Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[JNV]

Hi sorry I didnt post in the night I had something then I guess I fell asleep without posting and just barely missed rollover sadness so I guess Cord was probably roleblocked at least assuming survivals show in the writeup @Ashbringer dont say who you roleblocked but keep it in mind maybe PM them in the night or I guess they could have forgotten but I dont think thats a safe assumption to make

So I feel like the low temp days weve had so far indicate were just completely offbase so striking the trains from the list weve got Novel Telrao Wizard Devotary/Elandera I kind of think Telrao feels too disengaged for evil even new evil but the rest are kind of floaty Ill go back and look if I can get anything about them but honestly my brain constantly says Novels evil so Ill put my vote there so I dont forget about it for now Novel

14 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Lopen is elim.

So why arent you voting Ashbringer or did you miss their claim on your readthrough for claims we have TJ Rushu Ashbringer Lopen and we had Kasimir Rysn but theyre dead now so yeah Cord and Huio are safely anonymous still 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Also @Matrim's Dice I kind of hate you for that title. “Rysntly Departed” smh

EDIT: wait, I just read the tag. Never mind. Instead I must smh at @Kasimir

Edited April 2, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Elandera]

23 minutes ago, JNV said:

So why arent you voting Ashbringer or did you miss their claim on your readthrough

Because my gut read is on Wizard specifically. I knew about Ash's Lopen claim. My statement you quoted was intended more as postulation than fact/perceived fact. It was the counter possibility to Araris' statement.

In a game where roles are NAI, it is important not to clear or accuse based solely on the role. Wizard's vote seems more suspicious, and if he is elim, Ash!Lopen is more likely to be elim. Hence why I am voting Wiz.

[The Unknown Ajah]

26 minutes ago, JNV said:

Hi sorry I didnt post in the night I had something then I guess I fell asleep without posting and just barely missed rollover sadness so I guess Cord was probably roleblocked at least assuming survivals show in the writeup @Ashbringer dont say who you roleblocked but keep it in mind maybe PM them in the night or I guess they could have forgotten but I dont think thats a safe assumption to make

So I feel like the low temp days weve had so far indicate were just completely offbase so striking the trains from the list weve got Novel Telrao Wizard Devotary/Elandera I kind of think Telrao feels too disengaged for evil even new evil but the rest are kind of floaty Ill go back and look if I can get anything about them but honestly my brain constantly says Novels evil so Ill put my vote there so I dont forget about it for now Novel

As much as I want to die so you guys can remember how v!me works, I'll defend this as best as I can. I was actually two vote train for a good part of early d1, and had one vote until pretty near the end when Stick moved to Wiz, and several people expressed interest in joining Stick. So while I was only a train early on in the cycle, there was one vote (the ending tie was two votes!) on me most of the game. 

[Ashbringer]

If Cord did kill Kas, they should probably claim soon. Otherwise I’m keeping this to myself unless people are really concerned about E!Cord.

[Elandera]

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

If Cord did kill Kas, they should probably claim soon. Otherwise I’m keeping this to myself unless people are really concerned about E!Cord.

>>

No, Cord should not claim.

Ash

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

Keep in mind, I have not looked closely at timing and step-by-step vote counts for D1 circumstances. 

Hear me out, though. 

Lopen is elim.

Elim!Lopen would be a great (but not always reliable) counter to v!Cord, as well as other village roles.

Again, I need to look at the status of votes at that time, but the first Wiz vote looks like distancing, followed by moving away once the train grows.

I could be wildly off base if my timing assumptions are wrong. Once I get on desktop, I'll be able to break it down and get a better idea.

So my take on this though is that a bunch of non-Ash folks had 2 votes when Wizard switched. If e!Lopen (which I am considering regardless of Wiz's alignment), why leave his survival up to chance? Wiz could have switched to myself, or Sart, or TJ.

[Ashbringer]

18 minutes ago, Elandera said:

>>

No, Cord should not claim.

Ash

If Cord killed Kas, then I roleblocked an Elim. Unless they didn’t attack, which makes no sense for a variety of reasons.

[The Unknown Ajah]

21 minutes ago, Elandera said:

>>

No, Cord should not claim.

Ash

I'm pretty sure if Ash is evil, the elims know who Cord is regardless, and Cord should claim so they can be protected.

[Elandera]

Spoiler

Well, I now realize I had some fundamental misconceptions of the rules and timing. Specifically, Huio. 

Ash

I'm going to go sit in the box of shame for a minute before I start throwing votes around again. 

[Telrao]

*screaming* KAS NOOO WE NEEDED HIS SKILLZ AHHHHHHHH

You know what? Poke vote time!

Araris

It's gut rn. Might change it later, but I'm sitting on this wagon >:(

[Araris Valerian]

22 minutes ago, Telrao said:

*screaming* KAS NOOO WE NEEDED HIS SKILLZ AHHHHHHHH

You know what? Poke vote time!

Araris

It's gut rn. Might change it later, but I'm sitting on this wagon >:(

I'm not sure that is definitionally a poke vote. What are your thoughts on Ash and TJ? Do you think the elims would have either Lopen or Rushu on their team? What about Wizard? Do you agree with my analysis that it doesn't really fit for him to be elim with Ash?

Edit: @TheAlpha929, I'd also like to hear your thoughts on the above, and whether or not your reads list has changed since the start of D2.

Edited April 2, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[The Wandering Wizard]

Ah hello thread. Been busy with family.

Rereading now but it looks like Cord held their kill or the elims or Cord were roleblocked. 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

5 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not sure that is definitionally a poke vote. What are your thoughts on Ash and TJ? Do you think the elims would have either Lopen or Rushu on their team? What about Wizard? Do you agree with my analysis that it doesn't really fit for him to be elim with Ash?

Edit: @TheAlpha929, I'd also like to hear your thoughts on the above, and whether or not your reads list has changed since the start of D2.

I believe TJ that he is Rushu, but it's possible that he's not village. I guess I'm leaning on v!TJ atm. As for Ash? I didn't like the train on him at the beginning. It seemed too random and whatever. But rn it's possible that anyone is evil. Honestly, I'm not sure about a single person in the game. I reckon for the most part my reads are similar. Might go through and list a gut read on everyone again soon.

Edited April 3, 2023 by TheAlpha929
So. Many. Typos.

[Ashbringer]

@|TJ|, did you PM two people this turn? And which two?

[Araris Valerian]

7 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

I guess I'm leaning on v!TJ atm.

What changed since last cycle, when you were happy to vote on him?

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

What changed since last cycle, when you were happy to vote on him?

The fact that he is Rushu. I suppose I should revise that statement: I am not as sure that he is on the other team.

[Mat]

22.5 hours remaining!

• Araris Valerian (2): TheAlpha929, Telrao
• The Known Novel (1): Araris Valerian

[Araris Valerian]

18 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

22.5 hours remaining!

• Araris Valerian (2): TheAlpha929, Telrao
• The Known Novel (1): Araris Valerian

You appear to be missing JNV’s vote on TKN.

And c’mon guys, this is embarrassing. It is possible to play and win as village without Kas to hold our hand along the way. Half the votes placed this cycle have no stated justification and nobody seems interested in discussing the outcome of the previous days. The game doesn’t solve itself.

In response to TKN’s “defense” towards JNV, your point is essentially irrelevant. So far a couple of people have pointed out how you seem to be elim this game, and you’ve said they are wrong. Okay, sure, you can say that. But that doesn’t really help. You could be lying, you could be switching things up. What you aren’t doing is (visibly) looking for elims. At least the folks voting on me are doing that.

I’m working on a more comprehensive analysis post that hopefully will go up before I go to bed.

 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Okay, so, you’ve helped your case Araris. I don’t want to put complete trust in whatever you say, and maybe this is a dumb thing to do but Araris TKN. This isn’t to say I don’t think you’re bad, but you’ve convinced me that TKN is a better choice.

[Ashbringer]

I’d be fine voting out TKN here, but others like Elandera and Wizard have been sort of ghosts.

[Araris Valerian]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’d be fine voting out TKN here, but others like Elandera and Wizard have been sort of ghosts.

I think this far Elandera seems to be making an effort this cycle, and I’ve explained my take on Wiz, but I agree that I’d like to hear them both elaborate on their current reads.

[Mat]

Actual VC:

• Araris Valerian (1): Telrao
• The Known Novel (4): Araris Valerian, JNV, TheAlpha929, Ashbringer

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

You appear to be missing JNV’s vote on TKN.

And c’mon guys, this is embarrassing. It is possible to play and win as village without Kas to hold our hand along the way. Half the votes placed this cycle have no stated justification and nobody seems interested in discussing the outcome of the previous days. The game doesn’t solve itself.

In response to TKN’s “defense” towards JNV, your point is essentially irrelevant. So far a couple of people have pointed out how you seem to be elim this game, and you’ve said they are wrong. Okay, sure, you can say that. But that doesn’t really help. You could be lying, you could be switching things up. What you aren’t doing is (visibly) looking for elims. At least the folks voting on me are doing that.

I’m working on a more comprehensive analysis post that hopefully will go up before I go to bed.

 

At this point I am completely willing to die so it can just be established that you are all making activity arguments when they don't work on me.

This is a disingenuous argument here. My point against JNV and JNVs post alone was completely valid, as he was arguing that I was elim due to his theory that elims weren't under pressure, and I responded that I had been under pressure. It was completely relevant to the problem at hand.

If we're playing the irrelevant game, then your post is irrelevant, any negative point against me is irrelevant. Why? Because. 

But I'm not going to be child, so here's a the concrete reasons why you're wrong. Here's your initial vote post from earlier this cycle:

On 4/2/2023 at 10:17 AM, Araris Valerian said:

I'm going to start out with a vote on TKN. Like I've said before, I'm not a fan of his response about his elim tells, and Kas mentioned in our PM that he'd expect v!TKN to have had more of an impact on the game by now.

"I'm not a fan of his response on his elim tells" So? That's not actually a reason to suspect me or vote me. Said elim tells are, but you never actually mention those, except for your next part "Kas mentioned in our PM that he'd expect v!TKN to have had more of an impact by now." The latest Kas could have said that was n2. N2! I can understand Kas' argument that I start making a impact later on, in fact, I think he's right, but you can't backtrack that to the second cycle, through most of which I was very sick. I almost never come into play cycle two. Sometimes I get a correct hunch c1 and follow it, but normally I start coming in late c3 and c4. Also, I thought we were supposed to be doing this without Kas holding our hand? Not just following his reads until we die. Also, no reasoning? You put words that don't mean anything as your reasoning. You put an opinion that is irrelevant to my alignment, and something Kas said that has negative evidence behind it. 

Now let's look at my other votes and see just how dumb they are.

JNV: Already argued it, I was under a not insignificant amount of pressure throughout d1, and his argument is predicated on elims not being under pressure. Also he has self-professed that he always reads me as elim.

Alpha: Pure sheeping. While I don't blame him on account of him being new, I wouldn't doubt that he's been told to play up his newness by the elim doc and is reaping the rewards.

Ash: Why Ash? Why are you "fine voting TKN here?" You can't just be agreeing with Araris' read, because their built on a faulty foundation. 

For all this, I think there's a decent chance that Araris is being an honest villager, but since there's also a good chance that he's making faulty arguments to go after the LHF that my train always is, and since he is my best chance, I'll put my vote on Araris.

[The Wandering Wizard]

On 4/2/2023 at 10:11 AM, TheAlpha929 said:

Alright. So… I wonder why Cord did not do anything. That’s okay. Umm… Araris.

This feels like TMI, but in all honestly it's probably just new playerness. Still don't really want to write it off, so I'll make a note of it.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

I think this far Elandera seems to be making an effort this cycle, and I’ve explained my take on Wiz, but I agree that I’d like to hear them both elaborate on their current reads.

Alpha seems too aware of certain things that I wouldn't expect even for a new player on their second game. I could be very wrong but the gut wants what the guts wants. Alpha