Gears Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Edit: Anyone else find it odd that Gears put himself in his own lynch train plans? I am perfectly amenable to dying. If I get lynched and flip village, lynch Ventyl. If Ventyl gets lynched and flips village, lynch me. I look forward to rambling in the dead doc. Edited July 5, 2020 by Gears Commas
Magestar he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 Sorry I haven't gotten around to posting yet; my family sprung a trip to my grandparents on me at the last minute. I wrote most of this post this morning and didn't have time to send it. >.> Since I don't have much time, I'm just post some quick thoughts on the cycle so far. 18 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Wow, looks like the elim team has Striker, TJ, Ventyl, and Gears, embarking on a cunning plan to get each other killed for trust while simultaneously killing actual villagers trusted for their votes. Next thing you know, the elims will be purposefully submitting kills on each other so they can claim Skybreaker/Dustbringer. This is the best thing I've read all day. Thank you for lightening the mood a bit. 17 hours ago, TJ Shade said: This is not exactly correct. He pseudo-claimed for no reason at all, then hid behind his claim basically holding his KR tag as shield. I claimed only to explain my missing votes so you do not think I was saved by elims. And I'm fine with lynching other people from my suspicion list from N2 thread, but he's the most suspicious of the list and I'm sure he's an elim KR, a powerful one too. Therefore, I'm scared of letting him live even a cycle longer than necessary. I'm really unable to understand the hesitancy of others to lynch him, which only adds to my suspicion as part of the silence maybe from elims. Are you all not seeing what I am? His only defence seems to be "This is my play style." while I've tried to give the most logical reasons and y'all come up with impossible situations to try and put the suspicion back on me. 17 hours ago, Gears said: I trust TJ more than Ventyl for precisely this reason. Strong disagree. You pseudo-claimed pretty early D1 after a lynch started building on you to protect yourself. Ventyl did it semi-randomly, which seems like it's basically their playstyle at this point. I'm not super trusting of you because I think it's less normal for you to claim than it is for Ventyl, who apparently does this sort of stuff all the time. Furthermore, I strongly doubt elim!Ventyl would continue acting the way they have. I feel like their actions are super odd for an Elim. 17 hours ago, Araris Valerian said: I don’t really think either Ventyl or TJ are elims. Elim!Ventyl would almost certainly know that squiring doesn’t use Stormlight. Village!Radiant!Ventyl would also know, if Ventyl had actually squired. Thus, we probably have a Vanilla!Village!Ventyl. However, due to probably lying about his role, I can understand the votes on him. The chaos he’s creating isn’t helpful to the village. I'm surprised more people haven't considered this. no I didn't consider it either shush. Frankly, it makes a lot more sense than a lot of the other theories flying around. In defense of Ventyl, I also thought that squiring took two charges of stormlight. It's possible the base rules read that way if you're not paying terribly close attention, which I wasn't, and didn't read the clarifications, which I didn't. I'm kind of suspicious of how closely Gears and TJ are acting together. I don't have time to look but does anyone know if TJ has any experience being an Elim? If not, that could pretty easily explain his frantic behavior, IMO. Other things... I'm not terribly suspicious of Elbereth? I don't know why Orlok is, so I don't feel like I can comment. Her actions seem village, but I'm fairly sure she could fake that pretty easily. I don't like how Gears is phrasing things - using "we" when referring to things they want done, so it seems like they're speaking for the village, and the general vibe of them giving permission for us to do things. It just seems... off? I don't know. I'm a little worried that none of the main three up for discussion are Elims. I've already made my thoughts clear on Ventyl; I'm starting to think Gears is tunneling too hard for an Elim, and I'm not sure about TJ. Still, I think TJ is the most suspicious of the three. I'll throw a vote on TJ Shade for now. I'm surprised there aren't any on him yet. I'll be back before the end of the cycle with hopefully some actual game analysis. >.>
Mat he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Gears said: If Ventyl gets lynched and flips village lynch me. See, this is VERY odd. Let's assume village!Gears. With the above statement, Gears is saying they would be perfectly fine with two mislynches in a row, knowing their own alignment. That makes no sense. I'm fairly certain that village!Gears would notice this, as in the QF they were quite observant. This is exactly why i'm suspicious of Gears. Edit: Quoting Mage Quote I'm surprised more people haven't considered this. I believe I have mentioned on several previous occasions that I think both Ventyl and TJ are village. Edited July 5, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
Ashbringer he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 My “questions” were whether or not Ventyl squired or used his stormlight, which he claimed was misunderstanding the rules, and from what someone said earlier (in this thread, find it if you want but it might be an accidental claim so I’d rather not out them further) I’m inclined to believe such a mixup is possible. And, I’ve already gotten too involved in the TJ-Ventyl disagreements. I don’t want to fully commit to one side until people understand that there’s multiple explanations, instead of just lynch Ventyl or lynch TJ. TL:DR, I think Ventyl is very suspicious, but that doesn’t mean I think TJ is exonorated. Ventyl’s my strongest suspicion, then Gears, then... Elbereth? I need to look st the pseudo-active people like TW. And I’m still hesitant to lynch Ventyl on shoddy role reasoning... again.
Gears Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: See, this is VERY odd. Let's assume village!Gears. With the above statement, Gears is saying they would be perfectly fine with two mislynches in a row, knowing their own alignment. That makes no sense. I'm fairly certain that village!Gears would notice this, as in the QF they were quite observant. This is exactly why i'm suspicious of Gears. If Ventyl flips village, you would lynch me regardless. I wouldn't be happy about it, but it would happen, so I instead am telling you to do so in an attempt to take control over my own demise, which is mildly cathartic. It would also provide a large quantity of information, as on my flip, the people who voted on me in this cycle would be implicated. The only other lynch target post-Ventyl is TJ, and he is more trusted than me, so lynching me would benefit the village more than lynching TJ. As in all things, these plans are a LAST RESORT to be used if no one has a better idea.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 soz all. locke spent all of yesterday in pubs celebrating their reopening. investigations reveal at least four of my locals still serve good pints have decided im going to do this game entirely on gut. just not fun trying to analyse and write as locke. as such, ventyl. reasonably strong gut village read on tj shade. havent thought enough about gears. 2
Mat he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: soz all. locke spent all of yesterday in pubs celebrating their reopening. investigations reveal at least four of my locals still serve good pints have decided im going to do this game entirely on gut. just not fun trying to analyse and write as locke. as such, ventyl. reasonably strong gut village read on tj shade. havent thought enough about gears. The only mention of Ventyl's name is the vote. Any specific posts of his that give that read? Also, whatever happened to the gut read against Gears D1? Edited July 5, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
theTruthshaper Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Magestar said: Strong disagree. You pseudo-claimed pretty early D1 after a lynch started building on you to protect yourself. Ventyl did it semi-randomly, which seems like it's basically their playstyle at this point. I'm not super trusting of you because I think it's less normal for you to claim than it is for Ventyl, who apparently does this sort of stuff all the time. Furthermore, I strongly doubt elim!Ventyl would continue acting the way they have. I feel like their actions are super odd for an Elim. I don't agree with this. TJ only claimed after there was a high probability that they would be lynched, in an attempt to save himself. This would be pretty NAI because a village Radiant would also do this. About Ventyl, if I think he is a fairly new player? I am basically basing this upon their number of posts which are only 205. I agree that elim!Ventyl would not do this, but a village!Ventyl would not do this either. A villager is much much more unlikely to do this than an eliminator, simply because there is no possible way this could help the village. 16 minutes ago, Magestar said: I'm kind of suspicious of how closely Gears and TJ are acting together. I don't have time to look but does anyone know if TJ has any experience being an Elim? If not, that could pretty easily explain his frantic behavior, IMO. I have only played OF45 with them, in which they were village. However, if I remember correctly TJ did get frantic in that game when they were a serious lynch suspect. In my opinion, they simply become frantic when there is a good chance of them dying. 16 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: I need to look st the pseudo-active people like TW. I only seem pseudo-active because my timezone is very different. I will be going offline in about half an hour but the discourse is just starting. EDIT: I would like all the people who are reading Ventyl as village to at least attempt to answer my four questions to Ventyl. Edited July 5, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher
Mint11 she/her Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 Some very, very quick reads: Ashbringer: Null. Seems to be contributing a lot. I'm not really seeing any tells either way. Devotary: Null. Incredibly logical as usual. Assuming that elim!Devotary tends to be just as logical. Illwei: Slight village. Their comments are striking me as something that would come from a villager. A bit of a gut read I guess. El: Slight village. Their reasoning is generally sound and well thought out, though I'm generally hesitant to consider that AI for experienced players. But they've pushed a lot of discussion. Eternum: Slight village, though in my experience, very good at sounding village. We'll see. I do think their posts have contributed positively to the village. Matrim: Village (as previously stated) Orlok: Null. I have no idea what to make of Orlok since I've never seen him play like this. Pyro: Slight elim but I think it's mostly a gut read. It could just be how their playstyle comes off to me. Truthwatcher: Slight elim. Jumped on the Ventyl lynch pretty easily. @The_Truthwatcher what other reads do you have right now? 23 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said: I don't understand why more people are not suspicious of Ventyl? Can somebody explain why so many are reading Ventyl as village? I can't speak for the others, but I personally don't see how Ventyl's actions would be helpful as an elim. Elims tend to be more careful, not less, if not for their own sake, then at least for the sake of their team. You could argue that there's a chance elim!Ventyl just went all out so he could have some fun anyways, but I don't think it's plausible. And based on the last QF, I got the sense that Ventyl's playstyle is just chaotic in general. It's NAI for him. Gears, you've been tunneling on Ventyl and I'd rather lynch you than TJ (I feel like TJ has provided sound reasoning behind his suspicions, plus I'd rather not accidentally kill a village radiant). I don't like how so much D2 conversation has revolved around a single player's lynch. 14 minutes ago, Gears said: If Ventyl flips village, lynch me. If I flip village, lynch Ventyl. This isn't really helpful because one of you flipping village doesn't indicate that the other is an elim. The other person could just be a paranoid villager. If one of you flips elim, then the other is most likely a villager but that's a different scenario. Also, if I'm off base, the more experienced players are free to correct me. But can you all please chill a bit? This is just a game and the point is for it to be fun. 1
|TJ| he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said: Why did you roleclaim as a KR? Why, after us telling you not to give information about yourself in the thread, you continued to do so? If you are village why would these statements be helpful to the village? Did you actually think that they would be helpful? StrikerEZ continuously defended you after knowing that you are KR, they are now an elim. Why would an elim defend a village KR? Role-claiming is his playstyle. He could not care less about people telling him what to do. He will do what he wishes. Yet to answer Yet to answer 1 and 2 in his own words from my previous questions in earlier threads. 10 minutes ago, Gears said: I too think TJ is a villager, and I shall revise my lynch train from Ventyl-TJ to Ventyl-Gears instead. The general populace may lynch TJ in their own time. Can we not talk about the future right now? I'd rather not lynch based on suspicion thrown, but on votes cast. There are so many factors to consider our next lynch target, and so many actions flying around between D2 and D3. Can we wait for the voting pattern and the eventual results? If you know you're village, you aren't doing us any favor by condemning yourself for a lynch if Ventyl flips village, because then, we'd have two cycles of mislyches, like Araris said before. 5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Perhaps he thought that because of Ventyl's chaos he would have less to make a vote off of than you. He said the above reasons because they were what came to mind when preserving himself, and maybe Ventyl didn't have that much unique evidence against him. I'm less inclined to think of it as a preference, and more inclined to think it's just an elim voting for the easiest villager to vote on. Oh, so assuming what a dead elim might have been thinking is more logical than what I stated? Why are we believing anything an elim said? It was NOT a self-preservation vote because he knew I suspected Ventyl more than him, so if I had no reason to save myself I wouldn't have any reason to shift my vote on him. He knew all this, and still voted for me, leaving me with no choice but to vote for him. That is like sacrificing for Ventyl. 3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: The only mention of Ventyl's name is the vote. Any specific posts of his that give that read? You're really going to ask that? xD
theTruthshaper Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Frozen Mint said: what other reads do you have right now? Not many. I am suspicious of anybody who is defending Ventyl, but I too might be tunneling. 2 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said: I can't speak for the others, but I personally don't see how Ventyl's actions would be helpful as an elim. Elims tend to be more careful, not less, if not for their own sake, then at least for the sake of their team. You could argue that there's a chance elim!Ventyl just went all out so he could have some fun anyways, but I don't think it's plausible. And based on the last QF, I got the sense that Ventyl's playstyle is just chaotic in general. It's NAI for him. Yes, but his actions actively hurt the village, if he is actually a KR. If he is not a KR, then... why is he lying so much? Why was Striker defending him?
Mint11 she/her Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, The_Truthwatcher said: Yes, but his actions actively hurt the village, if he is actually a KR. If he is not a KR, then... why is he lying so much? Tbh it only seems to be hurting the village because we're focusing on it so much. Also, lying in SE is fun. And can potentially reveal things about others' alignments. There's different ways to go about the game. 1 minute ago, The_Truthwatcher said: Why was Striker defending him? Elims don't only defend other elims. It puts them on thin ice if one of them dies.
theTruthshaper Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said: Tbh it only seems to be hurting the village because we're focusing on it so much. Also, lying in SE is fun. And can potentially reveal things about others' alignments. There's different ways to go about the game. I will admit that I am new to this game, but wouldn't the elims kill Ventyl? Isn't the loss of a village KR bad for the village? 4 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said: Elims don't only defend other elims. It puts them on thin ice if one of them dies. This is probably true. But Ventyl as a village KR and with the way he is acting would have been a very easy and lucrative lynch for the elims. To be fair, it is possible that the elims *were* pursuing his lynch but put Striker in the opposite position as... insurance? Edited July 5, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher
Mat he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, The_Truthwatcher said: I will admit that I am new to this game, but wouldn't the elims kill Ventyl? Isn't the loss of a village KR bad for the village? Yes, but the elims probably are leaving Ventyl alone hoping we’ll mislynch them. (Assuming village!Ventyl)
theTruthshaper Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Yes, but the elims probably are leaving Ventyl alone hoping we’ll mislynch them. (Assuming village!Ventyl) But this is assuming that we ARE focusing on Ventyl. If we wouldn't have focused on them, Ventyl would probably have been the first lynch.
Mat he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said: But this is assuming that we ARE focusing on Ventyl. Just look at the thread xD We're definitely focusing on Ventyl.
theTruthshaper Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: Just look at the thread xD We're definitely focusing on Ventyl. Sigh.... I think we are misunderstanding each other here. I will try to summarize our conversation and you can tell me if I have misunderstood you: I said that Ventyl roleclaiming was bad for village. You argued that his roleclaiming was only bad for the village because we were focusing so much on him. I argued that IF we wouldn't have focused on him he would have been killed by the elims. So, this was a lose-lose situation for the village. Edited July 5, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher
Mat he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said: Sigh.... I think we are misunderstanding each other here. I will try to summarize our conversation and you can tell me if I have misunderstood you: I said that Ventyl roleclaiming was bad for village. You argued that his roleclaiming was only bad for the village because we were focusing so much on him. I argued that IF we wouldn't have focused on him he would have been killed by the elims. So, this was a lose-lose situation for the village. So I think we were having the same conversation, but about 5 minutes slow. To be clearer, hopefully: It's true that Ventyl probably would've been NK'd if we had originally shrugged off his claim. But we didn't, and he was put up for lynch D1. I believe him to be village, and therefore believe he wasn't NK'd because he was a decently considered lynch target D1, and would be an easy mislynch for the elims D2.
theTruthshaper Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: To be clearer, hopefully: It's true that Ventyl probably would've been NK'd if we had originally shrugged off his claim. But we didn't, and he was put up for lynch D1. I believe him to be village, and therefore believe he wasn't NK'd because he was a decently considered lynch target D1, and would be an easy mislynch for the elims D2. I get this. But why would Ventyl set up this situation??? This situation is clearly bad for the village and could have easily been avoided.
Magestar he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said: I get this. But why would Ventyl set up this situation??? This situation is clearly bad for the village and could have easily been avoided. I think you may be overestimating both how easy it would be to avoid the situation and Ventyl’s ability to avoid it.
theTruthshaper Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Magestar said: I think you may be overestimating both how easy it would be to avoid the situation and Ventyl’s ability to avoid it. Not roleclaiming would avoid the situation? Not sure what you are getting at here. It is way past my bedtime and I am going to sleep.
Magestar he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 1 minute ago, The_Truthwatcher said: Not roleclaiming would avoid the situation? Not sure what you are getting at here. Sure, but you're assuming Ventyl - or anyone, for that matter - had the foresight to anticipate the fact that roleclaiming would lead to this exact situation. I personally wouldn't have expected it to get this out of hand. To use Matrim's example, we could have shrugged off Ventyl's claim. Or, for other reasons, Ventyl could just not have been up for the lynch. I think saying Ventyl "set up" this situation might be going a little far.
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 If Ventyl is an elim KR, they would have squired tonight, so waiting another cycle doesn't really harm anything. If Ventyl is an elim vanilla, waiting gives us more data when they flip. If Ventyl is a village KR, they haven't squired, and waiting gives them a chance to. If Ventyl is a Village Vanilla, lynching them is a mislynch. Therefore, it's better to wait until the next cycle to lynch them. Village read on Ash. 1
Gears Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 As the vote stands, I will be lynched. Of course, there is an entire day left in the turn, so that is subject to change, but I feel that we should plan a course of action for after my death. Does anyone have any suggestions? As for a defense, I have been given no accusations to defend against. My only crime appears to be tunnelling on Ventyl after stating that I wouldn't do so. Any attempts to mend the situation will only worsen it, as maintaining my position will worsen my status in the eyes of many and retracting my position will make me appear to have a survival wish, which tends to afflict those who engage in friendly acts of nightly slaughter. If anyone would like to clarify their suspicions into something I can mount a defense against, that would be much appreciated.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 5, 2020 Posted July 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said: If Ventyl is an elim KR, they would have squired tonight, so waiting another cycle doesn't really harm anything. If Ventyl is an elim vanilla, waiting gives us more data when they flip. If Ventyl is a village KR, they haven't squired, and waiting gives them a chance to. If Ventyl is a Village Vanilla, lynching them is a mislynch. Therefore, it's better to wait until the next cycle to lynch them. Village read on Ash. Pyro, Ventyl has already claimed that he has Squired successfully.
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