Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

7 am

watching watching watching watching watching

mad watcher hadnt watched this many peoples die so quickly since the last time she told locke that people were calling him lockey. it was quite fun! and it meant there were lots of free unattended drinks calling out to her. it was fun to try to match the drinks to the bodies on the floor. the nice yellowy lemony one almost certainly belonged to that fiery conner that telina shot.

there was a drink she had been wanting for a looooong time. it was red with a white cream and a green liquid that looked like lighting caught in it. the bartender variel made it for julius right before he died, and it was the last one mad watcher wanted before she could vamoose! but julius wasn’t putting it down! no matter how long she watched, jules just kept it on her table while she talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked and talked. mad watcher was done with it.

so mad watcher stole qwerty meep’s drink and left a note that said “hahaha, i stole your drink! love, julius.”

mad watcher sat back and sipped her sucky drink and watched as qwerty started yelling out julius. by the time she had finished her appetizer, they were punching each other and rolling around on the floor. so she ran over and stole the drink. it was delicious! and that meant her job was done.

she hurried away into the corner of the room where behind a shelf of nutella she had carved a tunnel through the wall. she gave the room one last glance to make sure no one was watching, and then was away through the tunnel. she needed to go find some other things to watch. she had heard that there was some funny business going on among the twinborn community of elendel. 

welcome to the 7th hour! the sun is in the sky, there are literally no hints in this writeup, i’m just having fun. remember when karnage and flogs were in two different places at the same time in one of these writeups?

 

shard of reading was lynched! they were a constable smuggler!
little wilson was ‘killed.’ they were a criminal impersonator/gossip!

tj shade was killed! they were a pinch hitter of dot, who was a criminal gossip!

 

awake players: 10

votes required to disperse the party: 6

 

vote count:

reading (7): bugsy, detess, devotary, experience, megasif, xino, kynedath

xino (4): matrim, sart, reading, tj shade

 

dispersal votes (0/9):

 

player list:

thattinystrawman ( straw ) renowned constable

lord silberfarben ( lord_silberfarben )

xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )

to be determined ( elkanah ) dowser, criminal smuggler

shard ( experience )

qwerty meep ( shard of reading ) constable smuggler

coda ( coda )

lord reginald ( kynedath )

matrim ( matrim's_dice )

lady zephyr ( zillah )

archivald ( the_archivist )

lord karn ( karnage ) flogs, a criminal gambling tycoon

variel (strikerez ) bartender/bodyguard criminal

lady lumen ( mist )

emi ( emi )

tbd ( brightnessradiant )

lensaar ( devotary of spontaneity )

lord malikihal ( the_god_king )

the young pyromancer ( the young pyromancer ) constable stalker

locke tekiel ( orlok tsubodai ) renowned/gossip criminal

lady arielle ( arraenae ) criminal gossip!

julius (tj shade ) criminal gossip

hammond ( megasif )

lord gavin verduex ( hemalurgic headshot ) criminal extortionist

mad watcher ( little wilson ) criminal impersonator/gossip!

ladytelina maladroi ( detess )

lord laborn ( bugsy )

muriel ladrian ( furamirionind ) gossip constable

lord hadrian penrod ( araris valerian ) criminal gossip

a smart guy ( sart )

[Bugsy he/him]

There's going to be hell to pay. You know who you are. 

[DeTess she/her]

I doubt a village bartender would kill either of the two non-lynchees, so it seems Bleeder is killing again.

Anyway, let's look over reading's posts again with the knowledge of their alignment.

They pushed for a god king lynch C1. Given that at the time a push on Straw was happening, and reading was the second vote on TGK, this seems like a real effort to get TGK lynched, which makes me think that TGK is likely to be village.

They also pushed on Xino back when the whole Xino-pyro tie was happening. I'd expect a vote on Pyro there if xino and pyro where both elims, as it's better to lose the revealed elim, but I reckon at that pointy I would expect the elim team to be working on distancing. Still, it makes me less inclined to lynch Xino anytime soon.

That's about all I got out of their posts. Now for their lynch: It was started by Experience, at a time where we had a multi-way tie, so its unlikely that was a distancing attempt. The same goes for Bugsy's vote. Anything after that is less certain.

So, tl;dr TGK, bugsy and experience very likely to be non-elim, Xino moderately likely to be non-elim.

I'm going to put my vote on Lord silberfarben again ( @Lord_Silberfarben ) . TJ identified them or Zillah as the elim impersonator, and between them I'm more suspicious of Silber than of Zillah. Still, I'd love to hear more from @Zillah as well.

edit: speaking off TJ's vote manipulation analysis analysis, the reading wagon hasn't been manipulated at all, but someone moved reading's vote to Xino. I think that was probably Wilson.

edit2: also, only 10 awake players out of 17 isn't good. four of those ( @The_Archivist, @Emi, @BrightnessRadiant and @The_God_King) are just afk, but there's also still a bunch of escorts around.

Edited June 6, 2020 by DeTess

[Bugsy he/him]

Alright. Time to clear the air and give you all the information I know you've been waiting for. 

I'm Bleeder / Gambling Tycoon. My actions so far have been as follows:

C1: Scan Rae, redirected onto myself

C2: Kill Karnage, he survived

C3: Kill Karnage, he died

C4: Attempt to scan DeTess. Redirected to attack myself.

C5: Roleblocked by an escort

C6: Redirected to attack TJ

The interference in cycles 4 through 6 are almost certainly all the work of the elims. 

I'll admit I wondered why the extortionist who targeted me on C4 didn't say anything. It's pretty obvious now, though. See, the elims intend to use me as a weapon for the remainder of the game. They're going to alternate between extorting and roleblocking me, cycle after cycle, until the game is over. I don't intend to let them, and I'd hazard a guess that most of you don't either. 

I'm sorry to say, village, but killing me is not an option right now. I can only die to the lynch, and even then only if I'm lynched twice. There's no way that happens before the game ends, one way or another. It's about time to ditch the whole dilemma about whether to hunt Bleeder or the elims - there's only one right option for anyone who wants to win. Only 6 votes are needed to disperse the party, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn the elims have nearly that many members still living. I rather doubt all of them are awake and able to vote for dispersal, which is why I haven't given up this game as a lost cause yet. Even still, we're within a cycle or two of game over. We need to hunt elims, and we need to do it fast. 

Elims, a word to the wise: I don't take kindly to being used as a tool. Unifying two factions against you is a good way to lose - just look what happened to me after I killed Flogs on C3. I hope you're confident in your odds right now, because that one kill you got out of me just now? I'm not sure it was worth it for you  

Edited June 6, 2020 by Bugsy

[DeTess she/her]

... okay, so new plan, we need to tie up bugsy and whoever we consider likely to be an elim. If Silber and/or zillah return to activity we will have to make sure the elim is two votes ahead to force the elims to tier things up neatly.

Also, really, elims? You have pyro talk a big game about finding and killing bleeder together, and then when you have her dead to rights you pull that stunt instead? I'm really, really not sorry about taking out Pyro when I did now.

[Bugsy he/him]

1 minute ago, DeTess said:

... okay, so new plan, we need to tie up bugsy and whoever we consider likely to be an elim. If Silber and/or zillah return to activity we will have to make sure the elim is two votes ahead to force the elims to tier things up neatly.

Also, really, elims? You have pyro talk a big game about finding and killing bleeder together, and then when you have her dead to rights you pull that stunt instead? I'm really, really not sorry about taking out Pyro when I did now.

It's worth noting that the elims redirected me last cycle, so they can only hope to roleblock me tonight. If I point my attack at someone like BR who's almost certainly an elim, and if we can keep their escort from targeting me (with an escort or extortionist of our own), we can get an extra village kill tonight. 

[DeTess she/her]

31 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

It's worth noting that the elims redirected me last cycle, so they can only hope to roleblock me tonight. If I point my attack at someone like BR who's almost certainly an elim, and if we can keep their escort from targeting me (with an escort or extortionist of our own), we can get an extra village kill tonight. 

Might be worth keeping in mind, but I will do my best to arrange those ties I mentioned before. If you're right about us being basically at Lylo then this game will go long, and in any 'last three' situation you'd win, so we'd need to take you out before then.

Anyway, i just thought of a bit of analysis I could attempts, but first. @A Joe in the Bush, would you let the elims puppet the actions of inactive team-mates?

edit: also, nice bit of irony: if there is indeed a larger than usual elim team then if they'd just handed us bleeder C5 they might have won this cycle on dispersal votes.

Edited June 6, 2020 by DeTess

[Coffeecat she/her]

Uh

why did everyone who is not supposed to claim claim this game?

Should we expect Wisting to claim now?

 

Still, this claim worries me.

what would bleeder expect to get out of claiming?

Did they do it only out of spite? as their post seems to indicate?

Does bugsy(@Bugsy) really want us to choose to die by fire over drowning?

 

I say we try to lynch bugsy, and if possible try to tie with a suspect.

I dont know how the tie is going to work today, but im not voting myself

I would really prefer to vote an elim or bleeder.

for now, bleeder.

 

Edit:

huh, we only need to lynch bugsy once...

they already survived one attack...

does it work like that joe?

Edited June 6, 2020 by Lord_Silberfarben
huh

[DeTess she/her]

17 minutes ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

Edit:

huh, we only need to lynch bugsy once...

they already survived one attack...

does it work like that joe?

Bleeder is auto-protected from attacks though, so they wouldn't have lost their extra life.

As for the claim, it seems bugsy believes that the village can't afford to spend two lynches solely on him, and I'm inclined to agree. Also, as long as the elims have him in a stranglehold, he can't win (as they'll never let him target Winsting), so I assume he's hoping we can do something about that so that he at the very least gets one or two attempts to take out winsting before he's either lynched, or the elims or village disperse the party.

[Mat he/him]

This puts us... in a difficult place to say the least. Now both bleeder and the elims have us tied up. It seems overly-troll for Joe to give Bleeder gambling tycoon, so I'm not exactly certain about that claim, though it probably is true.

I agree that we shouldn't lynch Bugsy right now, there are too many inactives and too many elims. So I'm going to put my vote on BR, because if you remember TJ cleared Silber C4 because TJ said that Silber PM'd Dot asking if they were elim, right here:

Quote

Lord Sil sent a message to Dot (the one I'm replacing) asking if she is elim, so he's a confirmed villager.

So the elim impersonator is much more likely to be Zillah over Silber, also worth noting is the absence of impersonator moves the cycle Zillah was inactive. Still voting BR, though, at least for now.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Guest Coda]

Since there were probably 7-9 elims at the start and three are dead, there are currently 4-6 elims. Since BR is inactive and therefore asleep, only 3-5 could vote to disperse. We are safe from dispersal this round but everyone needs to talk so more people are awake. Just post something, even if it's crem. Like me! Posting meaningless platitudes that sound vaguely helpful is exactly what you should do!

[DeTess she/her]

13 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

 

I agree that we shouldn't lunch Bugsy right now, there are too many inactives and too many elims. So I'm going to put my vote on BR, because if you remember TJ cleared Silber C4 because TJ said that Silber PM'd Dot asking if they were elim, right here:

That is not any sort of hard clear though. I've asked villagers whether they were elims while I was one myself in the past. Asking it of someone that's completely inactive is also odd.

Edit: also, with who are you agreeing? I'm all for a bugsy lynch, just as long as its a tied lynch with an actual suspect.

Edited June 6, 2020 by DeTess

[Mat he/him]

10 minutes ago, DeTess said:

That is not any sort of hard clear though. I've asked villagers whether they were elims while I was one myself in the past. Asking it of someone that's completely inactive is also odd.

Edit: also, with who are you agreeing? I'm all for a bugsy lynch, just as long as its a tied lynch with an actual suspect.

I was under the impression that Silber sent the PM to Dot early C1, before anyone even could be labeled as inactive.

You, Bugsy, just the general ideas. A tied lynch would be great, and now that their cover is blown I doubt the elims would vote manip away from Bugsy.

[Experience he/him]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

I was under the impression that Silber sent the PM to Dot early C1, before anyone even could be labeled as inactive.

You, Bugsy, just the general ideas. A tied lynch would be great, and now that their cover is blown I doubt the elims would vote manip away from Bugsy.

Actually, I think that it would be fairly likely that the elims would vote manip a tie so that only bugsy is lynched. I think that BrightnessRadiant is most likely an elim. The problem is that we will probably have to vote on an active elim this turn or else it will probably turn into lylo. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

We have four dead elims, and of the ones remaining we're now pretty sure of are escort and extortionist. The remaining impersonator is likely, though I don't think guaranteed, to be an elim. Judging from the two votes removed from Pyro, a second elim smuggler is a distinct possibility. We didn't have any votes smuggled this past cycle but it seems an impersonator who didn't vote and might well have been wilson moved Shard's vote to Xino instead of Sart. I know Xino did not take an action last cycle, so he's not any of those roles and presumably not an elim at all. If we do have an elim impersonator and smuggler, we'd want four more votes on an elim than on Bugsy(to account for the impersonator voting for the elim initially), and even then the elims could choose to let the elim die alone.

 @Kynedath, I'm not sure if the elim team has room for a renowned, and in case it doesn't, who did you scan last cycle? With so few awake players, village escorts should be more careful about roleblocking people, though targeting an elim may still be worth it. 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

7 hours ago, DeTess said:

Anyway, i just thought of a bit of analysis I could attempts, but first. @A Joe in the Bush, would you let the elims puppet the actions of inactive team-mates?

Nope. There is no puppetmastering in thos game. That is too powerful an ability.

6 hours ago, Lord_Silberfarben said:

huh, we only need to lynch bugsy once...

they already survived one attack...

does it work like that joe?

Assumin you're asking how many times a Gmbling Bleeder would need to get lynched, it would be twice.

[Sart he/him]

8 hours ago, Bugsy said:

Alright. Time to clear the air and give you all the information I know you've been waiting for. 

I'm Bleeder / Gambling Tycoon. My actions so far have been as follows:

C1: Scan Rae, redirected onto myself

C2: Kill Karnage, he survived

C3: Kill Karnage, he died

C4: Attempt to scan DeTess. Redirected to attack myself.

C5: Roleblocked by an escort

C6: Redirected to attack TJ

The interference in cycles 4 through 6 are almost certainly all the work of the elims. 

I'll admit I wondered why the extortionist who targeted me on C4 didn't say anything. It's pretty obvious now, though. See, the elims intend to use me as a weapon for the remainder of the game. They're going to alternate between extorting and roleblocking me, cycle after cycle, until the game is over. I don't intend to let them, and I'd hazard a guess that most of you don't either. 

I'm sorry to say, village, but killing me is not an option right now. I can only die to the lynch, and even then only if I'm lynched twice. There's no way that happens before the game ends, one way or another. It's about time to ditch the whole dilemma about whether to hunt Bleeder or the elims - there's only one right option for anyone who wants to win. Only 6 votes are needed to disperse the party, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn the elims have nearly that many members still living. I rather doubt all of them are awake and able to vote for dispersal, which is why I haven't given up this game as a lost cause yet. Even still, we're within a cycle or two of game over. We need to hunt elims, and we need to do it fast. 

Elims, a word to the wise: I don't take kindly to being used as a tool. Unifying two factions against you is a good way to lose - just look what happened to me after I killed Flogs on C3. I hope you're confident in your odds right now, because that one kill you got out of me just now? I'm not sure it was worth it for you  

 

First, can I just say I called it? Admittedly you submitted an action Cycle 1, but I was suspecting you very early on.

 

I think we need to lynch Bugsy before we go after the remaining Eliminators. The Constables are currently sitting on a dead man's switch. If Pyro is to be believed, which we need to take with a grain of salt, the Constables know who Winsting is. If the last Elim comes up for the lynch, they can threaten to kill Winsting, throwing the game to Bleeder if he is still alive.

 

I'll also point out that we have done a good job killing Constables. A third of the kills have been constables, which is great. We currently have 17 players alive. Obviously, Bugsy needs to go, and if his claim of having an extra life is legitimate, we'll need to spend two cycles lynching him. Based on the current rate of killing, that will put us down to 14 players. Worst case scenario, the Elims have 4 players left alive, so it would be 4 v 10. That isn't great odds, but it's still totally doable from a village perspective. Furthermore, I think having 4 players alive is unlikely. I could easily see only 2 or 3 Elims being alive, which is even better odds. We've cleared several people already, so I'm not too concerned about this. Plus, lynching Bleeder means we no longer have to worry about dispersal.

 

Finally, if there's one thing that this game has proven, it's that you kill confirmed evil players. Not lynching Pyro was a mistake, and led us down several wrong lynches. I am not in favor of leaving a serial killer running around, especially since we could potentially screw up and hand them the victory.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

13 minutes ago, Sart said:

 

First, can I just say I called it? Admittedly you submitted an action Cycle 1, but I was suspecting you very early on.

 

I think we need to lynch Bugsy before we go after the remaining Eliminators. The Constables are currently sitting on a dead man's switch. If Pyro is to be believed, which we need to take with a grain of salt, the Constables know who Winsting is. If the last Elim comes up for the lynch, they can threaten to kill Winsting, throwing the game to Bleeder if he is still alive.

 

I'll also point out that we have done a good job killing Constables. A third of the kills have been constables, which is great. We currently have 17 players alive. Obviously, Bugsy needs to go, and if his claim of having an extra life is legitimate, we'll need to spend two cycles lynching him. Based on the current rate of killing, that will put us down to 14 players. Worst case scenario, the Elims have 4 players left alive, so it would be 4 v 10. That isn't great odds, but it's still totally doable from a village perspective. Furthermore, I think having 4 players alive is unlikely. I could easily see only 2 or 3 Elims being alive, which is even better odds. We've cleared several people already, so I'm not too concerned about this. Plus, lynching Bleeder means we no longer have to worry about dispersal.

 

Finally, if there's one thing that this game has proven, it's that you kill confirmed evil players. Not lynching Pyro was a mistake, and led us down several wrong lynches. I am not in favor of leaving a serial killer running around, especially since we could potentially screw up and hand them the victory.

Why would the elims throw the game by giving up Winsting? There's no reason for them to favour Bleeder over the village. A last elim could potentially threaten to do so, but by the time we're down to one elim we'll hopefully have gotten around to lynching Bleeder. Now that we know who Bleeder is, we can have village escorts/extortionists prevent a kill on Winsting. It's still worthwhile to get rid of Bleeder in case the safety precautions fail.

Dispersal is not a threat this cycle, but easily could be soon unless the inactive players come back. The elims win if any of them are alive when we disperse, and since the village wins the cycle after all threats are dead there's no good reason for the village to ever vote to disperse. Assuming no inactive players come back and the number of people escorted remains the same, lynching a tycoon!Bugsy combined with a roleblocked Bleeder kill and a successful elim kill leaves us with 9 awake players and still 6 votes needed for dispersal. That's probably fine. Lynching Bugsy again, with Bleeder redirected to a random villager and another villager elim-killed leaves 6 awake players and four votes needed for dispersal, which could be game over. This problem is easily solved by having the inactives come back/Joe get pinch hitters, but it could be an issue if not resolved.

[Mat he/him]

34 minutes ago, Sart said:

 

First, can I just say I called it? Admittedly you submitted an action Cycle 1, but I was suspecting you very early on.

 

I think we need to lynch Bugsy before we go after the remaining Eliminators. The Constables are currently sitting on a dead man's switch. If Pyro is to be believed, which we need to take with a grain of salt, the Constables know who Winsting is. If the last Elim comes up for the lynch, they can threaten to kill Winsting, throwing the game to Bleeder if he is still alive.

 

I'll also point out that we have done a good job killing Constables. A third of the kills have been constables, which is great. We currently have 17 players alive. Obviously, Bugsy needs to go, and if his claim of having an extra life is legitimate, we'll need to spend two cycles lynching him. Based on the current rate of killing, that will put us down to 14 players. Worst case scenario, the Elims have 4 players left alive, so it would be 4 v 10. That isn't great odds, but it's still totally doable from a village perspective. Furthermore, I think having 4 players alive is unlikely. I could easily see only 2 or 3 Elims being alive, which is even better odds. We've cleared several people already, so I'm not too concerned about this. Plus, lynching Bleeder means we no longer have to worry about dispersal.

 

Finally, if there's one thing that this game has proven, it's that you kill confirmed evil players. Not lynching Pyro was a mistake, and led us down several wrong lynches. I am not in favor of leaving a serial killer running around, especially since we could potentially screw up and hand them the victory.

Hmm, you have successfully changed my mind, I knew in the back of my head the math would work out this way but I didn't feel like confirming it myself (though with 4-5 elims left, and the dispersal vote currently at 6 we need to be careful). BR Bugsy

[Emi she/her]

I don’t have a computer right now so I can’t change colors, but I vote for Bugsy.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Emi

[DeTess she/her]

56 minutes ago, Emi said:

I don’t have a computer right now so I can’t change colors, but I vote for Bugsy.

You can change colors from mobile, just type: [color'=red]Vote Here[/color] without the apostrophe (yes, I did just steal that from Sart's signature, why do you ask?)

[Bugsy he/him]

Alright, I’ve done this math once before, guys. It doesn’t work out the way Sart is pretending it does.

There are 17 people remaining. I am one of them. Presumably around 5 of them are eliminators. That means it currently stands at about 11 - 1 - 5.

This cycle, I will be lynched and survive. A villager will be killed. That puts us at 10 - 1 - 5.

The cycle after, I will be lynched again. A villager will be killed by the elims, and another will be killed when they redirect me. That puts us at 8 - 0 - 5.

The best case scenario for the village right now requires them to hunt down every last elim with only a margin of 3 villagers. If that happens, the elims have won. A single mislynch gives them a margin of 6 - 5, and it would take a unanimous village to get any one of them lynched at that point. That’s also assuming perfect activity by the village, but that’s almost certainly not the case, and villagers tend to go inactive more than elims.

There is no winning play for the village that involves killing me. All that does is burn 2 cycles, kill discussion, and open the door for the elims to finally take out Winsting, the village’s most versatile asset. 

Outing myself here wasn’t a sound idea strategically, I’ll be the first to admit. But I’m doing it because I’m pissed, and because being used makes the game not fun.

I don’t care if I win, I want the eliminators to lose. But Sart seems dead set on ensuring that doesn’t happen. I’ve been suspicious of him on and off for awhile now. 

I’m guessing now that the remaining elim team includes Sart, Kynedath, and BR. 

As for my village reads, DeTess and Xino are my two strongest.

If you’re voting on me, you’re going to cause a village loss. But hey, hopefully analysis of it will give us some info on who might want that

Edited June 6, 2020 by Bugsy

[Mat he/him]

@Bugsy

Saying there are 5 elims left would mean a 9 elim team which is almost 1/3 of the players, which seems large to me. We've already said that 8 was the most likely number.

Anyway, voting you out now doesn't necessarily mean we'll vote you out next cycle. It depends all on the number of elims dead. And if you truly don't care if you win then you could kill elims the two cycles, making the margins 8-0-3 instead of 8-0-5 in the worst-case scenario of there being 5 elims left. The margins would be way different, sitting at 9-0-2 assuming there are 4 left.

Even if you don't attack any elims these next two cycles, if there are 4 elims left, the more likely option in my opinion, the current margins would be 12-1-4. A lynch today on you, it would drop to 11-1-4, and then another plus redirect to 9-0-4. Still more then enough odds to win. So I disagree. Voting on you won't cause a village loss unless the absolute worst-case scenario comes to pass.

[Bugsy he/him]

1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

@Bugsy

Saying there are 5 elims left would mean a 9 elim team which is almost 1/3 of the players, which seems large to me. We've already said that 8 was the most likely number.

They have to get up to 2/3 majority, and the village has a lot of people with strong roles. I wouldn't be surprised to see 9 elims.

1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Anyway, voting you out now doesn't necessarily mean we'll vote you out next cycle.

I'm not sure why you think that's the case. Voting me out once and then not again would be foolish - it accomplishes nothing but wasting a lynch and giving the elims a free kill. There's no advantage to doing it whatsoever. Either commit to voting me out twice, or don't vote me out at all  

1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

If you truly don't care if you win then you could kill elims the two cycles, making the margins 8-0-3 instead of 8-0-5 in the worst-case scenario of there being 5 elims left. The margins would be way different, sitting at 9-0-2 assuming there are 4 left.

Except I can't, that's kinda the whole point. I don't get to choose where my kill goes, because the elims are controlling my actions.

1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Even if you don't attack any elims these next two cycles, if there are 4 elims left, the more likely option in my opinion, the current margins would be 12-1-4. A lynch today on you, it would drop to 11-1-4, and then another plus redirect to 9-0-4. Still more then enough odds to win. So I disagree. Voting on you won't cause a village loss unless the absolute worst-case scenario comes to pass.

I disagree here. A breakdown of 9 to 4, when we know the elims have vote manipulation? Plus, all that information Pyro gathered to catch me is information they still have. The moment I'm dead, they target Winsting, then pick off our most useful roles until there's nothing left we can do. 

Killing me is a losing strategy, and it gains you nothing. I won't have a single action where I'm not redirected or roleblocked for the remainder of the game. I'm not going to kill Winsting because I can't kill anyone that I choose to target, so I'm no threat to the village. Voting on me is a waste, at least before you think the elims are all gone. 

Edited June 6, 2020 by Bugsy

[Bugsy he/him]

Hmm. Actually, I'm guessing there were no duplicate roles assigned to the elim team. We know they have each of the following:

Smuggler (Shard of Reading)

* Impersonator (Zillah or Silb)

* Extortionist (Unknown)

* Escort (Unknown)

Renowned (Straw)

Gossip (Fura)

Stalker (Pyro)

I'm guessing that the only role they didn't get was Bartender, because giving them another kill would be unbalanced. 

That means they presumptively still have a Bodyguard and a Gambling Tycoon. That means, much as it pains me, Sart appears to be clear (assuming Kynedath was telling the truth about the scan result).

Kynedath's intervention into the Sart lynch still strikes me as suspect, though, and I think some of @DeTess' analysis earlier backs that up. It could be that they expected Sart would be killed, and wanted credit for defending a villager. I also haven't entirely ruled out a Kynedath / Sart elim team where Sart isn't actually a smuggler, and Kynedath lied to cover them. Whatever the case, that's where my vote will be for now. 

(Sorry for the double post, but it felt substantive enough to warrant it)