Mid-Range Game 23: A Desperate Alliance

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Raaman shifted his feet, the metal plates of his armor clinking together. He stood outside Highprince Dalinar's tent, standing guard. There was certainly a need for protection, even more so than before. They were trapped on this Almighty-forsaken rock, with no bridges to leave. The Parshendi could jump out anytime they pleased, but they were stuck. He clenched his fist. He knew there was something wrong about this, and he was right. Someone didn't want peace. After the bridges were sabotaged, the whole delegation was thrown into chaos. He had to break up a scuffle between a few enraged Alethi and one of the Parshendi. Raaman scowled. This whole meeting was going to ashes.

A messenger approached the tent. Raaman stopped him. "What's your business here?" He asked. The messenger fumbled in a satchel before pulling out a roll of parchment.

"Messenge to Highprince Dalinar from the 'Parshendi Delegation'. To be delivered immediately," the messenger stated. Raaman glared at the messenger, staring into his eyes, searching for a shred of deceitful intent. Beads of sweat appeared on the messenger's brow. Finally, Raaman broke eye contact and stepped aside. "You may deliver your message," he said. The messenger nodded, obviously relieved, and disappeared inside the tent. Raaman sighed. Ridiculous.

[DrakeMarshall]

Ehh, not much point in opposing this. If you are this sure that Len is a Voidbringer, I suppose I ought to show support.

If Elenion flips innocent, I rather hope we can all agree to lynch asterion.

But for now:

Asterion, Elenion

 

Also:

5 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

“Brightness Joslin, we have arrived at the Warcamps.”

“Mmm.” Sani acknowledged her steward, not bothering to look up from her readings as the carriage slowed to a stop. She was late, and the peace talks had started without her. She didn’t have any time to waste on the trip to the camps. She had personnel files to review, sleepers to awaken, and windows to sell.

“Where would you like us to set up Brightness?”

“Figure out where Brightness Meza is, and set up near her. I promised Jack I’d keep an eye on her. And then send a message to one of the more trustworthy of the Parshendi. Kyner perhaps. I want to make sure these negotiations go off without a hitch.”

Sani. It's been a while. This brings back memories of the last faction game I was in (and the first SE game I was in, for that matter).

Still, this time I'm actually trying to make peace, whereas last time I was doing my utmost to make war, so there's that.

 

Kyner opened a note from the Alethi. Apparently a new member had arrived at the delegation, and meant to make peace. That was a reassuring sign, at least.

[StrikerEZ]

48 minutes ago, Jondesu said:

Replying to a couple things here, but I’m on mobile and won’t necessarily get a good solid post until later tonight at the earliest.

Since no one else could have really scanned Elenion this past cycle, and therefore wouldn’t be able to refute the claim, Aster actually has an easy time claiming Voidbringer scam results and getting Len lynched before anyone figures it out. If he turns out to be lying, the Alethi are even more in control of the lynch anyways then, and he could be betting on convincing the unaligned Alethi (though as I said, I doubt there are that many unaligned).

Hmmm...I still don't think it works out how you seem to think it does. Even assuming that Len isn't Voidbringer and is lynched, even us Alethi would agree to lynch aster, as it would serve almost no purpose to keep him around if he lied like that (as he would almost certainly be a SoH or a Ghostblood). Keeping him around would just lead to mistrust between the Alethi and Parshendi. Like I've said, I'd be willing to help you guys find the Sons of Honor in exchange for help taking out the Voidbringers. If Len turns out to not be a Voidbringer, I'll help lead the lynch against aster.

[Sparkrunner]

Arbol watched his latest invention, the glider wing, plummet into the chasm. So much for that servant. He wondered whose servant he was. Oh well. He could find another. He walked back. Elenion was trapped against a rock by some angry Alethi in a wagon. Arbol was a great believer in bandwagons and so he jumped on.

_____

len i guess

[Stick.]

Wow heavy bandwagon on Len let me see what's all this 'bout.

Okay, Aster scanned him. Nice. 

7 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Sons of Honour, and their allies: Yitzi, Flash. Asterion, Stick, and StrikerEZ.

I won't confirm nor deny this. :]

Hopping on the wagon on the bandwagon master: len

Sorry for the crappy activity level :[ I'll be more active once I die in L35.

[A Joe in the Bush]

8 hours ago, Drake Marshall said:

Sani. It's been a while. This brings back memories of the last faction game I was in (and the first SE game I was in, for that matter).

Still, this time I'm actually trying to make peace, whereas last time I was doing my utmost to make war, so there's that.

Kyner opened a note from the Alethi. Apparently a new member had arrived at the delegation, and meant to make peace. That was a reassuring sign, at least.

Haha, i actually went and reread that game just last night. Funtimes. it's partially why i'm inclined to go for the unaligned victory this time. Have Sani be a peacemaker in all the games. and uh, that gives me very little to RP off of. do you want to send me a message, or what?

[Elbereth]

Multiquotes incoming! 

From yesterday: 

Quote

Megasif: Also, can we call this a PAFO! from now on.

We already do.  For instance: 

 

Quote

Drake: Second... Even though we have less people, I'm pretty sure Seonid wouldn't have made a game that was badly unbalanced or easy to break. Which means that "lynch all parshendi" is very unlikely to be a tactically sound approach to this game. So I recommend instead that, at this point, you only really lynch a parshendi if you believe the parshendi in question to be a voidbringer.

First, this is a faction game. Those are hard to balance even if you're very good (which Seonid is). Secondly, just because it's not a game that's easy to break doesn't make that not a viable tactic. The two aren't incompatible. It's not a guaranteed way to win, certainly, but that doesn't make it a bad idea. 

@Sart, regarding your plan, you're being contradictory - both saying that other factions couldn't hit Drake because he's well protected and that we're lynching him this turn in order to give us insurance so that we can kill him if he lies. The two don't go together. Either he's protected and we can't kill him, or he's not and we can. 

Quote

HH: 
So far there are two votes on Yitzi, a full day left, and a majority decision to hunt down secret factions. Drake is going scholar.

On one hand, we bandwagon Yitzi.

On the other hand, we wait until a new bandwagon option appears.

....HH. In what world is this mindset a good idea?

(This isn't a game related thing, just unhelpful.) There's a third option here. You could actually make a decision - if you don't like the bandwagon on Yitzi (and you obviously didn't like it enough to vote on him), you could actually pick someone else instead of passively waiting to jump on someone else's bandwagon. If everyone had that mindset, nothing would ever happen. 

The point of this game is that you can't trust anyone and have to rely on your own judgement to decide who seems evil. If you always wait for others to vote, it becomes much harder to do so...

On to C2!

Results of the writeup - it's interesting that Elenion was attacked apart from the lynch. Two possibilities for this: 1) Sons of Honour killed him as a suspected Voidbringer and in order to get information from the lynch (thinking that he would actually die). Which is possible, but then raises the question of why the Ghostbloods didn't attack. (Two likely scenarios are either that they're waiting and don't want to alienate either side yet, or they simply forgot.) 

2) The Ghostbloods hit him. Which is especially interesting, because it was mentioned a couple times in thread that it benefits the Ghostbloods to hit the Alethi more than the Parshendi (because the Parshendi are going to get hit by the lynch and so the Voidbringers will be a lot faster to be wiped out than the Sons of Honour, in theory). And yet they kill a Parshendi? The most interesting explanation for this, I think, is that the Ghostbloods knew he was a Voidbringer, because the Voidbringers have claimed to the Parshendi in their doc already. I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case.  

Interesting theory, in any case. 

On 7/13/2017 at 7:12 PM, asterion137 said:

I scanned Elenion last night and he is a Voidbringer. 

Excellent. Elenion.

On 7/13/2017 at 8:12 PM, Drake Marshall said:

But there's something else that occurs to me:

And I'm going to hold off on voting to kill off Elenion just this yet.

Because... Asterion, why did you supposedly scan Elenion when I had already publically claimed I would be scanning him? If you really were a scanner, that doesn't make any sense. You'd be wasting a scan, be it your scan or mine.

I think you pretty much have to be lying about this.

What? Why does the fact that he could be wasting a scan (which obviously he didn't) correlate to the fact that he has to be lying? That's kind of the least likely explanation... 

17 hours ago, Sami said:

Sorry I haven't been on a lot recently  I've been really busy the last couple of days.

I am super conflicted because it seems a bit bland that Aster would just go "Yup he's a Voidbringer". How do we know that he's trustworthy?

This has been answered, but briefly - we don't. But if he's wrong, we'll know soon, and he'll die in turn. 

19 hours ago, Elenion said:

(Keeping my post short as it has not been the best of nights for me. I will return when I'm feeling more amiable, probably tomorrow. I'm going to go eat something to take my mind off of this.)

I already called foul on last lynch, with Orlok purposely misrepresenting the strength of his faction in terms of kills by omitting the Shardblade (and also extra lives, but I didn't catch that at the time). The lynch then happens on me anyway, and a rogue Shardbearer then rubs salt in the wound, then Asterion lies about my alignment. I'm surprised so many people have fallen for it: do you really think that Asterion would have scanned the guy slated to be lynched and also scanned by Drake? It doesn't make logical sense. What probably happened is Aster is a Son of Honor trying to clean up the mess when Operation Murder Len failed due to a certain Parshendi protecting me after I verifiably asked for protection in our doc. Aster.

It makes more sense that Asterion scanned the person set to be lynched, not less. That way if you weren't a Voidbringer, we wouldn't have to waste another lynch on you in order to get actual information, and if you were... well, this happened. 

14 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

You Colonial dogs don't know how to properly spell.

Joe, might I point out that neither you nor Yitzi is from the original 13 colonies, or England? Just saying.  

13 hours ago, Megasif said:

Elenion seems likely to be lynch today so far. There's been some analysis on possible secret faction members and the different ways the game could go. The Alethi believe aster and are willing to lynch Elenion. Elenion has denied the accusation. Drake's not fully sure about aster and although he voted for Elenion, he has now changed to Aster. Frozen is suing for peace and has voted a suspected Voidbringer. Most Parshendi not active yet. Let's see what happens.

What a lovely summary. Mind giving us your thoughts about how things have gone rather than just summarising, @Megasif?

9 hours ago, Daniyah said:

I too can confirm that Len had indeed asked for protection and had received it.

I'm somewhat curious why the Parshendi did so? I would think it would be in each Parshendi's interest to protect themselves, not others of whom they are not certain of their true alignment. Case in point, Len being a Voidbringer. Which implies to me that either the Voidbringers have in fact claimed, or the Parshendi that protected him was also a Voidbringer. (Or just didn't think things through. That's definitely also possible.)

8 hours ago, Jondesu said:

Since no one else could have really scanned Elenion this past cycle, and therefore wouldn’t be able to refute the claim, Aster actually has an easy time claiming Voidbringer scam results and getting Len lynched before anyone figures it out. If he turns out to be lying, the Alethi are even more in control of the lynch anyways then, and he could be betting on convincing the unaligned Alethi (though as I said, I doubt there are that many unaligned).

I disagree. As someone else pointed out, you're assuming that we won't kill Asterion if he's lying. Which we almost certainly will, because if he's lying he's not useful and likely to be of a secret faction. 

That's all for now! Think that's enough?  

[DrakeMarshall]

Well seeing as scanning Elenion has been preempted, I guess I'll have to find another scan target.

I hope none of you fault me particularly if I choose an Alethi to scan this time, seeing as I had a Parshendi slated for scanning last time.

I'll tell you who I decided and what the results were at the beginning of next cycle I think.

[Elbereth]

I'd suggest, Drake, that you either tell the Parshendi or have an Alethi PM you in order to have accountability about who you're scanning. (Probably not an issue, but accountability is nice.)

[Elenion]

@Elbereth  I was protected because the Alethi have us by the throat with the lynch as it is, without us losing a Parshendi voter. And you're also basing my analysis off of my guilt, making it flawed because I'm not guilty. I smelled a double-tap (and even announced that in thread), asked for protection to keep me alive and protect our voting interests, I got it, and the double-tap happened as I predicted.

Also, there's a problem in your Voidbringer claiming to the Parshendi theory, in that it didn't happen. I probably would have stayed silent had that happened, because I really doubt the Alethi-Parsh alliance has much of a chance of sticking around, but Drake and probably others would have promptly put the claimers' names directly into the thread.

[Elbereth]

Regardless, it's the same amount of lives lost. The Alethi have such a majority that I would think that losing one would be less valuable than being certain that the protection's being used on an actual teammate, butI suppose I can see why that wouldn't be the case. 

...That's not a problem with the theory? It's a theory for a reason. It can be proven wrong, but if it is that's not a problem. It's just a false theory. (Sorry. Semantics.)

Clarify the 'would have stayed silent'? Silent in what context - not claiming to the Parshendi, not defending yourself in thread, not asking for protection? 

[Elenion]

Staying silent -- I'm saying that if the Voidbringers had claimed in the Parshendi doc, I probably wouldn't have announced that fact to the thread. I would have stayed silent, because of my doubts about the Alethi-Parsh alliance being workable. But Drake and those more optimistic about the alliance would likely have put the claimers' names into the thread to get the Voidbringers lynched, leaving only the Sons and the Ghostbloods. Therefore, even if you believe that I personally am a Voidbringer, you can know that the Voidbringers have not claimed in the doc. @Elbereth

[Elbereth]

Mmm. That's possible, assuming I believe the peace treaty Parshendi that they're actually genuine. Which is not necessarily the case - it certainly wasn't with most of Venture in LG23, for instance (also a faction game with a hidden faction among the public ones, which most people professed to be trying to find and almost no one actually was). And that assumes that the Parshendi would do that if the Voidbringers just claimed. 

Which would be just really sad. It'd entirely remove all of the Voidbringers' chances of success, when on the other hand the Parshendi and Voidbringers are far more likely to be working together. That might help the Alethi-Parshendi alliance, but it'd practically doom the rest of the Parshendi. I don't think any of them would actually countenance that. 

So given your word, I can put a lower likelihood that the Voidbringers have claimed, perhaps, but I most certainly cannot actually rule it out. 

Also, slightly interesting that you haven't responded to what I said in response to you. Not an entirely unexpected reaction, but does affirm to me that you're a Voidbringer. 

[Elenion]

Just now, Elbereth said:

Also, slightly interesting that you haven't responded to what I said in response to you. Not an entirely unexpected reaction, but does affirm to me that you're a Voidbringer

Which point exactly is that? You made a bunch of points either to me personally and in reference to me.

[Elbereth]

In response to your quote in my long post, that is. Sorry if that wasn't clear. 

[Elenion]

Okay, so this one?

Quote

It makes more sense that Asterion scanned the person set to be lynched, not less. That way if you weren't a Voidbringer, we wouldn't have to waste another lynch on you in order to get actual information, and if you were... well, this happened. 

I didn't answer that one because I know that Asterion didn't scan me, because if he had he wouldn't have wanted to lie and kill himself, so therefore I know that that wasn't going through Asterion's mind.

[Elbereth]

If he didn't scan you, why did he say he had? Honestly, if he's lying it doesn't matter whether he scanned you or not. The result (his death) is the same for him either way. 

[Elenion]

Just now, Elbereth said:

(Len in bold)

If he didn't scan you, why did he say he had? A 1 for 1 trade is beneficial for the Alethi if you view this game as Alethi vs Parshendi, and probably for the Sons of Honor were I actually a Voidbringer. Plus the potential for him to have been right even without scanning me.

Honestly, if he's lying it doesn't matter whether he scanned you or not. The result (his death) is the same for him either way. Actually not, because had he not scanned me there was the potential for a bonanza. See below.

We know (well, I know), that Aster is lying about my alignment, so one of two things happened:

1. Aster scanned me, knows I'm vanilla Parsh, and lied anyway in order to get me lynched.

2. Aster scanned someone else (let's say Drake or Alv), and lied about my alignment to clean me up with the lynch and because he believed I was likely a Voidbringer.

(and I guess, 3, Aster isn't even a scanner, but that's actually very similar to number 2)

If Aster went with option one, he would have known that what he was doing was suicide, a 1 for 1 trade that benefits the Alethi and therefore is a good early-game move.

If Aster went with option two, he wouldn't know my true alignment, and so he was making a gamble. If he was wrong, he would die and create a 1 for 1 trade like before. But if by luck I had actually been a Voidbringer, he would be widely-trusted, alive, and with an extra turn's worth of scan results.

Now if I was Aster, and I had contemplated doing this before putting in my action, I would have considered the two options, and I would have taken option 2 because of the potential for a great victory and turning point. We're assuming that he had known or suspected beforehand--by gut read, logic, or Ghostblood contacts--that I would survive the lynch and that he was planning today's events in advance, but given that assumption he would have had no reason to choose option 1 and actually scan me.

[Seonid]

Public Service Announcement!

I will be busy tonight around rollover time, and so the cycle will end at the regularly scheduled time. However, the new cycle will not start until several hours later. My apologies for any inconveniences.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay I finally caught up on the thread when I couldn't sleep last night *sigh. I was still too out of it to post though hehe. I don't see any reason why Asterion would actually lie about a scan. If Len flips non-voidbringer Aster is basically dead. So, I'm keeping my vote on Len. Not much else to add to the thread rn.

Edited July 15, 2017 by BrightnessRadiant

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Elenion: Asterion <1>(A), Orlok <1>(A), Yitzi <1>(A), Brightness <1>(A), Striker <1>(A), Drake <1>(P), Crimsn <1>(A), Megasif <1>(A), Flash <1>(A), Straw <1>(A), Sami <1>(A), Frozen Mint <1>(P), Jondesu <1>(P), Drake <3>(P), Roadwalker <1>(P), Elbereth <1>A): 15

Asterion: Drake <2>(P), Elenion <1>(P): 1

Alethi voters: 11 of 15
Parshendi voters: 4 of 8

@Daniyah @cloudjumper, @Alvron, your own thoughts? All of you have been active this cycle, according to you profiles.

[Stick.]

I voted Len too

[Sparkrunner]

1 hour ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

I don't see any reason why Asterion would actually lie about a scan.

Um... 1 for 1 trade? If he is lying, then we lynch him, so the Alethi lose one life. We lose three lives, which, us not having the numerical advantage, is ba sically more than we can afford. Makes perfect sense for a SoH to do.

Edited July 15, 2017 by Roadwalker

[Orlok Tsubodai]

8 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Um... 1 for 1 trade? If he is lying, then we lynch him, so the Alethi lose one life. We lose three lives, which, us not having the numerical advantage, is ba sically more than we can afford. Makes perfect sense for a SoH to do.

We would lose not just a life, but the goodwill of the Parshendi. 

[cloudjumper]

I will vote Len for likely voidbringing. Don't think fake-claiming invest is a very Elim thing to do, so I believe Aster.

Edited July 15, 2017 by cloudjumper