Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Magestar he/him]

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Hey, glad to see you're still keeping up with the game. Slightly concerned that you're an elim, but an elim would have decided to stay quiet seeing as we have decided to focus our efforts on the seemingly active elim killer. 

Yeah, for me, that's the only thing on the village side of the scale for Gears, and the only thing that is causing me to slightly doubt the lynch. Having said that, my reads are off this game, so if I think he's village, then he's probably an elim. xD

No worries, Mint! Don't feel like you HAVE to make long posts to contribute. If you chip in here and there, that's totally fine with me. If you want to, then of course, go ahead. 

Still slightly suspicious of TJ.  The repeatedly leading mislynches only to apologize and then swear to follow other people's lynches seems kinda suspicious to me.  It's a good way for an Elim to get villagers killed before fading into the background a bit.

I'm also suspicious of Gears but I'm a little concerned by the almost total lack of opposition this lynch is seeing.  That, combined with their earlier involvement with Striker, makes me question whether or not they're an Elim.

However, given the number of inactives, it's entirely possible that most of the Elim team is inactive, and we're just kind of failing as a village.  I'll throw a vote on Gears for now.

The only person I'm really trusting at the moment is Matrim.  We haven't had enough Elim lynches at this point for me to clear anyone, and the format of this game makes it difficult for me to trust anyone.  Even my village read on Matrim and El are just gut reads, and El's not been active enough recently for it to be a useful read.

I've looked over most of the more active players in the game a couple times now, and I haven't found anything conclusive or even terribly useful.  I do think it's interesting that after apparently getting lucky C1, we haven't really gotten anywhere with our lynches.  I can't help but wonder if killing an Elim C1 is actually bad for the village, since it seems to lead to a lot of false reads surrounding the Elim - I think it might have something to do with the uncertainty surrounding the D1 lynch.  Although I suppose it is only D4.  It feels like it's been longer for some reason.  The Ventyl focus might also have been part of the problem.  Either way, I find it kind of strange how little I'm finding to work with as far as reads go.

[Coffeecat she/her]

sadly, i wont have time to do an analysis(if you can even call that analysis) like last cycle.

perhaps tomorrow

[Mat he/him]

@Magestar, you said you’d ‘throw a vote on Gears for now’ but there is no red text  Was this accidental?

I’m leaning on trusting TJ, partly because an elim wouldn’t have known Eternum was an KR any more than a villager would’ve, and because his posts seem the same as his other games to me and he was village in both of those, and I read him elim in both of those wrongly. I don’t want to repeat that.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

Still slightly suspicious of TJ.  The repeatedly leading mislynches only to apologize and then swear to follow other people's lynches seems kinda suspicious to me.  It's a good way for an Elim to get villagers killed before fading into the background a bit.

Mage, this is becoming a cyclic thing. xD Nevertheless I'm actually sort of thankful for it because it has sorta kept me alive till now. According to me, I'm only still alive due to a combination of three reasons - the protection thing me and Mat are doing, the constant suspicion on me which might make the elims think I'm still a viable candidate for a mislynch, and of course me leading mislynches, which would have tempted the elims to see if I lead more mislynches. As I said before, I did not "lead" a lynch on Eternum. I had a very personal suspicion on him. Reasons others gave for voting on him though:

On 7/9/2020 at 10:51 AM, Araris Valerian said:

Anywho, taking all the marked players off that list for now leaves:

Devotary
Mage
Pyro
Truthwatcher

I'd suggest that we lynch one of these 4, given that we might have a somewhat interactive vote rather than what has happened today (for which I am partially to blame). However, it is also somewhat late in the cycle, and the risk of losing 1/8 of our active players in a mislynch without a full 48 hours of discussion might not be worth it. So I'll put my vote on Eternum, just so that we don't have a singular bandwagon on Elbereth (I'd be down to vote on Silber if anyone else prefers him to El/Eternum). 

On 7/9/2020 at 10:56 AM, The Young Pyromancer said:

Sure, you raise some good points. If Elb is village, that's a big hit against us activity-wise, which is something I didn't think about.

However, if we lynch inactives, even inactive elims, and the elims kill active villagers, that's even more of a death sentence. I'm fine lynching Eternum over Elbereth, but will not abide by the same reasoning next cycle.

On 7/9/2020 at 6:06 PM, Gears said:

Your reasoning appears sounds, but I agree with Pyro that lynching active people should be a priority next cycle. However, with 4.5 hours remaining, I do not think we will successfully transfer the vote to an active individual. As such, I will move my vote from Elbereth to Eternum. @Eternum, you are currently up for the lynch. Come hither and defend yourself.

Note that both Pyro and Gears want to lynch an active played, but have actually voted for Elbereth who was obviously inactive at that point. Followed by: 

On 7/9/2020 at 10:21 PM, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

This is a pretty unassailable lynch. I guess I can make it more so, just as a note. I do think Eternum is the most likely to be an elim of the surviving voters for TJ over Striker D1, but it's worth looking elsewhere as well in subsequent turns.

Provides some kind of reasoning even if the train of thought is the same as me. 

On 7/9/2020 at 10:21 PM, The_Truthwatcher said:

I am voting for Eternum simply because both TJ and Gears think them suspicious, and I don't want to divide the votes of the village. I don't have any particular reads on them, but I felt they were village in QF45 when they were actually the elim, so I might easily be wrong.

So, flimsy bandwagoning. 

The reason I'm not going with my reads is because I've only hurt the village till now, and I don't want to do it anymore. Before your post, if you were to ask me who would I go for the lynch this cycle, I'd say either you, Araris or Pyro. But I relate so much with your post, for example:

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

I'm also suspicious of Gears but I'm a little concerned by the almost total lack of opposition this lynch is seeing.  That, combined with their earlier involvement with Striker, makes me question whether or not they're an Elim.

Same, as I mentioned before. 

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

I can't help but wonder if killing an Elim C1 is actually bad for the village, since it seems to lead to a lot of false reads surrounding the Elim.

Same, I kept thinking lynching an elim in D1 was a curse. 

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

Although I suppose it is only D4.  It feels like it's been longer for some reason.

And I definitely felt this. I was just about to post that it feels like we're in the endgame, like the last couple of cycles in LG66. 

So, that made me tilt a little bit more village towards you. My next lynch kill candidate would have to wait on the Gears' flip if he gets lynched though. 

Edited July 11, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

I currently mildly trust Mage for some reason unbeknownst to me. After my lynch, prioritise TJ over Matrim. Keep Araris in mind. Pay attention to inactives. 

[Mat he/him]

7 minutes ago, Gears said:

I currently mildly trust Mage for some reason unbeknownst to me. After my lynch, prioritise TJ over Matrim. Keep Araris in mind. Pay attention to inactives. 

I currently mildly distrust Mage for some reason unbeknownst to me. After Gears’ lynch it will greatly depend on his flip who to lynch next. If he flips village then I’d be fine with TJ. But if he flips elim then that would be a bad idea and we’d have to find another target. Why inactives?

[Gears]

30 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I currently mildly distrust Mage for some reason unbeknownst to me. After Gears’ lynch it will greatly depend on his flip who to lynch next. If he flips village then I’d be fine with TJ. But if he flips elim then that would be a bad idea and we’d have to find another target. Why inactives?

Given the vast quantity of inactives, odds are that at least 1 elim is inactive. 

[Magestar he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Magestar, you said you’d ‘throw a vote on Gears for now’ but there is no red text  Was this accidental?

I... guess I forgot to red out the text?    Thanks for catching that lol.  Gears.

53 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Mage, this is becoming a cyclic thing. xD Nevertheless I'm actually sort of thankful for it because it has sorta kept me alive till now. According to me, I'm only still alive due to a combination of three reasons - the protection thing me and Mat are doing, the constant suspicion on me which might make the elims think I'm still a viable candidate for a mislynch, and of course me leading mislynches, which would have tempted the elims to see if I lead more mislynches. As I said before, I did not "lead" a lynch on Eternum. I had a very personal suspicion on him. Reasons others gave for voting on him though:

I'm sorry.    I've just got so little else to go on.  Maybe lead might be a little strong - push might be better?  Idk.  I'm also realizing that "leading multiple mislynches" might be a little strong, since there have actually only been two lynches since the D1 Striker lynch.

I definitely agree that it feels like the endgame, but given typical Elim distributions, we still have several cycles left before the Elims win.  Using the square root or 20% distributions, we've got roughly 5 Elims either way, maybe less with a strong Elim base and a weaker Village, or more with weaker Elims and a stronger village.  I'd say at most there were 6 Elims with 24 players total, which would mean at most five left, which would mean we have at least 4 more cycles till the Elims win.  We're not in a terrible spot - the worst thing right now is inactivity, which seems to be slowly getting better?  I think we've still got a shot.

30 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I currently mildly distrust Mage for some reason unbeknownst to me. After Gears’ lynch it will greatly depend on his flip who to lynch next. If he flips village then I’d be fine with TJ. But if he flips elim then that would be a bad idea and we’d have to find another target. Why inactives?

Cool, cool.    I've seen a couple people say this now.   You and... Devotary, I think?  I'd love to see some discussion of this, maybe flesh it out a bit.  Frankly any discussion about someone who's not Gears or TJ would be good IMO.    

[|TJ| he/him]

@Gears, I've stood firm that you're village till the last cycle. There's still some part of me that believes that. But I can't trust that part because I've been wrong throughout the game. I'm just going along with a trust villager whose reads have been accurate so far. If I was following my reads, I'd want to lynch one of Mage, Araris or Pyro over you. But I'm cannot listen to that part of me, at least not this cycle. 

[Gears]

31 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Gears, I've stood firm that you're village till the last cycle. There's still some part of me that believes that. But I can't trust that part because I've been wrong throughout the game. I'm just going along with a trust villager whose reads have been accurate so far. If I was following my reads, I'd want to lynch one of Mage, Araris or Pyro over you. But I'm cannot listen to that part of me, at least not this cycle. 

After I get lynched, you are going to be really upset with yourself. As a wise theorist once said, "You have to use your instincts to deny your instincts to deny your instincts." Trust yourself, TJ. You know more about yourself than you do about anyone else. You or Matrim should be lynched next cycle. Araris should be considered. Investigate Mage before you trust them. Watch the inactives. 

[Mat he/him]

15 minutes ago, Gears said:

After I get lynched, you are going to be really upset with yourself. As a wise theorist once said, "You have to use your instincts to deny your instincts to deny your instincts." Trust yourself, TJ. You know more about yourself than you do about anyone else. You or Matrim should be lynched next cycle. Araris should be considered. Investigate Mage before you trust them. Watch the inactives. 

“Trust yourself TJ, you should be lynched next cycle” xD

And the Shard doesn’t want to let me type  below the quote... Well like most of my reads this game it’s largely gut.  That probably comes from me disagreeing with your reads, specifically on El, but then Araris convinced me to lay off her for the mean time, so now I’m left with an empty feeling...

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

Cool, cool.    I've seen a couple people say this now.   You and... Devotary, I think?  I'd love to see some discussion of this, maybe flesh it out a bit.  Frankly any discussion about someone who's not Gears or TJ would be good IMO.    

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

“Trust yourself TJ, you should be lynched next cycle” xD

Well, TJ should trust himself. I never said the general populace should trust him. 

[Magestar he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And the Shard doesn’t want to let me type  below the quote... Well like most of my reads this game it’s largely gut.  That probably comes from me disagreeing with your reads, specifically on El, but then Araris convinced me to lay off her for the mean time, so now I’m left with an empty feeling...

So you think that El is an Elim?  Why?

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

So you think that El is an Elim?  Why?

Umm... Anything I say will sound inadequate, because again, gut read. I feel like it’s not good to only have 1 elim suspect. Hence this suspicion, even if it’s not great. It probably comes from her suspicion on me, tbh. Though with Araris/others backing her and her inactivity, I probably wouldn’t vote on her next cycle.

[Mint11 she/her]

I'M DONE Y'ALL
 

The main thing I got from El's posts was that she was pretty aggressive in encouraging participation and was very active.
Araris moved their vote from Ventyl to Devotary to TJ on D1, so a lot of switching. Not sure if that says much on D1. I do wonder if their long posts on Gears and El are attempts on keeping the lynch focused on a small pool, but they have been helpful. I suppose it would also be telling if either Gears or El flipped elim.
Honestly, I'm having a hard time getting reads on El and Araris.

I'm not sure if I'm suspicious of Mage, but I do think he's really tunneling on TJ.

Gears
I'll note that in D1, Gears voted for Striker once Striker was a major lynch candidate, but before Striker's lynch was a definite. Given that, I doubt they're an elim. I will say that they steered a lot of attention towards Ventyl, which is somewhat suspicious, but I think the vote on Striker outweighs that. Gears was also in favor of leaving the vote a tie between TJ and Striker. Gears' tunneling on Ventyl is also... something that stands out a lot, so in hindsight, I'm not sure if elim!Gears would go that route, given that he'd know how Ventyl would flip. I'm also not convinced that elim!Gears wouldn't try to defend himself more in D2 (he seemed kind of laidback about being lynched, when there were ways he could defend himself i.e. provide more suspicions).

Lahilt
Lahilt doesn't seem very committed to any suspicions. They vote on TJ late in D1. They post some reads on D2 but essentially say that those reads can go either way. (Lahilt, if I've missed a post of yours that was more firm, please correct me.)

Devotary
Reading through Devotary's posts, I've found them to be noncommittal as well. They have become more interesting as the game goes on. She votes on Ventyl over Gears in D2 to break the tie, which is... interesting. I don't know if I'm getting a good feeling from her. I do think elim!Gears makes elim!Devotary more likely.

TJ
TJ's strongest elim reads on D1 were Eternum and Ventyl (the latter more so than the former). They changed their votes a lot during D1, mostly it seems for the sake of self preservation. He roleclaims N1. He REALLY went for the Ventyl lynch on D2. While elims try to steer mislynches, I have a hard time imagining elim!TJ being so aggressive about it. He'd know Ventyl would flip village which isn't a good look for him.

Combos
Pyro is very anti-Gears lynch on D3, so I find it unlikely that they'd be elims together. Elims don't normally offer each other such strong support openly. Matrim also really goes after Elbereth, so they're unlikely to be elims together. elim!TJ would also clear Mage since Mage expressed some pretty heavy suspicions of TJ.
 

So in contrast to the rest of the thread, I'd rather not lynch Gears (or TJ for that matter). We get a lot of information if Gears flips elim but given that I don't think he's elim, anyone willing to lynch Lahilt? I really don't like this single train. And honestly, I'm also still on board for lynching inactives.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

6 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Pyro is very anti-Gears lynch on D3, so I find it unlikely that they'd be elims together. Elims don't normally offer each other such strong support openly.

I mean, I'm a bit of an exception to that, but whatever.

6 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I really don't like this single train. And honestly, I'm also still on board for lynching inactives.

See, there is good reasons against that. End of D3 I expressed my opinions on that, and a bunch of people agreed, adding their own thoughts. 
I agree with your lynch analysis here. Since lynching a semi-active elim who's around enough to put in kills doesn't lead to the loss scenario like we talked about the previous day, I'll vote on Frozen Mint.
EDIT: to be clear, I meant the single train bit.

Edited July 12, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Gears]

1 minute ago, Frozen Mint said:

So in contrast to the rest of the thread, I'd rather not lynch Gears (or TJ for that matter). We get a lot of information if Gears flips elim but given that I don't think he's elim, anyone willing to lynch Lahilt? I really don't like this single train. And honestly, I'm also still on board for lynching inactives.

I would indeed be willing to vote Lahlit Matrim. Please note that I would prefer to lynch someone more active [as discussed last turn], but in the interest of self-preservation, I will concede this point. I thank you for your insightful analysis, but I fear your efforts are for naught. General populace, I upgrade Mint to a mild village read. My final thoughts concerning the players: Matrim is pushing so hard for my lynch that I'm inclined to read them as village. TJ is also probably village. Lahlit is a possible lynch target, along with Matrim and TJ [I know I said they were probably village, but they have still been suspicious]. Inspect Mage and Mint before trusting them. Au revoir, fellow players. I eagerly await your reactions to my flip.

[+Lotus she/her]

I have to go to bed soon, and I still have no clue who to vote on. 
 

Edit: Eternum for now. I’m curious about his inactivity.

May change if I don’t sleep in tomorrow, we’ll see. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by MysticLotus

[|TJ| he/him]

14 hours ago, Gears said:

After I get lynched, you are going to be really upset with yourself. As a wise theorist once said, "You have to use your instincts to deny your instincts to deny your instincts." Trust yourself, TJ. You know more about yourself than you do about anyone else. You or Matrim should be lynched next cycle. Araris should be considered. Investigate Mage before you trust them. Watch the inactives. 

Bahh, you're confusing mee! 

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

As far as I can tell, Mint's vote on Lahilt is completely random, while Gears is holding out some hope of survival. I would rather not kill a random inactive at this point in the game.

Lahilt is not a random inactive though? He's been posting in each cycle. He voted for Ventyl, and strongly wanted to kill him in D1, but didn't vote for him in D2. In fact, he didn't vote at all, neither in D2 nor in D3, despite posting in thread. I'm in a dilemma because I do believe Gears is innocent, but I really do not want him to escape from a lynch the second time if he is an elim. 

[Mint11 she/her]

11 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

As far as I can tell, Mint's vote on Lahilt is completely random, while Gears is holding out some hope of survival. I would rather not kill a random inactive at this point in the game.

It wasn't intended as a random vote. Lahilt has been posting but they've been passive. Their strongest suspicions come only after others . They've posted some reads here and there but then they hedge their reads ("village read but also, they could be elim"). This might just have to do with their newness but it's a great way for an elim to fly under the radar while supporting a mislynch.

Also, forgot to mention in my initial post, but I have a pretty strong village read on Matrim. I guess you can call it a gut read at this point, I think there were some things in their posts which made me think village (some of which I've mentioned previously) but I don't remember them atm.

@TJ Shade Vote based on your suspicions, not based on self doubt. I'm not sure if this is helpful to say but being wrong is part of the game.  Getting good reads is really hard. Frankly, I don't think I'm very good at it yet. But you can only get better through practice.

[Gears]

Farewell. Auf Wiedersehen. 再見. Slán. Mar sin leat. До свидания! さようなら. Au revoir. הֱיה שלום. Do widzenia. Adios. وداعا. Vaarwel. Hyvästi. 

@TJ Shade, mallachd ort, verfluche dich, проклинаю тебя

يقبرني . 

Edited July 12, 2020 by Gears
Forgot to tag

[theTruthshaper]

Sorry, guys for being inactive. Few days have been crazy, also I feel completely confused about the game.

On 7/11/2020 at 2:56 AM, Araris Valerian said:

Yeah this isn't very coherent. And it's the last post from Elbereth. I've got an overall solid village read on her, and feel like all of the vague elim reads came from that one post by Truthwatcher, which makes me vaguely suspicious of the people just repeating that idea.

Which post of mine is this? Is this the one in D1 in which I said I was suspicious of people pushing random lynches?

 

So, right now I am going to try and realign my reads because I feel very confused.

[|TJ| he/him]

18 minutes ago, Gears said:

Farewell. Auf Wiedersehen. 再見. Slán. Mar sin leat. До свидания! さようなら. Au revoir. הֱיה שלום. Do widzenia. Adios. وداعا. Vaarwel. Hyvästi. 

@TJ Shade, mallachd ort, verfluche dich, проклинаю тебя

يقبرني . 

Curse me? Why are you singling me out? 

[Gears]

Just now, TJ Shade said:

Curse me? Why are you singling me out? 

You have failed to maintain your self-confidence and convictions. Honest suspicions are perfectly fine. Going against one's own opinions to follow someone else's is unacceptable. Thou art cursed for your foolishness, for your self-doubt, for your failings. 

[Mat he/him]

Translation please someone xD

Edit: If Gears is village, 1. I’m sorry 2. Please spare me for my failures

Edited July 12, 2020 by Matrim's Dice