Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[Stick.]

I do think Alpha is village tho  

[The Wandering Wizard]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

I do think Alpha is village tho  

I don't know though, the feeling is strong and persistent

[Stick.]

Very sad for us if all the tied players are village U_U

[The Wandering Wizard]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

Very sad for us if all the tied players are village U_U

>>

[Mat]

Time!

[Mat]

LG93: Night One: Dissension

Not long since they went on the water 

The paranoia took right over

Five were proposed, some tried to barter–

Star Guy sunk down low.

Sart was removed! He was an Expeditioner!

Night One has begun! It will end in about 24 hours, on Thursday, March 30th, at 8am PDT.

Vote Count:

• Ashbringer (2): xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity
• _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
• Sart (2): Archer, _Stick_
• TheAlpha929 (2): Telrao, The Wandering Wizard
• |TJ| (2): Sart, Araris Valerian
• Archer (1): TheAlpha929
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Kasimir

Take note of the following:

• A reminder that you can call on the services of our IM, @StrikerEZ, for any concerns you may have during the game.
• Don't forget to submit any actions or PM requests!
• There is an inactivity filter in play, of two turns. Failure to post for the duration of N1 and D2 will result in removal or replacement.
• The rules doc can be found here.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Tekkin
2. @Archer - Ene Seattle
3. @_Stick_ - Stick
4. @TheAlpha929 - Kaust Joshe
5. @Araris Valerian - rather lost
6. @Kasimir - Keshek
7. @Telrao - Mewlnir
8. @Ashbringer - AraRaash
9. @The Wandering Wizard - Raven Beak
10. @xinoehp512
11. @JNV - Jack
12. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Ykld, Rhwm, and Vrodn
13. @|TJ| - Tark
14. Sart - Star Guy - Expeditioner

 

[Stick.]

Of course 

[|TJ|]

I've rarely seen a D1 like this, wth...

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Sart! Noooo

This makes me more suspicious of Archer.

[The Wandering Wizard]

Maybe I should have stayed >>

[Stick.]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I've rarely seen a D1 like this, wth...

clearly we are too powerful when there’s no threat of vote manipulation 

[Araris Valerian]

My PM is going to a porch bro, in the interests of preventing redundancy.

[Stick.]

Here’s where I stand atm:

Spoiler

 

TKN - good

Archer - bad

Stick - good

Alpha - good

Araris - good

Kas - good

Telrao - bad

Ash - bad

Wiz - good

Xino - good

JNV - bad

Devo - bad

TJ - good

 

Edit:

despite how disorganised our D1 was, everybody but JNV voted so that’s nice 

Edited March 29, 2023 by _Stick_

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

I agree with that assessment for the most part 

[Archer]

Ene Seattle had been blindsided before. By Cupid's arrow, on a rainy night many years prior. But the Crew's accusations came even further out of the blue. The ocean blue.
Her eyes welled up with tears. She looked through the watery barrier. She was drowning.
A hand grabbed her leg. Bubbles escaped her ruby lips as she was pulled deeper. Somehow she knew the hand belonged to the man she had killed.
Star Guy's face leered up at her. How were they sinking so quickly?
"You're Sleepless, Ene Seattle."
Her vision dimmed.
"WAKE UP."
*

I see I was suspected! And then Kas walked away from it for a vanity vote with no explanation. That's not a great way to make your dreams come true, my man. 

13 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Sart! Noooo

Can you walk me through your thought process here? What's behind this reaction? 

4 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Here’s where I stand atm:

  Hide contents

 

TKN - good

Archer - bad

Stick - good

Alpha - good

Araris - good

Kas - good

Telrao - bad

Ash - bad

Wiz - good

Xino - good

JNV - bad

Devo - bad

TJ - good

 

 

I see you cleared everyone involved in the tie (except Ash). Plus Wiz for helping the tie along. And Kas because you like Pokemon. And yourself. 

Making TKN and Xino the less obvious clears there. TKN because of the read you did of them. And Xino also got deep dove into. 

This is a very logically consistent list. 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

Can you walk me through your thought process here? What's behind this reaction? 

I get sad when people die 

Edited March 29, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Stick.]

20 minutes ago, Archer said:

I see you cleared everyone involved in the tie (except Ash). Plus Wiz for helping the tie along. And Kas because you like Pokemon. And yourself. 

Making TKN and Xino the less obvious clears there. TKN because of the read you did of them. And Xino also got deep dove into. 

This is a very logically consistent list. 

Oh. I actually just looked at the player list and wrote down my intuitive read on each player. But this makes me look a lot smarter yes. 

[Ashbringer]

2 vote maximum? This really does feel like LG91 

Should be back now. Idk if me roleblocking someone indicates much for my alignment though.

[Kasimir]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Sart was removed! He was an Expeditioner!

>>

ffs.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

I see I was suspected! And then Kas walked away from it for a vanity vote with no explanation. That's not a great way to make your dreams come true, my man. 

Are you telling me my dream of finding a Sleepless and killing them will come true if I vote you? :eyes:

Funny enough, my wanting to vote you becomes less appealing when Alpha switches off to you at the last minute for no apparent reason I'm distrustful of that late switch given Alpha's constant vote instability and now flat out mention that reason is unlikely to be forthcoming, and opening game credit can only go so far before it feels like a player is flat out exploiting the read.

I'm gonna be making a PM with @|TJ|, for the sake of clarity.

This guy needs to be relentlessly shamed about finding Gesomon cute >:(

Edited March 29, 2023 by Kasimir
Deleted extra space

[JNV]

So when I say I can be more active life immediately slams me with a million things and I cant get on but maybe if I lament my inactivity life will clear up maybe perhaps heres hoping

Anyway five way tie implies low heat round for evil or they were down to sacrifice or the votes slipped on evil in the tie at the last second the way things look going through page by page Ashberinger immediately gets a pileon then retaliatory flopping onto xinoehp then scattered panic ok so Alphas whole 'Im doing what I want and it makes no sense but trust me bro I have a reason that I cant tell you right now but just trust me' thing is kinda hmm but like nonsensical as evil like playing up new player confusion but also what is kinda aggravating is they said the reason they couldnt explain was becasue they were busy and then its like 'no I cant tell you until the games over' like what is that turnabout Ashbringers status as just floating in the lead without meaningful defense means either they arent evil or theyre lying about being Lopen I lean towards the first one just cause its an unnecessary lie as evil thats hard to commit to if survived Novels hitting me with the same old aura of evil but honestly if they ever dont do that I think thats a red flag  something about Wizards misvote and quick swap is hitting me oddly dont know why it might be the all caps thats always a thing so yeah thats my brain right now honestly just a blob Ill be back later bye bye

[Stick.]

32 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

2 vote maximum? This really does feel like LG91 

Should be back now. Idk if me roleblocking someone indicates much for my alignment though.

If I were evil I would just not put a kill in today just so that whoever you claim to roleblock gets exe'd the next turn - this would also incriminate you if you are village. That's two mixes easy. The reason I am saying this is so that the elims don't do it >:) 

18 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Funny enough, my wanting to vote you becomes less appealing when Alpha switches off to you at the last minute for no apparent reason I'm distrustful of that late switch given Alpha's constant vote instability and now flat out mention that reason is unlikely to be forthcoming, and opening game credit can only go so far before it feels like a player is flat out exploiting the read.

You're implying that:

1. e!Alpha first says something vague and suspicious like 'I have secret reasons for this vote that I decided 4 pages ago' when they don't actually have a reason but just really want to vote there - maybe they didn't consult the doc before doing this and that's fair enough cuz they're new to this

2. e!Alpha's teammates see that post and go 'yeah just say you'll explain it later' instead of helping him come up with plausible justifications

3. Later when someone asks for the explanation, e!Alpha just goes 'ask me after the game' and their teammates say well done

I have trouble seeing an elim team that doesn't try to coach e!Alpha through this. Maybe they were all consistently absent from the doc.

24 minutes ago, JNV said:

So when I say I can be more active life immediately slams me with a million things and I cant get on but maybe if I lament my inactivity life will clear up maybe perhaps heres hoping

Anyway five way tie implies low heat round for evil or they were down to sacrifice or the votes slipped on evil in the tie at the last second the way things look going through page by page Ashberinger immediately gets a pileon then retaliatory flopping onto xinoehp then scattered panic ok so Alphas whole 'Im doing what I want and it makes no sense but trust me bro I have a reason that I cant tell you right now but just trust me' thing is kinda hmm but like nonsensical as evil like playing up new player confusion but also what is kinda aggravating is they said the reason they couldnt explain was becasue they were busy and then its like 'no I cant tell you until the games over' like what is that turnabout Ashbringers status as just floating in the lead without meaningful defense means either they arent evil or theyre lying about being Lopen I lean towards the first one just cause its an unnecessary lie as evil thats hard to commit to if survived Novels hitting me with the same old aura of evil but honestly if they ever dont do that I think thats a red flag  something about Wizards misvote and quick swap is hitting me oddly dont know why it might be the all caps thats always a thing so yeah thats my brain right now honestly just a blob Ill be back later bye bye

Who would you have voted for if you were on at EoD?

[Kasimir]

Thoughts:

-Good look for TJ that Sart has flipped Village. Odd take, but my rationale is that TJ passed up a clear chance to vote Sart in favour of gerrymandering a vote for Ash. I wasn't the only one who commented on it - that grounded Sart's own vote for TJ. TJ going onto Ash is a bit weird in a TJ/Ash E/E world unless you think TJ was trying to employ train explosion tactics. But then again, the train had just dissolved! So unclear to me why E!TJ goes onto E!Ash. In light of that, I feel more confident in ascribing TJ a 

-

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

You're implying that:

1. e!Alpha first says something vague and suspicious like 'I have secret reasons for this vote that I decided 4 pages ago' when they don't actually have a reason but just really want to vote there - maybe they didn't consult the doc before doing this and that's fair enough cuz they're new to this

2. e!Alpha's teammates see that post and go 'yeah just say you'll explain it later' instead of helping him come up with plausible justifications

3. Later when someone asks for the explanation, e!Alpha just goes 'ask me after the game' and their teammates say well done

I have trouble seeing an elim team that doesn't try to coach e!Alpha through this. Maybe they were all consistently absent from the doc.

Tbvh, my line of thought assumes that E!Alpha plays like a loose cannon. Which I think is plausible enough, at least when trying to decide how cool I feel with joining that late vote switch. He's reminiscent of MR56 Thaid and that doesn't inspire very much trust. The 'secret reasons' reads to me like a new player trying to FAFO and having difficulty generating reasons tbh, so hiding it behind a mindgames smokescreen.

My rejoinder to 3 is that the team wargames responses but notices that Alpha is passing well in the FNG tier and decides not to mess with it. Possibly Alpha does in fact have responses for if he encounters serious pressure, but there was no real Alpha appetite last cycle anyway. IDK how much weight I'd ascribe to it, but chaosplay always loses trust from me because it feels like a playstyle deliberately designed to make you difficult to read, so why should I be confident you are Village? I'd say his read has decayed functionally to somewhere in the category.

-My difficulties with Devo is I read her first post as being a tad more V!Devo and her second post feels a bit more crafted in the way E!Devo guides/restricts her votes. This results in read decay, probably  for the moment.

-In the E!Ash world, the Elims would've: A. gambled on a lot of ties, and B. been fine with a last minute switch onto Ash/off. Ash didn't self-pres - can anyone here confirm whether Ash was on at EoD to save himself if need be? I don't recall seeing him when I logged out. B IMO indicates at least one Elim with the potential to control things, which looks to me like it has to be in <Wiz, Stick.> Stick is more likely in explaining why 'Dingo mode' triggered, but I'm not sure how convinced I am of an E!Ash world at this juncture, and Ash seems to think he'll give us more content. The other simpler explanation IMO is of course, that Ash is Village and so the Elims didn't particularly care. This also makes sense of why the Ash lead train barely budged for most of the cycle. Can't work out which I think is more likely without more sleep.

-FWIW I still have Stick in but can't deny I feel as though I've suffered light reads decay here after the whole Wiz-Ash-Sart dancearound, and Sart's flip.

-I'll do pathwalking at some stage and offer my reads prior to EoN. But also have more Digimon episodes to watch so /shrug

-Probably would like a PM with @_Stick_ for interests of avoiding too much thread overflow so Rushu if you have nothing better to do, would appreciate, but if you have better things to do, dwai. I just feel bad about my part in contributing to a 9 page D1 >>

-Yeah I could make it myself but my priorities mean it is important to make a PM to drag TJ for thinking  looks cute. Just wth TJ.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Kasimir

[Archer]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Tbvh, my line of thought assumes that E!Alpha plays like a loose cannon. Which I think is plausible enough, at least when trying to decide how cool I feel with joining that late vote switch. He's reminiscent of MR56 Thaid and that doesn't inspire very much trust. The 'secret reasons' reads to me like a new player trying to FAFO and having difficulty generating reasons tbh, so hiding it behind a mindgames smokescreen.te. Just wth TJ.

I've been wary of them for a similar reason, but I'm leaning village on them. I don't see why they'd burn their plausible deniability card by acknowledging they're taking advantage of their newness. It's also a risky playstyle in a game with a CS.

I'm going to assume Rushu can make PMs they aren't in, but they should check that before they do anything. 

Quote

-In the E!Ash world, the Elims would've: A. gambled on a lot of ties, and B. been fine with a last minute switch onto Ash/off. Ash didn't self-pres - can anyone here confirm whether Ash was on at EoD to save himself if need be? I don't recall seeing him when I logged out. B IMO indicates at least one Elim with the potential to control things, which looks to me like it has to be in <Wiz, Stick.> 

Wiz moved their vote to create an intentional tie near EoD. Imagine e!they're nervous about being the one to cast the tiebreaking vote that decides the round. This explains why they went for a massive tie instead of sitting on their Ash vote or switching to a more impactful wagon. But it has the impact of soft-clearing a bunch of players. Is that worth keeping your hands cleaner? I don't see that being a worthwhile outcome unless e!Ashbringer is a factor. If there's two elims who ended in the tie, that risk calculation points you towards switching from Ashbringer to casting a decisive third vote somewhere else. 

[Ashbringer]

29 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

If I were evil I would just not put a kill in today just so that whoever you claim to roleblock gets exe'd the next turn - this would also incriminate you if you are village. That's two mixes easy. The reason I am saying this is so that the elims don't do it >:) 

So you want the Elims to put in a kill tonight? 

Traditional issue with that plan is I normally have a 1/12 chance of blocking the Elim kill, vs a 3-4/12 chance of blocking an Elim in general. 

[Stick.]

 

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Tbvh, my line of thought assumes that E!Alpha plays like a loose cannon. Which I think is plausible enough, at least when trying to decide how cool I feel with joining that late vote switch. He's reminiscent of MR56 Thaid and that doesn't inspire very much trust. The 'secret reasons' reads to me like a new player trying to FAFO and having difficulty generating reasons tbh, so hiding it behind a mindgames smokescreen.

I agree that Alpha's playstyle is similar to Thaid's, except I don't really remember what Thaid was like as an elim. Chaotic villager for sure.

16 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm going to assume Rushu can make PMs they aren't in, but they should check that before they do anything. 

They can. 

14 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

So you want the Elims to put in a kill tonight? 

Traditional issue with that plan is I normally have a 1/12 chance of blocking the Elim kill, vs a 3-4/12 chance of blocking an Elim in general

tbh yeah that plan works better for e!you but after the village flip you'd have to say the elims framed you or else you get exe'd. 

Distro if v!Ash: Maybe v!Lopen+v!Huio+v!Cord = e!Rysn+e!Rushu+e!Vanilla?