Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[|TJ|]

7 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

That sheep vote was because I had multiple candidates, and I wasn't sure which one I should go for. Figured I'd go for the next one that got voted for.

But see, when I flip green, it gives e!you a reason to hide behind the person you sheep, in this case Araris. 

I don't just suspect your for the sheeping btw, your post gives reasoning to your reads only in some places, and when you do, it's rather vague. 

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Archer was killed! He was an Expeditioner!

_Stick_ was killed! She was an Expeditioner!

I think it's reasonable to conclude, as Devo notes, that it's E!kill Stick, and Cord kill Archer. Which is an interesting choice on both ends, and makes me slightly concerned about an E!Cord game.

Going to need to redo my reads and a vote analysis in light of this flips, but not until the painkillers kick in.

37 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

@Kasimir, need your opinion on this as you read Araris better and I was paranoiding e!Araris in AG8 endgame >>

K, so the problem here is that I have a tendency to want Araris to be Village more often than he is, so if anything, I will tend to give him more chances even when the evidence says we should probably flip him. His moving to you late at EoD is something that stood out to me and that I haven't quite made sense of. My current thoughts, pre-reread:

• I don't really know why E!you deliberately goes for Ash over Sart, after mentioning Sart is sus. You just get sus out of it. Maybe there's something in the vote-state I'm missing out and that I need to recheck, but that doesn't feel like it comes very much from an Elim viewpoint. Well, the problem is it really does, because it suggests agenda, but the flips make it difficult to see why there should be agenda there, so it ends up seeming more Village. Maybe there's a mistake I'm making here, but re-read won't happen until pks.
   
• My problem with the Araris vote is why not Sart? He could've saved Ash more decisively - not knowing if anyone would peel off Ash just means that his voting you essentially doesn't really do anything apart from padding the votes a little just in case someone goes for you. Trying to campaign for a train on V!you is a small risk - admittedly small because it's unlikely there'll be too many takers at EoD, but then we have to question how successful that would be in saving E!Ash. Araris is known to dislike drawing attention on C1 as an Elim. (I asterisk this because he likes to break his own patterns.) Given Ash's willingness to park a vote on Araris, I don't feel like they're coherently very E/E, since the CW to save Lopen could've taken out Araris.
   
• Tbh the fact I'm still alive is making me squint a little at you, Araris, and JNV >>

40 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Why wouldn't e!Wiz imply e!Ash?

Wiz was too willing to move back onto Ash near EoD, before moving off again at last minute. Feels like there's no real impetus to do that unless you postulate Wiz was gambling that his vote on Ash would deter others from voting on Ash. Hopping on and off Ash draws unnecessary attention. That's my take on it.

2 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Well, didn't block anything useful to block so I'll probably keep that target to myself.

Hmmm.

Would you be willing to answer with a Yes/No if you blocked Araris? He has a habit of liking to put in the kills, so if you did block him, I think that's useful to know.

3 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

EDIT: Just read through there, and realized that I guessed that pretty much everyone was evil.

I feel your pain, this is me a lot, though since I think late last year, I end up with waaaay too many Village reads until I can do vote analysis.

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm honestly a bit surprised that Ash didn't get killed by either team based on his roleclaim (great NK target if v) and the fact that he survived the day after never having less votes than anyone (great Cord target). 

Yes.

Araris for now.

Edited to add:

@|TJ| - Archer and Stick were more sold on V!Alpha than I was. It's true the Elims can't predict who Cord kills unless Cord is Evil but I feel that killing the player I trusted more than Archer (Stick) who also was very vocal about defending Alpha makes little sense in an E!Alpha world - getting rid of me removes several birds with a stone.

Edited March 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[Araris Valerian]

48 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Why wouldn't e!Wiz imply e!Ash?

You're right, I had it backwards. e!Ash doesn't imply e!Wiz, since it raises the question of why Wiz created a tie rather than putting someone else in the lead.

47 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I couldn't find any reason why you shifted onto me at the end of last cycle. What was your reasoning to vote for me? V!Araris is usually fine being on side-trains. 

Well, I would have shifted my vote sooner if I'd realized that Archer's vote wasn't going to stick to Telrao, and just wasn't online again until near EOC. Rollover is right in the middle of the school day for me, though the half-hour before cycle end is generally free.

Honestly I didn't have a reason for voting you in particular. It was D1 and I was trying to feel out if anyone wanted to counter the Ash train that we'd been sitting on literally the entire day. At that point only Sart and myself also had 2 votes, neither of which I was super attracted to.

I'm comfy on side trains, but that doesn't mean it's helpful for me to vote on them.

[Ashbringer]

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Hmmm.

Would you be willing to answer with a Yes/No if you blocked Araris? He has a habit of liking to put in the kills, so if you did block him, I think that's useful to know.

I did not block Araris.

(I do remember that, but Araris knows I know that and I think I’ve used it against him before, so I figured I’d go for someone else.)

[Kasimir]

Just now, Ashbringer said:

I did not block Araris.

(I do remember that, but Araris knows I know that and I think I’ve used it against him before, so I figured I’d go for someone else.)

Thanks.

I think this at least rules out one paranoid theory I had...

[Telrao]

*Logs onto the Shard*

WHAT THE STORMS

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I'm still keeping my vote on Alpha - he pretty sus >:(

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, Telrao said:

*Logs onto the Shard*

WHAT THE STORMS

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I'm still keeping my vote on Alpha - he pretty sus >:(

You have to revote - each Day is a clean slate.

[Telrao]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

You have to revote - each Day is a clean slate.

Ah, I see. Alpha, then! HmmmMMMmmmMMMm yes

*guzzles mead*

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

*throws muffins* 

*meaningful stuff pertaining to the game*

[Kasimir]

Alright. First thing's first, a quick and dirty analysis:

Let's go back to the D1 votes. I want to get some discussion fodder out and can't hold on until I do the full progression analysis so oy vey lesgo.

Quote

• Ashbringer (2): xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity
• _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
• Sart (2): Archer, _Stick_
• TheAlpha929 (2): Telrao, The Wandering Wizard
• |TJ| (2): Sart, Araris Valerian
• Archer (1): TheAlpha929
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Kasimir

Suppose we return to the state of the votes. Everyone voted except JNV. Even if JNV is Evil, they should at least have two other teammates who also voted. (This is for the moment disregarding E!Cord team composition theories, where ex hypothesi, the Elim team has two members, because it's kinda hard to justify giving an Elim team 2KP a cycle.)

...I still sort of lean V!Cord though, for the record. E!CS with no alignment scans and one RB feels a bit uphill. But this is me thinking off the top of my head. 

The point I'm making here anyway is that there has to be at least one Elim voter in the pile. So the trick is discovering them.

• The Devo side-train was just me and I'm Vikemon! So I'm not going to really consider this one.

I'm going to try an experiment first. I'm going to colour everything in with my naive credences (i.e. end of N1, with the info from the flips today) - then I'm going to check for inconsistencies and identify what needs revision.

Quote

• Ashbringer (2): xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity
• _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
• Sart (2): Archer, _Stick_
• TheAlpha929 (2): Telrao, The Wandering Wizard
• |TJ| (2): Sart, Araris Valerian
• Archer (1): TheAlpha929
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Kasimir

This leaves me with a team in <Ash, Devo, TKN.> (JNV isn't here but recall I have some slight Village credences from end of N1.) This is...possible but just weird. I don't really see E!Ash going to Dingo mode with that team. Devo choosing not to save Ash but voting on Araris is a bit odd, as I think she could have voted TJ without too much issues. Devo occasionally has a tendency to overbus teammates, so I can mark this as revisable, but I think that's a prima facie argument against how viable this line of thought is.

(Also I don't remotely believe I'm this right D2.)

Re-Read Thoughts:

Ok sorry guys, this section borked. I did a read-through of the entire thread in my GM PM but it looks like the Shard ate easily half my comments. I don't want to completely redo right now so I'm just gonna...just gonna... :sob:

Me rn:

Spoiler

Day One Re-Read Thoughts:

Spoiler

I like the candidness from Wiz, and lean slightly towards thinking this is a good look for him. You could argue that E!Wiz just sort of blurted it out into the thread, but I feel that sort of unguarded comment is more likely to come from a Villager. Voting is a fundamentally Village activity and admitting to forgetting about it just looks bad and is something an Elim should be more sensitive to. 

Nice comfort in thread from Alpha. Tempted to award a here. Fairly casual and immediate interaction is a good look since this is when thread kicks up. Clearly no collusion with Stick since Stick is  (sorry Stick, posthumous Digivolution I guess!)

Believe Alpha should get some credit here as well. Typically, a FNG play aims to gain a Village read for playing up newness under the reasoning an Elim is better guided. Here, Alpha is repudiating the play, which I think is a little counterintuitive for E!Alpha running a FNG.

Note: TJ starts with a gut Village on Alpha and gut Evil on Xino. Not flagging this out as AI but I think it's worth KIVing for how these things evolve, since TJ now has a solid Village on Xino D2, and I want to note that I think it's possible TJ's vote saved Xino (more later - I'm re-reading right now.)

He doesn't vote Xino, and when asked, says it's because he doesn't want to make gut voting a habit. I think I want to go back and look this up, to confirm. It does push a bit against TJ/Xino E/E because there's no reason TJ shouldn't just vote Xino here if he's already making the distancing read - early game gut votes are cheap. Very reluctant potential  here.

Comfort in thread from Xino. He's done this as well when Evil but I think less often and less engaged. (More on this later.)

Slow start from JNV. Feel as though E!JNV would've done more to engage. Not sure. JNV sometimes has engagement problems when Village and I tentatively want to say this looks like V!JNV right here but a single post is very thin gruel.

Still unclear what to make of Xino fourthing the vote on Ash. Worth asking about if hasn't already been asked.

Vc at this point:

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (4): Wizard, Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (2): Alpha, Stick
Araris (1): Ash

Maybe half an hour later, Wiz gets a Really Bad Feeling about this and hops off and onto Xino. I think it's a reasonable reaction no matter Wiz's alignment. Also indicates that Wiz and TKN are not/unlikely E/E. Later explains that he doesn't like Xino's sheep and has a negative gut reaction.

I sort of want to this - this is a clear vote with a reason and E!Wiz should've thought to add it. The fact that he doesn't makes me think that he doesn't particularly care/think about how he is presenting his thoughts, which makes me believe in V!Wiz.

Stick reacts by voting Wiz, and Araris flags this and says he doesn't know what to think.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Stick

Araris flags that Xino might be trying to collapse a train but doesn't pressure Xino. Why not, Araris? This is the intuitive approach, no?

Telrao poke votes me. Potential attempt to side-train?

 

[EVERYTHING LOST HERE WHY WHY WHY OMFG AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA]

 

Recapping my thoughts:

• The Stick kill really isn't in Devo's MO. That's a in her favour though it's worth noting kill meta swamping can occur.
• I give TKN a slight for the Sart mention, but it basically faded into the dust and he has also racked up  for general thread disinterest/lack of engagement.
• I think I am alright with for Alpha on multiple counts: Alpha's vote switches really don't look great, but a Stick kill is not necessarily a good choice for an Alpha team. Relooking at the exchanges, it seems rather natural.
• I still lean  on TJ: the Sart point again, and TJ's vote on Ash doesn't really make that much sense though I'd like to know why @|TJ| moved off Wiz citing a point on Sart.
• I am mixed about Wiz. I lean on the basis of thread and posts but Wiz's votes aren't inspiring. It's difficult to see a world in which Wiz and Ash are teamed.
• I sort of want to lean  on Ash because the Ash train did in fact meet opposition but also dissolved organically, and Wiz doesn't look teamed with Ash. With a combination of that and high train purity, I'm struggling to see coherent E!Ash. But Ash channelling inner Dingo isn't very inspiring either of trust.

Xino.

Acknowledge I'm still paranoid of Araris, had a few points where I felt Telrao felt pure or uncoached, again I'll pull it all later, I just feel very demoralised over losing my posts and notes right now. TKN IMO is definitely a candidate, and I squint at JNV - technically they're a bit more in their Village meta, but they're in the pool. Despite the Devo kill meta point, I am more inclined to feel Devo's intervention reads rather gerrymandered into the Araris vote.

In an E!Ash world, the main culprits for significant vote hopping are: myself, Stick, Archer, Wiz, Telrao, Alpha. (TJ doesn't count as he voted for Ash at crucial junctures.) Wiz doesn't really make sense either, and I think there's some reason to believe V!Alpha. Which sort of leaves an Ash/Telrao team but I don't think Ash goes this silent if Telrao is Evil, and it doesn't account for some of Telrao's responses/posts.

So I sort of feel like I'm stuck with a potential V!Ash conclusion either way.

If V!Ash, then the stability of Xino's vote has to come back into question - Elims have less incentive to switch because it's a comfortable state of affairs. Araris, Devo, and TKN also show up as stability candidates.

That's it from me for now. Brb crying over my lost notes ._.

Edited to add: Like, if there's something specific you want me to mention, lmk, but rn it's just so painful trying to recreate everything and immediately redo the thread read. My take on Xino boils down to the fact I think the tonal points are marginally Village rather than decisively so and Xino's vote stability sticks out with all the hopping - Xino basically sticks on Ash and doesn't budge. It makes sense in light of Xino being the CW but as soon as Xino stopped being the CW, it becomes more questionable and suggests low investment.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Kasimir

[xinoehp512]

51 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Worth asking about if hasn't already been asked.

Is that a question? 

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

Is that a question? 

Yes. Why fourth that vote?

[xinoehp512]

Just now, Kasimir said:

Yes. Why fourth that vote?

I had a sort of plan to double up on any voter that broke the tie, creating a serious train, in the hopes of drawing out defense of a potential elim. Given how much shifting around there was regarding Ash, it leaves me suspicious.

[Kasimir]

Just now, xinoehp512 said:

I had a sort of plan to double up on any voter that broke the tie, creating a serious train, in the hopes of drawing out defense of a potential elim. Given how much shifting around there was regarding Ash, it leaves me suspicious.

What shifting?

[xinoehp512]

Just now, Kasimir said:

What shifting?

...pretty much everyone else except for me, I'm pretty sure.

[Ashbringer]

People hopped on and off me a lot, from what I remember.

I'd also just like to note that Dingo was completely detached from the actual thread, I'm just mostly detached 

Hmm. @Devotary of Spontaneity, why'd you follow me when I was one of the bigger vote leads?

[Kasimir]

56 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

...pretty much everyone else except for me, I'm pretty sure.

Sigh. Let's redo the notes after all. Yes and no - you stand out as the most stable voter for a reason, in a cycle where people didn't just shift, but went to other trains.

But.

(1)

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (4): Wizard, Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (2): Alpha, Stick
Araris (1): Ash

You double up my vote before Rollovet. This is not a particularly serious threat.

Nevertheless, Wiz moves off and votes you. This is either Elim opportunism or a Villager suspecting what looks like a vacuous fourth vote - I lean towards the latter because that vote was a gift, with no follow-up analysis.

(2) 

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (2): Alpha, Stick
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (1): Wiz

Sure, we can call this protective of Ash - except Wiz then goes back to vote Ash one hour to EoD when he's not going to do anything else in terms of encouraging people off.

(3)

Stick responds to that by voting Wiz, but had negative gut of Wiz anyway. Stick flipped so this is a movement, and isn't a shift 'surrounding' Ash. This also isn't train dilution tactics for the same reason.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Stick

(4)

Telrao comes in and votes me. This is potential vote dilution, but I notice Telrao doesn't appear on your radar at all. (I do have reason to think Telrao Village but believe this should be flagged anyway.)

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (1): Wiz
Wiz (1): Stick
Kas (1): Telrao

(5)

Sart doubles up the vote on you. Again, Sart flipped so this is a movement. This isn't making a CW in that sense.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wiz, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kas (1): Telrao

(7)

TJ makes an incredibly gerrymandered vote and votes Ash. This isn't defensive of Ash, and in fact, is very hard to explain from E!TJ because E!TJ should just vote Sart and call it a day. There's no reason to go to Ash when there's a Sart train and a you train waiting regardless of Ash's alignment.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (4): Araris, Kasimir, Xino, TJ
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wiz, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kas (1): Telrao

(8)

I shift off to Sart. Not really going to say more here.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Xino, TJ
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wiz, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kas (1): Telrao
Sart (1): Kas

(9)

Telrao swaps to Xino. Arguable that Telrao realised no one was biting on the attempted CW. But I'm usually not the best CW target anyway. This ties Ash and Xino.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Xino, TJ
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Wiz (1): Stick
Sart (1): Kas

(10)

Alpha then follows onto Xino. This is where I say Alpha has genuinely ??? vote moves. But he also later moves onto Ash so the proper read is that he actually just gives no chulls about Ash or Xino.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Xino, TJ
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (4): Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha
Wiz (1): Stick
Sart (1): Kas

The one (1) point in the cycle where Xino leads.

(11)

Archer sees that shift and votes Telrao instead for Reasons but he flipped so once again, this isn't train dilution; it's a movement.

Quote

Ash (3): Araris, Xino, TJ
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (4): Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha
Wiz (1): Stick
Sart (1): Kas
Telrao (1): Archer

(12)

I decide to hop back to Ash. Largely because I was somewhat reading Xino at that time and also to see if anyone wants to break it. Not really defensive of Ash.

Quote

Ash (4): Araris, Xino, TJ, Kas
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (4): Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha
Wiz (1): Stick
Telrao (1): Archer

(13)

Two hours later, Araris hops off onto Telrao. No questions asked from you, I notice, despite your contention that you made your move to generate analysis. This matters because Araris's vote protects Ash and keeps you in the lead. There are arguments that could be made that Araris could reasonably expect the Xino train to collapse due to Sart, but that's a separate kettle of fish. I also am not sure we can coherently team Araris and Ash due to Ash being willing to park his vote on Araris, and Araris's EoD indifference. (Archer also notes that he's not a good candidate to +1, which fair.)

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Kas
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (4): Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha
Wiz (1): Stick
Telrao (2): Archer, Araris

(14)

Alpha hops off Xino and onto Telrao. Arguably, creating a three-way tie.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Kas
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Wiz (1): Stick
Telrao (3): Archer, Araris, Alpha

You could argue this is defensive of Ash. But again, Alpha also happily votes Ash later so ???

(15)

Archer goes to TKN. Recall that Archer is so this isn't really side-train creation/protecting Ash via train dilution.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Kas
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Wiz (1): Stick
Telrao (2): Araris, Alpha
TKN (1): Archer

(16)

Stick +1s the TKN vote. I am getting incredibly tired of saying this, but Stick is , therefore this isn't side-train creation or protective of Ash.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Kas
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Telrao (2): Araris, Alpha
TKN (2): Archer, Stick

(17)

TKN retaliatory votes Stick. Arguably train dilution but TKN could just vote you or Telrao to protect Ash. In addition, Stick was not a realistic CW. However, this vote never budges. That's noteworthy in and of itself.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Kas
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Telrao (2): Araris, Alpha
TKN (2): Archer, Stick
Stick (1): TKN

(18)

And yet again Alpha changes vote to Ash. Definitely not defensive of Ash. Ash returns to the lead.

Quote

Ash (4): Xino, TJ, Kas, Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (2): Archer, Stick
Stick (1): TKN

(19)

Archer votes Sart. Again, is , therefore this isn't side-train creation or protective of Ash.

Quote

Ash (4): Xino, TJ, Kas, Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (1): Stick
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (1): Archer

(20)

Telrao swaps off Xino to Alpha which is reasonable from a Village perspective. You can hypothesise that Telrao was fishing for an Ash-protective train, but again, that hasn't emerged in suspicion at all. (I also am not sure Alpha is the best side-train in that situation - Telrao shouldn't have moved, and have thoughts about how willing Ash would be to go Dingo with Telrao as his teammate.)

Quote

Ash (4): Xino, TJ, Kas, Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wiz, Sart
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (1): Stick
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (1): Archer
Alpha (1): Telrao

(21)

Sart moves to TJ. Sart is , therefore this is a vote movement.

Quote

Ash (4): Xino, TJ, Kas, Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (1): Wiz
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (1): Stick
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (1): Archer
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (1): Sart

(22)

Wiz abandons the dead train for TJ. TJ flags Wiz's reasoning here as sus. I don't disagree - vagueness and parroting are hallmarks of E!Wiz, at least cf. MR61.

Quote

Ash (4): Xino, TJ, Kas, Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (1): Stick
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (1): Archer
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Wiz

(23)

TJ swaps to Wiz. You can argue it's defensive of Ash, but then why vote Ash in the first place? Remember: this is the guy who made a suspiciously-gerrymandered post saying "I suspect Sart more but will vote Ash." You could argue train explosion tactics, but he will later on leave his vote on Ash for EoD. That's rather dgaf.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, Kas, Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (1): Stick
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (1): Archer
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Wiz
Wiz (1): TJ

(24)

Devo votes Araris. Noted unwillingness to vote TJ or Wiz - could've voted TJ to tie Ash off with TJ but did not. Slight good look for that.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, Kas, Alpha
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (1): Stick
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (1): Archer
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Wiz
Wiz (1): TJ

(25)

I move to Wiz after Ash's claim. Four way tie.

Quote

Ash (2): Xino, Alpha
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Telrao (1): Araris
TKN (1): Stick
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (1): Archer
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Wiz
Wiz (2): TJ, Kas

(26)

Stick goes to Sart. I'm tired of cping. Soddit. Stick is , therefore this is a vote movement. Five way tie thanks to Stick.

Quote

Ash (2): Xino, Alpha
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Telrao (1): Araris
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (2): Archer, Stick
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Wiz
Wiz (2): TJ, Kas

(27)

TJ settles on Ash. His vote doesn't move and tie-breaks against Ash. Remember Ash isn't on for the rest of the cycle either, and TJ was pushing for a Wiz train. Hard to see a coherent TJ/Ash/Wiz team ehre.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, Alpha, TJ
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Telrao (1): Araris
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (2): Archer, Stick
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Wiz
Wiz (1): Kas

(28)

Alpha moves from Ash to Archer. Nfc why. Potential train-shopping I guess.

Quote

Ash (2): Xino, TJ
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Telrao (1): Araris
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (2): Archer, Stick
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Wiz
Wiz (1): Kas
Archer (1): Alpha

(29)

Wiz dislikes Alpha's vote and takes it out on votes Ash instead of joining on Alpha. No real reason to go Ash - going Sart or TJ or Alpha was fine, and going Alpha given his post suspicious of Alpha would have attracted less scrutiny. TJ had said he was going to be away so there's no real hope of scaring anyone off and it's an hour to EoD.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Wiz
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Telrao (1): Araris
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (2): Archer, Stick
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (1): Sart
Wiz (1): Kas
Archer (1): Alpha

(30)

I give up on life and vote Devo.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Wiz
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Telrao (1): Araris
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (2): Archer, Stick
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (1): Sart
Archer (1): Alpha
Devo (1): Kas

(31)

Araris tries for TJ takers. This feels a bit performative given that TJ has been on the table anyway since Sart - it's not like he's trying to bring in a new train. But soliciting votes on a Villager for whom you have no particular reason to sus (E!Araris's perspective) is a dangerous move. Potentially mitigated by the fact it's under an hour to EoD so the train is unlikely to take.

Quote

Ash (3): Xino, TJ, Wiz
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (2): Archer, Stick
Alpha (1): Telrao
TJ (2): Sart, Araris
Archer (1): Alpha
Devo (1): Kas

(32)

Wiz goes for a five way tie. Why Wiz, why.

Quote

Ash (2): Xino, TJ
Araris (2): Ash, Devo
Stick (1): TKN
Sart (2): Archer, Stick
Alpha (2): Telrao, Wiz
TJ (2): Sart, Araris
Archer (1): Alpha
Devo (1): Kas

So my problem with the contention that there's a lot of vote movements is that it's strictly-speaking true and practically false: the extraordinary stability of the Ash train is pretty telling, in light of the fact Xino spent a decent chunk of time also being a lead train and that train dissolved! That makes me believe that the parked votes are more worthy of scrutiny than the ones that shifted.

It doesn't help that the players who shifted the most are <Wiz, Alpha, Telrao, me, Stick, Archer> - and Stick and Archer flipped  and I'm . I've flagged the problems with suggesting that Wiz and Alpha and Telrao are defensive of an Elim buddy here, though one can certainly pressure them more. If anything, it sounds like you've pre-flipped Ash without making a determination about whether the movements are organic or not.

Edited to add:

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

People hopped on and off me a lot, from what I remember.

See partial reconstruction of notes. Every player who has ever voted on you D1 includes: <Xino, Araris, me, TJ, Wiz, Alpha.> There's a lot of hopping on and off and very little defending.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Kasimir

[Telrao]

Wow... Kasimir I have deep respect for your analytical skills what >>

RIP lost info o7

I am extremely confused right now... but won't change my vote yet. I'm leaning towards Ash and Araris as suspects - and am still uncertain who I would choose darn poke voting why??

Currently attempting to sort through my brain: will let y'all know later if I pull out anything useful ;-;

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Telrao said:

Wow... Kasimir I have deep respect for your analytical skills what >>

RIP lost info o7

I am extremely confused right now... but won't change my vote yet. I'm leaning towards Ash and Araris as suspects - and am still uncertain who I would choose darn poke voting why??

Currently attempting to sort through my brain: will let y'all know later if I pull out anything useful ;-;

I mean we play the game how we want to, as long as it's fun for you, that's good. There's something to be said about having fun and helping your team - Village or otherwise - but still, if RPing it is more fun for you, you should. (This isn't to license complete chaosplay that makes players struggle to read you, but again, RPing is cool.)

I mostly haven't been RPing because I signed up for this game on a Tress kick but am now on a Digimon kick so my head is no longer in nautical headspace but in Digimon headspace and that's making it hard to RP.

That being said: I'm confused too, mostly throwing thoughts out to see if people can help me make sense of these things together

I will admit there is a pragmatic case for Ash - knowing Ash's alignment helps us just figure out what's happening D1. That being said, I do lean Village on Ash for now but also sort of feel that there's enough doubt there I don't know I'd care to aggressively defend Ash. There's also something to be said about how we don't have to flip the CW just to figure out what's going on.

I would like to think Araris is Village but I usually want him to be Village anyway so RIP.

[Mat]

Vote Count:

• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, Telrao
• |TJ| (2): Araris Valerian, TheAlpha929
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Ashbringer (1): |TJ|
• xinoehp512 (1): Kasimir

21 hours remaining!

[The Unknown Ajah]

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

TKN also show up as stability candidates.

I have a feeling I'm misunderstanding here, and I know you have other (decently valid, if incorrect) reasons that you suspect me, but since when do I ever vote more than two people in a cycle? 

22 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Thanks.

I think this at least rules out one paranoid theory I had...

I will note that quite a while ago, during a game that I was elim with Araris, he specifically mentioned wanting to not put in the elim kill because of this.

[Kasimir]

10 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

I have a feeling I'm misunderstanding here, and I know you have other (decently valid, if incorrect) reasons that you suspect me, but since when do I ever vote more than two people in a cycle? 

To put it more clearly: it doesn't allow you to be excluded from PoE. 

Do you have current thoughts/suspicions?

11 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

I will note that quite a while ago, during a game that I was elim with Araris, he specifically mentioned wanting to not put in the elim kill because of this.

I didn't say the theory was about Araris  

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

12 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I will admit there is a pragmatic case for Ash - knowing Ash's alignment helps us just figure out what's happening D1. That being said, I do lean Village on Ash for now but also sort of feel that there's enough doubt there I don't know I'd care to aggressively defend Ash. There's also something to be said about how we don't have to flip the CW just to figure out what's going on.

I would like to think Araris is Village but I usually want him to be Village anyway so RIP.

Real quick, does it mean anything special when you put a name in bold? 

[Kasimir]

21 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Real quick, does it mean anything special when you put a name in bold? 

Not in the game. I'm just bolding it because sometimes I want the names to jump out in a wall of text.

Edited to add: Especially if it's a player I'm offering an opinion on or want to draw attention to!

Edited March 31, 2023 by Kasimir

[Ashbringer]

If I'm going to be a discussion black hole then voting me out might be an idea, but I'd wager I can still be useful. 

Is there a reason for voting for Xino besides just general activity? I could go there, or go TJ/Alpha. Alpha in particular seems... more concerned with things than I'd expect a new player to be.