Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

11 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

This feels like TMI, but in all honestly it's probably just new playerness. Still don't really want to write it off, so I'll make a note of it.

How would it be TMI?

[The Wandering Wizard]

6 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

How would it be TMI?

Because you assumed that Kas was the elim kill. Which he most likely was because of his overall village read but it's not necessarily what happened. Mostly the level of certainty I felt from it.

[Araris Valerian]

21 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

"I'm not a fan of his response on his elim tells" So? That's not actually a reason to suspect me or vote me.

Hmm, I disagree. I think elims tend to be more defensive and unwilling to accept that the village has actually found them, or say that whatever reason a villager is using is actually something that should be NAI. So it’s actually the nature of your response, rather than the tells themselves, that is pinging me wrong.

In regards to you being LHF, sure, but how do we tell the difference between an elim jumping on something versus a villager actually detecting an elim? That’s what discussion and back-and-forth are for. Which is the whole thing I was trying to encourage with my previous post, as opposed to people just dropping a vote and leaving.

My take on D1 is that Ash and Xino were the only players actually under pressure. Usually trains consolidate by the end of D1, with the exed player having around 4 votes, and anything less than that is pretty safe. This is something you (and everyone else) are free to disagree with, but it’s how I’m currently understanding the cycle, and why I disagree with your response to JNV.

Lastly, on reread my previous post was worded more strongly than I intended, and I apologize. I’m not trying to attack your character, I just don’t find your play thus far to be convincingly village.

[Ashbringer]

I’m also in a PoE case right now. I trust me, and I’m going to trust Araris for now if only because if we exe him the thread may die. That leaves TKN, Alpha, Telrao, Wiz, JNV, Elandera, and TJ. And of those seven, I know one who is Cord (again, if the real Cord is the one who shot Kas, please stand up), and another who at least didn’t put a Kill in N1 when I roleblocked them. Then I have a few other reasons to look at TKN specifically over the others.

I’d be willing to look more at TJ though. Would make sense for the Elims to have a role, even if TJ can prove he isn’t submitting kills.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

I’m… I don’t really trust anyone or anything… so yeah, I’m sheeping. But hey, I’ll do something totally original! (aka not that original, but whatever.) Imma go with my gut. TKN JNV. Argh! I don’t know. This is my first normal game. I played QF65 (GMed by Araris) and those rules were very different. It was a blast! 

Spoiler

Now I wait for everyone to theorize about why I’m doing this, and I’m going to rack up about 30 votes.

 

[Elandera]

• Araris Valerian (2): Telrao, The Known Novel
• The Known Novel (3): Araris Valerian, JNV, Ashbringer
• TheAlpha929 (1): The Wandering Wizard
• JNV (1): The Alpha929
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Elandera

I've done some more reviewing, and I still get bad vibes from Wizard's voting patterns. 

[|TJ|]

Work has really kept me from a re-read, sigh. 

@Ashbringer,

1. Kas asked me for a PM with you.
2. I made a PM with Araris, figuring I could solve his slot better after we played together as village in the endgame last game. @Araris Valerian should be able to confirm.

I'm going to vote here on Alpha, I really think they've been suspicious in their posting and I dislike them voting alongside Araris last cycle to voting with him to retracting the vote on the slightest push back. 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

25 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I'm going to vote here on Alpha, I really think they've been suspicious in their posting and I dislike them voting alongside Araris last cycle to voting with him to retracting the vote on the slightest push back. 

Ohhh you’re right that does look very suspicious  At the moment I am keeping my vote on JNV 

Edited April 4, 2023 by TheAlpha929
I said “doesn’t” instead of “does”

[Mat]

Time!

[Mat]

LG93: Night Three: Just Keep Swimming

For forty days, (or only three)

The Wandersail has sailed the sea

Six crew are lost, Nikli still is free

But still that ship did go

The Known Novel was removed! He was an Expeditioner!

Night Three has begun! It will end in about 24 hours, on Wednesday, April 5th, at 8am PDT.

Vote Count:

• Araris Valerian (2): Telrao, The Known Novel
• The Known Novel (3): Araris Valerian, JNV, Ashbringer
• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, |TJ|
• JNV (1): TheAlpha929
• The Wandering Wizard (1): Elandera

Take note of the following:

• A reminder that you can call on the services of our IM, @StrikerEZ, for any concerns you may have during the game.
• Don't forget to submit any actions or PM requests!
• There is an inactivity filter in play, of two turns. Failure to post for the duration of N3 and D4 will result in removal or replacement.
• The rules doc can be found here.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. The Known Novel - Tekkin - Expeditioner
2. Archer - Ene Seattle - Expeditioner
3. _Stick_ - Stick - Expeditioner
4. @TheAlpha929 - Kaust Joshe
5. @Araris Valerian - rather lost
6. Kasimir - Keshek - Rysn
7. @Telrao - Mewlnir
8. @Ashbringer - AraRaash
9. @The Wandering Wizard - Raven Beak
10. xinoehp512 - Expeditioner
11. @JNV - Jack
12. Devotary of Spontaneity / @Elandera - Ykld, Rhwm, and Vrodn
13. @|TJ| - Tark
14. Sart - Star Guy - Expeditioner

 

Edited April 5, 2023 by StrikerEZ

[|TJ|]

@Cord, if you're village I advise extreme caution. If there are three elims, you mis-shoot and we lose. 

If Cord is evil, then it's likely 2-5 and we have D4 as LyLo. 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Phew this is coming down to the wire. My guess is the elim team consists of Araris, Wiz, and JNV.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Phew this is coming down to the wire. My guess is the elim team consists of Araris, Wiz, and JNV.

I'm pretty sure either TJ or Ash is elim. If not, that would mean the village has all 3 of Rushu, Rsyn, and Lopen. I extremely doubt that the elims have both Cord and Huio (we almost certainly lose if this is the case), so your proposed elim team gives the village 4/5 roles in the game. The only possible way that is balanced is with e!Cord, who I'm fairly sure isn't in your list there. Could be wrong about that though.

I'm thinking one of TJ/Ash is elim, either you or Telrao is elim, and then I'm honestly not sure who the last one could be. Elandera didn't really do a whole lot last cycle, despite giving me a good first impression. Wiz has kinda worn out the benefit I've given him from his D1 voting, and while I still think he doesn't pair well with TJ or Alpha, he could be on a Wiz/Telrao/Ash team. I've never been any good at reading JNV, he's just kinda sitting in a dead spot in my analysis. I think I'm inclined not to vote for him though.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

38 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm pretty sure either TJ or Ash is elim. If not, that would mean the village has all 3 of Rushu, Rsyn, and Lopen. I extremely doubt that the elims have both Cord and Huio (we almost certainly lose if this is the case), so your proposed elim team gives the village 4/5 roles in the game. The only possible way that is balanced is with e!Cord, who I'm fairly sure isn't in your list there. Could be wrong about that though.

I'm thinking one of TJ/Ash is elim, either you or Telrao is elim, and then I'm honestly not sure who the last one could be. Elandera didn't really do a whole lot last cycle, despite giving me a good first impression. Wiz has kinda worn out the benefit I've given him from his D1 voting, and while I still think he doesn't pair well with TJ or Alpha, he could be on a Wiz/Telrao/Ash team. I've never been any good at reading JNV, he's just kinda sitting in a dead spot in my analysis. I think I'm inclined not to vote for him though.

Oh, what you said about the roles was definitely an oversight of mine. Okay, so that comes down to who do I think is most likely one of the bad guys, and I don’t know. Probably TJ

[Elandera]

I'm definitely still leaning towards an Ash/Wiz team. If nothing else, I do believe Ash as Lopen makes most sense as an elim. Yes, yes, I know I just said not to clear or accuse based on role alone, but it's a few things in combination with the role.

One thing I've seen again and again is a tendency for elims to vote on their teammates, but never actually stay there. Wiz had done this a couple of times in D1 and D2 (the most common place for this type of elim activity). I'm willing to throw TJ into this group conditionally for the same reasons, however some of his jumping appears to have been from self-preservation votes.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Guys, we can’t let it die just because kas is dead. I get that night cycles are pretty chill, but… nobody has anything to say? 

So, time to theorize!

Assuming that there are 3 elims, and among them there are probably 2 roles. My guess (that pretty much everyone has said) is that either Lopen (Ash) or Rushu (TJ). I also think that the other role would be Huio. Does anyone think it would be Cord? Honestly having the Herdazians on a team would be hilarious, and almost too good to be true. But it really boils down to this: e!Ash vs. e!TJ. Does anybody have any thoughts?

[Araris Valerian]

5 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Assuming that there are 3 elims, and among them there are probably 2 roles. My guess (that pretty much everyone has said) is that either Lopen (Ash) or Rushu (TJ). I also think that the other role would be Huio. Does anyone think it would be Cord? Honestly having the Herdazians on a team would be hilarious, and almost too good to be true. But it really boils down to this: e!Ash vs. e!TJ. Does anybody have any thoughts?

It's hard to say. Ash managed to survive D1 without ever being out of the lead in votes, and then we haven't successfully revisited him. He also hasn't really made a convincing attempt at solving the game. But you could say similar things about TJ. I'm still leaning village on you, which makes me not as happy about TJ's vote last cycle.

But mechanically, I feel like Rushu is more of a village role and Lopen is more of an elim role. With this small of a game, the elims losing a player to the NK would be pretty devastating, and the roleblock is actually more useful to them than Huio would be, since I'm pretty sure most of us have been considering a v!Cord e!Huio world. So when a player survives a NK, it becomes pretty likely that they are elim (Just like in the AG ). But a roleblocked kill doesn't implicate anyone on their team.

I do have a PM with TJ as of D3, so it's possible he'll say something in there that will convince me one way or the other.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Did Mat choose who got what role, or was it random? And the same question about alignment 

[Elandera]

31 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Did Mat choose who got what role, or was it random? And the same question about alignment 

It is standard for things to be decided mostly by RNG, but for balance, things are usually adjusted. Such as if RNG had given the elims Cord, Lopen and Huio, that would have been extremely unbalanced in favor of the elims. Even simply giving them Cord is a bit of an imbalance because with the village blindness, even having Lopen and Huio isn't really enough to counter two nightly kills in such a small game.

My request to Cord is to hit Ash tonight. That may lead to some IKYKs since it's not really known if Cord actually attacked or was blocked. I think there's a good possibility that Cord wasn't blocked last night and held off on their action because the player list is already small.

Also, I don't think Ash and TJ have to necessarily be on opposite teams, especially with those vote patterns.

[Telrao]

*sniffs*

Well this is fun!

So we've lost only expeditioners so far - including Rysn (Kasimir). Now there are only 8 people left. *sigh* Of whom there would potentially be 2-3 elims. So we have at least another cycle or two IF they ONLY kill expeditioners and we meet equality=loss. So if we manage to take out an elim, we buy more time to figure out who it is, and find a strand to pull on. So uh...yeee. 

I don't know what I'm doing ahhhhhhhhhh

[Araris Valerian]

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

Also, I don't think Ash and TJ have to necessarily be on opposite teams, especially with those vote patterns.

Oh yeah. For some reason I was thinking one of them needed to be village, but it's really that it just doesn't make sense if they both are. I will say that if Ash and TJ are both elim then Wiz likely isn't.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Then who's Huio? I had been assuming Huio was bad, and I would be surprised if there were three roles on a three elim team, assuming there are three of them. If there were only two then it would make sense for them both to have roles. 

[Ashbringer]

Huio's been essentially silent. Which is good if they've been actually protecting people, but them being the only role that we've heard nothing from is somewhat alarming. E!Huio versus the other roles would be decently balanced on a larger Elim team. I don't know if I have an evil read on TJ. Sometimes I can pin down e!TJ pretty well, but sometimes not.

Cord, I think is someone that I can trust. But from my perspective Cord NKing me with me doing nothing is a death sentence both for me and the game, especially with E!Huio. And I'd really rather try and RB the Elim Kill rather than RB Cord to save my own skin. 

 

[JNV]

So were at 5 3 one more false death and we lose if Cord wants to be a hero I mean I honestly dont feel like any of us have any solid leads beyond the at least one of Ashbringer TJ evil idea so yeah do what you think is best 

[Mat]

Time!