|TJ| he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) N4: Spoiler 2 Tin Vials 2 Zinc Vials 3 Brass Vials 1 Copper Vial 2 Bronze Vials 1 Gold Vial 1 Electrum Vial 2 Cadmium Vials 1 Aluminum Vial 2 Chromium Vials 1 Hrovell Potion 1 Painrial D5: Spoiler 1 Steel Vial 1 Tin Vial 1 Pewter Vial 3 Copper Vials 2 Bronze Vials 1 Electrum Vial 2 Cadmium Vials 1 Aluminum Vial 2 Chromium Vials Delta: Spoiler -1 Tin -2 Zinc -3 Brass +2 Copper -1 Gold -1 Hrovell Potion -1 Painrial +1 Steel +1 Pewter Araris' post looks like trying to get ahead of an RB claim and I'm side-eyeing that target claim, but keeping an open mind, I'm not gonna discard this so easily - 1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said: Edit: I don't think an elim!Hazekiller really makes sense here. Everyone knew I had Bendalloy, but if the elims weren't going to send in a kill, then roleblocking me just preserves my vial. So I'd strongly lean village on whoever blocked me. If the elims have very less thread control as I believe, then this is a good way to ML someone without making a thread argument and looking suspicious if you flip village, and they get 2 kills N5 anyway. Edit: Forgot to mention, we see only +4 from the Delta, so one item is missing. Edited March 1, 2022 by |TJ|
Kasimir he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, |TJ| said: If the elims have very less thread control as I believe, then this is a good way to ML someone without making a thread argument and looking suspicious if you flip village, and they get 2 kills N5 anyway. It could very well be the tipping point for me given my PoE. But currently putting some pressure on Sart @Sart- if you've been skimming and looking at raw votes, then I'm curious as to how you lean Village on Bip for D1 when her voting patterns were no better or worse than those of the other five side-train voters, one of whom was Archer and thus Evil. 2 hours ago, |TJ| said: Edit: Forgot to mention, we see only +4 from the Delta, so one item is missing. Eyeballing this, I think the only way this makes sense is someone retrieved Copper last Night. Leaning a bit Elim on this in light of Bort and Archer's potential drops. I'm a bit more reluctant to litigate on the Hazekiller issue - our current set of living players seems to provide very little hiding ground for two more Metallurgists, let alone a Hazekiller. Pinch-hitters are a bit unfortunate in this regard since I'd almost rather just get the flip rather than deal with inactivity being replaced by borderline inactivity and the question is whether we commit to killing them or not, which costs us both in tempo and information. By this point, I think I'm factoring out Sart and Walin as final vote candidates, even though they're both technically in my PoE. Mat RBed Archer N3, so someone who was not Archer put in the kill(s). If you think it was not Archer who obtained and used the duralumin/nicrosil, then we're likely committed to at least one more active teammate [Edited to add: Other than the killer.] I don't rule out that Fifth or Szeth were lurking, but I feel that if you are active enough to put in a kill or a boost, you are active enough to put a 'proof of life' post in the thread. The problem is that this line of reasoning commits me to an all-Village train on the top two candidates, which means I really do have to look elsewhere for Elims. @Araris Valerian, why do you believe a kill attempt on Drake softclears him? I admit I don't like the feel of Araris's claim and I'm half-tempted to vote him for that alone. Edited to add: At this point, I'm just going to say that if you are the Hazekiller who RBed Araris, please claim it or drop me a PM if you feel uncomfortable outing yourself to the thread. I think we have to get some clarity on this. Edited March 1, 2022 by Kasimir
Kasimir he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 For no particular reason, I have decided I am going for Tin. I don't really feel like going for steel as I have been informed that another player intends to go for it, and I have decent credences they are Village. I also think that since all Day claims are publicly announced, if said player does in fact make a very suspect kill, and I and everyone still alive will side-eye them tomorrow. So that's fine
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 7 hours ago, Kasimir said: @Araris Valerian, why do you believe a kill attempt on Drake softclears him? I’m not sure where I said that, but a WGG on Drake would certainly be very odd here, since I don’t think he was under much suspicion in the first place.
Kasimir he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said: I’m not sure where I said that, but a WGG on Drake would certainly be very odd here, since I don’t think he was under much suspicion in the first place. Here: Quote Well, I agree that Archer is the obvious choice here. But as our safety officer would say if he were here, we don't want to waste the opportunity for discussion even if we have a clear exe target. Having 3 extra village flips should help with that a bit, not to mention a soft-clear on Drake.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 Oh. That was referring to the Drake/Archer interactions, which you pointed out as being unlikely to be e/e, and I agree.
Illwei Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 5 hours ago, |TJ| said: okay what are the possibilities of a third village Hazekiller? very high here's where I'm at, no backreading Biplet - ??? Sart - ??? Araris Valerian - noticeably different (roleblocked) |TJ| - village DrakeMarshall - village Orlok Tsubodai - ??? Karnatheon - ??? Sequence - village STINK - ??? Tani - probably village Walin - ????? Basically Drake Sequence Tani TJ I think that Drake being NKd makes him village probably, just because I don't see why the Elims would kill him after his gambit because that would have already gotten him village cred. A WGG there doesn't make much sense to me, tbh. Honestly out of the four here, Tani should probably be the first to move down just because of how non-chaotic she's been maybe. The problem is I have basically no read on anyone else. Bip Sart Orlok Karn Stink We're at 13 people right now, that's probably? worst case scenario? 4 v 8 v 1. Which also means this being functionally E/lo doesn't make much sense, unless there's going to be three kills tonight because I missed something? there's also the potential for protects and whatnot.
Araris Valerian he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Illwei said: Which also means this being functionally E/lo doesn't make much sense, unless there's going to be three kills tonight because I missed something? there's also the potential for protects and whatnot. There will be 2 kills tonight and the elims probably have a decent chunk of vote manip, since 5 Zinc/Brass went missing last night. Also in my above comment I somehow forgot that Drake was actually attacked 2 cycles back. So yeah, I village read him for that because like I said, WGG doesn't make lots of sense on him.
Kasimir he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said: There will be 2 kills tonight and the elims probably have a decent chunk of vote manip, since 5 Zinc/Brass went missing last night. Presume you have low E controls nicrosil/duralumin credences?
STINK he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 This thread doesnt seem to be growing as quickly as the others ones huh
Kasimir he/him Posted March 1, 2022 Posted March 1, 2022 (edited) 7 minutes ago, STINK said: This thread doesnt seem to be growing as quickly as the others ones huh Killing the active players certainly seems to have that effect. Hangman? Edited to add: @StrikerEZ don't worry, your thread is safe from me Need sleep. Edited March 1, 2022 by Kasimir
Quivil Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) A Edit: Wait no E Edited March 2, 2022 by Tani
Kasimir he/him Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 While I'd like to keep the pressure on Sart, it's obvious this is not going to be tenable in the current situation. I do still want to know how Sart made that inference, as it feels a bit TMI to me just off D1 voting patterns. I also dislike the position of Szeth's D1 vote as I feel that it seems very unlikely to me that the D1 train was entirely Village, and Fifth's D1 vote seems a bit more high risk for an Elim, with his D2 vote looking weirder. Of the surviving players, Sart and Walin, as I have stated, are non-starters for me. Again - for there to be the number of kills we saw N3, I think we are committed to at least one if not two active Elims. (Recall that Mat RBed Archer N3, so we know that Archer categorically did not send in the kill.) While it's not impossible that Szeth or Fifth sent in orders but did not post, I do consider it unlikely that E!Fifth or E!Szeth would send in orders but fail to post 'proof of life' to the thread, knowing there was a chance that no pinch-hitter could be found at all. To emphasise, this is not a clear on Sart or Walin. I am of the position that one of Sart and Walin could very well be Evil (lower probability to both in terms of team numbers but not impossible); I am just not sold on going on them today as I figure that there must be a catchable teammate behind N3. In no particular order within tiers: Moderate Village: Spoiler Drake Agree with Araris - Drake's Archer push and phishing don't read like an E/E interaction, and agree with Illwei about the NK timing. PM interactions also make me feel better about Drake, including Bort's apparently ignorance of Drake's trolling. Sequence Reactions just seem too pure and strongly Village. Light Village: Spoiler TJ Just feels Village to me from interactions, and attempts to solve/work out the delta - would feel better about him if he's doing more backreading/player solving but I feel he looks better as another early Archer voter. Tani Another read based off interactions, with the usual caveat emptor. Illwei Response to Drake felt sorta Village. Dgaf vote on Archer D3 seems more Village in light of Bort's teammates likely bandwagoning for items. Seems more disengaged with the game than normal. Seems to have claimed Hazekiller. Null+: Spoiler Orlok Positive interactions early in the game; unsure if overanchoring. Noted deviation from Evil meta; unlikely Evil based off N2 kill MO but potentially too distracted to have much of a say in team approach. Null: Spoiler STINK Need I even say anything. Could potentially push him to null+ I think but that's on a very weak basis. Karn Had a PM interaction I read as more Village than Evil but I also disliked the raw opportunistic vote on Bort D3. Perhaps I should read the lack of concern with ingratiation in the vote in a positive light, but eh. Still feel meh. Item choices could be significant in light of the fact Archer likely started with a Hrovell. Araris Credence revision is the name of the game with this guy. Dislike his voting patterns - D1 side-train (normal), and has never explained vote on Thaid, and the post in which he votes for Thaid really reads like he's going to stay on Stick instead, which makes Thaid vote even more inexplicable. Vote comes in a suspicious window on D2 when Archer train was coming online. No seeming reason to do so. Some connection to Bip. Point in Araris's favour is that the N2 kill is also inexplicable on an Araris team. Null-: Spoiler Sart Szeth's D1 vote was immobile enough and I'm not convinced the Stick and TUA trains were completely clean. Unclear where Bip read comes from. Walin Orlok scanned Fifth as having done nothing last night but that's not an especially risky claim. I feel the D1 vote was risky for E!Fifth and E!Fifth had no reason to get involved, but Fifth is a gambit madlad and I could see him wanting to do that. Low sus on Steel but did not want to get involved either. D2 vote looks worse if we think Bip is Village (possibly even otherwise) as that's splinter train, or reluctance to get involved, and reasoning in that post just seems weird. Early PM interactions - felt a bit off. Bip The real shocker here. Voting patterns are as eh as Araris's, having also camped on a D1 side-train with no subsequent follow-through. Interactions would lead me to sort of think Village, but D2 vote is smack in the middle of the Thaid train, pushing it over the Archer train, and so within the window of suspicion. (Possible Elims were not especially invested in saving Archer but I sort of feel the way the Thaid train took off was just - weird, and the main two players we can't account for on that train are Bip and Araris.) I feel the Archer CW point is not as strong as I thought it was, because if we assume Archer already had one Hrovell prepped (and he pretty much had to, given actions economy D3), it's possible he was in distancing mode already, given the fact that two Bort voters had a worse read on Archer than Bort (Drake, Mat) - a factor made worse if Araris was Evil/a leak. I guess while I say Sart and Walin are non-starters, I could be persuaded to go onto Walin. I'd like to hear more from Sart, too. But functionally for me, I'm willing to be talked onto anyone in my Null and Null- categories and will currently put a vote down on Bip. 1
DrakeMarshall he/him Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, Karnatheon said: I(not L) 42 minutes ago, Tani said: W because whynot Spoiler
Kasimir he/him Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 @Sart @Illwei @STINK @Karnatheon @Biplet @Orlok Tsubodai @Sequence @Walin Reminder this is not a parliamentary election, it's okay to vote wrong even if I'd really rather prefer we voted right If we have low vote participation, we go into D6 with the exact same problem again, which is another low info cycle, and another shot in the dark hoping that we will miraculously hit a Elim when people aren't discussing, voicing suspicions, or voting. I get that not everyone has the time or mood or inclination for analysis. But at least, please, if you are a Villager, help the Village read you. At least drop a vote. It doesn't have to be the most well-reasoned thing, just please vote. Thank you. 2
Sart he/him Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 I really disagree with a Biplet vote, not because of their voting habits, but because of who voted against them. Archer voted on them Day 1, and then laid out an increasing amount of pressure in Night 2. I highly doubt that was distancing, and highly suspect that Archer was setting up another mis-exe. Here's an interesting vote count (About halfway through Day 3): Bort (3): JNV, Kasimir, Drake Marshall Archer (2): Illwei, _Stick_ Szeth_Pancakes/Sart (1): Araris Valerian _Stick_ (1): Archer Drake Marshall (1): Tani This obviously solidifies my trust in Drake and Illwei. Tani, despite voting Drake, actually "voted" for Archer on Night 2, which obviously didn't count. I highly suspect the elims would try to start a counter train in an E/E scenario. So, basically, I'm completely giving Araris the side eye. My other alternative is Karnatheon. Why? Because Archer mentioned that Karnatheon was playing D&D with his wife. Problem is, Karnatheon never mentioned playing with his wife, he only mentioned playing D&D. It's either PM info, or an elim slip up from the doc. I don't know how active Karn or Archer was in PMs, but it's something worth investigating. 1
Kasimir he/him Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) 7 hours ago, Sart said: I really disagree with a Biplet vote, not because of their voting habits, but because of who voted against them. Archer voted on them Day 1, and then laid out an increasing amount of pressure in Night 2. I highly doubt that was distancing, and highly suspect that Archer was setting up another mis-exe. 1. If Archer started with the Hrovell D1, Archer was already setting himself up for a potential fall eventually. I note that he walked his lone vote back N1, suggesting it was a 'toneread.' 2. The D1 vote doesn't matter. Elim teams have voted on their own teammates before for low-risk votes. Does Archer's vote hit the threshhold for this? Absolutely. There were two competing trains at that time - Stick and TUA. His vote on Bip never took off and she was not in substantial danger. 3. What do you define as pressure? Archer did not vote Bip for D2. All we see is that Archer tried a half-hearted ISO of her on N2. Why do I call it half-hearted? Because he asked her questions and suggested his vote might return to her D3, without calling for action against her or pushing. This did not actually happen until both Bort and Archer came under pressure, with players indicating they were more interested in taking down Archer than Bort. [Edited to add: His immediate targets were Stick and Drake; in fact, he explicitly marked Bip out as a lean Village read. Is this pressure?] This, we know, was when Archer was already set to take down Mat with him, due to actions economy, OoA, item transfer rules, and the likelihood JNV did not come to Elim notice until D3. If you are committed to E!Araris, then you are committed to the notion that by the time Archer voted on Bip, he already knew that the Bort train was going to take off. I don't see how you can pretend that's a serious countertrain then. I don't consider half-hearted ISO pressure because it's easy to feign suspicions of players; it's harder to actually back them up with substantive voting behaviour. All of this to say: 1. Agree with Karn suspicion, and fair point about the wife detail. I may be convinced to swap to Karn. 2. If Araris flips E, obviously looks better on Sart; if Araris flips V, then Sart and Bip should immediately stand out as suspicious. Edited March 2, 2022 by Kasimir grammar
Illwei Posted March 2, 2022 Posted March 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Kasimir said: Seems more disengaged with the game than normal. kinda went through a break up and checked out, not that i checked in that much in the first place. Sart DrakeMarshall Sequence TJ Tani Orlok Tsubodai Walin STINK Karnatheon Biplet I fell asleep while working on my last post and then didn't remember what i was doing when i woke up. Pretty much where i'm at, with Sart's recent post moving him solidly into my villages. If there's a Elim hiding well in my village tier, I'd say it's TJ- for no real reason. If there's anyone that I'm solidly comfortable just pushing down into the bottom tier, it's Tani.
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