Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Magestar he/him]

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I really hope you don't lynch me because we'd out of 3 village KRs. There's literal proof of someone else who has been active submitting elim kills as I used up both my actions in D1, and hence could not have submitted elim kill in D1. I Squired during N2, and hence could not have submitted the elim kill in D2 as well, though you'll have to take my word for it, or the word of the Squire, who may or may not be active, which I will not confirm. 

That just means that there's another Elim who's active enough to submit kills.  The Elim KR should never be the one submitting kills?  I'm not sure that this is much of a defense.  

Although regardless of whether you're an Elim or not, you're right in that this does mean that one of the active or at least semi-active players is an Elim, which is good news for us.  The problem is it's also entirely possible to be active enough to submit kills and still not post in the thread very much.  

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

We've had the discussion about TJ being evil I'm pretty sure. Strategically, it may have been a good idea for elims!TJ and Striker to make sure one of them died D1, but strategy doesn't beat out enjoyment and I sincerely, sincerely doubt Striker(dies D1 a lot, hasn't been elim often) or TJ(first elim game) would have chosen death unless there was no other option, and we know there were other options because Gears and Ventyl were villagers. I do have a tendency to underestimate ruthlessness, but I just don't see it.

The problem with this is that Striker would have survived if he voted on Ventyl.  Village!TJ, Elim!Striker, Striker votes on Ventyl and TJ has no reason to put his vote on Striker.  Safest option.  The obvious option, even.  At that point, Ventyl would have had four votes and Striker and TJ would have both had three, and TJ would removed the votes off of himself anyway, so he had no reason to worry.   Ventyl had even almost admitted to being a KR at that point, right?  So the Elims could have had an KR down and saved a Elim.  Plus, as you say, it's the most enjoyable option for Striker.  What happened makes no sense.

With Elim!Striker, Elim!TJ, at least we can see that it's some kind of bus.  TJ and Striker are up for the lynch, and Striker doesn't think he'll survive many more cycles with this much suspicion on him, especially if he's involved in a village lynch D1.  So they set up a bus to "basically clear" a rather powerful Elim KR, one with two vote manipulations.  You want that Elim to survive as long as possible.  Still a little odd, but it makes more sense to me than Village!TJ.

I'm going to put my vote on TJ Shade.  I think they've survived too long on the weirdness of the Striker lynch.  I see no reason why TJ can't, or isn't likely to be an Elim, and I've given my reasoning before as to why I'm suspicious of them before.  Those suspicions haven't really diminished, and at this point I don't see a lot of better options.  Plus it's the only way I can reconcile the lynch in my mind.  I should have thought about that before.  I knew something was bugging me about it.

If this doesn't pan out, I've got nothing.  The Elims are probably hiding among the inactives - Kynedath, Orlok, Xino, Zillah, and maybe a few partial actives?  Lahilt, Truthwatcher, etc?  Idk.  Or they're just really good at hiding and I suck.  >.>

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Slightly suspicious of Silber as I think an elim is more likely to be motivated enough to go through 30+ pages to continue the game rather than a villager. 

Hey.    I do this all the time.

[Mat he/him]

I think Lahilt is much more likely to be an elim over TJ. I had a PM with TJ and he seemed very villagery in that. Lahilt, on the other hand, has been dodging votes and sliding under the radar. I think other elims could be Magestar and Orlok.

Edited July 14, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ| he/him]

Alright, I've tried to overlook your suspicion on me as that of a tunneling villager, but this has gone on long enough even for that. It seems like you're genuinely frustrated that you're saving me for a mislynch and no one seems to be acting on it. The very lack of hesitancy to lynch a village KR, after we've lynched 2 village KR speaks volumes of your intentions. You seem to be hiding behind the "I was just tunneling" excuse when I flip village. 

3 hours ago, Magestar said:

The problem with this is that Striker would have survived if he voted on Ventyl.  Village!TJ, Elim!Striker, Striker votes on Ventyl and TJ has no reason to put his vote on Striker.  Safest option.  The obvious option, even.  At that point, Ventyl would have had four votes and Striker and TJ would have both had three, and TJ would removed the votes off of himself anyway, so he had no reason to worry.   Ventyl had even almost admitted to being a KR at that point, right?  So the Elims could have had an KR down and saved a Elim.  Plus, as you say, it's the most enjoyable option for Striker.  What happened makes no sense.

You're literally making a case for me here. What you said above is the easiest way me and Striker both could have escaped the lynch if we were elims. Living for one more cycle with reasonable suspicion if better than dying in D1, I'd imagine. No one would have just resigned - "Oh, I'm gonna get suspicion if I do this anyway. Let me just die." 

How would a bus make sense, man? Bus has to be one way, right? All elims vote for one elim to gain the trust of the village? How would that make sense, me and Striker voted on each other. I was on the lead 5-3 for a majority of the cycle. If there was a decision to bus, the elims would not have even allowed votes on me to gather. They would vote on Striker when it was 2-2-2-2 to give him a lead and lynch him. Everyone else who voted on Striker has turned up village, except Matrim. What, are you accusing him of bussing too? There are hundreds of reasons I can bring up like this for my innocence, and I have brought them up earlier in the game as well, especially the way the D1 lynch went which makes it highly improbable that I'm an elim. Your sheer reluctance to understand them, and your willingness to just brush them off is not a characteristic a villager would exhibit. 

3 hours ago, Magestar said:

I see no reason why TJ can't, or isn't likely to be an Elim, and I've given my reasoning before as to why I'm suspicious of them before. 

Yes, because you do not want to see them, mostly deliberately. Your reasoning is basically "Striker lynch was weird. You're weird." and that's it. 

Magestar, there's only so much I can be pushed around and feel the need to defend myself before I begin to feel suspicious of my accuser, and I began to feel suspicious of your accusations 3 cycles earlier.

Pretty sure no one else will join me in this, and I definitely feel like I've survived longer than I expected after being forced to role-claim and expend my charges in the very first turn. If this doesn't pan out, I bid adieu and wish you all the best. You have 2 cycles of mislynches after I die, and make sure you use those cycles expeditiously. Beware of (Magestar + Araris) team. Might not post again this cycle unless I have to vote in self-preservation, as I feel any response to Magestar will be practically useless, and I'm just tired of defending myself. 

Edit: Ninja'd by Mat. What did you post!?

Edit 2: Well, I feel Mage is more suspicious than Lahilt after this latest accusation. I'm keping my vote on him and move if I have to, to save myself. 

Edited July 14, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Mat he/him]

I mean, if more people go to Mage I’d switch.

[Magestar he/him]

30 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Alright, I've tried to overlook your suspicion on me as that of a tunneling villager, but this has gone on long enough even for that. It seems like you're genuinely frustrated that you're saving me for a mislynch and no one seems to be acting on it. The very lack of hesitancy to lynch a village KR, after we've lynched 2 village KR speaks volumes of your intentions. You seem to be hiding behind the "I was just tunneling" excuse when I flip village. 

I just don't have any better options.  Even you, voting on me, are only doing so because I'm voting on you.  In your post just prior to the one in which you vote on me, you even said you had a village read on me.

26 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

How would a bus make sense, man? Bus has to be one way, right? All elims vote for one elim to gain the trust of the village? How would that make sense, me and Striker voted on each other. I was on the lead 5-3 for a majority of the cycle. If there was a decision to bus, the elims would not have even allowed votes on me to gather. They would vote on Striker when it was 2-2-2-2 to give him a lead and lynch him. Everyone else who voted on Striker has turned up village, except Matrim. What, are you accusing him of bussing too? There are hundreds of reasons I can bring up like this for my innocence, and I have brought them up earlier in the game as well, especially the way the D1 lynch went which makes it highly improbable that I'm an elim. Your sheer reluctance to understand them, and your willingness to just brush them off is not a characteristic a villager would exhibit. 

I mean, no, a bus doesn't have to be all one way.  I'm saying that the you and Striker, as Elims, were trying to protect the Elim KR.  What do you mean the Elims would not even allow votes to gather?  Like you said, everyone else who voted on Striker turned up village.  How could they control that?  Idk about Matrim.  I've got a pretty village read on them, but at this point IDK.  I don't think you have hundreds of reasons for your innocence.  The only one that really convinced me earlier was that it didn't make sense for Striker to vote on you - but now I'm starting to think that you being an Elim is the only thing that makes sense.  That would "clear" you, and Striker would have known you'd survive, because of your vote canceling.  

You've also switched sides on a bunch of things a lot this game.  D1, you trusted Ventyl, D2, you pushed for their lynch.  Same with Gears.  Now with me.  Your tone has been off all game to me, and you haven't really stuck to your opinions.  That reads Elim to me.  Even Gears noticed it, right before they died.  

The only other lynch that's happening right now is Lahilt, because they're "Dodging votes and sliding under the radar."  I just don't see it.  Who else should I vote on?  Matrim, Mint, or Devotary, people who I feel are pretty village?  Kynedath, Orlok, Zillah, or Xino, who are inactive?  I'm leaning village on Ilwei, and Shane, Silb, Pyro, and Truth have all been pretty quiet, to the extent I don't have a read on any of them.  That leaves you, who I've been suspicious of all game, and Araris, who I can't get a read on.  To me, you're the obvious choice.  Call it tunneling if you want to, but I don't see a better option.

Someone else check me if I'm being ridiculous.  @Matrim's Dice, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Frozen Mint, am I crazy?    I feel like this makes sense.

[|TJ| he/him]

Bahh, you're gonna make me defend myself again, aren't you? 

3 minutes ago, Magestar said:

D1, you trusted Ventyl, D2, you pushed for their lynch.  Same with Gears.  Now with me.  Your tone has been off all game to me, and you haven't really stuck to your opinions.  That reads Elim to me.

How does that read elim? An elim would actually firmly just stick with their option to mislynch a village. It's normal for a villager to change their opinion as things develop. I'd say it's even healthier for a villager to change their opinion based on the changing conditions rather than just tunnel like you apparently are.

I never trusted Ventyl. I have made one post which was based on his first post, and then after he pseudo-claimed, I felt we should be rather wary of him. I pushed for a lynch on him in the very same cycle as he became more and more suspicious. I never stated any suspicion on Gears as well. I only followed Matrim's suspicion because my reads have been wrong the entire game, and I thought I would be wrong in presuming Gears' innocence as well. And I'd like to note the important word relatively village, as in when compared to Araris and Lahilt, which was based on our interaction last cycle, which felt relatively good to me, which obviously changed as soon as you pushed for me, and the way you're pushing. 

Annnd, I was actually waiting for the MR 43 results in the meanwhile to see if Lahilt will flip elim. His behaviour there was very similar to the one here. Basically hedging " X could be village, but I could also see them as elim" like Mint said. Will wait for a while to see if someone is willing to lynch Mage. If not, I'll shift to Lahilt later. 

[Lahilt he/him]

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Yes, it's been discussed and debunked (I hope). Me and Striker would have voted for Ventyl together and saved ourselves if we both were elims. He chose to vote for me. He wouldn't do that if there was an effort to save me over him. 

You were on-board with this. You wanted to kill Ventyl, then did not vote for him at all in D2. 

Everyone alive is involved in lynching all villagers. Let me remind you that me and Matrim are the only players alive to lynch an elim. 

What info could you possibly gain with me flipping village? And I guarantee you I will flip village. 

Right, so my suspects. Araris remains the only player alive to have voted on me. Either he's village which means I'm not exactly sure where in the storms are the D1 elim votes, or he's an elim. He never seemed to mention Striker in D1 except for the elim!Devotary -> elim! Striker bit. Though why go for Devotary when Striker already had 2 votes on him? He mentions "If I have to go for TJ or Gears, I'd rather go for TJ to solidify his vote as I roughly trust/distrust them." No talk of Striker. He later votes for me at a crucial time changing 4-3 to 5-3 in favor of lynching me. 

There are some things that work for Araris, like him clearing Elbereth, which would end up with him being the only other to have voted for me. Firmly defended me and Ventyl, and I don't know why an elim would try to defend 2 village KRs.

Lahilt was strongly for lynching Ventyl in D1. But did not back it up with a vote in D2. He also has been semi-active and might have decided to elim kill Ashbringer as he might not have seen suspicion him by me and Matrim. 

If we're lynching an inactive, I'd go for Orlok seeing as he focused only on Elbereth and Gears, and later voted for Ventyl. Highest suspicion among the inactives.

Relatively village reads on Matrim, Mint, Ilwei, Magestar, Truthwatcher, Kynedath.

Neutral: Pyro, Devotary

Slightly suspicious of Silber as I think an elim is more likely to be motivated enough to go through 30+ pages to continue the game rather than a villager. 

I really hope you don't lynch me because we'd out of 3 village KRs. There's literal proof of someone else who has been active submitting elim kills as I used up both my actions in D1, and hence could not have submitted elim kill in D1. I Squired during N2, and hence could not have submitted the elim kill in D2 as well, though you'll have to take my word for it, or the word of the Squire, who may or may not be active, which I will not confirm. 

I don't know whom to vote for this cycle between Lahilt and Araris, but I hope a discussion can ensue and I can vote because of my suspicion and not out of self-preservation.

TJ Shade I forgot that striker voted on you. I will give you a slight village clear.

Magestar  I find your tunneling of TJ a bit strange. Can you show us what exactly you find suspicious about them?

[Mat he/him]

@TJ Shade 

Spoiler for the now concluded MR for all who haven’t seen the write up :

Spoiler

Lahilt was indeed evil. If he’s acting the same here that could be telling.

 

[|TJ| he/him]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@TJ Shade 

Spoiler for the now concluded MR for all who haven’t seen the write up :

  Reveal hidden contents

Lahilt was indeed evil. If he’s acting the same here that could be telling.

 

Yes, Mat. I wrote that up after reading the aftermath. Will isolate Lahilt's posts clearly to find if there are more similarities. In the meanwhile, do you guys find Lahilt's flipping weird?

[Magestar he/him]

36 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

Magestar  I find your tunneling of TJ a bit strange. Can you show us what exactly you find suspicious about them?

...I feel like I’ve explained it pretty thoroughly.   I’m at work at the moment so I can’t write up anything long. . When I get back I’ll try to write up a post summarizing my suspicion of TJ and listing some of my other reads.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Lahilt said:

TJ Shade I forgot that striker voted on you. I will give you a slight village clear.

Magestar  I find your tunneling of TJ a bit strange. Can you show us what exactly you find suspicious about them?

This seems like an opportunistic vote change to me. I’m happy lynching Lahilt, and I’m going to stick with my soft-clear read on TJ. Sorry for my inactivity, but yesterday I was doing taxes, and I’ll be too busy today for anything but shorter posts.

I see the suspicion on Mage, and might consider lynching him next cycle if Lahilt flips village.

I thought I talked about stuff D1 a little more, but I neither saw the reason for the votes on Striker (which I still think were rather flimsy), nor was online during the latter part of the cycle when TJ roleclaimed and the lynch was restricted to TJ/Striker.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

7 hours ago, Magestar said:

The problem with this is that Striker would have survived if he voted on Ventyl.  Village!TJ, Elim!Striker, Striker votes on Ventyl and TJ has no reason to put his vote on Striker.  Safest option.  The obvious option, even.  At that point, Ventyl would have had four votes and Striker and TJ would have both had three, and TJ would removed the votes off of himself anyway, so he had no reason to worry.   Ventyl had even almost admitted to being a KR at that point, right?  So the Elims could have had an KR down and saved a Elim.  Plus, as you say, it's the most enjoyable option for Striker.  What happened makes no sense.

That's definitely not true. The vote count when Striker voted for TJ was 

StrikerEZ (4): A Joe in the Bush, Gears, Matrim's Dice, Sart
TJ Shade (3): Araris Valerian, Elbereth, Eternum
Ventyl (3): Lahilt, Magestar, TJ Shade
A Joe in the Bush (1): Ventyl
Gears (2): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ

Note how TJ and Ventyl have the same number of votes here, and neither of them are currently voting for Striker. Striker votes for TJ, TJ switches to Striker. Striker votes for Ventyl, Ventyl switches to Striker. There's no mechanical difference. Voting for TJ goes against the grain of recent votes, while going for a claimed Radiant Striker knows will flip village increases suspicion on him in future cycles, but both are about equal in terms of survivability not taking the elim team into account. Whichever of Ventyl and TJ had fewer elims voting on them would seem to be easier to swing the vote to, but that didn't actually end up happening, so I'm not entirely sure what was going on with that. Striker/Lahilt/Mage/TJ is a (silly) possibility, but even then neither Striker nor TJ had to die. Getting saved with vote manipulation doesn't mean you're evil, after all. We never actually found out who removed the vote from Gears, since Gears wasn't a surgebinder.

[|TJ| he/him]

It seems a lynch on Lahilt is materializing, and no one wants to lynch Magestar this cycle.

[Lahilt he/him]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@TJ Shade 

Spoiler for the now concluded MR for all who haven’t seen the write up :

  Reveal hidden contents

Lahilt was indeed evil. If he’s acting the same here that could be telling.

 

If I was Elim in both games I would have played different in each one to help me when I flip in either one.

6 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think Lahilt is much more likely to be an elim over TJ. I had a PM with TJ and he seemed very villagery in that. Lahilt, on the other hand, has been dodging votes and sliding under the radar. I think other elims could be Magestar and Orlok.

The part about reading TJ village off of a PM gives me a slight Elim read on this post. It is as if Matrims dice knows too good that TJ Shade is indeed village trying. 

If Mat is Elim. TJ will likely be village.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

This seems like an opportunistic vote change to me. I’m happy lynching Lahilt, and I’m going to stick with my soft-clear read on TJ. Sorry for my inactivity, but yesterday I was doing taxes, and I’ll be too busy today for anything but shorter posts.

I see the suspicion on Mage, and might consider lynching him next cycle if Lahilt flips village.

I thought I talked about stuff D1 a little more, but I neither saw the reason for the votes on Striker (which I still think were rather flimsy), nor was online during the latter part of the cycle when TJ roleclaimed and the lynch was restricted to TJ/Striker.

I wanted some discussion and  I also wanted to see the reaction to some of my votes. Opportunistic voting!  

this post looks like Araris might be setting up for a mislynch on Magestar next cycle.

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

If I was Elim in both games I would have played different in each one to help me when I flip in either one.

The part about reading TJ village off of a PM gives me a slight Elim read on this post. It is as if Matrims dice knows too good that TJ Shade is indeed village trying. 

If Mat is Elim. TJ will likely be village.

Sounds like too much forethought imo.

...Why? How is PMs any different than the thread in terms of tone/conversation?

I thought it was generally agreed that we were either v/v or e/e.

 

[Lahilt he/him]

50 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Sounds like too much forethought imo.

...Why? How is PMs any different than the thread in terms of tone/conversation?

I thought it was generally agreed that we were either v/v or e/e.

 

A PM is read by only one player. This is an easy way to say you think that someone is village when you know that someone is indeed village.

It is also generally agreed that I am an Elim.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Lahilt said:

this post looks like Araris might be setting up for a mislynch on Magestar next cycle.

Any particular reason for thinking Mage is village?

[Lahilt he/him]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Any particular reason for thinking Mage is village?

No, I do not. although I could definitely see it being possible.

[Illwei]

4 hours ago, Lahilt said:

This is an easy way to say you think that someone is village when you know that someone is indeed village.

I-

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Lahilt(5): Mint, Matrim, Araris, TJ, Devotary
TJ(2): Silber, Mage
Mage(1): Lahilt

I've been not great at getting votes in, but maybe if I vote now I'll do better? Or maybe it'll just give me an excuse not to pay attention to EOD. I'd expect at least one of Lahilt, Araris, and Mage to be an elim. Araris and Lahilt are the least likely elim pairing from that group of three, both from today's votes and from the D1 split. I am willing to vote for Lahilt today. I do hope to check in before rollover.

[Magestar he/him]

So, here are some more reads of mine.  I looked over these people's posts, and I was going to provide some explanation for my reasoning behind these reads, but after starting to do so, I realized that the majority of my reasoning boiled down to "they did this thing and it didn't seem like an Elim would do that" or vice versa but I really have no solid reasoning because all we've done this game is sort of noncommittally lynched villagers.  Whee.

---

    Mild Elim:

Lord Silberfarben

Truth

Araris

    Mild Village:

Ilwei

Devotary

Matrim

Mint

---

 

16 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

That's definitely not true. The vote count when Striker voted for TJ was 

StrikerEZ (4): A Joe in the Bush, Gears, Matrim's Dice, Sart
TJ Shade (3): Araris Valerian, Elbereth, Eternum
Ventyl (3): Lahilt, Magestar, TJ Shade
A Joe in the Bush (1): Ventyl
Gears (2): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ

Note how TJ and Ventyl have the same number of votes here, and neither of them are currently voting for Striker. Striker votes for TJ, TJ switches to Striker. Striker votes for Ventyl, Ventyl switches to Striker. There's no mechanical difference. Voting for TJ goes against the grain of recent votes, while going for a claimed Radiant Striker knows will flip village increases suspicion on him in future cycles, but both are about equal in terms of survivability not taking the elim team into account. Whichever of Ventyl and TJ had fewer elims voting on them would seem to be easier to swing the vote to, but that didn't actually end up happening, so I'm not entirely sure what was going on with that. Striker/Lahilt/Mage/TJ is a (silly) possibility, but even then neither Striker nor TJ had to die. Getting saved with vote manipulation doesn't mean you're evil, after all. We never actually found out who removed the vote from Gears, since Gears wasn't a surgebinder.

Hmm.  I suppose you're right.  I must have messed up my vote count when looking over this lynch.

And that takes my suspicion of TJ back to being just a bad gut read.  -sigh-  I don't know what it is but I'm having some trouble reading people this game.  I don't know if it's because everyone's been as confused as I am, or because of the amount of inactivity, or if it's something else.  I think to some extent I'm also feeling less motivated to put in the effort this game than I was in LG67.  That might just be because I've recently had more hours working than I did in LG67.

Regardless, with TJ's vote manipulation, there's basically no way he gets lynched today.  I'm going to leave my vote there because frankly at this point I can't be bothered.  I'm not in a terribly good mood because of IRL things.  If I'm feeling better later I might put some more effort into posting but I don't think I'll probably post again this cycle.

[Lahilt he/him]

Ho ve, mi nun vidas ke mi mortos.

 Mi nur petas ke miaj kunludantoj venku en la fino.

[Mat he/him]

22 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

Ho ve, mi nun vidas ke mi mortos.

 Mi nur petas ke miaj kunludantoj venku en la fino.

Again would like translation...

[Lahilt he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Again would like translation...

Estas la fino de mi. Mi mortigas kiam la suno estas alta en la Cxielo. Mi petas al cxiuj mortigxu Matrims dice li estas mortisto. Koleru la tuta mondo verda. 

You can call it my death rattle

Esperanto is on Google Translate.

Adiau. 

[Straw he/him]

The day is over.