Archer

Ink and Embers Just like on HGTV! Which I think stands for High guards, tonight vote TwinStorm plz

For example, Alvron deserves far more performative criticism for his D1 EOD. Bad, Avron, bad I'd exe Mat today Mat

Vote Count: Archer (0): No one, everyone loves him Ink and Embers (5): Araris "The Bear" Valerian, Asriel, Kal Pal, Matress Dice, Wahahrheiritswäckhteor None of the other votes really matter, we know where this is headed Jo, super important, really complicated question: Mystfall Be careful out there, folks are stealing role claims left and right

You got me, I used my shadow GM powers to find out how many Highguards there are

There's generally two types of elim voting D1. First is reactive votes. If an elim might be voted off, they make counter-wagons to kill someone else. Second option is low-profile votes. Some votes catch more flack than others. Being a tie breaker, being the second voter, moving your vote late, being part of a wagon that leads to a villager flip etc. Elims avoid those positions if they can, and instead find side-wagons or spread their votes out. See the previous MR for an example of no elims voting D1 because they didn't need to. With no pressure to protect anyone, I accuse you of camping on Illwei. I was saying if Asriel was an elim, the elims would coach them to act differently than they did. So I don't think they're an elim. Grub

Day One Vote Count Snapshots My gut says it was a quiet EOD because TUC and Mint are villagers. (I think it's surprising to see an unprompted 6 vote wagon in a game, but attribute that to the high player count.) If Myst is evil, obviously that implicates the people who made the Mint counter-wagon catch fire, but I'm not convinced of that either. I think we didn't have any accurate trains D1. So we look at the vanity voters D1 for elims who wanted to vote but didn't want to be part of the bad main wagons. Grub and Asriel are the two solo votes. But surely the elims advise Asriel, as the first voter on the Myst wagon, to stay put. So I'll point the finger at Grub here. Bad vote, Illwei was clearly innocent

Role Claiming as Reaction Test Analysis: I PMed everyone asking for their role. I’m not going to post the exact outcomes right now. FYI There are three instances where a role appears thrice: Palr, Highguard, and a third I won't disclose. Most people agreed to trade, but outright refusal was also a common (and valid) response. The people who hedged interest me. Coco, Stardust, and Asriel gave some version of “no, but I might in future.” To me, that’s the response of someone waiting to see if they’ll be peer pressured into roleclaiming, or buying time to better craft a fake-claim. My GM brain remembers none of this, but I believe you. Ink and Embers Would you convert Myst? Feels like a high profile target, unless you're convinced them calling for Depo was so crazy it can only have been village behaviour.

Elim/Village ratio. And yes, I was talking about the HG kill. If I were the HGs, knowing a Twin exe was likely, I'd have saved us the trouble. You're going to have to remind me why Ink Illwei wasn't sharing her role, at least not with me. After last game, absolutely the right call to take her out early, if a little rood That was probably Mavsetim, although it'd be a weird choice if so. I'd agree that the plan looks to have been to double Mavestim's power and target someone known to be negative based on the Depo results. Mechanics-wise, purpose is probably the wrong word. Cost is how I'd think of it. We get loyalty, but lose flexibility. It's still the better option than the other negative one, which forces us to spread our votes. That's my guess, although I'd like to hear someone claim to have been tapped by Mavsetim last night before assuming no one is already converted.

Because you trust Twin, or because you thought the plan was flawed? Can we all agree that if anyone calls for a Depo again this game, we'll exe them with extreme prejudice? If anyone's not willing to commit to that, please let us know now I'm a little surprised they didn't kill Twin. Protecting is village indicative to me. We all assume it's 0/3 or 1/2, but this is confirmation of that.

I was actually wondering if the highguards had attacked them in addition to the NK. I assume we'd be told that. I was actually under the impression that Illwei was a Highguard, but Council Secretary is so much worse Twin, did you increase your loyalty last Night? And did anyone have their loyalty decrease by two? * Coco, you're one of my outlier responses to my fishing expedition. You hedged, while most people gave a straightforward yes or no.

Closer than I'd like, but we all get +4 today. Let's play as normal, then consolidate. Thanks, Paramilitarians! Would Illwei also being Highguard killed be announced? Coco

Then there will be clues in my eulogy and a map on my gravestone I agree they're probably not e-e...

That has to have been discussed in the elim doc, right? I'm conf bias clearing Hopper It'd be funny if these are your last words If I die unceremoniously, everyone should talk to each other about what I've told them. You know who you are.

Sorry, should have clarified that that comment was meant as suspicion. I want that noted for the record, but still feel more confident in reading them village based on the Depo announcement. Another thing I want on the record is generally good vibes from Hopper and KeyFox for being distrustful of me. That's a sane reaction. I think elims are more likely to read me as being too well connected to exe and focus on other methods of dealing with me.

The issue isn't how public your reasons were, it was the reasons themselves. The elims probably won't win by Deposition today, but they will know who to target with their Loyalty manips and NKs to improve their position. Did anyone else get a PM that TwinStorm initiated? They were the only player who contacted me first and I want to check it wasn't reactive.

Analysis of TUC and Myst: I think TUC is village. TUC began D1 by announcing, “I'm 100% percent going to move to depose come nighttime unless PMs lead be to believe there's vastly more disloyal players than I expected” I read brinksmanship/declarative language as an intentional reaction test. Initiating a reaction test is usually village behaviour, since there’s risk to being controversial. As is sticking to your guns when pressured about it. * I think Myst is village. Their language so far has been more reserved than I expected. Them not bringing up their early death last game to discourage their early wagon felt out of character for them. N1, being impatient and taking on the public pressure of being the one to declare a Deposition is closer to their village profile. There no benefit for an elim to do that. * Twin claimed neutral loyalty, which was a reasonable choice for how they planned to use the role. This is not a productive line of inquiry.

I'd like to make it very clear that Noran is a cousin Fen keeps around to act as her body double, and not the Queen herself. Although sometimes they swap places so Fen can take a break from your yapping

nonsense I think it has to be red text. And maybe don't? There's a vote missing from the Mint train. Probably a Banker doing their thing

You should vote for me so I get to neutral loyalty via tie

Highkey. Let's ruin Jo's night I've been asked to post analysis, so here goes:

UnOfficial VC: (Ignore those cheap knock-offs) Mint (6): Myst, Hoid, Coco, Illwei, Mat, Mint Archer (3): Ink, Hopper, Keyfox TUC (3): Wahr, Whimsy, Araris TwinStorm (2): Mint, TUC Illwei (1): Grub Coco (1): Asriel Edit: As Mat later notes, swap Mint for TUC on the Mint train

VC: Mint (3): Myst, Hoid, TUC TwinStorm (2): Mint, Mat Alvron (1): Hopper Asriel (1): Illwei Illwei (1): Grub TUC (4): Wahr, Whimsy, Coco, Araris Coco (1): Asriel Archer (1): Ink If anyone else wants to share their role, you know where to find me!

VC up to the end of page 5 (3:30 July 23 Eastern) - includes missing vote by Whimsy: Mint (4): Myst, Hoid, TUC, Whimsy Myst (2): Mat, Mint Alvron (1): Hopper Asriel (1): Illwei Illwei (1): Grub TUC (1): Wahr Coco (1): Asriel Current VC: Mint (3): Myst, Hoid, TUC Myst (1): Mint TwinStorm (1): Mint Alvron (1): Hopper Asriel (1): Illwei Illwei (1): Grub TUC (2): Wahr, Whimsy Coco (1): Asriel Ink (1): Mat Please bold your votes so they aren't missed. Our illustrious GM would never make such mistakes, but your amateur notetaker might

VC: Mint (2): Myst, Hoid Myst (30000000): Asriel, Mat, Mint Alvron (1): Hopper Asriel (1): Illwei Illwei (1): Grub TUC (1): Wahr My vote counts are completely accurate. It's crazy to think otherwise.

VC: Mint (1): Myst Myst (30000): Asriel, Mat, Mint Araris (1): Hoid Asriel (1): Illwei Illwei (1): Grub Taking the generic action to increase your own loyalty is best done at Night, after Day effects have resolved eg. Tie resets your loyalty to zero.