Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Straw he/him]

1 minute ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

 

But it was not needed. @Straw can you rescind an action once you take it? Or does an action become final immediately?

Yeah, you can rescind actions or change them. Same with almost all games.

[theTruthshaper]

Just now, Straw said:

Yeah, you can rescind actions or change them. Same with almost all games.

Hmmm, realizing now that it was a stupid question.

 

[Ashbringer he/him]

However, if the Elim didn’t have time to recind it, ie if, oh I don’t know, Village!Devotary voted very late to break the tie, then the action would go through needlessly. People can’t always be on right at rollover. Which is why I don’t think the Elims knew / were planning on Devotary’s vote, and thus left their action to wipe a vote from Gears. It’s at least enough to make a lean towards Village.

... now if Devotary had voted Gears and re-made a tie, that would have been interesting.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

However, if the Elim didn’t have time to recind it, ie if, oh I don’t know, Village!Devotary voted very late to break the tie, then the action would go through needlessly. People can’t always be on right at rollover. Which is why I don’t think the Elims knew / were planning on Devotary’s vote, and thus left their action to wipe a vote from Gears. It’s at least enough to make a lean towards Village.

Lean towards village for who? This explanation makes it seem like Gears is evil.

[theTruthshaper]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Lean towards village for who? This explanation makes it seem like Gears is evil.

As far as I understand, Ashbringer is arguing that Devotary is village.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Village!Devotary. Or leaning that way.

I don’t know if it says much towards Gears. The Elims could be protecting Elim!Gears from being lynched, or they could be trying to frame Village!Gears by protecting them. It’s hard to tell.

Ventyl flipping Village, that can help with a few people’s alignments. But as far as I can see the vote manip just tells us someone used vote manip.

[Magestar he/him]

I think that it might be good next cycle to try and broaden the scope of potential lynch suspects.  We do have something to work with - Ventyl flipping village still let's us do analysis.  It's too bad everyone was so focused on Ventyl, but it's not all bad.

And now I'll quickly respond to TJ.

---

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Mage, I know you retracted your vote on me, but I'll still reply because you put effort and time into your analysis, and it wouldn't be right of me to simply ignore it. 

Thanks.    I'll respond to this pretty briefly since I'd rather not focus to heavily on it during the night cycle.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

First off, that was not my first post of the game, it was my second. As such, Elbereth's vote on me was not poke, as she explains herself later, she finds voting for already posted promotes discussion. Since her reason for her vote on me was to promote discussion, discuss I did. As to why I said what I said, I've played 3 complete games till now, and I've been killed in two, both for my analysis. That's what I meant by telling I think I was useful to the village.

Ah.  I must have somehow missed the prior post?  Sorry about that.  I'm not sure how Elbereth's vote is defined is all that relevant.  I still think what you said was slightly odd.  "I've been useful to the village in the past" just sounds off to me.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

I have other suspects I mentioned in the last night cycle. Would have lynched Eternum or Ashbringer this cycle, but they did not come up at all. 

I guess.  I was a little concerned by how much you tunneled on Ventyl and now they've flipped village...  Oddly though, I'm wondering if that's a point in your favor.  I don't think that an Elim would tunnel as hard as you did on someone who they know is village.  Ventyl said as much.  The problem there is I think that both you and Gears are good enough to know that, and use it to your advantage.  But from there it devolved into IKYK territory, which is problematic for a number of reasons.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

It wasn't an easy question though? I caught a very suspicious question of his and even stated that the question was elim-y, and brought it all your attention. Everyone just brushed it off, and you even called me paranoid, so I dropped it thinking it was just me. 

I think everyone brushed it off because it wasn't that big a deal.  Like I said earlier, I still don't really understand why we lynched Striker.  I mean, you later asked a similar question about mechanics, IIRC.  Mechanics questions aren't alignment indicative in my mind.  I get Sart's suspicion of Striker, I guess.  Distracting the thread from focusing on the Elims is why I was suspicious of Ash in LG66 - although I'll note Ash was village at the time.  But mechanics questions don't make me suspicious.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Striker voted for me, man. If he wanted to save me, he could have voted for Ventyl. Striker could have joined me in lynching Ventyl, and I could have disappeared one vote off me and another off him to pull off a Ventyl lynch. Striker voted for me (how many times am I supposed to say this?  ). 

I think this is actually the best piece of evidence in your favor, especially now that Ventyl flipped village.  I don't understand why Striker would have voted for you if you were also an Elim.  I... also don't understand why Striker voted for Ventyl, but perhaps that's a mystery I won't be able to unravel till the end of the game.

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

I believe you are somehow unable to be objective in your approach, Mage. You have an idea of my alignment in your head, and you find posts of mine that fit and suit your agenda, meanwhile ignoring all the other posts which may signal the opposite. You're also heavily limiting your focus to one player, thereby narrowing your suspect pool a lot. 

I actually only had time to get to you.  I said I was going to do analysis on other players, I just haven't gotten around to it yet.  I've been busier than I anticipated, which I'm pretty sure I've said before.

But maybe I was tunneling a little bit.  It's possible I was trying to find evidence to fit my reads rather than the other way around.  Anyway, I'm still suspicious of you, but it's mostly just a gut read based on tone and a few odd things at this point.  I'll work on some analysis this cycle and put forth some lynch options of my own in the next day cycle.

[Lahilt he/him]

From the notebook of Lahilt loosely translated

Two people have already died and will probably continue.

 I see a crazy stone today.

 When I travel I have a good appetite.

I think the world there is confused.

I'm hungry.

I wrote it in esperanto than used google translate which is why it sounds foreign

Now on a more serious note.        

With Ventyl being village we can disregard the Ventyl/Matrim being Elim/Elim. Matrim could still be an Elim that Ventyl accidently hit but that is lower probibility. The only thing I am concerned about is how much Matrim defended Ventyl as if they already knew Ventyls alignment.

 

Edited July 6, 2020 by Lahilt

[Gears]

7 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

With Ventyl being village we can disregard the Ventyl/Matrim being Elim/Elim. Matrim could still be an Elim that Ventyl accidently hit but that is lower probibility. The only thing I am concerned about is how much Matrim defended Ventyl as if they already knew Ventyls alignment.

Matrim was squired by Ventyl, and thus Matrim thought Ventyl was a villager as Ventyl would have squired an elim if they were a elim. Matrim did ignore the possibility of Ventyl being an elim trying to pocket them, but they turned out to be right.

[Ashbringer he/him]

9 minutes ago, Lahilt said:

 I see a crazy stone today.

Stoneward confirmed!

I more read Mat as Village for claiming, but it’s hard to tell. Being squired by a Villager is NAI, methinks

[Lahilt he/him]

4 minutes ago, Gears said:

Matrim was squired by Ventyl, and thus Matrim thought Ventyl was a villager as Ventyl would have squired an elim if they were a elim. Matrim did ignore the possibility of Ventyl being an elim trying to pocket them, but they turned out to be right.

Aye, thats true.

 

[Illwei]

3 hours ago, Gears said:

3 hours ago, Lahilt said:

With Ventyl being village we can disregard the Ventyl/Matrim being Elim/Elim. Matrim could still be an Elim that Ventyl accidently hit but that is lower probibility. The only thing I am concerned about is how much Matrim defended Ventyl as if they already knew Ventyls alignment.

Matrim was squired by Ventyl, and thus Matrim thought Ventyl was a villager as Ventyl would have squired an elim if they were a elim. Matrim did ignore the possibility of Ventyl being an elim trying to pocket them, but they turned out to be right.

Or possibly Matrim is an elim who decided to claim village and back Ventyl so that if Ventyl was lynched and was revealed as village then Matrim would be percieved as village because they supported Ventyl, or if Matrim was lynched and was revealed as elim then we would end up wasting another day discussing whether to lynch Ventyl or not.

Or not. Probably not.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Ah, so you have finally discovered the beauty of the I Know You Know predicament.

I think we should try and find something else out there to create suspects from instead of only building off Ventyl’s roleclaiming. Lynching Matrim isn’t worth it at this point.

Without writeup hints it’s hard to tell what our Radiants are up to. Perhaps our Dustbringer/Skybreaker has a suspicion they can act upon?

Edited July 7, 2020 by Ashbringer

[theTruthshaper]

2 hours ago, Illwei said:

Or possibly Matrim is an elim who decided to claim village and back Ventyl so that if Ventyl was lynched and was revealed as village then Matrim would be percieved as village because they supported Ventyl, or if Matrim was lynched and was revealed as elim then we would end up wasting another day discussing whether to lynch Ventyl or not.

Or not. Probably not.

IKYK is always weird. But it is helpful to consider it in terms of what was happening before. Gears argued on D2 that the fact that Matrim was arguing so aggressively on Ventyl's behalf meant that Matrim is not probably elim. Arguing aggressively is a good way to attract negative attention which an elim won't do. A villager can attract some negative attention because they don't have anything to hide. This argument is still valid when Ventyl flips village.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Hmm. Gears' last post seemed pretty village, as it was a tie then and there would be no reason to take any advice from somebody who flipped elim. I guess that post could make sense if elim!Gears knew there would be a vote removal and was thus confident of survival, but it does leave the question of why the elims didn't try to save Striker D1.

[Coffeecat she/her]

yes, yes, i spent all of my SE time writing RP for the other game instead of reading the thread.

 

all i can gather is that many expected ventyl to be elim, and now they are confused.

 

 

[|TJ| he/him]

@Matrim's Dice, why is Elbereth your biggest suspect?

[Mat he/him]

21 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Matrim's Dice, why is Elbereth your biggest suspect?

Let’s see.

1. She voted me last cycle, completely avoiding the Gears/Ventyl debate and giving virtually no reason for voting on me. I would think I’m at least soft-cleared by now and there are definitely better lynch targets than me, especially then

2. Orlok heavily suspects her 

3. She would work with a Gears/Ash/Elbereth/Possibly Pyro elim team, something I’ve suspected for awhile now.

4. Gut read.

If I get NK’d, refer back to this post please 

[|TJ| he/him]

Well, your gut has been accurate this game, so fair enough. 

[Gears]

@Matrim's Dice, would you rather lynch Elbereth or me? I would of course prefer you lynch Elbereth, but I'm certain Elbereth is thinking the same about me. 

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Gears said:

@Matrim's Dice, would you rather lynch Elbereth or me? I would of course prefer you lynch Elbereth, but I'm certain Elbereth is thinking the same about me. 

Honestly don’t care. Yesterday I definitely would’ve said you, but Ventyl’s hesitance makes it about even.

[|TJ| he/him]

56 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Let’s see.

1. She voted me last cycle, completely avoiding the Gears/Ventyl debate and giving virtually no reason for voting on me. I would think I’m at least soft-cleared by now and there are definitely better lynch targets than me, especially then

2. Orlok heavily suspects her 

3. She would work with a Gears/Ash/Elbereth/Possibly Pyro elim team, something I’ve suspected for awhile now.

4. Gut read.

If I get NK’d, refer back to this post please 

2. Also, why are you considering Orlok as village?

3. Gears and Ash are possibly not elims together. Ash had his vote on Gears when it could have been fatal for Gears.

 

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

2. Also, why are you considering Orlok as village?

3. Gears and Ash are possibly not elims together. Ash had his vote on Gears when it could have been fatal for Gears.

2. Dunno. It aligns with my own suspicions, though.

3. I am aware of this, but I still... suspect. I don’t think anyone has a good idea of what this game is 

[|TJ| he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

3. I am aware of this, but I still... suspect. I don’t think anyone has a good idea of what this game is 

True. Lol, how are we in this situation despite lynching an elim in D1? xD 

[Straw he/him]

The night is over!