Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Orlok Tsubodai]

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

xD

Orlok I would also lynch. In MR42 he guessed the entire elim team in like 2.5 cycles and in this game having earlier suspected Gears and El, now this, I have a hard time believing such a switch.

OK, Matrim is 100% evil. Will stake my rep on it. Very clear that I haven't been well, and haven't been paying nearly as much attention to this game as normal. Opportunism from Matrim here, which implicates Pyro as well.

[The Young Pyromancer]

You not paying attention to this game is why I'm slightly suspicious, as I wouldn't put it past you to play less to justify your not getting NKed as one of the few players that's active, and one with a scary rep.

See, the thing with Matrim is that you might be an elim, in which you staking your rep means nothing if they flip village. Don't think that's likely, but possible. However, after reading Devotary's post, I realize that, since the main reason to not suspect Matrim is D1 stuff (I think based on Devotary's post, but don't remember for sure), Matrim does seem evil-ish.

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Hasn’t everyone who voted at all this game been involved in a bunch of mislynches and votes on villagers?

Not sure about me. Lemme check.

EDIT: I was involved with Eternum, so there's that, but that was more me voting an inactive than anything.

Also, while I was looking, I noticed that Elbereth voted on dice at one point, one of the few people to do so. And they were NK-ed, despite not being especially trusted. This smells fishy.

Edited July 17, 2020 by The Young Pyromancer

[Mat]

15 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

OK, Matrim is 100% evil. Will stake my rep on it. Very clear that I haven't been well, and haven't been paying nearly as much attention to this game as normal. Opportunism from Matrim here, which implicates Pyro as well.

I’d take that bet because... I’m not evil. I guess that works as an explanation, though. I’ll accept that.

14 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I realize that, since the main reason to not suspect Matrim is D1 stuff (I think based on Devotary's post, but don't remember for sure), Matrim does seem evil-ish.

What D1 stuff? Do you mean me voting on Striker? That wasn’t bussing, just luck. and remember I voted Striker, retracted that vote, and then went back on it at the end of the cycle. Me being Ventyl’s squire was D2, I think. 
 

Edit:

...The suspense!

I feel like I’m going to get hammered in a few hours, or elim vote maniped. If that happens, I wish my fellow active villagers- if there are any left- to look at my later voters.

Of course, Araris might be village and the elims are just gonna let that happen. But I’m going to ignore that possibility in the interest of keeping the game going and the knowledge that a possible mislynch on Araris is better than a definite mislynch on me.

Edited July 17, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Frozen Mint]

Alright I'm not sure if I'll be able to get on tomorrow so I'll place a vote now.

Looking back at the game,I can see where the suspicions of Matrim are coming from. He's been very involved in a lot of unfortunate lynches. But does that make him elim? I dunno. Maybe my confusion is partly because I've read him as village for so long. The main thing I see with Araris is that they've often tried to widen the circle of possible lynch candidates which I would consider a plus. Only focusing on one or two players when it comes to the lynch is a major setback for the village. Mage has seem... excited? I'm not sure if that's the right word for it.  It's how his overall tone has been during this game. Pyro seems to largely have avoided suspicions this game. They voted on me before, seemingly because they disagreed with what I said about lynching inactives, which was a bit strange. Disagreement doesn't seem like solid ground for a lynch. That's the only thing that's really sticking out to me about them. I am curious what went down in the PMs between Matrim and Pyro that made Matrim so trusting of Pyro. Or maybe elim!Matrim is defending village!Pyro to make himself look good? Orlok has reappeared which is... interesting.

Pyro for now. @Matrim's Dice can you tell us more about what exactly, in your PM's, makes you so trusting of Pyro? I feel like your answer will shed some light on which of you is more suspicious. 

 

[Mat]

15 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

Pyro for now. @Matrim's Dice can you tell us more about what exactly, in your PM's, makes you so trusting of Pyro? I feel like your answer will shed some light on which of you is more suspicious. 

He asked me a question and when I chose not to answer he said that made me more likely to be village as an elim would probably answer to look better. I just figured an elim wouldn’t go through that trouble.

Also, I wouldn’t say I’m ‘so trusting of Pyro’, I’d just rather lynch someone else first.

[The Young Pyromancer]

@Frozen Mint note that the people who have played with me for more than one game do not appear to be especially suspicious of me.

I'll look back to see why I voted on you, as I doubt it was that simple; I don't vote on people just because I disagree with them about strategy.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

On 7/17/2020 at 1:30 AM, The Young Pyromancer said:

However, after reading Devotary's post, I realize that, since the main reason to not suspect Matrim is D1 stuff (I think based on Devotary's post, but don't remember for sure)

It was more that any suspicion of Matrim doesn't come until D2, but that's essentially right. I can look at Matrim D1. Matrim was the third vote on Striker when the count was 

TJ Shade (3): Elbereth, Eternum, Ventyl
StrikerEZ (2):  Gears, Sart
Gears (2): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ
Devotary(1): Araris

which is certainly not nothing. Contrary to that post, it wasn't Matrim's last post of the cycle, which was instead stating that a tie would be beneficial. Matrim certainly could have saved Striker, but would have needed to explain the difference between doing so and previously stating an unwillingness to vote for TJ, Gears, or Ventyl D1. Elim!Matrim was kind of backing themselves into a corner by saying that in addition to announcing no more posts that turn, although Matrim could have voted for me and chose not to. It would definitely be risky to vote for a teammate here. Slightly less risky if Araris was also an elim planning to switch from me to TJ; worth noting that Matrim is currently voting for Araris.

Actual cycle's vote count is 

Pyro(3): Araris, Orlok, Mint
Araris(2): Matrim, Mage
Matrim(2): Pyro, Devotary

I'm not seeing a strong link for Matrim and Pyro both being evil, @Orlok Tsubodai if you'd like to expound. The closest things I can remember are Pyro asking for Matrim's opinions a couple of times and Matrim noticing Pyro say 'when I flip elim' but not saying anything about it. I'll vote Matrim for now and see where things stand closer to rollover. There don't seem to be any other active players who haven't voted yet, but @Illwei, @Lord_Silberfarben, @The_Truthwatcher and @xinoehp512 have at least been on the Shard recently.

[---]

Technically I'm constantly on here as I don't ever close this tab but-

Matrim and Pyro were my main suspects a while ago, so I'm going to Vote Araris because...that makes sense to me. I think. The dozens of sticky notes I have are starting to not make sense.

[Coffeecat]

yes, i have been on the shard recently

I really think most of the people not voting on pyro are elims protecting their own.

usually end game votes on elims end this way, with the elims mustering all they can to deflect from their own.

either they survive now, or they loose soon

Edited July 18, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben
forgot to vote lol

[Mat]

49 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

either they survive now, or they loose soon

Well I mean the elims have only lost one person, so they probably aren’t too close to loosing.

I don’t really love reading people based on their suspicions of me, but there comes a point where that’s all I got. It could be possible that elim!Devotary is jumping on the mislynch train on me, but I dunno. I feel so alone right now xD. Except Illwei, I guess. That’s good.

@Straw, could I have a vote count?

[Straw]

30 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Straw, could I have a vote count?

The Young Pyromancer (4): Araris Valerian, Frozen Mint, Lord_Silberfarben, Orlok Tsubodai
Araris Valerian (3): Illwei, Magestar, Matrim's Dice
Matrim's Dice (2): Devotary of Spontaneity, The Young Pyromancer

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I don’t really love reading people based on their suspicions of me, but there comes a point where that’s all I got. It could be possible that elim!Devotary is jumping on the mislynch train on me, but I dunno. I feel so alone right now xD.

You're were never in serious danger, never led the vote tally at any point. You had the potential to die, but recent votes seem to have decided you'll survive the day. I feel not great about the people voting for Pyro and Araris. I think I'd be okay with either dying though. 

[Mat]

3 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

You're were never in serious danger, never led the vote tally at any point. You had the potential to die, but recent votes seem to have decided you'll survive the day.

Yeah. I didn’t know the vote count at that point though

5 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I feel not great about the people voting for Pyro and Araris. I think I'd be okay with either dying though. 

Agreed here.

[Straw]

The turn is over!

[Straw]

There was some strange woman in your group called Pyria. She kept on saying she was a "pyromancer", which seemed like some sort of strange Dustbringer or Skybreaker. However, she never displayed any evidence of these abilities, which was rather suspicious. Eventually, you resolved to burn her, and if she really did have the strange abilities she claimed, she'd be able to survive easily. Unfortunately for her, she did not come out of the blaze you lit.

---

The Young Pyromancer has died! He was a Refugee.

Vote Count:

The Young Pyromancer (4): Araris Valerian, Frozen Mint, Lord_Silberfarben, Orlok Tsubodai
Araris Valerian (2): Illwei, Magestar, Matrim's Dice
Matrim's Dice (1): Devotary of Spontaneity, The Young Pyromancer

GM Notes:

-The night will end on July 19th, at 1:00 PM EST.

-Don't forget to get your actions in!

-PMs are closed!

Player List:

Spoiler

A Joe in the Bush Refugee

@Araris Valerian

Ashbringer Refugee

@Devotary of Spontaneity

Elbereth Refugee

Eternum Refugee Skybreaker

@shanerockes

@Frozen Mint

Gears Refugee

@Illwei

@Kynedath

Lahilt Refugee

@Lord_Silberfarben

@Magestar

@Matrim's Dice

@Orlok Tsubodai

Sart Refugee

StrikerEZ Diagramist

The Young Pyromancer Refugee

@The_Truthwatcher

TJ Shade Refugee Bondsmith

Ventyl Refugee Edgedancer

@xinoehp512

@Zillah

 

[Mat]

Smh. What did I say... Oh well. 

Assuming 4 elims left, we are at 9-4 which isn’t terrible. But that leaves only 2 more mislynches before lylo. So we need to lynch an elim next cycle.

Edit: Also, a vote was soothed both off Araris and off me. Not sure what that means, but it’s probably safe to say one if those was elim.

Edited July 18, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[---]

I kinda thought Pyro was a KR

Also are we assuming that the Elims used a vote manip on Araris? or was there a different conclusion last time it was used on gears?

Edited July 18, 2020 by Illwei

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also are we assuming that the Elims used a vote manip on Araris? or was there a different conclusion last time it was used on gears?

That’s what I’m assuming. I can’t think of any reason the elims would use the vote manip on me, other then to cast suspicion.

[---]

Oops wait I misread the surges. We have two vote manip people left if they haven't squired. Well, assuming there's exactly one of each KR. and forgetting about transportation. And Transformation, I guess. Also are we told if people are squires? because we haven't seen any squires? 

[Araris Valerian]

I'm not so sure that the elims have vote manip though, because they likely would have used it to attempt to save Striker. But I also can't see any reason for a villager to do either of the vote removals that happened. I suppose since we have a Highstorm tomorrow, they could just be using their charges for no reason.

[Mat]

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not so sure that the elims have vote manip though, because they likely would have used it to attempt to save Striker.

I’m decently sure it was generally agreed that the elims has some vote manip, probably Windrunner, as balance, and that the vote manip in question was inactive for C1. That does raise some questions on who that is, though, as the inactivity rates have only gone up. From this springs my meta theory that shanerockes is the elim vote manip that was originally Fifth, but I have literally no evidence for that.

3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

But I also can't see any reason for a villager to do either of the vote removals that happened. I suppose since we have a Highstorm tomorrow, they could just be using their charges for no reason.

I doubt they used their charges for no reason, especially since there is stilll another night before the Highstorm. Maybe the village vote manip still alive- my guess would be TJ’s squire, following the one of each Radiant in the game theory- thinks I am good. (Thanks)

So the elim Windrunner soothed a vote off elim!you, and the village Bondsmith squire  (or Stoneward, I guess) soothed a vote off me. Imo that’s the most likely possibility.

Edit: Now that I think about it, we’ve gotten insanely lucky with our mislynches. Most have been vanilla. There are probably 7 Radiants left- one for each order not already dead- and with 13 people left that’s over half, plus squires.

Edited July 19, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Araris Valerian]

15 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

There are probably 7 Radiants left- one for each order not already dead- and with 13 people left that’s over half, plus squires.

I find this extraordinarily unlikely. If all 10 orders were present, the the game would end with 20/21 players having roles, once enough squiring happened. I'd wager 2 KR's left, if we grant the elims a vote manip one, then we also have the person who opened PMs once, who may also be an elim.

[Mat]

Just now, Araris Valerian said:

I find this extraordinarily unlikely. If all 10 orders were present, the the game would end with 20/21 players having roles, once enough squiring happened. I'd wager 2 KR's left, if we grant the elims a vote manip one, then we also have the person who opened PMs once, who may also be an elim.

I guess it could be that each surge is present, not each Radiant.

[Araris Valerian]

Even that doesn't work, if we are assuming an elim Windrunner. They share a surge with Bondsmiths. I don't think the distribution is anything that we would be likely to predict.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Well we presumably don't have anyone with Transformation since we haven't had any alignment or surge scans. I guess it could be a complete inactive, but that's almost the same as nonexistent at this point. Both vote manips could be elim, Windrunner + 50% squire, but that would probably mean giving up on the KR's Gravitation kill. On the potentially village side we've got Bondsmith squire, Stoneward, and 50% Stoneward squire, all of which could theoretically be evil, but I doubt the elims would have had a Windrunner and a Stoneward and neither of them bothered to save Striker. Whoever removed a vote on Matrim probably didn't notice the final vote count, or was willing to burn a stormlight to pretend they didn't. Araris was in a bit more danger.