Long Game 83: The Survivor

[Kasimir he/him]

5 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

So, it's more likely to have been from a Metallurgist or a Fabrial instead of Bort because it'd require all these items to be passed to him, and vials like Tin and Bronze are used by the holder, so it doesn't make sense to change hands as they can go for more items instead. 

I'm still strongly doubting that result because Bort explicitly outed himself to me D3 to appeal to me to change my vote on him early on - part of the reason was the logistics of passing the vials. I do believe that he had no incentive to do otherwise if not because he had items that he wanted to pass on. He clearly claimed actions, and referenced vials he wanted to pass. If he has multiple items, and he explicitly claimed the Hrovell and wanted to make a deal with me for it, this explains why he was so urgent about wanting to survive - he realised that being able to only pass one vial at a time posed a problem for him.

Edited to add: Just to be clear, I agreed to be silent about his alignment because I did not feel it was honourable to out an outed Elim like this to the thread - it's one thing to discover one via analysis or a scan, and another to just be told their identity and to out them. If I had been pulling a kel play, this would be a different matter and I'd be down for it but I don't find it fair or sporting. However, the result was that since I'd also been contacted by Hal, I requested Hal find another player.

I'm aware of a Metallurgist, and they have so far claimed to have done nothing. Your theory seems to require this be a deliberate bus, along with the use of an E!Metallurgist, or E!Fabrial - all fabrials so far have been claimed by Archer and are accounted for.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

I can't believe I got the Iron yayyy

@ Elims should I use it on Kas tonight?  I've been told he's a likely target despite his alignment. I think I will.

Bort's flip looks good on Tani (see: their back-and-forth D1)

Village: Sequence, Mat, illwei, Tani, Drake, Fifth, Steel, Bip

Others: Szeth, Araris, JNV, Archer, TJ, Orlok, Karn, Hael, Stink

Out of these, I'm currently most suspicious of JNV and Archer

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Village: Sequence, Mat, illwei, Tani, Drake, Fifth, Steel, Bip

I feel sad when I've been doing my best but don't merit inclusion here  Even if I understand why.

@StrikerEZ, @Experience, @Devotary of Spontaneity - Is it possible to request that the Stockpile numbers be correctly updated in each Day/Night writeup? I notice the D2 write-up is still lacking the 1 Duralumin Vial which caused me some confusion until I went back through the posts to note Experience mentioning it had been left out by mistake. Thank you!

---

H'okay. I have culled things and am still working on the spreadsheet. As far as I'm concerned, there are two main theories:

• Theory A: Bort burned everything, and a Metallurgist/AF added five items:

In this world, Bort pretty much has to have had the bolded metals, and even so, this doesn't tally with his known actions anyway. So we still have book-keeping to do.

Quote

• Hazekiller
• Chromium/Electrum/Bendalloy/Cadmium/Shade Gun
• Duralumin/Aluminum
• Copper
• Zinc/Brass
• Votes
• Metallurgist/Attractor Fabrial
• Passing Vials
• Nicrosil
• Thief Stealing
• Tin/Bronze/Gold

Simply because anything else would come after the lynch. 

• Theory B: Bort did not burn everything, and the items that dropped are from Bort.

As long as Bort dropped even one item that wasn't the Hrovell, the Metallurgist/AF theory is automatically false because the minimum number of items is 5.

Either way, I think it's worth attempting to run some contact tracing, so I am doing up the spreadsheet at this point in time to check.

[|TJ| he/him]

3 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I'm still strongly doubting that result because Bort explicitly outed himself to me D3 to appeal to me to change my vote on him early on - part of the reason was the logistics of passing the vials. I do believe that he had no incentive to do otherwise if not because he had items that he wanted to pass on. He clearly claimed actions, and referenced vials he wanted to pass. If he has multiple items, and he explicitly claimed the Hrovell and wanted to make a deal with me for it, this explains why he was so urgent about wanting to survive - he realised that being able to only pass one vial at a time posed a problem for him.

Wait, he claimed his items to you then? If he had 5 items (6 including Hrovell), what was the deal about? It's a 1/6 chance for you to get the Hrovell.

My main question is the "why?" though. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by |TJ|

[Kasimir he/him]

7 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Wait, he claimed his items to you then? If he had 5 items (6 including Hrovell), what was the deal about? It's a 1/6 chance for you to get the Hrovell.

Idea was for him to offload his vials to his teammates and let me take the Hrovell from him.

To be clear, I did not go for it as I knew he had been scanned and in any case didn't want to open that can of worms - so I merely agreed not to vote on him unless a train materialised (which I knew was going to happen once Hal found someone else) and that I was not going to out him anyway because it was dishonourable, unfair, and unsporting. 

Edited to add: @|TJ| - I'm halfway through the spreadsheet now and I've just realised. What if it's both? A Metallurgist uses their actions and Bort drops a couple of items (2-3.) This should mask the delta - this is what happened D2 and is driving me nuts because we have a visible delta of +2 but Archer claims to have added six items so we have a hidden delta of +4 that's hard to account for.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Stick. she/her]

56 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Out of these, I'm currently most suspicious of JNV and Archer

I just reread the last turn and noticed that JNV added a vote on Bort pre-scan-reveal, when the VC looked like this:

Quote

Bort (3): JNV, Kasimir, Drake Marshall
Archer (2): Illwei, _Stick_
_Stick_ (1): Archer
Drake Marshall (1): Tani

NGL this should make JNV look village. They also said:

Quote

The thing that really gets me about whether Bort is an elim is if Bort is telling the truth and the elims didn't kill then why did they stop stockpiling now? If they picked up duralimin or nicrosil why would they use it now? If they didn't, why would thye burn all their vials? To frame bort? They could have made a case for Bort even if tere was just the one as  "oh this is them covering for Bort lets get him out of here". I don't get why the elims would do this and I think the confusion about the elim strategy is fueling confusion about Bort by  proxy so... I don't think Id be opposed to them dying today? 

I don't know what to make of this entire paragraph honestly. It seems to be arguing that Bort can't be evil while also saying they'd like to vote him out. But this again makes JNV look village because why wouldn't e!JNV push for the Archer exe? Are Bort/JNV/Archer e/e/e? If so, why chose to vote Bort over Archer? Bort evidently had a lot of items and things that he wished to pass to teammates (or at least that's what he told Kas). I'm struggling to make sense of a e!JNV world with this post here, unless this was meant for distancing and JNV had intended to retract this vote. There were still over 24 hours left in the turn when this post was made. idk, I should be moving JNV to village reads but my gut says no for the moment. Null it is.

Edited February 25, 2022 by _Stick_
grammar

[Kasimir he/him]

2 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I just reread the last turn and noticed that JNV added a vote on Bort pre-scan-reveal, when the VC looked like this:

I should note that the timestamp of that vote (I was paying attention) came after I agreed to withdraw my vote from Bort unless (until) the Great Train materialised. Which means anyone teammates with Bort would likely know it was really 2-2 because I was going to pull my vote off.

Not saying this doesn't necessarily make JNV look Village - I'm still thinking through on that - but probably I wouldn't give as high Village credence for the move, I suppose.

[Stick. she/her]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

I should note that the timestamp of that vote (I was paying attention) came after I agreed to withdraw my vote from Bort unless (until) the Great Train materialised. Which means anyone teammates with Bort would likely know it was really 2-2 because I was going to pull my vote off.

aaaa the plot thickens

[Kasimir he/him]

30 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

aaaa the plot thickens

/shrug

I promised Hal to keep silent until the scans were revealed. This meant making sure Bort didn't know he'd been scanned and that a Great Train would eventually materialise when Hal found whoever - which now seems to have been Araris. I also promised Bort not to out him, freely and without inducement, because to do otherwise was dishonourable and unfair. This included aggressively pushing him, so I didn't do that. It was a bit of an insane needle to thread, I admit, trying to keep both letter and spirit of my word to both parties.

This led to a lot of GM PM yelling but this is more or less the sum of it.

Edited to add: @|TJ| Ah no I'm tripping - this cannot be like D2 as the delta is declared. D2 delta came out of a Night Turn so delta masking occurs there, but not here.

Edited February 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[Quivil]

9 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Village needs AFs more, so I'm considering them off-limits and won't touch them.

Ayyy Village! Kas is being super helpful. Should he get an AF?

 

Ed1t: 

47 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

because to do otherwise was dishonourable and unfair.

I am now a bit glad that I am a female and therefore have no honor (according to Arthurian language.)

Edited February 25, 2022 by Tani

[Kasimir he/him]

Just now, Tani said:

Ayyy Village! Kas is being super helpful. Should he get an AF?

Thanks, but would disagree with this one. Item flow is more important - it allows the Village to carry out actions, block Elims, and gain info. Someone should claim it and use it - I'm happy to keep my Shade Gun and Painrial monopoly, and I'm almost done with my item collection side-quest anyway. Pretty sure I'll finish before we find all the Traitors  

The really difficult win con is staying alive, but I'm chill about it now. If I die, I die. It's been a fun ride

After all, Kases were not meant to stay safe and alive.

They were meant to burn and die >>

[Stick. she/her]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

The really difficult win con is staying alive, but I'm chill about it now. If I die, I die. It's been a fun ride

After all, Kases were not meant to stay safe and alive.

They were meant to burn and die >>

 

Spoiler

 

 

[|TJ| he/him]

Alright, checking out Kas' theory, Bort dropped these items - 

Quote

• Tin
• Bronze
• Pewter
• Nicrosil

Ignoring the Attractor Fabrial here because it cannot be passed. 

Tin:

Quote

• Stick - D1 [pass chances N1, D2, N2]
• Matrim - D1 [pass chances N1, N2]
• Orlok - D2 [pass chances N2]
• Elim starting with Tin

Bronze: 

Quote

• X - N1 [pass chances D2, N2]
• Elim starting with Bronze

Pewter: 

Quote

• Kas - D1
• Elim starting with Pewter

Nicrosil:

Quote

• X2 - N1 [pass chances N1, D2, N2]
• Matrim - D2 [pass chances N2]
• Elim starting with Nicrosil

Giving us - [Mat/Stick/Orlok/???], [X1/???], [???], [X2/Mat/???]

Removing village reads of Mat and Stick, removing Orlok because I don't see e!Orlok passing Tin to a teammate, I don't see the profit in it - 

Elim starting with Tin, N1 Bronze Grabber [X1], Elim Starting with Pewter, N1 Nicrosil Grabber [X2] + Bort [Started with Fabrial?]

I'd assume you know something more than me about X1 and X2, but bro - you can see why this is not feasible, right?

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: @|TJ| Ah no I'm tripping - this cannot be like D2 as the delta is declared. D2 delta came out of a Night Turn so delta masking occurs there, but not here.

I - I'm sooo lost lmaooo xD

Edited February 25, 2022 by |TJ|
missed Elim starting with Nicrosil point

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, |TJ| said:

Alright, checking out Kas' theory, Bort dropped these items - 

Ignoring the Attractor Fabrial here because it cannot be passed. 

Tin:

Bronze: 

Pewter: 

Nicrosil:

Giving us - [Mat/Stick/Orlok/???], [X1/???], [???], [X2/Mat]

Removing village reads of Mat and Stick, removing Orlok because I don't see e!Orlok passing Tin to a teammate, I don't see the profit in it - 

Elim starting with Tin, N1 Bronze Grabber [X1], Elim Starting with Pewter, N1 Nicrosil Grabber [X2] + Bort [Started with Fabrial?]

I'd assume you know something more than me about X1 and X2, but bro - you can see why this is not feasible, right?

I - I'm sooo lost lmaooo xD

I don't think it's so straightforward because we've got the D2 problem in a nutshell. Basically, Archer used the AF N1 and so on D2, we're supposed to see a delta of +6, but the visible delta is +3. Since item grabs at night are not announced, we don't know where the masked delta is. Yes, we can infer it must be on pre-existing items but that's everything not Cadmium and something else, basically. I'll check my spreadsheet later. 

Either way, rejecting this because there's only one known loose Bronze and I Village read that player, so yes, we'll chalk this down to a potentially hostile Metallurgist, probably the same as the one who did the D1 pull. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Kasimir
justification

[Mat he/him]

I'm giving village points to TJ for trying to figure out the item situation, and for pointing out the extra vial added. I think that the most likely option is that a second Metallurgist used their action- I'd be surprised if there was only one in the game, and the stockpile was looking low. It's also possible that someone else started with an AF (clearly people do- Bort did) and just didn't use it before because the stockpile was full and Archer publicly had it covered.

8 hours ago, |TJ| said:

I was trying to figure out why the elims would pass Bort items, because the role-block on him was revealed during D2, so logically they should have started clearing out items from him because of increased scrutiny, but here we're seeing the exact opposite of this

This was my biggest issue as well- if Bort dropped all the items that appeared, that would require the elims to have started with at least a Pewter and then passed it to Bort- signifying that Bort was the elim who was under the most fire. Considering he didn't really have a lot against him until basically the reveal (there was the RB but there was also a lot of uncertainty around that), I find that unlikely. It would suggest an amazingly low-profile elim team that would be limited to only players who were under less suspicion than Bort, and that's just the Pewter- there's no reason to pass Bort the other items either. An unaccounted-for Metallurgist/AF makes more sense now that we know there was 5 items added and not 4.

Some reads thoughts, but I haven't had the chance to reread yet:

As I already mentioned TJ looks better to me- iirc he voted Bort pre-reveal (though as I'm typing this out I'm questioning if this is true xD) but either way he has shown interest in cracking the item drop weirdness and an elim has little reason to point out the extra item that would make the Bort Dropped Everything theory unlikely.

Still don't like Bip- her Tani fixation was weird to me since she dropped it once it got a lot of attention (from me, at least) and one of her points about Tani was that Tani posted early on and then dropped into inactivity sharply. This of course can be explained by Sunday, but what I find suspicious is that Bip has since done the exact same thing.

As has been stated many times, Archer doesn't look good. His early Bort vote/retraction is textbook distancing, and he turned it into a defense that was crumbled under the reveal. He also has stayed inconsistent with his reads (voting Bip while village reading her, etc) and apparently has been misleading with the item numbers he added.

On JNV, I don't think Kas' point is enough to override my feelings that their vote on Bort was villagey. I read them light village as of now, both for their Bort vote and because of previous feelings.

Stick/Drake/Sequence I'm still reading village, and Illwei to a lesser extent. I'm hoping that I can find some elim reads when I relook at the earlier turns but solving the game by finding all the villagers works too  

Edited February 25, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Biplet she/her]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Still don't like Bip- her Tani fixation was weird to me since she dropped it once it got a lot of attention (from me, at least) and one of her points about Tani was that Tani posted early on and then dropped into inactivity sharply. This of course can be explained by Sunday, but what I find suspicious is that Bip has since done the exact same thing.

Hi. Still don’t like tani, but no one is following me on that train so it’s not worth pursuing right now. Unless you’re also suspicious and finally want to join me. Also, I am less sus of her now (tho still sus) bc the Sunday thing is valid and I’m not going to villainize someone for taking personal time on Sundays.

Sorry for my own activity drop. My irl has been very crazy what with this freezing weather. Yesterday I slipped on ice and fell down the stairs, and then spent my evening in bed resting the injuries XD

[Mat he/him]

5 minutes ago, Biplet said:

Hi. Still don’t like tani, but no one is following me on that train so it’s not worth pursuing right now. Unless you’re also suspicious and finally want to join me. Also, I am less sus of her now (tho still sus) bc the Sunday thing is valid and I’m not going to villainize someone for taking personal time on Sundays.

Sorry for my own activity drop. My irl has been very crazy what with this freezing weather. Yesterday I slipped on ice and fell down the stairs, and then spent my evening in bed resting the injuries XD

No, not suspicious of Tani. I think her beardnut interaction with Bort is v/e.

Ah, that is a problem and also understandable. Hope you feel better soon!

[Biplet she/her]

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ah, that is a problem and also understandable. Hope you feel better soon!

Thanks! Yes, as we discovered yesterday, Texans can’t walk when it’s icy

[Kasimir he/him]

20 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

An unaccounted-for Metallurgist/AF makes more sense now that we know there was 5 items added and not 4.

TJ and I were discussing - we think it'd be more likely to be a hostile Metallurgist at this point, because they've been pointedly adding during the Day (recall we had a D1 drop as well.) It's easier to attribute both to the same player, but we're of the mind a Day drop looks more hostile because it immediately allows Night collection of items with zero accountability - imagine if steel had dropped at Night!

[|TJ| he/him]

50 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It's also possible that someone else started with an AF (clearly people do- Bort did) and just didn't use it before because the stockpile was full and Archer publicly had it covered.

You're right about someone else possibly starting with AF, but if we're going with 'someone else filled the stockpile' and not 'Bort dropped items' route, this means that the  Fabrial present was not dropped Bort, but was spawned by the refill instead. 

54 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

As I already mentioned TJ looks better to me- iirc he voted Bort pre-reveal (though as I'm typing this out I'm questioning if this is true xD)

Nope xD Voted for Archer lmaoo  I had a better read on Archer than on Bort.  

[Mat he/him]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

You're right about someone else possibly starting with AF, but if we're going with 'someone else filled the stockpile' and not 'Bort dropped items' route, this means that the  Fabrial present was not dropped Bort, but was spawned by the refill instead.  

Ah, right. Metallurgist I think is more likely anyway.

[Kasimir he/him]

17 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

Nope xD Voted for Archer lmaoo  I had a better read on Archer than on Bort.  

I have to say that while going back through the thread to try to populate the spreadsheet (do not recommend, do not do this when tired in a complex game it's annoying af), I noticed Steel actually got onto an Archer push on D2 and called Archer out for the Thaid D2 vote. Does look a bit better to me on account of that, but I think that has to wait for an Archer flip or whatever decision is made tomorrow.

[Stick. she/her]

Honestly don't see why a village Metallurgist would want to use their action during the day. Action economy is not a problem here. I'm betting that if there's a Metallurgist behind this, they are certainly elim, at least IMO. A villager would ideally want transparency I think.

edit:

What does everybody make of this from one of Bort's posts from last turn:

Quote

I think Illwei's vote is on me now, so I'll place my vote on Archer right now to keep us balanced. Other than to preserve my life, a noble goal in it's own right, lol, I don't like how he's set this train up. He pushes the vote onto me, using the RB claim, and then once it's taken hold, he's slipped off to vote for someone else.

I'd already given thought to how Bort's vote on Archer could've been a placeholder vote - that he intended to switch over as soon as another CW appeared. But his reasoning (bolded) makes me pause. Does that look e/e? I'm honestly not sure.

Edited February 25, 2022 by _Stick_

[Kasimir he/him]

48 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

I'd already given thought to how Bort's vote on Archer could've been a placeholder vote - that he intended to switch over as soon as another CW appeared. But his reasoning (bolded) makes me pause. Does that look e/e? I'm honestly not sure.

• Reads list problems suggesting convenience rather sincerity or evolution of thought process including CW on light Village read, refusal to vote Evil read, strange null culling and zero voting on them, suggesting light Village read is Evil
• Potential inconsistency over item fuzzing
• Refusal to engage in good faith over Drake (either Drake or Archer has to be lying at this point, take your pick)
• Anomalous response to Drake
• Distancing-type vote on Bort
• Thaid train initiator (+ doesn't map well to Bort attitude)
• Edited to add: Defense of Bort doesn't check out in terms of own posted reads and requires Drake to be extremely Evil

I feel that it would have to be a very convincing singular data point to convince me to override everything wrong with Archer at this point. I'm not sure this is it.

Edited to add 2: I'd do the Spongebob trash meme at this point but I'm too tired.

Edited to add 3: I'm mostly done with the spreadsheet and dead inside and I just want sleep and have sent Hal what I can.

Here's one way to square the Bort circle though it involves bracketing the N1-D2 unknown +3 delta problem:

Quote

• Hazekiller
• Chromium/Electrum/Bendalloy/Cadmium/Shade Gun
• Duralumin/Aluminum
• Copper
• Zinc/Brass
• Votes
• Passing Vials
• Nicrosil
• Thief Stealing
• Tin/Bronze/Gold
• Items returning to/leaving the Stockpile
• Metallurgist/Attractor Fabrial

Based off known actions, the neatest way to resolve it (i.e. without postulating infinitely many vials at which point it becomes like quasi-particles) is to suppose Bort started with a vial and picked one up N2. If we Ockham's Razor it, then Bort hit Mat with chromium D3 after having picked it up N2 - it burns the vial and comes before the lynch, and is consistent with a previous action (using the painrial on Mat N2 to try to steal nicrosil.)

Note: I mention the Mat incident because I think it illustrates something that should become public knowledge; that Elims are clearly targeting as well based on public item claims and that nicrosil was/is a priority of theirs. As the nicrosil has been destroyed, the point is kind of moot, so I think it's well worth warning people about this.

I guess if Bort didn't start with it, another possibility is having killed Ash and gotten a vial off Ash - at least two of Ash's known vials come before the lynch in OoA as well (cadmium, bendalloy), so he could burn that too. And to be clear, Bort had to have burned everything, or we fall short of the threshold required for a Metallurgist to be plausible.

Cadmium or copper are the most plausible if we think he picked it up N2 - almost every other metal has been locked down and accounted for, unless  we speculate about the N1-D2 delta. But that shouldn't matter either, because Bort claimed to have gotten the painrial N1, and certainly, other players who tried to get the painrial claimed they were unsuccessful. 

Edited February 25, 2022 by Kasimir

[STINK he/him]

Crazy opinion I know but I for one think this game was not made for spreadsheets