Long Game 83: The Survivor

[Kasimir]

Just now, Bort said:

Ok, cool. Good to know.

I remember it being a bit stricter back in the day

Can confirm some of them have yelled at me when I tried to enforce the old rules  But it's generally a 'depends on GM' deal these days.

[Quivil]

5 hours ago, Kasimir said:

He pointed out that Elims in fact have to work harder to come by their conclusions honestly - they are well aware that this scan is false, but are also aware they can't reveal that it's false too quickly.. They have to show their working, and are wary of a trap. Conversely, Village responses would be pretty apparent both by immediacy (Illwei; no conferring with any apparent doc), lack of TMI and purity (confusion and acceptance, Sequence), or they have to show their working - it's apparent when a Villager derives the conclusion it's a false scan through careful effort and collection of evidence/consultation as compared to when TMI is present. For instance, Drake noted you inferred very quickly - relative to the others - that this was a widespread fake scan. This should be suspicious, especially compared to the raw, baseline responses, and the fact of the matter is that - just as Meerkat worked out in AG8 - due to Villagers being in the majority, their responses can be taken to be baseline.

The alternative is to simply do what I did, which is a raw MO plot of the reactions and to look for outliers.

Ultimately though, your argument is saying that a Villager scan is less valuable, and I honestly call osik on this, because Elims are being fed information they know to be false, which means they are looking out for what the catch is and are trying to act like any Villager would. The presence of TMI is the difference-maker here, not the scam type. I'd further argue that it's precisely because Village Meerkat and Village Illwei used Evil scans in previous games that swapping things around shakes things up - it makes things less predictable and reverses the meta to try to break Elim complacency or the idea they can bury this.

As Drake has said, he's willing to explain his thoughts in PMs, due to the limitations of his meme style, so why aren't you interested in actively asking him about them?

The timing, execution, and conclusions are suspicious? How so? For reasons you can't even state? All this while while you keep on fishing for a train? If you want to do a comparison to your behaviour in MR56, I'll gladly give you one. You declared an Evil scan on Thaid with no set-up whatsoever. Immediately - within ten minutes of your post suggesting no real read on Thaid. If that wasn't a screaming red flag, you must have expected half of MR56 to be colourblind! You claim this in a game with no sign of items whatsoever apart from one-shots created by a specific player, who was lynched on D1. You expect there to be reactions and claimed to be okay with one reaction. And what did it do? What results did you get? You kind of just shrugged and gave us barely there reads on Aman and waffled on Stick. 

Drake has produced an entire reads list, has claimed Investigator in a game where the role is known to exist, has actually committed to doing the set-up properly and has been willing to discuss and defend his conclusions with the various people who PMed him. I should know - I'm one of them. Minimally, he was way more thorough than MR56 Archer was. Maximally, he's being more upfront - within discursive limits - than MR56 Archer was. The timing was suspicious? On D3, and revealed before the halfway mark of the cycle? Was there discussion that was being derailed? Sorry, because I'm not seeing it. What was there to be derailed when Drake initiated this play at the beginning of the cycle? Even if there was derailment (where? I challenge you to show me it!) - derailment is not the responsibility of one player - I said this as Meerkat and will say it again. It is the responsibility of every Villager who needs to get out in the thread and actually discuss all the things. 

The conclusions are suspicious? Why so? If you disagree with his reads, why so? And if not, if you - as indicated - haven't even bothered to talk to Drake before calling them suspicious or seeing his working, then I am absolutely not surprised at all that you think he's suspicious. Not wanting to actually make sense of how people come to their conclusions has a way of doing that.

I'm sorry, but if you want red flags, MR56 Archer and now Archer has it, and I sincerely hope you're trying TWTBAW because I'm getting a lot of bad vibes off you.

Man, I was really going to sit back and say nothing for this cycle and let Village Village and let me do me but I legit cannot even with this sort of trainwreck. Cannot. Even.

So here's my question. If you're so sure that Bort is Village, to the point you're defending him to the hilt, if Bort flips Elim, will you accept us lynching you with zero resistance whatsoever? You've claimed adamantly that the arguments against Bort hold no water - despite JNV's being about as reasonable as your thoughts on Thaid despite attempts to gaslight them out of existence. In your eyes, there is no case against Bort at all, so you shouldn't object to being lynched next if Bort at any point flips Evil. And I for one am happy to go through with it, given how closely you've tied yourself to Bort.

Kas, thank you for talking me out of being petty.

Drake, I'm sorry. I was being petty.

[Bort]

What? Kas being yelled at my a GM? How shocking!!!

 

[Kasimir]

1 minute ago, Tani said:

Kas, thank you for talking me out of being petty.

Drake, I'm sorry. I was being petty.

Anytime, Tani  

2 minutes ago, Bort said:

What? Kas being yelled at my a GM? How shocking!!!

>>

I'm sure you remember how much Hreo and Tulir yelled at me and Wyrm for the Switch

But no, yelled at by my players for enforcing this 

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, time to kill the thread.

I got contacted by a player who I’ll refer to as Hal. Hal said that an Investigator (not Drake) scanned them as village N1, and then scanned Bort as elim on N2. I have not been scanned, just to clarify, but to avoid putting Hal in too much danger they reached out to me to do the reveal. The whole thing seems plausible given the N1 roleblock on Bort, but if Bort flips village, Hal said they will reveal themselves and the Investigator.

So Szeth Bort. And probably Archer next cycle if this works.

[Haelbarde]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

Time was, we had to go back to every post and green out all previous votes!

Oh for the jate ruug'la tuure  when this was still true.

 

[Quivil]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, time to kill the thread.

I got contacted by a player who I’ll refer to as Hal. Hal said that an Investigator (not Drake) scanned them as village N1, and then scanned Bort as elim on N2. I have not been scanned, just to clarify, but to avoid putting Hal in too much danger they reached out to me to do the reveal. The whole thing seems plausible given the N1 roleblock on Bort, but if Bort flips village, Hal said they will reveal themselves and the Investigator.

So Szeth Bort. And probably Archer next cycle if this works.

Bort

Edited February 24, 2022 by Tani

[|TJ|]

11 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

The whole thing seems plausible given the N1 roleblock on Bort, but if Bort flips village, Hal said they will reveal themselves and the Investigator.

Bort Archer

Edited February 24, 2022 by |TJ|

[Haelbarde]

 

On 23/02/2022 at 1:21 PM, Archer said:

Aman is what I'd call a low info hit, Ashbringer's posts might be worth checking. I can't remember who they were voting for. 

I mean, both players could reasonably be fear killed, and low activity so far this game just makes them easier to justify as early hits because the comparitively low info.

14 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, time to kill the thread.

I got contacted by a player who I’ll refer to as Hal. Hal said that an Investigator (not Drake) scanned them as village N1, and then scanned Bort as elim on N2. I have not been scanned, just to clarify, but to avoid putting Hal in too much danger they reached out to me to do the reveal. The whole thing seems plausible given the N1 roleblock on Bort, but if Bort flips village, Hal said they will reveal themselves and the Investigator.

So Szeth Bort. And probably Archer next cycle if this works.

I had done a read through of thread and was thinking that Bort RB didn't really seem a compelling case for a lynch based on the absence of a N1 kill, given they can stockpile steel, but I suppose that changes things.

Guess I will park a vote on Bort while I think stuff through further...

[Steeldancer]

Wow. Looks like I missed a whole boatload of stuff during my frantic studying for this stupid test. Let's see if I can briefly figure out what happened. 

I got a PM from Drake saying he scanned me, but from the looks of it everyone got one. This caused Drama, but still (even if a lie) kind of reads to me as a village thing to do. 

And now apparently Bort got scanned evil? That's pretty damning. I'll vote Bort . 

I haven't taken my test yet, I'm going to be taking it this morning. Just wanted to hop on before class and actually read thread.

[|TJ|]

@Araris Valerian, did they say why they chose to disclose the info through you, specifically?

[Araris Valerian]

6 minutes ago, |TJ| said:

@Araris Valerian, did they say why they chose to disclose the info through you, specifically?

They had some reasons for trusting me, but I’m not going to give away the specifics.

[Bort]

Well. Not much you can say to that.

It's been fun guys!

Bort

[Haelbarde]

On 23/02/2022 at 11:23 PM, Kasimir said:

Edited to add: FYI that my current order is in on the Shade Gun, under the assumption Village would prefer to play with an anti-investiture knife. Please let me know if you'd prefer me to go for the other one instead.

Also, I don't think anyone else has claimed the N'oyayc'woor Chekar (Anti-Investiture Knife) in thread so I might throw my hat in the ring for it, given Kas is claiming the Kyrayc'tracy'uur (Shade Gun), and Tani the Sapanyc'gota (Attractor Fabrial). 

 

[Stick.]

16 hours ago, Archer said:

Stick, did you know that you're the only person who has been on both successful mix wagons?

I did - and what's worse is that I don't have a single item to show for it! >:[

16 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ask for reasons if you want them, in thread or in PMs, whatever.

Why do you read TJ elim?

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, time to kill the thread.

I got contacted by a player who I’ll refer to as Hal. Hal said that an Investigator (not Drake) scanned them as village N1, and then scanned Bort as elim on N2. I have not been scanned, just to clarify, but to avoid putting Hal in too much danger they reached out to me to do the reveal. The whole thing seems plausible given the N1 roleblock on Bort, but if Bort flips village, Hal said they will reveal themselves and the Investigator.

So Szeth Bort. And probably Archer next cycle if this works.

Um okay

I can't see this being a lose-lose for the village so Bort it is

Also Hal sounds way too similar to Hael smh Araris you could've put more effort in that fake name :P.

14 minutes ago, Bort said:

Well. Not much you can say to that.

It's been fun guys!

Bort

Oooo this is confirmation is it? :0

 

[Archer]

59 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I got contacted by a player who I’ll refer to as Hal. 

wonder who that could be

59 minutes ago, Haelbarde said:

[hello!] 

:thonk:

5 minutes ago, Bort said:

Well. Not much you can say to that.

It's been fun guys!

Bort

You've got to be kidding me. Bort

If it's a lie, Araris has next round to tell us I guess. And that looks like open wolfing. 

Kas, Drake evidently explained things to you but not me, so thanks for sharing. Drake has been dodging the question in our PM. But you can be forgiven for being suspicious of me, if this is true I basically need the investigator to scan me please 

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Archer said:

Nah, my stance earlier was based on me thinking the elims lost their vial and were trying to show they still had two but were really using a vial doubler. Now that I know they keep the vial, it makes no sense they'd submit exactly two kills in a situation where Bort is evil. And again, no one is pulling up anything Bort has said, which is the kind of nonconfrontational exe elims love. 

I'm writing off Kas' vote, but you've got to see that JNV's looks sus, and Drake still hasn't explained their reasons. 

I don't know why you're considering voting for me, but you're one of two trusts I've got right now. Are you still willing to do Biplet? Stick

 @Sequence wanna join the sheep Mat's-reads-before-they-derailed club? 

This first paragraph in retrospect is kinda funny, didn't get a chance to reply to it last night but I'm kind of glad that I didn't because now there's a scan claim so I don't need to :D. Speaks for itself.

As Kas said, JNV's vote was thought out and Drake clearly has reasons.

Archer tried Pocket. Pocket failed.  Yes I still like Biplet as a later option, maybe, but now? I think not...

Tagging the new player smh what kind of a play is that xD And my reads derailed? They're basically exactly the same. Except for you're in the e list instead of the null list :P. And I think I moved around my village tiers a bit but like none of my elim reads have changed.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, time to kill the thread.

I got contacted by a player who I’ll refer to as Hal. Hal said that an Investigator (not Drake) scanned them as village N1, and then scanned Bort as elim on N2. I have not been scanned, just to clarify, but to avoid putting Hal in too much danger they reached out to me to do the reveal. The whole thing seems plausible given the N1 roleblock on Bort, but if Bort flips village, Hal said they will reveal themselves and the Investigator.

So Szeth Bort. And probably Archer next cycle if this works.

Guess I'll just stay where I am, and keep that coin for later use :P. 

11 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Why do you read TJ elim?

This is a bit of an outdated read but tbf TJ hadn't posted in awhile. I don't really like his vote history or his reasons for said votes, they kind of crumbled upon further inspection a lot of the time. That being said I really like his pre-reveal progression on Bort/Archer so I'd be willing to switch him with Bort in my reads list :P.

13 minutes ago, Archer said:

need the investigator to scan me please

I think this is a good idea

[Bort]

43 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Oooo this is confirmation is it? :0

I'd prefer to think of it as calm acceptance of the inevitable

[Stick.]

53 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I think this is a good idea

If Archer is evil, asking the investigator to scan him is an easy way to waste a cycle of scans as e!Archer can use bendalloy or something. And more importantly, if e!Archer uses Gold, he can find out who the investigator is if they target him with their scan.

27 minutes ago, Bort said:

I'd prefer to think of it as calm acceptance of the inevitable

Hahaha

[Mat]

Just now, _Stick_ said:

If Archer is evil, asking the investigator to scan him is an easy way to waste a cycle of scans as e!Archer can use bendalloy or something. And more importantly, if e!Archer uses Gold, he can find out who the investigator is if they target him with their scan.

Mmm yeah didn't think about the Gold, never mind :P. Bendalloy wouldn't be the worst thing because any scan is a good scan but yeah let's not have the Investigator get golded.

[Biplet]

>be me, reads thread
>sees archer votes on me after saying reading me mildly village
>prepares a vote on archer
>araris: yeah ok bort is elim
 

Anyway, Bort. Definitely worth looking into Archer next cycle bc I'm seeing e/e red over here.

[StrikerEZ]

In case y'all needed a VC 

Bort (13): Biplet, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Steeldancer, JNV, Archer, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Karnatheon, Haelbarde, _Stick_, Bort, Tani
Archer (2): Kasimir, Illwei

You guys have about 9 hours left to decide on votes and actions.

[Bort]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

In case y'all needed a VC 

Bort (13): Biplet, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Steeldancer, JNV, Archer, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Karnatheon, Haelbarde, _Stick_, Bort, Tani
Archer (2): Kasimir, Illwei

You guys have about 9 hours left to decide on votes and actions.

Actually, I was just trying to work out exactly how screwed I am here, so thanks

 

[Stick.]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Mmm yeah didn't think about the Gold, never mind :P. Bendalloy wouldn't be the worst thing because any scan is a good scan but yeah let's not have the Investigator get golded.

Yeah - and they could also use Electrum

Does anybody else find it odd that given: 1) Bort grabbed Copper D1 and 2) Was claimed to have been RB'd D2 (making him a prime target for investigation during N2)

Bort didn't bother to use his Copper N2?? Did he get RB'd a second time or what lmao

edit: whoops double post so sorry how do i fix this sin

edit2: I have now been informed that Copper does nothing against investigators. welp.

[|TJ|]

39 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Does anybody else find it odd that given: 1) Bort grabbed Copper D1 and 2) Was claimed to have been RB'd D2 (making him a prime target for investigation during N2)

Bort didn't bother to use his Copper N2?? Did he get RB'd a second time or what lmao

edit: whoops double post so sorry how do i fix this sin

You copy this, and edit it in your previous post and then just hide this post :P. 

Checking the rules, Investigating is not an allomantic action and Copper "preventing Seeking" likely refers to protection from Bronze Scan. @StrikerEZ?

Edit: I did not see your edit2 :P. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by |TJ|