Gears Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 25 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: @Straw, vote count please. I'm not Straw, but there have only been 4 votes, so here you go. Elbereth: 3 [Matrim's Dice, Gears, The Young Pyromancer] Eternum: 1 [TJ Shade] 1
Mat he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 8 hours ago, Gears said: @Matrim's Dice, why am I a target of suspicion? [I believe it was because of my vehement insistence that Ventyl was to be lynched, but some take that as a point in my favor as an elim would avoid vehemently targeting a villager.] Yes, but it also is largely myself and Ventyl's fault. I still have a bad gut read on you right now, FYI 4 hours ago, Magestar said: I'll throw a vote on Silb for now, because while looking over the thread I realized that most (and I think all?) of their posts are not game related, and I think they've been active enough in on the shard to have time to contribute something. This feels like an excuse to vote to me. I've got an increasingly bad gut feeling about you as the game progressed, and this doesn't help. Your defense of El and condemnation of Gears feels like defense and bussing respectively, but my analysis style is based largely on gut reads and other players' relation to those gut reads. So I could be very wrong. If I were to 'call' an elim team, I'd say Striker, Elbereth, Gears, Magestar, and shanerockes. shane because I'm assuming the elim vote manip has been inactive, and they just subbed in for Fifth. Not my strongest read by any means, but we should still watch to see if more vote manip pops up. 1
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Elbereth(3): Matrim, Gears, Pyro Eternum(1): TJ Silberfarben(1): Mage So as far as I can tell, most of the reasoning for Elbereth and Eternum comes from them voting for TJ over Striker D1. I feel relatively okay with El's posts; definitely not like her elim QF 44 playstyle. That could just be a result of having more time to put in effort. Eternum hasn't done a lot since D1, and is somewhat similar but still different from his last elim strategy of pushing hard for trust early, then disappearing into the background. Eternum didn't offer any opinions on Striker; at the time Striker had two votes and Eternum put a fourth vote on TJ. Gears apparently isn't a candidate today. If a vote had disappeared from Striker D1 I'd be much more willing to say Gears was evil, but since that wasn't the case, even if elim!Gears knew they would survive D2 it doesn't make a lot of sense that Striker wouldn't have been given the same protection unless it's a minimally active Radiant who missed D1 but was around for D2. Not putting a high likelihood on this, or on the possibility that TJ is evil. 1
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Agreed. As more and more positive evidence comes out on why Gears is innocent, I read them more and more as village. @Matrim's Dice, on the other hand, has not. What say you about Devotary's points? 1
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) I didn't get around to the rest of what Gears has done, I'll and do that during the night cycle. Here's the list of living players. Italics is mostly inactive, bold is a (current) village read from me. Joe Araris Devotary Elbereth Eternum Shane (TBD, but Fifth was) Mint Gears Illwei Kynedath Lahilt Silberfalen Mage Matrim Orlok Pyro Truthwatcher TJ Xino Zillah So over half of our starting players are inactive. Seriously everyone, that is really embarrassing. While I get that people are busy sometimes, there is no way that over half of the people in this LG are too busy to post/vote. I think it's somewhat (or perhaps extremely) disrespectful towards Straw to have such poor activity. Anywho, taking all the marked players off that list for now leaves: Devotary Mage Pyro Truthwatcher I'd suggest that we lynch one of these 4, given that we might have a somewhat interactive vote rather than what has happened today (for which I am partially to blame). However, it is also somewhat late in the cycle, and the risk of losing 1/8 of our active players in a mislynch without a full 48 hours of discussion might not be worth it. So I'll put my vote on Eternum, just so that we don't have a singular bandwagon on Elbereth (I'd be down to vote on Silber if anyone else prefers him to El/Eternum). Edited July 9, 2020 by Araris Valerian lots of random space removed 2
The Young Pyromancer he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Sure, you raise some good points. If Elb is village, that's a big hit against us activity-wise, which is something I didn't think about. However, if we lynch inactives, even inactive elims, and the elims kill active villagers, that's even more of a death sentence. I'm fine lynching Eternum over Elbereth, but will not abide by the same reasoning next cycle. 1
Gears Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Your reasoning appears sounds, but I agree with Pyro that lynching active people should be a priority next cycle. However, with 4.5 hours remaining, I do not think we will successfully transfer the vote to an active individual. As such, I will move my vote from Elbereth to Eternum. @Eternum, you are currently up for the lynch. Come hither and defend yourself. 1
Mat he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 7 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said: @Matrim's Dice, on the other hand, has not. What say you about Devotary's points? You know, my strong gut feeling against them has gone down, but I would still be fine lynching them. Maybe later, if something else goes wrong. What I don’t like is the switch to Eternum. I find them village, and honestly, their suspicion of me early on seemed genuine. I’m worried half of our active players are elims. This will not go well if that’s true. 1
Lahilt he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 I do not see much point in voting for Eternum with so many votes on them already. Of the active players I am most suspicious of Pyro and Araris but i could see a possible TJ Elim as well. 1
Magestar he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 44 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: What I don’t like is the switch to Eternum. I find them village, and honestly, their suspicion of me early on seemed genuine. I’m worried half of our active players are elims. This will not go well if that’s true. Yeah, this is what's concerning me. Araris already pointed out how many of our players are either completely or nearly inactive, and with the prominent players (Gears, TJ, Pyro, maybe Araris) controlling the lynch RN, it's starting to be a little worrying. I'm most concerned about TJ and Gears at the moment. I'm going to put my vote on Gears for now. This cycle ends in a few hours, correct? Edited July 9, 2020 by Magestar 1
Mat he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Just now, Magestar said: Yeah, this is what's concerning me. Araris already pointed out how many of our players are either completely or nearly inactive, and with the prominent players (Gears, TJ, Pyro, maybe Araris) controlling the lynch RN, it's starting to be a little worrying. I'm most concerned about TJ and Gears at the moment. I'm going to put my vote on Gears for the moment. This cycle ends in a few hours, correct? Yes, a bit over 3. I suppose I’d go back to Gears if more people went there over El. 1
Lahilt he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 32 minutes ago, Magestar said: Yeah, this is what's concerning me. Araris already pointed out how many of our players are either completely or nearly inactive, and with the prominent players (Gears, TJ, Pyro, maybe Araris) controlling the lynch RN, it's starting to be a little worrying. I'm most concerned about TJ and Gears at the moment. I'm going to put my vote on Gears for now. This cycle ends in a few hours, correct? Why Gears? 1
|TJ| he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Alright, this is for Day 2 with votes in Ventyl - Gears order: (I'll also add important posts which I find AI) I vote for Ventyl based on my suspicion in the previous cycle. 1-0. Gears follows. 2-0. Ventyl votes in self preservation on me. 2-0. Ashbringer wants explanation about Ventyl's confusion about Squiring taking charges. 3-0. Truthwatcher votes on Ventyl because he felt Striker continuous defended him. 4-0. Araris votes on Gears based on previous cycles suspicion. He states here he finds me and Ventyl village. Mild village but could be using elim knowledge to gain village cred. 4-1. Pyro votes on Elbereth purely based on Orlok's suspicion. Gives no reason himself. Neutral leaning mild elim. Ventyl changes his vote to Gears, possibly due to him having one more vote than me. 4-2. Araris tells that Ventyl might want to think changing his playstyle as he believes currently it objectively helps the elims. He recommends finding balance between trolling and being helpful to the village. I feel he is somewhat genuinely showing mild annoyance that Ventyl's actions aren't helpful to the village. Village read this post. Matrim voted on Gears, probably as alternate because by now he has been Squired by Ventyl. 4-3. Elbereth defends Gears and Ventyl, and is beginning to doubt her elim read on me. I feel like an elim would not be quick to give 3 village reads when she has good reasons to find them all suspicious. Further, when asked for her reads, she tells she doesn't know, which feels genuine. An elim would offer at least one mislynch candidate if they are (almost) clearing 3 villagers. Village post. Ash retracts his vote off Ventyl as he feels he needs to step back. 3-3. Joe votes on Gears as he feels Ventyl is village. 3-4. Mage votes on me. Anyone starting to find this suspicious? Like he pushed too strong and now feel like he cannot back out of it abruptly without seeming suspicious? Orlok votes for Ventyl based on gut. Finds me gut village. Haven't thought about Gears. Find it kinda odd since he had his vote on Gears for the entirety of D1. Mild elim. 4-4. Mint votes on Gears because she feels he's tunneling on Ventyl, and she'd rather lynch him. Unsure of AI. 4-5 Joe retracts his vote off Gears after reading my argument that Gears and Striker had voted on each other and kept their votes when it seemed detrimental to each other. 4-4. Pyro is fine with lynching Ventyl. Unsure. 5-4. Ash votes for Gears. 5-5. Elbereth votes for Matrim, presumably by reading the current page and thinking a lynch was between Matrim and Ventyl. She's still against the Ventyl lynch. Pyro disagrees with Elbereth's vote on Matrim, yet feels like they're she was distancing herself from Matrim. What was the need for her to distance herself from him? Mild elim on Pyro. 4-5. Magestar ties the lynch with a vote on Ventyl. He's not terribly suspicious of him, and tie sounds good to him. Paranoid!me is reading Mage elim. 5-5. Devotary breaks the tie and votes for Ventyl. She feels he's more village than at the start of the cycle. But it was in vain anyway, as a vote had been removed from Gears confirming the presence of at least a Windrunner or a Stoneward (both of which was mentioned by Striker as the possible elim Radiants). So I'm tempted to believe that the vote removal was from an elim either to save or to implicate Gears. Don't see an elim voting at the last minute on a person they know is a village KR, so I'm leaning mild village on Devotary. Unwilling to lynch (at this point): Matrim, Araris, Joe, Kynedath, Mint, Truthwatcher. Unsure: Magestar (leaning elim), Gears (leaning village), Elbereth (leaning village), Lahilt, Orlok (leaning elim), Devotary (leaning village), Pyro. Village read on Truthewatcher because he desired to lynch Ventyl in D1, but did not vote as he voted to give him a chance to Squire, and then actually followed his seemingly genuine suspicion on Vently in D2. Unsure about Gears because I'm a little scared he piggybacked onto my tunnel on Ventyl as he could them give the same reasons I did to escape a lynch. Unsure about Lahilt because he wanted to lynch Ventyl in D1 but did not vote at all in D2. I really hope we do not have an inactive Illuminator. I hope they were using their other Surges - Progression to save someone (possibly me or Mat), and Transformation to alignment scan. I really hope once the PMs are open, we have at least 2 alignment scan results to go, and the Scanner could reveal it to the person they trust, who could them reveal it in thread. And yes, we definitely need more village participation because I'm scared of the same thing so I'll start pinging everyone (except perhaps Orlok and Elbereth who seem to be dealing with IRL issues. Don't feel compelled to contribute guys, real life is more important.) @xinoehp512, @A Joe in the Bush, @Kynedath, @Frozen Mint, @Lord_Silberfarben, @Illwei, @Zillah - My two posts of this cycle should give you a brief idea of how the voting and the game went in the initial cycles. If you wanted to play, but could not give time to go through all the posts, this is your chance. Just disregard my personal opinion in the posts. @The_Truthwatcher, come vote. I think Eternum was pinged by Gears earlier. 1
Mint11 she/her Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Alright, I apologize, I was going to do a thorough analysis yesterday but that never happened. I'll try to get around to doing one today or tomorrow. I'm strongly opposed to lynching El. Partly because I haven't played with her in a while so I don't want her to die so soon, but I don't see those voting on El providing good reasons for their suspicions. They mostly sound like gut reads, and those reads mostly seem to be based on her playstyle. And if she is village, I'd argue that she'd be a major loss for the village, considering her earlier megaposts. I don't particularly suspect Eternum, but again, I still have to go through the previous posts. So given that there isn't enough time left in the cycle for me to review everything that's happened and how active players seem to be the only ones drawing attention (which is a small portion of the very long player list), I'm placing a vote on one of the inactives, xino. 3
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Eternum(5): TJ, Araris, Pyro, Gears, Devotary Elbereth(1): Matrim Gears(1): Mage Xino(1): Mint This is a pretty unassailable lynch. I guess I can make it more so, just as a note. I do think Eternum is the most likely to be an elim of the surviving voters for TJ over Striker D1, but it's worth looking elsewhere as well in subsequent turns. 1
theTruthshaper Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) Hmmm. Alright, last minute post. Gears, TJ: Very strong village reads. The whole incident with Ventyl makes me feel that they are probably village. (TJ moreso than Gears) @TJ Shade My plan to let Ventyl squire before lynching them was actually concocted by Gears. Matrim: Fairly strong village read. Defended Ventyl ferociously after squiring. Might be elim but very unlikely. Magestar: Slight elim gut read. No idea why, and don't have time to check it out. Mint: No read. Slightly suspicious because voting on a person with no votes this late in the cycle, when elims probably have vote manipulation is dangerous towards the village. EDIT: Didn't realize Eternum's lead probably not true with this lead. Lahilt: No particular read. Probably leans slight village. I am voting for Eternum simply because both TJ and Gears think them suspicious, and I don't want to divide the votes of the village. I don't have any particular reads on them, but I felt they were village in QF45 when they were actually the elim, so I might easily be wrong. Edited July 9, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher 1
Straw he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Author Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) There was a trial today for one of the guards in your group. Many people thought that he hadn't been doing his proper duty of protecting people, given all the people who were dead. Unfortunately, he never bothered to show up to his trial, and just wandered off into the plains, claiming that he was above the law. Eternum has died! He was a Refugee Skybreaker. Vote Count: Eternum (6): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Gears, The Young Pyromancer, The_Truthwatcher, TJ Shade Elbereth (1): Matrim's Dice Gears (1): Magestar xinoehp512 (1): Frozen Mint GM Notes: -The night will end on July 10th, at 1:00 PM EST. -Don't forget to get your actions in! -PMs are closed! -There will be a Highstorm tonight, so all Radiants and Squires will regain their Stormlight tomorrow! Player List: Spoiler @A Joe in the Bush @Araris Valerian Ashbringer Refugee @Devotary of Spontaneity @Elbereth Eternum Refugee Skybreaker @shanerockes @Frozen Mint @Gears @Illwei @Kynedath @Lahilt @Lord_Silberfarben @Magestar @Matrim's Dice @Orlok Tsubodai Sart Refugee StrikerEZ Diagramist @The Young Pyromancer @The_Truthwatcher @TJ Shade Ventyl Refugee Edgedancer @xinoehp512 @Zillah Edited July 9, 2020 by Straw 1
|TJ| he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 That's it. I'm not leading any more lynches. 2 times, and both of them village KRs. My reads are totally off this game. Storms how many more inactive KRs do we have?
Mat he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Can people listen to me for once? Seriously. I don’t care who, but next cycle I want Gears or El gone. Whichever more people prefer. I don’t expect to be around, and would like someone to trust me. I was right about Striker, Ventyl, and Eternum. Can we try my suspects? Again I ask for possible protection. Pretty sure I’ll be NKd this turn, though I might be overestimating my worth. I feel like the elims are controlling the lynch and that shouldn’t be happening this early in the game.
Gears Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 That was quite possibly the worst outcome we could have gotten. Matrim, I will listen to you in the near future. I propose lynching Elbereth next turn as the only two lynch targets are Elbereth and myself.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Might as well do it again. I ask for protection as well. Bah, I feel useless this game. So we have 19 players, probably 14-5. Probably 4 more mislynches for lylo. This is going to be a long game if the village Dustbringer is inactive as well.
Gears Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 Village protectors, flip a coin. Heads, protect Matrim. Tails, protect TJ. 50/50 chance they both get protected.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Gears said: That was quite possibly the worst outcome we could have gotten. Matrim, I will listen to you in the near future. I propose lynching Elbereth next turn as the only two lynch targets are Elbereth and myself. Emphasis mine. What exactly do you mean here? Anyone is a potential lynch target.
Gears Posted July 9, 2020 Posted July 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: Emphasis mine. What exactly do you mean here? Anyone is a potential lynch target. Current object of suspicion. The only two people that have been proposed for the lynch thus far are Elbereth and myself.
Recommended Posts