Araris Valerian

I’ll claim the title of Ghost of Nalthis Past, since I was on Nalthis every pseudocycle but never wrote into the docs. Definitely got swindled by both Striker and coco for my breaths, and never ended up with any investiture of my own.

If they keep failing to submit the NK, I guess it shouldn’t be too much of a problem.

That’s what I was missing. Kit Kat Qian. If we’ve figured out all the current elims then I’d guess the last one will probably just convert on the way out. Which is gonna make solving functionally impossible . But if not then they probably already used it.

Can someone explain Qian to me? I feel like I missed something somewhere.

Why does no kill mean there was a conversion? Back when I was asking for clarifications, the conversion didn’t take an action, which I’d assume means it doesn’t conflict with the NK. @The Unknown Medallion could you confirm? If this is right, I’d assume that the Elims are inactive to a large degree (not really new info, TBH).

Off the top of my head I’m thinking we exe in Kit Kat/Lettuce/xino today. I’ll need to go back and see if anything from any of them looks suspicious, but Kit Kat stood out with the Verdance thing I think.

I wasn't suspecting Hopper. I was trying to figure out if we had a second confirmed villager running around.

@Through the Living Hopper did you only ever submit a single scan order? Any particular reason why you didn’t attempt to scan a second time?

Hey, I’m voting for coco, and not for you. And honestly, I think v!coco would be pushing for your exe quite aggressively right now. I’m instead getting a vibe of “resigned to the inevitable” which is definitely an elim vibe at this stage of the game.

But your ability doesn’t give role info, just alignment. And since the scan comes before death the OOA, you should have two results. Yeah, yeah. I’m just a little frustrated because a lot of my reasons for suspecting Hoid line up with my suspicions of coco.

Why do these actions seem like they would line up pretty well with a meta-elim who is feeling out what the attitude toward a village win in the pseudogame will be? I'll have to go reread things, but my general impression is that folks came to a mild consensus early on that we should be killing pseudo-elims. Given the meta-elim bet, they could pretty much do anything in the pseudogame once that opinion began to solidify. So the later pseudocycles are somewhat irrelevant for solving the metagame, IMO.

Why?

That's curious, given that you are the largest suspect for the mole in question. If you're alive in the metagame then you can use PMs.

There could easily be multiple double-elims. But I'm reasonably confident that Hoid is one of them.

@The Unknown Medallion for the purposes of PMs, are folks still considered "alive" in the pseudogame even after it has ended? We have 12 players, and if the same numbers were used across games, 4 meta-elims left. With a conversion, we are really at 7-5, which means we're kinda hosed. We would need perfect executions every turn for the remainder of the game, which seems hard enough without a conversion taking place. @Through the Living Hopper Did you ever provide a list of the folks you scanned? At the very least, no more than one person from that list can be elim post-conversion. I'm going to tentatively disagree on Divergent, or at least on his vote switch being alignment indicative. I think the majority of vocal folks wanted to end the pspeudogame sooner rather than later, and it wouldn't make much sense for an elim to out themselves to achieve that inevitable end. Not to mention that it's likely there was enough investiture floating around to do a vote manip without switching votes in the thread. I'm currently fine with the coco exe, since I think there are multiple lines of evidence that support her as an elim. After that, I'd say I'm somewhat convinced Hoid is elim as well. That would fit as the pseudo-elim mole.

Okay, I agree with TJ’s point about Mippo. I’d encourage other folks worried about him to reread his first two posts in pseudocycle 3. And exeing Lettuce does seem to be the smart play here.

Which cycle was that? I'll go take a look.

I’d be fine with exeing Lettuce as well. She could be a meta-elim as well.

Do we know who they are?

I wasn’t a fan of his reaction to the initial situation with Verdance. Seems reasonable to get the meta-elims out of the pseudogame sooner rather than later.

Only somewhat? Also, @coco.pudding, TJ has been flipped as a meta-villager, so there isn’t really any reason to doubt what he’s saying.

Possibly a more fruitful approach would be to analyze the posts around when I claimed the scan on Verdance. That’s where I’m headed now. Edit: There are a few notable responses to my claim. Verdance himself was generally confused but made his own claim on the assumption I was being honest. I got a PM from Hoid asking for me to verify that I was joking and that we were all voting on Verdance because it was funny (note: I probably wouldn’t do something like this to someone I consider a newer player). Mippo and Kit Kat weirdly kinda ignored the whole thing. And after I clarified that I was joking, Striker immediately agreed that Verdance was elim. Based on Verdance’s reaction, if we assume he had the elim doc open and was checking it, we can also assume that his teammates either were not online at the time, or they had some sort of progression from confusion to buying my claim. In retrospect, this should have been some evidence in favor of meta-village!Myst, since his reaction doesn’t fit this profile. Hoid’s vote would be similar, except for the clarifying PM. That seems like something one of Verdance’s teammates might do. Unfortunately, I didn’t see the PM for a bit so I didn’t get to feel things out more there. coco’s vote feels kinda similar to Hoid’s, and I also got a PM from coco asking for clarification (less weird than Hoid’s, since we already had a PM up). And then Mippo/Kit Kat totally dodged the issue despite posting between my initial claim and my later reveal. This is also not a great look in my opinion. Especially for Mippo, who seems to be echoing some of Verdance’s continued confusion a bit later in the turn. Striker looks pretty clean. I don’t easily see how he can be on a team with Verdance given their totally different reactions. I’m thinking something like coco/Mippo/Hoid as the remaining meta-elims. Realistically only 1-2 of those are right, since plenty of folks weren’t online during the crucial time of this interaction. But I would lean toward any other elims being newer or less active based on the overall reaction to my gambit (Lettuce/Twinstorm->Divergent/Xino/Star) Conveniently, Mippo is still alive in the pseudogame, so why don’t we boot him out.

Well, you know, I scanned you as a meta-elim last cycle, so we could exe you instead . I agree in part with your point that going down a list exeing folks isn’t good practice. It’s rough for the folks on the list and makes it hard for other folks to engage. But I think in the case of Verdance there are 2 counterpoints that mean we should exe him. First, his response to my joke was pretty damning. He claimed the exact role/action combination that could make himself look village, and then gave additional information that his claimed role couldn’t provide. Second, if we win the pseudogame, we are going to get 1-2 free flips. If Verdance is actually an elim, we don’t want to waste one of those flips on him. Additionally, if you don’t want us to exe Verdance, you really need to suggest an alternative. Executions are a valuable resource and executing nobody puts us further from winning. I do think the inevitability of some of the exes in this game is a bit of a flaw in the game design, but I haven’t been able to think of a minor patch to fix the issue. Once the pseudogame ends we’ll have a similar issue where we just go down the list and execute everyone who got revealed (assuming we win the bet).

The pseudo-game has 8 players left and probably just one elim. I guess I’d be interested to know who TJ targeted, and whether he got himself killed deliberately (I doubt it). Like I said last turn, I think we should exe Verdance this cycle. If we are about to win the pseudo-game we don’t want to see his name as one of the free flips.

Yeah, I’m fine with Kit Kat.