Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Gears]

@Ventyl, you are worthless if you do not manage to squire or act before your death. If you do not squire and you are killed, the village is left without a Knight. I expect you to squire. Anyone you want, just don't tell the thread. New squire, do not reveal your identity. That would undermine the entire point of the exercise [keeping a role alive] as the elims would then know your identity.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

Just now, Gears said:

@Ventyl, you are worthless if you do not manage to squire or act before your death. If you do not squire and you are killed, the village is left without a Knight. I expect you to squire. Anyone you want, just don't tell the thread. New squire, do not reveal your identity. That would undermine the entire point of the exercise [keeping a role alive] as the elims would then know your identity.

Well if the Squire gets my less useful Surge, Abrasion, then my role isn’t really kept alive.

[theTruthshaper]

Just now, Ventyl said:

Well if the Squire gets my less useful Surge, Abrasion, then my role isn’t really kept alive.

Could you just stop telling us about yourself? Please?

[Gears]

14 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

Well if the Squire gets my less useful Surge, Abrasion, then my role isn’t really kept alive.

I propose lynching Ventyl tomorrow, if only because his incessant information reveals are infuriating. 

[Ashbringer he/him]

The reason I would like to know your squire is because I was trying to think of a way to clear you. Squiring without telling gives the Village (probably) a boost, but won’t prove anything about you past your own word. Having a squire out as well ties you both together to help get a glimpse at both players’ alignments. But don’t out a squire without asking them first, and definitly don’t out a third Radiant.

That being said, if you really are an Abrasion user = Edgedancer/Dustbringer (do NOT verify which), that might be enough for me to back off. I’m hoping you’re Edgedancer (which in that case I somehow got correctly from my role-analysis-being-role-indicative theory) and that we don’t have a Dustbringer suspect N1. That would ruin this good start real quick. Either way, having a squire out on someone you trust as Village is probably a good idea in this case.

And like Truthwatcher said, please stop claiming things to the thread. 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

11 minutes ago, Gears said:

@Ventyl, you are worthless if you do not manage to squire or act before your death. If you do not squire and you are killed, the village is left without a Knight. I expect you to squire. Anyone you want, just don't tell the thread. New squire, do not reveal your identity. That would undermine the entire point of the exercise [keeping a role alive] as the elims would then know your identity.

That's going a bit far. Maybe step back and remember that this is only a game? Ventyl is allowed to protect themself and try to stay alive instead of going for the optimal village move.

Honestly at this point, I think Ventyl has done brilliantly. Assuming they're a villager Knight, the Elims aren't going to kill them. There's too little/much information about whether or not Ventyl is actually killable. The Elims are much more likely to target someone else and leave them alive for a while. It's better to go for a sure kill than a potentially blocked kill.

If they're an Elim, which I straight up do not believe is possible, then they have done a brilliant job in pretending othewise, to the point where I'm willing to defind them and makes sure someone else get's lynched.

Frankly, I think we should just ignore the Ventyl stuff for now and focus elsewhere.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

If Striker and TJ were both elims, it would have been relatively easy to lynch either Gears or Ventyl instead of committing to lynching each other, especially if there were more elim vote manipulators than just TJ. On a less mechanical note, I don't see Striker volunteering to be bussed D1 since he 1. Gets lynched D1 frequently, though a bit less so recently and 2. Isn't evil often and would want to live.

11 minutes ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

Why do you want to know who the squire is? That seems suspicious. While I agree with the rest of your points about Ventyl, that part is very suspicious.

Only the squire would know whether Ventyl was telling the truth if they don't claim, and if nobody says anything we have no way of knowing whether a squire was made or not or even whether Ventyl tried to squire. Since the odds of Ventyl being an elim are higher than the odds of him being a roleless villager at this point, it's not that useful for a squire to confirm whether Vently was telling the truth about being a Knight. Maybe if PMs go up it would be worthwhile to tell someone, but not incredibly valuable. I do think with an elim dead and some decent village candidates it's worthwhile to risk wasting stormlight to open PMs. Alignment scans are pretty useful though, and Striker asking about Gravitation/Progression/Abrasion does make it seem that the elims have Gravitation available to kill anyone not protected by Progression.

[Gears]

I would like to apologize to Ventyl. I have behaved in a manner that does not reflect the trivial nature of games. I shall attempt to move on from the Ventyl discussion as it really doesn't matter what they do, since the only way to verify their actions is to risk the life of someone else. For now, we should be attempting to find alternative lynch candidates. I can't think of any, sadly. Does anyone else have any major suspicions that do not include Ventyl, TJ, or Sart [my current "don't want to lynch" list]?

Edited July 4, 2020 by Gears

[|TJ| he/him]

I'll come back to your questions later, Elbereth. I'd rather analyse Striker's posts in case I die tonight. 

On 7/2/2020 at 0:29 AM, StrikerEZ said:

If Player A is using Abrasion on themselves, Player B targets Player A with Progression, and Player C targets Player A with a kill while using Gravitation, what happens to Player A?

A question about grav-assisted kill. It should have been our first indication about elim!Striker (It was mine, but y'all convinced me I was crazy (looking at you, Mage )). As Araris said, the question would be too suspicious for an elim to ask, that made me lean mildly towards village after Striker's answer. But this post isn't about me, it's about Striker. But this proves they have at least one gravitation role, more likely to be a Windrunner rather than a Skybreaker. 

On 7/2/2020 at 0:29 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Also, I think we probably have 5-6 elims, though I'm leaning towards 6, since that would be exactly 25% and I like that exactness.

He's probably honestly accurate here, though we should be worried about him underselling the elim team. 7 elims with a buff village is not unlikely, and something to be wary about.

On 7/2/2020 at 0:29 AM, StrikerEZ said:

As for what Radiants they might have, I'm thinking Windrunner, Edgedancer, and Stoneward are probably the most useful for the elims. Windrunner and Stoneward both have a vote manipulation ability and an ability that doesn't do basically the same thing for their second surge (i.e. Bondsmith). Windrunner and Edgedancer both have the ability to make it so an action can't be prevented, which is great for the elim kill. And Edgedancer has the protection as well. So, I think those are the three orders that are most likely to be elims. Granted, Straw could've gone completely crazy and giving them like a Lightweaver or something.

He's probably semi-accurate here too. Seeing as his earlier question about grav-assist kill, Windrunner is almost definite. Ventyl has all but confirmed he's an Edgedancer, and I do suspect him for reasons you'll see later in the post (of course there could be multiple Edgedancers, I'm not suspecting him solely on his role). The last statement makes me think they do have a Lightweaver though. Anyway, guessing the elim roles can be dangerous since there might be multiple KR of the same Order. 

On 7/2/2020 at 1:53 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Anyway, I'm interested to see why Gears really thinks that people can't be so certain that when the roleblock/redirect someone and results in something that seems like they hit an elim, they should be cautious. Like, yes, you should always be cautious when dealing with that kind of thing. But the odds of the effects not being caused by your actions are really really slim. Seems like it could be a way to cover the elims in case that happens to them, like he's trying to sow paranoia in our minds and stuff. I really like all the role analysis he's been doing so far, but all of that is basically completely NAI as far as I can tell. I'm gonna go ahead and put a vote on Gears because I want to see what he has to say about this.

I'm not quite sure if this is distancing. This came pretty early in the cycle and stayed very late until he shifted his vote onto me. Someone could chime in about it. I feel like it's not, makes me give a few more village points to Gears.

On 7/2/2020 at 11:04 PM, StrikerEZ said:

Is it a little excessive? Maybe. But did it spark some discussion and get people talking about me and Gears? Absolutely. And I think it was worth it. I do still think that Gears was being a bit too paranoid, though I’ll admit I was underestimating just how many redirects and roleblocks are probably in the game.

Too little role-blocks and redirects with the elims? They already have one via Windrunner, which makes me think they don't have Elsecaller or Willshaper (or Bondsmith since it can work as a double-roleblock as well, if you think I'm an elim!Bondsmith). It also makes me think he was lying about elim!Stoneward. This also strengthens the elim!Lightweaver because I believe they do have at least one scanner, and if it isn't an Elsecaller, it should be a Lightweaver. 

On 7/3/2020 at 5:53 AM, StrikerEZ said:

I guess that makes sense. I'm just not too suspicious of that because that tends to be how Devotary plays most of the time. It's in the later game when stuff like that sets off my radar, because she normally starts to give more reads and stuff as the game reaches the middle/end.

This.. I'm not sure. It feels like an appeal to behave like a villager. Since my last long post till this post, even if Devotary's posts were not lynch discussion, her posts definitely felt helpful to the village. More on Devotary in a read post. 

14 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I don’t think the Gears lynch is going anywhere. I still think that the paranoia thing was a bit much, but I’m less certain of his alignment based on that fact now, based on how he’s responded and how others have reacted. I think I’ll be voting for TJ Shade. Partially in self preservation, and partially because I don’t like how much their vote has been flying around. I understand wanting to lynch someone (it is a point of the game ), but they seem almost...too eager to join on any new lynch train that’s forming, and tend to back off as soon as momentum dies down a little bit.

*IMPORTANT* This is the prime reason I suspect Ventyl. At the time of this post, I was on 3 votes, Ventyl was on 3 votes, and Striker was on 4 votes. My vote was on Ventyl. He voted on me, specifically preferring a lynch on me over Ventyl. He obviously knew that if he voted on me, I would also shift my vote to him as self-preservation, which would end up with him on 5 votes and lynched. He had a vested interest in saving Ventyl above me, and above himself. That too with the knowledge of Ventyl being a KR. It doesn't make any sense at all for him to prefer a lynch on me if there was a village KR as one of the prime lynch candidates. Is it only because they're siblings, or do I make sense?

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Gears said:

Does anyone else have any major suspicions that do not include Ventyl, TJ, or Sart [my current "don't want to lynch" list]?

I flagged Devotary, but I'd like to hear more from her next cycle. I feel like Elbereth has said a few things that felt off to me, but that's probably just because she's said a lot of things. I'll need to go back and see what specifically I disagreed with.

13 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

A question about grav-assisted kill. It should have been our first indication about elim!Striker (It was mine, but y'all convinced me I was crazy (looking at you, Mage )). As Araris said, the question would be too suspicious for an elim to ask, that made me lean mildly towards village after Striker's answer. But this post isn't about me, it's about Striker. But this proves they have at least one gravitation role, more likely to be a Windrunner rather than a Skybreaker. 

This is a good point, especially considering that Gravity would help the elims given all the action manipulation effects that will likely be flying around this game. Although, it's worth considering that Striker just threw this out there to mislead us. I also certainly would not go down the rabbit hole of trying to guess role distributions. 

On the topic of Ventyl, I bet he's just trolling, trying to become the new STINK. 

[Illwei]

the more ventyl talks the more I think they're elim because they seem to be drawing a lot of the discussion. Otherwise I'm inclined to be believe anyone encouraging/partaking in the ventyl discussion is elim... er- except for me. 

This is so confusing. Also would a squire lose their power if their knight dies? if so, squiring someone wouldn't have much of an effect on the game if the knight dies the next day or so. It also wouldn't prove someone's knight-ness to the general public if the squire didn't verify so a double pointless...I think...

[theTruthshaper]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

This is so confusing. Also would a squire lose their power if their knight dies? if so, squiring someone wouldn't have much of an effect on the game if the knight dies the next day or so. It also wouldn't prove someone's knight-ness to the general public if the squire didn't verify so a double pointless...I think...

The squire retains their powers.

 

[|TJ| he/him]

Alright, time to answer some questions. I'll have you note that if I was an elim, I would not have dropped a read post you to analyse after my death which would indicate a lot of things, especially since I was fairly certain that I would die. (I had 5 votes, and the next nearest was 2 votes.)

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Yes, that was my point! Your defense of your vote on Ash was essentially 'but why would I have done that when I could've just hidden in the wagons already formed? why would I do something that's a known elim tell?' and yet here (and in the QF post I quoted) you're explicitly saying that jumping on wagons is something you view as elim-y. That's a pretty significant contradiction. 

I'm...not sure I get you here. I believe hiding and bandwagoning in a elim behaviour. I also condemn bandawagoning early in D1 as I believe spread votes generate more discussion. And I did not join among the voters. Are you saying that I'm an elim and I'm avoiding what I believe is elim behaviour? I'm not sure what's contradictory here. I believe bandwagoning is elim behaviour. I'm a villager, so bandwagoning is harmful for village, and hence did not join. Where is the contradiction?

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

I'm somewhat confused by your read on Araris, especially when contrasted with the one on Devotary - yes, it's entirely possible that Araris is hiding behind his normal style. (Also, I'm pretty sure his vote on Devotary was not just that she didn't already have a vote on her? I'll go back and check but I'm nearly certain that's not the case.) But shouldn't that, like with Devotary, make him a null read? What makes you lean mild elim on him? 

On 7/3/2020 at 1:22 AM, Araris Valerian said:

I’m going to put my vote on Devotary for now. I agree with Elbereth that Devotary is kind of neutral despite making several posts (and I find staying neutral to be inherently elimy). It’s also possible that if Devotary flips elim, Striker is also an elim (not a super strong connection, but better than nothing. I also realize that there are currently no other votes on Devotary, but there is some time for that to change.

I explained it in the post itself. Basically his voting pattern, poking Ventyl, then retracting and giving reason for his poke. And then his vote on Devotary. So I was beginning to see some evidence of him hiding behind his voting style. No such thing from Devotary. I no longer find Araris as mildly elim due to his posts from this turn, but more on that in the read post. 

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Sooo first off, you left out a part of Eternum's post where he seemed to change from the gut village read to 'confusion'. Secondly, he explained in the next post you quoted exactly why he voted Ventyl despite that village read. So why does 'he voted on Ventyl despite having a gut village on him' seem suspicious to you? Does it seem suspicious? You're pointing out a contradiction here, but not strictly saying what you think about it. 

Contradiction is inherently suspicious, no? Especially in a single post.  Why does anyone vote on someone they have a village read on? He went from gut village to confused to voting for him? I was very vocal about not fully trusting Ventyl from the very beginning. My responses in between Eternum's post had no relation to his post. Yet he retracted it, telling he wanted to see if there would be a train, yet retracted it before giving it time to see whether a train would build. Also, you asked whom among my voters do I find the most suspicious. It seems Eternum just used my suspicion on Ventyl to vote for me, so all together, I told him, along with Ventyl would probably be the elims who voted for me.

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

'Seems like an excuse for your vote-hopping' especially - what's your world, here? If he's evil, why did he vote Ventyl? Why did he change onto you? You and I both changed votes significantly more times than Eternum; why do you feel this change in particular is suspicious? 

It's not the number of times he's changed that's significant. It's the time duration between them. "I just wanted to see what you would do" seems like a very easy way to get off suspicion for changing votes between short duration. 

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

Disagreed here.  You were under suspicion from some people, but defended by others and some people gave no opinion either way. I certainly wouldn't have used vote manip to save you, but I would not have been that surprised if another villager did. (Two would be a stretch, though.) 

I ask you to name one villager who would take the risk of doing that. And I say risk because Mint was especially discouraging the villager from using vote manip, and everyone seemed to think tie would be the best result. Most of the people who did not vote for me because they liked the alternate better. Even Matrim, probably the person who trusted me voted among all of you, still felt swayed by you in the end to be fine with my lynch. 

11 hours ago, Elbereth said:

And yeah, I never got around to pointing it out, but TJ's elim read on Striker for that question probably felt so flimsy to me in part because if it were actually a suspicious question there'd be a very easy alternative for elim!Striker. 

I don't quite understand this. Does easy alternative mean asking in the elim doc? 

Probably my strongest defence is the same point I made earlier about Striker voting for me instead of Ventyl:
I'll be as clear as possible. It was 4-3-3 (Striker-Me-Ventyl). I had my vote on Ventyl. At this point, Striker chose to go for me over Ventyl. If I was an elim, why would he do that, especially since y'all seem convinced Ventyl is village KR? Ventyl would be a proper lynch candidate for me and Striker. He could have voted for Ventyl to make it 4-3-4, and I could have Tensed/Adhered a vote off Striker to set up Ventyl for the lynch (3-3-4) . Please give me a good reason why Striker voted for me over Ventyl (i.e. why he voted for his teammate over a village KR, according to you).
Another point is that 3 votes on me were very solid and were on pretty early in the cycle. I had a solid train, not many votes getting off. How would you explain an E/E train? They brought up the Striker lynch as a counter for me? Who is they? Joe? Matrim? Sart? Why would they bring an elim counter against me, when they could have easily chosen a village. Gears and Ventyl were just as easy to lynch as Striker. Why him? Explain please. Seriously, evidence in support of village!me is strong if you just managed to look. 

@Magestar, the same goes for you. I had to use up my 2 charges in the very first turn (when I had to spread it over 6), and I've had to role-claim and will likely get killed sooner rather than later and still you say "Soft-clearing is going too far"? Will you still tell that your perception of my vote on Ashbringer negates or overcomes everything I've said in the above para? 

Elbereth, I'm just beginning to feel like you're being very uncertain in your approach here. You seem to agree with me at times, and just.. back off? You mentioned my very mild village on Striker not once, but twice, while you have been the strongest person against a Striker lynch. Don't you think your focus is entirely and too heavily on me? From my perspective, it looks like an elim is trying to derail the thread from discussing actual lynch candidates by focusing purely on me and trying to pin suspicion on me for a mislynch in future cycles. Who else are you suspicious of? Who are you willing to lynch next cycle? Who are your current elim reads? 

My updated reads to come a bit later. 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

I trust TJ. The only way he's an Elim is if Ventyl is also an Elim.

[Magestar he/him]

10 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Magestar, the same goes for you. I had to use up my 2 charges in the very first turn (when I had to spread it over 6), and I've had to role-claim and will likely get killed sooner rather than later and still you say "Soft-clearing is going too far"? Will you still tell that your perception of my vote on Ashbringer negates or overcomes everything I've said in the above para? 

Well, here's the thing.  I'm not suspicious of you just for your vote on Ash.  Your vote on Striker doesn't clear you because not only was it unnecessary it also came really late in the cycle, after you also tried to get Ventyl lynched over Striker.  And your burning two charges to save yourself is also pretty NAI.  Role-claiming as self-protection is almost more an Elim move...  but even ignoring all that, I'm still suspicious of you for your tone.  The tone of your posts just seems a little frantic, which is weird to me.  You never seemed frantic when you were a villager, and I'm pretty sure someone else confirmed that this tone seems off for you, so I know it's not just me.

12 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Probably my strongest defence is the same point I made earlier about Striker voting for me instead of Ventyl:
I'll be as clear as possible. It was 4-3-3 (Striker-Me-Ventyl). I had my vote on Ventyl. At this point, Striker chose to go for me over Ventyl. If I was an elim, why would he do that, especially since y'all seem convinced Ventyl is village KR? Ventyl would be a proper lynch candidate for me and Striker. He could have voted for Ventyl to make it 4-3-4, and I could have Tensed/Adhered a vote off Striker to set up Ventyl for the lynch (3-3-4) . Please give me a good reason why Striker voted for me over Ventyl (i.e. why he voted for his teammate over a village KR, according to you).
Another point is that 3 votes on me were very solid and were on pretty early in the cycle. I had a solid train, not many votes getting off. How would you explain an E/E train? They brought up the Striker lynch as a counter for me? Who is they? Joe? Matrim? Sart? Why would they bring an elim counter against me, when they could have easily chosen a village. Gears and Ventyl were just as easy to lynch as Striker. Why him? Explain please. Seriously, evidence in support of village!me is strong if you just managed to look. 

Yeah.  This whole lynch was weird.  I don't know if I've said this already, but I still think the Striker lynch was weird.  I'm glad we got an Elim, but the reasons for voting for them still confuse me.  I mean, look - 

16 hours ago, Gears said:

Sart: Disliked the distracting discussion concerning mechanics.

TJ: Self-preservation.

Joe: Didn't want to vote TJ.

Matrim: Didn't want to vote TJ.

That's just kind of a silly lynch.  Three out of four votes because they didn't want TJ to die.  It's weird.  Right off the bat this sort of voting reads bad.

The thing is, Striker's vote also doesn't make any sense.  I feel like in LG67, I didn't understand the Elim voting patterns either.  Sometimes Elims do sub-optimal things?  IDK.  I just don't know.

This is probably the only post I'll make till the end of the cycle.  I'll see you guys next day cycle.

[Coffeecat she/her]

Hey again.

I really cant follow this, i will see if i am able to be more active in the later cycles, when there is less people.

[Straw he/him]

5 hours ago, Illwei said:

This is so confusing. Also would a squire lose their power if their knight dies? if so, squiring someone wouldn't have much of an effect on the game if the knight dies the nexor so. It also wouldn't prove someone's knight-ness to the general public if the squire didn't verify so a double pointless...I think...

Squires retain their power after their Knight dies.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Lol @Elbereth so evil.

[Mat he/him]

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

That's just kind of a silly lynch.  Three out of four votes because they didn't want TJ to die.  It's weird.  Right off the bat this sort of voting reads bad.

My vote on Striker wasn’t just based on TJ. I would’ve been fine with a tie, though I preferred Striker over TJ so I voted Striker as my strongest elim suspect.

I agree leaving Ventyl alone is the best idea for now. At this point, so many people have told him to stop claiming things that him letting a surge slip was most likely purposeful, either to get us to focus on him, or... I dunno. He wants us to talk about him. I can’t really see why village!Ventyl would care about that. If someone would alignment scan him, that would be appreciated.

[Gears]

Does anyone have any ideas on who to lynch tomorrow? The only certain thing is that I don't want to lynch TJ, and probably not Sart. There are 2.5 hours left in the cycle, and we have absolutely no suspicions [or we do and no one's said anything]. We've just mentioned how TJ is soft-cleared. 

[|TJ| he/him]

@Magestar

Well, if you brush off hard evidence as weird, I can't do anything. I'm honestly tempted to drop the subject, but I'll make an attempt to convince you anyway. Yes, it's unusual. But it's a D1 elim lynch for storm's sake. It's bound to be unusual. I'd seriously like some scenarios from you about what could possibly be the case if I was elim. Something that makes more sense than the simplest answer - All 4 of us who voted for Striker are village. Also, the quote for Gear's post is heavily over-simplified. Matrim had heavy suspicion on Striker as well. 

5 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

I trust TJ. The only way he's an Elim is if Ventyl is also an Elim.

Thank you for the vote of confidence, Joe. Though I'm not sure why you think I'm an elim if Ventyl is one too. I've actually been pushing heavily for his lynch. Also, that would make the last end-of-cycle train as E/E/E which would be highly improbable. 

Right, time for some reads:

So we can establish that there is at least 1 elim (other than Striker) who voted on me, and at least one elim who was active for the whole cycle but refrained from voting.
Voted on me: Elbereth, Eternum, Araris, Striker. I'm removing Araris because seems village from his posts in this turn. That leaves one or both of Elbereth and Eternum as elims. There's also Orlok with a vote on Gears, but more on that later.
Refrained from voting: Gears, Ashbringer, Truthwatcher, Devotary. Out of these, I'm most suspicious of Ashbringer.

Gears: Similar to Sart's vote on Striker, I feel Striker's vote on Gears was too pushy to be distancing. He leaned hard on the paranoia part. Also, if he was an elim, he would know that he'd be the prime suspect for his retraction of my vote irrespective of the flip. Instead, he could have just voted for me if he wanted me dead or wanted to save Striker.  Mild village.

Orlok: Not sure if this level on activity is normal for him. He's focused only on Gears and Elbereth so far. Voting on Gears flimsy, but later stated he wasn't too attached to Gears lynch. Unsure.  Would like an answer from someone who has played a lot with him about his activity level.

Ashbringer: Very much get the feel like he's posting to not appear as lying low. I don't feel like he's actually making valid contribution towards lynch discussion, and he did not vote. I remember only one read post with 3 players. Mild elim.

17 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Especially since Striker flipped Elim, I’m more inclined to believe the second, but I don’t think we should full clear TJ yet, as I could see the Elims bussing a roleless to save a Radiant. (And I kinda would love to see what an Evil!Bondsmith would be like in general...)

Explain how the bussing would go please. Refer to my defence in the previous post for why such a buss would be impossible as there was another non-elim(according to you), candidate (Ventyl).

Eternum: Refer to my reply to Elbereth's post, and my suspicion from previous cycle. One of those who voted for me, staunchly against Ventyl lynch, and suspected Matrim, one of my strongest village read. Moderate elim.

Matrim: I really liked how he backed himself and voted for Striker despite retracting it earlier. I've had a good feeling about him the entire game. He had suspicion and he didn't back down despite there being a chance that he would be suspected for it. Village.

Joe: Agree with everyone. Village.

Araris: I really liked his posts from this cycle, even if I don't agree him elim suspects. Just a tiny thing is bugging though. @Araris Valerian, when you mentioned active people who did not voted, you mentioned Devotary, Gears, and Truthwatcher. Why didn't you mention Ashbringer? Very mild village.

Magestar: I'm willing to read village just for their vote on Ventyl which they did not change even when it reached 3 votes. But apparently, voting for Ventyl just to see my reaction has become a thing?? First Eternum, and now Magestar. Very mild village.

Frozen Mint: Couple of warning posts: 

23 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

I would encourage villagers to not use vote manipulation this turn because what I see happening in that case is that the village then spends a significant amount of time debating whether the vote manipulation was by the elims and, if so, should we lynch the saved player this turn? It'll serve as a distraction which is good for the elims, bad for us.

She gives a good reason as to why villagers shouldn't use vote manip, but there's a possibility that she's dissuading a village vote manip from saving me.

14 hours ago, Frozen Mint said:

14 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Well that went better than expected. I agree with what Gears did. Leaving it up to the Elims to vote manip the lynch tells us that they didn't have any active mannipers online at the end.

Or they didn't want to show their hand

Trying to stray away from the fact that there could be semi-active elims who couldn't use vote manips? Very mild elim.

Truthwatcher: I was getting a very good vibe from him until the moment when he was pro-Ventyl lynch, but just decided not to vote for him even when there were 3 votes on him. @The_Truthwatcher, what happened? Will wait for response before making a read. 

Sart: Agree with everyone. Village.

Ventyl: EVIL!

10 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

*IMPORTANT* This is the prime reason I suspect Ventyl. At the time of this post, I was on 3 votes, Ventyl was on 3 votes, and Striker was on 4 votes. My vote was on Ventyl. He voted on me, specifically preferring a lynch on me over Ventyl. He obviously knew that if he voted on me, I would also shift my vote to him as self-preservation, which would end up with him on 5 votes and lynched. He had a vested interest in saving Ventyl above me, and above himself. That too with the knowledge of Ventyl being a KR. It doesn't make any sense at all for him to prefer a lynch on me if there was a village KR as one of the prime lynch candidates. Is it only because they're siblings, or do I make sense?

Devotary: Gut village.  Makes a good point here: 

13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

If Striker and TJ were both elims, it would have been relatively easy to lynch either Gears or Ventyl instead of committing to lynching each other, especially if there were more elim vote manipulators than just TJ. On a less mechanical note, I don't see Striker volunteering to be bussed D1 since he 1. Gets lynched D1 frequently, though a bit less so recently and 2. Isn't evil often and would want to live.

@Devotary of Spontaneity, any reason why you did not vote? 

Elbereth: I'm slowly beginning to suspect her. Mainly for her reluctance to see beyond me. Also because she strongly opposed Striker's lynch, and seemed to heavily suspect Matrim. Might be tunneling, or might just be claiming to be tunneling as an excuse to push out a mislynch. I hesitate to fully dive into suspecting her because Orlok suspects her as well, and I'm uncertain of Orlok's alignment. Might just be beginning to agree with Orlok though. Mild elim. 

Probable elim team: Eternum, Ashbringer, Elbereth, Ventyl with an outside chance of Frozen Mint, Orlok, and probably some semi-active player. 

@Gears, people tend to not give out their reads or state suspicion during the night cycle for the fear of getting killed if they are right. I have no such qualms.  (I'm just joking, Progressionist pls save me xD) 

Edited July 4, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

5 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

@Gears, people tend to not give out their reads or state suspicion during the night cycle for the fear of getting killed if they are right. I have no such qualms.  (I'm just joking, Progressionist pls save me xD) 

How disappointing. Given your reasoning above, Ventyl does seem slightly more likely to be an elim. I'll have to reread Eternum's posts, as I can't remember anything they've said. I don't know about El, but if no lynch candidates come to light by the end of D2, perhaps.

[Mint11 she/her]

8 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

She gives a good reason as to why villagers shouldn't use vote manip, but there's a possibility that she's dissuading a village vote manip from saving me.

A village vote manip was just as likely to save Striker as it was to save you. I don't see how my stance was pro-Striker.

9 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

 

Trying to stray away from the fact that there could be semi-active elims who couldn't use vote manips?

I'm confused? Joe said that the fact there was no vote manip done to save Striker means that the elims have no vote manip. I was refuting him. No vote manip in Striker's favor isn't a confirmation that the elims have no vote manip abilities. Which is what you're saying here, just with different reasoning?

[Gears]

Just now, Frozen Mint said:

A village vote manip was just as likely to save Striker as it was to save you. I don't see how my stance was pro-Striker.

I'm confused? Joe said that the fact there was no vote manip done to save Striker means that the elims have no vote manip. I was refuting him. No vote manip in Striker's favor isn't a confirmation that the elims have no vote manip abilities. Which is what you're saying here, just with different reasoning?

TJ is saying that your statement implies the existence of elim vote manip, possibly as an attempt to make the elims appear more threatening. I don't think this is especially telling, considering that I mentioned the incapability or unwillingness of elims to vote manip in an earlier post, which Joe replied to and agreed with, yet somehow cut out the "unwilling" part.

[|TJ| he/him]

1 minute ago, Frozen Mint said:

A village vote manip was just as likely to save Striker as it was to save you. I don't see how my stance was pro-Striker.

Yes, and it's a chance right? And it's a possibility and I felt you attempted to nullified the chance. 

3 minutes ago, Frozen Mint said:

I'm confused? Joe said that the fact there was no vote manip done to save Striker means that the elims have no vote manip. I was refuting him. No vote manip in Striker's favor isn't a confirmation that the elims have no vote manip abilities. Which is what you're saying here, just with different reasoning?

You seemed to imply that the elims are active and have vote manip, but didn't use. There's a possibility elims were inactive hence they couldn't vote manip. Your post seemed to imply they deliberately did not use it. I'm telling there's a possibility that they couldn't use it, which would indicate a semi-active team which you might be attempting to hide. Nothing glaring, something to look in the further cycles.

Of course, all my suspects are from the current active pool. So, if there are a few inactives in the elims, then there are bound to be few villagers in my list. My pool indicate the ones I suspect the most who have been active.