Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[The Unknown Ajah]

My PM is once again for sale.

[Ashbringer]

1 hour ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Not really, Kasimir has claimed Rysn, and TJ has claimed Rushu.

And Ash has claimed Lopen. Huio and Cord have been silent (as they should).

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Oh yeah thanks

[Kasimir]

10 hours ago, Elandera said:

Hello! I'm DMing a D&D game this afternoon, but I'll catch up on this game tonight. Anything specific I should know?

Lazy to source but will try to offer a summary of events that's as untainted by my reads as possible. Flips are marked.

D1:

• Persistent Ash train that sat for most of the cycle, initiated by Wiz as a poke vote. Slightly before/around midpoint, we had an Ash/Xino CW. Xino CW was also started by Wiz, who switched from Ash. 
• Decent to high volatility through the cycle, with vote switches from myself, Stick, TJ, Wiz, Telrao, Archer, and Alpha.
• FWIW I'm Vikemon.
• Ash claims Lopen. There was no counterclaim and the role is unique.
• Endgame situation: train dilution occurs. We go from an Ash/Araris/Sart train situation at 3/2/2 to Ash/Araris/Sart/TJ at 3/2/2/2 because Araris moves from a Telrao sidetrain (had maximum two voters) to TJ at about under an hour to EoD.
• At four minutes to EoD, Wiz switches his vote from Ash to Alpha, creating a five-way tie between Ash/Araris/Sart/TJ/Alpha.
• Sart is keelhauled!
• Summary post of D1 voting can be found here, if you want to accompany your readthrough with counts. (Don't have to look at my analysis when catching up.) 
   

N1:

• Archer acquires suspicion.
• Some distro discussion about what sort of world we are ending up with if Ash is Village, i.e. V!Lopen. General thought is maybe E!Rushu + E!Rysn + Regular.
• More player comments but I don't really want to summarise them here, and N1 is short.
• Archer and Stick flip. Stick was likely the NK, and Archer the Cord kill.

D2:

• In contrast to D1, extremely tepid cycle with lots of vote complacency. Only three players changed their votes, and two of them did so in self-pres: TJ and Xino. I changed my vote as well from Araris to Xino.
• Main trains were: Alpha/TJ/Xino - no real appetite for Ash.
• Under vote pressure, TJ claims Rushu. There was no counterclaim and the role is unique.
• I claim Rysn for Rysons. There was no counterclaim and the role is unique.

In retrospect, this is a very vote-centric summary but wcyd, I'm the votes guy >>

Edited April 2, 2023 by Kasimir
Replaced link that got broken due to merge

[Telrao]

Mewlnir slammed her small paws upon the galley bench. "Another expeditioner removed." She hissed, teeth glistening in the torchlight. Her claws scratched the bench slightly, revealing slits of lighter wood beneath the aged brown. "What are we to do, companions? What are we to say? The Hoardlings grow in power, as we grow weaker." She growled under her breath and snatched a jug of mead, dipping her head into it and lapping at the brown liquid. When she finished, she rested her paw on her sword again.

"There is hope, yet. But it flickers like a candle in a gale." Her eyes glittered a bright gold as she stared at her fellow adventurers, wondering who could be a traitor.

[Ashbringer]

Oh I didn't ask. Thought I did.

Kas, did you rolescan me N1 to verify, or did you scan someone else? Don't really care who else, but I'm curious.

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Kas, did you rolescan me N1 to verify, or did you scan someone else? Don't really care who else, but I'm curious.

I didn't scan you. You claiming Lopen under lethal pressure basically would've screamed Evil to the real Lopen and attracted a counterclaim, and it's a reasonable price to pay for a more or less confirmed Elim flip + 

My theory is that Cord is more or less  - not impossible but I think it's very hard to balance E!Cord even with V!Huio and V!Lopen so that's where I'm at now. My view is that my job is to find Cord and to ensure Cord is protected as much as I can arrange for it/manage it. It also knocks one player out of PoE for me which is nice.

I scanned another player. You know my views on outing a player's scan unnecessarily  

Edited to add:

Left that thought half-developed. Meant to add that in any world with V!Huio or an Elim who wants to pass as V!Huio, V!Lopen ccing an Elim who then gets flipped is basically the obvious protection target.

Edited to add 2:

6 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Kas, did you rolescan me N1 to verify, or did you scan someone else? Don't really care who else, but I'm curious.

It's interesting actually - later on I regretted not scanning you due to a crack theory that E!you claimed a teammate's role in order to try to avoid getting flipped D1. But then in that world, it has to be really obvious to E!you I didn't scan you, because you'd know me would obviously push for you to get killed D2 since there's only one main world in which you claim Lopen without being Lopen.

Doesn't mean you can't be E!Lopen, but it's nice to get rid of that theory

Edited April 2, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Hopefully v!Cord can do something, but if Cord is evil, it'll wreak more havoc. If I can count, there are nine players left. that means there could be up to more than half of us as elims (bruh that sentence felt like it had so many issues, hopefully you get what I'm saying)

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Hopefully v!Cord can do something, but if Cord is evil, it'll wreak more havoc. If I can count, there are nine players left. that means there could be up to more than half of us as elims (bruh that sentence felt like it had so many issues, hopefully you get what I'm saying)

1. Unlikely for Cord to be Evil. That gives the Elims 2KP each Night which is hella strong. Single protect isn't enough to balance, and roleblock is dicey. Most distros with Evil!Cord-type roles tend to go for at least two v!Huio-type roles and multiple players with extra lives, cf. AG8.

2. Likely/possibly E!Huio but not sure.

3.  win at parity. This means that if the number of  = number of  in this game at any Turn,  automatically loses. For a game with 14 players, assuming no roles, we are looking at between 3 - 4 . Some GMs use the 1/4 rule, others use the square root rule. This forum prefers 1/4 but has used square root before. My current view is that there are likely 3   but some of it does depend on distro. E.g. say that Huio and Cord and Lopen are all  (IDK how likely this is.) In that world, more likely to see 4  because the team needs extra padding.

Edited to add:

Sorry, to be clear - because of the win condition, if up to more than half of us are Evil, we would have already lost and seen an Aftermath instead of N2. It would also be a very unbalanced game.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Oh, right. I forgot the lose/win conditions.

[Ashbringer]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

It's interesting actually - later on I regretted not scanning you due to a crack theory that E!you claimed a teammate's role in order to try to avoid getting flipped D1. But then in that world, it has to be really obvious to E!you I didn't scan you, because you'd know me would obviously push for you to get killed D2 since there's only one main world in which you claim Lopen without being Lopen.

Doesn't mean you can't be E!Lopen, but it's nice to get rid of that theory

I did think of that as a reason E!me would claim, tbh. But in addition to that risk, it would leave me in a rather awkward place if E!me claimed Lopen then the real E!Lopen died, and with Cord in the mix that could happen pretty much any time.

I also think hypothesizing an E!Cord world might be something we should do, especially if we trust TJ. I trust me, and I think E!Kas would push harder on getting me out D1 tbh. And it's been long enough since AG8 that Evil Coinshot doesn't feel repetitive.

[Kasimir]

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I also think hypothesizing an E!Cord world might be something we should do, especially if we trust TJ. I trust me, and I think E!Kas would push harder on getting me out D1 tbh. And it's been long enough since AG8 that Evil Coinshot doesn't feel repetitive.

Ok, but how do you work with the KP issue? That's sort of what I come back to. As you point out, you have low odds of stopping an Elim kill at the start, and E!CS is two kills. Similar issues with Huio aiming. 

I do agree Archer over you is a Choice - despite my suspicions of Archer, you were probably a more appropriate vigkill target unless Cord was stopped by role considerations. Archer is not a player I would heroshoot easily. I'd also add despite my confusion between Araris and TJ right now, I wouldn't heroshoot them either, as they can be very helpful if .

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I also think hypothesizing an E!Cord world might be something we should do, especially if we trust TJ. I trust me, and I think E!Kas would push harder on getting me out D1 tbh. And it's been long enough since AG8 that Evil Coinshot doesn't feel repetitive.

Indeed, I am extremely difficult to read especially since we just saw E!Kas in MR62

Spoiler

Edited to add: Sure, Mat mentioned he'd be willing to give the Knife to an Elim in QF63 but that was with a bigger player count and the Knife was a oneshot that had a chance of backfiring.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ|]

I think e!Cord would only make sense if Ash is village, and v!Huio and a 2 person elim team. With ML on their side, that's 3 village death per cycle. Starting at 12-2, it's LyLo at the beginning of D4 without considering any successful village protects or roleblocks. That... is not actually absurd, it's quite plausible.

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I think e!Cord would only make sense if Ash is village, and v!Huio and a 2 person elim team. With ML on their side, that's 3 village death per cycle. Starting at 12-2, it's LyLo at the beginning of D4 without considering any successful village protects or roleblocks. That... is not actually absurd, it's quite plausible.

Yeah, but isn't D4 lylo actually pretty fast for a PtV?

Edited to add: I mean the issue in that world is if Cord dies, that team is dead screwed. Volatility is real. It's the problem with building a distro that requires that role.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ|]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Yeah, but isn't D4 lylo actually pretty fast for a PtV?

Maybe but the player count is less. (PtV?)

For v!Cord and 3 person team -> starts with 11-3, if v!Cord misfires in all cycles, game is actually over in N3. Even if v!Cord shoots 1 elim in the three night cycles, D4 would be LyLo anyway. 

[Kasimir]

Just now, |TJ| said:

Maybe but the player count is less. (PtV?)

For v!Cord and 3 person team -> starts with 11-3, if v!Cord misfires in all cycles, game is actually over in N3. Even if v!Cord shoots 1 elim in the three night cycles, D4 would be LyLo anyway. 

Path to Victory.

Hmm, alright. The problem I feel is that flipping Ash to figure Cord out is pretty risky. The downside is that if V!Ash, then we do have a problem since Ash can functionally control E!Cord. Though even then, it's very give-or-take: still need to ID the right Elim, even find Cord in the first place, and can't double-target.

[|TJ|]

17 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Hmm, alright. The problem I feel is that flipping Ash to figure Cord out is pretty risky. The downside is that if V!Ash, then we do have a problem since Ash can functionally control E!Cord. Though even then, it's very give-or-take: still need to ID the right Elim, even find Cord in the first place, and can't double-target.

I think the time to flip Ash has gone past and the correct cycle to flip Ash was the last one. D3 is either the LyLo or quite close to one to flip a player in order to get distro guesses or connections. 

[Kasimir]

36 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I think the time to flip Ash has gone past and the correct cycle to flip Ash was the last one. D3 is either the LyLo or quite close to one to flip a player in order to get distro guesses or connections. 

Tbf I still can't really ID a save Ash movement from the votes which is why I am leaning to V!Ash. But Ash isn't really playing in V!Ash either so IDK anything about this game anymore except that I'm Vikemon :eyes:

[Kasimir]

Apologies for double but it's been some time and I don't want my mobile to screw the post up. Don't think I can get back to PC before rollover. 

Going over the player list:

<Ash, Alpha, Telrao, Araris, TJ, Wiz, JNV, TKN, Elan, Kas>

Removing myself. I'm Vikemon! 

Remove Alpha. Votes are ??? but posts have a good, engaged tone to them for C1 and a casualness I don't expect from an Elim. Also Stick's point on the team going nuts. I don't think an Alpha team kills Stick, who was defending Alpha. 

<Ash, Telrao, Araris, TJ, Wiz, JNV, TKN, Elan>

Remove Wiz. Last votes D1 feel like they are more likely to emerge from a Village perspective. Alpha is LHF. Push is positive. 

Remove Telrao. Confusion posts read genuine. Same point on LHF Alpha push. 

<Ash, Araris, TJ, JNV, TKN, Elan>

Remove TJ. TJ's catch up post felt like it came from a Village perspective and willingness to go for Alpha CW a potentially good look, dampened by fact it was close to EoD. Still feel tortured post voting for Ash is good, especially in light of V!Xino. No real incentive for E!TJ there. A bit more proactive than I remember LG83 E! TJ. 

<Ash, Araris, JNV, TKN, Elan>

Asterisk Ash, Araris and JNV. 

JNV's dgaf is a bit closer to their Village play. 

Agree with Stick on Araris's thread post, felt very natural and stream of consciousness which is a good look. Minus half a Gomamon because Araris is more than capable of doing that. Not sure how I feel about Araris's votes. 

Difficulty of IDing partner makes me lean V on Ash. Ash not really displaying engagement or V playstyle makes me doubt. 

Probably have my PoE in these five. More willing to rule out JNV I guess. Potentially Ash, depending. 

[Mat]

Time!

[Mat]

LG93: Day Three: Rysntly Departed

There once was a girl that went to sea

T’look for Aimia: she would not flee

E’en though she was haunted by Nikli

Oh no, now Rysn's gone, no.

Kasimir was killed! He was Rysn!

Day Three has begun! It will end in about 48 hours, on Tuesday, April 4th, at 8am PDT.

Take note of the following:

• A reminder that you can call on the services of our IM, @StrikerEZ, for any concerns you may have during the game.
• There will be a majority execution today, with no vote minimum. Tied votes will result in a random player in the tie being removed.
• There is an inactivity filter in play, of two turns. Failure to post for the duration of D3 and N3 will result in removal or replacement. Besides that, @Araris Valerian, @The Wandering Wizard and @JNV are being warned for inactivity; failure to post D3 will result in removal or replacement.
• The rules doc can be found here.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Tekkin
2. Archer - Ene Seattle - Expeditioner
3. _Stick_ - Stick - Expeditioner
4. @TheAlpha929 - Kaust Joshe
5. @Araris Valerian - rather lost
6. Kasimir - Keshek - Rysn
7. @Telrao - Mewlnir
8. @Ashbringer - AraRaash
9. @The Wandering Wizard - Raven Beak
10. xinoehp512 - Expeditioner
11. @JNV - Jack
12. Devotary of Spontaneity / @Elandera - Ykld, Rhwm, and Vrodn
13. @|TJ| - Tark
14. Sart - Star Guy - Expeditioner

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by StrikerEZ

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Alright. So… I wonder why Cord did not do anything. That’s okay. Umm… Araris.

[Elandera]

Hmm. I've done some skimming, and have a gut read right now on Wizard. I'll do a deeper dive later today.

[Araris Valerian]

It's possible that Kas is a Cord kill and that Ash managed to block the elim kill. I don't think anyone was reading Kas as elim though. So it seems more likely that either Cord didn't kill or that Ash blocked Cord. Assuming Kas ate the NK, that means the elims are more concerned about thread control than they are about roles. 

I'm going to start out with a vote on TKN. Like I've said before, I'm not a fan of his response about his elim tells, and Kas mentioned in our PM that he'd expect v!TKN to have had more of an impact on the game by now.

2 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Hmm. I've done some skimming, and have a gut read right now on Wizard. I'll do a deeper dive later today.

I'm still having a hard time seeing why e!Wiz switches his vote from Ash to Alpha on D1. It probably makes sense in a v/v/v/v/v world, where he boosted the tie up to 5 people in the hopes of distracting/excusing Cord for killing those folks and hoping that counterwagons would get exed. But I don't really believe that Ash, TJ, and Alpha are all village (though I still lean village on Alpha).

[Elandera]

Keep in mind, I have not looked closely at timing and step-by-step vote counts for D1 circumstances. 

33 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm still having a hard time seeing why e!Wiz switches his vote from Ash to Alpha on D1. It probably makes sense in a v/v/v/v/v world, where he boosted the tie up to 5 people in the hopes of distracting/excusing Cord for killing those folks and hoping that counterwagons would get exed. But I don't really believe that Ash, TJ, and Alpha are all village (though I still lean village on Alpha).

Hear me out, though. 

Lopen is elim.

Elim!Lopen would be a great (but not always reliable) counter to v!Cord, as well as other village roles.

Again, I need to look at the status of votes at that time, but the first Wiz vote looks like distancing, followed by moving away once the train grows.

I could be wildly off base if my timing assumptions are wrong. Once I get on desktop, I'll be able to break it down and get a better idea.