Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Straw he/him]

Lahilt, the strange man in your group who always talked in some strange language, was dead. He was always a strange fellow, and you're pretty sure you'd caught him writing once. Well, regardless of his origin, Lahilt was dead by your hands. With his dying breath, he had said that he was on your side all along.

---

Lahilt has died! He was a Refugee.

Vote Count:

Lahilt (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Frozen Mint, Matrim's Dice, TJ Shade
TJ Shade (2): Lord_Silberfarben, Magestar
Matrim's Dice (1): Lahilt

GM Notes:

-The night will end on July 16th, at 1:00 PM EST.

-Don't forget to get your actions in!

-PMs are closed!

Player List:

Spoiler

A Joe in the Bush Refugee

@Araris Valerian

Ashbringer Refugee

@Devotary of Spontaneity

Elbereth Refugee

Eternum Refugee Skybreaker

@shanerockes

@Frozen Mint

Gears Refugee

@Illwei

@Kynedath

Lahilt Refugee

@Lord_Silberfarben

@Magestar

@Matrim's Dice

@Orlok Tsubodai

Sart Refugee

StrikerEZ Diagramist

@The Young Pyromancer

@The_Truthwatcher

@TJ Shade

Ventyl Refugee Edgedancer

@xinoehp512

@Zillah

 

[Mat he/him]

Ah shoot. At this point I got no idea what to do. I’d be down for TJ, or Mint, or really anyone at this point. :/

Edited July 15, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[|TJ| he/him]

Nothing is going right for us in this game. Even the Striker lynch only seems to create confusion among us and painted a target on my back. Guess we'll see who the elim kill is and move on from there. The thing is, it's not the elims that are actually defeating us this game, it's the inactivity of the village, specifically the village power roles. Imagine we had an active Dustbringer or an Elsecaller, it would be so helpful. And the possible lack of Squiring is hurting us as well. 

[Mat he/him]

TJ, if you want to be more cleared, you might consider having your squire come forward. Think about it first though.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

TJ, if you want to be more cleared, you might consider having your squire come forward. Think about it first though.

Why would this be a good idea? I mean, if TJ was lynched and flipped elim, it would be nice to know his squire for a followup lynch. If he's lynched and flips village, knowing his squire doesn't really do anything except possibly tell the elims who to take out (since a village KR could easily squire an elim).

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Nothing is going right for us in this game. Even the Striker lynch only seems to create confusion among us and painted a target on my back. Guess we'll see who the elim kill is and move on from there. The thing is, it's not the elims that are actually defeating us this game, it's the inactivity of the village, specifically the village power roles. Imagine we had an active Dustbringer or an Elsecaller, it would be so helpful. And the possible lack of Squiring is hurting us as well. 

We should never lose a game to the elims because our "power roles" weren't active (barring some crazy rulesets we've had, which these aren't). Role are helpful, true, and they add flavor, but the path to victory is through the lynch.

[Coffeecat she/her]

hmmm

I think I will continue with my lynch on TJ next cycle.

this seems like the elims deflecting the lynch on one of their own to me

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Right, I’m not reading Araris as village, but since so many people are, if they’re an elim I’d say we’ve pretty much lost. 

For a TJ lynch, if our next lynch is a village NR, we’ve basically lost. If there’s 5-6 elims, that means we’re 10 or 9 to 4 or 5 after this night. If we lynch a villager, that’s pretty much game, if inactivity is considered. We need to lynch an active elim this day cycle. I suggest mage as a candidate in case I die. Be suspicious of people who put pressure on tj. If there is any protection left, tj would be the best target, considering their analysis combined with their role would make them a great kill.

[Straw he/him]

The night is over!

[Straw he/him]

Galatar's dead body was found outside. It looked like he had put up a fight against whoever killed him, and the ground around him was shattered. Another Radiant was dead.

---

TJ Shade has died! He was a Refugee Bondsmith.

GM Notes:

-The day will end on July 18th, at 1:00 PM EST.

-If you need a vote count, just @mention me and I'll give you one ASAP!

-PMs are closed.

Player List:

Spoiler

A Joe in the Bush Refugee

@Araris Valerian

Ashbringer Refugee

@Devotary of Spontaneity

Elbereth Refugee

Eternum Refugee Skybreaker

@shanerockes

@Frozen Mint

Gears Refugee

@Illwei

@Kynedath

Lahilt Refugee

@Lord_Silberfarben

@Magestar

@Matrim's Dice

@Orlok Tsubodai

Sart Refugee

StrikerEZ Diagramist

@The Young Pyromancer

@The_Truthwatcher

TJ Shade Refugee Bondsmith

Ventyl Refugee Edgedancer

@xinoehp512

@Zillah

 

[Mat he/him]

I swear.

Anyone got any lynch ideas :P?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

I mean, at this point, you could pick someone random and probably have a 1/3 chance of hitting an elim. My preference for the lynch this cycle is one of Devotary, Pyro, and Mage. 

[Mat he/him]

Araris, you were once a village read. No more. You have been involved with a bunch of mislynches and votes on villagers, including D1 and D2, and I supremely disagree with the random chance idea. I’d very much prefer a lynch based on reasoning 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Devotary, Araris, and Mage are my suspects. Araris for similar reasons that Matrim mentioned, and the other two for their lack of DOING anything.

Araris, please explain your preferences.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

24 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

and I supremely disagree with the random chance idea

Sorry, that came out a little wrong (especially since I followed it by listing 3 names). To clarify, those are all people I suspect, and I’d be fairly comfortable moving my vote to any of them. I wasn’t choosing randomly. I’ve mentioned Pyro and Devotary before as suspicious for their lurking. If you look at all the lynches, there aren’t any players alive that were ever in danger of being lynched. Thus, the elims can’t really have had any incentive to get seriously involved in the lynch. Consequently, I kind of want to lynch a lurker this cycle. Mage had some stuff last cycle that I read as pretty elimy, although I’ll have to go back for the specifics. I did mention it during last cycle briefly though.

29 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

You have been involved with a bunch of mislynches and votes on villagers, including D1 and D2,

Hasn’t everyone who voted at all this game been involved in a bunch of mislynches and votes on villagers? I was pretty against lynching either Ventyl or TJ (backed up by my vote), while I’d wager the elims would have been happy to let a V!KR/V!KR lynch go through. I think you might be picking up on the fact that I’m not afraid to get my hands dirty in these games, even if that means a bunch of well-meant mislynches.

I also just realized that of all the people who voted on Striker D1, you are the only one still living. I think the only reason I’ve been trusting you up to this point is because of your reveal of being Ventyl’s squire, but as the game drags on without catching any elims, that becomes worth a bit less.

Anyway, what do you think of a lynch on Pyro/Devotary/Mage?

[Mat he/him]

20 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Anyway, what do you think of a lynch on Pyro/Devotary/Mage?

First and second I have read mostly village, so right now no. Mage... was a decent elim read but after TJ’s flip I’m doubting elim!Mage would’ve gone after TJ that hard only to elim kill him.

So I’ll stick with you.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

First and second I have read mostly village

What have Pyro/Devotary done to earn a village read? I still have a rather null read on both of them, and at this stage of the game I feel that merits a lynch.

[Mat he/him]

43 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

What have Pyro/Devotary done to earn a village read? I still have a rather null read on both of them, and at this stage of the game I feel that merits a lynch.

Pyro, gut/a bit of PM stuff. Devotary I agree with their reasoning.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Pyro, gut/a bit of PM stuff.

Well, I can't fault you for a gut read, but I'd be cautious about getting reads from PMs, because elims can say things in them that they aren't accountable to the thread to.

4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Devotary I agree with their reasoning.

Could you elaborate here? Also, @Devotary of Spontaneity, it would be nice for you to post some thoughts on the lynch.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

On skimming the thread, it does appear that Matrim and Pyro are at least two of the members of the elim team.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

On skimming the thread, it does appear that Matrim and Pyro are at least two of the members of the elim team.

Nope. Nice try.

[Mat he/him]

43 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

On skimming the thread, it does appear that Matrim and Pyro are at least two of the members of the elim team.

xD

Orlok I would also lynch. In MR42 he guessed the entire elim team in like 2.5 cycles and in this game having earlier suspected Gears and El, now this, I have a hard time believing such a switch.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

xD

Orlok I would also lynch. In MR42 he guessed the entire elim team in like 2.5 cycles and in this game having earlier suspected Gears and El, now this, I have a hard time believing such a switch.

He did say he was taking this game more casually, but that could be cover for him not being NKed.

[Magestar he/him]

Well storms.

I give up.  I'm just done.  

3 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Devotary, Araris, and Mage are my suspects. Araris for similar reasons that Matrim mentioned, and the other two for their lack of DOING anything.

...What?  I've done things.  Maybe not as intense as I was in LG67, but I have neither as much time as I did in LG67, nor the incentive provided by boxings.    I've been fairly active, and I've given reads and stuff.  I've done some analysis.  I was obviously wrong about TJ, but I tried.  I probably won't be as active as I was in LG67 again, at least without another incentive like boxings.

I'd be willing to lynch Pyro or Araris over myself.   I'm only mildly suspicious of Araris.  Pyro feels like they're being too quiet to be an Elim, unless they're trying something different.  I could go either way there, personally.  Orlok it's hard to tell, since he spent the first half of the game doing that thing for Wilson, and spent the second half being really quiet.  I wouldn't be surprised if Orlok is an Elim, but I don't see anything specific to suggest it.

I'll throw a vote on Araris for now.  I'm feeling good vibes from Matrim, and since TJ was my big suspicion and he flipped village, I'm not sure what else to go on.  I'm actually less sure of Matrim's village-ness now, since I was basing a lot of that off his interactions with TJ, who I thought was Elim.  I guess this is what I get for putting too much stock in one suspicion.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Magestar

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I guess the elims decided TJ wasn't going to die anytime soon. I thought it would take a little longer since there were still people pushing for that. Araris and Mage are still plausible elims with Lahilt being a villager. If we just give up trying to learn anything from D1 we can start looking at people like Matrim. He did a squire's work of defending Ventyl D2 where an elim would have still defended Ventyl while wanting him dead. D2 ended pretty ideally for elim!Matrim, but it didn't look intentional for that to happen. There would probably have to be other elims pushing in that direction if Matrim were evil. Of the four people who voted for Ventyl, Orlok, Truthwatcher, Mage, and I are alive. Of those, I'd probably go for Mage as he's also on a previous list. Truthwatcher was involved in the weird fake-vote for Ventyl D1 that, if real, would be suspicious.  I haven't been looking at Orlok recently.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

3 hours ago, Magestar said:

Pyro feels like they're being too quiet to be an Elim, unless they're trying something different

Which'd be weird, as last time it worked pretty well.

Note that no one who's expressed suspicion of me have provided reasons.  @Orlok Tsubodai please explain your vote.