Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Kynedath]

On 6/2/2020 at 0:37 PM, The Young Pyromancer said:

As for Kynedath, they're not an elim. We'll scan them.

Also, Devotary is hard-cleared, not just soft-cleared.

Okay, so just to be 100% clear he said I wasn't an elim, and that scan was to find out if I was bleeder. Not saying that Pyro should be trusted, but in this case he should be! 

The second part looks a bit suspicious to me? Did he ever say why? If not then that could be protecting a teammate.

[|TJ| he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Devotary: I feel this is controversial, but I can't shake the off feeling I have about one exchange with him and Pyro. Devotary made normal analysis, and Pyro said right after, "Good analysis, Devotary!" his involvement with Fura was late and could be bussing. Gut read.

 

It's your gut read, and you've got to believe in it, but I disagree. Fura wasn't lynched. He was bartender-killed by Striker, so bussing wouldn't come into play. Devotary is a Stalker as well, and I don't think elims would have two Stalkers. but anything is possible. Again, this is should a late lynch (if there even is one)

I'd like to ask @Devotary of Spontaneity history of Stalking (or at least the last cycle). We might have no way to confirm them, but maybe we can infer something out of them.

[Mat he/him]

Just now, Kynedath said:

Okay, so just to be 100% clear he said I wasn't an elim, and that scan was to find out if I was bleeder. Not saying that Pyro should be trusted, but in this case he should be! 

The second part looks a bit suspicious to me? Did he ever say why? If not then that could be protecting a teammate.

I actually think both statements are protecting a teammate.

[Kynedath]

Just now, Matrim's_Dice said:

I actually think both statements are protecting a teammate.

You know what, fair enough.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

I'd like to ask @Devotary of Spontaneity history of Stalking (or at least the last cycle). We might have no way to confirm them, but maybe we can infer something out of them.

C1: Fura targeted Araris C2: Elkanah targeted Karnage C3: DeTess targeted nobody C4: Redirected to Megasif, who targeted nobody C5: Kynedath targeted Sart.

[|TJ| he/him]

7 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

C1: Fura targeted Araris C2: Elkanah targeted Karnage C3: DeTess targeted nobody C4: Redirected to Megasif, who targeted nobody C5: Kynedath targeted Sart.

C1 and C2 are pretty solid. There's no reason to target Fura is Devotary is elim. It's a waste of an action and I don't think any elim would do that as their very first move. Bussing so early in the game without a lynch makes no sense. 

@DeTess can you confirm C3 action?

@Megasif can you confirm C4 action? Devotary, whom did you actually target in C4? If Devotary flips village, we'll have proof for the existence of elim Extortionist. 

C5 is common knowledge though it's nice to get confirmation.

Edited June 4, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

C1 and C2 are pretty solid. There's no reason to target Fura is Devotary isn't elim. It's a waste of an action and I don't think any elim would do that in their very first move. Bussing so early in the game without a lynch makes no sense. 

@DeTess can you confirm C3 action?

@Megasif can you confirm C4 action? Devotary, whom did you actually target in C4? If Devotary flips village, we'll have proof for the existence of elim Extortionist. 

C5 is common knowledge though it's nice to get confirmation.

I tried to target Kynedath C4 as well, and Joe let me target him again since I was redirected.

[DeTess she/her]

1 hour ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

The thing is, I can't find where Pyro said the elims cleared DeTess. Now that Pyro is lynched we have no way of confirming that, unless another elim spokesperson wants to step forward, someone that everyone is already suspicious of.

 

 

1 hour ago, TJ Shade said:

 

@DeTess can you confirm C3 action?

 

Yes, I did not submit an action that cycle.

[little wilson she/her]

me just confirm there be impersonate c2. devotary mentioned it. this not me. me no impersonate c2 or c3. probs elim impersonate.

impersonating the villagers. impersonating the peasants. kinda like trogdor burninating ya know? only impersonating instead of burninating?

me go back to work now.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Are we supposed to take the write-ups seriously? Has Joe ever hidden hints in them? Because I'm seeing a lot of hints in this one.

Possible hint that xino was escorted?

@DeTess I don't know if you have an attacking role. Did you target a possible Bleeder suspect in C1 or C2?

Why is the A capitalised?  Something related to Bugsy? 

Or I'm breaking my head for no reason and getting trolled.

There are no hints in the writeup. Doing accurate writeups with hints is too restrictive, i just write whatever.

5 hours ago, little wilson said:

grrrrrr knew me shouldnt have impersonated. had this feeeeeling it would be tie without. feeling was right. me doubly sad now.

there was impersonate c2 right? that not me if so.

unlike me joejoe like to capitalize words for no reason.

i'm getting better!

4 hours ago, DeTess said:

I agree that Sart is not an elim. Pyro was going after him too hard for that to be the case. And with Kynedath's scan I think that means they can't be Bleeder. @A Joe in the Bush, is a renowned guaranteed tog et the other role on their second scan?

Yes. If they scan a person twice, they are guaranteed to get both roles.

[Mat he/him]

Only two pages so far! New record!

Also, has @xinoehp512 posted yet? I'd like to see his thoughts right about now.

---

Edit: *3 hours later* Seriously though, where is everybody? I mean, Xino/others are active on the LG...( @xinoehp512)

Edit Two: *2 1/2 more hours later* Helllooooooo..... The LG can only provide so much entertainment............... I hope there are posts when I wake up in 9 hours or so.

Edited June 5, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[|TJ| he/him]

Alright people have been distracted by LG66, so let me try to bring some attention back here by some cycle-by-cycle analysis to figure out who's what.

Cycle 1

Before vote manip:

Fura (2): DeTess, Straw
God King (3): Archivist, Experience, Reading
Karnage (7): Araris, Emi, Fura, Pyromancer, Sart, Striker, BrightnessRadiant
Matrim (1): Hemalurgic
Pyromancer (1): God King
Sart (4): Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim, Xino
Straw(2): Orlok, wilson

After vote manip:

Fura (1): Straw
God King (3): Archivist, Experience, Reading
Karnage (6): Araris, Brightness, Emi, Fura, Pyromancer, Sart, Striker
Matrim (1): Hemalurgic
Pyromancer (1): God King
Sart (4): DeTess, Karnage, Matrim, Xino
Straw(1): Arraenae, Orlok, wilson 

DeTess' vote was moved off from Fura to Sart. Arraenae's vote was moved off  from Sart to Straw. @little wilson, I assume you moved DeTess' vote? It actually doesn't matter. Since this shows 2 impersonators involved, there should be at least 2 cancelled votes. By looking at votes count after manip, we can see 3 votes cancelled. 2 from Straw and 1 from Karnage. We know wilson's vote on Straw was cancelled because of her impersonation. We know Arraenae and Orlok aren't impersonators, and that shows one of their votes was smuggled. The remaining cancelled vote is on Karnage. So the impersonator should have voted for him. That is, the impersonator is one among Araris, BrightnessRadiant, Emi, Fura, Pyromance, Sart and Striker. By process of elimination (Araris = Gossip, Fura = Gossip, Pyro = Stalker, Striker = Bodyguard/Bartender, Sart = Smuggler), we are left with BrightnessRadiant and Emi. BR's already suspicious behaviour makes her the no.1 candidate for elim Impersonator.

Result:

Role	From	To	Subject	Align	Cycle	Name
Impersonator1	Fura	Sart	DeTess	Elim	C1	BR? Emi?
Impersonator2	Sart	Straw	Arraenae	Village	C1	little wilson?
Smuggler1	Straw		Orlok? Arraenae?	Elim?	C1	?

Makes sense?

EDIT: Actually, Emi role-claimed Stalker.

Quote

So, I'm actually a stalker. Yes, I know, I shouldn't say it, but I just can't figure out, what else I would say. So, I stalked @Karnage, who really targeted straw. Because straw is alive, I guess, that Karnage isn't lying...

So @BrightnessRadiant confirmed elim?

Edited June 5, 2020 by TJ Shade

[DeTess she/her]

@TJ Shade, Elkanah claimed to have smuggled Araris' vote off C1. For your analysis to work there, there'd have to be another smuggler that hit one of Orlok and Arraenae, while the impersonator didn't vote at all. That means the impersonator has to be one of: silber, coda, kynedath, zillah, mist, devotary, TJ, megasif or bugsy. Megasif and TJ only subbed in later, so it's probably not them, and Devotary and Kynedath have role-claims, meaning that it is one of Silber, Coda, Zillah, Mist or Bugsy.

Anyway, I want to start with another pass of the entire player list, seeing who we can rule out from being elims:

Quote

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )

Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )

Shard ( Experience )

Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading )

Coda ( Coda )

Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )

Matrim ( Matrim's_Dice )

Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )

Archivald ( The_Archivist )

Lady Lumen ( Mist )

Emi ( Emi )

TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )

LenSaar ( Devotary of Spontaneity )

Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King )

Julius ( TJ Shade )

Hammond ( Megasif )

mad watcher ( little wilson )

Lady Telina Maladroi ( DeTess )

Lord Laborn ( Bugsy )

a smart guy ( Sart )

So, off these, Little wilson is pretty much cleared because of her efforts in hunting the elims. The same goes for Devotary as they provided the information that got furami suspected and killed. I know I'm not an elim either, and I think today's attack on me should confirm that for everyone else as well.

Pyro suspected Sart of being bleeder quite heavily, so we can drop him from the 'elim suspect' list as well.

I think that's all the ones that I consider to be 99.7% likely to be not an elim. There's a couple more people I think I can exclude however. Matrim's Dice had a little argument with Pyro that seemed really genuine, so I think they can be dropped off the list. Pyro also went after Bugsy in his last cycle alive, and the push for pyro's lynch hadn't really taken off yet. Still, Bugsy would be a less certain clear here.

That leaves us with 14 potential suspects:

Quote

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )

Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )

Shard ( Experience )

Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading )

Coda ( Coda )

Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )

Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )

Archivald ( The_Archivist )

Lady Lumen ( Mist )

Emi ( Emi )

TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )

Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King )

Julius ( TJ Shade )

Hammond ( Megasif )

From these I've got a fairly good gut read on TJ and, at the moment, a big shrug on the alignment of all the others. Given my addendum to TJ's analysis above, I feel like lynching someone in the overlap between 'possible elim' and 'possible elim impersonator'. That means one of Silber, Coda, Zillah or Mist

Silber

Silber has been very NAI, but there are some things that stood out to me. He made something off a push for a lynch on karnage after they'd outed straw as an elim, which isn't a good look. For the rest they pushed for a pyro lynch several times which is NAI, and once for Xino based on a bleeder suspicion.

Overall, I'm leading somewhat elim on Silber, but he's difficult to read. However, I don't think he and XIno can both be elims, so if one flips as an elim, it'll clear the other.

Coda

Looking at his posts that I haven't looked at yet, there's another interesting turnaround. Back during the Elkanah lynch he was very much against doing a bleeder-based lynch, and tried to go after pyro (NAI), but then the cycle after that eh was in favor of spending time to get bleeder, warning against the dangers of a living bleeder.

Overall, my read on Coda is unchanged as still being a mild elim read.

Zillah

Not muhc more content since the last time I looked at her, but Fura has flipped elim, so I'm leaning more village on them.

Mist

Mist has been doing a decent bit of analysis. She also spotted the problem with Pyro far sooner than I did. Her statements so far seems sensible, but we need some lynches in her list of suspicions to be able to properly read her. Though I do think elim!mist would have known her team had already killed Rae  

neutral, leaning slightly village.

So, of these, I think I'd be most in favor of either a coda or Silver lynch. I think a lord_Silberfarben lynch could be the more informative of the two of he flips elim as it'll clear Xino imho.

Edited June 5, 2020 by DeTess

[|TJ| he/him]

33 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@TJ Shade, Elkanah claimed to have smuggled Araris' vote off C1. For your analysis to work there, there'd ahve to eb another smuggler that hit one of Orlok and Arraenae, while the impersonator didn't vote at all. That means the impersonator has to be one of : silber, coda, kynedath, zillah, mist, devotary, TJ, megasif or bugsy. Megasif and TJ only subbed in later, so it's probably not them, and Devotary and Kynedath have role-claims, meaning that it is one of Silber, Coda, Zillah, Mist or Bugsy.

 

Wait I don't think I understand this. Two votes were clearly moved completely. That means there'd have to be 2 impersonators right? If Elkanah smuggled Araris' vote, it doesn't add up. The only thing I can think of is that Elkanah was role-blocked. 

18 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Also, does anyone know how many of the five asleep people fell asleep because of inactivity vs escorts?

I checked the activity of people and - 

C1, C2, C3 had 2 escorts. C4 and C5 had 3 escorts. This leads me to believe that there's a probability that @Megasif is one since they joined in C3. I don't know about their alignment, but DeTess said Pyro was ready to give up an inactive teammate? It could have been Hammond. 

I'll do Cycle 2 soon.

[DeTess she/her]

14 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Wait I don't think I understand this. Two votes were clearly moved completely. That means there'd have to be 2 impersonators right? If Elkanah smuggled Araris' vote, it doesn't add up. The only thing I can think of is that Elkanah was role-blocked. 

I agree that there need to be two impersonators, but as I mentioned one impersonator could not have voted, which means their disappearing vote would not appear. Also, we know about Elkanah because he got stalked, and I don't think that would have given a result if he was role-blocked ( @A Joe in the Bush, would someone that gets roleblocked show up as having targeted someone by a stalker).

So in the C1 case, we have two impersonators, one of which is wilson, and the other didn't vote, and two smugglers, one being elkanah removing one vote from Straw, and one removing one of Rae or Orlok (probably Orlok) from Straw.

Edited June 5, 2020 by DeTess

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Just now, DeTess said:

I agree that there need to be two impersonators, but as I mentioned one impersonator could not have voted, which means their disappearing vote would not appear. Also, we know about Elkanah because he got stalked, and I don't think that would have given a result if he was role-blocked ( @A Joe in the Bush, would someone that gets roleblocked show up as having targeted someone by a stalker).

Players who are roleblocked stay home. Stalkers visiting them see them just staying home.

Also, uh, turns out there are 21 living players right now, not 20? So only 2 players were escorted last night. And the night before. My bad. (Also we've had 5 full turns already, how are only 9 of you dead. Pick up the pace.)

[|TJ| he/him]

32 minutes ago, DeTess said:

So in the C1 case, we have two impersonators, one of which is wilson, and the other didn't vote, and two smugglers, one being elkanah removing one vote from Straw, and one removing one of Rae or Orlok (probably Orlok) from Straw.

Okay yeah, got it now. 

28 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Also, uh, turns out there are 21 living players right now, not 20? So only 2 players were escorted last night. And the night before. My bad. (Also we've had 5 full turns already, how are only 9 of you dead. Pick up the pace.)

Wait that doesn't seem right. 10 people are dead as of now. 1+4+3+1+1 died in respective cycles. So there should be 20 people alive. 

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

1 minute ago, TJ Shade said:

Okay yeah, got it now. 

Wait that doesn't seem right. 10 people are dead as of now. 1+4+3+1+1 died in respective cycles. So there should be 20 people alive. 

That, is also correct? uhh, I don't know what is going on anymore. There were exactly 3 inactive players in turn 5, and exactly two players escorted. At this point I don't know who made an error where.

[|TJ| he/him]

2 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

That, is also correct? uhh, I don't know what is going on anymore. There were exactly 3 inactive players in turn 5, and exactly two players escorted. At this point I don't know who made an error where.

Who were the inactive players in C5? BR, Emi, and..?

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

The_Archivist. His last post in the game was two hours after Turn 4 AM started.

[|TJ| he/him]

It still adds up. 15 awake + 2 escorted + 3 inactive + 10 dead = 30.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

Then that's probably correct.

[Coffeecat she/her]

Hm, again, please ping me if you are going to vote on me.

On 6/5/2020 at 6:56 PM, DeTess said:

Silber has been very NAI, but there are some things that stood out to me. He made something off a push for a lynch on karnage after they'd outed straw as an elim, which isn't a good look. For the rest they pushed for a pyro lynch several times which is NAI, and once for Xino based on a bleeder suspicion.

Overall, I'm leading somewhat elim on Silber, but he's difficult to read. However, I don't think he and XIno can both be elims, so if one flips as an elim, it'll clear the other.

Hmm...

I don't remember that.

You mean when I asked why we weren't lynching karnage?

I just found it weird that everyone had the 'Kill whomever survives a kill' mentality, and the first person who survives is believed when they claim flogs.

I found the message

Quote

I propose that if anyone survives a night kill from now on, we lynch them. This obviously excludes Karnage. We can't afford to have Bleeder win, and though it might kill discussion, we'll need to focus our lynch on her.

Basically, i just asked why: "lets kill everyone who survives a night kill, oh but not karnage."

at that moment i thought bleeder might have claimed flogs because they were exposed.

Again, there were about 200 posts that day, and i missed basically everything about straw and pyro.

 

 

[|TJ| he/him]

Cycle 2

Votes before manip:

Fura (1): Elkanah
Karnage (1): Straw
Orlok (1): Pyro
Pyro (1): Fura
Straw (20): Archivist, Arraenae, Brightness, Bugsy, Devotary, Emi, Experience, God King, Karnage, Kynedath, Matrim, Mist, Orlok, Reading, Sart, Striker, Wilson, Xino, DeTess, Coda

Votes after manip:

Fura (2): DeTess, Elkanah
Karnage (1): Straw
Orlok (1): Pyro
Pyro (1): Coda, Fura
Straw (16): Archivist, Arraenae, Brightness, Bugsy, Devotary, Emi, Experience, God King, Karnage, Kynedath, Matrim, Mist, Orlok, Reading, Sart, Striker, Wilson, Xino

Again we have 2 votes completely moved. DeTess from Straw to Fura. Coda from Straw to Pyro. The thing is, wilson claimed not to have used her action this cycle. This means there's yet another Impersonator (other than the one found in C1). DeTess has already established that C1 Impersonator moves vote without voting themselves. Only 5 people did not vote in C2 - Dot, Hammond, Lord Sil, Zillah, and HH. 2 were inactive (Dot and Hammond), two were escorted, and the remaining one is our impersonator. Lord Sil and Zillah are the only ones who did not vote in both C1 and C2, so the elim Impersonator is one of them. Of course, if C1 Impersonator decided to vote this turn, none of this hold up, lol

Now for the other Impersonator is among the voters of Straw. Why didn't the new Impersonator use their action in C1? They were probably role-blocked. The possible role-block victims of C1 who voted for Straw in C2 are Bugsy, Devotary, Kynedath and Mist. Each one of them have revealed their roles except Mist, who is probably Impersonator no. 2. Again. this fails if the Impersonator was not role-blocked in C1 and simply chose not to use their action.

That leaves 3 votes that were Smuggled off Straw. 2 of these were probably elims. The third one, I do not know. It's should be Elkanah, but didn't he target Karnage in this cycle? 

[Experience he/him]

Pyro (1) Matrim's Dice

Xino (1) TJ Shade

Sart (1) Shard of Reading

Silber (1) Detess

Shard of Reading (1) Experience

There's the vote count. I'm not really sure why Shard of reading placed a vote on sart, as I'm pretty sure they aren't an elim because pyro pushed for a sart lynch. This vote just seems off to me, and I'm going to place my vote on Shard of Reading for now. (Please tell me if I'm missing anything).