Long Game 92: Process of Elimination

[Orlok Tsubodai]

4 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

@Orlok Tsubodai Who are you and what have you done with the real Brolok?

Very good question, Aman. I woke up this morning to messages of manic cackling from Kas, and notifications for a game I have no recollection of signing up to… 

Making the best of it, however:

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

What we know:

There is a village, there are elims. There is an exe. Elims can win by hammering votes on Kas or Fifth at parity, or otherwise executing a villager and winning by outnumbering. Kas and Fifth are ONLY exeable at parity (this is a question I asked before the game began, don't try to kill for me knowing this ). 

PMs are closed, but Archer is putting on a show of apparently using them.

We don't know when parity is, but it's probably a good idea to not leave the exe unconsolidated. 

Stick, your last statement is interesting.

Why does the absence of knowledge of when parity will occur suggest we should worry about unconsolidated votes? The eliminators can’t successfully vote on Kas or Fifth until parity is achieved, regardless of the village vote being splintered.

I’m pretty clear in my belief that messy, unpredictable votes yield more useable information than bandwagons.

What benefit are you suggesting comes from consolidating votes this early in the game?

[Stick.]

4 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Very good question, Aman. I woke up this morning to messages of manic cackling from Kas, and notifications for a game I have no recollection of signing up to… 

Making the best of it, however:

Stick, your last statement is interesting.

Why does the absence of knowledge of when parity will occur suggest we should worry about unconsolidated votes? The eliminators can’t successfully vote on Kas or Fifth until parity is achieved, regardless of the village vote being splintered.

I’m pretty clear in my belief that messy, unpredictable votes yield more useable information than bandwagons.

What benefit are you suggesting comes from consolidating votes this early in the game?

Blackout = maybe neutrals 

+

Flipless = limited understanding of the game-state

=
Difficulty predicting elim numbers and therefore parity 

My point is that we need to be careful about leaving the exe susceptible to a hammer. Probably not C1,2 I guess but I don’t really want to make assumptions about the elim team size. This doesn’t mean we can’t have multiple wagons, or that we should all just bandwagon on one player with zero discussion, just that I personally would like it consolidated by EoD. 

And without flips, I don’t know how much information we can glean from vote movement anyway. But we do have to start somewhere though so I’m not against it and will probably be analysing that stuff myself because we need to work with what we have. 

[Channelknight Fadran]

Personally I think everyone is on a different team. It's a free-for-all match. Maybe there aren't even any real elims in the first place: we just all have different abilities that affect otehr players, thus sowing distrust among the entire player base until we eventually break out into civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice for Kasimir to finish their nationwide transumatation circle and subsequently create the world's largest philosopher's stone in order to attain God.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Channelknight Fadran

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1 minute ago, _Stick_ said:

Blackout = maybe neutrals 

+

Flipless = limited understanding of the game-state

=
Difficulty predicting elim numbers and therefore parity 

My point is that we need to be careful about leaving the exe susceptible to a hammer. Probably not C1,2 I guess but I don’t really want to make assumptions about the elim team size. This doesn’t mean we can’t have multiple wagons, or that we should all just bandwagon on one player with zero discussion, just that I personally would like it consolidated by EoD. 

And without flips, I don’t know how much information we can glean from vote movement anyway. But we do have to start somewhere though so I’m not against it and will probably be analysing that stuff myself because we need to work with what we have. 

Pretty sure I disagree vehemently on this.

In a blackout game, the informational advantage held by the eliminators is likely much more significant than in a normal game.

I’d bet on the eliminator team being commensurately smaller, although I’d note this is an assumption.

I think a sharper challenge to your point is that the win condition of the eliminators is to outnumber the villagers. If they are at parity, this is just as achievable as a hammer on Kas or Fifth. 

In short, I think the risk of imminent parity is slim, and that the ability to vote on Kas or Fifth at parity is a bad argument for changing village voting behaviour.

[Stick.]

33 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I think a sharper challenge to your point is that the win condition of the eliminators is to outnumber the villagers. If they are at parity, this is just as achievable as a hammer on Kas or Fifth. 

Unless we consolidate on an elim!! 

[Araris Valerian]

@Kasimir, your tally missed my voted on Striker.

I have to agree with Orlok here, it’s a bit absurd to think we are in imminent danger of losing, and it is a bit suspicious for Stick to be trying to motivate us to bandwagon/“consolidate” with that reasoning. Kas wouldn’t set up this beautiful monster of a game and then let it end after a couple of days.

[Stick.]

3 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

This doesn’t mean we can’t have multiple wagons, or that we should all just bandwagon on one player with zero discussion

We’re getting sidetracked!  It was just a comment, I’m not forcing us to consolidate, but I’ll personally be voting in a way that works towards that goal as long as I’m not village reading the player in question. 

@The Known Novel @|TJ| do you really think Fadran is an elim because they just seem like a neutral to me, given their recent posts.  I’m retracting my statement of them seeming village. 

[The Bookwyrm]

Five scudding pages.

This is what I get for going to sleep at a decent time.

So...has anyone figured out what the heck is going on? Who should I poke vote?

[Stick.]

8 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

Five scudding pages.

This is what I get for going to sleep at a decent time.

So...has anyone figured out what the heck is going on? Who should I poke vote?

You can poke vote Tani, if your criteria is non-posters. And this post reads slightly performative. 

[The Bookwyrm]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

You can poke vote Tani, if your criteria is non-posters. And this post reads slightly performative. 

I forgot what performative means.

And I think I'll poke vote the new player.

Last Fae in the Woods

[The Wandering Wizard]

9 hours ago, Archer said:

ok but my initial plan for this game was to pretend to be a Jester role that wanted to die C1 but I couldn't figure out to profit from it. Besides maybe living longer but who wants to do that in a game like this 

What if I told you that I want to die

Quote

That! That is a cursed cat! You win all the points 

Cursed cats are the best

8 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

I got a semi weird claim for you. My role has something to do with the World Cup 

I'd also believe that having seen my twin play QF64 and LG91

6 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

Similarly, a cabbage should be capable of consuming a wolf.

6 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

It's also possible that there aren't any villagers. I imagine that in that case the doc would be too cluttered for anyone to get a grip on anything that's going on and we immediately all become suspicious of each other and incite a civil war, thus providing the necessary blood sacrifice to Kasimir to finish their nationwide transumatation circle and subsequently creating the world's largest philosopher's stone and attaining God.

This seems like the infamous Croc slip of the recent game, and this time we caught it before. It might not be an evil slip, but instead a third party slip. 

It however is day 1 Fadran

ED1T:

Yes I realize that I'm in the lead and I just put Fadran into the tie. But he seems the most suspicious so far to me. 

15 minutes ago, The Bookwyrm said:

I forgot what performative means.

 

It means that you are doing something just to be seen doing it, but you don't really mean it.

Edited January 27, 2023 by The Wandering Wizard

[|TJ|]

hmmmm couple of points. 

after lockys post accusing stick, i scrolled down and expected the defence to be "never said i wanted to consolidate early in the game (bcause stick never said anything about consolidating early in her og post). only when we have an idea slash suspect the gamestate is close to parity we should be wary". the actual reply waaaas longwinded aaand idk not exactly sure what to feel. 

tldr  -
*reads sticks post* hmmm yes we need to be wary of hammers in the endgame
*reads lockys post* agreed but stick never said anything about consolidationings early in the game, surely shell rebut like so
*reads sticks response* huh, what is this defence???.

hehe when the tldr is longer than your og statement :P.

okok watchers watchings point number 2. 

43 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@The Known Novel @|TJ| do you really think Fadran is an elim because they just seem like a neutral to me, given their recent posts.  I’m retracting my statement of them seeming village. 

hmm very important point. neutral does not mean harmless to the village. (as i taught yall in mr56 muahahahaha :P). could be baddie neutral. could be wincon to kill x goodies. could be anything. call us pirates because we're partially blindfolded :P. anyway, yes neutral != nice goodie adjacent lad. we need to be aware their motivations too. as such, quite happy with my vote. [edit: the second post from fadran doubling down could be a show as well to fake neutral after og slip]

point tres. i was just re-reading the thread and felt ash and aman (oooooh merge them and you get asha'man) are not both baddies on gut. bcause ash be speculating keeper or striker. but then i realised. bros. we dont know if baddies are informed or uninformed. one of the best ways to balance unflippiness is to isolate the baddies (or some sort of uninformed mechanism) [the other way is to make baddies numbers v smol like locky said]. if so, my entire associationings are useless smh. @Kasimir, do we get to know if baddies are informed or not? 

Edited January 27, 2023 by |TJ|

[Stick.]

2 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

hmmmm couple of points. 

after lockys post accusing stick, i scrolled down and expected the defence to be "never said i wanted to consolidate early in the game (bcause stick never said anything about consolidating early in her og post). only when we have an idea slash suspect the gamestate is close to parity we should be wary". the actual reply waaaas longwinded aaand idk not exactly sure what to feel. 

tldr  -
*reads sticks post* hmmm yes we need to be wary of hammers in the endgame
*reads lockys post* agreed but stick never said anything about consolidationings early in the game, surely shell rebut like so
*reads sticks response* huh, what is this defence???.

hehe when the tldr is longer than your og statement :P.

okok watchers watchings point number 2. 

hmm very important point. neutral does not mean harmless to the village. (as i taught yall in mr56 muahahahaha :P). could be baddie neutral. could be wincon to kill x goodies. could be anything. call us pirates because we're partially blindfolded :P. anyway, yes neutral != nice goodie adjacent lad. we need to be aware their motivations too. as such, quite happy with my vote. [edit: the second post from fadran doubling down could be a show as well to fake neutral after og slip]

point tres. i was just re-reading the thread and felt ash and aman (oooooh merge them and you get asha'man) are not both baddies on gut. bcause ash be speculating keeper or striker. but then i realised. bros. we dont know if baddies are informed or uninformed. one of the best ways to balance unflippiness is to isolate the baddies (or some sort of uninformed mechanism) [the other way is to make baddies numbers v smol like locky said]. if so, my entire associationings are useless smh. @Kasimir, do we get to know if baddies are informed or not? 

The elims know who their teammates are, and they have a doc. Kas is going to tell you to read the syllabus 

[StrikerEZ]

@Kasimir Kjell is requesting a VC so he can frantically make premature vote analysis. 

[|TJ|]

>>

whats the common thing between terms and conditions agreement and general rules? i ignore both of them and move on to the next bit :P. 

okiedokes, associationings still relevant yay.

[Stick.]

@|TJ| you didn’t actually answer my question about whether you actually think Fadran is an elim  Valid point about neutrals being sometimes anti-village, so while it’s good to stay wary I don’t really want to antagonise neutrals right out of the gate, plus our wincon is to hunt elims.

Edit:

I forgot to mention this earlier and I promise I’ll shut up about this particular mechanic after this but another incentive for the elims to exe a GM instead of a player at parity is that I presume the GMs do not have extra lives and will immediately die, whereas a villager may survive due to their role. I also presume the elims do not know who exactly all the neutrals are/whether they exist, so if they unintentionally hammer on a neutral at parity they don’t win. This also leads to me question whether the elims can accurately predict parity, since they probably don’t know how many neutrals we’ve got here. ._. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by _Stick_

[The Wandering Wizard]

41 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I forgot to mention this earlier and I promise I’ll shut up about this particular mechanic after this but another incentive for the elims to exe a GM instead of a player at parity is that I presume the GMs do not have extra lives and will immediately die, whereas a villager may survive due to their role. I also presume the elims do not know who exactly all the neutrals are/whether they exist, so if they unintentionally hammer on a neutral at parity they don’t win. This also leads to me question whether the elims can accurately predict parity, since they probably don’t know how many neutrals we’ve got here. ._. 

But wouldn't they know from the player list? Because all they have to do is have more people than everyone else and thus parity right?

I see a Plum Rhino viewing, return of the Boxer role from LG53?

ED1T:

9 hours ago, |TJ| said:

smh i promise that looks better in sheets.

Mine also looks better in sheets

ED2T: My vote actually put Fadran to the front o.O, didn't realize that. It can stay for now.

Also the GM Kasimir has more posts than half the player list

Edited January 27, 2023 by The Wandering Wizard

[Shining Silhouette]

I love faction conversion games

[|TJ|]

50 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

@|TJ| you didn’t actually answer my question about whether you actually think Fadran is an elim

duhh im reading the second post doubling down on the first post as a cover to a slip (bcause second post essential says the same thing, almost repeat), so yes leaning more towards baddie than neutral. 

edit - 

4 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I love faction conversion games

now what possessed you to post this totally unprovoked -.-

Edited January 27, 2023 by |TJ|

[The Wandering Wizard]

2 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

I love faction conversion games

o.o

 

Complementary VC

Mat (1): Fadran

Xino (1): Archer

Wizard (2): Mat, Xino

Archer (2): Devo, Wallin

Wallin (1): Fadran

Dannex (2): Ash, Stick

Stick (1): Orlok

Striker (2): Steel, Araris

Fae (1): Wyrm

[Stick.]

25 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

But wouldn't they know from the player list? Because all they have to do is have more people than everyone else and thus parity right?

They have to outnumber the village in particular

Edit:

2 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

o.o

 

Complementary VC

Mat (1): Fadran

Xino (1): Archer

Wizard (2): Mat, Xino

Archer (2): Devo, Wallin

Wallin (1): Fadran

Dannex (2): Ash, Stick

Stick (1): Orlok

Striker (2): Steel, Araris

Fae (1): Wyrm

You’re missing like all the Fadran votes  Interesting because you explicitly commented on how they are the leading train right now. Not to mention you’re voting them too :P. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by _Stick_

[Shining Silhouette]

5 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

now what possessed you to post this totally unprovoked -.-

What faction are you?

[The Wandering Wizard]

3 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

They have to outnumber the village in particular

And where does it say that in the rules? All I'm getting out of it is that they have to reach parity. How do you know so much?

[Stick.]

Just now, The Wandering Wizard said:

And where does it say that in the rules? All I'm getting out of it is that they have to reach parity. How do you know so much?

Idk I must be evil or something 

Spoiler

Are we reading the same rules xD It says they have to outnumber the SE Players, which is the village faction. 

Wizard

[Archer]

8 hours ago, Biplet said:

I'm biplet? Yes!

pokemons in battle be like ^

8 hours ago, Walin said:

Anyway, duly noted and I will not make conditional orders. To the GM's, that is.

See I thought this was a joke, but if it wasn't a joke, why even bother with the vote if you've publicly said you'll automatically retract it? 

7 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Extremely tempted to vote you for this tbh

Why not do it?

6 hours ago, Channelknight Fadran said:

What doc?

Budget Bugs Bunny be like ^

5 hours ago, _Stick_ said:

Unless we consolidate on an elim!! 

That would require knowing we're at parity, which assumes we've failed to hit any elims by the final round. 

1 hour ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

This seems like the infamous Croc slip of the recent game, and this time we caught it before. It might not be an evil slip, but instead a third party slip. 

Seems like the best path to victory is to hope that either Archer or Croc are elims and wait for them to dun goof. 

22 minutes ago, The Wandering Wizard said:

Mine also looks better in sheets

Get a room, you two. Or actually, I'll make one for us once I get around to doing the PMs. And TJ Shade Xino why'd you drop the teamed/not-teamed chart now? If people know you're making it based on early game events, they'll start intentionally trying to confuse your data. That's the kind of chart you should have constructed over a week or so, then revealed. 

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

What faction are you?

and now this is a faction conversation game