Long Game 83: The Survivor

[StrikerEZ]

In case anyone needed one, here's a VC:

Archer (10): Biplet, Araris Valerian, JNV, Archer, Kasimir, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Karnatheon, Sequence, Tani
Karnatheon (1): Matrim's Dice

There's just under an hour left before the turn ends. Also, just so everyone knows, N4 will be a normal turn length. It was originally planned to be longer, but the recent snow day shifted things around in my schedule (plus I forgot I have a concert to play in Tuesday night), so N4 will be 24 hours.

EDIT: Definitely missed Archer's vote on himself. That's been fixed.

Edited February 28, 2022 by StrikerEZ

[StrikerEZ]

And that's the turn! No more posting, PMing, or submitting actions/item requests!

[StrikerEZ]

Night Four

Archer's given me some RP for this, just gotta go over it later and make sure it matches the overall story I'm gonna tell when I go back through and fix the writeups. Archer would like you all to know that he played his uno reverse card.

---

Archer has been Interrogated! They were a Traitor!
Matrim's Dice has died! They were a Confederation Loyalist Hazekiller!
JNV has died! They were a Confederation Loyalist Investigator!

Archer (10): Biplet, Araris Valerian, JNV, Archer, Kasimir, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Karnatheon, Sequence, Tani
Karnatheon (1): Matrim's Dice

PMs are still open. This is a reminder that you must include myself, Experience, and Devotary in any PMs you make. And they can only be one-on-one. You can still grab an item from the Stockpile during this Night turn. However, it will not be announced who grabbed what in the next Day turn.

Also, please welcome @Sart to the game! He is taking over for @Szeth_Pancakes.

@Fifth Scholar If you do not post this turn, you will either be replaced by a pinch hitter or removed from the game. 

PMs will come out as soon as possible!

Items Grabbed

Spoiler

• Biplet grabbed an Iron Vial!
• Araris Valerian grabbed a Bendalloy Vial!
• Kasimir grabbed a Shade Gun!
• Drake Marshall grabbed a Bendalloy Vial!
• Karnatheon grabbed an Iron Vial!
• Tani grabbed an Attractor Fabrial!

Stockpile

Spoiler

• 2 Tin Vials
• 2 Zinc Vials
• 3 Brass Vials
• 1 Copper Vial
• 2 Bronze Vials
• 1 Gold Vial
• 1 Electrum Vial
• 2 Cadmium Vials
• 1 Aluminum Vial
• 2 Chromium Vials
• 1 Hrovell Potion
• 1 Painrial

Player List

Spoiler

1. @Biplet - Edeis, a totally not immortal gossip
2. Ashbringer - Faleast, just a normal dude and definitely not a shapeshifter Confederation Loyalist
3. @Sart
4. Matrim's Dice - Dooku, a man whose name is unrelated to anything Confederation Loyalist Hazekiller
5. @Araris Valerian - Arval, no the other one
6. Steeldancer - Leets, totally not the Flash Confederation Loyalist
7. Amanuensis - Genis, a little kid who’s too smart for his own good and his AI friend, G.E.N.I.U.S. Confederation Loyalist
8. JNV - Kali, another kid who managed to sneak on board the ship Confederation Loyalist Investigator
9. Archer - Ivory Tarvis, Head Carpenter of The Survivor Traitor
10. @Kasimir - Kavar Aral, a seasoned operative who really should have retired ages ago
11. The Unknown Aon - ExMach Inadeus, an extraordinarily lucky guy Confederation Loyalist
12. @|TJ| - Kranvar, a wanted criminal who snuck on board somehow
13. @DrakeMarshall - The meme guy
14. @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel, a seasoned veteran
15. Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Levin Venture, totally not a Ghostblood Confederation Loyalist Hazekiller
16. @Illwei - Kraval Aralis, who’s way too excited about potions 
17. @Karnatheon
18. Haelbarde - Haen Plaid, he’s still here, I suppose Confederation Loyalist
19. _Stick_ - The Stick figure Confederation Loyalist
20. @Sequence - Sfirm Kryt, they’re totally in the mission
21. Bort Traitor
22. @STINK
23. @Tani 
24. @Fifth Scholar - Christel Groenloben, a surprisingly cheerful old skaa lady who doesn't act like it

This turn will end at 8 pm CST, on Monday, February 28th. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[---]

Why do we get role flips sometimes but not always

Or did I just miss the flip for the first claimed hazekiller or?

[Kasimir]

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Why do we get role flips sometimes but not always

Those are roleless.

Guessing he started with a Hrovell then.

Edited to add: Current thoughts - Gold scan? Or potentially if they worked out Mat was Hal, then I'd assume that Mat refusing to countenance JNV was sus might have done it.

Edited to add 2: Here are Mat's actions - RBed Bort N1, RBed Fifth D2, RBed Karn N2 and Tin scanned Araris N2 (Araris did not use a metal), RBed Fifth D3, and RBed Araris [Edited to add 3: This should read Archer] N3. He's also - AFAIK - set to RB Bip D4. V!Invest scanned Mat N1, Bort N2, and Stick N3. Was set to scan Araris until the last minute but TBF, that would not have ended well.

Edited February 28, 2022 by Kasimir

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Reminder that you can PM me or ping me about any concerns or problems.

Spoiler

Day 4 Report:

The Captain has not considered mission cancellation, despite rising death tolls.. Ranking officers hide on bridge behind aluminum-lined walls of steel. Crew tears itself apart, our collaborators almost as vicious as Captain. Confederation military will send more ships, more medallions if we win, cares nothing for loss of life.

And what a lot of loss there has been. Five people have died since we last wrote, with another out of commission and a seventh managing to survive an attack. Only one of ours died, but we can’t afford any losses. Haen somehow managed to get an exterior window open without depressurizing the ship, or someone else did it for him. We don’t know how that happened, but we can confirm that his body was jettisoned into space and the window he exited from is sealed down tighter than ever. Stick got caught in a localized gravitational anomaly and was compressed into a two dimensional being. I’d love to know what caused that to make sure it never gets used on any of us. Leets survived unfortunately but he won’t be waking up anytime soon, and we can confront him if he ever does come back to consciousness. His report of bugs has yet to be thoroughly investigated.

Second straight day of loss. Head Carpenter Ivory struck two final blows on Roshar’s behalf. Killed Hazekiller Dooku, Investigator Kali. Dooku was fantastically wealthy titled aristocrat, used resources to fund Hazekiller training. Kali small enough to fit in vents, spy on people and records. Their deaths help keep our allies safe. Not what Ivory anticipated in their plan to make the Cosmere simpler, less technologically advanced, but appreciated. Their memory will outlast the stars.

Rhythm of Mourning

-Larkin -Lanceryn

Roshar Report #4

The situation on Roshar has become a double siege. Confederation agents have penned in our trainees, but our operatives have surrounded the facilities and prevented anyone from escaping. It should block Confederation reinforcements, but Phem worries that some of our newly arrived personnel are sympathizers. They’re probably right. I’m working double shifts getting our starfighters back in the air to help out.

Ivory’s sacrifice will not be forgotten. They risked a comfortable position for us and died for us, and we’ll make sure their work is fulfilled.

I’m concerned that no more of the crew has reconsidered working for us even as their leadership forces them into a massacre. Are they just refusing to listen to any of your pitches? Has their desire for blood outstripped their common sense? Are they too desperate to believe that their situation can improve? Deaths among the crew keep our allies and more importantly you safe in the short term, but the Confederation cares nothing for loss of life, not when medallions can turn anyone into a professional killer. We need to convince anyone willing to listen to end their violence against Roshar. If Head Carpenter is the highest rank open to our cause, we’ll need a lot more support if it comes to open war.

Rhythm of Mourning

-Dawnshard

 

 

[Kasimir]

Delta immediately looks to me like our rogue Metallurgist did a pull yet again. It's interesting and I'd argue that our rogue Metallurgist is almost certainly Evil, contra Drake, because it feels like the timing of their last two pulls has been to obscure Elim drops - Bort and now Archer.

Mat and JNV both had empty inventories, so that doesn't matter. Main question is what Archer had on him.

D4:

Spoiler

• 2 Iron Vials
• 2 Tin Vials
• 1 Brass Vial
• 2 Bronze Vials
• 1 Gold Vial
• 2 Cadmium Vials
• 2 Bendalloy Vials
• 1 Aluminum Vial
• 1 Chromium Vial
• 1 Shade Gun
• 1 Attractor Fabrial

N4:

Spoiler

• 2 Tin Vials
• 2 Zinc Vials
• 3 Brass Vials
• 1 Copper Vial
• 2 Bronze Vials
• 1 Gold Vial
• 1 Electrum Vial
• 2 Cadmium Vials
• 1 Aluminum Vial
• 2 Chromium Vials
• 1 Hrovell Potion
• 1 Painrial

Delta:

Spoiler

-2 Iron (Bip, Karn)
+2 Zinc
+2 Brass
+1 Copper
+1 Electrum
-2 Bendalloy (Araris, Drake)
+1 Chromium
-1 Shade Gun
-1 Attractor Fabrial
+1 Hrovell
+1 Painrial

That's a delta of +9, so I think it's clear something (at least one thing) dropped from Archer and it has to be a vial. Off the top of my head, unclear which candidates are possible. Have to go back and look.

Seems to me that since Archer had to send in the Hrovell order at the same time as the kills were sent in, this was a decapitation strike - everyone who died last Night had pushed Archer and would have been soft-cleared by his flip. Mat was consensus Village and JNV would have looked pretty good after Bort as well, which means that the set of people meant to die were all light to strong V <Steel (early Archer push on D2), Stick, Drake, Mat, JNV> and more active than the alternatives.

Someone started with a Hrovell, that's the only explanation, as we saw one Hrovell drop, unless a Hrovell cycle corresponded with a pull, so it hid the delta from us. I did a quick check and that is impossible by OoA so someone did indeed start with a Hrovell. Wondering if there's a slightly smaller Elim team because letting them start with a Hrovell is otherwise an interesting GMing decision (see: LG12 E!Pirate.)

It's interesting that TJ wasn't considered a candidate since TJ went for Archer over Bort.

My current Village reads set include <Drake, Bip>, tentative on TJ but still yes, everything else needs rethinking for when I have the time.

[Sart]

Alright, just joining in. Time for me to see what vote analysis gives me as a baseline. I'm not analyzing any posts right now, I'm just doing a shallow dive to see if anything sticks out.

Day 1:
The Unknown Aon (4): TJ, Thaidakar, Stick, Fifth Scholar
_Stick_ (2): Szeth_Pancakes/Sart, TUA
Biplet (1): Archer
Tani (1): Biplet
JNV (1): Araris Valerian
Matrim's Dice (1): Steeldancer
Steeldancer (1): Drake Marshall
Dannnex/Illwei (1): Karnatheon

Other than a good lean on Biplet, there's not much to go off of Day 1. Slight negative on Araris for voting on JNV, but that's minor.

Day 2:
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (6): Biplet, Archer, Drake Marshall, _Stick_, Araris Valerian, Kasimir
Steeldancer (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Archer (2): Steeldancer, |TJ|
Biplet (2): Matrim's Dice, Fifth Scholar

Well, with a vote on Archer Day 2, that makes TJ look a lot more trustworthy. Big Negative on Ffith though. If we assume there's one Elim on the TUA train, TJ seems unlikely, so blame falls to Fifth. In addition, they joined a counter train on Day 2, possibly to prevent a V/E scenario between Archer and Thaidakar.

Day 3:
Bort (15): Biplet, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Steeldancer, JNV, Archer, Kasimir, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Orlok Tsubodai, Karnatheon, Haelbarde, _Stick_, Bort, Tani
Archer (1): Illwei

Runaway train alert. I'm presuming there was some sort of scan that happened.

Day 4:
Archer (10): Biplet, Araris Valerian, JNV, Archer, Kasimir, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Karnatheon, Sequence, Tani
Karnatheon (1): Matrim's Dice

Yet another runaway train. Not sure how to get more info from this.

Well, the dive did promote a suspect in the form of Fifth. I'll have to read through the thread to get a better picture, but I'd keep a close eye on them.

[Kasimir]

5 minutes ago, Sart said:

Well, the dive did promote a suspect in the form of Fifth. I'll have to read through the thread to get a better picture, but I'd keep a close eye on them.

FYI if there's no pinch-hitter, Fifth dies tonight, so maybe hold back on that until we know for sure.

[|TJ|]

Assuming Archer started with a Hrovell, then the 2nd Hrovell is from Mat, which was claimed to be stolen from him by Bort. Now, either Bort was lying about having Hrovell, and it was Archer who actually stole the Hrovell from Mat OR Bort was telling the truth and Archer got insanely lucky and won the 1/15 chance of obtaining Hrovell via Bort elimination. 

Former requires - 
N1 - Hrovell Mat/JNV
N2 - Painrial Mat
N3 - Hrovell Mat/JNV

But there's a discrepancy, as Archer claims to have used a Fabrial on N2. We've seen 3 Day drops so far - D1, D3 and D4, likely elim motivated. So it's possible that the N2 Fabrial claim was covered by e!Metallurgist and D3 refill was instead provided by Archer's Fabrial. Pre-reveal D3 needs to be checked because this means elims had vested interest in keeping Archer alive at least till he could Hrovell N3.  [Edit: Uh, I didn't realize he claimed to have used an AF on N1 too, so this doesn't quite hold up]

Also, explaining this now - 

Quote

We can verify if it was Nicrosil or Bendalloy post-this cycle. I have talked with Kas on how we can verify this, but revealing the 'how' right now may alter elim behavior/actions to muddy up the verification process, so it's prudent to reveal after this cycle. Kas can confirm, and might agree. 

The logic was - if someone had Bendalloy redirected Hael, then the Knife wouldn't hit Archer and he would still have his allomantic powers, meaning he would burn any vials he had in a similar fashion to what Bort did. 

If the Knife had hit Archer, and he survived the 50% coinflip, then it would mean he had lost his allomantic powers, meaning he wouldn't be able to burn vials even if he wanted to. 

Conclusion being - 

If we see zero items dropped -> all vials were burned -> Archer still had allomantic powers -> Knife was redirected by a Bendalloy Bubble -> Extra kill by Knife

If we see evidence of items dropped from Archer -> Archer could not burn his vials -> Archer lost his allomantic powers -> Knife hit Archer -> Extra kill by Nicro/Dura

And because we see +9 Delta today AND maximum addition by any means is +8 AND Kas confirms that JNV and Mat did not have any items AND all vials added today are the ones that are pre-elimination in OoA and could have been burned by Archer but weren't -> Archer dropped at least one item -> Archer was hit by the Knife. 

Meaning the extra kills can be attributed to Nicrosil/Duralumin.

Edited February 28, 2022 by |TJ|

[Kasimir]

11 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

meaning he would burn any vials he had in a similar fashion to what Bort did. 

Question is, would he? Or would he drop the items to confuse us? Because I could see him deciding that there are too many vials such that the Elim team has a decent chance of recovery. It's not clear to me Bort burned everything. He may very well have dropped a vial.

12 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

[Edit: Uh, I didn't realize he claimed to have used an AF on N1 too, so this doesn't quite hold up]

The fact that Archer claimed AFs D1 and D2 from the Stockpile and claimed to have used them N1, N2 pretty much puts a pin in this. He also actively claimed a delta for both Nights (so the D2 delta and D3 deltas respectively) - it's possible he could be lying but from the numbers, but given there was an actual delta, and Aman died with no inventory, it'd pretty much have to be another AF teammate or a Metallurgist teammate.

To be clear:

Quote

Day One - Archer claims AF #1. This is verified by the public Stockpile declaration.
Night One - Someone restocks the Stockpile. This is verified by the fact we have a +3 visible delta the next day and zero kills; Archer claims a +6 delta.
Day Two - Archer claims AF #2. This is verified by the public Stockpile declaration.
Night Two - Someone restocks the Stockpile. This is verified by the fact we have a +9 visible delta the next day; Aman known to have an empty inventory. Archer claims a +8 delta.
Day Three - Tani goes after the AF instead. Archer claims to want to get vials. This is verified by the public Stockpile declaration.
Night Three - Someone restocks the Stockpile. This is verified by the fact we have a +11 visible delta the next day, with Tani claiming a +7 delta. 

Let's look at the situation again.

• Hrovells are Night only. In addition, players have a limit of one non-vial item action per Turn. Two deaths also means two Hrovells. This means Archer needed to burn two Night actions. We have in theory one Night on which Archer clearly used the Hrovell (N3), but we also have two Nights which Archer claimed with prima facie credibility to have used the AF and the Stockpile was clearly restocked.
   
• If anyone got an AF off the Archer lynch, they should claim it. It's very important in figuring out what happened here.
   
• The obvious inference from the two Hrovell deaths is that Archer did not actually restock the Stockpile on at least one Night. The implication is that he should have dropped at least one AF. But that's not what we see - we see a +9 delta indicating that Archer did in fact drop a vial, but no AF. So what gives?
   
• I do think that the D3 pull was due to Archer - Archer burning the AF in the Day to free up the Night action for the Hrovell, should he get it. (I think this weakly indicates he actually isn't  teamed with the/a Metallurgist - taking the AF and then getting the Metallurgist to pull to hide the AF could have caused more confusion. But I'm not terribly sold on this point.) 
   
• If Archer had used the N2 painrial, then Archer should have dropped two AFs, unless we think he burned one D3. There's no other point (apart from the D1 pull but that categorically cannot be Archer) at which he could have burned it during the Day. This is why it's important to know if an AF dropped but I actually don't place high credence on this possibility.
   
• The fact that Archer confidently told us the N2 delta/items added indicates to me some likelihood an Elim started with an AF or is a Metallurgist. I no longer think there is much of an incentive for Archer to lie because we wouldn't know Ash's inventory size or Aman's inventory size anyway, and neither would the Elims.
   
• How many Stockpile pulls do we have in total? <D1, N1, N2, D3, N3, D4> Of these pulls, I think N3 is clearly down to Tani (there are exotic possibilities, but let's leave them aside first.) Let's look at the pulls after ruling out those Archer could categorically not have done: <N1, N2, D3, N3> - I think it's clear he explicitly wanted to be freed up N3 to burn Bort's Hrovell, therefore <N1, N2> is the window we're looking at. Let's just stipulate for the moment that Archer was responsible for the <N2, D3> pulls. (A bit odd for the Metallurgist to do back to back pulls but not impossible. D1 pull could be someone with a starter item wanting to burn it ASAP. Nothing much hinges on the N1 pull postulation instead of N2.) What is the result? <D1, N1, N2, D3, N3, D4> Three unexplained pulls - we can credit it either to an Elim who began with an AF and a V!Metallurgist, or, IMO, an E!Metallurgist. It's clear we have too many pulls to postulate convenient starter AFs for.

[STINK]

Big delta fan

[DrakeMarshall]

17 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Archer has been Interrogated! They were a Traitor!
Matrim's Dice has died! They were a Confederation Loyalist Hazekiller!
JNV has died! They were a Confederation Loyalist Investigator!

Spoiler

 

[StrikerEZ]

@Biplet @Sart @Araris Valerian @Kasimir @|TJ| @DrakeMarshall @Orlok Tsubodai @Illwei @Karnatheon @Sequence @STINK @Tani @Fifth Scholar There's about 4 hours left in the turn. Make sure to get any actions or item requests in before it’s over!

Edited March 1, 2022 by StrikerEZ

[StrikerEZ]

And that's the turn! No more posting, PMing, or submitting actions/item requests until the next one is up!

[StrikerEZ]

Day Five

*insert writeup here*

---

No one was attacked!

There will be an Interrogation during this Day turn. There is no vote minimum (though no one is removed if no one votes), and tied votes result in a random tied player getting Interrogated.

As a reminder, you can grab one item from the Stockpile during the Day. Though this will be announced in the writeup for the next Night.

PMs are coming as soon as we can get them out to y'all. 

Everyone, please welcome @Walin to the game! He's replacing @Fifth Scholar!

Also, @Orlok Tsubodai if you do not post this turn, you will either be replaced by a pinch hitter or removed from the game by the inactivity filter.

Stockpile

Spoiler

• 1 Steel Vial
• 1 Tin Vial
• 1 Pewter Vial
• 3 Copper Vials
• 2 Bronze Vials
• 1 Electrum Vial
• 2 Cadmium Vials
• 1 Aluminum Vial
• 2 Chromium Vials

Player List

Spoiler

1. @Biplet - Edeis, a totally not immortal gossip
2. Ashbringer - Faleast, just a normal dude and definitely not a shapeshifter Confederation Loyalist
3. @Sart
4. Matrim's Dice - Dooku, a man whose name is unrelated to anything Confederation Loyalist Hazekiller
5. @Araris Valerian - Arval, no the other one
6. Steeldancer - Leets, totally not the Flash Confederation Loyalist
7. Amanuensis - Genis, a little kid who’s too smart for his own good and his AI friend, G.E.N.I.U.S. Confederation Loyalist
8. JNV - Kali, another kid who managed to sneak on board the ship Confederation Loyalist Investigator
9. Archer - Ivory Tarvis, Head Carpenter of The Survivor Traitor
10. @Kasimir - Kavar Aral, a seasoned operative who really should have retired ages ago
11. The Unknown Aon - ExMach Inadeus, an extraordinarily lucky guy Confederation Loyalist
12. @|TJ| - Kranvar, a wanted criminal who snuck on board somehow
13. @DrakeMarshall - The meme guy 
14. @Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel, a seasoned veteran
15. Thaidakar the Ghostblood - Levin Venture, totally not a Ghostblood Confederation Loyalist Hazekiller
16. @Illwei - Kraval Aralis, who’s way too excited about potions 
17. @Karnatheon
18. Haelbarde - Haen Plaid, he’s still here, I suppose Confederation Loyalist
19. _Stick_ - The Stick figure Confederation Loyalist
20. @Sequence - Sfirm Kryt, they’re totally in the mission
21. Bort Traitor
22. @STINK
23. @Tani 
24. @Walin

This turn will end at 8 pm CST on Wednesday, March 2nd. Also, unless things drastically change with my schedule again, I don't think there are any more Night turns that need to be 48 hours long. Unless we start getting to like N10 and stuff.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Devotary of Spontaneity

[Quivil]

AF gave 5 things to stockpile

[DrakeMarshall]

4 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Stockpile

  Hide contents

• 1 Steel Vial

 

[Araris Valerian]

Somebody roleblocked me .

[Sequence]

Yay, I'm not dead. That's always fun... right...?

[---]

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Somebody roleblocked me .

Nice claim when there's no kill

[Quivil]

Araris

Edited March 1, 2022 by Tani
formatting

[|TJ|]

Uhhh, okay what are the possibilities of a third village Hazekiller? Or someone burned Electrum. Or there's an e!Hazekiller who blocked Araris and didn't submit a kill for easy ML.

22 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Somebody roleblocked me .

What was your action?

[Araris Valerian]

28 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Uhhh, okay what are the possibilities of a third village Hazekiller? Or someone burned Electrum. Or there's an e!Hazekiller who blocked Araris and didn't submit a kill for easy ML.

What was your action?

I was using my Bendalloy on Sequence, since I figured a decent chance of one of us getting attacked, and Drake had some of his own. The only thing that could block that is a Hazekiller.

I brought this up with Kas in our PM, but there are decent odds that this is an effective LyLo. Assuming the elims will go into N5 with 2 Steel vials, a misexe today followed by a double NK means that we will be sitting at 5-4-1. Given that 5 vote manip vials were grabbed last night, the elims can probably hammer in that situation, which means that forgoing the NK sorta makes sense to deny information.

I'm going to throw a placeholder vote on STINK (not really any reasoning, but I think this has been a low info game so far, so I'm treating this mostly like a D1).

Edit: I don't think an elim!Hazekiller really makes sense here. Everyone knew I had Bendalloy, but if the elims weren't going to send in a kill, then roleblocking me just preserves my vial. So I'd strongly lean village on whoever blocked me.

Edited March 1, 2022 by Araris Valerian

[DrakeMarshall]

STINK