Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[Kasimir]

14 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Several comments:

1. You cannot seriously be saying that c1 passivity is AI for me, later on, for sure, but not c1.

2. My village games have three purposes. Win, remember what it's like to be in the village mindset, and use some elim habits I've noticed to make it harder to ID me as elim in the later games. 

3. So what I'm saying is, just because it was an elim tell previously, doesn't mean it is going forward. But still, draw your own conclusions, this is just me explaining nearly every single mix that has happened or will happen in the future.

You've had far more proactive Village C1s recently, including MR62 and LG92. Not sure why that's supposed to be strange. 

I'd also note if you are deliberately playing your Elim tells to obscure your Elim self, then it's hard to expect players to want to buy that you are Village because that is precisely not what you are going for.

20 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Or one at Kas to help keep me grounded in plausible realities

Isn't that right Kas?

Go PM someone else. I intend to spend the Nights watching Digimon (and tbh a decent chunk of the Days), not dealing with people. This is a chill game for me and I intend to let it stay that way.

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

As things stand, I think I'd be down for an Ash exe, purely because I prefer it to a xino exe. Would love to see more content from Ash though whenever he's free from RL.

 

^^^ Where I'm at if it's between Ash and Xino.

IDK, I just still get a more positive read off Xino and that's after going through LG91, LG90, and QF63. Thread engagement feels more in the vein of V!Xino and less constricted than E!Xino.

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Araris

Why Araris?

And what's your Archer suspicions based off?

[Araris Valerian]

1 hour ago, The Known Novel said:

and use some elim habits I've noticed to make it harder to ID me as elim in the later games. 

In addition to what Kas said, I'm not a big fan of this. There was a previous game where someone said they were deliberately trying to be suspicious for similar reasons, and we exed them D1. If you have obvious elim tells, it's your elim play that needs work, not your village play. Also, the defense, "I'm incorporating my elim tells into my village play" can be used by literally any elim when expressing one of their tells.

My current summary of the cycle's voting so far:

• Lots of early votes (including mine) on Ash in the midst of poke voting.
• Xino, who's activity currently suggests he is village, placed a 4th vote on Ash
• This prompts Wizard to switch onto Xino.
• Stick fishes for a train on Wizard, and Telrao on Kas
• Sart puts a second vote on Xino while being mistaken
• TJ adds another vote onto Ash
• Telrao switches to Xino, so does Alpha

I'm currently leaning village on Xino. I don't really have more to my Ash vote than when I placed it, but would still prefer to exe him over Xino, based on the Xino read. 

I would like some more explanation from both Telrao and Alpha about why they prefer Xino over Ash. Their votes feel very "safe", while also adding to a train I'm not hugely a fan of.

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Why Araris?

I mostly just liked this post:

23 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Actually, nevermind. There have been a few times where e!me has placed a 3rd vote onto a teammate D1 in order to get a train on them to collapse. xino's vote was a 4th vote, but might have had similar motivations. I don't think Wiz and xino are e/e right now.

 

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

And what's your Archer suspicions based off?

That one's just gut. Speaking of Archer though - 

6 hours ago, Archer said:

In pre-approval, I flagged the idea that the villagers all PM one protected person who is trusted in order to prove they have not submitted the NK. My guess is Mat is balancing against that using a v!CS who would be exposed by that and no v!bodyguards.

I'm guessing creating PMs counted as an action in the pre-approval ruleset? 

43 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, the defense, "I'm incorporating my elim tells into my village play" can be used by literally any elim when expressing one of their tells.

Yeah, I will note that that thought came after I'd brought up an E!TKN tell above.

[Kasimir]

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I mostly just liked this post:

Fair. Tbh I kind of want to move him up to  , but I also know I always want Araris to be Village to the point it eclipses my good sense, so...

(Just feel I vibed with the last post and it's fairly sensible.)

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm guessing creating PMs counted as an action in the pre-approval ruleset? 

I had typed something a bit longer here, but was being careful about it because I don't want OOG approval PMs to start being mined for alignment info, so I think keeping it as far out of this game as possible is best.

In short, neither Archer nor I responded to Mat's ruleset, and the OG ruleset as submitted to us never had PM creation count as an action anyway.

I believe Archer is confusing this with TKN's current rule approval PM in which he does raise the protection question/worry with regard to players agreeing to PM a protected player.

I consider it NAI for Archer one way or another as rules confusion is normal to both V and E Archer. You could argue I suppose that at most it probably indicates Archer and I aren't E/E as I'd probably have pointed that out in the doc prior to this.

Edited to add:

13 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah, I will note that that thought came after I'd brought up an E!TKN tell above.

Why sitting on it can be good!

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

If you really need me to, I will type out an explanation later, as I am pressed for time at the moment. For now: Xino; Telrao

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

If you really need me to, I will type out an explanation later, as I am pressed for time at the moment. For now: Xino; Telrao

Yes please. Both that and why Telrao!

[Archer]

3 hours ago, The Known Novel said:

Who wants a free PM!?

You should be gunning for the power roles, in hopes of identifying the CS.

Why'd you claim? I read it as a defensive tactic that makes more sense for an elim. E!you knows the village will defer to wanting to keep PMs open, v!you doesn't know if the elims would rather open or closed backchannels. 

9 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'm guessing creating PMs counted as an action in the pre-approval ruleset? 

I'm glad it's not a factor because that was going to be an ethical dilemma re: how much to exploit that.  

Just now, Kasimir said:

I consider it NAI for Archer one way or another as rules confusion is normal to both V and E Archer. 

Neutral Archer is always on top things though!

55 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I would like some more explanation from both Telrao and Alpha about why they prefer Xino over Ash. Their votes feel very "safe", while also adding to a train I'm not hugely a fan of.

1 minute ago, TheAlpha929 said:

If you really need me to, I will type out an explanation later, as I am pressed for time at the moment. For now: Xino; Telrao

I'll take these posts together since my thinking on Araris now applies to Alpha as well. If you're hyper-thread aware, which admittedly I wouldn't count on them being, Telrao is a bad wagon to camp on. My vote is unstable because a key reason for it was fairly quickly refuted. The train is going to collapse if I pull out, forcing you to move your vote if you want to look like you're actively engaged. I don't see an elim choosing to +1 me. 

Telrao TKN

[Stick.]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

(Just feel I vibed with the last post and it's fairly sensible.)

I'm also feeling positive about that last post

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I had typed something a bit longer here, but was being careful about it because I don't want OOG approval PMs to start being mined for alignment info, so I think keeping it as far out of this game as possible is best.

In short, neither Archer nor I responded to Mat's ruleset, and the OG ruleset as submitted to us never had PM creation count as an action anyway.

I believe Archer is confusing this with TKN's current rule approval PM in which he does raise the protection question/worry with regard to players agreeing to PM a protected player.

I consider it NAI for Archer one way or another as rules confusion is normal to both V and E Archer. You could argue I suppose that at most it probably indicates Archer and I aren't E/E as I'd probably have pointed that out in the doc prior to this.

Okay that makes sense yeah

VC:
Ash (3): xino, TJ, Kas
Araris (1): Ash
xino (3): Wiz, Sart, Telrao
Wiz (1): Stick
Telrao (2): Araris, Alpha
TKN(1): Archer

Ash must move to Telrao so that we can have all the A players voting Telrao. U_U What's with the Telrao votes anyway

Edit:

Never mind archer ruined it. VC fixed.

Edited March 28, 2023 by _Stick_

[Stick.]

The Known Novel

[Kasimir]

7 minutes ago, Archer said:

The train is going to collapse if I pull out, forcing you to move your vote if you want to look like you're actively engaged. I don't see an elim choosing to +1 me. 

Telrao TKN

Eh. I feel this is more true of Alpha than of Araris, since Araris is famous for his stab votes. I could see this as a bit of a reason for V!Alpha, yeah, which is where I'm currently at, and take it as a positive sign that Alpha isn't coasting on the earlier V read, which I've been worried about.

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Never mind archer ruined it. VC fixed.

And then you ruined it again by changing your vote...

@Araris Valerian - Why V!Xino read btw?

In a V!Xino world, which is what I'm leaning towards for now, this is what the dynamic looks like:

Xino is fourth voter on Ash, and then Wiz swaps to Xino, and Sart backs him up. There's a world where Ash is Evil and the Xino train, as TJ interprets, is the preferred CW. In that world:

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wizard, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kasimir (1): Telrao

Wiz looks especially bad for making an Ash to Xino switch. (Yes I'm aware I've said otherwise, I'm all over the place this cycle, guilty as charged.) I am not sure this entails E!Sart - Sart has a more natural CW on Wiz IMO in light of that vote. But it also sort of surprises me that Sart doesn't latch onto what everyone else latches onto, which is the fact that Xino was fourth voter on the Ash train. It's Xino's activity that sets Sart off, which feels like such a weird accusation to make?

The tunnelly part of me thinks that this is because Sart doesn't care about the thread except to vote on a CW, the non-tunnelly part of me thinks that an Elim just generally has a better fabricated option. I will award Sart one  in this world. He gets a special Gomamon because it physically hurts my spleen to admit he might not look so Evil after all :|

Subsequently, TJ stacks onto Ash, which is a fundamentally good look for him.

Telrao ties Ash and Xino by voting on Xino. It is possible I guess that Telrao is trying to save Ash? Not sure. I will say that lethal votes from new(er) players always raise my eyebrows because people tend to be kill-shy at the start, though maybe Telrao is just bloodthirsty. No idea. Award half a

Alpha sheeps onto Xino, which :| Fingers twitching on , but doesn't feel quite right in this context. I'm still flagging this as a voteshift that makes me uneasy.

5 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

• Ashbringer (3): Araris Valerian, xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (1): Ashbringer
• xinoehp512 (4): The Wandering Wizard, Sart, Telrao, TheAlpha929
• The Wandering Wizard (1): _Stick_
• Sart (1): Kasimir
• Telrao (1): Archer

Archer and Xino not teamed I guess  Though the Telrao shift could easily be vote dilution.

Interesting thing in this world: I move onto Ash, and Araris moves off onto Telrao, which nominally means that instead of tying Ash and Xino, Ash once again lags Xino.  for the shift on Araris's part.

In a V!Xino, V!Ash world, there's a lot of vanity voting going around.

Quote

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wizard, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kasimir (1): Telrao

Wiz's vote doesn't look so weird: it could be a Villager being spooked by Xino's vote, or it could be an Elim who is trying to get off a bad train and score some Village credit in the bargain. No clear read here I think. 

Sart stacking on...Ugh. I kind of want to say it looks opportunistic, but again, E!Sart can go basically anywhere, it doesn't frickin' matter. Stacking onto Xino like this is such a weird decision I feel it physically hurts me to say this but maybe?

TJ choosing V!Ash over V!Sart doesn't really feel right. It feels sus and gerrymandered I think if E!Sart-E!TJ. In a V!Sart world, TJ should just go for Sart instead of creating elaborate reason to vote for Ash. I think I'm making less sense as this analysis goes on but hell, let's just try anyway. ???

Telrao tying Ash and Xino is a point of interest in this world. He's theoretically indifferent if Evil but isn't here. I'm curious about the reasons as that's a bit decisive and confident and I need a better feel for Telrao to know how to read this. Similar for Alpha, though I have independent reason to lean V on Alpha.

I guess main conclusions for me:

-Downgrade read of Wiz; one  and one  is absolutely a bad place to be.

-Moderate TJ read: either way sort of looks ok unless I've gone kayana.

-I actively dislike that I think Sart is 

IDK if I will stay on Ash but there's still time left in the cycle for me to decide and relook/rethink with sleep.

[The Wandering Wizard]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Ash must move to Telrao so that we can have all the A players voting Telrao. U_U What's with the Telrao votes anyway

I have no idea and I don't like it much at all >>

*sigh*

Nothing makes sense even on the fourth reread, except Xino is confusing me. And my brain refuses to retain anything from rereading -.-

And now I'm contradicting myself but Archer feels weird. At least that's what I kind of remember. 

14 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Telrao ties Ash and Xino by voting on Xino. It is possible I guess that Telrao is trying to save Ash? Not sure. I will say that lethal votes from new(er) players always raise my eyebrows because people tend to be kill-shy at the start, though maybe Telrao is just bloodthirsty. No idea. Award half a

 

She is indeed very bloodthirsty

[Sart]

Well, this is awkward. I could swear I played a game with Xino where he was super active, and it turned out he was evil. Then after that he was always a more low activity player, and he always seemed to flip good. I have no evidence for this though, and quite frankly, I don't feel like trawling through my excessive history with this site. Did I hop into a parallel universe? Possibly. Was I mistaken? Too early to say for certain, but the evidence isn't exactly conclusive.

Now I have to go back to the drawing board and actually do tone analysis. Ugh. I was so excited thinking that I had found a tell that I could easily bust open.

[The Unknown Ajah]

Stick. 

[Archer]

5 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Stick. 

I'm getting faint memories of you saying your elim strategy is to ignore tough questions, so this isn't improving my read of you. Why Stick? Why claim? 

45 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Nothing makes sense even on the fourth reread, except Xino is confusing me. And my brain refuses to retain anything from rereading -.-

Who do you think is the same type of confused as you? If yours is genuine, people with similar stances should also be village 

[Stick.]

Hate to keep pulling up past!TKN receipts but he is usually against voting D1 unless he's strongly convinced someone's evil. So I'd like to hear his vote justification too because as of now it just looks like an OMGUS vote

[The Unknown Ajah]

33 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'm getting faint memories of you saying your elim strategy is to ignore tough questions, so this isn't improving my read of you. Why Stick? Why claim? 

Who do you think is the same type of confused as you? If yours is genuine, people with similar stances should also be village 

I doubt I've personally said that, but someone might have noted that about me. I'll get back to why Stick, but what do you mean claim?

My reasoning for Stick is thus. From what I noticed, her suspicion only started (or at least only got strong) after Kas voiced a similar opinion. She put a poke vote on me early on (a second vote btw), which is a really easy LHF, but there wasn't any read behind it. And then she moved her vote away, and once Kas showed a slight sus I got the impression that Stick was waiting to make sure some other players were willing to join the train, once she saw you, Kas, and I think Sart, Stick that it could be a successful mix, so she hopped on.

Edit: Although I won't deny that there's a bit of OMGUS in there, Stick, that is by no means the majority or even that big of a part of my reasoning.

Edited March 28, 2023 by The Known Novel

[Sart]

As an aside, where the heck is @Devotary of Spontaneity? They were on the shard 8 hours ago, but they haven't said anything yet. I'm not sure it's alignment indicative, but I just want to hear from them.

[Stick.]

13 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

I doubt I've personally said that, but someone might have noted that about me. I'll get back to why Stick, but what do you mean claim?

My reasoning for Stick is thus. From what I noticed, her suspicion only started (or at least only got strong) after Kas voiced a similar opinion. She put a poke vote on me early on (a second vote btw), which is a really easy LHF, but there wasn't any read behind it. And then she moved her vote away, and once Kas showed a slight sus I got the impression that Stick was waiting to make sure some other players were willing to join the train, once she saw you, Kas, and I think Sart, Stick that it could be a successful mix, so she hopped on.

Well you're not entirely wrong - once Archer voted for you it seemed like this could go somewhere (my Wiz vote was collecting dust) so I hopped on. I'm still willing to switch back to Wiz if more people wanna join that wagon cuz I'd rather my vote actually do something. This response from you, for example, is way more than what I got when I asked you a direct question about your reads  And I formed an opinion on you once you'd actually posted something AI - Kas had you in his evil pile for quite a while before that so if I were really just waiting for anybody to cast suspicion on you I would have taken my chances then instead of waiting 10 more hours. 

Edit:

You are also implying that if I'm evil, one or more of <Ash, Xino, Telrao> is teamed with me - because who is E!me trying to start CWs for? And if that's the case, who do you think I'm trying to save?

Edited March 28, 2023 by _Stick_

[The Unknown Ajah]

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

had you in his evil pile for quite a while before that

Which I'm actually very curious about, @Kasimir, since I don't think that was just the other half of the plyer list.

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

This response from you, for example, is way more than what I got when I asked you a direct question about your reads

That's because I tend to ignore reads questions when I don't have reads/just early game in general. I was also going to go back and answer one of your questions, but I forget what it was.

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

if I were really just waiting for anybody to cast suspicion on you I would have taken my chances then instead of waiting 10 more hours. 

I'm not saying you were waiting for anybody, I was saying you were waiting for a significant number of people express a mild sus, which is very common for me d1. 

[Stick.]

6 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Which I'm actually very curious about, @Kasimir, since I don't think that was just the other half of the plyer list.

19 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

It was just the other half of the list, actually. xD Devo’s in there and she hasn’t posted yet. 

[Kasimir]

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

It was just the other half of the list, actually. xD Devo’s in there and she hasn’t posted yet. 

Sort of. As I outlined in the OG post, the reads list itself is a combination of negative reads and IDGAF if you die today people. TKN was a negative read for the reasons already outlined. Devo, having neither posted nor shown up that I saw, can't expect investment from me in her survival. 

Some like JNV I hived off into Marching Fishes because technically insufficient to sustain a read but also I'm just not down for D1-ing them in general at this point. 

EDITED TO ADD: I italicised people who were there largely via inactivity. Archer is a special case as it was meta based but IMO, weaker as a reason for sus because LG91 V!Archer played similarly quiet on C1. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

Y’all are gonna hate me for this, but… Telrao; Ash

I’ve actually had this picked out a long time ago, like, 4 pages. I’m not going to reveal my exact reasons for this right now. Mostly because of lack of time. I’ve been busy today, and couldn’t really focus very well. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by TheAlpha929

[The Unknown Ajah]

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

TKN was a negative read for the reasons already outlined.

Ah yes, the reasons that only came into existence after that list was made. I had only done two posts then, and neither were particularly AI.

[Archer]

56 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

I doubt I've personally said that, but someone might have noted that about me. I'll get back to why Stick, but what do you mean claim?

I misinterpreted your offer to sell out your PM as a Rushu claim. My apologies 

7 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

Y’all are gonna hate me for this, but… Telrao; Ash

I’ve actually had this picked out a long time ago, like, 4 pages. I’m not going to reveal my exact reasons for this right now. Mostly because of lack of time. I’ve been busy today, and couldn’t really focus very well. 

I look forward to the explanation! 

52 minutes ago, Sart said:

As an aside, where the heck is @Devotary of Spontaneity? They were on the shard 8 hours ago, but they haven't said anything yet. I'm not sure it's alignment indicative, but I just want to hear from them.

Sart   This is the type of post you attach a poke vote to. You didn't. That's weird. 

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Ah yes, the reasons that only came into existence after that list was made. I had only done two posts then, and neither were particularly AI.

It is your opinion that your posts should not be AI. I disagreed then and continue to disagree. Given your recent streak of early game engagement, I consider it reasonable to ascribe a negative read to you for making two posts that were peripheral and engaged with nothing significant.