Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[The Wandering Wizard]

20 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

 

I agree that Alpha's playstyle is similar to Thaid's, except I don't really remember what Thaid was like as an elim. Chaotic villager for sure.

They can. 

tbh yeah that plan works better for e!you but after the village flip you'd have to say the elims framed you or else you get exe'd. 

Distro if v!Ash: Maybe v!Lopen+v!Huio+v!Cord = e!Rysn+e!Rushu+e!Vanilla?

Wouldn't it make more sense with three vanillas? Especially because of the double chance blocking kills and coordinating with Cord through PMs. And they also can't take PMs down without losing a teammate. So that makes more sense to me Balance wise at least.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

The reason I have been so erratic is this: I don’t really know what I’m doing, so I literally was just throwing stuff out there to see how you guys analyze it, so I can learn how to think like that. I was having too much fun having secrets (I blame that on Kelsier ), but I guess I’ll tell y’all 

Edited March 29, 2023 by TheAlpha929
The wrong kind of to/too/two! From me! Crazy

[JNV]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Who would you have voted for if you were on at EoD?

Honestly I probably woudlnt have I had no significant suspicions and the cacophony of flying votes was a little intimidating I mean if Alpha wasnt new maybe there but yeah 

4 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

The reason I have been so erratic is this: I don’t really know what I’m doing, so I literally was just throwing stuff out there to see how you guys analyze it, so I can learn how to think like that. I was having too much fun having secrets (I blame that on Kelsier ), but I guess I’ll tell y’all 

You know you can just say that right you can just say its gut and nonsense and ack sort of feelings you dont have to go intentionally confusing us 

[The Wandering Wizard]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

can anyone here confirm whether Ash was on at EoD to save himself if need be? I don't recall seeing him when I logged out.

I don't remember seeing him on. A little after Rollover but not before.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

31 minutes ago, JNV said:

Lol yeah but it was fun. I really shouldn’t have though, to be honest. Sorry guys!

ED1T: Also, I find it a little suspicious that TKN voted for Stick. That kind of makes me feel like one or both of them are elims. And the reason I feel this way is that it feels like Stick is village. She’s quite active, and it just doesn’t feel like she’s an elim. TKN, on the other hand, kind of does. I don’t know much about either of their play-styles and patterns. It’s also a possibility that they’re going E/E (if I used that term correctly). Just some thoughts. Might elaborate more later.

ED2T: I said “feel” so many times. It’s driving me nuts as I reread it 

Edited March 29, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Kasimir]

2 hours ago, Archer said:

I'm going to assume Rushu can make PMs they aren't in, but they should check that before they do anything. 

Why would you both ask this and assume TKN was Rushu...

2 hours ago, Archer said:

I've been wary of them for a similar reason, but I'm leaning village on them. I don't see why they'd burn their plausible deniability card by acknowledging they're taking advantage of their newness. It's also a risky playstyle in a game with a CS.

Fair, that was my initial line of reasoning, yeah. It's possible I just powerfully dislike chaosplay and that influences my read. I definitely have downgraded Drake in my reads before on the basis of chaosplay. At least I no longer feel comfortable with that Village read and have weakened it, even if I don't think I'd push Alpha tomorrow. I do think that where new players who display some meta familiarity are concerned, there's some slack there for our assumptions about their risk tolerance and playstyle to go wrong, so I'm ok with downgrading the read.

2 hours ago, Archer said:

Wiz moved their vote to create an intentional tie near EoD. Imagine e!they're nervous about being the one to cast the tiebreaking vote that decides the round. This explains why they went for a massive tie instead of sitting on their Ash vote or switching to a more impactful wagon. But it has the impact of soft-clearing a bunch of players. Is that worth keeping your hands cleaner? I don't see that being a worthwhile outcome unless e!Ashbringer is a factor. If there's two elims who ended in the tie, that risk calculation points you towards switching from Ashbringer to casting a decisive third vote somewhere else. 

E!Wiz switching largely only makes sense in an E!Ash world, I would agree (I think.) It's also possible (maybe?) that the team decided that there were few enough Elims implicated in the multi-way tie that they didn't particularly care about switching off - roll a marginal die, and Wiz doesn't need to implicate himself further (given earlier controversial voting patterns and performativity concerns - being one of three lethal voters on a Village flip would look bad. With Xino seeming to be read Village for the moment, and TJ with some critics but also some defenders, I think E!Wiz wouldn't fancy his odds in the pool.

But then there's the question of why E!Wiz went back to E!Ash anyway. Voting your teammates for distancing generally works fine, and sometimes people try train explosion as @Araris Valerian points out. I'd argue none of the criteria for train explosion here are met: the train was dissolving naturally (as much as it was going to), Wiz's vote came at an hour to EoD which isn't really the time for dissolution, and there isn't enough momentum there to make people genuinely nervous and to jump off. Moreover, the Ash train hadn't really budged most of the day, which makes me think that it doesn't really make sense. Lethal distancing that way is just odd, unless you propose that E!Wiz was planning to move off at the last minute.

Quote

• Ashbringer (3): xinoehp512, |TJ|, Wiz
• Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devo
• Telrao (1): Araris Valerian
• _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
• Sart (2): Archer, Stick
• TheAlpha929 (1): Telrao
• |TJ| (1): Sart
• Archer (1): Alpha

This is the vote-state at the switch. Wiz moves off TJ, whom FWIW I read, and goes to Ash. 

What sticks out to me about this move:
-Unnecessary Ash endangerment - without the move to Ash, we're looking at a 2/2/2/2 tie between Ash, Araris, Sart, and TJ. We can't even postulate that there are two Elims endangered, because with 1/4 the players in the tie being Village, and I think a decent case for V!TJ, Wiz votes for Ash. This only makes sense in a Wiz/Ash/Araris team but then ex hypothesi, has Wiz choosing to damn one teammate to save another. I guess you could consider it a deliberate sacrifice move to gain cred, but that feels a bit far afield for me at the moment - it's not a layer I want to unpack unless given reason to. It's an opposite movement to Ash's claim so it doesn't feel right in a Wiz/Ash E/E world either.

-We could postulate E!Wiz is trying to save E!Araris, but I kind of think Araris is fine with a 1/4 roll fo the dice, rather than having Wiz incriminate himself for him. Again, Araris might have advised the switch-off, but I sort of think that the events of a certain traumatising MR probably made E!Wiz more likely to wait for doc feedback than less likely  

-Now, Wiz does swap to Alpha later on which makes it a five-way after Araris votes TJ, and as Archer points out, we can probably try to make inferences about that based off the incentives.

<Ash, Araris, Sart, TJ, Alpha.>

Right now, Archer and Stick are defending V!Alpha. I don't feel as confident about V!Alpha as I did earlier, but for the sake of argument, let's give them that. 

In Ash/Wiz/Araris world, 1/2 odds of hitting an Elim isn't great, and keep in mind that this could've easily been averted by voting Sart or TJ. Wiz was already on TJ earlier; I'm not sure swapping back to TJ is the worst for him, although it admittedly involves a climbdown. He could try to ride the Sart votes. I'll note Araris is known to want to avoid suspicious vote shifts (see: LG82, where he allowed a tie in which two out of three of the players were Elims and he was voting his own teammate becaue he felt moving off was more suspicious) so I guess a significant amount of this does come down to whether Araris's risk preferences are dominant in this world.

Wiz's vote switch does improve the odds marginally, from 1/2 to 3/5, so maybe there's that, but the 1/2 3/5 difference feels like the point you're just better off turning a train into a three vote train and riding the backlash. It's so marginal.

So I lean against the E/E/E world I guess.

IDK maybe thinking when I should be sleeping wasn't the brightest idea but insomnia is one hell of a trip, I'll respond to other things later.

I'll say this, and that's that the thing that jumps out to me is that Wiz questions Alpha's move from Ash to Archer, says it gives him bad vibes, and votes...Ash. I can sort of see why, but there's a certain amount of ??? why not vote Alpha? He does do so eventually though.

I can see a Wiz/Araris E/E world FWIW.

[The Wandering Wizard]

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'll say this, and that's that the thing that jumps out to me is that Wiz questions Alpha's move from Ash to Archer, says it gives him bad vibes, and votes...Ash. I can sort of see why, but there's a certain amount of ??? why not vote Alpha? He does do so eventually though.

 

I didn't vote him at the time because it felt he was defensive of Ash and trying to get people away from voting him. So I went to Ash but latter felt worse about Alpha than Ash as Ash felt better than Alpha especially with the roleclaim.

[Kasimir]

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Ashbringer (2): xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity
• _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
• Sart (2): Archer, _Stick_
• TheAlpha929 (2): Telrao, The Wandering Wizard
• |TJ| (2): Sart, Araris Valerian
• Archer (1): TheAlpha929
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Kasimir

Let's try a different angle.

Suppose that Ash is Evil for the moment. (Don't know, just suppose.)

This means that every single train here has to be examined in light of being a potential CW meant to draw pressure off Ash:

• Araris: More or less entails that Ash and Araris are E/V, as Ash willingly leaves Araris endangered or as a potential CW. Ash's initial vote could be seen as a distancing vote, but the stickiness of it suggests a disregard for Araris's wellbeing.
  
  On Devo:
  Spoiler

  Quote

  Ashbringer (3): xinoehp512, Kasimir, TheAlpha929
  Araris Valerian (1): Ashbringer
  Telrao (1): Araris Valerian
  The Known Novel (1): _Stick_
  _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
  Sart (1): Archer
  TheAlpha929 (1): Telrao
  |TJ| (2): Sart, The Wandering Wizard
  Wiz (1): TJ

  Worth noting that this is the vc when Devo intervenes. Instead of going onto TJ, she states she will leave Wiz and TJ to brawl and goes onto Araris. It is true that this comes at eight hours to rollover thereabouts, so this is not much of a time difference.

  Not sure I agree with this quote here:

  Quote

  Don't think Telrao's vote for Xino was very safe since so many people showed up to criticize it, so not sure about Araris's vote. I'll go with Araris then.

  I don't recall serious critique about it, though people did ask for rationale, and Telrao did offer rationale and that was it. What Araris said was:

  Quote

  I would like some more explanation from both Telrao and Alpha about why they prefer Xino over Ash. Their votes feel very "safe", while also adding to a train I'm not hugely a fan of.

  It's possible Devo was trying train dilution. I'm not sure if E!Devo votes TJ in this world - I don't recall Devo's E play as being willing to go out on a limb to save teammates, and voting TJ might up the ante. No strong read here, looking for thoughts. But Devo's vote on Araris rings a bit false here. Fractional 

  
   
• Stick: No one jumped on and judging from thread mood, feels like this was always going to be a longshot in terms of being a CW or splintering off votes. Unlikely E/E with Ash I think. There's a world in which TKN does the same as in QF64 and doesn't want to intervene too much for fear of being caught in vote analysis, so some reservations here, but other than that...
   
• Sart CW, which was started by Archer as a sticky poke that never went away. Questionable.  Some potential buy-in given the extent to which TJ, Stick, and myself were going all over the place on Sart.
   
• Alpha: Started by Telrao, and unlikely to go serious places in light of both SE meta (don't kill the new players C1 if you can) and early consensus on V!Alpha. Feels like Telrao's teammates would advise against this as a serious CW.
   
• Archer: Possible, especially if Alpha was under the impression it was a live train, and I'd certainly voted for Archer at one point before taking it back because I was voting for TJ.
   
• TJ: Started by Sart, so by definition, cannot be CW. 
  
  On Araris:
  Spoiler

  Araris doesn't always abandon trains. Sometimes he stays on a side-train and sometimes he moves. Curious about what motivates @Araris Valerian's shift to TJ? It's a late shift when to all appearances, he was comfortable with staying on Telrao. Unless Araris/Wiz E/E, he doesn't know that Wiz is going to shift, which means at the time of Araris voting TJ, this is the vc:

  Quote

  Ashbringer (3): xinoehp512, |TJ|, The Wandering Wizard
  Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity
  Telrao (1): Araris Valerian
  _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
  Sart (2): Archer, _Stick_
  TheAlpha929 (1): Telrao
  |TJ| (1): Sart
  Archer (1): TheAlpha929
  Devo (1): Kas

  Moving to TJ does bring TJ into contention, but it's also rather late for Araris to try to get a CW, which makes me sort of want to go  actually. Two reasons: first, I don't think Araris tries to go for a TJ CW at nearly half an hour to rollover. It's a bit tight, and it feels like a noisy move, which E!Araris typically dislikes. It's not to say he couldn't do it, but he's soliciting and solicitation looks good to me because it demonstrates some amount of confidence. (Especially since I believe in V!TJ.) I also sort of think there are better trains to get than TJ, given low appetite for TJ. That being said, it's not clear to me why that shift so.

  
   
• Devo: I'm Vikemon! (Someone please tell me you get the meme ref.)

Of course, all this presumes E!Ash. If there's V!Ash, we have a few things that pop out:

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Ashbringer (2): xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (2): Ashbringer, Devotary of Spontaneity
• _Stick_ (1): The Known Novel
• Sart (2): Archer, _Stick_
• TheAlpha929 (2): Telrao, The Wandering Wizard
• |TJ| (2): Sart, Araris Valerian
• Archer (1): TheAlpha929
• Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Kasimir

Relooking at the final vc:

You either commit to thinking we have a 4/1 split in the final tie, or 5/0 in terms of V/E. This likely explains low temperature but also points to some amount of Elim complacency. (Someone can dispute this; I'm working with the V!TJ and V!Alpha assumptions here.)

I don't think the 4/1 and 5/0 analyses substantively differ because they both entail likely low Elim investment.

Which means formally, the set of potential Elims is in: <JNV, Xino, Devo, TKN, Archer, Stick, Telrao, Wiz, Araris, Kasimir.> 

Of these:

• Stick, Wiz had high volatility.
• Archer, TKN, Devo, JNV, Telrao, Araris had high stability.

I'm going to lean towards the latter group for the moment: you could argue lack of investment entails high volatility, but there's also the adage about not helping when the enemy (in the case of the Elims, that'd be us!) is making a mistake. 

Current Thoughts:

Quote

: Kas

I'm Vikemon!

: Araris

: Stick, TJ, Araris, Xino, Alpha, Wiz

Alpha is properly between  and  so let's say:

: Alpha, Wiz, Araris

Similar for Wiz. Suppose in the case of Wiz, I just listen to my initial intuition prior to massive derailing >> I'd be happy putting Araris here as well because of V!Ash possibilities.

: JNV, TKN, Telrao, Devo

TKN's vote stabillity and obsession with personal defense reminds me of QF64 where his interest in the thread only extended so far as addressing pressure on him, after which he faded into the background. Unwilling to upgrade too high as a result. JNV...jury's still out, but some  potential. I've said some of my Devo thoughts already.

: Ash, Archer

Not the fondest of Archer's vote stability for essentially a point that seemed more a nitpick, and lean towards E!Ash because I keep remembering V!Ash trying to self-pres, whether in LG90, or in AG9. If you're V!Lopen, you know your role can be helpful to the Village. Claiming and then not self-presing doesn't feel V!oriented but also doesn't feel consistent with what Mistborn!Ash and Rioter!Ash did.

Even Lurcher!Ash in MR62, while accepting a risky close vote, did self-pres. Arguably, Ash's lack of time might have influenced things here, but it's a point that just keeps bugging me.

That's where I am at, I think.

Other comments:

3 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Wouldn't it make more sense with three vanillas? Especially because of the double chance blocking kills and coordinating with Cord through PMs. And they also can't take PMs down without losing a teammate. So that makes more sense to me Balance wise at least.

I'm confused, both about this and @_Stick_'s hypothesised distro.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Kasimir
Removed spaces

[Stick.]

4 hours ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Wouldn't it make more sense with three vanillas? Especially because of the double chance blocking kills and coordinating with Cord through PMs. And they also can't take PMs down without losing a teammate. So that makes more sense to me Balance wise at least.

Are you suggesting a 5 player elim team o.O

36 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

 

I'm confused, both about this and @_Stick_'s hypothesised distro.

I was wondering if a three player elim team with a role scan, PM role and vanilla is balanced against a v!coinshot, lurcher and RBer. Since the CS tends to help the elim team out too. Though I think a 4 player elim team might make more sense in this case now. 

TKN’s engagement level drops every time he’s not being pressured into it, I agree that that’s definitely an Elim tell. 

Edit:

I forget why I started village reading Xino. :thonk:

Edited March 30, 2023 by _Stick_

[Kasimir]

14 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I forget why I started village reading Xino. :thonk:

For me, it's largely tonal - relaxed interactions that tonally match with QF63 and LG90. 

More willingness to engage with the thread, too.

Problem is, that only goes so far - I feel like Xino is one of the group of players who does like to coast when given Village credit. I'd still lean Village between the two but can be convinced to revise and downgrade. Just not based off C1, I think.

16 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I was wondering if a three player elim team with a role scan, PM role and vanilla is balanced against a v!coinshot, lurcher and RBer. Since the CS tends to help the elim team out too. Though I think a 4 player elim team might make more sense in this case now. 

Four player versus V!CS, V!Lurcher, and V!RBer would seem right. But I am not sure I quite believe in a V!Ash world.

I acknowledge the main problem with my E!Ash theory is that no one seemed to save Ash, which indicates Elims were either not present or tied down, or that it's in <Wiz, you>, both of which are challenging teammates to postulate based off my current beliefs. Araris coldly going for a TJ CW doesn't quite fit the bill either.

I think the Ash/Araris E/E theory isn't very consistent, so not inclined to think Elim inaction was a result of Araris also being on the hook. And the others were Sart, TJ, and Alpha, whom I think we both have  credences in, and Sart flipped .

[Stick.]

13 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I acknowledge the main problem with my E!Ash theory is that no one seemed to save Ash

I think elims these days don’t like saving their teammates xD what I’ve noticed is that elim teams would rather rely on the village to notice how there’s little pushback against the exe and move to a different target than actively suggest CWs themselves/defend the teammate in question. There’s definitely something very wrong about that 2-2-2-2-2-1-1-1 vote distribution. 

[Ashbringer]

I don't like the 2-2-2-2 kind of distributions either, but the last time I broke it I got exed for it. Which is also partially why I didn't change my vote this round. (Also there was still a good amount of time, just not for my schedule.)

[Telrao]

*forgets to follow thread*

*facepalm*

Uhm... yeah don't got much to say rn uhhh... I might change my vote later on, tho 

[The Wandering Wizard]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

Are you suggesting a 5 player elim team o.O

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

No, my brain is tired 

I meant a four man elim team not five...

[Archer]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Why would you both ask this and assume TKN was Rushu...

I checked the rules post but it wasn't clear from that if that was a restriction or not. 

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

• 
   
• Sart CW, which was started by Archer as a sticky poke that never went away. Questionable.  Some potential buy-in given the extent to which TJ, Stick, and myself were going all over the place on Sart.
   
• .

I voted on Stick, Tel, and TKN before I landed on Sart. At that point I hadn't found one which I didn't regret very quickly afterwards, so when Sart made a lengthy post in response to it, I decided to call it a day and commit to that avenue. I don't generally find writing/playstyle analysis very compelling, so I'd avoided those discussions.
The fact that my vote was confirmed wrong looks bad, but I suspect the majority of us were wrong too, so I'd caution about making too much of it.

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

I think elims these days don’t like saving their teammates xD what I’ve noticed is that elim teams would rather rely on the village to notice how there’s little pushback against the exe and move to a different target than actively suggest CWs themselves/defend the teammate in question. There’s definitely something very wrong about that 2-2-2-2-2-1-1-1 vote distribution. 

I guess my thought is: do they do that even to the point of Ash being endangered? I feel like there's a point you have to acknowledge no one is biting and then decide what to do. And if you do resign to the fact that Ash is doomed, you might as well get bussing credit out of it.

I know, QF64, which drove us astray because we assumed Aman was Evil. I mostly just associate TKN with this sort of play I guess.

Yeah it's extreme fragmentation. Only thought I have is the potential unlikeliness of doubling up.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I don't like the 2-2-2-2 kind of distributions either, but the last time I broke it I got exed for it. Which is also partially why I didn't change my vote this round. (Also there was still a good amount of time, just not for my schedule.)

What's the other reason then?

1 hour ago, Telrao said:

Uhm... yeah don't got much to say rn uhhh... I might change my vote later on, tho 

We don't vote at Night!

I do like this post though. Doesn't feel too performative, and you'd think that a doc would keep Telrao better informed. Not too sure though.

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

I voted on Stick, Tel, and TKN before I landed on Sart. At that point I hadn't found one which I didn't regret very quickly afterwards, so when Sart made a lengthy post in response to it, I decided to call it a day and commit to that avenue. I don't generally find writing/playstyle analysis very compelling, so I'd avoided those discussions.

Why?

11 minutes ago, Archer said:

The fact that my vote was confirmed wrong looks bad, but I suspect the majority of us were wrong too, so I'd caution about making too much of it.

This is an odd statement to make. This line of reasoning could be extended to a large majority of D1 votes because unless the Village gets lucky in shooting, odds are we have a D1 friendly fire vote anyway. No one that I can see in the thread is raising the fact that your vote is confirmed wrong specifically as grounds for suspicion - it's not so much your vote per se as the grounds for it, player behaviour, what the player chooses to engage with, and the context surrounding the vote.

Or even raw PoE "I have reason to V read these people but not you."

[Ashbringer]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

What's the other reason then?

Guess I was curious to see what would happen. It's rare that I claim roles. Not unheard of under pressure (hello Silence Montane) but rare.

Also perhaps a bit of meta. Doing it that way, if I was Elim, would force other Elims to put more effort into saving me.

Also I was kind of out of it.

[Stick.]

39 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Also perhaps a bit of meta. Doing it that way, if I was Elim, would force other Elims to put more effort into saving me.

Now why would you say that . . . 

[Telrao]

49 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

We don't vote at Night!

Oh whoops lol  

50 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I do like this post though. Doesn't feel too performative, and you'd think that a doc would keep Telrao better informed. Not too sure though.

Provin' my innocence, baby! *cue pirate dancin'*

[Ashbringer]

24 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Now why would you say that . . . 

Well see I'm not Elim, so I have no idea how much effort the Elims put into saving me 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

My guess would be not much, lol. Assuming you aren't an elim, which is false

Edited March 30, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[Kasimir]

9 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

My guess would be not much, lol. Assuming you aren't an elim, which is false

Spoiler

 

[|TJ|]

Alright, I'll be busier than normal on Thursdays and Fridays, travelling to work. Just wanted to ask @Matrim's Dice if the PMs we request to be open is just for one cycle or will it be a permanent PM till Rushu dies?

[Mat]

1 minute ago, |TJ| said:

Alright, I'll be busier than normal on Thursdays and Fridays, travelling to work. Just wanted to ask @Matrim's Dice if the PMs we request to be open is just for one cycle or will it be a permanent PM till Rushu dies?

The latter. Any PMs opened remain as such permanently.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

4 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I guess my thought is: do they do that even to the point of Ash being endangered? I feel like there's a point you have to acknowledge no one is biting and then decide what to do. And if you do resign to the fact that Ash is doomed, you might as well get bussing credit out of it.

Ash was never quite doomed since he was often only 1-2 votes in the lead with lots of trains that could be made. E/E Wiz and Ash doesn't make a lot of sense with the late vote then unvote, but Alpha and Araris are closer to being protective of Ash. Odd that e/e Ash/Araris doesn't lead the latter to voting Sart though since he was village and had more votes than TJ. Maybe if Archer or Stick were on that team but recent elim teas have been okay with stacking votes so I don't put this as strong indication of saving e!Ash.