Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Elbereth she/her]

@The Young Pyromancer I think Ventyl is a worse lynch candidate than Matrim because, based on everything I’ve seen (ie only up to my post near the beginning of the Day), I think Ventyl is village and am much much less certain about Matrim’s alignment. I made that vote specifically in the hope that there’ll be a shift to Matrim or some other candidate (I have no idea beyond Ventyl who is up for the lynch, since as previously noted I’ve literally only read this page). I can see how you’d think it’s distancing, but... oh well, I guess?  Not much I can do about that. 

Based on the discussion of Gears’ analysis and such, am I correct in thinking the arguments for Ventyl’s lynch are A: that lynching him has results that are net positive compared to the results of not lynching him, and B: there’s been so much discussion about him that we might as well flip him so we can analyze it? 

If so, A is exactly the same for literally every mildly suspicious person. And rests on the assumption that the probability of his alignment 50% for both, which is decidedly not the case as far as I can tell. And B is an information lynch, which is understandable but not something I tend to think is a good idea without a reasonable amount of suspicion behind it as well (which others may have but I certainly do not). 

Also, quicklinking on mobile sucks, so sorry for the mess they are now and I’ll fix it eventually. 

EDIT: Just saw Matrim’s claim. I think it very unlikely that elim!Ventyl would squire a villager to get trust (because I am very much of the opinion that KRs are rare and the elim team does not have more of them than vanillas, plus Ventyl was clearly in danger of dying so they’d have wanted him to squire to keep part of his role when he probably did die), though I find it weird that no one (iirc) is mentioning them as an elim team - like specifically @Gears even if Ventyl is evil why would you automatically assume he squired a villager to pocket them? It’s not that there’s no answer to that question, it’s just that no one brought it up. 
Anyway, I don’t think that has much of any bearing on Ventyl’s alignment, I don’t especially think Matrim’s claim was a good idea (though idk, it’s not that important I think?), and it makes me slightly more inclined to think Matrim is good but not enough to take my vote off. 

And having also seen a vote count, going to say again for the record that I don’t think Gears is evil either. Would prefer him over Ventyl, but would prefer Matrim over both of them. 

And that’s my time. Night all, see you tomorrow hopefully. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Elbereth

[|TJ| he/him]

@Elbereth, I'm not sure if you know this, but Ventyl has Squired Matrim. 

Gears is an alternate lynch candidate with one less vote compared to Ventyl. 

I'm not voting on Ventyl because of his play style, but because of this: 

Quote

*IMPORTANT* This is the prime reason I suspect Ventyl. At the time of this post, I was on 3 votes, Ventyl was on 3 votes, and Striker was on 4 votes. My vote was on Ventyl. He voted on me, specifically preferring a lynch on me over Ventyl. He obviously knew that if he voted on me, I would also shift my vote to him as self-preservation, which would end up with him on 5 votes and lynched. He had a vested interest in saving Ventyl above me, and above himself. That too with the knowledge of Ventyl being a KR. It doesn't make any sense at all for him to prefer a lynch on me if there was a village KR as one of the prime lynch candidates. Is it only because they're siblings, or do I make sense?

"This post" refers to Striker's final vote shifting from Gears to me.

I had invited every player convinced of Ventyl's innocence to discuss this, but so far got response from Joe and Matrim. I would like to know your thoughts. 

@Araris Valerian, I had tagged you as well. Did you miss it? I'd like your opinion on it too. 

 

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

3 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Matrim is being suspicious, but I don't think that Ventyl and Matrim both could be elims. There is a high chance that Ventyl might be lynched this cycle and I doubt that an elim would stick their neck out this much. I will be more suspicious of Matrim in Ventyl flips village.

 

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Uh... 

... aside from whatever that matrix means, your argument makes more sense. But even if lynching a Village!Ventyl isn’t “that bad”, it’s still not preferable. (I missed something else you said, so it does make more sense than I had thought.)

 

1 hour ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

It is this:

                     Ventyl is elim  | Ventyl is not elim

     Lynched | Killed elim       |    Not that bad

Not Lynched|  Live elim        |   Lynched Later

Did that help?

EDIT: Gears was using this to say the lynched row is better than the not lynched row, and so therefore we should lynch Ventyl

Right, @Elbereth so from these THREE POSTS, you've apparently deduced that Matrim is a better lynch than Ventyl, despite NONE OF THOSE POSTS BEING FROM THEM, OR being serious discussion about the arguments against either one. This seems like either distancing or bussing, though if it's neither, I feel we can safely say you're village.

[Elbereth she/her]

What? No, I think Matrim is a better lynch than Ventyl from their posts up to a few hours after the start of D2. I deduced that Ventyl is a current lynch target from those posts and tried to get the arguments about his lynch from them, but my opinion on who to vote for is based on my reads which are based on C1 and a bit of the start of the day before I went and had to do celebratory things. 

also yeah I’m actually sleeping now bye

EDIT: @TJ Shade see my edit

and on that particular piece of evidence, I think you’re putting way too much weight on it and in particular would ask what Striker had said prior to that reads wise that’d have boxed him in; and secondly I’d ask when in the cycle this was and think it especially depends on who else was around - and just... idk it depends on how clued in to the thread he was about your self preservation vote vs where Ventyl was vs who of his teammates were on that night have been able to swing a vote on you easier than the one on Ventyl vs (not really vs but I’m tired whatever) whether he thought that he’d be able to manipulate Ventyl in a way he couldn’t you and also just, which of you is more of a problem for the elims depends not only on roles and had you soft claimed at that point? 

Sorry, I know that’s a mess of random points and not super coherent, but I’m sort of spitballing because I think that piece of evidence is way less damning than you think but I don’t have the time to actually look at the thread so I’m listing reasonings why it might not be valid without knowing which actually apply 

anyway in another time and place I might say that’s really convincing but I just really do not think Ventyl is evil so yeah

good night

Edited July 6, 2020 by Elbereth

[Araris Valerian he/him]

30 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

"This post" refers to Striker's final vote shifting from Gears to me.

I had invited every player convinced of Ventyl's innocence to discuss this, but so far got response from Joe and Matrim. I would like to know your thoughts. 

@Araris Valerian, I had tagged you as well. Did you miss it? I'd like your opinion on it too. 

 

Sorry, yeah I missed this. I do think there are a few potential explanations for this, and combined with the other things that give me a village read on Ventyl (who apparently isn’t trolling), make me comfortable with my current vote. 

1. Perhaps Striker didn’t consider the fact that you would move your vote in self-preservation

2. Perhaps Striker didn’t want to lynch his brother

2b. Perhaps Striker thought his brother might be lying about being a KR (and thus didn’t want to lynch him)

3. Perhaps the elim team had vote manip but forgot to use it (so this vote change wouldn’t have been a big deal)

4. Perhaps Striker wanted to incriminate his brother, and was resigned to being lynched himself

However, your point is good. If we can determine either that Matrim is an elim, or that there are likely multiple elim KRs (and thus that they would be willing to squire a villager), then I’d consider a Ventyl lynch. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

34 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

"This post" refers to Striker's final vote shifting from Gears to me.

I had invited every player convinced of Ventyl's innocence to discuss this, but so far got response from Joe and Matrim. I would like to know your thoughts. 

Striker evidently preferred to lynch you over Ventyl, which is interesting for targeting an unknown over a claimed Knight, but I don't think it's less of a self-preservation vote. Ventyl was voting for Joe at the time, and easily could have shifted over to Striker to break the 4-4 tie. I guess Striker could have been concerned with fallout for killing a village Knight, or was worried about Ventyl having vote manipulation in a world where Ventyl is village. Matrim claiming squire does help Ventyl's case, though in general it's not impossible for an elim Knight to squire a villager even with roleless elims available. One protection every three nights against a village kill role is unlikely to be useful, and most of Abrasion's use is covered by Gravitation.

[Mat he/him]

If y’all still want to lynch Ventyl that’s fine. I still think he will flip village. If that happens, please lynch Gears the following cycle.

If somehow he flips elim, kindly refrain from lynching me because I would have been completely bamboozled. Thank you.

Still would much prefer a Gears lynch. El’s resistance to do so makes me more suspicious of her.

And @TJ Shade, I know that post makes you sus of Ventyl, but you’ve quoted it like seven times.  And myself and Araris have made numerous points to counter. Any chance you’ll reconsider?

@Straw, could I get a vote count?

EDIT: Another thing to consider is that if/when Ventyl is mislynched we are likely loosing our village protection. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Straw he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Straw, could I get a vote count?

Gears (5): Araris Valerian, Ashbringer, Frozen Mint, Matrim's Dice, Ventyl
Ventyl (4): Gears, Orlok Tsubodai, The_Truthwatcher, TJ Shade
Matrim's Dice (2): Elbereth, The Young Pyromancer
TJ Shade (1): Magestar

[|TJ| he/him]

6 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Sorry, I know that’s a mess of random points and not super coherent, but I’m sort of spitballing because I think that piece of evidence is way less damning than you think but I don’t have the time to actually look at the thread so I’m listing reasonings why it might not be valid without knowing which actually apply 

Yeah, I got the gist of it, no worries. I'll try to answer your questions.

6 hours ago, Elbereth said:

I think you’re putting way too much weight on it and in particular would ask what Striker had said prior to that reads wise that’d have boxed him in;

About Ventyl? He kept saying that his brother's behaviour was normal for him. 

6 hours ago, Elbereth said:

I’d ask when in the cycle this was and think it especially depends on who else was around

Endddd. There were only 2 votes after he voted. My self-preservation vote on Striker, and Gears' retraction. There were upto 11 people "recently browsing". Yeah, I was noticing because so many people hadn't voted and I was up for a lynch. 

6 hours ago, Elbereth said:

it depends on how clued in to the thread he was about your self preservation vote vs where Ventyl was

He knew about the train on Ventyl. He was online for a long time before posting so I assume he had read and caught up with the thread. 

Quote

Well...this is interesting to say the least. I’m a bit intrigued by the fact that a lynch train managed to form on me, and it seemed everyone was willing to go for it, then all of a sudden everyone swings for Ventyl instead? I honestly don’t understand either of these lynches, though I think I understand mine even less than Ventyl’s.

With Ventyl, at least it makes sense. Many people cannot see a good reason for why he’s done what he’s done if he were a villager. Personally, I could see him doing this no matter what his alignment, as I think he’s crazy enough to do it either way. Or maybe dumb enough, depending on how you look at it.  But at least the suspicion on him makes sense, even if I don’t agree with it.

So yes, Elbereth and Araris, you maybe right that there are other reasons as to why Striker voted the way he did. Now comes the big questions. Which one of the scenarios is most likely? 

19 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

And @TJ Shade, I know that post makes you sus of Ventyl, but you’ve quoted it like seven times.  And myself and Araris have made numerous points to counter. Any chance you’ll reconsider?

Because everyone keeps IGNORING it! And y'all made the points after I pinged you multiple times. I'm happy where my vote is. I explained earlier that Striker's vote on Gears was too strong for it to be distancing. I will not partake in lynching him, or you for that matter. You're likely to be evil only if Ventyl is. 

Edit: A bit busy now. But I'll try to reply to Magestar's post before rollover. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

6 hours ago, Elbereth said:

like specifically @Gears even if Ventyl is evil why would you automatically assume he squired a villager to pocket them?

I shall make yet another decision matrix, this time based on Ventyl's alignment and Matrim's alignment.

Elim!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: The choice of squire makes sense, but why would Matrim claim? That would only bring suspicion on Matrim if Ventyl flipped elim and suspicion on Ventyl if Matrim flipped elim. Theoretically possible, but unlikely.

Elim!Ventyl, village!Matrim: Ventyl squired Matrim to pocket. This seems to have paid off, as Matrim is diverting suspicion away from Ventyl. I automatically assumed this because it makes no sense for elim!Matrim to claim, so assuming Ventyl is an elim [which was a necessary assumption at the time as I was attempting to conclude how Ventyl could have been an elim] Matrim is most likely a villager. 

Village!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: This is possible [20%-25% of the people are elims], but unlikely, as I also cannot comprehend why Matrim would claim in this case. An argument could be made for trying to gain credibility when Ventyl was lynched, but it seems to have had the opposite effect. 

Village!Ventyl, village!Matrim: More likely than village!Ventyl elim!Matrim, though claiming was still a poor decision as Ventyl could have definitely been an elim and Matrim has now made themself a viable kill target for the elims. If this is the case, we are probably doomed, as all of the lynch candidates are villagers. 

Conclusion: The most likely options are village!Matrim, so we should lynch Ventyl, not Matrim.

@Elbereth, @The Young Pyromancer, I regret to inform you that your votes on Matrim have split the Ventyl/Matrim vote, and as such, I will die. The Matrim lynch will probably not take off in the next 3.5 hours [if it does, ignore what I have to say], so I request you move your votes back to Ventyl. If you would rather lynch me than Ventyl, then you may ignore my advice. Sadly, both of you appear to be asleep, so I am probably dead unless you make the effort to be awake before rollover. 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Gears

[Mat he/him]

I would ask the same thing of El and Pyro, but to move to Gears. Probably not likely, but I have to try to avoid the mislynch.

[Magestar he/him]

The TJ lynch obviously isn’t going anywhere.  Hmm.  I’m checking in from work on my phone and don’t have time to really do any analysis.  I’m not terribly suspicious of Ventyl, but I think their lynch will also give us the most information.  All I have on Gears is their odd tone.  I have no idea why Matrim is even up for the lynch.  I guess of the three, the arguments for Ventyl being lynched are probably the best, and a tie sounds good to me.

[Mat he/him]

I suppose I’m down for a tie. I’ll admit I don’t have super solid proof of village!Ventyl. My gut is way against Gears, and as Ventyl’s squire it gives me a good gut read on him. Ventyl’s flip would give good info, though.

[theTruthshaper]

Wait a second aren't there another 24 hours before rollover? 

[Straw he/him]

1 minute ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Wait a second aren't there another 24 hours before rollover? 

Nope, there's around 2.5 hours left! 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Straw

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Gears said:

Elim!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: The choice of squire makes sense, but why would Matrim claim? That would only bring suspicion on Matrim if Ventyl flipped elim and suspicion on Ventyl if Matrim flipped elim. Theoretically possible, but unlikely.

xD Yeah claiming would've been soooo dumb. 0% of being true.

1 hour ago, Gears said:

Elim!Ventyl, village!Matrim: Ventyl squired Matrim to pocket. This seems to have paid off, as Matrim is diverting suspicion away from Ventyl. I automatically assumed this because it makes no sense for elim!Matrim to claim, so assuming Ventyl is an elim [which was a necessary assumption at the time as I was attempting to conclude how Ventyl could have been an elim] Matrim is most likely a villager. 

Mhm I don't want to believe this. But it's possible. I'd say 15-20% of being true.

1 hour ago, Gears said:

Village!Ventyl, elim!Matrim: This is possible [20%-25% of the people are elims], but unlikely, as I also cannot comprehend why Matrim would claim in this case. An argument could be made for trying to gain credibility when Ventyl was lynched, but it seems to have had the opposite effect. 

Again, soooo dumb to have claimed. -0% of being true.

1 hour ago, Gears said:

Village!Ventyl, village!Matrim: More likely than village!Ventyl elim!Matrim, though claiming was still a poor decision as Ventyl could have definitely been an elim and Matrim has now made themself a viable kill target for the elims. If this is the case, we are probably doomed, as all of the lynch candidates are villagers. 

This is what I assumed happened. 80-85% of being true. I disagree with the part about all the lynch candidates are villagers, though...

---

Taking a page out of Gears' book, and because I'm in a unique state of currently nothing to do, DECISION MATRIX! On Ventyl/Gears Alignment.

elim!Gears/elim!Ventyl: This would be very strange as Gears is fighting very very hard for a Ventyl lynch. I guess it could be distancing, though I don't get the point and I think Ventyl is good. In this case their plan to squire me would be to get me to defend... Ventyl... prompting Gears' lynch. Yeah, this probably isn't the case.

elim!Gears/village!Ventyl: The option I believe to be the case. Everyone turned on Ventyl for his playstyle, he squired me to gain a helper, Gears jumped on board. It is kind of odd though, that if Ventyl flipped village Gears would be in big trouble. So it's kind of interesting, but I'm still inclined to think this is the case.

village!Gears/elim!Ventyl: This is certainly what Gears is proposing, and I guess it kind of makes sense, but my gut feeling is so opposite I can't really wrap my head around the possibility. I'd very much dislike this option as basically all my reads would be wrong.  

village!Gears/village!Ventyl: This would be sad. No matter who gets lynched today, the other would be lynched next cycle with the elims laughing in the shadows. Very much hope this one isn't true. 

Conclusion: The middle two are the most likely, imo. I don't super care which is lynched- I'd prefer Gears because Ventyl squired me- but a tie still would be beneficial, giving the fate of the game to luck. That might be better than our judgement. 

Interested to see the last hour of the cycle. Votes certainly will fly, and a hidden hammer might happen. Maybe. I'll be watching.

The lynch attempt on me is such a waste of time. Any scenario I'm an elim, claiming Ventyl's squire is a very bad idea. El and Pyro, I don't know what you're doing, but this makes me suspicious of the both of you. Come off it, please  

Also, random thought. Is there any proof TJ is actually a Bondsmith? Sure, he soothed off two votes but I'm decently sure you can use the same surge twice in the same night. (@Straw, confirmation/rebuttal?) If this is the case, he theoretically could be the elim vote manip as a Windrunner. But that dives so deep into paranoia I'm not further considering it for a very long time. Thanks, Gears  

Edited July 6, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Gears]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Sure, he soothed off two votes but I'm decently sure you can use the same surge twice in the same night. (@Straw, confirmation/rebuttal?)

No, you can't do that. See the rules.

Quote

Knights Radiant: There are ten orders of Knights Radiant, with two surges available to each order. Radiants have access to adjacent surges. For example, the Bondsmiths have access to Adhesion and Tension, and the Windrunners have access to Adhesion and Gravitation. In order to use a surge, a player must use up a charge of stormlight. Both charges can be used up at once, but each surge can only be used once per night. A charge is used up even if the action fails.

 

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Gears said:

No, you can't do that. See the rules.

Ah ok, thanks. Didn't bother to check the rules before the post. Disregard that particular paranoiac statement of mine, then.

[Straw he/him]

Oh yeah, the once per night thing is really once per turn, since some surges can be used during the day or night.

Edited July 6, 2020 by Straw
turn, not cycle

[Ashbringer he/him]

8 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Anyways, what's your thought on Elbereth's post?

I assume you mean this post?

9 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Hey. So, mental illness sucks and shouldn’t exist, and in related news I will be around for the next hour and no longer because apparently breaking my sleep schedule and forgetting my meds results in Not Being Able To Do Anything syndrome. Who knew?  

So I’m here, though splitting my time between this and the MR and fixing all the threads so they’re not a complete mess (by which I deduce Fifth hasn’t been around yet?). I haven’t read through the pages since I’ve been gone; I’ll skim the last couple pages if possible but mostly I’m here to check in, see if there’s anything I should reply to / comment on, and say I hope to be around more tomorrow but can’t promise anything because promises are stressful and my brain thinks stress must be avoided at all costs.  

Looking at literally only this page, I’d be fine with a Matrim lynch (and much more so with that than a Ventyl lynch (which seems to still be happening?). Mostly because I think Ventyl is village, a little bit because I feel like (and I can’t back this up without reading the intervening pages) this might be turning into lynching someone for non-optimal play and I would very very would rather not do that. 

So Matrim I guess? 

EDIT: Oh, and my laptop charger is broken and I won’t get a replacement for another week, so I’m going to be on mobile from now on I guess. :)) 

Well for one thing, I wholeheartedly agree that mental illness sucks and should not be a thing. I briefly wondered if it should be blue text but I’m not pushing that far (especially on mobile...)

I agree with Gears that Elim!Mat claiming squire doesn’t make any sense unless he got told to do so to save Ventyl. So I read Matrim as Village at this point. I think without the info of the Squire claim, Mat has been kinda suspicious as a “reasonless” defender of Ventyl. But I still think Ventyl is the more suspicious of the two in any case.

Elbereth is my third Elim read after Ventyl and Gears, but I can’t tell if that’s just her style and my awful read skills.

Also, Pyro, did you vote on Mat because you’re suspicious of Elbereth... for voting on Mat?

Edited July 6, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Mat he/him]

I was reasonless for defending Ventyl because my reason was that he had squired me and I was keeping that quiet. Now that I’ve claimed, I hope this is not still the case.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

2 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

About Ventyl? He kept saying that his brother's behaviour was normal for him. 

I said it was normal for him to be killed Cycle 1, whether through the lynch or through a kill.

——————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Anyways, with the amount of things y’all posted while I was asleep, I’m starting to think I am an elim! Also someone asked me to confirm that I squired Mat, well I did. 

I have a felling that there will be a lot of vote manipulation involved this lynch to break the tie and get me killed, and as far as I know there is no way to combat it, so even if Gears had another vote on me, I’m going to die this turn. When I flip village, which I will, don’t lynch Gears. Also don’t lynch TJ. 

Why you ask? Well, I don’t think any elim would put themselves willing into a situation like this. With the amount they’ve been tunneling on me, I don’t think they are an elim. Considering I think this would be their first game as one, I’’m sure the other elims would be giving tips. So I don’t think they’d let them tunnel this much, because it puts so much suspicion on you when the person you tunneled flips village. I give the same reasoning for TJ, they’ve also tunneled on me quite a bit. As it seems like they refuse to believe any situation where I’m not an elim. 

I could easily be wrong though, this could be an elaborate plan to convince that they’re village, because would any elim team let their teammates do this (This is also one of the things I’m using to defend myself). I could totally see Gears doing it, they seem like they’ll be one of the best SE players out there. Hopefully my compliments will make Gears less likely to kill me. 

@Straw I’m going to write my own death scene, so if I get lynched, please use it.

[Ashbringer he/him]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I was reasonless for defending Ventyl because my reason was that he had squired me and I was keeping that quiet. Now that I’ve claimed, I hope this is not still the case.

I know. But what I’m saying is I don’t think Elbereth did. I think she missed the claim.

9 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Why you ask? Well, I don’t think any elim would put themselves willing into a situation like this. With the amount they’ve been tunneling on me, I don’t think they are an elim. Considering I think this would be their first game as one, I’’m sure the other elims would be giving tips. So I don’t think they’d let them tunnel this much, because it puts so much suspicion on you when the person you tunneled flips village. I give the same reasoning for TJ, they’ve also tunneled on me quite a bit. As it seems like they refuse to believe any situation where I’m not an elim. 

THIS is why I don’t want to lynch Ventyl that much. Village or Elim, his actions don’t make much sense, and I read that as Village-y.

That being said, I think the Elims will try and manip at least one vote, so having a tie is not preferable. I’d like to go one way or the other.

Edited July 6, 2020 by Ashbringer

[Gears]

18 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

I could easily be wrong though, this could be an elaborate plan to convince that they’re village, because would any elim team let their teammates do this (This is also one of the things I’m using to defend myself). I could totally see Gears doing it, they seem like they’ll be one of the best SE players out there. Hopefully my compliments will make Gears less likely to kill me. 

If only I was so clever. I thank you for your kind words, and hope to live up to them one day. If you flip village, is there anyone you would like us to investigate?

[Straw he/him]

22 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

@Straw I’m going to write my own death scene, so if I get lynched, please use it.

PM it to me and I'll use it. Or, if you don't have it done, I'll just put in a placeholder.