Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Mat he/him]

14 minutes ago, Experience said:

Pyro (1) Matrim's Dice

Xino (1) TJ Shade

Sart (1) Shard of Reading

Silber (1) Detess

Shard of Reading (1) Experience

There's the vote count. I'm not really sure why Shard of reading placed a vote on sart, as I'm pretty sure they aren't an elim because pyro pushed for a sart lynch. This vote just seems off to me, and I'm going to place my vote on Shard of Reading for now. (Please tell me if I'm missing anything).

That’s wrong, I’m on mobile rn so I can’t correct you for 30 min or so. But I voted for Xino, as Pyro is dead... Otherwise I think it’s right.

[|TJ| he/him]

Xino (2) - TJ, Matrim

Sart (1) -  Shard of Reading

Silber (1) -  DeTess

Shard of Reading (1) -  Experience

There you go.

[Experience he/him]

7 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

That’s wrong, I’m on mobile rn so I can’t correct you for 30 min or so. But I voted for Xino, as Pyro is dead... Otherwise I think it’s right.

Oh, lol. I'm not quite sure how I missed that.   

[little wilson she/her]

dont remember who but someone said they smuggled raes vote (sart?). me impersonate rae. totes missed second impersonate both c1 and c2 so that interesting. me like both reading and xino lynchy lynch.

probs wont vote since using impersonate and since elims almost certainly have impersonate and likely smuggler want to make it harder for them to be sure about vote manip.

[|TJ| he/him]

At this point, I'm convinced there were 3 Impersonators and 4 Smugglers in the game. little wilson, Lord Sil/Zillah and another one whom we shall call Mist? make up the Impersonators. Sart, Elkanah, Shard of Reading and another one whom we shall call x?. I'm ignoring Elkanah from this point onwards as he dies after this turn.

Cycle 3 

Before:

Pyro (5): Elkanah, Arraenae, TGK, Coda, Emi
Elkanah (14): wilson, Matrim, Kynedath, HH, Karnage, Devotary, Pyro, Sart, Xino, DeTess, Bugsy, Archivist, Mist, Brightness

After:

Pyro (5): Elkanah, Arraenae, TGK, Coda, Emi
Elkanah (13): wilson, Matrim, Kynedath, HH, Karnage, Devotary, Pyro, Sart, Xino, DeTess, Bugsy, Archivist, Mist, Brightness

Just a simple Smuggling of votes. Lord Sil/Zillah, little wilson, and Mist? did not use their action. Sart did not Smuggle either. Shard of Reading or x? used the action. Mostly x?

Cycle 4

Before:

Coda (2): DeTess, TJ Shade
Pyro (3): Silberfarben, The God King, Emi, 
HH (5): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy, Kynedath, Pyro
Wilson (0): Wilson
Sart (4): Bugsy, Matrim, Experience, HH

After:

Coda (2): DeTess, TJ Shade
Pyro (4): Silberfarben, The God King, Emi, HH
HH (5): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy, Kynedath, Pyro
Wilson (0): Wilson
Sart (3): Bugsy, Matrim, Experience 

Just the one wilson impersonation in this cycle. Sart was role-blocked. Reading and x? were silent. 

Cycle 5

Before:

Pyro (6): DeTess, Experience, Kynedath, Sart, TJ, Xino

Sart (0): Wilson

Xino (5): Bugsy, Matrim, Pyro, Reading, Silberfarben

After:

Pyro (5): DeTess, Experience, Kynedath, Sart, Silberfarben, TJ, Xino

Sart (0): Wilson

Xino (3): Bugsy, Matrim, Pyro, Reading

wilson moved Lord Sil's vote from Xino to Pyro. Shard of Reading and x? Smuggled vote off Pyro. Sart took one off Xino. 

EDIT:

Interesting thing to note is Mist? used their Impersonation only once - in Cycle 2. Looking at the votes, Mist did not vote in C1, C4 and C5, so Mist? could definitely be Mist. Don't know 

I'm more convinced that Zillah side of Lord Sil/Zillah is the Impersonator. They have not voted in any of the cycles (I believe) and used their actions in only C1 and C2. Lord Sil has been voting in these past cycles. 

Shard of Reading is confirmed elim Smuggler. There's no excuse for the Sart vote this cycle.

Now for the mysterious case of x?. They used their action possibly in C2, C3 and C5. It's not Megasif (inactive in C2), it's not Archivist or BR (inactive in C5). The possible names I could think of is The God King and Experience. Experience's eagerness to lynch Reading makes me believe it's not him. It could also be Coda with Gossip/Smuggler double role or (though I doubt) Xino with Gambling Tycoon/Smuggler. Personally, I believe Xino is not Gambling Tycoon, and he is my prime Bleeder suspect. Him or Bugsy. 

Edited June 5, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Bugsy he/him]

On 6/4/2020 at 0:44 PM, TJ Shade said:

It's your gut read, and you've got to believe in it, but I disagree. Fura wasn't lynched. He was bartender-killed by Striker, so bussing wouldn't come into play. Devotary is a Stalker as well, and I don't think elims would have two Stalkers. but anything is possible. Again, this is should a late lynch (if there even is one)

I'd like to ask @Devotary of Spontaneity history of Stalking (or at least the last cycle). We might have no way to confirm them, but maybe we can infer something out of them.

Bussing isn't just about voting. If you sell out / cast suspicion on an elim teammate and it causes their death, it counts as bussing. That said, I agree that Devotary is probably not an elim.

12 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So @BrightnessRadiant confirmed elim?

Pretty strong analysis and justification for this, and the conclusion is supported by the analysis of others (like Orlok from C1). BR feels like a good vote right now to try and keep us from butting up against lylo, and removing elim vote manipulation can only help us when it comes to causing deliberate ties. 

[|TJ| he/him]

18 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Pretty strong analysis and justification for this, and the conclusion is supported by the analysis of others (like Orlok from C1). BR feels like a good vote right now to try and keep us from butting up against lylo, and removing elim vote manipulation can only help us when it comes to causing deliberate ties

This was a good analysis but I made it without knowing about Elkanah Smuggling vote off Araris. So basically my final conclusion was wrong. Do read DeTess' response to that. She has made corrections to that which are accurate. 

EDIT : Though I do believe BR is elim. But she's not elim Impersonator

Edited June 5, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Experience he/him]

@A Joe in the Bush, is there an inactivity death? If so, we may not want to waste our time on voting on BR. It might be smart to put a vote on someone whom we believe is an elim, I just don't know if it's worth it. It depends on the answer to the inactivity death.

[Bugsy he/him]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

This was a good analysis but I made it without knowing about Elkanah Smuggling vote off Araris. So basically my final conclusion was wrong. Do read DeTess' response to that. She was made corrections to that which are accurate. 

Ah, whoops. Missed that post somehow.

Still think BR is probably an Elim, but you're right, Experience - probably not worth our lynch this cycle.

Hmm. Shard of Reading, I don't quite understand your vote on Sart now that he's cleared from being Bleeder. I know you say you want to focus on killing elims, but I've yet to see convincing evidence that he is an elim - while I could see him and Kynedath on a team, I don't think it's particularly likely. Care to explain more?

[Guest Coda]

So I've been gone for a bit, sorry about that. I'll reread the thread (it's short this cycle, thankfully), but weren't we trying to lynch xino earlier? What happened to that?

[Experience he/him]

1 minute ago, Coda said:

So I've been gone for a bit, sorry about that. I'll reread the thread (it's short this cycle, thankfully), but weren't we trying to lynch xino earlier? What happened to that?

At least for me, I think that Shard of Reading is more likely an elim than xino. I voted on Reading because they voted on sart which is unusual to me.

[Shard of Reading he/him]

I thought that we still though sart was bleeder.

[DeTess she/her]

1 minute ago, Shard of Reading said:

I thought that we still though sart was bleeder.

You voted after Kynedath confirmed Sart was cleared though...

edit: and your argument for voting on Sart was as part of a hunt for the elims:

On 6/4/2020 at 4:36 PM, Shard of Reading said:

I'm rusting offended! I'm not an elim!

Personally from what I see up here currently the elims are defiantly a bigger danger and we should not focus on bleeder until we actually get a lead. Personaly I think that we should lynch Sart because he seems to be lying low and avoiding talking.

 Your story really isn't holding up here. Shard of reading for now. 

Edited June 5, 2020 by DeTess

[Megasif he/him]

At this point, I am very out od touch with the mechanics side of things. 

I'm also unsure about xino. I'll try this out for a while. Shard of reading.

[Megasif he/him]

On 04/06/2020 at 5:55 PM, TJ Shade said:

C1 and C2 are pretty solid. There's no reason to target Fura is Devotary is elim. It's a waste of an action and I don't think any elim would do that as their very first move. Bussing so early in the game without a lynch makes no sense. 

@DeTess can you confirm C3 action?

@Megasif can you confirm C4 action? Devotary, whom did you actually target in C4? If Devotary flips village, we'll have proof for the existence of elim Extortionist. 

C5 is common knowledge though it's nice to get confirmation.

Nothing worthy of mention just yet.

Edit: quote didn't edit into the above post.

Edited June 5, 2020 by Megasif

[xinoehp512 he/him]

I know it's probably suspcious, but eh. I've had a suspicion on Shard of Reading for some time now. I don't really have time to go back and identify exactly what, unfortunately.

[Jo and the Bush all/any]

1 hour ago, Experience said:

@A Joe in the Bush, is there an inactivity death? If so, we may not want to waste our time on voting on BR. It might be smart to put a vote on someone whom we believe is an elim, I just don't know if it's worth it. It depends on the answer to the inactivity death.

There is not an inactivity filter in place. I'm still looking for pinch hitters.

Edited June 5, 2020 by A Joe in the Bush

[Sart he/him]

To confirm the vote manipulation. I smuggled Rae on Cycle 1 (They were voting on me at the time). That vote manipulation tracks. I didn't smuggle anyone Day 2 or Day 3. I imagine Elkanah Smuggled a vote off of themselves, but that's beside the point. Cycle 4 I targeted Pyro, but was roleblocked. Cycle 5 I targeted Matrim, and finally confirmed my role.

There's now a large bandwagon on Shard of Reading. I feel like this is just new player syndrome. The thread has been tunneling on me for a while, so it's understandable that he could get confused. It also appears that Xino is attempting to use the bandwagon to get out of the lynch train. Based on the vote manipulation in the previous cycle, I don't think they are a Constable, but because they've survived a kill, they are still a likely Bleeder suspect.

 

[Mat he/him]

3 hours ago, Sart said:

To confirm the vote manipulation. I smuggled Rae on Cycle 1 (They were voting on me at the time). That vote manipulation tracks. I didn't smuggle anyone Day 2 or Day 3. I imagine Elkanah Smuggled a vote off of themselves, but that's beside the point. Cycle 4 I targeted Pyro, but was roleblocked. Cycle 5 I targeted Matrim, and finally confirmed my role.

There's now a large bandwagon on Shard of Reading. I feel like this is just new player syndrome. The thread has been tunneling on me for a while, so it's understandable that he could get confused. It also appears that Xino is attempting to use the bandwagon to get out of the lynch train. Based on the vote manipulation in the previous cycle, I don't think they are a Constable, but because they've survived a kill, they are still a likely Bleeder suspect.

 

It's funny. Because C4/5, Sart was my main suspect for basically everything. Now I trust him as village, and agree with this completely.

We basically have it confirmed Reading is elim, so lynching him this cycle wouldn't really give us all that much info, unless he flips village. And we really don't want a mislynch- plus the chance of that is really small. 

Xino hasn't been the most active player the whole time (can someone experienced confirm his normal activity level?) and has basically been silent for 2 cycles once Bleeder suspicions turned on him, posting only to vote on bandwagons like we see now. My vote on Xino stays, as they have survived a kill and have been overly NAI to my eyes in a seemingly attempt to stay in the shadows.

Edited June 6, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[|TJ| he/him]

4 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

We basically have it confirmed Reading is elim, so lynching him this cycle wouldn't really give us all that much info, unless he flips village. And we really don't want a mislynch- plus the chance of that is really small. 

 

Lynching Reading is important because it takes away one of the elims vote manipulation. There are more chances multi-lynches after that. But I agree. If we don't find Bleeder in the next 2 cycles, I think they'll find Winsting. So my vote stays on xino.

Edited June 6, 2020 by TJ Shade

[Mist she/her]

BrightnessRadiant suggested that there would be one more elim than expected. Votes Straw, said last cycle would like to go after Pyro. Orlok thought she could be evil. She defended Pyro for saying he would be less active the first few cycles. Others gave warning and did not receive suspicion. She tried to avoid a tie C1 lynch because the elims could tilt it in their favor. Appears to be having trouble keeping up with high volume of posts. Slightly suspicious. She last visited 17th Shard on Tuesday.

Reading didn’t want to lynch Straw C1. He thought TGK was trying to avoid answering questions. He’s a new player. He is a smuggler. He thinks Xino is an elim. If we keep Pyro, we can’t learn from him. He missed Kynedath’s confirmation of Sart. 

Xino started with rules analysis as usual. He hasn’t posted this cycle. Granted, neither have I. He claimed Gambling Tycoon. He was concerned about the elims and dispersal votes.

Three main suspicions: Xino, BR, Reading.

[|TJ| he/him]

@Mist would you like to cast a vote on one of your suspects this cycle?

Vote Count:

Xino (3) - Matrim, TJ, Sart

Sart(1) - Reading

Reading (5) - Experience, Bugsy, DeTess, Megasif, Xino

[Kynedath]

Seeing as the elims pretty clearly have a smuggler and having scanned them as smuggler myself, I'll vote on Shard of Reading.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

17 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Votes before manip:

Fura (1): Elkanah
Karnage (1): Straw
Orlok (1): Pyro
Pyro (1): Fura
Straw (20): Archivist, Arraenae, Brightness, Bugsy, Devotary, Emi, Experience, God King, Karnage, Kynedath, Matrim, Mist, Orlok, Reading, Sart, Striker, Wilson, Xino, DeTess, Coda

Votes after manip:

Fura (2): DeTess, Elkanah
Karnage (1): Straw
Orlok (1): Pyro
Pyro (1): Coda, Fura
Straw (16): Archivist, Arraenae, Brightness, Bugsy, Devotary, Emi, Experience, God King, Karnage, Kynedath, Matrim, Mist, Orlok, Reading, Sart, Striker, Wilson, Xino

There are two impersonators here, but only three votes removed. Fura isn't an impersonator, but Coda could be. We know Elkanah soothed one of the 18 remaining votes off Straw, and the other removed vote was probably the other impersonator. Either two impersonators/1 smuggler(Elkanah), or two impersonators, one of which didn't vote, and two smugglers, one of which was Elkanah. Then in cycle 5 we go up to three active smugglers. I guess it's plausible that two of those are elims with two votes being removed from Pyro. It's kind of a shame we didn't get any useful information from Shard of Reading, like the results of the scans Pyro claimed would be happening. I did hear that Lord Sil was not the one who attacked DeTess. 

[DeTess she/her]

10 hours ago, Sart said:

There's now a large bandwagon on Shard of Reading. I feel like this is just new player syndrome. The thread has been tunneling on me for a while, so it's understandable that he could get confused.

I'm not so sure. I could see confused!village!reading continuing the push on Sart for being bleeder by missing Kynedath clearing Sart. However, he explicitly said that we should stop focusing on bleeder and start hunting elims before making that vote. But then, when he started taking heat for that vote, he brought up the bleeder argument again as if that was his reason for voting. This suggests to me that his public and private reasons for that vote weren't the same (as otherwise its hard to figure out how he got that wrong there), which is almost always an elim tell.

9 hours ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

We basically have it confirmed Reading is elim, so lynching him this cycle wouldn't really give us all that much info, unless he flips village. And we really don't want a mislynch- plus the chance of that is really small. 

Disagree here. We don't have it confirmed unless he's either outed by an alignment scanner (who ahs been dead for several cycles) or they admit it themselves. Given that I think several other alignments can be revealed based off their flip I really want to see them lynched and confirmed rather than making an assumption.