DrakeMarshall

what in tarnation

I think you're thinking of TUO's reaction to RBM's question tbh 1. Any claim to be a Seeker with a guilty result near endgame is automatically suspect. If you're an elim and you think you can win with just 1 more mislynch, a faked scan result is a pretty good way to make sure that it happens. 2. RBM lied about who made the scan during the reveal. I get that villagers conceivably want to avoid outing their role to the elims, but not so much when you have a guilty result in a game with 7 living players. You've got to assess whether there's a greater village motive to do it or a greater elim motive. And the elim motive here is pretty strong - it grants deniability when the lynch goes bad. 3. It looks like RBM waited to see who would get voted before deciding to go ahead with the claim. I imagine the elims would want to hedge and see if they actually needed to intervene in the votes before committing to a fake claim, and RBM fits the profile here. 4. I've told a number of people what my role is already, fairly early on in the game in some cases. You were one of them. RBM hasn't done anything like that, at least as far as I know. Sure, I could be lying about my role, but it's more difficult to commit to something like that earlier on, and I'd argue that Steward isn't really an intuitive fakeclaim if you intend to use it for something later on. If one of us is lying about our roles, it aint me. what even are you reasons tbh?

yes, I can confirm that this is true, we are both part of the Lieutenant's doc why are all the members of the Lieutenant's doc still alive? well, there's 3 options here that I can figure: 1. A member of the Lieutenant doc is an elim. 2. The elims got in contact with the Lieutenant via PMs. 3. The elims just... Didn't hit one of us. I'd argue that this is in fact the most intuitive option - they've only made 1 kill so far, and most players aren't in the doc. I don't see how it's an overreaction though? It feels like too many people are underreacting we have a lot more to go on right now, and the votes haven't been that much more lively than they were yesterday. RBM has made a pretty clear-cut fake claim and is gunning for a mislynch at what might be LyLo. I think pushing and voting for RBM is an eminently suitable reaction to that >:P You can posit framer shenanigans, but those are just inherently a lot less likely than other explanations. We don't even know if there's a framer (...if we got more claims we could resolve this, but I'm suspecting it may be too late to do it today), and if there was they still only have a 1/7 chance of hitting RBM coincident with RBM getting redirected into scanning himself. Idk, I just don't think it makes sense to place your faith in those worlds more than the simpler worlds where RBM is just evil. That's true enough... but I don't believe it's actually the most important consideration here. If we lynch a villager in the Lieutenant doc, the Lieutenant converts to village, so it's a break-even situation... but then there's a night turn, and the elims get a free kill. We are still wasting tempo and losing a villager, and in a game of this size that still matters a lot. This likely shouldn't be treated as a good or acceptable outcome. On the other hand, if we lynch an elim, we actually gain on the elims and get closer to winning. We should obviously be aiming to do that If you're sincere in thinking I'm an elim, then sure, but. you started this post talking about how I seemed village and then did a bunch of mechanical analysis about the lieutenant doc for why you should kill me anyway. And the mechanical analysis simply doesn't outweigh any very substantial credences for who is good and who is evil. Why though tbh? What does this actually accomplish for the village, or what will anyone do with the information? What good does it do for me to out the Lieutenant as opposed to you? I don't get it. I don't think I'm going to out the Lieutenant unless there's a reason to. The Lieutenant prefers to remain hidden. I know what it's like to play as a third party, and going out of my way to screw one over doesn't sit right with me. Presumably, if the Lieutenant was leading in the votes, they could claim and we'd get all of the benefit. Claiming before that just paints a target on their back, which removes much of the advantage of having a confirmed villager or at least confirmed not-evil. I really just don't get it. Honestly, it's somewhat difficult for me to read all of the above as genuine reasoning in good faith. I don't think it's pro-village to reveal the Lieutenant doc members in the first place. If you're village, I still think our best-case scenario was always baiting the elims to kill one of us, not trying to lynch in the doc. One of those things has a much better mechanical outcome than the other. You're assuming that #1 is the only possibility here, which feels maybe informed, because I don't particularly think that #1 here is the most obvious explanation. You're voting alongside RBM who has a suspicious redscan claim at LyLo, but making an effort to distance yourself from RBM's reasoning. Circumstantially Not Great. Especially since your sudden 180 on reading me coincides pretty well with RBM leading in the votes. Tbh feels pretty gaslighty to tell me I'm over-reacting to the RBM claim. I don't want to oversample off of only a single post, but it's hard not to a little. I'm not usually one to sus people who sus me but it really feels like the elim team is cooperating to get me out, and they planned to target a member of the Lieutenant doc so that Coffee could make a mech argument for it. It seems like Coffee is a strong possibilty for RBM's teammate, although I think it could also maybe be Xino due to how the voting looked before RBM's claim. Regardless, RBM is almost certainly fake and is higher priority, so my vote stays put. That's all.

It's when the village only barely still has majority, and needs to vote correctly or lose. It seems at least a real possibility that it's the situation we're in. ...I flatly refuse to derpclear you over a question like this given your claim, it's falsity, and it's timing, but if it's a legit question then hopefully that helps.

Vote Tally RoyalBeeMage (2): Ashbringer, DrakeMarshall No Exe (1): Coffeecat DrakeMarshall (1): RoyalBeeMage Coffeecat (1): xinoehp512 ...Just a reminder, if it is LyLo, then splitting the vote or declining to vote is likely not a great idea. Vote however your conscience leads you but do so with all of the facts ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (@The Unknown Order pinging you bc you haven't voted yet)

Kas can correct me on this if I'm wrong, but I'm like 90% sure that roles listed in black can belong to any alignment. If they were confirmed to have an alignment, they would be listed in the color of that alignment. The part I think you're missing here is that we might just be at LyLo. Supposing there's a Lieutenant, and the elims are aware of that, either through being in the doc or establishing PM contact or just blind guessing the distro. In that case, our split today is potentially 4/2/1 between villagers, elims, and lieutenant. (Unlikely to be a Fourth Bridge or other neutral in this world, I guess.) If the Lieutenant wins they exit the game, so this scenario is functionally a 4/2 split. An incorrect lynch puts us at 3/2 and an elim kill puts us at 2/2. It makes quite a bit of sense for the elims not to lay low in this situation, because all they need is one mislynch. A villager claiming a guilty scan today would have to have actually scanned an elim, which only happens some of the time. But an elim claims a guilty scan 100% of the time today, if they think it'll give them a relatively easy misyeet. I stand by the most likely explanation here being that RBM is lying. It's trying to shoehorn a specific bandwagon at what might well be LyLo, it's timing in the day looks like an attempt to disrupt existing bandwagons that the elims didn't like, and RBM initially tried to make it look like some other secret person was actually on the hook for the scan's truthfulness and not him. I don't think it's a very credible claim, and every post RBM makes where he isn't saying it's a reaction test is making it less likely that I'd believe him if he suddenly pulled a 180 and said it was one. If there's a framer, I'm sorry. (merge edit?) ...Actually wait no, I have an idea. I think there's a way we can go about resolving this with less risks: If there's a framer, then they don't have any good role that they can safely claim. @everyone - It might be time to do a mass claim tbh. In the framer world, this will probably help us a lot with catching them. I think that's well worth it. It would likely save us 2 misyeets and place a lot of pressure on the elims, which is probably the difference between losing and having a real fighting chance. And in the non-framer world, it's probably LyLo already, and you can't take your secrets with you beyond the grave >:P Might as well work with as much information as possible today instead of just sitting on our hands. Either way, seems like maybe it's in our best interests to just get it over with. I aint gonna force anyone though, obviously.

If Bee is telling the truth, then afaik the only mechanical way it's possible for Bee to produces a guilty result with his scan is if Bee himself evaluates as evil under an alignment scan, because the Steward ability points his action back at himself. Except that's fairly nonsensical e!RBM knows my alignment already, and has no real need of scanning anybody, so e!RBM probably just lies about having scanned a certain result, even if he has the role. Or if he did actually go through the motions of scanning me, he'd have known something was wrong after unexpectedly getting a guilty result, and probably wouldn't be doing this. ...I'll caveat that it's possible that there's a framer who framed village!RBM last night and therefore village!RBM redirected into scanning himself got an evil result. But since this requires both 1) a framer to exist and 2) the framer to have targeted RBM specifically, I don't think it's as likely as RBM not telling the truth.

as an aside, I would personally rather not do a no-exe, even if we didn't have the RBM thing playing out In theory, it gives us more information at lylo, but it also gives us fewer votes, and the elims more control over who is talking and making the decisions when it all goes down. and there's something to be said for pumping the brakes just being sort of bad for village morale It might be the best move in some theoretical perfect village, but in the one we live in, I don't think the tradeoffs are worth it honestly ok back to your regularly scheduled programming (...edit: oh, and there's also potentially a malicious third party who wins if we take too long to end the game? granted, they might not be in this game, but delaying might cost us here)

Alright so you're definitely lying. RBM. And there's no way RBM scanned me himself either, because I targeted him last night with my Steward ability. I'll remain open-minded to the possibility of a reaction test, but obviously I won't withdraw my vote from you until you withdraw your claim

I'd assume that if No Exe is the winner, then there is no exe watch Kas show up and clarify that I'm wrong and an idiot >:P How do you figure the vilage could vote out a Lieutenant claimant? Shouldn't we want to avoid doing that, if we believe them?

Both of those queries depend on how many elims there are, I'd say. In a single-elim world, the odds that the Lieutenant and/or Fourth Bridge exists is higher, and the odds that the Lieutenant doc is compromised is lower. In a two-elim world, neutrals are less likely to be in play, especially not multiple of them, and there are at least more chances for an elim to be in the Lieutenant doc. A three-elim world doesn't seem sensible. I'm really undecided about which of those two worlds we're in right now. Well, let's look at the problem from a different angle - supposing there were a Lieutenant, how does that inform your decision-making today? Supposing there's no Lieutenant, how does that inform your decision-making today?

The main use case of keeping it under wraps that I can think of is that if there's a Lieutenant and some people in the doc, then the elims might not know who's in it and they might not know who to avoid hitting with the NK. If they accidentally hit somebody in the doc, that's kind of the best outcome for the village, and by this point a sizeable fraction of the players in the game would be in that doc.

Ok time for a blow-by-blow of the game, it shouldn't even be very long. Xino RPs A bunch of people say hi <TUO, Aeo, Coffee, RBM> More RP <Me, Ash, Xino> Aet votes TUO, self-described as random later on Xino votes RBM in RP form Coffee votes TUO on suspicion that Xino's RBM vote was defending TUO - I actually somewhat think one should vote Xino in this situation, but this is the first vote with an actual reason given, which probably warrants some village credit Ash votes RBM to "follow Xino" which is a bit odd given that Xino didn't share any reasoning for it, but then again, early consolidation isn't a bad thing TUO dislikes the early consolidation smh Ash/TUO likely not E/E I vote Aet, Aeoryi jumps on Aet as well TUO makes animal cracker sacrifices instead of self-pres, villagery tbh Aet tells me why my vote is wrong and votes Ash Aet/Ash interaction, Aet retracts (Ash your endgame-playing-skills are going to be relevant soon if not already ) Xino pivots to Coffeecat once RBM asks why they were voting for him. Doesn't really answer the question, though. CadCom makes a analysis post and votes Xino, they are less likely to be E/E. It bears mentioning that this is the last vote of the cycle, one hour before rollover, with a lot of people saying they won't make rollover. Starting a new wagon at this point comes across as somewhat performative and implies that maybe CadCom is okay with the state of the current voting on Aeternum. Also, what's the benefit of allowing vote manipulation? Idk usually I see elims cast their late votes "to prevent vote manipulation" but I feel like either reasoning is reaching a bit, it's a lot less important than trying your best to get a hit. aaaaaand that's D1, stay tuned for more are connectives even that useful in this game? like, I doubt there's more than 2 elims, and there could pretty reasonably only be 1 well we might as well operate as if they're useful, but it's food for thought - we should also likely be aiming to profile what a lone wolf would be doing in this game state anyways let's talk PoE we've got 7 living players: 3. @Coffeecat 4. @Ashbringer 5. @DrakeMarshall 6. @xinoehp512 7. @RoyalBeeMage 8. @The Unknown Order 9. @CadCom Assuming 1-2 elims, that's an approximate hit rate of 14-28%, for whatever that's worth Anyways I'll remove myself from that 3. @Coffeecat 4. @Ashbringer 6. @xinoehp512 7. @RoyalBeeMage 8. @The Unknown Order 9. @CadCom I'll also remove TUO and RBM, as I believe the reasons to trust them still hold merit 3. @Coffeecat 4. @Ashbringer 6. @xinoehp512 9. @CadCom Willing to give Ash the benefit of the doubt for right now: 3. @Coffeecat 6. @xinoehp512 9. @CadCom And that's the PoE. I predict that however many elims there are can be found in <Coffeecat, Xino, CadCom>. I would tier <CadCom, Xino> on a level below CoffeeCat in trust. It bears mentioning that CadCom wants to vote Xino. I think this is actually a solid reason to village!read CadCom above Xino atm. For one, it indicates that CadCom has a consistent worldview that actually makes sense for v!CadCom in this situation: if v!CadCom, then e!Xino is more likely, and the fact that CadCom (who knows they are village) arrived at e!Xino before anyone else would make quite a bit of sense. For two, I find that elims who are in a PoE of 2 are a lot less likely to try to gun for the other guy - they know that they'll get killed next regardless, and it's a lot harder for them to find the pure motivation to go down that route, as they would much prefer to aim to delay either of the 2 suspects being flipped as much as possible. In conclusion, Xino. I've probably been pocketed by good RP

largely for the same reasons as RBM - D1 voting had a really slow start and I don't think that bodes well for the initial wagons being a hit pitch in that TUA declined to self-pres, and I'm fairly sure that e!TUA isn't shy about self-pres I... wouldn't call it a clear probably, clear's a strong word, but like, TUA looks reasonably village here my only sticking point is really that TUA didn't vote, but the above outweighs that that would be appreciated, sleep well oh also if I die tonight please remember that a game of this size likely doesn't last very many cycles ...I think it's reasonable to assume the average game length Kas expects is less than 4 cycles, otherwise the Fourth Bridge winning at the beginning of cycle 5 wouldn't be sufficiently challenging. Or to approach it from a different angle, ~2 deaths per cycle and 9 players (not all of whom are necessarily aligned along village/elim faction lines) does not a very lengthy game make. So, we likely only have between 1 and 2 days to get it right, so just.. keep that in mind going forward o7

1. @Aeternum 2. @Aeoryi - Likely village. 3. @Coffeecat - A lil sus, but there's a Reason:tm: I'd really prefer to wait on this that should eventually become apparent. 4. @Ashbringer - A lil sus, but there's a Reason:tm: I'd really prefer to wait on this that should eventually become apparent. 5. @DrakeMarshall - This guy is really cool. 6. @xinoehp512 - ??????, nice RP though. 7. @RoyalBeeMage - Likely village. 8. @The Unknown Order - Likely village. 9. @CadCom - A lil sus. That's my current legacy of reads with no context, have a nice day. <CadCom, Xino, Coffee> or something liek that for PoE.