Long Game 67: The Road to Urithiru

[Eternum he/him]

El's being very active, pretty aggressive too. Village read so far. Votes moving around a lot, but I don't mind that.

I have a gut feeling Ventyl is village.

Agreed with El that Mat telling everyone to be careful is weird. The wording bugs me most. Uncertain language about something that should be very clear. Objectively, the idea of the post is NAI, but I have a bad feeling about it.

I've never been able to read Orlok. This is nothing new. Generally agree with him, but I get a weird vibe from his posts for some reason. (Having read his next post, I think I know why. Pfft.) Disagree on pre-game analysis posts being weird, though. He'd have written it before he knew his role or alignment and would have posted it regardless of alignment too. (Unless he didn't write it before the game, but I'm not sure if that's possible.) Changing it afterwards, as Sart proposes later, seems risky. It's not a bad move, of course, but you run the risk of your post looking curated and being more carefully worded than it has to be. So the only reason to change it would be if Gears was an elim.

Thanks, Araris. For the chuckle and for the perfect example of what the mentality behind any vote should be Beginning to realize I'm biased towards people with this playstyle, so I should keep that in mind moving forward.

I like Ashbringer so far. Their posts feel different from QF45, but they weren't active for the first couple of cycles so I'll have to see more.

I agree with what Sart has to say, even if the role analysis part is not as clear-cut as that. There are three total possibilities here: Sart's proposal (elim!Gears alters analysis before posting to promote strategies that hurt the village), elim!Gears post the unaltered analysis (to look more village), or village!Gears posts the unaltered analysis (simply because it's useful). I'll come back to this in a different post, probably.

Do not like Mat's follow-up to Sart's post. Saying you understand something, then going back on that the moment a vote opportunity is presented, feels weird to me.

Disagree with Truthwatcher on waiting benefiting village. Fresh off of an elim game, I found myself constantly saying we should wait and see how things progress before making a move. We need to be proactive. Reacting to how the game plays out is the most comfortable position for an elim.

TJ, I think Ash messing up the player count isn't a big deal. It's not a freudian slip or anything, it's just a moment of uncertainty about something that's.. fairly unimportant to the discussion. Very odd vote and your reasoning seems tinged in a lot of paranoia

...I don't know about Ventyl anymore, honestly. Said I had a village gut read at the beginning, but at this point I have no idea.
The interactions between him and TJ are interesting, though. I'm not sure what to take from it yet, but I'm gonna vote on Ventyl.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Eternum
Some formatting, some grammar.

[|TJ| he/him]

Fine, maybe I was over-thinking the Ashbringer bit. But, I'm keeping a close eye on you, Ash. 

As I said before, I really don't want to lynch a KR if Ventyl is indeed telling the truth. And I don't like the other options present, so I'll see how the situation goes. 

Edited July 2, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Gears]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Fine, maybe I was over-thinking the Ashbringer[\color] bit. But, I'm keeping a close eye on you, Ash.  

As I said before, I really don't want to lynch a KR if Ventyl is indeed telling the truth. And I don't like the other options present, so I'll see how the situation goes. 

Edit: What is wrong with the code??

Wrong slash. It has to be a forward slash, like so. [/color]

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Wrong slash tj.

Re:Gears, I wasn't pushing their lynch. If I was, I would have voted, but even thewn I might not have been pushing their lynch. More likely I would have been trying to bait Kynedash, since their previous post didn't feel that suspicious of gears, and them following my lead would have been an elimy move.

[Elbereth she/her]

Good morning!! 

10 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

This is a lot on information to take in, but:

Gears: This is almost exactly how they acted in QF45, except for the changed opinion on poke votes. However, that could be due to the increased length of the game.They were suspicious of Elbereth but did not want to vote. However, were later convinced by Elbereth, Orlok and Araris.

Elbereth: The voting is suspicious, but maybe only because I dislike such random voting. While the argument for random voting appears to be accurate, it really leads to a case of privileging the hypothesis. Once you have everybody's attention upon a person, they become much easier to lynch.

Ventyl: Why did you ~sort of~ roleclaim? Especially this early? After so many people warned against it?

StrikerEZ: They claimed that Ventyl's roleclaiming was NAI, which is possible. Then, voted for Gears claiming that Gears is trying to spread paranoia. 

Orlok: They pushed people to vote even on small suspicions. I disagree with this as waiting clearly helps village; it allows for a clearer frame of mind and prevents random vote trains from forming. They voted for Gears, because of a pre-written role analysis post, saying that this allows for easy swaying of opinions.

Araris: They randomly (from my POV) decided to kill Ventyl. They have given no explanation for this.

Devotary: They only talked about how the Surges would interact with the gameplay. There is no accusation or defense of anyone.

Sart: They voted for StrikerEZ as they felt the discussion about Adhesion/Transportation was a distraction.

Matrim: They warned that Ventyl's roleclaim could be an elim tactic. It feels too transparent for an elim, but this still is a valid concern. They got very confused about StrikerEZ and thus was convinced by Sart.

Ashbringer: Basically the same as Devotary. They also were suspicious of Ventyl as Ventyl had tricked them in a similar manner last LG.

Lahilt: One post. They state opinion of poke voting.

Pyromancer: Very few posts. They were pushing a Gear lynch to Kynedath.

Kynedath: One post, no particular reads.

 

I really dislike the current voting trends. None of the votes fell like they have much reason behind them, and are mostly reflections of very weak suspicions/differences of opinion. I am mostly suspicious of Aranis seeing that they have give no explanation for their Ventyl lynch.

Hey, this is a good summary! Do you have opinions on anyone beyond Araris? You've summed up each player nicely, but what do you think about those summaries? Do any of them make you feel like the player is good? Are any of them beyond Araris suspicious? 

Re: your summary of me, 1) my voting isn't random (well, the vote on TJ was, but the other two have had reasoning!), and 2) you're not wrong, in that it puts pressure on people who are around and active. And I won't deny there are problems with that, since people who are active just above the inactivity filter line can sneak under the radar very easily this way - but I do think it's worth it, because even if those lurkers are evil, voting for them generates far less discussion and is thus much less useful in determining the alignment of anyone but the person who ends up voted out. (I would encourage village kill roles to look closely at that group of low posters as potential targets, though.)

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

But, I do think Matrim is right to be apprehensive about Ventyl, since Matrim did in fact fall in to role-claim tactic by Ventyl in the previous LG. If you fall for a particular kind of trick, it's only natural to be cautious the next time you feel something similar is happening. For these reasons, I would not like to lynch either Ventyl or Matrim in D1.

A good point from Lahilt. Since our (Elbereth's :P) current tactic is to focus all the discussion among the people who are active, it gives the elims a good reason to just lay back and let us discuss. The only vote on a player not yet posted is Ventyl's on Joe. Yes, I agree that for discussion sake, pressuring the people already here is a good way to get some reads, but at some point, we have to give the inactives some attention too. Speaking of, @xinoehp512, @Lord_Silberfarben, @Eternum, @Frozen Mint, @Fifth Scholar, @Zillah, @A Joe in the Bush, @Illwei, don't feel shy guys. Join in! (Also, if you're busy, please just drop a post. We'll stop pinging you, and you can join when you're free.)

Do you think Matrim's warning about Ventyl is alignment-indicative? Do you think he would not have made the same post as an elim? (I agree that the context of the previous LG makes that post seem very justified/I no longer find it suspicious, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes him look village.) 

Mhmm, that's a very fair point. Focusing on activity is definitely best for discussion, but it only works if most people are in fact active. 

3 hours ago, The_Truthwatcher said:

So, this is these player's normal play style? Why do Orlok and Araris play like this?

Because they (and I) think it's best for the village to play that way.  

3 hours ago, Ventyl said:

There are a few things I want to say to this. One, I didn’t necessarily roleclaim, I’ve just (anti-roleclaimed?) said I’m not a Willshaper. If I was a Willshaper, we’d be seeing Lafay instead of Valas. 

You've roleclaimed that you have a role, Ventyl.  This game isn't role madness - I think it very likely that more than half the players are roleless, in fact, and the elims want to find and kill all the village KRs as soon as possible. Which now includes you. 

1 hour ago, Magestar said:

On that note; I do think poke votes are NAI.  Araris' stab vote on me in LG66 is a good example.  I think you'd say that's the more useful kind of vote, but Araris was a kandra in LG66.  There's no reason Elims can't do either kind of vote.

 

This seems very odd.  Ash's thing isn't really suspicious at all.    You could say it seems a little like couching, but even villagers do that.  I do that.  And the second quote seems like grasping at straws.  Don't let the paranoia overtake you, TJ.   

Hmm.  What else.  Ventyl's odd behavior seems normal for what I've seen of Ventyl, although they were an Elim in the only game I've played with them, so it's hard to say.  The thing with Matrim and Striker is a little odd, but not necessarily alignment indicative.  Could be a distancing tactic if they're both Elims, but that's a stretch this early.  I'll throw a vote on TJ for now.

Oh certainly, I'm not trying to say that votes-with-intention are something only villagers do (although I think they're something that could be AI if the meta moved away from poke votes somewhat - ie poking inactives is an easy vote that doesn't require developing suspicion which is hard for elims thus they're more likely to do it), just that they're more useful to the village no matter who casts them. And elims casting them is especially useful since we can look back on those votes later once an elim dies and be much more certain about our conclusions from them. 

I... hm. I'm not sure I'd be opposed to a lynch on TJ today. (Not sure because I'd rather give him another day or so to help discussion, but this brought to my attention that he's been really flying under my radar. If it weren't such a pain, I'd look through his playstyle for past games, because I could very easily see the suspicion on Striker/Ash being an elim looking for some kind of suspicion somewhere.) 

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I'm completely new at forum mafia, (and don't know how much to take from the RP bits) so I'm still trying to firgure out how to...think? here, but I'm slightly suspicious of Ventyl, mostly because claiming to be a radiant seems suspicious just because I would assume it paints a target on your back. However, I really have no clue, because I'm completely new to Forum Mafia.  : )
 

I'm still trying to figure things out, but I figured I'd try and be a good sport by posting something, as it's been a day since the start.

Welcome! As TJ said, RP is usually very separate from game discussion. Thanks for posting something, and please post any thoughts you have even if you feel like they're silly or people have already said them - the best thing you can do for the village is say what you think!  

 

Current Reads

• Xino - not here yet. Null read. @xinoehp512
• Orlok - neutral, verging on mild suspicion (focus on me & Gears feels weird). Want to see further posts. 
• Gears - mild village. Liked his response to my vote on TJ, and he seems similar to the few cycles of the recent QF I read (where I assume he was village, though I'm realizing right now that I don't know that for sure)
• Ash - neutral. Lots of activity (love it! please keep it up!) but very little in the way of suspicions or commenting on others' interactions. Content generally seems very NAI.
• Eternum - very mild village. Only really have the one AI post to go on, but it's a good one, I think - lots of reads and thoughts. @Eternum, what made you go from 'Ventyl reads village' to 'confused about Ventyl' to voting on him? I'm particularly interested in the latter transition. 
• Striker - ehhh. Very mild village, probably - feels like normal D1 Striker, ie I'm gut reading him as mildly suspicious in a very particular way, which happens every game.  Mostly reserving judgement here. 
• Matrim - mild evil. His response to Ventyl's claim, and then me asking him about that response, didn't feel quite genuine to me. 
• Joe - null read, looking forward to him being around. 
• Araris - null read, being the same himself as always. Reserving judgement. 
• TJ - very mild evil read, based on the post Mage pointed out / gut. I'd like to go back and look at his posts; I'd somewhat prefer to leave him alive another day but would not be strictly opposed to that lynch. 
• Pyro - null? Hasn't posted much, and nothing AI that I remember. Would like to see a vote or reads from him. 
• Kyn - mild village. Liked his post re: Matrim and then his response to my question about that. 
• Ventyl - moderate village. Difficult to see a world where an elim draws that much attention to himself. 
• Silber - null, hasn't posted anything AI yet. Looking forward to him being around. 
• Mage - neutral/very mild village. Liked him poking TJ, I think. 
• Mint - null, hasn't posted. @Frozen Mint come playyyy
• Lahilt - null/neutral. New and trying to participate! Would love to see a vote or a read from them. 
• Truthwatcher - null/neutral. Clearly paying attention and loved the player summary - I'd like to see some reads from them as well. 
• Fifth - null, hasn't posted. @Fifth Scholar COME PLAY ...very surprised to see that he visited the site four hours ago and didn't check in. Please do that.  
• Devotary - neutral. Have never been able to read her, and don't really expect that to change, but I'd love to see a vote nonetheless. 
• Illwei - very mild village. New and trying to participate! I liked the thought process on Ventyl - it seemed very natural. Would love to see a read or two!
• Sart - neutral. Didn't particularly agree with his post, but didn't find it very AI either. Reserving judgement. 
• Zillah - hasn't posted, I think? If she has, I missed it. 

Summary 

Not here yet: Xino, Joe, Silber, Mint, Fifth, Zillah
Here but not enough info to tell anything: Araris, Pyro, Lahilt, Truthwatcher

Mild evil: Matrim
Very mild evil: Orlok, TJ
Neutral read: Ash, Devotary, Sart
Very mild village: Illwei, Mage, Eternum, Striker
Mild village: Kynedath, Gears
Moderate village: Ventyl

I'm not particularly interested in lynching anyone from my village lists today, but that applies especially to Striker (because he's just Like That D1 so I want to give him a bit of time) and Ventyl (bc I really don't think he's evil atm). I'm also against lynching Araris (because people suspect him for his playstyle far too often and I will defend him until and unless he does actually suspicious stuff), Illwei/Lahilt/Truthwatcher (because they're relatively new and trying to interact and I want to encourage that), or anyone who's said 'hello I'm here I'll post when I can' (ie Joe and Silber). Those are the people I'll actively defend. 

From what I can tell, we're now at a 4-way tie of 2 votes between Gears, Striker, Ventyl, and TJ. Of those, TJ Shade is the one I would be by far most okay with going after (though if anyone wants to move to Matrim with me I would be even more fine with that ). 

also I only woke up to one page to go through and I was so happy y'all. after champs this game is so nice and slow and I love it

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

Agreed with El that Mat telling everyone to be careful is weird. The wording bugs me most. Uncertain language about something that should be very clear. Objectively, the idea of the post is NAI, but I have a bad feeling about it.

What about my wording was weird? I can't remember what I put :P. The funny thing was that I warned everyone to be careful as a way to agree with El, who I believe also warned everyone to be careful. Instead she voted on me  

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

Do not like Mat's follow-up to Sart's post. Saying you understand something, then going back on that the moment a vote opportunity is presented, feels weird to me.

That whole deal was weird. I was totally confused about Striker's wording, and the explanation he and Devotary gave didn't help. But I didn't want to force to issue on something that didn't matter D1, so I - yes - lied about understanding. Probably wasn't the best idea. Either way, when I saw I wasn't the only one with a suspicion on Striker I took the opportunity to vote.

But it doesn't look like that's going anywhere at the moment, and with the resolution given I'll take my vote off StrikerEZ

Edit: Ninja'd by El's multiquote. Will edit again in response :P.

Edit 2: 

19 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Ventyl - moderate village. Difficult to see a world where an elim draws that much attention to himself.

^Very good point, IMO. This helps with my tendency to gut-read Ventyl as elim.

19 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

TJ - very mild evil read, based on the post Mage pointed out / gut. I'd like to go back and look at his posts; I'd somewhat prefer to leave him alive another day but would not be strictly opposed to that lynch.

The thing with TJ is that I've suspected elim!TJ the past two games in the dead doc and been wrong on both accounts, so I'm a bit skeptical on gunning for him. I wouldn't be opposed to his lynch, it probably would give us good info on Ventyl and the people lynching him, but he probably isn't where my vote will end up.

Random question- What's tinfoiling?

I will only be active in this cycle for about 8 more hours, unless I can figure out how to get mobile internet connection to work in a car traveling through the middle of nowhere

Sorry for the ghost posts I may have caused anyone...

Edited July 2, 2020 by Matrim's Dice

[Gears]

A reads list and a poor summary. This summary is genuinely terrible. I am disappointed in my summarisation skills. I c

Matrim: Nothing he's said has really stood out to me. Reiterates no roleclaiming. Null read.

Ashbringer: Says that role analysis is more likely to be role indicative than alignment indicative, which I mildly agree with. Null read. 

The_Truthwatcher: Put out a splendid summarisation that is obviously superior to my own. I don't remember them doing anything else. Null read.

TJ Shade: Jumps on Ashbringer's uncertainty about the number of players, which I do not understand. Null read. I don't understand his paranoia, but I do not believe an elim would risk drawing attention for a paranoid theory.

Elbereth: Votes TJ, switches to Ventyl, switches to Matrim. I dislike the votehopping, but I think this is simply a matter of differing opinions concerning votes. Null read

Striker: Votes on me for a differing opinion concerning roleblocks/redirects. Null read, with a dash of confusion concerning why a person would vote on someone over a dispute of roles.

Araris: Randomly votes on Ventyl. I mildly disagree with this, but from what I've gathered, this is Araris's playstyle, so I will leave it alone. Null read. 

Devotary: Exists, hypothesized Surge/game interaction. Null read.

Ventyl: Roleclaims [partially] despite numerous warnings to the contrary. I dislike this, but I'm uncertain as to how this would benefit elim!Ventyl. Slight village read, if only because I cannot envision a universe in which an elim would roleclaim. Assuming Ventyl being truthful about the existence of their role, we have several potential courses of actions. 1. We lynch Ventyl to determine veracity, which is probably a bad idea, though I believe Ventyl is currently the one slated to be lynched. 2. We protect Ventyl from being utterly massacred by the elims, which is doomed to failure because of the limited Stormlight and incapability of protectors to coordinate, and this prevents any information from being gained by their death. 3. We ignore Ventyl, and if they don't die from the elim kill soon, we lynch them then, which is of course suspect to error but does allow for the opportunity not to lynch village!Ventyl. I say we go for options 1 or 3, preferably 3 because I don't suspect Ventyl. 

Orlok: Doesn't like my pre-game analysis. I don't see how role analysis is affected by alignment. The roles are the roles, regardless of whether one is elim or village. Null read.

Sart: Votes Striker for the roleblock/redirect argument and successfully summarizes what I was attempting to argue in two succinct points. Thinks role analysis is AI, which I disagree with. Null read. 

Mage: Also thinks role analysis is alignment indicative, which I still don't understand. Someone, please explain how that is the case. Null read.

Kynedath: Summarised the Matrim/Striker confusion nicely. Null read.

Eternum: Votes on Ventyl after stating that they think Ventyl is village. @Eternum, could you please elaborate on your descent into suspicion and paranoia? Null read because of a lack of information, but please respond.

Conclusion: Something must be done about Ventyl. As stated above, we can lynch Ventyl now, protect Ventyl, or spare Ventyl and lynch them if they don't die to the kill soon [or just not lynch them at all, but that seems like a poor choice]. I support the third option. I am currently amenable to lynching Striker [The vote on me seems suspect] and perhaps TJ [I don't particularly suspect TJ, but the tunnelling on Ash seems odd]. 

Also, I have no elim reads and only 1 village read. This is mildly concerning. Maybe I should go reread the thread.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

2 hours ago, Magestar said:

On that note; I do think poke votes are NAI.  Araris' stab vote on me in LG66 is a good example.  I think you'd say that's the more useful kind of vote, but Araris was a kandra in LG66.  There's no reason Elims can't do either kind of vote.

I think the behavior is NAI, but the actual votes aren’t necessarily. If an Elim has votes on themself D1, then there are probably some AI poke/stab votes flying around.

1 hour ago, Ventyl said:

I don’t think letting them know I’m a Radiant is a big deal, because I’m going to guess that the majority of players are Radiants so would it really be a surprise? 

This gives me a mild village read on Ventyl. Also, my original vote on Ventyl came because there was a pseudo-justification for voting on Joe rather than Ash, but poke votes don’t really need a justification, so it seemed like hedging to me, despite the emote. Anyway, I doubt that most players are Radiant, because it would detract from the Squiring mechanic. And I think it somewhat likely that the elims would have spent some time discussing role distribution by now. I think it could also be argued that a singular role claim might make an IKYK for the elims, given that Ventyl is probably a reasonable target for a protection action now.

I’m going to put my vote on Devotary for now. I agree with Elbereth that Devotary is kind of neutral despite making several posts (and I find staying neutral to be inherently elimy). It’s also possible that if Devotary flips elim, Striker is also an elim (not a super strong connection, but better than nothing. I also realize that there are currently no other votes on Devotary, but there is some time for that to change. If I had to vote on Shade or Gears, I’d probably pick Shade to solidify the vote since I have roughly equal trust/distrust of the two.

[|TJ| he/him]

17 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

Do you think Matrim's warning about Ventyl is alignment-indicative? Do you think he would not have made the same post as an elim? (I agree that the context of the previous LG makes that post seem very justified/I no longer find it suspicious, but I wouldn't go so far as to say it makes him look village.) 

No, I just meant that his statement (in which he intended to agree with you) is not suspicious in itself. I still think he was genuinely confused about Striker's statement, and as such still read him as null, rather than elim. But I would take up your offer to move my vote to him in self-preservation. 

24 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

(Not sure because I'd rather give him another day or so to help discussion, but this brought to my attention that he's been really flying under my radar. If it weren't such a pain, I'd look through his playstyle for past games, because I could very easily see the suspicion on Striker/Ash being an elim looking for some kind of suspicion somewhere.) 

Basically, the same thing that's been happening so far. I draw an unfair amount of suspicion based on my D1/C1 votes because I tend to over-analyze posts because I'd like my votes to have some reasoning behind them. In doing so, my reasons seem flimsy and draws suspicion. Mostly, the suspicion comes from elims but ends up drawing the villagers too. 

I'm a bit surprised by the "flying under the radar" bit. Mint said the exact same thing in QF45, and she flipped elim. I'm trying to ask people their reasoning behind their votes. I stated I dislike Gear lynch due to the odd reasoning of Orlok behind it. I stated my disapproval at Ventyl's claim. 

Maybe it's because I'm inactive when you guys are the most active due to timezone incompatibility. I don't feel like I've gone under the radar at all. 

I asked Striker what I thought was a fair question, and when he gave a satisfactory answer, I accepted it. Surely I could have added to the trains of Gear/Striker/Ventyl instead of drawing suspicion for a vote on Ashbringer if I was an elim, yeah? I was trying to see who defends him and who joins me in voting for him, but that didn't happen. 

We also need to talk about Ventyl. He told with strong conviction that he expects to be killed tonight. So why do it? Why claim to the thread? It serves no purpose at all. It only created confusion. Why should we dismiss it because an elim would not want to draw attention to themself? Why would a villager draw the attention of elims? Let's see the advantages he gets by claiming if he's an elim. 

- Possible protection from the village 

- Escape from the lynch

- Trust of the villagers, possible info from the role-claim. 

By the time we realize this is happening, there will be a lot of info for the elims. 

So he has all the motive to do this as an elim, and quite no motive at all to do this as a villager. We shouldn't be so quick to dismiss his actions as too improbable for an elim. 

[Gears]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

We also need to talk about Ventyl. He told with strong conviction that he expects to be killed tonight. So why do it? Why claim to the thread? It serves no purpose at all. It only created confusion. Why should we dismiss it because an elim would not want to draw attention to themself? Why would a villager draw the attention of elims? Let's see the advantages he gets by claiming if he's an elim. 

- Possible protection from the village 

- Escape from the lynch

- Trust of the villagers, possible info from the role-claim. 

By the time we realize this is happening, there will be a lot of info for the elims. 

So he has all the motive to do this as an elim, and quite no motive at all to do this as a villager. We shouldn't be so quick to dismiss his actions as too improbable for an elim. 

This is true, which is why I noted that we might wish to refrain from lynching Ventyl for a few cycles and see if the elims kill them. If they do not [after a time interval we all agree upon, such as 1 or 2 cycles], we may wish to lynch them.

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

This is true, which is why I noted that we might wish to refrain from lynching Ventyl for a few cycles and see if the elims kill them. If they do not [after a time interval we all agree upon, such as 1 or 2 cycles], we may wish to lynch them.

This means that every villager needs to be vigilant and not give out any information to him via PMs for the duration. 

[Illwei]

43 minutes ago, Gears said:

This is true, which is why I noted that we might wish to refrain from lynching Ventyl for a few cycles and see if the elims kill them. If they do not [after a time interval we all agree upon, such as 1 or 2 cycles], we may wish to lynch them.

I see things like this - which do seem logical - and my mind immediately sees that as suspicious because it feels like a way to misdirect

On the other hand I still want to think Ventyl is an elim because people seem to have arguments as to why they aren't that base around their strategy not being good for an elim- Not saying that they would be a bad elim, but that one might ..pretend? to be a bad elim to make people think that they...aren't? the elim?

I...I can't trust anything

[Eternum he/him]

So, I wanted to hold off on explaining my reasoning on the Ventyl vote, but there's no point. I don't want to lynch them because they're probably the strongest village read I have right now, but I wanted to see how much momentum the train would gather. If Ventyl is indeed a Radiant, the elims have a vested interest in trying to make that lynch happen, especially considering the IKYKs that will ensue tonight (will the elims attack Ventyl, will Ventyl be protected, is Ventyl even a Radiant..). It's risky, of course, but I'd try it in that position.

Beyond that, I also wanted to see the reactions to my vote. Specifically if TJ would say anything. He didn't directly respond to me, but he did say he's hesitant to vote on Ventyl. I'm not sure if I'm reading too far into this, but it feels like he's distancing himself from a lynch beneficial to the elims. As I'm writing this, he goes back on that post from earlier and considers the possibility that Ventyl is actually elim. Oddly flip-floppy on whether or not he wants the lynch, it seems. I'll talk about the Ventyl situation more in depth at the end of this post, as I'm getting sidetracked way too often.

The way he got his vote off of Ashbringer is very weird too. Reads to me as an elim trying to back off of a lynch that won't happen with some sort of dignity intact. Remind me of how I backed off of TJ himself in QF45, and I was an elim there, so...

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

What about my wording was weird? I can't remember what I put :P. The funny thing was that I warned everyone to be careful as a way to agree with El, who I believe also warned everyone to be careful. Instead she voted on me  

That whole deal was weird. I was totally confused about Striker's wording, and the explanation he and Devotary gave didn't help. But I didn't want to force to issue on something that didn't matter D1, so I - yes - lied about understanding. Probably wasn't the best idea. Either way, when I saw I wasn't the only one with a suspicion on Striker I took the opportunity to vote.

But it doesn't look like that's going anywhere at the moment, and with the resolution given I'll take my vote off StrikerEZ

Edit: Ninja'd by El's multiquote. Will edit again in response :P.

Just the "sort of seems", "could be", very non-committal language. It's a red flag for me, makes it feel like you're distancing.

If your goal was simply to agree with El, you.. could have just said you agree. The way you frame it makes it seem like you were trying to look like a contributing villager while simultaneously attempting to pocket El. That's probably why she voted on you.

So, first off, some clarification on what they're saying:

Imagine someone claims Dustbringer. Then someone else comes out and counter-claims Dustbringer. Assuming there's only one of each role, lynching one of them tells us with near certainty what the other's alignment is. If the first one is village, the second one is elim or vice versa.

Second, I find it very odd that you were fine with not having all the information. Asking for clarification when you don't understand someone's train of thought is always a good idea. Makes me feel like you already know he's a villager, so you just accepted the first explanation you got, then went back to it after you saw an opening to vote.

So, the Ventyl situation is one enormous IKYK. My current assumption is that Ventyl is just a roleless villager trying to draw the elim kill away, but I have genuinely no idea. We're not dismissing it entirely, I just think that the chances of this being a village play are far higher than the chances of it being an elim play. I think gut reads play a part in this as well, though.

I took too long writing this down and forgot something else I wanted to say, but if I forgot it's probably unimportant I'm most supportive of a TJ or Matrim lynch. Right now, though, I'm going to vote on TJ Shade.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Eternum

[Gears]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I see things like this - which do seem logical - and my mind immediately sees that as suspicious because it feels like a way to misdirect

On the other hand I still want to think Ventyl is an elim because people seem to have arguments as to why they aren't that base around their strategy not being good for an elim- Not saying that they would be a bad elim, but that one might ..pretend? to be a bad elim to make people think that they...aren't? the elim?

I...I can't trust anything

The only incentive the elims have for not killing Ventyl given our plan is that they could force us to waste a lynch killing them. However, if we do not go with the plan, I'm of the opinion that we should lynch Ventyl now. Thus, we will end up lynching Ventyl in any circumstance where they do not die. There is no capacity for misdirect [that I can see, please inform me of any fallacies of logic]. 

EDIT: I forgot to check in with my fellow players about the viability of the plan. Players, your thoughts on holding off on a Ventyl lynch to see if the elims kill them for having a role and if they don't, lynch Ventyl.

Edited July 2, 2020 by Gears
Forgot

[Mat he/him]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I see things like this - which do seem logical - and my mind immediately sees that as suspicious because it feels like a way to misdirect

On the other hand I still want to think Ventyl is an elim because people seem to have arguments as to why they aren't that base around their strategy not being good for an elim- Not saying that they would be a bad elim, but that one might ..pretend? to be a bad elim to make people think that they...aren't? the elim?

I...I can't trust anything

Precisely. Hence my signature.

You just need to do your best to pick out the truth, and vote on who you personally find suspicious- maybe work with others you trust, depending on the circumstances, (Do you have a doc to communicate with people?) and that will create the best results.

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Imagine someone claims Dustbringer. Then someone else comes out and counter-claims Dustbringer. Assuming there's only one of each role, lynching one of them tells us with near certainty what the other's alignment is. If the first one is village, the second one is elim or vice versa.

THANK YOU I FINALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT THE HECK STRIKER WAS TALKING ABOUT.

2 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Second, I find it very odd that you were fine with not having all the information. Asking for clarification when you don't understand someone's train of thought is always a good idea. Makes me feel like you already know he's a villager, so you just accepted the first explanation you got, then went back to it after you saw an opening to vote.

I don't know what my thought process was, but I think I thought that if I buddied up with someone who had just voted on me it might look bad, and I certainly don't want to be mislynched. It's unfortunate, because so far this game has had a stereotype of me not thinking through what I post before I do it, and getting elim read for it. Kynedath's post on me is the most reasonable read I've seen all cycle pertaining to me.  

[Magestar he/him]

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

Hey, I've learnt that I should never dismiss my paranoid self.

Seriously though, why would he ask that question? Sure seems specific, doesn't it? 

I mean, it was weird.  Your response was just also weird. 

47 minutes ago, Gears said:

Also thinks role analysis is alignment indicative, which I still don't understand. Someone, please explain how that is the case. Null read.

I might have said this before, but for me it's because role analysis such as yours is a good way to look like you're contributing while also playing it extremely safe.  It's a good way for Elims to hide.  This isn't always the case, and it's not something to put all your bets on either. But last game I was in I was suspicious of Xino for doing the same thing and they flipped Elim.  And it's not necessarily bad reasoning for C1.   

Gears' posts are kind of odd to me.  Is this their first game?

The TJ lynch is certainly moving along.  @Straw, could I get a vote count?  I think TJ is as good an option as anyone at this point.  I'd also consider Matrim.  I'd rather not lynch Gears yet if this is their first game.

@StrikerEZ I keep wanting to try and extend my posts to over 200 words. 

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Magestar said:

Gears' posts are kind of odd to me.  Is this their first game?

Second, but his first was the vanilla QF.

[Gears]

6 minutes ago, Magestar said:

I might have said this before, but for me it's because role analysis such as yours is a good way to look like you're contributing while also playing it extremely safe.  It's a good way for Elims to hide.  This isn't always the case, and it's not something to put all your bets on either. But last game I was in I was suspicious of Xino for doing the same thing and they flipped Elim.  And it's not necessarily bad reasoning for C1. 

Ah. Thank you for the information. I would like to inform you and the general populace that my role was probably a one-off that only happened because I had copious quantities of free time pre-game.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Oh my, that’s a lot I missed. I am kinda busy today, but I used that as an Elim excuse far too much in the QF, so I’ll try to post an analysis post tonight.

I don’t really see TJ’s suspicion of me AI. It’s a flimsy piece of reasoning, but at least there is reasoning, unlike most early votes I’ve seen. I kinda get what he meant, too, although I hope me being on mobile and bad at math doesn’t get me lynched... if anything, I’m weirded out by him taking his vote off, not doing it when I explained/gave a defense but removing it when people started getting suspicious.

(I also get weirded out when people flock to my defense for little reason... ah well. I can live with that )

Also Matrim, tinfoiling means being very paranoid in your suspicions, and not letting up on suspicion because someone’s heavily read as Village. It’s not as outlandish as random suspicions, but it’s generally suspicions disprovable by Occam’s Razor (I think that’s the right razor...). I tend to tinfoil, as does TJ and a few others like Silber, and newer players who can’t gut read as easily.

[Straw he/him]

35 minutes ago, Magestar said:

The TJ lynch is certainly moving along.  @Straw, could I get a vote count?  I think TJ is as good an option as anyone at this point.  I'd also consider Matrim.  I'd rather not lynch Gears yet if this is their first game.

I think this is correct:

TJ Shade (4): Elbereth, Eternum, Magestar, Ventyl
Gears (2): Orlok Tsubodai, StrikerEZ
StrikerEZ (2): Gears, Sart
Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Araris Valerian

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

Right, when I was an elim with Ventyl in the MR, they claimed very early to people in PMs. Based on that, I'm seeing this as kind of an elim play here. Ventyl. 

Can someone explain the Shade lynch?

[Ashbringer he/him]

TJ thought me saying there were “24(ish)” players when there are, in fact, exactly 24 players was suspicious. Which I kinda understand. Everyone else... not so much.

[Gears]

2 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Right, when I was an elim with Ventyl in the MR, they claimed very early to people in PMs. Based on that, I'm seeing this as kind of an elim play here. Ventyl. 

Can someone explain the Shade lynch?

The current plan [which no one has verified, please do so at your earliest convenience] is to hold off on lynching Ventyl in case they are actually honest about having a role and seeing if the elims kill them. If the elims don't kill Ventyl in 1-2 cycles [we need to decide this], we will lynch Ventyl. For now, we are attempting to slaughter other suspicions, because there is no scenario where Ventyl lives [we lynch today, elims kill later, or we lynch later]. From what I can tell, the TJ Shade lynch is based off of their attack on Ashbringer's usage of the affix "-ish" after the exact number of players and subsequent retraction after they took suspicion.

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

...okay, I can see that. Ventyl. The one issue I can see is if they ARE an elim Radiant, and the elim team's trying to save him here to get as many actions out of him as possible. Might revote later.

I can see TJ's point there. It makes me feel a little off about Ash. I don't support the TJ lynch here.

What's up with Striker?

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

3 minutes ago, Gears said:

The current plan [which no one has verified, please do so at your earliest convenience] is to hold off on lynching Ventyl in case they are actually honest about having a role and seeing if the elims kill them. If the elims don't kill Ventyl in 1-2 cycles [we need to decide this], we will lynch Ventyl. For now, we are attempting to slaughter other suspicions, because there is no scenario where Ventyl lives [we lynch today, elims kill later, or we lynch later]. From what I can tell, the TJ Shade lynch is based off of their attack on Ashbringer's usage of the affix "-ish" after the exact number of players and subsequent retraction after they took suspicion.

I don’t know how I should feel about this post. But at least my post has done it’s job. I’ve generated a lot of discussion! Though, it’s also backfired a little bit, because now I’m going to die soon... Come on guys, I just want to live for a whole game for once!