Long Game 93: Soon May the Islands Come

[Stick. she/her]

2 hours ago, TheAlpha929 said:

My guess would be not much, lol. Assuming you aren't an elim, which is false

Did you edit in that second sentence?  

[Kasimir he/him]

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Ash was never quite doomed since he was often only 1-2 votes in the lead with lots of trains that could be made. E/E Wiz and Ash doesn't make a lot of sense with the late vote then unvote, but Alpha and Araris are closer to being protective of Ash. Odd that e/e Ash/Araris doesn't lead the latter to voting Sart though since he was village and had more votes than TJ. Maybe if Archer or Stick were on that team but recent elim teas have been okay with stacking votes so I don't put this as strong indication of saving e!Ash. 

Hmm. Do you consider V!Ash the more plausible read of the situation then?

[Stick. she/her]

I would like to bring to attention that one LG were E!me just let myself get exe’d (was it LG89?) because I was so out of it and a large chunk of the elim team was not very active and I had cautioned them against emerging out of inactivity simply to vote in my favour out of the blue. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Hmm. Do you consider V!Ash the more plausible read of the situation then?

Yes.

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

10 hours ago, Archer said:

I checked the rules post but it wasn't clear from that if that was a restriction or not. 

I voted on Stick, Tel, and TKN before I landed on Sart. At that point I hadn't found one which I didn't regret very quickly afterwards, so when Sart made a lengthy post in response to it, I decided to call it a day and commit to that avenue. I don't generally find writing/playstyle analysis very compelling, so I'd avoided those discussions.
The fact that my vote was confirmed wrong looks bad, but I suspect the majority of us were wrong too, so I'd caution about making too much of it.

Why point this out? It just feels odd to do so since we are going to shoot ourselves in the foot every D1 and almost all of us are going to end on a villager. And we won't know until later. It's actions not words that speak powerfully here.

2 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

I would like to bring to attention that one LG were E!me just let myself get exe’d (was it LG89?) because I was so out of it and a large chunk of the elim team was not very active and I had cautioned them against emerging out of inactivity simply to vote in my favour out of the blue. 

No, because you won LG89 by the tie

Why do you bring this up though?

[Stick. she/her]

13 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Why point this out? It just feels odd to do so since we are going to shoot ourselves in the foot every D1 and almost all of us are going to end on a villager. And we won't know until later. It's actions not words that speak powerfully here.

Archer is probably at the top of my suspicions list rn 

13 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

No, because you won LG89 by the tie

Why do you bring this up though?

91 then xD

Because Kas said something about how E!Ash’s hypothetical teammates did not do much to prevent his exe from what we can tell. 

[Mat he/him]

About two hour warning!

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Archer is probably at the top of my suspicions list rn 

91 then xD

Because Kas said something about how E!Ash’s hypothetical teammates did not do much to prevent his exe from what we can tell. 

But no one was really that inactive but Devo and Ash from what I remember.

[Mat he/him]

Time!

[Mat he/him]

LG93: Day Two: According to Plan

No bug was found; Nikli still roamed

It would not let them reach its home

So two vanished into ocean foam

How they died, no one knows.

Archer was killed! He was an Expeditioner!

_Stick_ was killed! She was an Expeditioner!

Day Two has begun! It will end in about 48 hours, on Saturday, April 1st, at 8am PDT.

Take note of the following:

• A reminder that you can call on the services of our IM, @StrikerEZ, for any concerns you may have during the game.
• There will be a majority execution today, with no vote minimum. Tied votes will result in a random player in the tie being removed.
• There is an inactivity filter in play, of two turns. Failure to post for the duration of D2 and N2 will result in removal or replacement. Besides that, @xinoehp512 and @The Known Novel are being warned for inactivity; failure to post D2 will result in removal or replacement.
• The rules doc can be found here.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @The Known Novel - Tekkin
2. Archer - Ene Seattle - Expeditioner
3. _Stick_ - Stick - Expeditioner
4. @TheAlpha929 - Kaust Joshe
5. @Araris Valerian - rather lost
6. @Kasimir - Keshek
7. @Telrao - Mewlnir
8. @Ashbringer - AraRaash
9. @The Wandering Wizard - Raven Beak
10. @xinoehp512
11. @JNV - Jack
12. @Devotary of Spontaneity - Ykld, Rhwm, and Vrodn
13. @|TJ| - Tark
14. Sart - Star Guy - Expeditioner

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by StrikerEZ

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Lovely >>

There goes my PM >>

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

Archer was an Expeditioner???

[The Wandering Wizard he/him]

Yes apparently so now I have to go reread and try to figure out where I went wrong.

I'll prod you Alpha because I still believe you to be likely evil.

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

So, as of now, here’s my read of everyone:

TKN - my guess would be either good or evil.

Araris - rn I’m leaning toward evil, in my gut. 

Kasimir - either he’s elaborately playing us all, or he’s good.

Telrao - I’m not sure… for a while there I thought she was evil, and then I thought she was good, and now I have no idea. 

Ashbringer - I was never really a fan of the train on him, it basically just felt like he hadn’t posted and got pounced upon, somewhat… randomly, in my opinion?

Wiz - I’m leaning towards evil, maybe that’s just cause he’s voting for me and I have a bias, I don’t know.

Xino - leaning a little evil, possibly because of the whole inactivity thing I mentioned about Ash.

JNV - I honestly don’t feel very much either way, maybe a little closer to village? They say they’re busy, but I still feel like they could have voted. I’m not sure if this is really AI to any side.

Devo - Leaning a bit towards evil.

TJ - I’m not sure at all about TJ. Maybe towards evil?

EDIT: Just read through there, and realized that I guessed that pretty much everyone was evil.

Edited March 30, 2023 by TheAlpha929
Fixed some phrasing. I hate editing like 80 times.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So Archer was the Cord kill Stick was the elim kill probably. That's reasonable enough that publicly identifying Cord isn't beneficial.  Wizard claims not-Huio which isn't really relevant. Alpha's e!read on Archer appears to have been way stronger than every other read, which are all ambivalent. 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

As a reminder, please don't edit posts without also specifying what you change! Retroactively changing posts without clarifying the edits is against the rules! I don't think anyone has done this quite yet, but I see a lot of edits and wanted to give a little reminder. Also, please feel free to reach out if you are having trouble with anything, have a conflict with a player, or see a conflict between other players. Also, it's okay if you're proactive about this and it turns out everything's alright. Better safe than sorry!

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

38 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Alpha's e!read on Archer appears to have been way stronger than every other read, which are all ambivalent. 

This is because I was so sure about Archer, but he turned out to be an Expeditioner, so I’m not sure about any of them any more.

32 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

As a reminder, please don't edit posts without also specifying what you change! Retroactively changing posts without clarifying the edits is against the rules! I don't think anyone has done this quite yet, but I see a lot of edits and wanted to give a little reminder. Also, please feel free to reach out if you are having trouble with anything, have a conflict with a player, or see a conflict between other players. Also, it's okay if you're proactive about this and it turns out everything's alright. Better safe than sorry!

Sorry, that’s probably mostly me. I’ll do that in the future.

[Ashbringer he/him]

Well, didn't block anything useful to block so I'll probably keep that target to myself.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Well, now we know that Sart and both of the folks that voted him were village. Ash, Alpha, TJ, (and myself) were the other D1 trains.

Wiz created the tie by moving off of Ash and onto Alpha. Which suggests that if Wiz is elim, Ash is elim. Or maybe TJ if Wiz has a high risk tolerance. We can almost certainly rule out any team that has both Wiz and more than one out of {Ash, Alpha, TJ}, for whatever that's worth. In fact, I'd say regardless of Wiz's alignment, it is unlikely that more than one of {Ash, Alpha, TJ} is elim, or the elims wouldn't have let the tie go through.

1 hour ago, TheAlpha929 said:

So, as of now, here’s my read of everyone:

TKN - my guess would be either good or evil.

Araris - rn I’m leaning toward evil, in my gut. 

Kasimir - either he’s elaborately playing us all, or he’s good.

Telrao - I’m not sure… for a while there I thought she was evil, and then I thought she was good, and now I have no idea. 

Ashbringer - I was never really a fan of the train on him, it basically just felt like he hadn’t posted and got pounced upon, somewhat… randomly, in my opinion?

Wiz - I’m leaning towards evil, maybe that’s just cause he’s voting for me and I have a bias, I don’t know.

Xino - leaning a little evil, possibly because of the whole inactivity thing I mentioned about Ash.

JNV - I honestly don’t feel very much either way, maybe a little closer to village? They say they’re busy, but I still feel like they could have voted. I’m not sure if this is really AI to any side.

Devo - Leaning a bit towards evil.

TJ - I’m not sure at all about TJ. Maybe towards evil?

EDIT: Just read through there, and realized that I guessed that pretty much everyone was evil.

This feels pretty village to me, not going to lie. I appreciate someone that defaults to having a lot of evil reads as opposed to a lot of village reads (even if he's self-aware about it), and I think that's easier to do when you don't know exactly who all is evil already.

So for now my DNE list is: Kas, Wiz, Alpha. Maybe leftover bits of xino

And my Flip Please Flip list is: Ash, TJ

So I'll start off the day with a vote on TJ.

I'm honestly a bit surprised that Ash didn't get killed by either team based on his roleclaim (great NK target if v) and the fact that he survived the day after never having less votes than anyone (great Cord target). 

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

4 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

This feels pretty village to me, not going to lie. I appreciate someone that defaults to having a lot of evil reads as opposed to a lot of village reads (even if he's self-aware about it), and I think that's easier to do when you don't know exactly who all is evil already.

So for now my DNE list is: Kas, Wiz, Alpha. Maybe leftover bits of xino

And my Flip Please Flip list is: Ash, TJ

So I'll start off the day with a vote on TJ.

Self-aware is my middle name! Also Confusion, Embarrassment, and Cringe!

I think TJ is a good choice.

[xinoehp512 he/him]

Alpha (1): Wizard
TJ (2): Araris, Alpha
Wizard (1): Xino

I will vote Wizard: I'm suspicious of his last-minute move from Ash to Alpha, and suspect there might be ulterior motives at play. (i.e. e!Ash). Definitely not opposed to a TJ exe though.

Edit: Alpha's vote for TJ is sheepy, but like I said last cycle, never too early to sheep >:)

 

Edited March 30, 2023 by xinoehp512

[Araris Valerian he/him]

22 minutes ago, xinoehp512 said:

I will vote Wizard: I'm suspicious of his last-minute move from Ash to Alpha, and suspect there might be ulterior motives at play. (i.e. e!Ash). Definitely not opposed to a TJ exe though.

Doesn't it make more sense to exe Ash in this scenario (since e!Ash -> e!Wiz but not the other way around)? And why would e!Wiz not vote on TJ, Sart, or myself rather than Alpha, assuming Ash is elim?

[xinoehp512 he/him]

18 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Doesn't it make more sense to exe Ash in this scenario (since e!Ash -> e!Wiz but not the other way around)? And why would e!Wiz not vote on TJ, Sart, or myself rather than Alpha, assuming Ash is elim?

Why wouldn't e!Wiz imply e!Ash?

Plausible deniablity. Wiz formed the tie in response to Stick's prompt for it.

Edit: Also, to be clear, I'm not opposed to flipping Ash, just think Wiz's actions are more suspicious.

Edited March 30, 2023 by xinoehp512

[|TJ| he/him]

Haven't really read the Night cycle, just glanced through it. For now, 

23 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

So I'll start off the day with a vote on TJ.

I couldn't find any reason why you shifted onto me at the end of last cycle. What was your reasoning to vote for me? V!Araris is usually fine being on side-trains. 

26 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Wiz created the tie by moving off of Ash and onto Alpha. Which suggests that if Wiz is elim, Ash is elim. Or maybe TJ if Wiz has a high risk tolerance. We can almost certainly rule out any team that has both Wiz and more than one out of {Ash, Alpha, TJ}, for whatever that's worth. In fact, I'd say regardless of Wiz's alignment, it is unlikely that more than one of {Ash, Alpha, TJ} is elim, or the elims wouldn't have let the tie go through.

...

So for now my DNE list is: Kas, Wiz, Alpha. Maybe leftover bits of xino

And my Flip Please Flip list is: Ash, TJ

Is there any reason why you're not looking at non-tied players and only focusing on the tied guys? And why is Wiz on your DNE list? I agree that it's unlikely there were 2 elims in a 5 member tie but why did you reach the conclusion that one has to be evil and not looking at non-tied players?

The only time I can recall Araris going for me D1 was in LG67 (hello again!) where he was evil. Posts - 

Quote

I’m going to put my vote on Devotary for now. I agree with Elbereth that Devotary is kind of neutral despite making several posts (and I find staying neutral to be inherently elimy). It’s also possible that if Devotary flips elim, Striker is also an elim (not a super strong connection, but better than nothing. I also realize that there are currently no other votes on Devotary, but there is some time for that to change. If I had to vote on Shade or Gears, I’d probably pick Shade to solidify the vote since I have roughly equal trust/distrust of the two.

Context here is e!Araris was trying to saving teammate!Striker. One big difference is that, in LG67, he switched tunes, village read me and defended me until the rest of the game while his teammate Magestar suspected me, whereas here he's voting on me again. If he was protecting a teammate, it's Ash/Araris team given how he's mentioned Ash alongside me but preferred me over him. @Kasimir, need your opinion on this as you read Araris better and I was paranoiding e!Araris in AG8 endgame >>

And I don't like that Alpha sheep vote either. New elims do tend to sheep votes and get by. 

Currently I think I only village read Kas, Telrao and Xino. 

Ash could be mates with Araris. Ash could be mates with Wiz. I need to re-read once more to get clarity as I wasn't present for EoD, but right now, I feel Ash need to be flipped.

Ash > Alpha > [Araris, Wizard] > [TKN, JNV, Devotary] > Xino > Telrao > Kas

[The Paradoxical Phenomenon he/him]

That sheep vote was because I had multiple candidates, and I wasn't sure which one I should go for. Figured I'd go for the next one that got voted for.