Archer

you're right, this is no time for silliness! Now if you'll excuse me, I have some Very Serious RP to write. * Ouae watched Sakon inspect the weapons. He tossed one after another aside, muttering about them not being good enough. Editor's note, this is only funny if you remember that Sakon is the Quartermaster of Clock Town. Ouae pointed out a good looking one. "That sword seems alright!" "Hm, yes, this passes inspection." "i guess you could say a Quarter passed one."

There's a dichotomy of influence: Drake is willing to follow you, And Burnt would like to break you. I've probably tortured Mistfallen long enough. I'm realistically never voting them today. I could be talked into a TJ vote, but Araris is my preference. Edit: wahr, this is very inefficient

TJ is fair game, imo. If you're playing, you're a valid target. (Speak of the devil...) I can't get over Burnt trying to PM me. It felt villagery. Doc PMing their suspect list felt village as well. And I'm hard committed to v!Coco for saying pinch hitting is sus. I feel like Mistfallen has had a tonal shift this round, presumably because teammates are threatened? There's definitely been a change. I'm hesitant to throw away my previous village reads over it, since I think most of the time they're probably just village, but it's worth reevaluating once in a while. Edit: TJ fills out my theoretical elim teams quite nicely now, much obliged. Vote for me, you know you want to...

My gut is screaming Mistfallen after his last two posts. I need to pinpoint why RIP Gor the Goron

It's a long day, plenty of time to circle back. Still reading people's mail, huh?

Took me an embarrassing amount of time to understand what you mean. If we win the cycle, there's two elims in the dead doc. They need non confirmed villagers to also be in there to give them a chance of hiding. Got it. For this to make sense as a strategy, Divergent has to be evil. It's an E!hedge against losing the Loop, which is a far too early sign of weakness. now it's awkward that I didn't plan on PMing you. Here, you can have the joke part of the message: It's tempting to vote Araris to get out of paying rent... Might come back to it. Still bothers me how precisely they've played, which fits the mindset of someone who knows they need to maintain cover for a literal month. For now, I'll plus one Absolutely TJ Doc

I can't see them throwing in the towel now, if E!Divergent. They were committed to winning L1, so DGG (self kill) so soon L2 is against their operating philosophy. If v!Divergent and its a crazy preemptive kill with the goal of still winning L2, they're shockingly confident of their thread control and ability to avoid roleblocks of the NKs. I understand that we haven't discussed him recently as an exe option, but I'm really curious why he was the pick. Bunny last loop meant he was fairly wealthy. My guess would be villagers were v!reading him, meaning the elims didn't think he was a viable mix any more. Village cred to those who trusted Wonko recently. Looks like no PMs delivered, based on the OOA. I'll point you to Wonko's reaction to the Bunny Mask convo and their reaction to the Postman convo being very similar. Who'd you try to PM, @Burnt Spaghetti?

Guess that answers why Wonko was against blowing up the postman! Cancel the visit to the Powder Keg Shop D3... So why not shoot confirmed villager Wahr, who claimed vanilla? Educated guess about the postman and a desire to shut down PMs? Want to avoid giving them 50 rupees? You've got to think Ashbringer was a more subtle target if it has to do with the Burnt vote, although he wasn't very committed to it. I'd like to zero in on Araris (who keeps giving very safe/correct analysis sparsely) and Doc. "Janci Patterson", if PMs went through.

I fully expect it to hit two villagers, but I'm of the belief that we'll likely lose the cycle and want to end with a remaining pool with 2+ elim suspects in it. I wouldn't do it until D3, when the elims have already made their two kills, meaning they don't need to do anything N3. * Ouae whistled the tune to the Village People's third* best song (as covered by the Pet Shop Boys), and inadvertently made a navigational error. *Behind YMCA and In the Navy, ahead of Macho Man.

Best wishes to you both. This is more sensible, however, BM won't be equipped until tomorrow, so go wild tonight. I do think it's worth intentionally exploding Blast Mask and Postman N3, but not until then @Mistfallen Soldier. You're capped at 5 messages per round anyway, so we can coordinate once we see there's been two elim night kills.

smh I spent all day trying to kill Burnt and you were willing to do it, but hammered so I didn't have time to change back. Are we suuuuure Ash is village? Ultimately switched because I liked the voters on Divergent. Would have preferred to stay out of the blue mask pool, but it is what it is. Burnt talking about the dead doc had me second guessing her evilness If you're a confirmed villager with a Blast Mask, speak now or explode * Dead doc spy nonsense: yellow sentinel boomerang

ASHBRINGER WHY

Can I talk you into an Araris, Burnt team?

Despite what Aman wants, now it's not the time for RP Sheep time Burnt Divergent

While I appreciate you showing your work, your numbers are meaningless to me. I'll assume they plan to kill N1 and N2 to avoid disaster from hitting the delayed death or action block mechanics. I'll also assume they only plan on shooting those with under 20 rupees, so people like TJ might be shot for us.

If you pick someone to vote on, I'll be your +1 * @DrakeMarshall Side note on masks, I think it's best to keep them secret because the elims need to know who is safe to NK (non explosive). Anyone know how many they need to NK this cycle?

First you mix up my letters, then you forget to deliver half my messages. I'm disappointed, Mr. Postman! I sent you a video of Fozzie Bear singing the 2010 World Cup anthem by Shakira so I was unambiguous about my intent to Wonka Wonka. (Wonko, did you get a letter about Doc's succession planning? That was actually from me.)

They'd kill N2 in case their attack was blocked N3. What's the case for voting Stick? I'm more convinced of v!Mistfallen then them, but it's a pure POE shot for me. Still don't like the Divergent kill because of the blue mask math.

Don't love that Burnt's vote was just reenforcing the main train, rather than an original selection. Whatever happened to spreading votes around to get some mixed pressure during the day? I'm convinced Mistfallen is village. Most of it is mindmeld based. One thing I'll throw out there is their D2 PM to me (which contained the phrase "oi mate, gonna make this quick ya, don't wanna go over the word count" then was 250 words long) set me up as their handler. It was a classic I trust you, here's what my mask is, here's what I'm doing. And apparently they only sent it to me. Then also speculated on some info I'd shared in thread. I was already in their pocket, so I don't see the point of spending 3 rupees to solidify it. Counter hypothesis, he didn't know what outcome was coming and was simply trying to do prep work for the next loop. This seems convoluted. Based on Wonko's question earlier, I thought they might be the person to have it. Problem is an elim teammate could have gotten it instead and told them to fake claim it to cover them having gotten a red mask. Eh. I'm reading Wonko as village so I'll toss them in my pile of blue maskers that I don't want to touch this loop. Plus they did my puzzle, so they get style points.

You can only win one mask, but you can bid on as many as you have rupees to buy. So if you have 10, you can bid on two worth 5 each. Fierce Diety is impossible to obtain until Loop 5, if I remember the D1 discussion correctly.

I put in for PM and Donger, so it's your fault actually I couldn't have gone for the big ones D1 even if I'd known to do it; I was at 18. You can't spend money you earn that round, far as I know. Burnt, what I really like about Doc is their PM choices. Choosing to PM all their suspects makes a lot of sense. My TUM vote was partially out of principle for asking to be exed. I know it's usually villager behaviour, but I like to discourage it. You being a prolific question mark at this stage isn't a great look, so my votes stays unless you want to sell me on someone else!

L1D1, only Wonko and Mistfallen accumulated 10 extra rupees. (By the end of L1N1 Burnt, Divergent, maybe Coco, maybe Hael got to 10). [Discounting Wahr, TUO, and Ashbringer. Excluding confirmed Postman Doc.] Mistfallen has claimed the red Mask of Scents. Wonko likely got an unidentified red mask. Likely no one bought the Captain’s Hat, hence the silence. Of the blue masks, Coco claimed Bremen. Divergent claimed Don Gero. Doc had Postman’s Hat. The Bunny Hood is unclaimed. The elims could increase their odds of getting specific masks by stacking their votes and/or aiming for unpopular masks. Bremen and Don Gero would be their priorities, so giving themselves 40%/40%/0%/0% odds makes more sense than 20%/20%/20%/20%. Villager inactivity/incompetence likely increased their odds, but even if they had a 50% shot at two specific masks, they likely only got one. Odds of getting two were about 25%. So we can predict that there is, at most, one elim among Doc, Coco, Divergent, and Bunny-wearer. 50% of the time, they get no mask, so I’m inclined to leave this group alone. Likely three elims among: Araris TJ Honor’s Ghost/Stick Wonko Burnt Coder/Drake Hoid Slayer Mistfallen Hael (me) (My exe order is: Burnt, TJ, Stick, Araris, HS, Drake, Wonko, Hael, Mistfallen.) Edit: Reread my notes. HG had something I found villagery, so I'd move Stick closer to the trust side.

Ouae glowered at them. "What, is your esophagus blocked? Is something preventing you from eating right now? I'm insulted you'd question my cooking - I'm a published recipe columnist! Thankfully the mail is running again so I can send my work back to The Paper." "Eat. Up."

"Of course, dear! I'm so glad you trust me with your-" Ouae nearly fainted from shock. "Dubious friends deserve dubious food. Eat up." It's alignment indicative. I'll show you the math momentarily. Coco saying the quiet part out loud makes them indisputably village in my eyes. I've been trying not to meta game pinch hitting that way.

Well that's concerning. The only justification I can come up with is wanting to avoid revealing they're 20 rupees poorer, but that's a weak justification for uncooperative behaviour. Now that we know they wanted to win the cycle, and because I regularly threatened code shenanigans of dubious legality, we can assume it was a priority for them to have doc access. If the Bunny wearer claims, I'll give them a Gourmet Meat and Rice Bowl.