Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[Stick.]

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

TJ doesn't explicitly say it but he feels moderately committed to E!Wiz because his suspicion of Ash is based on the idea that there's effort meant to save E!Ash, and that effort's located in <Wiz, Sart.> He does flag earlier he's suspicious of both Wiz and Sart for the Xino vote but generally favours Sart. If you have TJ/Sart E/E credences, then it feels like this should probably impact your views on Wiz.

If it’s E!TJ then he isn’t really committing to E!Wiz with that statement cuz in that case Ash is almost certainly village, and after his flip E!TJ will not have any reason to continue suspecting players who retracted their Ash votes. 

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How often has Sart played with E!Xino/when have they last been V/E or even E/E?

Hm that’s a good point. I would say that it’s possible he’d heard of the diagram and remembered the details wrong, but clearly that’s not the case here. Maybe a doc convo 

[Kasimir]

23 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

If it’s E!TJ then he isn’t really committing to E!Wiz with that statement cuz in that case Ash is almost certainly village, and after his flip E!TJ will not have any reason to continue suspecting players who retracted their Ash votes. 

Yeah, what I just mean is that there are clear implications for Wiz's alignment off any view you have on TJ's, if only because Wiz emerges in a slice of players that TJ is interested in/focusing attention on, and currently is sus of, but in a watered down way, so I'm curious if you're thinking through what those are.

Ever heard of "Moving off a bad train, clearly knew Ash was V"?  

39 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

How often has Sart played with E!Xino/when have they last been V/E or even E/E?

Pulling from the sheet:

Last most recent games recorded:

LG88: V/V
LG83: V/V
LG79: V/V
AG7: V/V
MR44: V/V
LG67: E!X / V!S
MR42: V/V
QF44: V!X / E!S

If we include Steel's faction game (LG87), then Xino was I think in Stick's and JNV's faction and Sart was quasi-Elim.

Their first game together was LG48 in which they were E/V (E!X / V!S). 

Sheet doesn't include games beyond MR61 but I don't recall Sart playing MR62, and they were V/E (V!X / E!S) in the LG Fifth and I ran.

23 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Hm that’s a good point. I would say that it’s possible he’d heard of the diagram and remembered the details wrong, but clearly that’s not the case here. Maybe a doc convo 

I wouldn't rule out Sart having a fixed impression of Xino off their early games together, though I will note I am not seeing that many E!X/V!S games in playhistory.

But I'm also the guy who still thinks Sart is Evil so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'd say for anyone trying to reproduce what I did with the sheet - don't sign in, use a temp filter, and filter players for Sart, xino, then filter alignments for only G/E, and then check for games in which they occur together. Probably a faster way to do this but I can't Python this so ._.

Edited to add:

@_Stick_ Tbf I will give you this and that's that this is a very odd vote to make if Evil - if factually wrong, you end up being forced to retract, when E!Sart probably wants to camp. But it's also just as possible E!Sart didn't check and just confidently voted I guess. Point about confidence level taken though. If you bring up the LG92 comparison, then odds that sort of confidence emerges when trying to save E!Ash?

I will admit this is probably one hell of a sea-tunnel rn but hey.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[Stick.]

3 hours ago, Telrao said:

Kas be freed from me blade, but now it be at th' neck o' Xino

Is there a reason you’re choosing to vote Xino over Ash (or the other exe candidates)?

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah, what I just mean is that there are clear implications for Wiz's alignment off any view you have on TJ's, if only because Wiz emerges in a slice of players that TJ is interested in/focusing attention on, and currently is sus of, but in a watered down way, so I'm curious if you're thinking through what those are.

I think Wiz is suspicious independent of TJ but could also theoretically be evil with TJ because I don’t think TJ has indicated immediate willingness to go after Wiz. Not without Ash’s flip. 

@Sart curious to hear where your E!Xino observation came from, given Kas’ findings  

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

@_Stick_ Tbf I will give you this and that's that this is a very odd vote to make if Evil - if factually wrong, you end up being forced to retract, when E!Sart probably wants to camp. But it's also just as possible E!Sart didn't check and just confidently voted I guess. Point about confidence level taken though. If you bring up the LG92 comparison, then odds that sort of confidence emerges when trying to save E!Ash?

I will admit this is probably one hell of a sea-tunnel rn but hey.

I don’t know if E!Sart panics about saving Ash when it’s D1 (votes are fluid) and we’ve still got more than half the turn left. It’s possible ig but I’m not confident.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon]

HmmmMMmmMMmmMMm 

TKN

Xino

[Archer]

8 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

mmMMmmMMmmMMm 

...icrowave

Why that vote, Alpha? 

Don't have the quote, but Stick defending Wiz by correcting my interpretation of their post about sheeping is a good look. (Assuming they're not e-e). Stick 

Quick note on the distribution discussion. In pre-approval, I flagged the idea that the villagers all PM one protected person who is trusted in order to prove they have not submitted the NK. My guess is Mat is balancing against that using a v!CS who would be exposed by that and no v!bodyguards. 

Being responsive to pressure is sus, so here's a catch 22, Telrao

[The Wandering Wizard]

6 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I've no basis for E!Rushu whatsoever except that E!Tineye tends to be a great Village nerf. One could argue Rushu could be an E nerf too because at endgame, actions analysis essentially indicates if Rushu is Evil. I don't disagree substantively with this.

Doesn't Rushu also keep the PMs open?

Organic VC:

Xino (4): Wiz, Sart, Telrao, Alpha

Ash (3): Araris, Xino, TJ

Araris (1): Ask

Sart (1): Kas

Wiz (1): Stick

Telrao (1): Archer

23 minutes ago, TheAlpha929 said:

HmmmMMmmMMmmMMm 

TKN

Xino

Why do you people do this to me .-.

I'll second Archer, why the switch?

Edit: Also @Telrao why'd you switch as well?

Edited March 28, 2023 by The Wandering Wizard

[Mat]

Official GM Rollovet Vote Count:

• Ashbringer (3): Araris Valerian, xinoehp512, |TJ|
• Araris Valerian (1): Ashbringer
• xinoehp512 (4): The Wandering Wizard, Sart, Telrao, TheAlpha929
• The Wandering Wizard (1): _Stick_
• Sart (1): Kasimir
• Telrao (1): Archer

24 hours (ish) remaining in the Day! If my VC's wrong, let me know.

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Being responsive to pressure is sus, so here's a catch 22, Telrao

Honestly I don’t know if their post there was a response to the nudge from Kas - I personally did not see Kas’ edit until after Telrao had posted. On mobile so not sure of the exact time stamps but I’m guessing they’re pretty close. 

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Don't have the quote, but Stick defending Wiz by correcting my interpretation of their post about sheeping is a good look. (Assuming they're not e-e). Stick

I am elim reading Wiz tho, feel free to join :]

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Doesn't Rushu also keep the PMs open?

That's why I said Evil Tineye reasons, with the Evil nerf aspect coming with regard to action submission in endgame. I think it's a good role to have on Team Evil because forcing the Village to get rid of PMs is what I'd argue to be Evil-leaning but not substantively so. So graded Gizamon (lighter Evil than Gesomon, but.)

Unlikely for the entire Evil team to be full of roles either, anyway. I'd expect a distribution.

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Honestly I don’t know if their post there was a response to the nudge from Kas - I personally did not see Kas’ edit until after Telrao had posted. On mobile so not sure of the exact time stamps but I’m guessing they’re pretty close. 

@Archer - I can attest to remembering Telrao's ninja coming in a second or after I clicked Update, so I wouldn't class this as being responsive of/to pressure. It showed up when the page reloaded after I hit Update.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Quick note on the distribution discussion. In pre-approval, I flagged the idea that the villagers all PM one protected person who is trusted in order to prove they have not submitted the NK. My guess is Mat is balancing against that using a v!CS who would be exposed by that and no v!bodyguards. 

Uh. Bro, the PM doesn't count as an action unless it's Rushu's PM so it doesn't matter in this context. 

Quote

• Each Night turn, a player may submit an order to create a 1-1 PM (provided Rushu is alive) and submit an action. PMs are created by the GM the following Day turn and do not have to include the player who created them. The elim kill is considered an action. 

Because PMs are not actions, only Rushu is affected by actions submission potentially at endgame. (Hint Rushu, if you are in fact a Villager, you know what you should be doing at Night!)

Declining to ascribe a read to Archer on this basis. Rules confusion is NAI for Archer.

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I don’t know if E!Sart panics about saving Ash when it’s D1 (votes are fluid) and we’ve still got more than half the turn left. It’s possible ig but I’m not confident.

I'm not sure it's panic, but I could see it coming from E!Sart as a decisive early cycle 'head them off' thing, instead of a late Turn shift that could be regarded as more suspicious. But again, I could be tunnelling, so. I think where I'm coming from is - you raise LG92 as an instance of when E!Sart sounds more decisive, e.g. when defending a teammate. I'm asking if it's plausible that tonal slip happens when Sart is on defense mode, rather than panicked per se.

Do agree that confidence could indicate purity of intention behind the vote, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I am elim reading Wiz tho, feel free to join :]

Am curious why tbh - I think I've talked myself in the opposite direction...

[Stick.]

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Am curious why tbh - I think I've talked myself in the opposite direction...

All his posts this game just seem to be fabricated to a degree. For example:

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Doesn't Rushu also keep the PMs open?

What was the point of this question. () To me it just sorta seems like artificial involvement in thread discussions. I am also not quite seeing the type of engagement V!Wiz shows when trying to solve the game. 

[Kasimir]

Went back to briefly take a glance at QF63 and LG90. I sort of want to give Xino a  because he's tonally consistent in terms of posting and engagement with QF63 and LG90, in which he was both Village. But then...

 

There's a confidence and ease in his engagement with the thread for trivialities that I don't recall him showing in LG91 as an Elim. But let's pull out LG91 to check:

He does meme, but there's no real engagement IMO. 

Multiple pages of thread, another post from Xino. Tone not as casual as the earlier samples IMO.

Tone here is more casual, but also not disconnected from the game.

RP.

Ookla notification.

That's all, and I scrolled through a 15 page D1 for this, refuse to remotely touch LG92.

In conclusion, the difference is more muted, so I'm considering downgrading that to a  read, which is still an upgrade from where he was. I do agree that same sort of tone and engagement pattern shows up with E!Xino as well (cf. LG91), just feel that he's more casual than later E!Xino was, so more reminiscent of QF63 and LG90. Don't feel convinced enough to Gomamon Award him though.

Current Reads/Thoughts:

Continued.

: Kas

: Alpha, Stick

: TJ, Araris, Xino, Wiz

Marching Fishes!
 

Spoiler

JNV, TJ, Araris

i.e. people I'm not down to vote today.

: TKN, Sart, Archer, Ash, Devo, Telrao

Moved Wiz into the unclear category as well.

17 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

What was the point of this question. () To me it just sorta seems like artificial involvement in thread discussions. I am also not quite seeing the type of engagement V!Wiz shows when trying to solve the game. 

I wasn't sure it seemed artificial - if Rushu keeps PMs open, then on one reading, Rushu is a pro-Village role, whether Elim or not. You could argue that I'm being too charitable, which is fair, and I will agree it doesn't fully engage with my point.

I think my question here is, what's your baseline for Wiz? I'm thinking early AG9, maybe a touch of QF64 here. I don't find that too out of range, because I died in AG9 before he got any solving energy ( ) but am not sure if there's something I'm missing. After relooking the Creston game, I felt like he made more attempt to manufacture analysis there than I'm seeing here, which makes me lean a bit V.

My initial E read, ironically, is based off how long it took for him to show up in the thread, as he's known to love docs.

[Stick.]

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

if Rushu keeps PMs open, then on one reading, Rushu is a pro-Village role

Of course Rushu is a pro-village role - but that isn’t what your post was talking about was it  

10 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I think my question here is, what's your baseline for Wiz? I'm thinking early AG9, maybe a touch of QF64 here. I don't find that too out of range, because I died in AG9 before he got any solving energy ( ) but am not sure if there's something I'm missing. After relooking the Creston game, I felt like he made more attempt to manufacture analysis there than I'm seeing here, which makes me lean a bit V.

My baseline for V!Wiz is actually more LG92. But AG9 is also a good comparator.

12 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My initial E read, ironically, is based off how long it took for him to show up in the thread, as he's known to love docs.

Huh? I posted immediately after the thread went up and Wiz followed soon after 

[The Unknown Ajah]

29 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

: TKN

Why am I so deep in your "Ew, don't vote it, it has cooties" category? (I think that's what this is, but the scary Digimon is throwing me off)

[The Wandering Wizard]

24 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Huh? I posted immediately after the thread went up and Wiz followed soon after 

I think he means for me to actually start consistently be present. Since I did drop off yesterday for a long period of time.

[Kasimir]

26 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Huh? I posted immediately after the thread went up and Wiz followed soon after 

I don't feel you did, tbh. Six minute delay felt hella long, and I recall seeing both my GM PM and realising the thread was empty. If your view is you're Village and you went directly to the thread, and he's there too, then I'd be forced to revise upwards, though not too strongly, because he's mentioned the need to break that pattern as an Elim.

28 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Of course Rushu is a pro-village role - but that isn’t what your post was talking about was it  

I was reading it more as arguing that since Rushu is pro-Village, Rushu is more likely to be Village, contra my claim that I think an E!Rushu distro is more likely. But ok, fair, since that's an automatic thing Rushu does regardless of role, so I see what you mean by not really engaging.

29 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

My baseline for V!Wiz is actually more LG92. But AG9 is also a good comparator.

...I am not re-reading LG92 I am not I am not I am not that drek is too long.

Can you summarise for me why/where you see V!Wiz as being solvey? Because I'm not catching the difference here.

10 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Why am I so deep in your "Ew, don't vote it, it has cooties" category? (I think that's what this is, but the scary Digimon is throwing me off)

Given I'm voting someone in that category, that seems to be the incorrect interpretation of the category  

[The Unknown Ajah]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't feel you did, tbh. Six minute delay felt hella long, and I recall seeing both my GM PM and realising the thread was empty. If your view is you're Village and you went directly to the thread, and he's there too, then I'd be forced to revise upwards, though not too strongly, because he's mentioned the need to break that pattern as an Elim.

I was reading it more as arguing that since Rushu is pro-Village, Rushu is more likely to be Village, contra my claim that I think an E!Rushu distro is more likely. But ok, fair, since that's an automatic thing Rushu does regardless of role, so I see what you mean by not really engaging.

...I am not re-reading LG92 I am not I am not I am not that drek is too long.

Can you summarise for me why/where you see V!Wiz as being solvey? Because I'm not catching the difference here.

Given I'm voting someone in that category, that seems to be the incorrect interpretation of the category  

So you don't like me? Y u no like me?

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, The Known Novel said:

So you don't like me? Y u no like me?

Why should I? :eyes:

[The Unknown Ajah]

3 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Why should I? :eyes:

Grog nice to u, y u no nice to Grog?

Actually, I was going to give you my PM since I'm not going to use it, but now I'm selling it to the highest bidder.

Who wants a free PM!?

[Kasimir]

2 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Grog nice to u, y u no nice to Grog?

Actually, I was going to give you my PM since I'm not going to use it, but now I'm selling it to the highest bidder.

Who wants a free PM!?

That's fine, I don't need PMs in the Digital World anyway :eyes:

Have fun with that!

[xinoehp512]

I think, given the circumstances, I'm pretty happy with my vote where it is.

If I were going to move it, I'd likely move it to Wizard. I don't feel great about his swing to me in the light of Ash's sudden train. 

[Stick.]

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

If your view is you're Village and you went directly to the thread, and he's there too, then I'd be forced to revise upwards, though not too strongly, because he's mentioned the need to break that pattern as an Elim.

Yeah that's what I was getting at. …Wait, why are we arguing against our reads xD

34 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Can you summarise for me why/where you see V!Wiz as being solvey? Because I'm not catching the difference here.

It's about interaction with other players -  so genuine engagement + activity is what I mean. He pointed it out just now actually:

35 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

I think he means for me to actually start consistently be present. Since I did drop off yesterday for a long period of time.

 

26 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

So you don't like me? Y u no like me?

From memory, E!TKN is more likely to ask for elaboration on reads on him. 

Do you have any reads, TKN?

21 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

Actually, I was going to give you my PM since I'm not going to use it, but now I'm selling it to the highest bidder.

Who wants a free PM!?

I'll take one with Wiz if he lives

[Kasimir]

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Yeah that's what I was getting at. …Wait, why are we arguing against our reads xD

IDK. I'm not approaching this game seriously honestly  I'm mostly marathoning Digimon and occasionally trying to make sense of things. It's D1 just past Rollovet so I'm not wedded to my reads and if they don't make sense, I'm happy to abandon them.

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

It's about interaction with other players -  so genuine engagement + activity is what I mean. He pointed it out just now actually:

See, because my impression is Chameleon didn't really have that either? But I'll go relook later if I feel bored after this episode.

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

From memory, E!TKN is more likely to ask for elaboration on reads on him. 

That's one reason why he's sunk in  alongside general passivity, yes.

8 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'll take one with Wiz if he lives

FYI, and more general reminder to everyone:

Be careful about claiming in PMs. If a PM was made by an Elim, even if it doesn't include them, telling people you are the thread spokesperson for Role X/Y could be giving that info to the Elims, despite thinking you are being clever.

Source: I'm sorry I got Mat killed in LG78 (?) because I claimed to know someone Link wanted to meet up with  And E!Drake made that PM  

Edited to add:

13 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I think, given the circumstances, I'm pretty happy with my vote where it is.

If I were going to move it, I'd likely move it to Wizard. I don't feel great about his swing to me in the light of Ash's sudden train. 

Why do I want to ...whyyyyyyyyyy

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kasimir

[The Wandering Wizard]

12 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'll take one with Wiz if he lives

Smh I was already planning on chucking one your way.

Or one at Kas to help keep me grounded in plausible realities

Isn't that right Kas?

[The Unknown Ajah]

4 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

From memory, E!TKN is more likely to ask for elaboration on reads on him. 

That's one reason why he's sunk in  alongside general passivity, yes.

Several comments:

1. You cannot seriously be saying that c1 passivity is AI for me, later on, for sure, but not c1.

2. My village games have three purposes. Win, remember what it's like to be in the village mindset, and use some elim habits I've noticed to make it harder to ID me as elim in the later games. 

3. So what I'm saying is, just because it was an elim tell previously, doesn't mean it is going forward. But still, draw your own conclusions, this is just me explaining nearly every single mix that has happened or will happen in the future.

[Stick.]

12 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Smh I was already planning on chucking one your way.

Or one at Kas to help keep me grounded in plausible realities

Isn't that right Kas?

8 minutes ago, The Known Novel said:

use some elim habits

bombastic side eye xD

As things stand, I think I'd be down for an Ash exe, purely because I prefer it to a xino exe. Would love to see more content from Ash though whenever he's free from RL.

Players I've even a slight village read on: Kas, Alpha, Araris

Sus: Wiz, Archer, TJ, (Sart maybe? Depends on his answer to my question), TKN, Ash

I'm willing to vote outside the sus pile if I have to, but would prefer to vote there.

Edited March 28, 2023 by _Stick_