Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[JNV]

Ok another low temp cycle and coincidentally enough my sortof kind of hesitant village reads are on the pile so just looking at my nos for today Im not down for Alpha ish like I dont feel like the Stick kill happens in evil Alpha world but also I wouldnt be opposed sort of ish Ashbringer also a for now I dont really see the way D1 went down with evil Lopen Ashbringer maybe evil regular Ashbringer but then why the lie next Kasimir Im never down for Kasimir theyre best PM buddy and thats going to get me killed one day but thats fine everyone else is a blob of mush and thats concerning cause with how low energy everything is it honestly feels like the evils are hidnig in the blob of mush so the blob is Novel Araris Telrao Wizard xinoehp Devotary TJ for me  Novel seems weirdly fixated on being in POE but honestly my brain always thinks novels hmm so its whatever there the only other person that stands out from the mush is xinoehp for this post

On 3/30/2023 at 1:11 PM, xinoehp512 said:

Alpha (1): Wizard
TJ (2): Araris, Alpha
Wizard (1): Xino

I will vote Wizard: I'm suspicious of his last-minute move from Ash to Alpha, and suspect there might be ulterior motives at play. (i.e. e!Ash). Definitely not opposed to a TJ exe though.

Edit: Alpha's vote for TJ is sheepy, but like I said last cycle, never too early to sheep >:)

 

They think Wizard is suspicious because it implies evil Ashbringer and vote Wizard not Ashbringer and that doesnt really make sense to me cause their logic says evil Wizard is predicated on evil Ashbringer so why vote Wizard it feels weird honestly not sure about this but xinoehp might change it after the reread but thats my brain for now heres a quokka picture that reflects my mood right now

Spoiler

 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Alpha in particular seems... more concerned with things than I'd expect a new player to be.

If I understand what you’re saying correctly, thank you? Other than the fact that you’re saying you might want to vote me out because of it, which I do respect. If I was playing against me, I’d be scared too 

Also it’s possible that I missed the point of what you were saying completely. 

I need to finish some stuff irl, but I’ll be on soon to get some thoughts out of my brain and onto the virtual page.

Edited March 31, 2023 by TheAlpha929
Added the phrase “because of it” for clarification and smoothness of reading.

[Ashbringer]

2 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

If I understand what you’re saying correctly, thank you? Other than the fact that you’re saying you might want to vote me out, which I do respect. If I was playing against me, I’d be scared too 

Also it’s possible that I missed the point of what you were saying completely. 

I need to finish some stuff irl, but I’ll be on soon to get some thoughts out of my brain and onto the virtual page.

I mean both concerned with as in being engaged, which is unusual but good, but also concerned with as in... concerned? Don't know how to put it. More worried about things.

But reading a newer player is always kinda weird, and I'm... definitely not one to judge on new-player-playstyles 

[Kasimir]

Now that I've had some sleep, to clarify what I'm getting at:

13 hours ago, Kasimir said:

See partial reconstruction of notes. Every player who has ever voted on you D1 includes: <Xino, Araris, me, TJ, Wiz, Alpha.> There's a lot of hopping on and off and very little defending.

The issue IMO is that there was a lot of movement, sure, but it was repeat movement.

People who stayed on Ash: <Xino, Araris, Alpha>

(They may have moved off later, but there's some vote stability.)

People who moved on and off Ash: <TJ, me, Wiz>

These people voted Ash, unvoted Ash, and then revoted Ash at some point.

Vote stability isn't a smoking gun but I feel that it's an indicator of something going on - people keep pointing to the fact there's a lot of volatility and CWs being offered. There's two main diagnoses I can see for the C1 vote patterns:

1. E!Ash, and people were looking for side-trains to splinter the vote.

Ok. But then who? Our main side-trains appear to be started by:

Sart (TJ), Stick (TKN, but too many), Archer (Telrao, and then Sart), me (too many), Telrao (me, stacked up on Xino, then went Alpha), Alpha (everywhere, then Archer), Araris (+1 Telrao, TJ), TKN (Stick.)

Someone @ me if there's a name I missed but that's my analysis. Devo +1ed the Araris train FWIW, as Ash flagged. The thing is I'm starting to agree with Devo's analysis so...w00ts for my Devo read IDFK what's going on anymore.

The problem is that it's hard trying to find a viable partner for Ash among trainstarters.

• Sart, Stick, Archer flipped  so that's predominantly . I'm Vikemon!
• Alpha could theoretically be a partner due to how chaotically Alpha was switching votes, which smells of train fishing, but as with Telrao (more weakly), some of Alpha's posts do read more Village, and it's hard to see an Elim team being down with that much chaosplay. Stick makes the same argument here:
   

  Quote

  You're implying that:

  1. e!Alpha first says something vague and suspicious like 'I have secret reasons for this vote that I decided 4 pages ago' when they don't actually have a reason but just really want to vote there - maybe they didn't consult the doc before doing this and that's fair enough cuz they're new to this

  2. e!Alpha's teammates see that post and go 'yeah just say you'll explain it later' instead of helping him come up with plausible justifications

  3. Later when someone asks for the explanation, e!Alpha just goes 'ask me after the game' and their teammates say well done

  I have trouble seeing an elim team that doesn't try to coach e!Alpha through this. Maybe they were all consistently absent from the doc.

   
  IDK. I disagreed with her then but I have to admit it's hard to make a coherent case as well. Archer backs up this argument as well:
   

  Quote

  I've been wary of them for a similar reason, but I'm leaning village on them. I don't see why they'd burn their plausible deniability card by acknowledging they're taking advantage of their newness. It's also a risky playstyle in a game with a CS.

   Again, I don't disagree. I dislike chaosplay in that I think chaosplayers tend to have to walk a line between having fun and alienating their own team. From a Village perspective, chaosplay makes a player hard to read and it makes it hard for me to do my job. So there's that. But all of that being said, I think that's a decent set of points I'm willing to rule out Alpha as a prospective partner for now. The same point is milder for Telrao: Telrao votes on the Xino CW at a point when Ash is dominant, and also can appear to be trainfishing, but I'm not sure how passive even busy!E!Ash goes with Telrao as a teammate. Almost certainly requires a third stabilising teammate, but then who? Most of my candidates for those are dead, and I don't know if I think an Araris/Ash team works. More on that later. So soft ruleout for Telrao, but not a hard case against E!Telrao. The fact that Telrao expresses suspicions of Xino and Alpha in terms of inactivity and volatility makes me sort of positive? Telrao does park that vote (a negative, especially given lack of responsiveness to Alpha's explanation), but this is a novel (and somewhat less optimal, and in Xino's case, untrue) ground of suspicion makes me think E!Telrao would've gotten better support or just sheeped. NOT SURE, WOULD LIKE OPINIONS ON THIS. AND BASICALLY EVERYTHING.
   
• TKN doesn't feel like a good partner in this world. Stable vote on Stick, which was just not going to take off as a CW. It's possible TKN overestimated his case, but I feel like TKN could've gone for a more realistic CW.
   
• Devo voting for Araris and choosing not to stack onto TJ or Wiz with that heating up is a Take. You could argue she was trying a new CW, but Araris hadn't really taken? Similar argument to TKN alongside the fact she is choosing to ignore the TJ/Wiz fracas where she could've had a more viable CW to save Ash. It's true E!Devo buses quite a bit but IDK. I also feel E!Devo would've stepped in earlier, but don't feel as strongly about this. Note that Devo does defend Ash by highlighting that the Ash arguments don't make much sense.
   

But at the end of all these considerations: then who is Ash's partner? Sure, the team is likely a team of three, but if we can't even really ID a viable partner, there's a problem here. I don't feel JNV is a good take because E!JNV wouldn't have peaced out if Ash came under pressure.

2. V!Ash, and the Elims were hiding in stable votes.

This line of thought takes as the starting point that a large amount of heat/movement was still generated by the <Stick, Archer, Kas, Alpha, Wiz> set, with a Telrao/TJ side, which - if you think Alpha is Village as I currently do, just causes massive coherence problems with this picture.

As I've been saying repeatedly, I think the main problem with the E!TJ arguments is that there's no real reason for TJ not to go onto Sart and make a weird probability argument about Ash. It's early in the cycle, it attracts attention, and it's such an unusual position to take. There's no particular incentive for TJ to want to kill Ash unless he's partnered with Xino. There's a weak argument against a TJ/Xino E/E team and that has to do with the fact that TJ mentioned a gut suspicion of Xino early on but didn't follow it by voting. I do feel it could be a cheap distancing vote, so am surprised TJ didn't make it, but that isn't a strong point against the viability of E!TJ, especially since TJ didn't follow up and subsequently defended Xino against both Ash and Sart, and adopted a 'Xino is the CW to Ash' view which...can be weird. I do think that if TJ is Evil, it's most likely with Xino.

V!Ash makes E!Wiz seem a bit weird. Wiz hopping off Ash, in this world, is explained by the fact Wiz knows it's a bad train, and doesn't want to incriminate himself...but then he also goes back to the Ash train later on! We could say E!Wiz saw the opportunity presented by V!Xino, but then he didn't bother to clarify it! He expresses his reason for voting Xino as 'gut and sheeping' but doesn't bother to really push the knife home, which IMO is just odd. It's true you can't expect optimal Elim play in analysis but I do feel that E!Wiz realising V!Xino is a good scapegoat and then not really bothering to tear Xino a new one doesn't really seem coherent. (You'd also expect E!Wiz to vote Alpha instead - why not? Reacting to Alpha but voting Ash is weird and gets him sus for it. In V!Ash world, E!Wiz is making a vote he knows will get him sus when Ash flips...and then he retracts it anyway. This is just messy play for E!Wiz that doesn't seem to make sense with Wiz's motivations. I don't think it's very plausible.

In stable vote world, we'd be looking in JNV, TKN, Araris, Telrao, Xino, Devo as potential partners. I'll handle Xino and Devo last for reasons that will be clear in a bit.

• JNV - Basically, I expect E!JNV to park a poke vote.
   
• TKN - Candidate here. TKN does make a comment on Sart, for which he gets some credit, but has done nothing that can exclude him from PoE, and focus on personal image and not the main discussion skews closer to E!TKN in play.
   
• Araris - Accept he had RL but doesn't change the vote stability issue. It does make his last minute call for votes on TJ look weird - I could see an Araris/TJ team though I think it's slightly unlikely and probably wouldn't mind being converted to such a team because BROs before alignment but whatever I've got a job here and that's to bring them down if they be Evil. But there are factors to consider, like that late vote solicitation from Araris - vote solicitation is always risky and demonstrates confidence. Fundamentally: I don't feel super alright clearing Araris but I like his posts. I have a history of wanting Araris to be Village and being very generous in reading him, so don't feel ok removing him from PoE and think there's a moderate possibility he works as Evil in this world. (Araris/Xino/TJ anyone?) Part of this is also back to Archer's reasoning - I agree that it's likely that at most one of the trains in the five-way on D1 is Evil. Too many and we should have seen more overt action. If I squint, maybe two. This means: <Ash, Araris, Alpha, TJ, Sart.> In this world, we are assuming that Ash is Village. Alpha is a decent Village candidate. Which means at most both Araris/TJ are Evil, or one of the two. Between the two, I currently feel I have more reason to V!read TJ barring a TJ/Xino team, which brings me to an E!Araris world as a possibility.
   
• Telrao - Another candidate consistent with V!Ash. But see my comments on Telrao and suspicions. Not sure how much I believe in E!Telrao but it's possible.
   
• Devo - Question of where Devo's subsequent V!Ash certainty comes from, and Devo doubling a vote up on Araris has the dgaf energy an Elim would on D1. Does imply V!Araris. Devo's D1 post does assume E!Ash, it's worth noting. It feels a bit artificially restricted, which makes me wonder yet again about a Devo/Ash team but that's properly in the section upstairs. Either way, Devo fits in both worlds IMO.
   

• Quote

  Why did so many people vote for Ash? That doesn't make a lot of sense given his few posts. @TheAlpha929 what were your reasons? Xino follows Kas but doesn't like Wiz's switch. Araris wanted to vote for someone who already had a vote. Kas preferred killing Ash to xino  which isn't the pressing concern now. TJ just thinkg e!Ash ->e!Wiz + v!Xino. The people who voted Ash then retracted are more likely evil than those who stayed if Ash is evil or they didn't want a runaway train on a villager since nobody else has been in serious danger. I think it's worth noting here that this is similar energy to the point I'm making in #1: that if Ash is Evil, we're probably looking at vote movements surrounding Ash. I don't feel most vote movements off Ash make that much sense as being Evil. But Devo is largely looking at E!Ash worlds. But I say similar because Devo isn't really interested in movements surrounding Ash, which is a point of interest in an E!Ash world.

  So Wiz, TJ, Araris. TJ and Wiz are voting for each other. Don't think Telrao's vote for Xino was very safe since so many people showed up to criticize it, so not sure about Araris's vote. I'll go with Araris then.  TJ and Wiz can sort themselves out. I won't be around for rollover. Not going to do anything with RP characters either since they keep slipping away from their intended characteristics.

   
   
• Xino - The kicker here is I can see a V/E world for V!Ash / E!Xino, and a V/V world. In an E!Xino world, it explains the stability of the Ash train, which is a place I point to the fact that TJ/Araris/Xino can be viable, though it requires all of them to have CWed on Ash, which is...extreme. It also explains Xino's subsequent vote stability - Xino parks that vote on Araris, indicates a potential Wiz vote, and checks out for good. The problem is that being baity doesn't functionally matter if you're not doing the analytical work subsequently. In a V/V world, we're looking at off-train stable votes, in which case, the entire section above. FWIW, I don't think E!TJ works except with E!Xino. The main voters on Xino were <Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha>. Two things to be said here: (A) If you're leaning V on Alpha and Wiz as I currently am, then there's decent purity on a Xino train, and the Xino trainstarter is Village, which just makes me think that the Xino train is a candidate for having found an Elim D1. (B) I think Xino's reasoning on Wiz is just weird - Wiz being Evil by that line of reasoning is equally possible, but Xino is choosing to solely focus on the vote switch off Xino which happened even before Rollovet and to disregard that any Villager could also question why the f Xino chose to +4 a vote on Ash that early. That does feel like Xino trying to construct a train on purpose rather than actually find an Elim. It could be a struggling Villager, but given that Xino is raising Wiz as a TJ CW, I am inclined to go back to my E!TJ/E!Xino theory. @Ashbringer you asked.

Stick has offered 3.: This is an E!Ash possibility. The Elims didn't want to compromise themselves (we can factor in an inactive team here) so just sort of didn't do much. I don't disagree this is a possibility but don't usually feel comfortable accepting this because this leads us into CC* territory for voting which tends to be exceptionally bad Village-wise. I'd rather we get evidence that this is going on, whether through post analysis or vote analysis, then hit #3 as compared to shooting CC off the bat.

Quote

*For newer players, I mentioned CC earlier and I should probably disambiguate because I'm referring to two different CCs here.

cc1: In Ash's context, I'm referring to counterclaims - the idea that since named roles aren't unique, if Ash were really not Lopen, then someone should have counterclaimed against Ash and gotten him killed. There's a world in which Ash is Evil and claimed Lopen and a teammate is actually Lopen, but that's a Rsyn problem.

cc2: Contribution Crusade. This is a thing that people used to do where we just voted out quiet and non-contributing players. Sometimes, those players are Evil. Sometimes, they aren't, and keelhauling the quiet non-contributors creates an environment where Elims can blend in and appear helpful with low effort votes on quiet players.

FAQ at this point: "But isn't this what is happening?"

Yes and no. Voting to kill =/= voting out. Voting pressure is helpful in play as it demonstrates player priorities. cc2 created an environment where you could just park a vote on a lower active, call it a day, and sign out. Very little information of use.

As @Araris Valerian tends to say, your vote is your weapon. Especially in games like this, where practically all of us are regulars, it's our main superpower. So use it wisely!

Oh and FWIW: Rysn isn't Evil. That distro is dead.

I encourage Huio and Cord to stay silent. Y'all have roles that actually do things. But I don't really matter and thought it's worth clearing things up.

Hi. I'm Vikemon Rysn. AMA  

The colours don't mean anything in terms of the blue/aqua highlights FWIW. I just want things to stand out and colour picker is hard.

[Ashbringer]

Tineye gambit it is then.

I’m okay on Xino.

[Kasimir]

15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Tineye gambit it is then.

?

Edited to add:

Disclaimer/caveat: I admit I am known to go 'easy' on players I genuinely enjoy playing with like Araris/TJ. In LG83, despite order of evidence pointing to flipping Araris first, then Bip, I insisted on flipping Bip then Araris.

I can't rule out that I'm doing the same thing here, psychologically.

I am definitely reluctant to flip TJ. My reasoning is as follows:

(1) TJ's Ash vote over Sart case doesn't make sense for E!TJ unless E!TJ is protecting E!Xino. Therefore, if Xino flips E, then that's damning for TJ. On top of that, TJ slipped from gut suspicion of Xino to thinking Xino is the Village CW to Ash. I feel like a reasonable response to Xino's fourth vote is actually to be a little more suspicious beyond just gut sus?

TJ's shifts in views here: 

Quote

Also, gut evil xino. There's always one poke-vote in every game that seems so off to me. 

Quote

Anyone jumping on xino after my initially gut evil read of them, I suspect. That's Sart and Wiz. 

Quote

Basically e!Ash would lead to e!Wiz. And I feel like xino is being bought up as a counter against Ash, so e!Ash would also lead to v!Xino. These are the conditionals I was talking about. The square bracket is a separate point mentioning that I've noticed there's an elim that comes under fire and gains traction in the first half of the first cycle and it eventually falls off because players say along the lines of "something's wrong" and then we don't really recall the player being under fire at all until mid-end game. I feel like this is happening here. 

(2) think there's other reason to suspect Xino, with regard to Xino's E!Wiz case and the stable vote. The fact Xino proposed a countertrain that's protective of TJ is indicative of a connection the other way as well IMO. (What players say is one thing. What they do is another. A player's votes reflect their priorities IMO.)

(3) It is possible for Xino to be Evil on a team that doesn't include TJ. (I can sort of see Xino and Araris, for instance, without necessarily TJ as a third member. Araris slips from sus of Xino (leaving in the possibility vote explosion is going on) to mild V on Xino and I think that's worth looking at.) I think it's harder for TJ to be Evil on a team that doesn't include Xino.

Note: Speaking of Araris's vote explosion post, I agree with Stick it's a good look for Araris. So that gets a weak  and a shrug from me.

Someone @ me if I'm being dishonest with myself here - this is important because of LG83 and I need to not be voting because I'm distorting evidential priority to save TJ. But that's where I'm at. I think the case for E!TJ only really makes sense in light of E!Xino. And there's reason to think Xino is  so evidential priority suggests Xino -> TJ.

I think one could argue that TJ was trying to frame Xino. But I keep going back to this:

Quote

I'm more suspicious of Sart than Ash as I feel like the whole "Really? I'd like to be proven wrong" comes off as artificial and though the sole Ash post leans towards his evil meta, I don't really get a stronger opinion from the post. But I'm voting for Ash as I feel the conditionals [early vote spike and the ultimate fall-off which we do not reconsider till like D4] here make him more likely to be evil. 

Why go for Ash here?

There's literally no reason to. And yet he tortures the post into going for Ash. You could argue train explosion but remember, Wiz just hopped off Ash. There is no need to try to re-stack the Ash train to get people to go off E!Ash - that's nonsensical for E!TJ. If he wanted to protect Ash, there's Xino, or the very natural Sart vote he flags. But instead, he votes Ash.

Why?

IMO, only two possibilities here, given the rest of TJ's behaviour.

(A) V!TJ
(B) TJ/Xino E/E - E!TJ defensive of E!Xino.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Kasimir

[Telrao]

18 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I mean we play the game how we want to, as long as it's fun for you, that's good. There's something to be said about having fun and helping your team - Village or otherwise - but still, if RPing it is more fun for you, you should. (This isn't to license complete chaosplay that makes players struggle to read you, but again, RPing is cool.)

Mewlnir pushed back the sleeves of her shirt, pulling the small mug of mead closer to her with her paws. She nodded at Kasimir in agreement, then sighed tiredly.

"Three of our companions slain. I don't have any clear ideas as of yet, but would like to put forward a couple of theories. I am not very familiar with this game, nor am I familiar with its players. Nikli is still out there, and only expeditioners have been killed. That means there is a higher concentration of hoardlings amongst us, and, therefore, more of a chance that Expeditioners will be drowned if the hoardlings plot against us." She took a sip of mead, then continued. "Now I don't know about you, but I am suspicious of a couple folk around here."

She pointed to Araris. "This rather lost person has not spoken very much during this past day and night. And in addition, has only contributed minimal votes. I would like to know why he has not said more, or theorized at all. Is this a hoardling strategy? Hiding in the shadows, avoiding eyes?"

She picked up her mug and downed the rest of it, licking the foam off of her chops. "Initially, I was suspicious of Xino, but have begun to rethink that. Ash, at the moment, would be a logical choice - considering the points that Kasimir has proposed. Then again, my gut tells me that Ash is innocent. For now, I won't change my vote Alpha, of whom I am still suspicious." Mewlnir gave Alpha a long sideeye, then jumped up and began to sniff out another mug of mead.

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, Telrao said:

She pointed to Araris. "This rather lost person has not spoken very much during this past day and night. And in addition, has only contributed minimal votes. I would like to know why he has not said more, or theorized at all. Is this a hoardling strategy? Hiding in the shadows, avoiding eyes?"

"I am sitting on my porch the deck out in the open!" Araris placed a hand lightly on the hilt at his side. "My intentions are true as my blade, which I suggest you give me no cause to turn against you."

There are lots of folks that I'm fine exeing this cycle, and I've got a vote on one of them. Like I said earlier, I consider Kas, Alpha, and Wiz off limits for now, but don't have a strong village feel for anyone else. I might switch my vote to Ash because of a lack of solving + defensive attitude last cycle combined with it being useful to know his alignment for figuring out the D1 votes. It does seem like Ash/xino/TJ are all related in that flipping any one of them elim would be fairly useful in determining the alignments of the other two: e!TJ implies v!Ash and e!xino, e!Ash implies v!TJ, and e!xino would suggest that one of TJ or Ash is elim. I have preference toward exeing Ash or TJ to help resolve the tie from D1, but we could look elsewhere and hope that Cord is willing to help out in that department

[Kasimir]

15 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

"I am sitting on my porch the deck out in the open!" Araris placed a hand lightly on the hilt at his side. "My intentions are true as my blade, which I suggest you give me no cause to turn against you."

There are lots of folks that I'm fine exeing this cycle, and I've got a vote on one of them. Like I said earlier, I consider Kas, Alpha, and Wiz off limits for now, but don't have a strong village feel for anyone else. I might switch my vote to Ash because of a lack of solving + defensive attitude last cycle combined with it being useful to know his alignment for figuring out the D1 votes. It does seem like Ash/xino/TJ are all related in that flipping any one of them elim would be fairly useful in determining the alignments of the other two: e!TJ implies v!Ash and e!xino, e!Ash implies v!TJ, and e!xino would suggest that one of TJ or Ash is elim. I have preference toward exeing Ash or TJ to help resolve the tie from D1, but we could look elsewhere and hope that Cord is willing to help out in that department

Few counterpoints:

-Am wary of default lynch the CW. If player is readable, then is default playing into Elim hands. Don't disagree Ash isn't straightforwardly readable as Village at this point though. 

-Unclear why TJ or Ash resolves D1. Logical choice is between Ash and Xino given nonsensical protectiveness of Xino and your own commitments to the purity of the Xino train: Sart, Wiz, Alpha. Bracketing Telrao for now. Villagers not necessarily right but high Village CW lends some credence to idea this might be where Elim is hiding. 

-Unclear why E!Xino points to E!Ash. E!xino had no reason to keep vote parked on E!Ash. Xino's claim about baiting defenders backing his vote on Wiz would have licensed an unvote, removing E!Ash from danger. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Leaning village on Alpha. No reason to think Wizard and Ash are evil at this time. Voting on Araris again as last post of the game.

[Kasimir]

31 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Leaning village on Alpha. No reason to think Wizard and Ash are evil at this time. Voting on Araris again as last post of the game.

Take care!

12 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edited by me for updates

• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, Telrao
• |TJ| (2): Araris Valerian, TheAlpha929
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Ashbringer (1): |TJ|
• xinoehp512 (3): Kasimir, JNV, Ash
• Araris (1): Devo

I'm...not prima facie opposed to the Araris or TJ trains but they're not my first choice. As I've argued, I don't think either of them make a compelling team with E!Ash, but could see TJ teamed with Xino (hard to form a coherent team there otherwise), and could see Araris teamed with Xino or potentially with someone in the TKN ballpark.

I'm not really picking up much of a coherent team.

1. @The Wandering Wizard - Why Alpha? At this point, who's your top three suspects?

2. @Devotary of Spontaneity - If you lean Village on Alpha, then do you have a compromise candidate or a stronger case for E!Araris? I can be persuaded to swap to Araris. I note that while Xino is in the lead right now, Alpha stands a decent chance of getting keelhauled. (Ignore if you can't.)

3. @|TJ| - I know you're busy with work, but am starting to have serious doubts about your alignment and would like to hear from you.

Edited to add:

4. @Ashbringer - Any chance you could work some of that NKA magic or just anything more to go on?

Edited April 1, 2023 by Kasimir

[xinoehp512]

I'm going to go to bed now, so... self-pres!

Wizard TJ

[Kasimir]

Really wish TJ would get the f on because it's bloody hard to make a good call by keelhauling in absentia. 

Willingness to self-pres on TJ instead of Alpha a decent look, damaged by unwillingness to engage with thread and lack of interest in solving. Survival at all costs is pointless if you aren't remotely interested in helping your team. 

[|TJ|]

Sorry, I'm nursing a terrible headache. I've been asleep the entire day.

I'll eat something and brb. I'll try to catch up, but staring at the screen is only flaring it up so, I'm not sure if I can. 

 

 

 

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

Sorry, I'm nursing a terrible headache. I've been asleep the entire day.

I'll eat something and brb. I'll try to catch up, but staring at the screen is only flaring it up so, I'm not sure if I can. 

 

 

 

Low key want to . Feels like E!TJ would've been yelled at by his team in doc to just show up and self-pres - more or less what Xino did. Not saying it's necessarily Evil to self-pres but that I expect E!TJ to be more caught up, cf. E!Mat's short caps segments in LG92 to Steel and Tani. But also, gws bhai.

• Stray thought I had about Ash - Ash does stand an increased chance, if , of being able to stop the Elim kill when numbers get low, which means that there's probably vested interest in making us keelhaul Ash if Ash is . Of course, if Ash is , then that's the play they'd be running with to explain Ash's survival. Cord if  throws a spanner into the works since Cord could theoretically just execute Ash. Not really sure if the team would factor that in, since execute the CW is a known tactic, and they couldn't hope to defend against it except/unless Huio is 
   
• Not a fan of the complacency this cycle - low temperature might suggest that we're quite far off. Vote stability was fairly high until I proposed Xino, at which point we just have two non-voters vote Xino, and Xino self-pressing. 
   
• I'm not willing to consider an E!Alpha world unless TKN and some other lower activity player flips Evil, in which case I think Stick's conditional is met and E!Alpha should be back on the table.
   
• I guess I could see E!Wiz making some last minute vote shifts, cf. his Xino plan in MR61, but I also feel he wouldn't do that if Evil with Ash. IDRK.
   
• I like Stick's point about Araris's post, which felt rather natural, but I go back and look at Araris's gameview and votes and I start to feel concern about how highly I can V!read him. Probably somewhere in for now.
• I feel like I'm downgrading everyone to  aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
• I am somewhat okay with  JNV for now. Just feel that E!JNV tends to show up more and make more elaborate posts.
• Functionally, Xino is a  for me for the reasons outlined.
• Ash is somewhere between  and . I go to and fro a lot, which is where I wish there was more to go on.
• Could maybe see Telrao on an Araris team but maybe it's extreme distancing, IDK.
• Stand by read of TKN as fitting on pretty much any team.
• No strong read of Devo and doesn't look like I'll get the chance to formulate one.

I think in this case it boils down to how willing I am to believe that Xino is Evil. With the votes being this divided, I could see a riskier team being willing to commit to just having Xino self-pres and going for a tie. But at the same time, 

8 hours ago, Kasimir said:

• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, Telrao
• |TJ| (3): Araris Valerian, TheAlpha929, xino
• Ashbringer (1): |TJ|
• xinoehp512 (3): Kasimir, JNV, Ash
• Araris (1): Devo
• No Vote (1): TKN

Everyone's already engaged. Devo voted on a side-train. If TJ/Xino are V/V, then likely E!candidates, probably. Araris definitely feels committed to flipping anyone but Xino, which is why I was theorising an Araris/Xino/TJ team but Araris and TJ don't fit well on a team together. TKN is known to allow bad (for team) votes to pass so I wouldn't consider that particularly exculpatory. 

If they're V/E, I don't bloody understand this game >>

If they're E/E, I feel like the last teammate is probably on - ffs. I kind of want to say the last teammate is probably on TJ because ex hypothesi that's a bus, but again it's back to that Araris/xino/TJ team that feels attractive but is marginally incoherent. So...on xino train? IDEK. That's between Ash and JNV then. Lean Ash, but does Ash even make sense in the TJ/xino/Ash team? Hell no. So... no then?

[Mat]

23 minutes remaining!

• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, Telrao
• |TJ| (3): Araris Valerian, TheAlpha929, xinoehp512
• Ashbringer (1): |TJ|
• xinoehp512 (3): Kasimir, JNV, Ashbringer
• Araris Valerian (1): Devotary of Spontaneity

[|TJ|]

Alright, glanced through the cycle. Nothing really to change this earlier opinion - 

On 3/31/2023 at 0:15 AM, |TJ| said:

Ash > Alpha > [Araris, Wizard] > [TKN, JNV, Devotary] > Xino > Telrao > Kas

I'm thinking [Ash, Araris, X] team, Alpha not conditional but the sheeping and some other posts is why they're suspicious. Want to lean gut village on Devo. 

I do want to vote for Alpha over xino.  I think post that initial gut evil on his poke vote, he's been involved in the game, more active than e!xino meta. Tagging @xinoehp512 here if he wants to do that. 

xino ash

Edit: I'm village Rushu, needed that info out if anyone wanted to vote on me now. I tried creating a PM with Stick and an extra PM for Kas with Stick as per his in-thread request in N1. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by |TJ|
fixed bb code formatting and changed ash color to green

[Kasimir]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I'm thinking [Ash, Araris, X] team, Alpha not conditional but the sheeping and some other posts is why they're suspicious. Want to lean gut village on Devo. 

My problem with Ash/Araris is just that unnecessary mutual poke at the start, which kept Ash as a lead train for a significant period, and then also, which brought Araris into contention during the tie. All easily avoided considering train volatility if Ash had just unvoted and self-pressed.

Alpha I can sort of see but feel it'd need a quieter team for that - not necessarily sure an Araris/Ash team works with E!Alpha.

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

more active than e!xino meta

E!Xino tends to taper out as he goes along - made multiple posts as well in C1 of LG91 before losing momentum. Too soon to call IMO. I liked the posts but the Wiz vote feels more like CW shopping than actual attempt to find an Elim.

Edited to add:

@|TJ| You have five minutes to convince me. I'm not a fan of the tepid voting, which might be indicative something is wrong with our current trains.

Edited April 1, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ|]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My problem with Ash/Araris is just that unnecessary mutual poke at the start, which kept Ash as a lead train for a significant period, and then also, which brought Araris into contention during the tie. All easily avoided considering train volatility if Ash had just unvoted and self-pressed.

I keep coming back to Araris' shift late cycle though, I feel that was to sorta protect Ash. 

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Alpha I can sort of see but feel it'd need a quieter team for that - not necessarily sure an Araris/Ash team works with E!Alpha.

Yeah, that's what I meant by conditional, not depending on Ash/Araris team. 

[Mat]

Time!

[Mat]

LG93: Night Two: Deck Duel

They had not been two full days out

When the restless crew began to shout

And Nikli turned it to a bout,

The phoenix lost its glow.

xinoehp512 was removed! He was an Expeditioner!

Night Two has begun! It will end in about 24 hours, on Sunday, April 2nd, at 8am PDT.

Vote Count:

• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, Telrao
• |TJ| (3): Araris Valerian, TheAlpha929, xinoehp512
• xinoehp512 (4): Kasimir, JNV, Ashbringer, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (1): Devotary of Spontaneity

@Elandera has subbed in for Devotary! Please give her a warm welcome into the game!

Take note of the following:

• A reminder that you can call on the services of our IM, @StrikerEZ, for any concerns you may have during the game.
• Don't forget to submit any actions or PM requests!
• There is an inactivity filter in play, of two turns. Failure to post for the duration of N2 and D3 will result in removal or replacement.
• The rules doc can be found here.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Tekkin
2. Archer - Ene Seattle - Expeditioner
3. _Stick_ - Stick - Expeditioner
4. @TheAlpha929 - Kaust Joshe
5. @Araris Valerian - rather lost
6. @Kasimir - Keshek
7. @Telrao - Mewlnir
8. @Ashbringer - AraRaash
9. @The Wandering Wizard - Raven Beak
10. xinoehp512 - Expeditioner
11. @JNV - Jack
12. Devotary of Spontaneity / @Elandera - Ykld, Rhwm, and Vrodn
13. @|TJ| - Tark
14. Sart - Star Guy - Expeditioner

 

Edited April 2, 2023 by StrikerEZ

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

 Another Expeditioner. 

[Kasimir]

Alright. Time to do the colouring:

D2:

Quote

• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, Telrao
• |TJ| (3): Araris Valerian, TheAlpha929, xinoehp512
• xinoehp512 (4): Kasimir, JNV, Ashbringer, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (1): Devotary of Spontaneity
• No Vote (1): TKN

Tepid voting likely indicative of low investment. Likely 8/3 at that point, so Elim presence in voting could wind up being quite significant. The interesting thing is, Xino picked up as a cw at slightly about eighteen hours ago, or past Rollovet, with Ash adding an extra vote an hour later. At that time, the votestate was as follows:

Quote

• TheAlpha929 (2): The Wandering Wizard, Telrao
• |TJ| (2): Araris Valerian, TheAlpha929
• The Wandering Wizard (1): xinoehp512
• Ashbringer (1): |TJ|
• xinoehp512 (1): Kasimir

TKN shows up but continues to do nothing. FWIW, if you think both TJ and Alpha are Village, then that's probably some Elim dgaf energy there. It's this vote-state that JNV and Ash respond to, which is kind of interesting as it's de facto protective of both TJ and Alpha. But it's also functionally a tie. Maybe that's why the cycle felt so tepid - ties aren't too threatening, and voting on a side-train means not having to break the tie.

D1:

Quote

• Ashbringer (2): xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity
• _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
• Sart (2): Archer, _Stick_
• TheAlpha929 (2): Telrao, The Wandering Wizard
• |TJ| (2): Sart, Araris Valerian
• Archer (1): TheAlpha929
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Kasimir

Going back to TJ's theory about Xino being the Village CW to Ash, our D1 main Xino voters were: <Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha.>

Wiz was the train-starter, but spent a decent time voting on and off Ash. It's hard to see Ash and Wiz paired, unless Wiz was into playing risky. It's sort of barely in his portfolio but also not - cf. MR61.

The other two options are Telrao and Alpha. Issue with Alpha is he votes pretty much everywhere. That being said, there's a lot of thread lurking going on and little engagement beyond the early reads post, which does make me wonder.

Noting that Telrao's and Wiz's votes have remained fairly consistently on Alpha - Wiz in particular has experienced a downtick in vote volatility. Which...does make me wonder about a Wiz-Ash team again, since that might explain the significant attitude difference.

[Elandera]

Hello! I'm DMing a D&D game this afternoon, but I'll catch up on this game tonight. Anything specific I should know?

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Not really, Kasimir has claimed Rysn, and TJ has claimed Rushu.