Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Well, I propose we add Devotary, Pyro, and Truthwatcher all to the list. It’s kind of silly to only consider 2/19 people when nobody (to my knowledge) has stated a solid reason for suspecting on of them. The above have been posting and/or voting but haven’t really gone out on a limb at all. Given that we’ve hit two villagers in the recent lynches, that seems like a safe place for elims to hide.
Mat he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 I don’t like the idea of voting for inactives. It feels like a game of chance if we do that, which was one of the reasons I disliked the Eternum swing. We can’t rely on D1 posts for analysis because they were all made in the air of not knowing anything, so voting for semi-active players has a better chance of success.
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 On 7/5/2020 at 10:05 AM, Ashbringer said: I’m suspicious of Ventyl, but I’m having trouble seeing how the Elims could let him be that suspicious. There’s no real way to prove or disprove what he’s been saying. But reading an inactive as slight Village just adds more to the pot... @Fifth Scholar Gears, making lynch chains isn’t generally a good idea. TJ and Ventyl are mutually very suspicious of each other: that doesn’t mean they have opposing alignments. Just because a Ventyl lynch flips Village doesn’t mean TJ is Elim, it just means we have to look more carefully at who voted where and make a decision from there. Slight village read on ash for this. Elims would want to encourage chains, and Ash doesn't seem to be the kind to 48 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Well, I propose we add Devotary, Pyro, and Truthwatcher all to the list. It’s kind of silly to only consider 2/19 people when nobody (to my knowledge) has stated a solid reason for suspecting on of them. The above have been posting and/or voting but haven’t really gone out on a limb at all. Given that we’ve hit two villagers in the recent lynches, that seems like a safe place for elims to hide. Um, noo? Devotary always does that. And besides, if you look at my history, I'm not afraid to hide as an elim. If anything, that should give you a village read. Also, why'd you remove Ash and yourself from that list? I'm not so suspicious of El anymore now that I've had time to think about things. Still a little sus of dice. TJ, you've played with me as an elim twice now, once where we worked closely together. What's your read on me?
Mat he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 @The Young Pyromancer, Ashbringer was NKd. They were village. I suppose this could give Pyro a slight village read... 1
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Oh, Had that quoted for a while, just forgot to use it.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 I should get the rest of Gear's posts here (wow, he's really prolific): Quote TJ took a vote off himself, and someone else took a vote off him. Would anyone like to fess up to the deed? NAI, and cleared up by TJ also. Quote On 7/3/2020 at 10:20 AM, TJ Shade said: No I took both the votes off myself. One using Adhesion and one using Tension. I was scared of getting role-blocked or someone voting late on, so I didn't want to take my chance. What use is an extra charge if I'm dead? Ah. Thank you for clarifying. However, as you have claimed to be a Bondsmith and are completely out of Stormlight, you are now extremely vulnerable to elim kills. If anyone wants to protect TJ, go ahead. This makes me trust TJ a little more, since if TJ and Striker were elims, TJ would probably only use one charge of Stormlight to save himself [and keep an elim Knight in play]. As such, I will not vote for TJ. @Ventyl, squire someone tonight. I had a similar response to TJ, so village read Quote People with Progression, consider protecting TJ. This will allow us to know if the elims have Gravitation. Do not tell the thread you are doing so. NAI (or maybe slight village, since he misunderstood Gravitation) Quote On 7/3/2020 at 10:39 AM, Matrim's Dice said: I already said that I didn't reload the page before posting. It didn't exist before. Nothing here Quote On 7/3/2020 at 10:42 AM, Straw said: TJ is correct here. From the changes/clarifications: Progression does not actually "alter" a Gravitation boosted kill, it just heals the person who was hit by the kill. Ah. That makes things simpler. TJ is probably village [see above], so people with Progression, protect him. We really need a way to coordinate things. Just a repeat of earlier post reading TJ village Quote The following is an analysis of the votes on Striker: Sart: Disliked the distracting discussion concerning mechanics. TJ: Self-preservation. Joe: Didn't want to vote TJ. Matrim: Didn't want to vote TJ. The following is an analysis of the votes on TJ: Araris: Found TJ more suspicious than Ventyl [at the time, Striker was not a contender for the lynch Elbereth: Found TJ the most suspicious out of the contenders for the lynch at the time [Ventyl, Striker, Gears, TJ]. Notably, El read Striker as very mild village. Eternum: Didn't like TJ's retraction off of Ashbringer. Striker: Self-preservation and didn't like TJ's votehopping. While this is interesting, Gears never followed it up. mild elim read. Quote On 7/3/2020 at 11:16 AM, TJ Shade said: So my paranoid self was sorta right.My initial two suspicions were Ashbringer and Striker. Striker because he asked that specific question about Abrasion-Progression-Kill. He gave a very clear answer so I was convinced. I'll have to go back and check what exactly the question was. The question was what would happen if a person using Abrasion was targeted by Progression and a Gravitation-boosted kill. The answer was that the person would die because Progression wouldn't work. NAI Quote On 7/3/2020 at 11:36 AM, The Young Pyromancer said: Agree re:the Joe clear. To screw with the numbers a bit, Progressionists, consider protecting Joe, as it's likely the elims'll attack them since TJ'll be protected. Actually, Progressionists, flip a coin. Heads, protect TJ. Tails, protect Joe. Odds are both of them get protected. NAI Quote The vote history of D1. Please note that I might have missed a retraction as green looks nearly black to my eyes. El votes TJ Shade with no reasoning. Ventyl votes Joe with a poke. Araris votes Ventyl with no reasoning. El retracts TJ and votes Ventyl because of a fixation on roles. El retracts Ventyl and votes Matrim because Matrim repeated what El said. Striker votes Gears because of Gears' paranoia. Orlok votes Gears because of pre-game analysis. Gears votes El because of pressure from El and Orlok. Sart votes Striker because of Striker's focus on roles. Matrim votes Striker because Sart makes sense. TJ votes Ash for approximating the exact player number Ventyl retracts Joe because that lynch will go nowhere. Ventyl votes TJ Shade for being frustrated about their claim. Eternum votes Ventyl for being confusing. TJ retracts Ash because they overthought it. El votes TJ because she finds TJ most suspicious. Matrim retracts Striker because that lynch isn't going anywhere [ironic in hindsight] Gears votes Striker because Striker is the most suspicious. Araris retracts Ventyl and votes Devotary because they find staying neutral inherently elimy Eternum retracts Ventyl and votes TJ because they trust Ventyl and TJ's retraction seems odd. Pyro votes Ventyl because Ventyl's behavior is similar to prior elim games Pyro retracts Ventyl because of the plan. Matrim votes Striker because of their vote on Gears. Araris retracts Devotary and votes TJ, citing previous reasoning [that I can't find] TJ votes Gears for self-preservation. TJ retracts Gears and votes Striker for self-preservation. Lahlit votes Ventyl because they are suspicious. TJ retracts Striker and votes Ventyl. Ventyl retracts TJ and votes Joe because there is framing potential. Striker retracts Gears and votes TJ for self-preservation. TJ retracts Ventyl and votes Striker for self-preservation. Gears retracts Striker to maintain the tie. NAI (just summary) Quote On 7/3/2020 at 4:04 PM, Ashbringer said: Gears (et all) - just a question, but is there a significant difference in the vote analysis between a “poke vote” and a “vote with no reasoning”? The poke vote is one that is explicitly stated to be a poke placed early in the turn. A vote with no reasoning is one that is simply placed with no words to justify. [Like Elbereth's vote on TJ to start. It was just placed. No reasoning, no stating it was a poke, nothing] NAI Quote If we have no suspicions by the end of D2, TJ would be an acceptable lynch, especially considering that to keep him alive until the next highstorm, we will need 3 charges of precious Stormlight. However, I am loath to lynch a confirmed Knight Radiant when there are alternative lynch candidates, such as Ventyl. This is odd. Why lynch (or consider lynching) one of the only players that has done something kind of concrete toward confirming themselves as a villager? mild elim Quote On 7/3/2020 at 4:56 PM, Araris Valerian said: Gears said he wanted a tie, but that could just have been an excuse to retract from Striker. Also, I think that given the attention that had been drawn to Striker, we likely would have lynched him in the next couple of cycles regardless (For comparison, Gears has already suggested lynching Ventyl and TJ, the other two people we focused on). So this may have been an attempt at distancing as well. Striker and TJ appeared equally suspicious, and I wanted a tie. However, nothing I say can convince you of this point as I could simply be engaging in the art of lying, and so I will simply acknowledge your suspicions and ask if there is a way I could clear my good name. Yeah, so I've already reneged on my C1 suspicion of Gears. However, it's a little odd how Gears doesn't really try and explain himself more here. Not sure that it's elim, but it's weird. Quote On 7/3/2020 at 5:49 PM, The Young Pyromancer said: But if two people are equally suspicious, why would you want to leave the lynch up to possibly elim vote manip? Through analysing the vote manipulation, we gain information. If I picked one of the two at random to lynch and that person was a villager, we would learn nothing. For instance, we learned that the elim team is unable or unwilling to vanish two votes or redirect a vote. Here's the explanation for the tie, although I don't really agree with this. Quote On 7/3/2020 at 7:02 PM, Ventyl said: I don’t think I should squire actually. You seem quite adamant about having me squire. Is this elim!Gears trying to get a kill on me? Thoughts anyone? If you're not going to squire, don't tell the thread. That way, the elims will know and kill you. Just stop telling the thread your plans. NAI, although I heartily agree. Quote @Ventyl, you are worthless if you do not manage to squire or act before your death. If you do not squire and you are killed, the village is left without a Knight. I expect you to squire. Anyone you want, just don't tell the thread. New squire, do not reveal your identity. That would undermine the entire point of the exercise [keeping a role alive] as the elims would then know your identity. NAI Quote On 7/3/2020 at 7:59 PM, Ventyl said: Well if the Squire gets my less useful Surge, Abrasion, then my role isn’t really kept alive. I propose lynching Ventyl tomorrow, if only because his incessant information reveals are infuriating. NAI Quote I would like to apologize to Ventyl. I have behaved in a manner that does not reflect the trivial nature of games. I shall attempt to move on from the Ventyl discussion as it really doesn't matter what they do, since the only way to verify their actions is to risk the life of someone else. For now, we should be attempting to find alternative lynch candidates. I can't think of any, sadly. Does anyone else have any major suspicions that do not include Ventyl, TJ, or Sart [my current "don't want to lynch" list]? NAI Quote Does anyone have any ideas on who to lynch tomorrow? The only certain thing is that I don't want to lynch TJ, and probably not Sart. There are 2.5 hours left in the cycle, and we have absolutely no suspicions [or we do and no one's said anything]. We've just mentioned how TJ is soft-cleared. Interesting shift from not lynching Ventyl to being okay with it in this post. Not sure what to make of that. Quote On 7/4/2020 at 7:59 AM, TJ Shade said: @Gears, people tend to not give out their reads or state suspicion during the night cycle for the fear of getting killed if they are right. I have no such qualms. (I'm just joking, Progressionist pls save me xD) How disappointing. Given your reasoning above, Ventyl does seem slightly more likely to be an elim. I'll have to reread Eternum's posts, as I can't remember anything they've said. I don't know about El, but if no lynch candidates come to light by the end of D2, perhaps. Here Gears is willing to lynch Elbereth/Ventyl during C2. Still pretty NAI Quote On 7/4/2020 at 8:14 AM, Frozen Mint said: A village vote manip was just as likely to save Striker as it was to save you. I don't see how my stance was pro-Striker. I'm confused? Joe said that the fact there was no vote manip done to save Striker means that the elims have no vote manip. I was refuting him. No vote manip in Striker's favor isn't a confirmation that the elims have no vote manip abilities. Which is what you're saying here, just with different reasoning? TJ is saying that your statement implies the existence of elim vote manip, possibly as an attempt to make the elims appear more threatening. I don't think this is especially telling, considering that I mentioned the incapability or unwillingness of elims to vote manip in an earlier post, which Joe replied to and agreed with, yet somehow cut out the "unwilling" part. Not much here. Quote On 7/4/2020 at 8:55 AM, Ventyl said: EDIT: The one flaw in this is that they let the tie on Striker happen. Though, this could be elim Knight!Gears and other elims basically saying they don’t need roleless person. That’s just me tinfoiling, but it could be something to look into if anyone role scans Gears and they come up as a Knight. Though, an alignment scan would probably be easier anyway. If I was an elim, wouldn't I keep my vote on Striker to gain some credit in the eyes of the village? My retraction to maintain the tie has brought suspicion upon me, and thus if I was an elim, retracting Striker was a strictly sub-optimal play, especially since TJ claimed Bondsmith well before the end of the turn. I hadn't actually noticed TJ's role claim earlier. This is a good point, although it isn't AI Quote As it stands, TJ is out of Stormlight, so he is harmless until the next highstorm [D4]. As such I think we can hold off on killing him until we have run out of other suspects. Do we have any other suspects? This is a repeat of a question that Gears already asked. Not sure why. Gears seems somewhat reluctant to come up with his own suspicious, however. Quote On 7/4/2020 at 9:38 AM, Ventyl said: I think if we do, it would give a lot of information. For instance, if he flips elim then it probably clears Gears. If he doesn’t then I get lynched anyways. If he flips elim!Bondsmith then the elims have probably lost their main source of vote/action manipulation. If he flips elim, but not Bondsmith, then we know that the elims have some sort of vote manipulation. If flips elim!Truthwatcher/Edgedancer then we get rid their protection, because I doubt they have two. If he flips elim!Windrunner, then they no longer have Gravitation, which basically means we win (Assuming he doesn’t Squire, or if he does, they don’t get Gravitation). If he flips village as any of these roles, then we are in trouble, but the game isn’t completely lost. It’s a high risk, high reward situation. You are correct, however TJ is temporarily declawed until D4, so he is a low-priority lynch. If we don't find any more urgent suspicions [the only suspicion is Ventyl at the moment], we can lynch him. NAI Quote On 7/4/2020 at 9:49 AM, Ventyl said: Yes, but still, if my Squiring doesn’t work we lose one of my Surges. What? If your squiring fails, nothing happens. You just don't squire someone. NAI Quote On 7/4/2020 at 9:57 AM, TJ Shade said: Alright, guys. Do make sure to visit my 3 earlier posts if I die. And do lynch Ventyl when I flip village. Will do. I think lynching Ventyl is a higher priority than lynching TJ at the moment. This is a very different tone than earlier, when Gears put Ventyl on his no-lynch list. It's still not entirely clear at this point whether or not Ventyl is a KR. But I don't think an elim would have such a dramatic shift of views over just a few posts during the night cycle. Village read. Day 2: Quote I am going to place my vote on Ventyl for now, as they've been suspicious for a while. Would anyone would like to propose an alternate lynch target? This is consistent with last cycle, NAI Quote On 7/4/2020 at 11:09 AM, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Does squiring take up two stormlight charges? The rules only mention it requiring two actions, so Radiants can't take any other actions the night they squire someone. Squiring does not take Stormlight, which only makes me more suspicious of Ventyl. NAI Quote @Straw, does squiring take up one's charges? NAI (although you could argue that the elims probably know this by now) Quote On 7/4/2020 at 11:34 AM, Straw said: No. See the clarification document: As such, Ventyl either did not squire and used actions instead, or is simply lying about not having Stormlight for some nefarious purpose. Apparently incorrect. Quote On 7/4/2020 at 11:41 AM, TJ Shade said: This is not exactly correct. He pseudo-claimed for no reason at all, then hid behind his claim basically holding his KR tag as shield. I claimed only to explain my missing votes so you do not think I was saved by elims. And I'm fine with lynching other people from my suspicion list from N2 thread, but he's the most suspicious of the list and I'm sure he's an elim KR, a powerful one too. Therefore, I'm scared of letting him live even a cycle longer than necessary. I'm really unable to understand the hesitancy of others to lynch him, which only adds to my suspicion as part of the silence maybe from elims. Are you all not seeing what I am? His only defence seems to be "This is my play style." while I've tried to give the most logical reasons and y'all come up with impossible situations to try and put the suspicion back on me. I trust TJ more than Ventyl for precisely this reason. NAI Quote Reads list. Ventyl: Mild elim because of all the confusing behaviors. Alignment mutually exclusive with TJ's. Primary lynch target. TJ: Mild village because he could have used 1 charge instead of 2 to ensure survival if he was an elim. Alignment mutually exclusive with Ventyl's. Ashbringer: Very slight village because I agree with many of their opinions and they haven't been suspicious. Everyone else gets a null read until I can go reread the thread because I can't remember anything they've said. Special mention to Devotary, whose hypothesized elim team made me laugh. Only thing here is that "alignment mutually exclusive" probably means "not both elim". Village read on Ash was correct, I'd give this slight village. Quote On 7/4/2020 at 0:17 PM, The Young Pyromancer said: I agree, and a couple other people have expressed suspicion too, but no one has really followed up on it. I find that WEIRD, especially because no one responded to your post last night, even though you're a very good player. Elbereth, for now. We are not lynching El because we can learn much more from a Ventyl lynch. If Ventyl flips elim, TJ is more cleared. If Ventyl flips village, we're lynching TJ. It also has ramifications for my alignment as well as Ash's. El's lynch reveals nothing other than El's alignment. On 7/4/2020 at 0:18 PM, Ventyl said: Gears TJ Shade Is no one going to point out that they, only a single turn ago said they would not lynch me? And now are contradicting themselves? I’m honestly so frustrated about this entire situation! At this point I give up, if y’all want to lose your Edgedancer, have fun being killed by Gravitation boosted elims for the rest of the game! I don’t see any other way to convince y’all I’m not an elim, so at this point I’m going to be offline for the rest of the turn. If I somehow live through this and Gears lives, I’m sure they’ll find some other reason to get me killed. I sincerely hope that whenever I flip village though, I get apologies, and that y’all lynch Gears and TJ, because I feel like it’s obvious one of them is an elim trying to get a mislynch on the village Edgedancer. I wasn't going to lynch you until you lied about squiring or Stormlight. Okay, there are a few things here. The first statement about successively lynch Ventyl and then TJ is problematic. Also, the statement about not lynching Ventyl is just false, see earlier. This post reads elim to me. Quote On 7/4/2020 at 0:27 PM, Ventyl said: l DIDN”T LIE! I misunderstood the storming rules! You said that Straw told you it takes your charges. While this might all be a terrible misunderstanding, the risk caused by letting you live is too high. NAI Quote On 7/4/2020 at 0:38 PM, Araris Valerian said: What if both Ventyl and TJ flip village? I don't think we learn much of anything in that case. Then we learn that my suspicions were wrong and I give you permission to act upon your suspicions. This is the sort of thing that keeps throwing me off in Gears's posts. Probably NAI, but the fact Gears doesn't give a better explanation might be a slight village read. Quote On 7/4/2020 at 0:56 PM, Araris Valerian said: I'm not sure that this is a helpful attitude to have. We could act on different suspicions now, and avoid what I consider to be a double mislynch. I think people often have the mindset that lynching X will give us lots of information, but really, it's generally more accurate to say that X flipping elim will give us said information. Assume Ventyl is a mislynch. Ashbringer, TJ and I are implicated as fervent defenders of TJ. Assume TJ is also a mislynch. Ashbringer and I are implicated further. Assume your suspicions are mislynches. You are implicated as a fervent defender of this course of action. Knowledge concerning 3 people and near certainty concerning 2 people or knowledge concerning 1 person. Yeah, I don't really agree here. Still, probably NAI. Quote My alignment has no bearing on TJ's and Ventyl's. The converse is completely false because I have adamantly defended TJ and vilified Ventyl. As such, Ventyl and TJ should be lynched before myself. If Ventyl is a villager, we will lynch TJ. If TJ is a villager, we will lynch me. I don't know what you're planning to do if I flip village. Also strongly disagree, also NAI Quote On 7/4/2020 at 2:21 PM, Elbereth said: Gears, I think you're severely underestimating the amount of information that could be garnered from your flip / from flips in general. I might lay that out more clearly later if I have the time. If you think lynching me would be beneficial, you have my consent to do so. However, I still think that the Ventyl lynch is more beneficial. NAI Quote On 7/4/2020 at 4:50 PM, Ashbringer said: And, now that Ventyl claims an Abrasion user, that possible surge pool shrunk from 10 to a probable set of 3. So I wouldn’t advise a squire claiming at this point, but I stand by that it would help clear Ventyl and possibly his squire as well. Ventyl claimed Edgedancer, so the probable Surge set is just Abrasion and Progression. NAI Quote If he did, I missed it, but that’s the most likely set. I would hope he wouldn’t claim Dustbringer... This turn, bottom of page 1. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 9:16 AM, Ventyl said: Gears: Elim. They’ve seemingly tunneled on me this entire game. Normally, I’d say that’s pretty NAI or even Village, but they’ve done some questionable things along with it. Namely, last turn they acknowledged that they were tunneling and that they’d look for another lynch target. This turn though, after a few people had basically said that they would want to lynch me, they suddenly change their mind. This seems like an elim seeing the village still pushing for a lynch, and realizing that they could seem a lot like a villager if they went along with the majority of people and go back to trying to kill me. I said I would be open to another lynch target. The only other one thus far is me. As such, I must lynch you, since I am not suspicious of myself. EDIT: Sidenote, if I flip village, please lynch Ventyl. If Ventyl flips village, please lynch TJ. If all of us flip village, then everything I know is wrong, up is down, left is right, and everything is awful. I think everything is awful. Quote On 7/5/2020 at 9:44 AM, The_Truthwatcher said: I don't understand why more people are not suspicious of Ventyl? Can somebody explain why so many are reading Ventyl as village? I have no venusian idea. I think Ventyl is an elim because of TJ's excellent reasoning that everyone seems to be ignoring. I've taken some suspicion for reasons unknown. If Ventyl flips village, lynch me. If I flip village, lynch Ventyl. EDIT: A summary of the charges brought against Ventyl: Claiming when the general consensus was against it, lying about squiring [said it took Stormlight], not getting voted on by Striker [which would have ensured Striker's survival as TJ had a vote on Ventyl]. Charges against me: Attacking Ventyl. I think Gears isn't really taking into account the severe risk for elim!Ventyl to have done the things he did (as evidenced by his subsequent lynch). Also, Gears doesn't say anything about the D1 lynch here. mild elim read. Quote On 7/5/2020 at 10:00 AM, Ventyl said: Hey, I wasn’t lying, I misunderstood the rules... what does no one understand about that! We cannot know if you are telling the truth. As such, we must assume the worst. If this assumption leads us to a contradiction, we will lynch the one who caused it [in this case, me] Disagree, NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 10:05 AM, Ashbringer said: Gears, making lynch chains isn’t generally a good idea. TJ and Ventyl are mutually very suspicious of each other: that doesn’t mean they have opposing alignments. Just because a Ventyl lynch flips Village doesn’t mean TJ is Elim, it just means we have to look more carefully at who voted where and make a decision from there. All of my statements are as a last resort. Do not enact these schemes unless no lynch targets avail themselves. On 7/5/2020 at 10:15 AM, TJ Shade said: Yeah, it doesn't make sense. Safe to say I'll be looking very closely at people who voted for you, if you flip village. I thank you for your valiant efforts, and hope you will not succumb to death before your attempt can be realized. Okay, where did the first statement come from? That is a major tone shift, and reads really elim to me. Quote On 7/5/2020 at 10:23 AM, The_Truthwatcher said: I will admit that Gears advoacting for TJs lynch rubbed me the wrong way, especially since TJ is a pretty strong village read. However, that is all speculation and right now Ventyl is much more likely to be elim. I too think TJ is a villager, and I shall revise my lynch train from Ventyl-TJ to Ventyl-Gears instead. The general populace may lynch TJ in their own time. It's not really ever helpful to suggest to other people that they lynch you. Unless maybe you have claimed a scan role and want people to stop doubting you. This is a NAI thing, but you should probably never do this ever. Quote On 7/5/2020 at 10:33 AM, Matrim's Dice said: Edit: Anyone else find it odd that Gears put himself in his own lynch train plans? I am perfectly amenable to dying. If I get lynched and flip village, lynch Ventyl. If Ventyl gets lynched and flips village, lynch me. I look forward to rambling in the dead doc. Same as above Quote On 7/5/2020 at 10:38 AM, Matrim's Dice said: See, this is VERY odd. Let's assume village!Gears. With the above statement, Gears is saying they would be perfectly fine with two mislynches in a row, knowing their own alignment. That makes no sense. I'm fairly certain that village!Gears would notice this, as in the QF they were quite observant. This is exactly why i'm suspicious of Gears. If Ventyl flips village, you would lynch me regardless. I wouldn't be happy about it, but it would happen, so I instead am telling you to do so in an attempt to take control over my own demise, which is mildly cathartic. It would also provide a large quantity of information, as on my flip, the people who voted on me in this cycle would be implicated. The only other lynch target post-Ventyl is TJ, and he is more trusted than me, so lynching me would benefit the village more than lynching TJ. As in all things, these plans are a LAST RESORT to be used if no one has a better idea. More of the last resort stuff. But Gears isn't looking very hard anywhere else. Quote As the vote stands, I will be lynched. Of course, there is an entire day left in the turn, so that is subject to change, but I feel that we should plan a course of action for after my death. Does anyone have any suggestions? As for a defense, I have been given no accusations to defend against. My only crime appears to be tunnelling on Ventyl after stating that I wouldn't do so. Any attempts to mend the situation will only worsen it, as maintaining my position will worsen my status in the eyes of many and retracting my position will make me appear to have a survival wish, which tends to afflict those who engage in friendly acts of nightly slaughter. If anyone would like to clarify their suspicions into something I can mount a defense against, that would be much appreciated. NAI. Quote On 7/5/2020 at 4:08 PM, The Young Pyromancer said: @Gears, you're online. What are your thoughts on a Matrim lynch, now or in the future? I am not against it. If we are ever left with no lynch targets, this seems like a perfectly fine option. However, based on the current votes, shifting the lynch onto Matrim now seems both difficult and inadvisable, especially considering that the Ventyl lynch is far more pressing. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 4:12 PM, The Young Pyromancer said: Why more pressing? If he's a radiant, he already would've squired. He does still have Stormlight. If he is being truthful about being an Edgedancer, he's harmless, but if he's lying, he could have a kill. Also, he could have lied about squiring. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 4:27 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Edit: @Gears, if you think it's a possibility that Ventyl is lying about being an Edgedancer, why do you also think he's an elim? If he's a Dustbringer he most certainly isn't an elim because I very much doubt the elim team would have two kills. That was a hypothetical that is very much unlikely. I do not actively believe him to be lying, but the possibility bears pondering. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 5:31 PM, Matrim's Dice said: Hear me out folks. Here is my true defense of Ventyl. He squired me. He is an Edgedancer. I am village. He squired me. There is literally no reason for Ventyl to have squired a villager as an elim. Ventyl is village. Any questions? @TJ Shade, @Orlok Tsubodai, @The Young Pyromancer, @The_Truthwatcher-what do you have to say about this? Let's lynch Gears! C'mon! An argument could be made for the fact that Ventyl squired you to gain your trust and create an adamant defender. Agree with Gears here. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 5:36 PM, Matrim's Dice said: That sounds very complicated. Coming from you, who I greatly suspect, it’s not a good look. In addition, Ventyl and I could both be villagers. If you wish to lynch me, you have my consent to proceed, but you need a plan for when I flip village. I recommend lynching Ventyl and Matrim posthaste. This one comes off as sort of elim to me. It's the first time Gears seems to really consider Ventyl being village, rather than thinking of it as a hypothetical. Also, @Gears, what happens if we lynch you without your consent? Quote On 7/5/2020 at 5:54 PM, Matrim's Dice said: I’d almost endorse this if you flip village. I’d be so shocked I wouldn’t know what else to do. Ventyl first though I would indeed endorse Ventyl first, as you being an elim only makes sense if Ventyl is an elim. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 6:57 PM, Ashbringer said: While I agree with the basic premise that Elim!Ventyl could squire Village!Mat to pocket him, this post makes no sense. You state that Ventyl could be village alongside you, but then say we should lynch Ventyl immediately after you flip Village? Why? Non-sequitur. If I flip village, the best course of action is to investigate those who voted on me, and the most suspicous of those is Ventyl. Again, I don't really agree. It's easy for the elims to let villagers lynch each other all day without getting too involved. Quote On 7/5/2020 at 7:11 PM, The_Truthwatcher said: Matrim's Dice has been squired by Ventyl and this point I am inclined to trust them. Would an elim be so aggressive in defending their teammate? Elim!Ventyl could have squired village!Matrim to appear more trustworthy. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 7:18 PM, The_Truthwatcher said: I know this, I am inclined to trust Matrim. I still think it is likely for Ventyl to be an elim but Matrim is leaning village. Ah. Language is difficult at the best of times. My apologies. NAI Quote On 7/5/2020 at 8:16 PM, Ashbringer said: Also, Ventyl’s vote on you is easily explained as self-preservation, which shouldn’t be a main reason to lynch anybody. You are still the main lynch alternative. Out of all the players, I find Ventyl most suspicious, with Matrim in a distant second. However, the possibility that Ventyl is a villager should not be ignored. My suspicions can and will be wrong [as evidenced by QF45]. All eventualities should be planned for. To better explain my thought process, I have made a decision matrix based on the 2 axis of lynching Ventyl and Ventyl being an elim. Ventyl is lynched, elim: We get an elim. Very good. Ventyl is lynched, villager: We mislynch, but we have a lot of material to work with. Not that awful. Ventyl is not lynched, elim: We have let an elim slip under the radar. Very bad. Ventyl is not lynched, villager: We have let a villager live. Moderately alright. In my opinion, it is better to lynch Ventyl. The worst scenario occurs when we do not lynch, the best scenario occurs when we do lynch, and the other two scenarios aren't that bad. Well, we lynched Ventyl, and then discussion kinda died. I read this post as slight elim. Quote On 7/5/2020 at 11:48 PM, Elbereth said: like specifically @Gears even if Ventyl is evil why would you automatically assume he squired a villager to pocket them? I shall make yet another decision matrix, this time based on Ventyl's alignment and Matrim's alignment. Elim!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: The choice of squire makes sense, but why would Matrim claim? That would only bring suspicion on Matrim if Ventyl flipped elim and suspicion on Ventyl if Matrim flipped elim. Theoretically possible, but unlikely. Elim!Ventyl, village!Matrim: Ventyl squired Matrim to pocket. This seems to have paid off, as Matrim is diverting suspicion away from Ventyl. I automatically assumed this because it makes no sense for elim!Matrim to claim, so assuming Ventyl is an elim [which was a necessary assumption at the time as I was attempting to conclude how Ventyl could have been an elim] Matrim is most likely a villager. Village!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: This is possible [20%-25% of the people are elims], but unlikely, as I also cannot comprehend why Matrim would claim in this case. An argument could be made for trying to gain credibility when Ventyl was lynched, but it seems to have had the opposite effect. Village!Ventyl, village!Matrim: More likely than village!Ventyl elim!Matrim, though claiming was still a poor decision as Ventyl could have definitely been an elim and Matrim has now made themself a viable kill target for the elims. If this is the case, we are probably doomed, as all of the lynch candidates are villagers. Conclusion: The most likely options are village!Matrim, so we should lynch Ventyl, not Matrim. @Elbereth, @The Young Pyromancer, I regret to inform you that your votes on Matrim have split the Ventyl/Matrim vote, and as such, I will die. The Matrim lynch will probably not take off in the next 3.5 hours [if it does, ignore what I have to say], so I request you move your votes back to Ventyl. If you would rather lynch me than Ventyl, then you may ignore my advice. Sadly, both of you appear to be asleep, so I am probably dead unless you make the effort to be awake before rollover. I agree here, and actually midlly suspect El and Pyro for the attempted shift here (even though I wasn't on board with the Venty lynch) Quote On 7/6/2020 at 7:53 AM, Matrim's Dice said: Sure, he soothed off two votes but I'm decently sure you can use the same surge twice in the same night. (@Straw, confirmation/rebuttal?) No, you can't do that. See the rules. Quote Knights Radiant: There are ten orders of Knights Radiant, with two surges available to each order. Radiants have access to adjacent surges. For example, the Bondsmiths have access to Adhesion and Tension, and the Windrunners have access to Adhesion and Gravitation. In order to use a surge, a player must use up a charge of stormlight. Both charges can be used up at once, but each surge can only be used once per night. A charge is used up even if the action fails. NAI Quote On 7/6/2020 at 8:49 AM, Ventyl said: I could easily be wrong though, this could be an elaborate plan to convince that they’re village, because would any elim team let their teammates do this (This is also one of the things I’m using to defend myself). I could totally see Gears doing it, they seem like they’ll be one of the best SE players out there. Hopefully my compliments will make Gears less likely to kill me. If only I was so clever. I thank you for your kind words, and hope to live up to them one day. If you flip village, is there anyone you would like us to investigate? NAI Quote If I die, inspect those who have voted for me. Those who have kept themselves out of the Ventyl debate should also be placed under observation, as they have been avoiding the backlash. People who've voted without reasoning or seem to be repeating others' reasoning verbatim. If Ventyl flips village, inspect those who've followed the crowd, who haven't thrown their lot in with the elim!Ventyl hypothesis, and etc. If both of us are village, I don't know who would be elim. The last bit of this rubs me the wrong way. It also contradicts Gears wanting to lynch TJ if Ventyl flipped village. elim read. Night 2: Quote It appears that a vote has disappeared from me. I did not engage in vote manipulation, so would anyone like to fess up to the deed? An analysis of the people who voted on Ventyl: Devotary: Stated that they were reading Ventyl as more village. [Investigate] Gears: Thought Ventyl was suspicious and self-preservation. If you wish, you may investigate me. Magestar: Of the lynch targets [Gears and Ventyl], thought the arguments against Ventyl were the best. Orlok: Gave up on analysing and had a gut village read on TJ The_Truthwatcher: Striker consistently defended Ventyl TJ: Ventyl acting too naïve, previous opinion still stands. Conclusion: Devotary's vote was strange, investigate. You can investigate me. The others don't appear to be suspicious except for Orlok, as giving up on analysis is a good way to vote on someone without incriminating yourself as much. NAI Quote On 7/6/2020 at 2:01 PM, Lahilt said: With Ventyl being village we can disregard the Ventyl/Matrim being Elim/Elim. Matrim could still be an Elim that Ventyl accidently hit but that is lower probibility. The only thing I am concerned about is how much Matrim defended Ventyl as if they already knew Ventyls alignment. Matrim was squired by Ventyl, and thus Matrim thought Ventyl was a villager as Ventyl would have squired an elim if they were a elim. Matrim did ignore the possibility of Ventyl being an elim trying to pocket them, but they turned out to be right. NAI Quote @Matrim's Dice, would you rather lynch Elbereth or me? I would of course prefer you lynch Elbereth, but I'm certain Elbereth is thinking the same about me NAI Day 3: Quote On 7/7/2020 at 10:17 AM, TJ Shade said: Edit: We need to consider the possibility that elim kill was role-blocked and Ash might have been the Division kill. There were far better candidates for the Division kill, namely myself and Elbereth. I am very confused as to why someone would obliterate Ash. If a villager did Divide Ash into their component parts, do not claim. NAI Quote Concerning the lynch, the candidates appear to be Elbereth and myself. Are these the only candidates we shall be considering? Does anyone have any other suspicions? Gears doesn't propose any of his own candidates, not even TJ. Quote This has been a fairly quiet turn. 20 hours and only 12 replies. Other days had several pages by this time. I've reread the thread and concluded that I am terrible at reading people. Out of the two current lynch candidates [Elbereth and Gears], I'm voting for Elbereth because I am loath to vote for myself. NAI Quote On 7/8/2020 at 10:30 AM, The Young Pyromancer said: I don't see why you're suspect. Can someone please explain why they want to lynch gears? @Matrim's Dice, why am I a target of suspicion? [I believe it was because of my vehement insistence that Ventyl was to be lynched, but some take that as a point in my favor as an elim would avoid vehemently targeting a villager.] NAI Quote It seems that an Elbereth lynch is the consensus, so I shall leave my vote there. If there is enough traction on the Eternum lynch, I might switch over, but I would prefer to lynch Elbereth first. NAI Quote On 7/8/2020 at 2:11 PM, Magestar said: Final notes - mild Elim read on Gears. Nothing conclusive, just that their posts seem a little off and nothing that would make me think they're village - and none of their defenses for themselves - seem like much more than IKYKs. Part of the problem is that a lot of his defenses are "an Elim wouldn't do what I did" which seems like something an Elim would say. I don't know if that makes sense, but it's giving me bad vibes. My defenses are IKYKs because that is the only way I could defend myself at the time. The only allegations laid against me were that I was tunnelling on Ventyl, and that is not something I can really defend against in a reasonable fashion. I couldn't very well terminate my pressure on Ventyl as retracting because of suspicion is an elim move. Retracting of suspicion is not necessarily elim (I did it towards you last cycle, nobody is trying to lynch me). Rather, trying to act like a villager is an elim move. Quote 20 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said: @Straw, vote count please. I'm not Straw, but there have only been 4 votes, so here you go. Elbereth: 3 [Matrim's Dice, Gears, The Young Pyromancer] Eternum: 1 [TJ Shade] NAI. Quote Your reasoning appears sounds, but I agree with Pyro that lynching active people should be a priority next cycle. However, with 4.5 hours remaining, I do not think we will successfully transfer the vote to an active individual. As such, I will move my vote from Elbereth to Eternum. @Eternum, you are currently up for the lynch. Come hither and defend yourself. NAI. In summary, I find Gears to be much more elim leaning than he was C1. Given this, I'd probably be okay lynching him next cycle. I may also do a post like this for Elbereth, since she only has ~5 posts through the whole game.
shanerockes Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Man I tried so hard to read through the backlog but yall are aggressive in posting. I have no real reads on anyone (and was never good at it anyway) but I will try my best to give some insight into my suspicions when I start watching the current posts. 1
Gears Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: In summary, I find Gears to be much more elim leaning than he was C1. Given this, I'd probably be okay lynching him next cycle. I may also do a post like this for Elbereth, since she only has ~5 posts through the whole game. I have a major problem with being self-consistent because I can never remember anything I've said. These posts of my posts have really helped, thank you. TJ might be a good lynch at this time considering that he's led the lynch against 2 village Knights Radiant, but then again, I don't think an elim would implicate themself like that. I will keep the option in mind. Concerning the suggestion of Truthwatcher, Devotary and Pyro, I don't particularly read any of them as elim, but the order of suspicion [from most to least suspected] is Devotary, Pyro, Truthwatcher. I think Truthwatcher has been contributing mildly, and I can't remember anything Devotary or Pyro has said. However, the TJ lynch might provide more information than any of these, and Elbereth is currently more suspicious than TJ. Conclusion: Elbereth is currently my primary target, followed by TJ. Devotary and Pyro have done nothing that I can recall so I would not be opposed to their lynch. Truthwatcher seems mildly helpful, so I would advise against it.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Gears said: TJ might be a good lynch at this time considering that he's led the lynch against 2 village Knights Radiant, but then again, I don't think an elim would implicate themself like that. I will keep the option in mind. While trying to lynch Ventyl may be elim, I highly doubt anyone knew Eternum was a KR. I will agree that between El and TJ I’d rather lynch El, but I’ll do a summary of El’s posts and see whether she’s actually suspicious, or if that’s just a lesser of two evils scenario.
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Gears said: Devotary, Pyro, Truthwatcher. I think Truthwatcher has been contributing mildly, and I can't remember anything Devotary or Pyro has said. Really? I've been being less chaotic as it's harder to calculate the impact of my plays without PMs. Huh. I'll have to do better then. And yes, I know me putting suspicion on Elb then withdrawing it looks like distancing. When I flip elim, feel free to lynch her for it.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 3 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said: Also, why'd you remove Ash and yourself from that list? I removed myself because I obviously don’t consider myself a lynch target. Someone else making that same list would have (probably) removed themself and added me. Also, in response to your other comments, I think players are perfectly capable of imitating their village play styles as an elim. People quickly stop a behavior that clearly indicates they are elim. I would argue that regardless of playstyle, elims would benefit from lying low this game. Thus, while you and Devotary may be acting as you normally do, that behavior is also advantageous for the elims, and as elims, you would simply act normally. Due to a lack of otherwise villagery type behavior, I think you two are suitable lynch targets. Basically, you are guilty until lynched and proved innocent . 1
Mat he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Basically, you are guilty until lynched and proved innocent . This I don’t like... We should be able to clear people without lynching them first. Its kinda true, and pretty stupid
Illwei Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 6 hours ago, Gears said: Elbereth is currently my primary target, followed by TJ You suggest people to protect TJ even though he's high on your suspect list?
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: I removed myself because I obviously don’t consider myself a lynch target. Someone else making that same list would have (probably) removed themself and added me. Also, in response to your other comments, I think players are perfectly capable of imitating their village play styles as an elim. People quickly stop a behavior that clearly indicates they are elim. I would argue that regardless of playstyle, elims would benefit from lying low this game. Thus, while you and Devotary may be acting as you normally do, that behavior is also advantageous for the elims, and as elims, you would simply act normally. Due to a lack of otherwise villagery type behavior, I think you two are suitable lynch targets. Basically, you are guilty until lynched and proved innocent . That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that I'm playing very differently then I have as an elim, and therefore I'm more likely to be village.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 @The Young Pyromancer, I've tried not think about you at all during the game as I don't think I'll be able to remain objective with respect to you. I have a lot of residual suspicion on you from LG66, and I'm unlikely to trust you for quite some duration of time despite you doing villager-y things. That's why I haven't mentioned anything pertaining to you, because it will likely be biased. Trying to remain as objective as possible, you haven't done much for me to say you're village, and I'd be willing to lynch you.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said: That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that I'm playing very differently then I have as an elim, and therefore I'm more likely to be village. Perhaps. You aren’t at the top of my list of suspicions. You are just on it, and when we have a cycle with more lynch discussion, I’d prefer to lynch you over a random inactive. Of course, someone else would have to agree with me for that to actually happen.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 11 hours ago, Gears said: Devotary and Pyro have done nothing that I can recall so I would not be opposed to their lynch. So far, currently viable opinions are village TJ, somewhat less village you, Araris more likely evil than Elbereth but I should probably look into that more, leaning more elim on Magestar. Elim!Matrim probably would have defended Ventyl to some extent but maybe not to the point where he was pushed to claim after steadfastly refusing to back down despite not providing solid evidence, since elim!Matrim would want Ventyl dead.
Coffeecat she/her Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 ok... TJ: led two votes on villager KR, but again, how could elims know they were KR. still, might simply be luck. an elim actively leading mys lynches, and then claiming vill, because an elim would surely not be so obvious. Matrim: idk, seems pretty sure they will be killed tonight. facade? wants people to listen to them, and they do. I dont know why elbereth? i might have simply not seen something suspicious they did though. Gears: again, wants to lynch elbereth, this time for self preservation. i think they led a vote on ventyl, who ended up being a village KR. lots of people thought that we should lynch gears if ventyl flipped village. any reason why they have not yet lynched gears? plus, i think a lot of information would come out of lynching gears. Araris: literally my only gut village read, a fluffy bear of harmless intentions.(jk) because of this, they are very likely to be elim. seriously, i have no read on them, except that they have been doing lots of analysis, but not much leading. they also voted on me out of the blue. encouraged more lynch targets. an elim perhaps would focus on a few more likely to happen targets. or not... more targets means more likely they are to succeed. perhaps includes one or two elims in the targets, but they will be the least sus of the list. the young pyromancer: no read, seems confused... elim ploy? Illwei: raised a good question i think.
Gears Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 8 hours ago, Illwei said: You suggest people to protect TJ even though he's high on your suspect list? I do not find TJ a good lynch by any means. I simply find him a better lynch than people I remember nothing about. He has been greatly helpful, and yet he has led the lynch against two villagers. Though he could not know the utility of those villagers, he has turned our attention away from him. I also might suspect Araris for suggesting lynch targets that I don't suspect, though I can understand that other people have differing suspicions.
Mat he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 I sort of changed my mind, I decided I don’t agree with Ventyl. Gears is so evil...
Gears Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said: I sort of changed my mind, I decided I don’t agree with Ventyl. Gears is so evil... Could you elaborate please? How am I evil?
Mat he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 Just now, Gears said: Could you elaborate please? How am I evil? I don’t see why I need to. So many times people have posted reasons for suspecting you. I agree with all that stuff, plus my gut just hates your posts. :/ Sorry... but like you ask a bunch of questions like this one that just seem like stalling, asking for other lynch targets multiple times and other things like that. You are sort of contradictory, like reading someone as village and then voting on them either the cycle you read them as village or after. I don’t know much to write beyond that. I think there has been plenty enough reason to lynch you, for quite some time now. If I get NKd I would very much like to see a Gears lynch from the grave.
Gears Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: If I get NKd I would very much like to see a Gears lynch from the grave. The elims are probably going to kill you so they can get a mislynch on me. You are a known squire and thus a prime target for the elims. You wish to lynch me. If you flip village, I will [probably] be lynched. Next turn, I will push for an Elbereth lynch. If I am lynched, I would recommend an Elbereth lynch. Araris and TJ are distant seconds on my suspicion radar. Edited July 10, 2020 by Gears
Mat he/him Posted July 10, 2020 Posted July 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gears said: The elims are probably going to kill you so they can get a mislynch on me. You are a known squire and thus a prime target for the elims. You wish to lynch me. If you flip village, I will [probably] be lynched. Next turn, I will push for an Elbereth lynch. If I am lynched, I would recommend an Elbereth lynch. Araris and TJ are distant seconds on my suspicion radar. Actually, if you are village, the elims would probably keep me alive so they could get a mislynch on you, not kill me. Doubt it though, that whole scenario.
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