Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[The Wandering Wizard]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

My Digimon collection grows >:)

Well I do think I have an E!Wiz tell figured out but it’s rather silly and mostly unfounded so I won’t say it yet  Want to see more posts from Wiz first 

I'm very curious to see what you think it is. 

37 minutes ago, Archer said:

It's a little early for sheeping 

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I was as Stick pointed out, specifically meaning Xino sheeping onto Ash.

I don't know why but it pinged my gut really hard. Or maybe it's just me feeling uncomfortable with trains that get too large during the early cycle. It's kind of hard to explain quite why.

Problem is with my gut is I tend to talk myself into Kayana worlds more easily that way. 

[Telrao]

*logs onto the Shard*

*Realises that the game had started while I was STORMING SLEEPING*

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

*reads the 4 pages to catch up*

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Thar was a Thread

For the Pirates realm

Where all set sail under setting sun!

But thar was a traitor! Aye, here he be!

By the name o' Kas he roamed!

[xinoehp512]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

It's a little early for sheeping

It's never too early for sheeping

[The Unknown Ajah]

7 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I think the real question is whether TKN really is Alpha's teammate.

Definitely. 

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Soddit. Very hesitant 0.5 

Hey, I recognize that Digimon!

[Sart]

Yeah, I'm just going to throw a vote on xinoehp512.  He always spikes in activity when he's evil, which makes him way too easy too read. If it turns out you're innocent, at least I can revise my overall impression of you, and not be so judgemental.

[The Unknown Ajah]

3 minutes ago, Sart said:

Yeah, I'm just going to throw a vote on xinoehp512.  He always spikes in activity when he's evil, which makes him way too easy too read. If it turns out you're innocent, at least I can revise my overall impression of you, and not be so judgemental.

That's backwards from what the evidence says. Kas put together a fancy diagram and everything.

[Stick.]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

That's backwards from what the evidence says. Kas put together a fancy diagram and everything.

This is true. The Sacred Pie Chart says inactivity is indicative of e!xino.
But his playstyle might’ve changed who knows. 

[Sart]

4 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

That's backwards from what the evidence says. Kas put together a fancy diagram and everything.

Really? Does anyone have a link to this diagram? I'd like to be proven wrong here.

[Stick.]

3 minutes ago, Sart said:

Really? Does anyone have a link to this diagram? I'd like to be proven wrong here.

I’m on mobile but it’s somewhere in this doc

Has your suspicon got anything to do with xino’s vote?

[StrikerEZ]

11 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Please direct any rules questions at me, and any other concerns towards our wonderful first-time IM, @StrikerEZ

I mean, you could also direct rules questions toward me, but I might not be as helpful on that front.

[xinoehp512]

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wizard, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kasimir (1): Telrao

34 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I’m on mobile but it’s somewhere in this doc

Additional evidence: as elim, subbed out that game  Though of course I'm fully aware of the expectation now, so maybe I am deliberately playing differently to throw people off. 

[Kasimir]

4 hours ago, Sart said:

Really? Does anyone have a link to this diagram? I'd like to be proven wrong here.

The Diagram is here:

Spoiler

The text analysis on which the basis of the post was done can be found here, in LG90. I'd note I was a Villager that game so I had a vested interest in getting Xino right.

I'd also note that we mislynched Xino for this in QF64.

My current take is people forget that there is nuance to the diagram, which is that even E!Xino doesn't start out inactive - he has an activity drop over time. I like the look of his engagement currently but am more wary of the fourth stacked vote - that brings to mind LG91 C1 to me, where he did the same thing.

Current Reads/Thoughts:

I am ignoring gradation here because I don't think it fundamentally matters today. It's just about who I'm willing to vote for and who I'm not.

: Kas

I award myself a Digivolution just because I don't want to forget to Digivolve anything this game!  

: Alpha, Stick

: TJ, Araris

Marching Fishes!
 

Spoiler

JNV, TJ, Araris

i.e. people I'm not down to vote today.

: Xino, TKN, Sart, Wiz, Archer, Ash, Devo, Telrao

Edited to add:

Current thoughts on the roles - we know the roles are unique, which makes me lean:

Rsyn: 

Lopen: 

Huio: 

Cord: 

Rushu: 

My anchor for this analysis is actually Cord as Cord has a kill every Night. At fourteen players, that's kind of rough giving it to an Elim team. I could sort of see a team of two line-up, with E!Cord and V!Lopen and V!Rsyn and V!Huio but that seems sort of harsh still, and results in an effective 3KP per cycle. So I don't have strong credences here.

Suppose then that Cord is Village. Huio being Village is more likely - it gives the Village some protection as Cord is more likely to miskill (unless channelling the spirit of Alv), and a bit of protection from the Elim kill. E!Huio, V!Lopen is a downgrade for the VIllage as it requires Lopen to block well. On the Elim side, Rsyn and Lopen are good candidates, either to find and eliminate Cord, or to just shut Cord down if need be.

I've no basis for E!Rushu whatsoever except that E!Tineye tends to be a great Village nerf. One could argue Rushu could be an E nerf too because at endgame, actions analysis essentially indicates if Rushu is Evil. I don't disagree substantively with this.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

35 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I'd also note that we mislynched Xino for this in QF64.

Tbh Xino was sorta active that game and we (or at least I) decided that this was clearly E!Xino intentionally going against his elim meta trying to throw us off and exe’d him for it. RIP.

[Kasimir]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

Tbh Xino was sorta active that game and we (or at least I) decided that this was clearly E!Xino intentionally going against his elim meta trying to throw us off and exe’d him for it. RIP.

As I recall, he was ok on activity, but a bit sheepy and petered out into mid-game which is when we pushed for him. Helped that Aman was strongly defending the CW - Nerdy, I think?

[|TJ|]

I swear I started typing this like 3 hours ago and I keep getting called to work, smh.

Hmmm, 

Couple of thoughts, Stick's over-analysis of Xino's self-annoyance at getting vote count wrong was a bit weird. I'm not getting any alignment indications from the interaction but I was like "why this line of inquiry?"

Anyone jumping on xino after my initially gut evil read of them, I suspect. That's Sart and Wiz. 

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Wiz/Xino E/E?

Hmm, why? I was thinking more like e!Ash -> e!Wiz at this juncture, as I feel like xino is being brought up as a counter to e!Ash. 

I'm more suspicious of Sart than Ash as I feel like the whole "Really? I'd like to be proven wrong" comes off as artificial and though the sole Ash post leans towards his evil meta, I don't really get a stronger opinion from the post. But I'm voting for Ash as I feel the conditionals [early vote spike and the ultimate fall-off which we do not reconsider till like D4] here make him more likely to be evil. 

Mild village on Stick. Looking for xino AI content by searching for the docs seems very v!Stick [showing effort to help the village without seeming fake], but... I mentioned this is the last game I think, so not sure if e!Stick tries to emulate this. Cautious read for now. 

[Kasimir]

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Hmm, why? I was thinking more like e!Ash -> e!Wiz at this juncture, as I feel like xino is being brought up as a counter to e!Ash. 

I'd wondered if they were both Elims who didn't want to get caught on the same train, hence Wiz jumping off as Xino jumped on, but I'm persuaded by Araris pointing out that if Xino is exploding here, then it's unlikely Wiz is also Evil.

My suspicions of Xino boil down to that fourth stacked vote tbh.

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I'm more suspicious of Sart than Ash as I feel like the whole "Really? I'd like to be proven wrong" comes off as artificial and though the sole Ash post leans towards his evil meta, I don't really get a stronger opinion from the post. But I'm voting for Ash as I feel the conditionals [early vote spike and the ultimate fall-off which we do not reconsider till like D4] here make him more likely to be evil. 

I don't really get this?

I share the suspicion of Sart, though.

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Mild village on Stick. Looking for xino AI content by searching for the docs seems very v!Stick [showing effort to help the village without seeming fake], but... I mentioned this is the last game I think, so not sure if e!Stick tries to emulate this. Cautious read for now. 

I agree with a 0.5  on Stick but don't feel the doc issue is AI as Stick and I worked on the Diagram together in the LG90 dead doc so I think it's reasonable she would remember it, and wouldn't consider it high-effort solving. It's more coming up as a response to Sart anyway than as grounds for suspicion, and in this context, Sart is sussing Xino for activity as a deviation from baseline so it's relevant.

Edited to add:

4 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wizard, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kasimir (1): Telrao

Vote-state when TJ voted. It looks potentially defensive of Xino, which is reasonable given TJ's views, but the Ash vote feels a bit gerrymandered in terms of his reasoning for it (bolded above.) Awarding a 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[|TJ|]

11 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't really get this?

Basically e!Ash would lead to e!Wiz. And I feel like xino is being bought up as a counter against Ash, so e!Ash would also lead to v!Xino. These are the conditionals I was talking about. The square bracket is a separate point mentioning that I've noticed there's an elim that comes under fire and gains traction in the first half of the first cycle and it eventually falls off because players say along the lines of "something's wrong" and then we don't really recall the player being under fire at all until mid-end game. I feel like this is happening here. 

Also - 

59 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Rushu: 

This dude looks like this other dude - 

Spoiler

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by |TJ|

[Stick.]

22 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

I swear I started typing this like 3 hours ago and I keep getting called to work, smh.

Hmmm, 

Couple of thoughts, Stick's over-analysis of Xino's self-annoyance at getting vote count wrong was a bit weird. I'm not getting any alignment indications from the interaction but I was like "why this line of inquiry?"

Anyone jumping on xino after my initially gut evil read of them, I suspect. That's Sart and Wiz. 

Hmm, why? I was thinking more like e!Ash -> e!Wiz at this juncture, as I feel like xino is being brought up as a counter to e!Ash. 

I'm more suspicious of Sart than Ash as I feel like the whole "Really? I'd like to be proven wrong" comes off as artificial and though the sole Ash post leans towards his evil meta, I don't really get a stronger opinion from the post. But I'm voting for Ash as I feel the conditionals [early vote spike and the ultimate fall-off which we do not reconsider till like D4] here make him more likely to be evil. 

Mild village on Stick. Looking for xino AI content by searching for the docs seems very v!Stick [showing effort to help the village without seeming fake], but... I mentioned this is the last game I think, so not sure if e!Stick tries to emulate this. Cautious read for now. 

That Sart stance is a little weird - Sart TJ E/E potential :thonk: 

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

 

This dude looks like this other dude - 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Lmaoo

[Ashbringer]

Unfortunately I've got other real-life things I need to deal with at the moment, so... I don't really know. Maybe I can look more tomorrow.

[Kasimir]

29 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Basically e!Ash would lead to e!Wiz. And I feel like xino is being bought up as a counter against Ash, so e!Ash would also lead to v!Xino. These are the conditionals I was talking about

Hmm. Ok. So on this view, E!Wiz distancepokevotes E!Ash, and then:

14 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Stick (1): Archer

Ash (4): Wizard, Araris, Kasimir, Xino

TKN (2): Alpha, Stick

Araris (1): Ash

V!Xino stacks on, which is bad. Instead of going onto TKN, Wiz chooses to open a new train, Xino. Honestly, I am tempted to give Wiz a quarter  for the vote. Maybe downgrade to a weak . In the E!Wiz world, it's reactionary but reasonable, as it's early in the cycle and he'd prefer to not appear to be stacking a sudden CW. But that Xino vote also does have an obvious potential Village perspective IMO - that Xino was sheeping this early and inflating the Ash train. I found it suspicious, and Archer and Stick both made note of it. So I think it's reasonable and it looks a bit good for Wiz to have reacted to it that way.

5 hours ago, xinoehp512 said:

Stick (1): Archer
Ash (3): Araris, Kasimir, Xino
TKN (1): Alpha
Araris (1): Ash
Xino (2): Wizard, Sart
Wiz (1): Stick
Kasimir (1): Telrao

The changes after that I can see are Sart joining Wiz on Xino, and Stick going for Wiz. I feel it's a bit weird for E!Sart to join E!Wiz on V!Xino specifically, since the CW will look sus afterwards in vote analysis, and it's young in the cycle. So I'm not sure I'm committed to Sart-Wiz E/E. At the same time I feel that Sart is sus and my suspicions of Wiz boil down to one meta point about him, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I still don't like how Ash has been playing up to this juncture though, so am torn between whether I'd want to swap to Sart or stay on Ash. Since TJ has effectively added another Ash vote, I guess I feel alright pursuing my suspicion of Sart.

17 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

That Sart stance is a little weird - Sart TJ E/E potential :thonk: 

If so, does this affect your views on Wiz? I'm getting mixed messages from this guy atm.

I just think TJ's vote feels kind of gerrymandered, in the "I suspect Sart but ACTUALLY Ash" way. Like there's a conclusion he has to reach but he also has to drop the obligatory suspicion of Sart en route.

Tbh I feel like I should just vote Marching Fish Buddy already...

SIGH

Y'all gonna make me re-read Creston to work out Wiz aren't you

Hold my Gomamon.

Spoiler

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir
Extra space

[|TJ|]

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Vote-state when TJ voted. It looks potentially defensive of Xino, which is reasonable given TJ's views, but the Ash vote feels a bit gerrymandered in terms of his reasoning for it (bolded above.) Awarding a 

Didn't notice this edit, but yeah this is where I am right now. Ash > Sart > Xino 

42 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I agree with a 0.5  on Stick but don't feel the doc issue is AI as Stick and I worked on the Diagram together in the LG90 dead doc so I think it's reasonable she would remember it, and wouldn't consider it high-effort solving. It's more coming up as a response to Sart anyway than as grounds for suspicion, and in this context, Sart is sussing Xino for activity as a deviation from baseline so it's relevant.

Yeah I just realised she just pust the doc link and said "its somewhere in there, search for" xD so not as effort-worthy as I thought initially. 

Edit: Ninja'd

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I just think TJ's vote feels kind of gerrymandered, in the "I suspect Sart but ACTUALLY Ash" way. Like there's a conclusion he has to reach but he also has to drop the obligatory suspicion of Sart en route.

 

I think I didn't make myself clear enough. Sart is more suspicious [due to his post/vote] but Ash is more likely to be evil [but due to other players' votes/posts]. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by |TJ|

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Y'all gonna make me re-read Creston to work out Wiz aren't you

That was fast and inconclusive. I've tended to associate E!Wiz with more structured if brief analyses in the past and don't feel there's enough data here for me to feel confident on ascribing a read (as indicated by the fact I sort of favour giving him a Pukamon instead for the vote switch.) He also did fall a tad away from structure in the Creston game, so there's that as well. I kind of want to lean  but don't feel there's enough evidential basis for it.

I'll say maybe chunk into  for now on my part, from sheer force of indecision.

I award myself a pure Gomamon gif to help with the psychological damage.

Spoiler

 

[Stick.]

24 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If so, does this affect your views on Wiz? I'm getting mixed messages from this guy atm.

Not really xD Why would it? 

At this point I don’t think Sart is evil because his self-assured tone in that post gives off the same vibe as QF65b!Sart making his accusation against Archer. Unless it was engineered in their doc and both Xino and Sart are evil together, I don’t have reason to suspect Sart at the moment. Given that Sart’s vote on Xino was the second Xino vote, I don’t find Sart/Xino a highly likely pair atm anyway. I will note LG92!Sart throwing Bip under the bus - thought that was under entirely different circumstances where Sart was under a lot of pressure from the thread. 

[Kasimir]

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Not really xD Why would it? 

TJ doesn't explicitly say it but he feels moderately committed to E!Wiz because his suspicion of Ash is based on the idea that there's effort meant to save E!Ash, and that effort's located in <Wiz, Sart.> He does flag earlier he's suspicious of both Wiz and Sart for the Xino vote but generally favours Sart. If you have TJ/Sart E/E credences, then it feels like this should probably impact your views on Wiz.

10 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

At this point I don’t think Sart is evil because his self-assured tone in that post gives off the same vibe as QF65b!Sart making his accusation against Archer. Unless it was engineered in their doc and both Xino and Sart are evil together, I don’t have reason to suspect Sart at the moment. Given that Sart’s vote on Xino was the second Xino vote, I don’t find Sart/Xino a highly likely pair atm anyway. I will note LG92!Sart throwing Bip under the bus - thought that was under entirely different circumstances where Sart was under a lot of pressure from the thread. 

For Sart, it's a meta point for me, which is that whenever I think Sart is making sense, whether or not I think he's factually wrong, he tends to be Evil. I have never played a single game V/V with Sart when I haven't seriously questioned if we're seeing/playing the same game after reading his posts, e.g. LG82 (E!Sart), LG83, LG84, AG8 (...sorry Heron) (V!Sart). I can't really try to convince people with this so I'm not bothering, but it's not a read I'm likely to shift at this current juncture of the game. (Obviously with more evidence...)

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ Question for you, I'm going to check but it'd be easier if you have a recollection.

6 hours ago, Sart said:

Yeah, I'm just going to throw a vote on xinoehp512.  He always spikes in activity when he's evil, which makes him way too easy too read. If it turns out you're innocent, at least I can revise my overall impression of you, and not be so judgemental.

You flagged something similar about Xino's mention of borking the last votecount.

How often has Sart played with E!Xino/when have they last been V/E or even E/E?

Edited to add 2:

I'd note/flag:

- @Ashbringer is lurking substantively but cites being busy. I guess when push comes to shove, I'm willing to give that a chance, though it doesn't change the fact I have a slightly  read at the moment.

- @Telrao is lurking. Not incompatible with E play from last game, and feel that more pressure should elicit clarity about alignment.

- @Archer is currently rather marginal which rings alarm bells for me. Leaning  but will note that Archer did in fact have something similar going on in LG91 in which he was V.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Telrao]

Mewlnir strode across the deck, her soft fur blowing in the sea breeze. "What be this discussion 'ere?" She queried, placing a small paw on her tiny sword. "Aye, this do be an unsettling experience. Ye kin be sure that we will find these pesky Hoardlings aboard. Nary a mouse has escaped me blade, lads and lassies."

She bounded up onto the rail, grabbing hold of a convenient rope. Her golden eyes glittered in the sunshine as she gazed across the deep blue sea. She then turned so she faced the others, her furry brow wrinkled. "I don't 'ave much experience in these matters, ye see. Strike with yer blade first, let their soul plead with the Salmon Meercat for freedom. But I do think that I were wrong in me judgement. I recast me vote. Kas be freed from me blade, but now it be at th' neck o' Xino."

[OOC: Sorry just really wanted to RP a lil bit haha :skull:]