Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Bugsy]

25 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Role is secret 

Suspicious in the sense the sense that I'm a 'villager calling out for one bleeder lynch' or an 'elim calling for a bleeder lynch' as I don't seem to be the bleeder 

‘Suspicious’ in the sense that there’s no reason a villager would oppose a chance to get an extra elim. I don’t understand your reasoning, and frankly there doesn’t seem to be any  You just don’t want to lynch an elim

[Megasif]

35 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Can you explain this statement? First, 'elim' suggests you have reason to believe the people I accused are innocent. If so, I'm certain we'd all like to hear why.

Second of all, can you explain in what world someone trying to find the elims is suspected of being one, while someone trying to lynch someone that explicitly isn't an elim should be trusted?

I think the chances are slim but I won't rule out the possibility of you being an elim. But that's all it is, paranoia, if you will. 

For second part:

We're 'trying' to tie an elim with bleeder but that never equates to the certainty of having a definite anti-village faction. Also bussing exists: example Sart in the recent QF. I mean, I think it's good to have healthy paranoia 

[Megasif]

17 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

‘Suspicious’ in the sense that there’s no reason a villager would oppose a chance to get an extra elim. I don’t understand your reasoning, and frankly there doesn’t seem to be any  You just don’t want to lynch an elim

I think it's just that I'm not certain we'd actually be lynching an elim. I don't know what would be a bigger reason than that. 

Also it could easily be that you're lying about one of your roles and in the case of a tie,you can move a vote yourself onto your counter-wagon. 

 

If we are to take what you said as the truth about not being able to perform actions as you want due to being cornered by the elims, then pyro has been leading us on for a good few cycles onto non-elim lynches, which was actually the case. Though I have to give you credit for doing this well after outing as bleeder. 

[DeTess]

11 minutes ago, Megasif said:

I think it's just that I'm not certain we'd actually be lynching an elim. I don't know what would be a bigger reason than that. 

But that's the risk of any lynch. And we do those anyway, because even if it's a miss, at least it weeds out suspects. The push on Silberfarben is actually a good example of this. At least one of Silberfarben and Zillah is evil, so even if the silberfarben lynch is a miss, it'll still give us an elim.

And I find it really odd I need to tell you this. 'We might not get an elim' has never been a reason not to try.

[Megasif]

19 minutes ago, DeTess said:

But that's the risk of any lynch. And we do those anyway, because even if it's a miss, at least it weeds out suspects. The push on Silberfarben is actually a good example of this. At least one of Silberfarben and Zillah is evil, so even if the silberfarben lynch is a miss, it'll still give us an elim.

And I find it really odd I need to tell you this. 'We might not get an elim' has never been a reason not to try.

I agree with everything.

As long as there wasn't an outed anti-village faction(not exactly faction, I know) which isn't a benefit keeping alive for village. And they still don't die may I remind you. Bugsy has also admitted (as a half- threat (or maybe a full-on threat), I believe) they will continue placing kills which will either be redirected to villagers or he will be roleblocked.

Anyways, it's just my opinion on the current course of action but nothing that I'm 100% on, so I do concede, we can try lynching an elim but I have a feeling either this or next cycle may be make or break for village regarding bleeder. 

Edited June 7, 2020 by Megasif

[Kynedath]

Sorry I've been off guys, but for the sake of my mental health I built a giant blanket fort in my room yesterday and didn't really get a chance to get on.

I scanned Experience last cycle. They came back as bodyguard. Experience I'm sorry if I shouldn't have revealed that, I understand it makes you a target, but if I had said "I can't say" then it would have put a target on your back anyway since the elims would know it's a valuable role. This way the village gets the info, I don't look suspicious by holding back information, and the elims might not kill you since that would cast suspicion onto you. Also I think you can protect yourself? So that makes it harder to kill you and more of an IKYN

[A Joe in the Bush]

Bodyguards can't protect themself.

[DeTess]

22 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Anyways, it's just my opinion on the current course of action but nothing that I'm 100% on, so I do concede, we can try lynching an elim but I have a feeling either this or next cycle may be make or break for village regarding bleeder. 

We have had three active escorts though, and I doubt all of them are evil. So I think bleeder can be contained even if we fail at tying them up twice in a row. Like I've been saying though, I'm not saying 'ignore bleeder' I'm saying 'tie bleeder with a suspected elim to get the double lynch'. If we focus fully on bleeder, it means we're handing two to three kills (depending on whether a villager can roleblock bleeder next turn) to the elims for free.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, DeTess said:

I'm fine with a Silberfarben lynch as well. Either Silberfarben or Coda is fine with me, and if Silberfarben is more likely to happen this cycle then that's the lynch I'll settle for, especially because, even in the unlikely event of Silberfarben being village, we still get an elim (Zillah, in this case) out of the deal because of TJ's role analysis.

C6 when I said that Silb wasn't the one who attacked you, it was because I'd asked that Silb be redirected to Bugsy C5 at Pyro's request. Since the extortionist's action was successful but Bugsy's vote was not moved, Silb can't be an impersonator. It's possible I'm being fooled here, since it was Pyro who directed me to this extortionist(Winsting) C5, presumably after the elims had decided they weren't going to help the village find Bleeder. One possibility is that impersonator!Silb submitted an action to redirect someone's vote to Xino, and the target of Xino remained even after Winsting's redirect. I'm not entirely sure if that's how things work. Another possibility is that the person I contacted wasn't Winsting, though that's not super likely.

[Bugsy]

2 hours ago, Megasif said:

Bugsy has also admitted (as a half- threat (or maybe a full-on threat), I believe) they will continue placing kills which will either be redirected to villagers or he will be roleblocked

...where have you seen me say this? I’ve explicitly said that even if I don’t submit a kill, the elims can force me to use a kill action anyways. 

[Megasif]

 

2 hours ago, DeTess said:

We have had three active escorts though, and I doubt all of them are evil. So I think bleeder can be contained even if we fail at tying them up twice in a row. Like I've been saying though, I'm not saying 'ignore bleeder' I'm saying 'tie bleeder with a suspected elim to get the double lynch'. If we focus fully on bleeder, it means we're handing two to three kills (depending on whether a villager can roleblock bleeder next turn) to the elims for free.

 

I just reread OP and realised that upon a tie, both parties are lynched, rather than being random. My mistake.

 

40 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

...where have you seen me say this? I’ve explicitly said that even if I don’t submit a kill, the elims can force me to use a kill action anyways. 

On 6/6/2020 at 10:12 PM, Bugsy said:

Alright, I’ve done this math once before, guys. It doesn’t work out the way Sart is pretending it does.

There are 17 people remaining. I am one of them. Presumably around 5 of them are eliminators. That means it currently stands at about 11 - 1 - 5.

This cycle, I will be lynched and survive. A villager will be killed. That puts us at 10 - 1 - 5.

The cycle after, I will be lynched again. A villager will be killed by the elims, and another will be killed when they redirect me. That puts us at 8 - 0 - 5.

wait, I read the bolded as you saying you're submitting a kill whenever possible. My mistake.

Edited June 7, 2020 by Megasif

[Mist]

Could I get a vote count? 

[Mat]

5 hours ago, Megasif said:

Best way to go from here (in my opinion)

We lynch bugsy once, let night actions resolve, and see where we are tomorrow. 

Reason:

Busgy is over-exagerating our bad position. Quite a few elims are down. Best thing for bugsy is delay and try to hunt elim, because with a decent case on him by one the elims as a bleeder and he could be a runaway wagon. Plus he gets more time to get winstig.

Honestly if I were bleeder and I didn't want to be a tool for the elims, I wouldn't submit an action to be redirected. Bugsy has made this attempt and fair enough. Time to level the ground and at least bring bugsy in danger. Everyone is playing to their win-con. Pyro and bugsy were and are both furthering their wincon. And it is definitely more fun 

Bugsy

 This. Thank you.

50 minutes ago, Mist said:

Could I get a vote count? 

• br (1): mist 
• bugsy (4): silber, sart, megasif, matrim
• silber (3): bugsy, detess, experience 
• detess (1): emi 

(Yes, it is wilson-ifyed. Why do you ask?)

So, after further consideration, I am moving my vote back off BR and back onto Bugsy, partly because I don't see the Silber lynch and partly because I realized from the elim perspective that having Bleeder as a sort of weapon for them to use is a huge advantage, and in the event of a tie might go as far as to save Bugsy to get that extra kill every cycle. So my vote is moving back to keep Bugsy ahead to preserve the lynch and make sure that doesn't happen.

[Mist]

BR

I looked at Silberfaben. He hasn't been very alignment indicative. Aside from that, no reason for suspicion that I noticed. 

Bugsy, however, has claimed Bleeder. While Bleeder is alive, we can lose in one cycle. I'm more concerned about Bleeder than Silber.

[Bugsy]

1 hour ago, Megasif said:

I just reread OP and realised that upon a tie, both parties are lynched, rather than being random. My mistake

So are you willing to help us get a tie by voting on Silber?  

19 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

partly because I don't see the Silber lynch

Well, we know that either Silber or Zillah are elims, so even if it isn’t Silber the lynch benefits the village.

20 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

having Bleeder as a sort of weapon for them to use is a huge advantage, and in the event of a tie might go as far as to save Bugsy to get that extra kill every cycle.

They don’t get that extra kill if a village escort targets me on even-numbered cycles (since that’s when they’ve been redirecting me, and a roleblock would prevent that)

2 minutes ago, Mist said:

I looked at Silberfaben. He hasn't been very alignment indicative. Aside from that, no reason for suspicion that I noticed. 

Well, we know that either Silb or Zillah are the elims’ vote manip. So it’s kinda urgent that we figure out which and take them out.

4 minutes ago, Mist said:

Bugsy, however, has claimed Bleeder. While Bleeder is alive, we can lose in one cycle.

For like the 5th time this cycle, no you can’t  

I haven’t been able to take an action in the past 3 cycles because I’ve been redirected and roleblocked every night. That’s not going to stop now that I’ve publicly claimed Bleeder. There’s no way I can kill Winsting, because there’s no way I can kill anyone  

7 minutes ago, Mist said:

I'm more concerned about Bleeder than Silber.

It’s not an either-or. The idea is to cause a tie, which makes both me and Silber die. That way, you get the best of both worlds  

[Megasif]

Bugsy, I may have a change of heart. I feel like I owe you a tie at least.

However, I reread the rules and we can't win together. If we disperse party, then even with one elim alive, elims win. We can't risk it because we are not told if all elims are gone. Plus we may not have enough awake players. If winsting dies, you win as game's over. You're right that you can't do anything, but elims can still kill winsting (by accident).

Hmm

[A Joe in the Bush]

A few people have asked this, and I know I clarified it earlier, but I cannot find nor remember my decision, so this Clarification overwrites previous Clarifications.

Extortionists only change the primary target of their victim. This means that if an Extortionist (Player A) targets another Extortionist or an Impersonator, the Extortionist only changes who their victim (Player B ) targets (Player C), not who their Victim (Player B ) choose to be targeted (Player D).

Example:

Impersonator Wilson has Alvron vote for Mailliw. Extortionist HemaHead makes Wilson target Straw. Wilson now moves Straw's vote to Mailliw.

I hope this clears things up.

[Bugsy]

30 minutes ago, Megasif said:

Bugsy, I may have a change of heart. I feel like I owe you a tie at least.

However, I reread the rules and we can't win together. If we disperse party, then even with one elim alive, elims win. We can't risk it because we are not told if all elims are gone. Plus we may not have enough awake players. If winsting dies, you win as game's over. You're right that you can't do anything, but elims can still kill winsting (by accident).

Hmm

I’m not aiming to win. I fully expect and am resigned to being killed at some point this game. I just want vengeance on the elims before then

And the elims know who Winsting is, so it’s doubtful they’d kill him accidentally. I think the bigger village concern is that if I die, they can kill Winsting freely, and take out a big village asset in doing so

[xinoehp512]

Is Winsting an asset? I thought it was just a random role given to a villager with no special benefits.

[Bugsy]

1 minute ago, xinoehp512 said:

Is Winsting an asset? I thought it was just a random role given to a villager with no special benefits.

Pretty sure Winsting can use any non-faction ability 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Bugsy

[A Joe in the Bush]

Winsting is a Smuggler/Impersonator/Stalker/Renowned/Bodyguard/Bartender/Escort. Yet he can only take one action per turn.

[Bugsy]

Vote Count:

Bugsy (5): silber, sart, megasif, matrim, mist

Silber (3): bugsy, detess, experience 

DeTess (1): emi 

@Sart @Megasif @Matrim's_Dice @Mist, if you want this cycle to actually be productive for the village, please move your vote to Silber. He's one of two possibilities for the elim's remaining vote manipulation, and if we can remove that ability from their arsenal, we can ensure that future village lynch efforts are way more successful. If we kill him and he's an elim, perfect. If not, we know for a fact that Zillah is, per TJ's analysis and confirmed by DeTess.

@Emi, DeTess is about as cleared as you can get. Please consider switching your vote to Silber, that's something that would be super helpful to the village. 

@xinoehp512, @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Kynedath, you all are presumptive villagers. You have a chance to benefit the village here. Silber - a likely elim - started the lynch train on me, it was continued under false pretenses, and then it was shored up when people started switching off. That's all super sketchy, and I'm sure some of your biggest elim suspects are a part of it. They're trying to save Silber. Please vote before the cycle ends, and at least give the village a tie.

The elims have vote manipulation left. So does Sart. I think the breakdown most likely to give us a tie is when Silber has 2 more votes than me, and that means we need a swing of 4. If anyone voting for me right now swaps trains, they'd account for half of what we need. Please do this before the cycle end - it literally costs the village nothing, and could be super advantageous. 

[xinoehp512]

Do I even know anymore what to do? Not really. But lynching elims sounds good. Silber.

[Kynedath]

Lord Silberfarben

EDIT: I should probably say why. Not many huge reasons, I just don't see a reason for Bugsy to be lying, and their math seems really sound. So I'm going to trust them since they have less to gain from leading us on a wild goose chase than Pyro did. Additionally their tone seems really guenuine.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Kynedath

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

12 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

If you want this cycle to actually be productive for the village, please move your vote to Silber. He's one of two possibilities for the elim's remaining vote manipulation, and if we can remove that ability from their arsenal, we can ensure that future village lynch efforts are way more successful. If we kill him and he's an elim, perfect. If not, we know for a fact that Zillah is, per TJ's analysis and confirmed by DeTess.

So Silber could be an impersonator, but if so Pyro spent a lot of effort trying to convince me that was not the case back before there was reason to believe Silber was an impersonator. If Pyro and Silber were teammates, I'd assume Pyro would want to live C5 and attempt to do so be having a vote be moved from Pyro to Xino. This didn't happen because Pyro made sure Silber's action was redirected to you, who was already voting for Xino. This ultimately wouldn't have mattered, but had the votes stayed the same as they were when I got Pyro's PM, impersonating a vote to Xino would have saved Pyro. Is there a reason for Silber being an elim other than being an impersonator?