xinoehp512 he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Here I am, 2 hours before rollover. 10 pages is a lot- I'll see what I can do, but I probably won't be able to get anything out until the night turn.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Well...this is interesting to say the least. I’m a bit intrigued by the fact that a lynch train managed to form on me, and it seemed everyone was willing to go for it, then all of a sudden everyone swings for Ventyl instead? I honestly don’t understand either of these lynches, though I think I understand mine even less than Ventyl’s. With Ventyl, at least it makes sense. Many people cannot see a good reason for why he’s done what he’s done if he were a villager. Personally, I could see him doing this no matter what his alignment, as I think he’s crazy enough to do it either way. Or maybe dumb enough, depending on how you look at it. But at least the suspicion on him makes sense, even if I don’t agree with it. As far as I can tell, people want to lynch me because I asked a question? Like, it was a bit complicated, but the question came about because I was staring at El’s role chart thingy for who knows how long, just thinking about different ways all the surges could interact together. And people are still suspicious of my vote on Gears when I think I’ve made it pretty clear that 1) it was not based solely on a disagreement over roles and 2) it was based on the fact that I thought he was overstating the unreliability of one’s actions. At least I think these are the reasons people have decided to lynch me. If not, could someone shed some light on the situation for me? I don’t think the Gears lynch is going anywhere. I still think that the paranoia thing was a bit much, but I’m less certain of his alignment based on that fact now, based on how he’s responded and how others have reacted. I think I’ll be voting for TJ Shade. Partially in self preservation, and partially because I don’t like how much their vote has been flying around. I understand wanting to lynch someone (it is a point of the game ), but they seem almost...too eager to join on any new lynch train that’s forming, and tend to back off as soon as momentum dies down a little bit.
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: will get to analysis in c. 30 mins. as said before, key to ventyl lynch is whether we think their assumption re most players being kr is genuine. cant understand how they would arrive at this conclusion @Ventyl (cant uncapitalise mentions ) as squiring mechanic demonstrates need for large number of non-kr in game. My thought was that, there is probably at least one villager for each order. Maybe two for some like Willshaper and Bondsmith. Then the there are probably five or six elims. So probably two or three of them have roles. So that’s about 14-15/24 players with roles. Just a little bit over half, which in my mind is a majority. Another thing I’ll add is that I don’t think Squiring would be the main part of the game. I think it’s supposed to be more based around the Radiants themselves. I mean the Surge a squire gets is completely random, so if they got Abrasion instead of say, Divison, they wouldn’t really be that useful. A lot of the Surges aren’t that great without one of their pairings so, that’s my thought process on why I think a majority of the players are Radiants. Also, welcome @xinoehp512 to the chaos that this game has become!
Ashbringer he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 (edited) I don’t really want to vote on anybody. I suspect Ventyl and TJ’s half-claims and reactions, but I don’t want to tunnel-lynch Ventyl again and I don’t see why TJ’s suspicion is so bad. I also read Gears as village and have no idea where a Striker lynch came from. That being said, letting Ventyl live to squire tonight I think is a better plan. D2 we can ask to see who he squired. If no one pipes up in his defense, then we lynch him. It’s not perfect, but it helps. I’ll be inactive for the next hour, so I don’t have time to make a reasoned vote. So I’m not going to try to. Edit: oh, or he could hit a Radiant. That makes a wrench in my plan Edited July 3, 2020 by Ashbringer
Gears Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Ventyl said: My thought was that, there is probably at least one villager for each order. Maybe two for some like Willshaper and Bondsmith. Then the there are probably five or six elims. So probably two or three of them have roles. So that’s about 14-15/24 players with roles. Just a little bit over half, which in my mind is a majority. Another thing I’ll add is that I don’t think Squiring would be the main part of the game. I think it’s supposed to be more based around the Radiants themselves. I mean the Surge a squire gets is completely random, so if they got Abrasion instead of say, Divison, they wouldn’t really be that useful. A lot of the Surges aren’t that great without one of their pairings so, that’s my thought process on why I think a majority of the players are Radiants. Also, welcome @xinoehp512 to the chaos that this game has become! At best, I would assume 1 Knight per Order, and some of those would be elims. However, given the number of players, not all Knights might be represented, though I believe all Surges will be in game. I am in favor of leaving Ventyl alive for tonight at least and maybe tomorrow if the squiring fails, though if Ventyl is an elim, they could lie and say it failed so we'll leave them alive, so we may just want to lynch them tomorrow. I don't care between TJ and Striker. @Straw, vote count?
Straw he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Author Posted July 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gears said: @Straw, vote count? StrikerEZ (4): A Joe in the Bush, Gears, Matrim's Dice, Sart TJ Shade (4): Araris Valerian, Elbereth, Eternum, StrikerEZ Ventyl (3): Lahilt, Magestar, TJ Shade A Joe in the Bush (1): Ventyl Gears (1): Orlok Tsubodai
theTruthshaper Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said: Here I am, 2 hours before rollover. 10 pages is a lot- I'll see what I can do, but I probably won't be able to get anything out until the night turn. I am pretty sure it is just an hour until rollover. You might want to hurry up. I think it is clear that all three vote trains are very shaky and we scarcely require an analysis to understand that. I will not be voting since in my opinion the best guess is Ventyl, and we are going to consider them the next day. We should also be careful of vote manipulation. If any of you really want to lynch someone, you might want to get a larger lead. Edited July 3, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher
Gears Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 I am in favor of leaving the tie between TJ and Striker in place. Any vote manipulation that comes into play will provide some insight.
theTruthshaper Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 (edited) Just now, Gears said: I am in favor of leaving the tie between TJ and Striker in place. Any vote manipulation that comes into play will provide some insight. True that. But I doubt that the elims would tip their hand this early. Edited July 3, 2020 by The_Truthwatcher
|TJ| he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Huh, I...honestly don't know what to make of the post. Never heard of a player telling role-claiming is their play style. You intentionally put yourself in harm situations for information? I don't get you at all. 25 minutes ago, Ventyl said: What could I gain? Information, depending on the people who have strongly pushed for my lynch, such as yourself, when I flip village we’ll have a clearer lynch target. I'm like the only person pushing hard for your lynch. As such, for a person claimed to be a village KR, there has been literally no attempts at a mislynch on you at all. Only after a lot of convincing posts have I managed to sway maybe 1-2 players. 25 minutes ago, Ventyl said: Such as A Joe in the Bush, who is the first one to vote on Striker about an hour after your post. This leaves time for him to discuss the idea of framing you in the elim doc. There was literally no need to frame me. He could have voted for me and I'd be on 6 votes and halfway towards the dead doc. So I'm not quite sure of this. They'd lynch Striker this cycle, and use his lynch to frame me? Hmm, not sure about that. 11 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: I don’t think the Gears lynch is going anywhere. I still think that the paranoia thing was a bit much, but I’m less certain of his alignment based on that fact now, based on how he’s responded and how others have reacted. I think I’ll be voting for TJ Shade. Partially in self preservation, and partially because I don’t like how much their vote has been flying around. I understand wanting to lynch someone (it is a point of the game ), but they seem almost...too eager to join on any new lynch train that’s forming, and tend to back off as soon as momentum dies down a little bit. Give an example please. I'll give you my thoughts on my votes. I voted on Gears thinking it was 5-2-2, having not noticed Gears' vote on you (as in it was actually 5-3-2). After my vote, it became 5-3-3, then Joe voted for you and Mage retracted his vote on me making it 4-4-3. At this point, Straw corrected me showing Gears' vote on you. My obvious choice for self-preservation was you, so I voted to make it 4-5-2. I will remind you I stated my strongest suspicion on Ventyl back before all this. So when I saw people suspecting and voting for Ventyl, I'll obviously shift to see if I can get my strongest suspect lynched right? Ever since you replied to my question, I had no intention to lynch you. My vote on you was just to save me. And I definitely will change my vote in the direction that will save my life again if need be.
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: Huh, I...honestly don't know what to make of the post. Never heard of a player telling role-claiming is their play style. You intentionally put yourself in harm situations for information? I don't get you at all. I'm like the only person pushing hard for your lynch. As such, for a person claimed to be a village KR, there has been literally no attempts at a mislynch on you at all. Only after a lot of convincing posts have I managed to sway maybe 1-2 players. There was literally no need to frame me. He could have voted for me and I'd be on 6 votes and halfway towards the dead doc. So I'm not quite sure of this. They'd lynch Striker this cycle, and use his lynch to frame me? Hmm, not sure about that. Give an example please. I'll give you my thoughts on my votes. I voted on Gears thinking it was 5-2-2, having not noticed Gears' vote on you (as in it was actually 5-3-2). After my vote, it became 5-3-3, then Joe voted for you and Mage retracted his vote on me making it 4-4-3. At this point, Straw corrected me showing Gears' vote on you. My obvious choice for self-preservation was you, so I voted to make it 4-5-2. I will remind you I stated my strongest suspicion on Ventyl back before all this. So when I saw people suspecting and voting for Ventyl, I'll obviously shift to see if I can get my strongest suspect lynched right? Ever since you replied to my question, I had no intention to lynch you. My vote on you was just to save me. And I definitely will change my vote in the direction that will save my life again if need be. I did say that my theory was mostly tinfoiling but I thought there could be some possibility. Your unwillingness to let anyone defend you is interesting, though to be fair I did say I still have my suspicions of you. Though, I won’t take my vote of @A Joe in the Bush because I really don’t have any other ideas as to who could be an elim. Because, your unwillingness is giving me some slight village vibes. Normally, an elim would probably welcome any defense that is given to them, so either you’re being very clever and are an elim, or being very clever and are village. I’m leaning more towards village now, but I’m not sure.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Ventyl said: Your unwillingness to let anyone defend you is interesting, though to be fair I did say I still have my suspicions of you. Though, I won’t take my vote of @A Joe in the Bush because I really don’t have any other ideas as to who could be an elim. Because, your unwillingness is giving me some slight village vibes. I'm usually very very careful about people who defend me( Eg. Fifth in QF45). That's like the first step towards pocketing. I don't think you're pocketing me though. But as you said, you're vote on Joe is weak. Edit: I'm very scared of a late hammer. Mage will probably shift his vote back to me. There's Devotary waiting to play the executioner. So many people unwilling to vote. Jeez. Edited July 3, 2020 by TJ Shade
|TJ| he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Very well. I can't risk a last minute vote. Since everyone is scared to vote for Ventyl, I'd have to vote for you, Striker. Sorry, you leave me with no choice. Sorry for the double-post, but I'm voting.
Gears Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Striker. I have stated that I wish to maintain the tie. I will change it if someone breaks the tie.
Mint11 she/her Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, TJ Shade said: I'm very scared of a late hammer. Mage will probably shift his vote back to me. There's Devotary waiting to play the executioner. So many people unwilling to vote. Jeez. I don't think it's going to be as much of a thing as it was in the last QF. Partly because this is an LG and partly because I think that particular level of craziness isn't all that common. Regarding vote manipulation, it would be very interesting to see how a tie plays out. I'm trying to think if it would give us any useful information, without also giving the elims useful information. Honestly, I'm having a hard time coming up with a scenario where vote manipulation info would help the village in this case. I would encourage villagers to not use vote manipulation this turn because what I see happening in that case is that the village then spends a significant amount of time debating whether the vote manipulation was by the elims and, if so, should we lynch the saved player this turn? It'll serve as a distraction which is good for the elims, bad for us.
theTruthshaper Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Gears said: Striker. I have stated that I wish to maintain the tie. I will change it if someone breaks the tie. This is pure evil. What happens during the Night Cycle?
Mat he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Just now, The_Truthwatcher said: This is pure evil. What happens during the Night Cycle? Kills/Other actions Why is it evil? I also think a tie would be beneficial.
|TJ| he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 I'm Bondsmith. I'm using vote manip to save myself. Will explain if my actions aren't roleblocked and I survive.
Straw he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Author Posted July 3, 2020 Just now, The_Truthwatcher said: What happens during the Night Cycle? Most of the important actions (kills, protects, scans, etc) happen during the Night.
theTruthshaper Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 Just now, Matrim's Dice said: Kills/Other actions Why is it evil? I also think a tie would be beneficial. Evil for TJ. The uncertainity TJ would face. So, the elims talk in the dead docs; if the PMs were open then we could talk, but otherwise villagers don't do anything?
Straw he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Author Posted July 3, 2020 (edited) During the light rainfall at the end of the storm, there was a small fight between several members of your group. One of the fighters ended up dying, which seemed bad, but it turned out he was a Diagramist. Yay! Also, during the fight, two of the people attacking Galatar didn't land any punches, which was kind of weird. StrikerEZ has died! He was a Diagramist! Vote Count: StrikerEZ (4): A Joe in the Bush, Matrim's Dice, Sart, TJ Shade TJ Shade (2): Araris Valerian, Elbereth, Eternum, StrikerEZ Ventyl (2): Lahilt, Magestar A Joe in the Bush (1): Ventyl Gears (1): Orlok Tsubodai GM Notes: -The night will end on July 4th, at 1:00 PM EST. -Don't forget to get your actions in! -PMs are closed! Player List: Spoiler @A Joe in the Bush @Araris Valerian @Ashbringer @Devotary of Spontaneity @Elbereth @Eternum @Fifth Scholar @Frozen Mint @Gears @Illwei @Kynedath @Lahilt @Lord_Silberfarben @Magestar @Matrim's Dice @Orlok Tsubodai @Sart StrikerEZ Diagramist @The Young Pyromancer @The_Truthwatcher @TJ Shade @Ventyl @xinoehp512 @Zillah Edited July 3, 2020 by Straw
Gears Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 TJ took a vote off himself, and someone else took a vote off him. Would anyone like to fess up to the deed?
|TJ| he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 No I took both the votes off myself. One using Adhesion and one using Tension. I was scared of getting role-blocked or someone voting late on, so I didn't want to take my chance. What use is an extra charge if I'm dead?
Mat he/him Posted July 3, 2020 Posted July 3, 2020 (edited) Hey I was right about Striker! That greatly helps my D1 confidence. Thoughts to come once I future out how to access my notes on mobile but I do think this makes TJ more likely to be good. Edit: @Straw, are we told if someone is a Radiant when they die? Edited July 3, 2020 by Matrim's Dice
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