Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[DeTess]

3 minutes ago, Emi said:

Ok, so I'll do it. Bugsy Megasif

Right, sorry, my bad. To get the same effect, you need to move it to anyone but megasif or bugsy  

[Emi]

3 minutes ago, DeTess said:

Right, sorry, my bad. To get the same effect, you need to move it to anyone but megasif or bugsy  

Ok, so can it be Matrim? Megasif

[A Joe in the Bush]

Bugsy (2): Sart, Matrim
Matrim (1): Emi
Megasif (3): Bugsy, DeTess, Experience

Is this a correct vote count right now?

Edited June 10, 2020 by A Joe in the Bush

[DeTess]

Just now, A Joe in the Bush said:

Bugsy (2): Sart, Matrim
Megasif (4): Bugsy, DeTess, Emi, Experience

Is this a correct vote count right now?

Nope, it's 

Bugsy (2): Sart, Matrim
Megasif (3): Bugsy, DeTess, Experience

matrim(1): emi

[A Joe in the Bush]

Just now, DeTess said:

Nope, it's 

Bugsy (2): Sart, Matrim
Megasif (3): Bugsy, DeTess, Experience

matrim(1): emi

That's what I said. =P

[DeTess]

Just now, A Joe in the Bush said:

That's what I said. =P

sneaky edits are sneaky  

[A Joe in the Bush]

Turn is over, give me 5 minutes to finish up the writeup.

[A Joe in the Bush]

9AM

Bleeder tapped Lord Laborn’s stolen fingers against the lone spike embedded into her spine and hummed as she looked around. Things were getting dicey, and she still hadn’t found Winsting, but the situation was salvageable. Almost the entirety of the party was dead, and that damnable Silberfarben had been tossed out a window, where his soothing could no longer stop her from her slaughters. She just needed to find Winsting now.

“The Immortal is the clear and present threat to all of our safety, but we cannot forget the constables in our midst!” Bleeder glanced over the wounded Lady Telina Maladroi, who was all but leading the criminals in Winsting’s absence. She was a nuisance, but she hadn’t any way of actually harming her. Nor were any of the others who were still awake, which was remarkably few.  Three of the mortals engaged Telina in hushed conversation, and Bleeder turned away to examine Matrim and Hammond.

One of them was Winsting. Both were acting differently than they had at the beginning of the party, as if they were different people. Winsting had disguised himself as one of them, she was certain. Hammond was cavalier about the situation, as if he didn’t feel any threat was present, and Matrim was just doing what ever a strong voice told him to. 

It was Hammond. It had to be. He was ignoring the conversation the rest of them were having, instead sipping his wine and staring out one of the high windows. When she approached, he glanced her way for barely a second.

“Hammond is it?” she asked in the voice of Lord Laborn.

He looked her way again, and this time focused. “Yes? What is it you want?”

“I just wanted to ask your thoughts on the cowardly Lord Winsting. First hiding behind bodyguards, then behind disguises.” She watched his face change from bored to controlled as she spoke. “I’m frankly surprised he hasn’t tried to run already. A coward like him wouldn’t stay here, even knowing that he would be arrested if constables escaped alive. Don’t you agree?”

He raised an eyebrow and glanced around. “I can see how one might come to such a conclusion, but I’m afraid I don’t agree.”

She studied him as he spoke, but there were no slipups. No veiled rage at being insulted. It wasn’t him. He frowned over his shoulder, and Bleeder turned to see who was approaching.

She was stabbed in the back by Lady Telina. She spun, dragging her assailant to the side and stepping away from her. Telina stumbled, but recovered and pulled out a gun. “Rot in hell Immortal.” She fired three times.

Each bullet went through her stolen body and into the window behind it, shattering it. Hammond cried out and fell to the side. Bleeder ignored the 4 wounds and stepped forward, grabbing Telina by the throat. “There is no hell save here Telina.” She dragged the woman to the empty window and lifted her off her feet. “Say hello to Harmony for me.”

I’m often glad that there is no hell.

Bleeder stiffened. “Harmony?”

Hello daughter. Please come back to me.

She could feel him attempting to control her body, and in horror, realized that someone had given Telina a hemalurgic spike. The woman was grinning at her even as she choked.

Please Paalm. I can help you through this.

“No! Stay out of my head!” His grip only tightened on her. She wouldn’t do this. She wouldn’t let him take control! He was too strong, she couldn’t remove one of her spikes, but there were other things she could do. 

She widened the cracks in her spiritweb. She tore them open until the cracks became holes that could not be bridged. 

This is how you choose to die? Truly, I have failed you.

Bleeder stumbled forward as her body lost connection from her mind and soul. Her three aspects split apart, and she fell, still holding Telina, out the open window.

 

Welcome to the 9th hour! This turn will only be 24 hours long, since there are only 6 active players left. As Bleeder has died, Winsting is now safely killable without immediately ending the game. 

 

Megasif was lynched but survived!

Bugsy was lynched. They were the Immortal Bleeder! Also a Gambling Tycoon.

Sart was killed, they were a Criminal Smuggler!

DeTess was killed. They were a Criminal Gambling Tycoon!

 

Awake players: 6 

Votes required to Disperse the Party: 4

 

Vote Count:

Bugsy (2): Sart, Matrim
Matrim (1): Emi
Megasif (2): Bugsy, DeTess, Experience

Dispersal Votes (0/5):

 

Player List:

 

Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 ) 
Shard ( Experience )
Coda ( Coda )
Matrim ( Matrim's_Dice )
Lady Zephyr ( Zillah ) 
Archivald ( The_Archivist ) 
Lady Lumen ( Mist
Emi ( Emi )
TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )
Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King ) 
Hammond ( Megasif )

Lady Telina Maladroi ( DeTess ) Criminal Gambling Tycoon!

Lord Laborn ( Bugsy ) Bleeder Gambling Tycoon

a smart guy ( Sart ) Criminal Smuggler

ThatTinyStrawMan ( Straw ) Renowned Constable

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben ) 5th Octant Escort

To Be Determined ( Elkanah ) Dowser, a Criminal Smuggler

Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading ) Constable Smuggler

Lord Reginald ( Kynedath ) Renowned Criminal

Lord Karn ( Karnage ) Flogs, a Criminal Gambling Tycoon!

Variel ( StrikerEZ ) Bartender/Bodyguard Criminal

LenSaar ( Devotary of Spontaneity ) Criminal Stalker

The Young Pyromancer ( The Young Pyromancer ) Constable Stalker

Locke Tekiel ( Orlok Tsubodai ) Renowned/Gossip Criminal

Lady Arielle ( Arraenae ) Criminal Gossip

Julius ( TJ Shade ) Criminal Gossip

Lord Gavin Verduex ( Hemalurgic Headshot ) Criminal Extortionist

mad watcher ( little wilson ) criminal impersonator/gossip

Muriel Ladrian ( Furamirionind ) Gossip Constable

Lord Hadrian Penrod ( Araris Valerian ) Criminal Gossip

Edited June 10, 2020 by A Joe in the Bush

[Emi]

Ok, so someone knows how many elims are alive?

[Megasif]

I didn't have a chance to come post properly last cycle. At least killing winsting doesnt end gane now. Just a matter of finding the last elims. I was gambling tycoon. Now I can be killed with just one lynch or night action. 

I doubt theere are more than 3, likely 2 left (need to recheck numbers).  I'm probably going to sheep Detess' analysis from previous cycle, excluding the read on me of course. But we'll have to assume worst case scenario, that we can't lynch wrong. It's actually really difficult with non-active players because it basically becomes random.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Megasif

[Mat]

A Storm is coming.

Give me an hour.

 

Edit, after the storm post below: I was feeling dramatic  

Edited June 10, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Experience]

Well, that didn't go very well. I guess we got rid of bleeder though. I have some thoughts, but I'll wait for matrim's storm to post more.

[Mat]

Matrim sat in the corner of the room, hat over his eyes, thinking and drinking. He had studied the last few hours of the night, the ones bleeding into morning, with everything he had. He saw the kills happen, and saw them now again flashing before his eyes. He saw Lord Penrod, an old friend, be slaughtered. He saw Locke Tekiel who had advised him on multiple occasions fall dead before him. And he saw his dear friend, who went under the name of Lord Karn, his faithful bodyguard, be ruthlessly murdered by a crazed assassin that, thankfully, had now been dealt with. It was unfortunate they had turned out to be impersonating Lord Laborn, of all the people Matrim knew that seemed like a personal insult. 

He stood, brushing the dust that had settled off his trousers. No more would he hide his identity. It was time for the party to know. 

Matrim cleared his throat. “Attention.” he said, raising a hand. The group that was more than half the size it was nine hours ago stopped and turned. “I have an announcement to make. We have won a great victory this past hour, dealing with the assassin that threatened me and my brother’s government.” Whispers broke out, as far as any of the other guests knew, Matrim was just another lucky low-class Lord fortunate enough to have received an invitation. 

Matrim smiled, looking out from under the brim of his hat. “I see no reason not to share with all you my secret.” He stood tall, relishing the confused looks on the partygoers faces. “I would like to formally thank you for participating in my auction, though it did perhaps get a bit bloody. Now that the assassin has at last been vanquished, I believe we have some work to do regarding some hidden constables among the crowd. Shall we?” 

---

 

Good Morning everybody! Hour Nine is upon us and the village has – finally- secured this win. I am most certainly glad about this. (Thanks, BTW, to everyone for clearing my suspicions on Sart awhile back [especially Kyne]). Lord Winsting Innate at your service! 

So, Sart said that he thought Winsting was one of the inactives. Go figure. 

You know, when Pyro said in C5 that he has a whole speech planned if he dies, I laughed out loud. This has been written/changed since C4. If there are inaccuracies (hint: there will be inaccuracies) that’s because this speech has existed for 6+ cycles and A LOT has happened in those 12+ days. The tone of this will be off, that’s why. 

I see no reason not to claim, and I hope this isn’t too controversial. It allows me to get general information out to everybody aside from PMing, and since I claimed earlier five cycles ago to Pyro the elims already know who I am. This will only benefit the village. It also will help me not get mislynched, even though really the only person who has been suspicious of me is HH, and he’s long dead. (Though DeTess has recently, a little bit. They died as well. ) 

Now that Bleeder is out of the picture, even though some part of me feels bad for Bugsy, the game is now solely on dispersing the party once the elims are rooted out. Of the 11 remaining people, I think I have a pretty good list compiled made with my own instincts and easter egg slips from Pyro. Thanks, by the way. 

In replying to the claim PM I sent Pyro C4, he said that the elim’s top Bleeder suspects were Sart, TGK, Coda, and HH. As Bugsy turned out to be correct, not even one of those choices, all four must not be elims themselves unless there is some crazy trolling going on. So TGK and Coda are clear with HH and Sart being dead. 

 That only leaves 8 people to be elims, when you exclude me. 

BR is read elim widely around everything. I doubt Megasif is elim, they have been trying really hard to help the village and generally being agreeable, as well as being a Gambling Tycoon. Also, though I don’t really think this matters all that much, the person Mega replaced had 1 post, total. So I doubt they’re an elim. 

Looking at our elim possibilities left, we have Experience, Zillah, Archivist, Mist, Xino and Emi. 

I had it in my head of a Striker/Emi team but Striker was village. Mist has been mostly NAI to me throughout the game so I’ll stick them in the village pile for the sake of numbers and gut reads. Experience and Zillah have been not that active so it is hard to get a read on them. Orlok read Experience as evil and I’ll lean on trusting that, as he was a village scanner in addition to being really really good at this game, also Experience read trust on me for seemingly no reason- maybe they knew my identity from the elim doc. Also worth noting is that they never voted on Bleeder, as the elims liked having Bleeder as a weapon. Archivist I’ve gut-read village, Xino as well, I figured if he wasn’t Bleeder he wasn’t elim. Finally, Zillah has been suspected before. Really I have no other reason. 

My best guess on the complete elim team, in decreasing order of suspicion, is as follows (though you’ve all already seen it (the old version), dang it, I was saving it for this dramatic reveal): 

Straw, Fura, Pyro, Reading, Silber, BR, Experience and Zillah, making a total of 8 elims (5 confirmed and dead) with 3 more to get rid of. If this list is accurate Experience is the only awake elim. Let’s go, guys. 

I hope this shed some light on some things. In the hopefully unoccuring event that someone doubts my claim, I invite the real Winsting to step forward. As I have pointed out there is no reason to hide now. No one? Exactly. It’s me, and believe me no one is as surprised as I am.  

Let’s keep in mind I have access to all the abilities. I was given the impersonator role in my original GM PM and used it only to test the water. C1 I attempted to move Reading’s vote to see if anyone noticed but was blocked by an escort. C2 I moved Coda’s vote from Straw to Pyro again just to see if anyone noticed, and Devotary/wilson/TJ did. C3 I didn’t do anything. C4... well by then I was Winsting. I extortionized Sart and made him Bleeder-kill himself, trusting the hunch. Bus someone escorted me again. Whichever villager this was (it might have been Silber, actually) kinda screwed things up for me, even though Sart is village. C5 I extortionized Sil, directing a kill to Bugsy on request from Devotary but even though that came back in my GM PM as a success it didn’t happen in the writeup. C6 I extortionally self-Bleeder-killed Xino, that had no effect. C7 I exorted Bugsy to Bleeder-kill Devotary (I’ll explain this choice during aftermath) but thankfully was escorted again- but it didn’t matter. C8 I impersonated a vote to get the tie. Any ideas on who I should scan this cycle? PM me! I’ve got ideas but we’ll see. 

I invite any village bodyguards- if there are any left- to protect me. Me having all the abilities along with PM’s from Pyro to search through makes me pretty valuable to the village team. Village bodyguard(s) feel free to PM me and I will PM whoever it to protect me that cycle, or something like that, using only one each. In this way my scanner roles can be preserved as long as possible. 

In the words of the late Pyro, spoken C4, long ago when the game was almost normal, “Let the best faction win.” It’s game on, folks. I think we have a good chance to pull this one off.  

 

-Matrim’s_Dice, Lord Winsting Innate  

 

PS: wilson hereby is gifted my latest masterpiece, the Woman in Ash painting, as compensation for her lost leatherbounds. 

PPS: Experience 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Guest Coda]

I wrote this analysis before Matrim claimed and analysed. If anything is invalidated, ignore it.

Given 7-9 elims at the start, there would be 2-4 elims now. I think we confirmed BR as an elim, so worst-case scenario, 1-3 active elims. Even if all of them are active, the game will not end this cycle. The following analysis is assuming that no current inactives return and that all the unknown elims are active.

Assuming 4 elims now, three of which are active: Currently 3-3. We lynch an elim, they kill an active villager, 2-2. Need 4*3/5 = 2.4 elims to vote disperse. If the GMs round down, we lose. If they round up, we lynch an elim, they kill an active villager, 1-1. Need 2*3/5 = 1.2 elims to vote disperse. If we have vote manipulation, we win. If we don't, everyone dies. End state: Elims win OR LyLo. @A Joe in the Bush are you rounding down for the disperse votes needed?

Assuming 3 elims now, two of which are active: Currently 4-2. We lynch an elim, they kill an active villager, 3-1. Need 4*3/5 = 2.4 elims to vote disperse. We lynch an elim, we win. ALTERNATE TIMELINE: Currently 4-2. We mislynch, they kill an active villager, 2-2. Turns into above state. End state: One mislynch from LyLo

Assuming 2 elims now, one of which is active: Currently 5-1. We lynch an elim, we win. ALTERNATE TIMELINE: We mislynch, they kill an active villager, 3-1. Turns into above state. End state: 2 mislynches from LyLo.

EDIT: Having read Matrim's post, I realize I have neglected to account for the possibility of several inactive elims. Give me a few minutes to analyse that scenario. Also, I agree that Experience is probably our most likely suspect given that Orlok is a brilliant individual who has been right about nearly everything.

EDIT2: Cancel analysis. It just turns into the next scenario down.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Coda
Matrim posted.

[Experience]

Ok, kinda expected winsting to claim, sorta surprised that it was matrim though. I'm not sure why you guys are voting on me? It sounds like both of your reasons are because orlok thought I was an elim, and you don't have any other reasons that I can see other then that. I honestly think that Emi has seemed like the most suspicious to me. Mega had been a little for me, but I'm doubting that an elim would have the gambling tycoon role. But, I guess this is joe's game so I have not idea. Emi has gone all over the place, and then their voting on DeTess just seemed unusual to me. 

[Mat]

Here I am with analysis on Bugsy's theory that the elims have one of each role.

There are 10 roles, and supposedly 8 elims. I'm assuming the elims don't have a bartender or a gambling tycoon. So far, the elim record has been this:

Straw- Renowned

Fura- Gossip

Pyro- Stalker

Reading- Smuggler

Silber- Escort

This means, according to Bugsy, that there is an impersonator, a bodyguard, and an extortionist left.

Impersonator: Zillah. Already suspected.

Bodyguard: Experience. Already confirmed thanks to Kyne, the question lies in the faction

Extortionist: This is where things get tricky. At first it would seem that it can't be BR from inactivity, but with a quick profile check @BrightnessRadiant is proven to not be inactive on the Forums. Last visited: Yesterday at 8:36 AM. So I am proposing that BR has been submitting actions the entire game. This also explains why Joe has said nothing about a pinch-hitter even though he replied fairly quickly about Hammond and Dot. 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Matrim's_Dice

[Experience]

I'm not really sure why you think that I have to be an elim because I'm a bodyguard, though it would work for that theory. If we decide to go with that theory, then I might not be the only option for a bodyguard. There are multiple inactive players that could also be bodyguards, or there could honestly be no bodyguard on the elim team. I still think that emi is likely to be an elim. If everyone is set on killing me, then I suggest going on a tie lynch with emi so that at least one elim can die. Or, if you guys want, we could do zillah or BR as well though they are inactive and I'm not as worried of them as the active players. Just some thoughts. I think i'll go through all of emi's posts right now and see if I still think they are elim after that. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

6 hours ago, Coda said:

@A Joe in the Bush are you rounding down for the disperse votes needed?

Nah, just rounding to the nearest whole number.

[Megasif]

There's just one problem Matrim

I AM THE REAL WINSTING. 

Spoiler

Just kidding . Had my suspicions on you being winsting. I wanted bugsy or whoever else was against winsting to think I was winsting last cycle tbh

I can come out now that I pushed a bit extra for bugsy lynch to fake-cover (somewhat) for winsting and bugsy to push for me rather than the actual winsting.

I haven't done any analysis about the remaining elims to be completely honest. I can sheep on Experience but I may go back if I get a chance just to read some of the posts from the remaining players before I commit to anything

Edited June 10, 2020 by Megasif

[Mist]

Emi moved her vote to allow vote manipulation to maintain the tie. She hasn't offered much explanation for her votes. I'm suspicious of that. She went inactive for a while. 

Experience is a bodyguard, as per Kynedath. We have not found an elim bodyguard yet, so he may be one. Last cycle he was thinking Emi, Mist, or Megasif for a lynch, voting on Megasif. He voted on Shard and Silber.

Because Experience voted on Silber, I'd rather lynch Emi than him, or both at once. 

Emi. It appears as though the elims no longer have vote manipulation, so I'm up for a tie. I'm happy to move it in the next 3 hours while I'm awake, if we don't want to take that risk.

I am open to suggestions. 

Also, please keep in mind: Joe is a troll. Guessing teams based on roles can be helpful to some extent, but it shouldn't be our only source.

[Mat]

Well, the elims would have vote manip via impersonator but if that's Zillah they are inactive right now

As for Joe being troll, I can definitely see that in the whole 'bleeder also a gambling tycoon' thing....

[A Joe in the Bush]

33 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Well, the elims would have vote manip via impersonator but if that's Zillah they are inactive right now

As for Joe being troll, I can definitely see that in the whole 'bleeder also a gambling tycoon' thing....

To be fair, so did Flogs.

[Mat]

Let's all keep in mind this cycle ends in 6 hours instead of 18

[Experience]

10 minutes ago, Matrim's_Dice said:

Let's all keep in mind this cycle ends in 6 hours instead of 18

Oh ya, I forgot about that. @Megasif, are you planning on voting on someone? Actually, if you are planning on voting on me I would rather you didn't vote at all so that emi can go out as well. 

[xinoehp512]

I hope the active players are right. Experience.