surge are Skybreakers.

Ah. Transformation is the only member of its set [scans] and thus would not be ranked. I concede the point concerning Abrasion, as it was simply an idle thought.

And still.

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On 7/2/2020 at 0:53 AM, The_Truthwatcher said:

Gears: This is almost exactly how they acted in QF45, except for the changed opinion on poke votes. However, that could be due to the increased length of the game.They were suspicious of Elbereth but did not want to vote. However, were later convinced by Elbereth, Orlok and Araris.

In QF45, voting was mandatory, and thus I wished to vote immediately so I wouldn't forget and invoke the wrath of the Game Masters [oh horror and terror]. In games without mandatory voting [which I think I prefer], I do not wish to vote immediately as it serves no purpose.

On 7/2/2020 at 4:18 AM, TJ Shade said:

Gears, why did you feel compelled to vote on Elbereth specifically? Just because someone asks you to vote on them, doesn't mean you should. As far as I know, she asked you to vote on her because you said you wouldn't be against lynching her, but your vote on her seems strictly based on Orlok's suspicion on her. Do you not have someone you suspect that you'd like to vote on? Besides, a vote on her doesn't provide us anything because any village will hesitate to lynch a discussion-driving playerin D1, and obviously if she's an elim, her teammates won't vote for her.

I must admit that I was mildly annoyed and allowed my emotions to negatively impact my decision making. I apologize. I still don't especially suspect Elbereth, so I'm going to read the many posts made whilst I languished in slumber and return with some thoughts.

Vote on El is removed.

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On 7/2/2020 at 10:34 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Is it a little excessive? Maybe. But did it spark some discussion and get people talking about me and Gears? Absolutely. And I think it was worth it. I do still think that Gears was being a bit too paranoid, though I’ll admit I was underestimating just how many redirects and roleblocks are probably in the game. I could see Gears being a villager, but I don’t know. Just something about how much he was pushing for us to be paranoid about the results of people’s actions just doesn’t sit right with me. I’ll be leaving my vote where it is for now, partially because of that and partially because I would rather not get lynched C1 again.

Please note that I am not saying that the information is automatically invalid, just that it should not be accepted as fact. And yes, I might be a tad bit paranoid, but what is worse: Trusting something that fails or not trusting something that works? I think the former. Others might think the latter. It is a matter of opinion.

Again, as a matter of principle, I disagree with Gears here. A random lynch has a ~20-25% chance of hitting an elim. Weirdness with the elim kill has a much higher chance to result in a proper lynch.

I'll also note that up to this point, Elbereth has a village read on Gears, which I agree with (again, up to this point).

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A reads list and a poor summary. This summary is genuinely terrible. I am disappointed in my summarisation skills. I c

Matrim: Nothing he's said has really stood out to me. Reiterates no roleclaiming. Null read.

Ashbringer: Says that role analysis is more likely to be role indicative than alignment indicative, which I mildly agree with. Null read.

The_Truthwatcher: Put out a splendid summarisation that is obviously superior to my own. I don't remember them doing anything else. Null read.

TJ Shade: Jumps on Ashbringer's uncertainty about the number of players, which I do not understand. Null read. I don't understand his paranoia, but I do not believe an elim would risk drawing attention for a paranoid theory.

Elbereth: Votes TJ, switches to Ventyl, switches to Matrim. I dislike the votehopping, but I think this is simply a matter of differing opinions concerning votes. Null read

Striker: Votes on me for a differing opinion concerning roleblocks/redirects. Null read, with a dash of confusion concerning why a person would vote on someone over a dispute of roles.

Araris: Randomly votes on Ventyl. I mildly disagree with this, but from what I've gathered, this is Araris's playstyle, so I will leave it alone. Null read.

Devotary: Exists, hypothesized Surge/game interaction. Null read.

Ventyl: Roleclaims [partially] despite numerous warnings to the contrary. I dislike this, but I'm uncertain as to how this would benefit elim!Ventyl. Slight village read, if only because I cannot envision a universe in which an elim would roleclaim. Assuming Ventyl being truthful about the existence of their role, we have several potential courses of actions. 1. We lynch Ventyl to determine veracity, which is probably a bad idea, though I believe Ventyl is currently the one slated to be lynched. 2. We protect Ventyl from being utterly massacred by the elims, which is doomed to failure because of the limited Stormlight and incapability of protectors to coordinate, and this prevents any information from being gained by their death. 3. We ignore Ventyl, and if they don't die from the elim kill soon, we lynch them then, which is of course suspect to error but does allow for the opportunity not to lynch village!Ventyl. I say we go for options 1 or 3, preferably 3 because I don't suspect Ventyl.

Orlok: Doesn't like my pre-game analysis. I don't see how role analysis is affected by alignment. The roles are the roles, regardless of whether one is elim or village. Null read.

Sart: Votes Striker for the roleblock/redirect argument and successfully summarizes what I was attempting to argue in two succinct points. Thinks role analysis is AI, which I disagree with. Null read.

Mage: Also thinks role analysis is alignment indicative, which I still don't understand. Someone, please explain how that is the case. Null read.

Kynedath: Summarised the Matrim/Striker confusion nicely. Null read.

Eternum: Votes on Ventyl after stating that they think Ventyl is village. @Eternum, could you please elaborate on your descent into suspicion and paranoia? Null read because of a lack of information, but please respond.

Conclusion: Something must be done about Ventyl. As stated above, we can lynch Ventyl now, protect Ventyl, or spare Ventyl and lynch them if they don't die to the kill soon [or just not lynch them at all, but that seems like a poor choice]. I support the third option. I am currently amenable to lynching Striker [The vote on me seems suspect] and perhaps TJ [I don't particularly suspect TJ, but the tunnelling on Ash seems odd].

Also, I have no elim reads and only 1 village read. This is mildly concerning. Maybe I should go reread the thread.

Reads list from Gears. The only village read is on Ventyl (who Gears later helps lynch). Although, he seems to have a village read on TJ, and just doesn't say so clearly. No elim reads is pretty normal this early on. While the summary is nice, I find the whole thing somewhat NAI.

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On 7/2/2020 at 1:13 PM, TJ Shade said:

We also need to talk about Ventyl. He told with strong conviction that he expects to be killed tonight. So why do it? Why claim to the thread? It serves no purpose at all. It only created confusion. Why should we dismiss it because an elim would not want to draw attention to themself? Why would a villager draw the attention of elims? Let's see the advantages he gets by claiming if he's an elim.

- Possible protection from the village

- Escape from the lynch

- Trust of the villagers, possible info from the role-claim.

By the time we realize this is happening, there will be a lot of info for the elims.

So he has all the motive to do this as an elim, and quite no motive at all to do this as a villager. We shouldn't be so quick to dismiss his actions as too improbable for an elim.

This is true, which is why I noted that we might wish to refrain from lynching Ventyl for a few cycles and see if the elims kill them. If they do not [after a time interval we all agree upon, such as 1 or 2 cycles], we may wish to lynch them.

Again, Gears and others want an infolynch on Ventyl. Ventyl's plan was to expose elims with his reveal, but I think elims would have steered clear of possibly lynching a village KR, so this gives me another mild village read on Gears (and TJ).

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Posted Thursday at 02:17 PM (edited) · Report post

On 7/2/2020 at 2:14 PM, Illwei said:

I see things like this - which do seem logical - and my mind immediately sees that as suspicious because it feels like a way to misdirect

On the other hand I still want to think Ventyl is an elim because people seem to have arguments as to why they aren't that base around their strategy not being good for an elim- Not saying that they would be a bad elim, but that one might ..pretend? to be a bad elim to make people think that they...aren't? the elim?

I...I can't trust anything

The only incentive the elims have for not killing Ventyl given our plan is that they could force us to waste a lynch killing them. However, if we do not go with the plan, I'm of the opinion that we should lynch Ventyl now. Thus, we will end up lynching Ventyl in any circumstance where they do not die. There is no capacity for misdirect [that I can see, please inform me of any fallacies of logic].

EDIT: I forgot to check in with my fellow players about the viability of the plan. Players, your thoughts on holding off on a Ventyl lynch to see if the elims kill them for having a role and if they don't, lynch Ventyl.

More on Ventyl.

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On 7/2/2020 at 5:57 PM, Ventyl said:

I was going to Squire you for no other reason than that you were the first to take your vote off me IIRC. And anyone who doesn’t want to kill me is a friend in my book! Not much of a good reason, but I don’t really have any solid village reads right now, and El is the closest one. Also, you’re right, I probably will die this cycle no matter what happens, so maybe I shouldn’t squire. But if anyone wants me dead, considering Gravitation, even if I had a way to survive it wouldn’t matter. Just, I hope I don’t die. I’ll probably put a hold on my Squiring until I know I’m safe.

If the elims are trying to kill you, you will die tonight. If you squire someone, the odds of squiring a villager are in your favour. Therefore, you should probably squire someone or we'll lose a Knight Radiant for nothing. I would recommend squiring someone who's not inactive [so we can use the power] and not El, but use your best judgement.

Okay, here Gear's seems to assume that Ventyl is in fact village. While this is in line with his slight village read of Ventyl before, it still comes out as elimy to me.

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On 7/2/2020 at 6:14 PM, Ventyl said:

Are y’all trying to gain my favor so I’ll squire you?

No. I am simply telling you that if you do not squire someone and die, your role was worthless.

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On 7/2/2020 at 6:16 PM, Ventyl said:

It was supposed to be funny joke... but yeah I get it. I don’t necessarily think Elbereth is elim though.

The elims know you want to squire Elbereth. She will be their first target.

Both of these posts read to me as sincere (if wrong) village.

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People I am willing to lynch this cycle: Striker, TJ. I do not think the Striker lynch is going anywhere, but I'm going to sleep now, so we'll see in the morning. I'll be on before rollover, and I will vote then.

This is interesting, given that Gears follows through with maintaining a tie between the two.

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3 hours remain. The vote is split between Striker and TJ. Does anyone have any last minute defenses? @StrikerEZ @TJ Shade

This question feels pretty fake to me, elim read.

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On 7/3/2020 at 9:06 AM, Ventyl said:

My thought was that, there is probably at least one villager for each order. Maybe two for some like Willshaper and Bondsmith. Then the there are probably five or six elims. So probably two or three of them have roles. So that’s about 14-15/24 players with roles. Just a little bit over half, which in my mind is a majority. Another thing I’ll add is that I don’t think Squiring would be the main part of the game. I think it’s supposed to be more based around the Radiants themselves. I mean the Surge a squire gets is completely random, so if they got Abrasion instead of say, Divison, they wouldn’t really be that useful. A lot of the Surges aren’t that great without one of their pairings so, that’s my thought process on why I think a majority of the players are Radiants.

Also, welcome @xinoehp512 to the chaos that this game has become!

At best, I would assume 1 Knight per Order, and some of those would be elims. However, given the number of players, not all Knights might be represented, though I believe all Surges will be in game.

I am in favor of leaving Ventyl alive for tonight at least and maybe tomorrow if the squiring fails, though if Ventyl is an elim, they could lie and say it failed so we'll leave them alive, so we may just want to lynch them tomorrow. I don't care between TJ and Striker. @Straw, vote count?

More NAI role stuff. Also, I think what Gears says about not caring between TJ and Striker is false. He instead supports a 50% chance of each dying. Not caring at all wouldn't lend itself to a tie. Sort of dishonest, so mild elim read.

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I am in favor of leaving the tie between TJ and Striker in place. Any vote manipulation that comes into play will provide some insight.

Here's a clarification of the previous post. Also, I tend to disagree with the opinion that allowing the elims to use vote manipulation is good for the village. It's fairly standard for the elims to have a vote manipulation role.

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Striker. I have stated that I wish to maintain the tie. I will change it if someone breaks the tie.

Gears is a man of his word.

Okay, this is something of a monster post, so I'll cut it off soon and do a second one for C2. Before the outcome of the lynch, My overall read of Gears is village. I think some of my elim reads may be due to a vibe of overconfidence that Gears seems to have in his posts. Given that elims have more information that the start of the game than the village, that's why I read that behavior as elim, but I could be wrong.

The final lynch, pre-Gears last change, is 5-4 in favor of Striker (actually 3-4). Now, Gears had stated he wanted to enforce a tie earlier, so that's in line with what he actually does. The elims didn't use any vote manipulation, which suggests that either a) they don't have any, that the player with that role was inactive/forgot, or c) they didn't want to give themselves away, or d) TJ is also elim. I personally think that in scenario a, Gears is probably village, while in b, he is likely elim. I find c and d rather unlikely. So, based on just cycle 1, I'd probably say don't lynch as my verdict on Gears, pending the flip of an elim with vote manipulation. This is contrary to my vote last cycle, which goes to show that I should have done this sooner. Still, I think given the choice between Gears after writing this post, and Ventyl, I'd probably pick Ventyl. It's just that I feel largely responsible for Gears in particular being the counter train to Ventyl, which I see now probably shouldn't have happened.

Edited July 7, 2020 by Araris Valerian

**Orlok Tsubodai** · July 7, 2020

4 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Apologies, all. The last 72 hours have been really difficult for me. I'm going to try to get back into the game, but am afraid I'm giving up on doing so as locke the tormented. I just can't bring myself to make the effort to do so at present.

4 hours ago, Straw said:

The new day has been posted, so you might want to post there instead so everyone will see it.

Straw correctly identifies I should have posted this here.

shanerockes · July 8, 2020

Hi friends. I'm just checking in right now and I gotta go through a lot of backlog so I might have some read on some people and have a vote this cycle but we shall see.

Coffeecat · July 8, 2020

uhm...

sad for ash.

i hope none of the ash fell on me.

lord silberfarbenebrafreblis doesnt like to have his clothes dirty with crem, or ash

Gears · July 8, 2020

This has been a fairly quiet turn. 20 hours and only 12 replies. Other days had several pages by this time. I've reread the thread and concluded that I am terrible at reading people. Out of the two current lynch candidates [Elbereth and Gears], I'm voting for Elbereth because I am loath to vote for myself.

The Young Pyromancer · July 8, 2020

I don't see why you're suspect. Can someone please explain why they want to lynch gears?

Gears · July 8, 2020

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I don't see why you're suspect. Can someone please explain why they want to lynch gears?

@Matrim's Dice, why am I a target of suspicion? [I believe it was because of my vehement insistence that Ventyl was to be lynched, but some take that as a point in my favor as an elim would avoid vehemently targeting a villager.]

|TJ| · July 8, 2020

Here's a brief overview of the voting sequence in Day 1 chronologically followed by votes on prime lynch candidates in TJ - Striker - Ventyl - Gears (TSVG) order:

Elbereth votes on me. Random vote to promote discussion. NAI. 1-0-0-0.
Ventyl pokes Joe. N/A.
Araris stabs Ventyl. NAI for him. 1-0-1-0.
Elbereth retracts her vote off me and onto Ventyl, a V-V shift. She finds his understanding that RI are important suspicious. Hmm, sure I can see the village perspective that Ventyl could have been attempting to learn the roles of the village. Very mild village. 0-0-2-0.
Ventyl pseudo-claims.
Elbereth states she fails to understand why an elim would claim, and retracts her vote off Ventyl and onto Matrim as he was apprehensive about claiming to Ventyl. While I understand her retraction from village POV, her vote on Matrim? Not much. Especially when Matrim is basically agreeing with her. Could also be using the chance to back out the Ventyl lynch to avoid suspicion? Still the post seems very genuine. Very mild elim. 0-0-1-0.
Striker votes on Gears. Mentioned it several times, but the push is hard, while Gears is just warning us to be wary. To repeat myself, telling Gears caused paranoia seems excessive. Mild village on Gears. 0-0-1-1.
Orlok immediately follows Striker with a vote on Gears stating he rubs him wrong. I think elim!Orlok would know this would be suspicious, but I'm not exactly sure. Very mild elim on the assumption that Gears is village. 0-0-1-2.
Gears votes on Elbereth after being convinced that nothing will happen if people delay their votes. Unsure. NAI? 0-0-1-2.
Sart votes Striker. 0-1-1-2.
Matrim follows. Elim would not be so quick to bus after just one vote. Village on Matrim. 0-2-1-2. Is this the point the elims start to get a little worried about Striker?
I vote for Ashbringer. But also mention suspicion on Striker, both for his grav-kill question and for his vote on Gears. 0-2-1-2.
Gears retracted their vote on Elbereth after I asked why they did so. Admits his fault of being reactive. Mild village. 0-2-1-2.
Ventyl retracts his vote on Joe after Joe requested not to be killed until he was free.
Magestar finds fault in my suspicion on Ash and Striker. If Mage was an elim looking for alternate lynch candidates for Striker that was not Ventyl (because voting for Ventyl might have been suspicious if he ended up getting lynched), he could have voted for Gears. So we have two scenarios - Mage and Gears are elims together OR Mage is village genuinely suspecting me. I'm leaning towards the latter, and as such give mild village read. 1-2-1-2. Elims now have a potential mislynch candidate (or 2 depending on Gears' alignment).
Ventyl votes on me because he felt me chiding him for his [not Willshaper] reveal was an attempt to act village. 2-2-1-2. (V-E-V-?)
Eternum votes at this critical point on Ventyl. He starts with saying he has a village gut read on Ventyl, but by the time he finished his post, he isn't sure, and he votes on him. I.. don't know what to make of this honestly. More to come because I know he shifts his vote to me later. 2-2-2-2.
Elbereth votes on me as she preferred me to die over the others. While it should be suspicious. she also gave her reads in the post, most of which I agreed at the time except, of course, Ventyl, Matrim, and maybe Eternum, It's important to note she did read have a gut suspicion on Striker, but felt it was normal for her to feel that way about Striker in D1. She didn't point this out after Striker flipped elim, which makes me read her as village. Accompanied by posts that seem so genuine like this makes me want to lean village at this point: (3-2-2-2)

Quote

I'm not particularly interested in lynching anyone from my village lists today, but that applies especially to Striker (because he's just Like That D1 so I want to give him a bit of time) and Ventyl (bc I really don't think he's evil atm). I'm also against lynching Araris (because people suspect him for his playstyle far too often and I will defend him until and unless he does actually suspicious stuff), Illwei/Lahilt/Truthwatcher (because they're relatively new and trying to interact and I want to encourage that), or anyone who's said 'hello I'm here I'll post when I can' (ie Joe and Silber). Those are the people I'll actively defend.
Matrim retracts his vote off Striker citing confusion. Unsure. 3-1-2-2.
Gears votes on Striker as me and Striker are the alternate lynch candidates. He finds Striker's votes on his more suspicious. and he doesn't particularly suspect me. As Striker flipped elim, this makes Gears looks good. 3-2-2-2.
Araris changes his vote from Ventyl to Devotary. Mentions Devotary's neutrality. Mentions the possibility of elim!Striker if Devotary is evil. Could be backtracking from a Ventyl lynch but with his playstyle, no one would blame him if he did end up partaking in the said lynch. Mild-to-moderate village. 3-2-1-2.
Eternum returns stating he now has the strongest village read on Ventyl. He voted to see the train form, but did not give it enough time to build. This feels like he saw Ventyl claim a KR, and voted for him, then realized (or was told by teammates) partaking in the lynch would be suspicious, and hence he made the change. This opinion is heavily biased because I believe at least one of the players who voted on me are elims, and I feel it's Eternum (and maybe and/or Elbereth) over Araris. I forgot to tell he voted on me. Moderate elim. This vote also made me a clear front-runner in the lynch. 4-2-0-2.
Pyro votes Ventyl because he sees similarities between this game and LG66 in which Ventyl was an elim with him. Unsure. 4-2-1-2.
Pyro retracts after reasoning from Gears that it we had all decided to let Ventyl Squire in case he was telling the truth. Again, unsure. 4-2-0-2.
Matrim votes back on Striker, staying firm, no fearing suspicion, despite earlier confusion. Moderate-to-strong village. 4-3-0-2.
Araris votes on me as he prefers my lynch over Gears. No opinion on Striker? 5-3-0-2. At this point, there was 11 hrs left in the cycle, so I'd really like to deduce the elim's thoughts. Were they comfortable with a 2 vote lead over Striker? They could have easily added a vote or two to make sure I get lynched without drawing suspicion, as everyone was fine with lynching me. This makes me think there are/were 1-2 semi-actives in the elim team, at least in D1. 5-3-0-2.
I vote on Gears to save myself. I had missed Gears' vote on Striker in pt. 20. so in my mind, the count was (5-2-0-2). I preferred Gears' over Striker because I was basically convinced by the general consensus that my suspicion was unwarranted. 5-3-0-3.
Joe votes on Striker. As I said earlier, he could have pretended to be inactive, or even joined and found me suspicious, if he was an elim. Unless something ridiculous, like Striker not able to be active in the game and deliberately offering himself as the bus, I think Joe is clear. 5-4-0-3.
Mage moves his vote to Ventyl, as later claimed to see how I react. Right now, he claimed to decrease my lead and stir things up. Hmm, I'm not sure whether to read this as village or elim. On one hand, a villager might be curious to see what might happen, on the other hand an elim might see if they can somehow sneak out a lynch on Ventyl. But since Striker did not end up voting for Ventyl, I'm leaning village here. 4-4-1-3.
I am made aware of the correct vote count, and hence switch my vote to Striker to save myself. 4-5-1-2.
Lahilt votes Ventyl. Probably seeing as I promised to vote for Ventyl if there is more traction there. Unsure if it is an elim lynching Ventyl. 4-5-2-2.
I move my vote to Ventyl as promised. 4-4-3-2.
Ventyl retracts his vote on me, and shifts to Joe. 3-4-3-2.
Now is when Striker changes his vote from Gears to me (yes, the same post I mentioned 7 times). 4-4-3-1. Again, seems like a great opportunity to lynch Ventyl, but maybe elims were cautious or as I said earlier, inactive.
I change back to Striker to save myself. 4-5-2-1.
Gears retracts his vote on Striker. 4-4-2-1.

I meant this post to include analysis on those who didn't vote, and the reason they didn't as well as to bifurcate the player list into "willing to lynch" and "unwilling to lynch", but well, this seems long enough. I'll try to do one for Day 2, but I can't give assurances.

Basically, I get the feel that Gears is village. Really unsure about Elbereth. All her posts seem to scream "village" the only thing on the elim side of her is voting for me. I'd have to check through some previous games in which she's elim to see if she shows any fake concern towards the village, but again, not a guarantee. For now, leaning very very mild village. Biggest suspect is Eternum. As I believe either Eternum or Elbereth or both are elims who voted for me, I'd be happy to offer him as the alternate.

The Young Pyromancer · July 8, 2020

Nah, as 'Locky said, Elbereth's posts seem moderately sus here. Combined with your voting bit, I'm fine lynching Elbereth today.

Gears · July 8, 2020

It seems that an Elbereth lynch is the consensus, so I shall leave my vote there. If there is enough traction on the Eternum lynch, I might switch over, but I would prefer to lynch Elbereth first.

Magestar · July 8, 2020

Huh. So, I'm assuming we don't have any PM roles at this point. Either that, or they're inactive, which I guess isn't all that unlikely.

So, I promised analysis, and here it is. I've looked into Araris, Elbereth and Gears since they're the first three moderately active players on the list. I unfortunately don't have any real suspicions going into this besides TJ and a mild suspicion of Gears. I think having an Elim lynched D1 somehow threw me off a bit. Anyway, here goes nothing.

Araris -

Araris started the game by stab voting Ventyl. Ventyl's a confirmed villager now, but I don't think that says much one way or the other about Araris' alignment. He's been fairly helpful this game, although not quite as active as he was in LG66, IIRC. That might just be a function of this game overall being less active than LG66. It's interesting to note that Araris basically didn't interact with Striker at all while he was alive, other than to say he was ok with the Striker lynch and that Sart and Striker were unlikely to both be Elims which... well, he was right, and again I'm not entirely sure if that's indicative of anything.

Araris has given a lot of reads this game, something which I think isn't his usual playstyle as an Elim. I've only played with him once recently when he was a non-village role, but in that game he largely refrained from giving reads, and mostly voted without providing much reasoning. That gives me a hesitant village lean on him right off the bat - plus, his reads by and large have made sense to me. I've agreed with a few of them.

This last post of his kind of read as filler to me, and his tone seemed a bit off to me this game... overall, I'd say slight slight village lean, if only because of the last point I made about his reads.

Elbereth -

Elbereth has consistently given useful information to the village and promoted discussion in all of her posts. She doesn't have a lot of posts (Thank God, frankly this post is already going to be ridiculously long.) but after going through all of them I have a pretty solid village read on her. Her interactions with Striker specifically don't seem like they're on the same team - it's a lot of small and meaningless stuff, but El clarified a few things to Striker in-thread in a way that doesn't seem like distancing and makes more sense to do in a doc if they're both Elims.

Her voting patterns read pretty village to me. She read Striker as mild village towards the beginning of the cycle, but frankly so did TJ and a number of other people. This doesn't mean she's certainly not an Elim, but I don't think it's super indicative. I wasn't suspicious of Striker C1.

Knowing El, it's entirely possible she's an Elim and just fooling me, but I'm getting village vibes from her. If her posts were only asking questions and provoking discussion, I'd be more inclined to think she's an Elim, but she also gave reads and opinions. I'd love to hear more from her, actually. @Elbereth.

- Gears

Gears' first several posts of the game were role analysis. Normally I'd say this sort of behavior leans more Elim, but supposedly he wrote up the first one of these bits of analysis before the game began, so I don't really feel like they're terribly alignment indicative. Most of his early posts are either RP or some form of game analysis, with one request for El to explain her vote on TJ, which didn't have any reasoning attached to it. He does, however, note that he has nothing against lynching TJ. These posts are all very safe, but not giving me any more than a minor suspicious vibe. A lot of that could be just because Gears' style of posts are a little different from what I'm used to.

Notes on Gears' vote patterns - he doesn't seem to be in favor of voting early and often, as many people are. I don't think that's alignment indicative either. His first vote of the game was for El on El's advice, so I'm not really sure what to make of that. He later removes that vote because he didn't really suspect El that much? Just a little odd. Gears also didn't end up having a vote at the end of D1. He really kind of led the lynch on Ventyl, who turned village... I'm not sure what to make of that.

Gear's interactions with Striker - not particularly indicative of anything. There was a little bit of tension between the two of them, but not anything big enough that it couldn't have been early distancing.

I'm also noticing that Gears - and a number of other people - had Ventyl as a very strong village read early in the game? I'm just becoming more and more confused about why Ventyl was lynched. It's also interesting that Gears went from not trusting TJ and thinking they were suspicious, to leaning on TJ's analysis as reasoning for lynching Ventyl.

On 7/4/2020 at 4:21 PM, Gears said:

My alignment has no bearing on TJ's and Ventyl's. The converse is completely false because I have adamantly defended TJ and vilified Ventyl. As such, Ventyl and TJ should be lynched before myself. If Ventyl is a villager, we will lynch TJ. If TJ is a villager, we will lynch me. I don't know what you're planning to do if I flip village.

This post is interesting me. The scenario he suggests keeps Gears alive for quite a while, and also, in his scenario, gets rid of two villagers before even having a lynch on him. I also feel like a lot of Gears' posts about why we should trust them descend rather rapidly into IKYK territory, which bothers me a little.

Final notes - mild Elim read on Gears. Nothing conclusive, just that their posts seem a little off and nothing that would make me think they're village - and none of their defenses for themselves - seem like much more than IKYKs. Part of the problem is that a lot of his defenses are "an Elim wouldn't do what I did" which seems like something an Elim would say. I don't know if that makes sense, but it's giving me bad vibes.

Other notes... I think it's interesting that several players in the early phases of the game - Matrim and TJ specifically, and a couple others in passing - mentioned that it's hard to read Ventyl because of their playstyle and then that's basically what Ventyl ended up getting lynched for. I think at this point it's safe we also don't have any village kill roles, as well as any PM roles? As I'm writing it down that sounds far more unlikely. My guess is they're probably all just inactive, which is kind of sad. Or we have some very cautious kill roles. I also took a look at how Striker's posts really quick, and I'm marginally less suspicious of TJ because of how Striker interacted with him.

3 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Apologies, all. The last 72 hours have been really difficult for me. I'm going to try to get back into the game, but am afraid I'm giving up on doing so as locke the tormented. I just can't bring myself to make the effort to do so at present.

That's fine. Frankly I think I'll enjoy having regular Orlok around over Locke the Tormented.

I'll throw a vote on Silb for now, because while looking over the thread I realized that most (and I think all?) of their posts are not game related, and I think they've been active enough in on the shard to have time to contribute something.

This post took me way to long to write up. It's also kind of jumbled and I'm pretty sure I somehow lost parts of it while writing it, but I'm too tired to check over it. So here it is! Discuss! Bring some more activity to this overly quiet thread. I mean, it's day three. We can do better than one page.

Gears · July 8, 2020

13 minutes ago, Magestar said:

Final notes - mild Elim read on Gears. Nothing conclusive, just that their posts seem a little off and nothing that would make me think they're village - and none of their defenses for themselves - seem like much more than IKYKs. Part of the problem is that a lot of his defenses are "an Elim wouldn't do what I did" which seems like something an Elim would say. I don't know if that makes sense, but it's giving me bad vibes.

My defenses are IKYKs because that is the only way I could defend myself at the time. The only allegations laid against me were that I was tunnelling on Ventyl, and that is not something I can really defend against in a reasonable fashion. I couldn't very well terminate my pressure on Ventyl as retracting because of suspicion is an elim move.

The Young Pyromancer · July 8, 2020

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

It's also interesting that Gears went from not trusting TJ and thinking they were suspicious, to leaning on TJ's analysis as reasoning for lynching Ventyl.

Just because someone's suspicious doesn't mean they can't also be right.

And Gears is pretty village to me, as as TJ pointed out, the vote mattered a lot.

Mat · July 9, 2020

I cannot say how relieved I am there is only 1 page xD

I’ll multiquote in a bit, but for now, @Straw, vote count please.

Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

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