Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 Valas Etteax, formerly known as Valas Ananor before she married, was on the path to Urithiru. Not as a refugee as the others in the group might assume, but as some one to protect them. Albeit she couldn’t summon her Blade, as she knew there were men and women of the Diagram among this particular group. If this had been any other group, she would be clad in Plate right now, watching out for any incoming Singers or Listeners that might want to attack them. But thankfully, they’d already secured the Plains. The only real threats out here were highstorms, chasmfiends, and Diagramist.
Ashbringer he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 (edited) Seeing as that’s exactly what Elim!Ventyl did to me D1 of LG66, yes, yes it does. He may have a point, however: many surges, mainly Gravitation, need you have some idea of who’s using what surges to be of any use. I still wouldn’t recommend claiming, especially D1, but, for example, a Village Windrunner would be much more potent when he could use Gravitation on the Dustbringer. Edit: triple ninja’d. Storm it. Don’t have time to edit this, however. Edited July 1, 2020 by Ashbringer
Elbereth she/her Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 3 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: What's so bad about alignment scans? I'm personally a big fan of them. *flashbacks to AG6* Hmm, this is true, and something I haven't really thought about before. I know that there is a valid reason to do poke votes...I just can't remember what it is. My point is that poke votes aren't meant to just be taken off as soon as the person gets on and says something. They should stay on the poked player for as long as it takes them to convince you to take it off. Or you can decide to just not take them off. Though, I will agree that voting based on discussion is always the superior way to vote, and at this point we have more than enough (I think) to start making reads and vote on players. Anyway, I'm interested to see why Gears really thinks that people can't be so certain that when the roleblock/redirect someone and results in something that seems like they hit an elim, they should be cautious. Like, yes, you should always be cautious when dealing with that kind of thing. But the odds of the effects not being caused by your actions are really really slim. Seems like it could be a way to cover the elims in case that happens to them, like he's trying to sow paranoia in our minds and stuff. I really like all the role analysis he's been doing so far, but all of that is basically completely NAI as far as I can tell. I'm gonna go ahead and put a vote on Gears because I want to see what he has to say about this. 1. No. 2. Are you sure there’s a good reason for them? Or is it just that it’s much easier to vote on someone who’s not here yet than someone who’s already around and might argue back? 3. So what you’re saying then is that poke votes aren’t really about whether someone’s posted, they’re just “vote a person basically at random and don’t take your vote off until you’re satisfied” which is, notably, exactly what I do. I just do it within the pool of people already here because that makes way more discussion because the person is already around to respond and talk! 4. Only sort of agreed here - I think it’s more likely than Gears might think, but I will note that like 7/10 surges are roleblocks or redirects of some sort. Which. Is a lot. So there’s more uncertainty this game than usual.
Mat he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 6 minutes ago, Elbereth said: *squints* I mean. I said people shouldn’t claim but oookay. I... struggle to see this from an elim perspective at the moment, anyone else have thoughts there? Ventyl. Matrim for that latest post - not because it’s wrong, Ventyl could be doing a very clever elim play right now, but. It seems much more likely to be village, and that warning feels a bit like damage control from an elim trying to prevent a trust circle from happening / keep Ventyl from looking quite as good as he does now. That's an interesting perspective, as I put the warning hoping to avoid people incorrectly reading the post as what you read it as. Backfire. I don't necessarily think Ventyl is an elim for saying that- if I did my vote would be on him, instead of nonexistent- but I'm just warning against roleclaiming in PM's, because, like Ash, I did in the last LG to an elim. The elim happened to be Ventyl, also
Elbereth she/her Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 Straw put my role breakdown in the quicklinks! I’m honored. 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: That's an interesting perspective, as I put the warning hoping to avoid people incorrectly reading the post as what you read it as. Backfire. I don't necessarily think Ventyl is an elim for saying that- if I did my vote would be on him, instead of nonexistent- but I'm just warning against roleclaiming in PM's, because, like Ash, I did in the last LG to an elim. The elim happened to be Ventyl, also Hm. Not sure what I think about that yet. Do you think that post made him more likely to be village or evil?
Gears Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: Anyway, I'm interested to see why Gears really thinks that people can't be so certain that when the roleblock/redirect someone and results in something that seems like they hit an elim, they should be cautious. Like, yes, you should always be cautious when dealing with that kind of thing. But the odds of the effects not being caused by your actions are really really slim. Seems like it could be a way to cover the elims in case that happens to them, like he's trying to sow paranoia in our minds and stuff. I really like all the role analysis he's been doing so far, but all of that is basically completely NAI as far as I can tell. I'm gonna go ahead and put a vote on Gears because I want to see what he has to say about this. There are many manipulating Surges. The margin of error is incredibly high. I am not saying that the information gained by one's roleblock/redirect should be rejected on principle, merely taken with a healthy dose of salt. If one wishes to act upon such indications, be aware that the information will not always be accurate.
Mat he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Elbereth said: Do you think that post made him more likely to be village or evil? I have a tendency to read Ventyl as elim because I'm not accustomed to his trolly playstyle, so I don't know atm.
Ookla-son-son-Ventyl Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 27 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: Seeing as that’s exactly what Elim!Ventyl did to me D1 of LG66, yes, yes it does. He may have a point, however: many surges, mainly Gravitation, need you have some idea of who’s using what surges to be of any use. I still wouldn’t recommend claiming, especially D1, but, for example, a Village Windrunner would be much more potent when he could use Gravitation on the Dustbringer. Edit: triple ninja’d. Storm it. Don’t have time to edit this, however. hehe... 21 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: That's an interesting perspective, as I put the warning hoping to avoid people incorrectly reading the post as what you read it as. Backfire. I don't necessarily think Ventyl is an elim for saying that- if I did my vote would be on him, instead of nonexistent- but I'm just warning against roleclaiming in PM's, because, like Ash, I did in the last LG to an elim. The elim happened to be Ventyl, also hehe... (cont.) 16 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: I have a tendency to read Ventyl as elim because I'm not accustomed to his trolly playstyle, so I don't know atm. I’ll take you calling my playstyle “trolly” as a compliment. 2
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 plz can we not rehash d1 lynch arguments again? clearly no reason not to vote asap. no lynch minimum so someone will die. may as well see who you want to engage with, right? i think el is trying too hard. whether overexcited villager or elim not sure. gears rubbing me the wrong way. always sus of analysis posts written pregame. way to easy to colour opinions without giving away alignment info. gears. no hard feelings, but would also be willing to lynch el.
Gears Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said: plz can we not rehash d1 lynch arguments again? clearly no reason not to vote asap. no lynch minimum so someone will die. may as well see who you want to engage with, right? i think el is trying too hard. whether overexcited villager or elim not sure. gears rubbing me the wrong way. always sus of analysis posts written pregame. way to easy to colour opinions without giving away alignment info. gears. no hard feelings, but would also be willing to lynch el. Is it taboo to pre-write game analysis? If so, my apologies. I'm not really sure how to defend myself at the moment, as Striker cited my distaste for trust and you cited my pre-game analysis, both of which are not things I can easily rectify. I would also be amenable to lynching El.
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gears said: Is it taboo to pre-write game analysis? If so, my apologies. I'm not really sure how to defend myself at the moment, as Striker cited my distaste for trust and you cited my pre-game analysis, both of which are not things I can easily rectify. I would also be amenable to lynching El. no but less useful to village than post game start analysis. no vote, lol? why not...
Gears Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 Just now, Orlok Tsubodai said: no but less useful to village than post game start analysis. no vote, lol? why not... Because being perfectly amenable to lynching El is vastly different from actually pushing El's lynch. It has been 4 hours. Not everyone's posted. I want to wait and see. If El continues on this path of strange esoteric dark magicks, then I will vote. For now, I will reserve my vote for a later time.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Ventyl said: Also, I’m curious about @Araris Valerian’s vote on me. Considering I think pokes should really only be used to get people who haven’t posted to post something, I don’t see a reason for it, as I’ve already posted. I want to kill you, not get you to post. It's a Stab Vote (TM). 13
Orlok Tsubodai Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, Gears said: Because being perfectly amenable to lynching El is vastly different from actually pushing El's lynch. It has been 4 hours. Not everyone's posted. I want to wait and see. If El continues on this path of strange esoteric dark magicks, then I will vote. For now, I will reserve my vote for a later time. what value in waiting and seeing over posting and creating discussion? not like you can only vote once... 1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said: I want to kill you, not get you to post. It's a Stab Vote (TM). marry me. 5
Elbereth she/her Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 14 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: plz can we not rehash d1 lynch arguments again? clearly no reason not to vote asap. no lynch minimum so someone will die. may as well see who you want to engage with, right? i think el is trying too hard. whether overexcited villager or elim not sure. gears rubbing me the wrong way. always sus of analysis posts written pregame. way to easy to colour opinions without giving away alignment info. gears. no hard feelings, but would also be willing to lynch el. not clear to almost everyone in this thread at least no one is arguing about whether to lynch at all very very very overexcited villager - haven't been village in six months and i have missed this even more than expected (!!!). expect this level of activity / enthusiasm to continue for.... a while. also is not the whole thing about prewritten posts that they give no indication towards alignment? like sure analysis written after is more useful to the village but that is a meta argument against prewritten posts and not really indicative of gears either way. unless you think he would have chosen whether or not to post it based on his alignment? also, what do you think about matrim atm? 3 minutes ago, Gears said: Because being perfectly amenable to lynching El is vastly different from actually pushing El's lynch. It has been 4 hours. Not everyone's posted. I want to wait and see. If El continues on this path of strange esoteric dark magicks, then I will vote. For now, I will reserve my vote for a later time. Nothing will happen if you just wait and see though. Vote me! See what people say about it! Discussion is your friend, if you're village, and votes cause so much more discussion and so much more productive discussion than just sitting around waiting for things to happen. Just now, Araris Valerian said: I want to kill you, not get you to post. It's a Stab Vote (TM). You say it so much better in so many fewer words. 1
Lahilt he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 (edited) Lahilt needed to get to Urithiru, seemingly all of these other people were heading in that direction which was really convenient as these chasms were really malfacila to cross without bridges. Poke voting is not completely random for the Elims as they do know who is village and who is Elim. I am not saying that poke voting is the best option but we can get a little information from it later on. Also I think that some players do not really want to lynch a very active player in the first cycle. I will hold on to my vote for now because I am not sure where I want it to go. Targeting only players who post can give Elims opportunities to stay inactive or low active as a chance to blend in Edited July 1, 2020 by Lahilt
Gears Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 15 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said: what value in waiting and seeing over posting and creating discussion? not like you can only vote once... Your words are wise. 15 minutes ago, Elbereth said: Nothing will happen if you just wait and see though. Vote me! See what people say about it! Discussion is your friend, if you're village, and votes cause so much more discussion and so much more productive discussion than just sitting around waiting for things to happen. You have convinced me. Elbereth.
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 2 hours ago, Gears said: Misc. Thoughts: There is a bit of RNG in this game, if people submit more than one action. If you want your action to go through, you might want to submit two so the odds of that action being the one that vamooses drops from 100% to 50%. I believe I have accidentally both undervalued and overvalued Abrasion. As most of the actions that one would be targeted with are action manipulation, Abrasion does indirectly protect one's actions. However, as Division would almost certainly be boosted by Gravitation whilst Progression would not, you could be dooming yourself to a painful death to protect your actions. The only way to submit two actions is to squire or spend both stormlight charges at once, so it's not usually worth it to do so. Also, is there a reason you didn't mention Transformation? It seems unlikely that Gravitation would be used to ensure a kill unless there was a reason to believe the kill would be interfered with. Although I suppose an elim Windrunner might be assigned to the kill 2/3 nights in lieu of using other surges, so maybe Abrasion wouldn't help. The odds of being saved by Progression are pretty low unless you're a trusted villager though, so Abrasion is more likely to save you than hoping for Progression. 1 hour ago, Elbereth said: I agree there’s uncertainty in both cases, but I still think a redirect is much more informative. Would redirecting an action to someone who ended up dead be conclusive enough for you to claim the redirect, either in thread or in PM assuming they're open at the time? This could be what PM chains are supposed to be for, but unlike conclusive alignment scans, including an elim in a PM chain would give the redirected player enough warning to come up with an excuse.
Ashbringer he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 I feel like a scanner could just PM someone they scanned Village and forgo the whole chain thing. Might be a good Lightweaver strategy.
Gears Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 33 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: The only way to submit two actions is to squire or spend both stormlight charges at once, so it's not usually worth it to do so. Also, is there a reason you didn't mention Transformation? It seems unlikely that Gravitation would be used to ensure a kill unless there was a reason to believe the kill would be interfered with. Although I suppose an elim Windrunner might be assigned to the kill 2/3 nights in lieu of using other surges, so maybe Abrasion wouldn't help. The odds of being saved by Progression are pretty low unless you're a trusted villager though, so Abrasion is more likely to save you than hoping for Progression. I didn't mention Transformation because a Knight Radiant with Abrasion would have Division [Dustbringer] or Progression [Edgedancer]. I admit that your statement is indeed true, however I do think that the odds of a kill being used with Gravitation is higher than you estimate. Surely ensuring the kill gets to the appropriate target is important?
Devotary of Spontaneity Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 2 hours ago, StrikerEZ said: Hmm, this is true, and something I haven't really thought about before. I know that there is a valid reason to do poke votes...I just can't remember what it is. Even in this scenario, it's always better to assume that you are the direct reason for the lack of a kill, or I guess the choice of the kill. It would be way too much of a coincidence for someone to redirect a player's action and then the person they got redirected to dies. It's not 100% for sure damning evidence, but you can be pretty sure that you found the killer that way. I guess you would have to consider the fact that the redirected player might just be a village Dustbringer/Skybreaker, but you can wait to decide to see if that's the case after you confront the person you redirected and hear what they have to say for themselves. Poke votes can be a good jumping off point for real votes to put significant pressure on someone, but a train based on a poke can be easily derailed. In a game with roles though, it would hopefully be harder for an elim to redirect a train off a teammate without anyone noticing. Would you still kill someone who, when asked why their target ended up dead, claimed village Division? It would probably be easy to tell if they were lying, since there would presumably have been at least two kills on a cycle where a villager killed someone and even if that was the case the real Divider could counterclaim as applicable. It would be a pretty heavy cost to out a redirecter and a killer to catch an elim, but maybe PMs could help with that. 33 minutes ago, Ashbringer said: I feel like a scanner could just PM someone they scanned Village and forgo the whole chain thing. Might be a good Lightweaver strategy. An alignment scanner can do that, but a redirecter/roleblocker can't unless they're an Elsecaller who scanned and then later redirected. 4 minutes ago, Gears said: I didn't mention Transformation because a Knight Radiant with Abrasion would have Division [Dustbringer] or Progression [Edgedancer]. I admit that your statement is indeed true, however I do think that the odds of a kill being used with Gravitation is higher than you estimate. Surely ensuring the kill gets to the appropriate target is important? In your ranking surges by type post, you didn't mention Transformation, which is what I was referring to. I was thinking the odds of the elim kill being used with Gravitation are at most 5/6, with an elim Windrunner and an elim squire with a 50% chance of getting Gravitation. The odds of Abrasion saving you would be at least 1/6, while the odds of being saved with Progression are lower than that. It is of course possible that the elims have multiple Radiants with Gravitation, but I don't think that's incredibly likely since the other order with that surge are Skybreakers.
Gears Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: In your ranking surges by type post, you didn't mention Transformation, which is what I was referring to. I was thinking the odds of the elim kill being used with Gravitation are at most 5/6, with an elim Windrunner and an elim squire with a 50% chance of getting Gravitation. The odds of Abrasion saving you would be at least 1/6, while the odds of being saved with Progression are lower than that. It is of course possible that the elims have multiple Radiants with Gravitation, but I don't think that's incredibly likely since the other order with that surge are Skybreakers. Ah. Transformation is the only member of its set [scans] and thus would not be ranked. I concede the point concerning Abrasion, as it was simply an idle thought.
StrikerEZ he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said: Would you still kill someone who, when asked why their target ended up dead, claimed village Division? It would probably be easy to tell if they were lying, since there would presumably have been at least two kills on a cycle where a villager killed someone and even if that was the case the real Divider could counterclaim as applicable. It would be a pretty heavy cost to out a redirecter and a killer to catch an elim, but maybe PMs could help with that. Hmm...I hadn’t thought about that. My thought process was more focused on the player doing the redirecting, not the player getting redirected. If the redirecter claims (whether publicly or anonymously) that the redirected player must be an elim and no one counter claims (whether publicly or anonymously), I think it would be fairly safe to assume that the redirected player is actually a villager at that point. Obviously, if they claim village Dustbringer and another player claims that as well, we have to decide which claim to believe. In that case, the elims are highly unlikely to ever be the counterclaim as that will just result in the “fake” being revealed as not elim and result in the elim getting lynched for it. I guess they could play some IKYK games, but in most cases we should always lynch the player who makes a counterclaim if the first player turns out to not be an elim. Edited July 1, 2020 by StrikerEZ
Mat he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said: In that case, the elims are highly unlikely to ever be the counterclaim as that will just result in the “fake” being revealed as not elim and result in the elim getting lynched for it. I guess they could play some IKYK games, but in most cases we should always lynch the player who makes a counterclaim if the first player turns out to not be an elim. I may be wrong, but I think this contradicts itself. "The elims are highly unlikely to ever be the counterclaim" to "we should always lynch the player who makes a counterclaim". Can you explain my confusion?
Araris Valerian he/him Posted July 1, 2020 Posted July 1, 2020 @Matrim's Dice You missed the last bit of Striker's post: 2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said: but in most cases we should always lynch the player who makes a counterclaim if the first player turns out to not be an elim. Basically if there is a counterclaim that is proven false, there is a fairly obvious lynch that should follow.
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