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Sorry I haven't been on a lot recently :unsure: I've been really busy the last couple of days.

I am super conflicted because it seems a bit bland that Aster would just go "Yup he's a Voidbringer". How do we know that he's trustworthy?

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I understand why the Parshendi are worried about lynching one of their own, because that does not help with their win condition if Elenion actually isn't a Voidbringer. But I don't get why everyone is so hung up about it. Asterion decided to take it into his own hand so to scan Elenion, especially considering that Drake couldn't have scanned him first cycle. As an Alethi wishing to survive, that makes perfect sense-root out the Voidbringers as fast as possible before they can kill you. And I don't get why everyone suspects him of being in a secret faction. It'd be suicide to make a false claim like this. We'd lynch Elenion, assuming another Warform doesn't protect him (I think that works, but I might be a bit iffy on that), and find out whether or not he was actually a Voidbringer. If he is actually a Voidbringer, then asterion's claim was correct (though he could still be a SoH or Ghostblood); if he isn't, then asterion's claim is false, which would mean that he is definitely a SoH (EDIT: I realized this could also make him a Ghostblood), which would lead to us lynching him right away in order to make goodwill with the Parshendi. 

That's why I'm inclined to believe aster's claim. There's no way a SoH or Ghostblood would try and publicly claim someone else's role like that if they were lying. Even if they lynch the one non-Voidbringer Parshendi, they would definitely be lynched the next cycle. It's suicide. 

So, I've made up my mind. I'm 100% sure that Elenion is a Voidbringer, and I'm sticking with my gut. There's nothing that really proves to me that asterion's claim is false, and I think my line of reasoning proves why it can't be false.

Edited by StrikerEZ
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19 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I understand why the Parshendi are worried about lynching one of their own, because that does not help with their win condition if Elenion actually isn't a Voidbringer. But I don't get why everyone is so hung up about it. Asterion decided to take it into his own hand so to scan Elenion, especially considering that Drake couldn't have scanned him first cycle. As an Alethi wishing to survive, that makes perfect sense-root out the Voidbringers as fast as possible before they can kill you. And I don't get why everyone suspects him of being in a secret faction. It'd be suicide to make a false claim like this. We'd lynch Elenion, assuming another Warform doesn't protect him (I think that works, but I might be a bit iffy on that), and find out whether or not he was actually a Voidbringer. If he is actually a Voidbringer, then asterion's claim was correct (though he could still be a SoH or Ghostblood); if he isn't, then asterion's claim is false, which would mean that he is definitely a SoH (EDIT: I realized this could also make him a Ghostblood), which would lead to us lynching him right away in order to make goodwill with the Parshendi. 

That's why I'm inclined to believe aster's claim. There's no way a SoH or Ghostblood would try and publicly claim someone else's role like that if they were lying. Even if they lynch the one non-Voidbringer Parshendi, they would definitely be lynched the next cycle. It's suicide. 

So, I've made up my mind. I'm 100% sure that Elenion is a Voidbringer, and I'm sticking with my gut. There's nothing that really proves to me that asterion's claim is false, and I think my line of reasoning proves why it can't be false.

Logic rules. elenion . I was considering the various opinions, and this seems like the best defense of lynching elenion. 

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So Aster claims to have scanned Elenion, and declares him a Voidbringer. However, besides his claim, he has no one to support it. The problem here was timing, because Drake had just only switched to Scholarform, and could not scan Len himself to have a second verification. It comes down to how much we trust Aster and how much we want to listen to Len. Yet again, it seems like it is Parshendi v. Alethi in the lynch.

Has anyone contacted Asterion D1 and learned of his plan who can tell us? The more information, the better.

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“Brightness Joslin, we have arrived at the Warcamps.”

“Mmm.” Sani acknowledged her steward, not bothering to look up from her readings as the carriage slowed to a stop. She was late, and the peace talks had started without her. She didn’t have any time to waste on the trip to the camps. She had personnel files to review, sleepers to awaken, and windows to sell.

“Where would you like us to set up Brightness?”

“Figure out where Brightness Meza is, and set up near her. I promised Jack I’d keep an eye on her. And then send a message to one of the more trustworthy of the Parshendi. Kyner perhaps. I want to make sure these negotiations go off without a hitch.”


Apologies for missing last cycle. It won’t be a habit this game. @Crimsn-Wolf and @Drake Marshall, and @Everyone else feel free to receive a message from Sani if you want to RP.

I have done a thorough analysis of the first cycle though, so here are my reads:

Sons of Honour, and their allies: Yitzi, Flash. Asterion, Stick, and StrikerEZ.

Ghostbloods: Elenion, Sart, Yitzi, Megasif, Orlok

@Seonid can a player be a Ghostblood and a Voidbringer/Son?

I have not decided if I am pursing an Alethi victory or a Unaligned victory.

Edit: I would prefer a parshendi confirm Elenion's alignment before we lynch him.

Edited by A Joe in the Bush
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Okay, I was curious to see how many votes Elenion had received and made a vote tally, with history. (Even though the cycle basically just started lol)

Elenion(9): asterion137(A), OrlokTsubodai(A), Yitzi2(A), BrightnessRadiant(A), StrikerEZ(A), Drake Marshall(P), Crimsn-Wolf(A), Megasif(A), The Flash, Straw(A)

asterion137(1): Drake Marshall(P)
 
Okay, I definitely understand why Drake thinks it is odd that asterion decided to scan Elenion even though he claimed he was gonna scan Elenion. But...there's no way Drake could've scanned him until this cycle, and we would've been left wondering this cycle whether Elenion was Voidbringer or not. Plus, Drake could've just got his role, not his faction. At first, I thought that wouldn't really help, but then I realized Elenion could've changed into a Voidbringer-only role, so that would basically give away his faction as well. Either way, as an Alethi, it makes perfect sense to try and find the Voidbringers as fast as possible to try and get rid of them to save your own win condition. It also would make sense, as an unaligned Parshendi, to try and help get that Voidbringer lynched/killed to make peace (the whole point of this game ;)) with the Alethi. 
 
Drake's initial vote and vote change feels like a Voidbringer teammate first attempting bussing their teammate, then trying to throw some suspicion on the person who accused their teammate to see if it would stick. I don't think that scenario is as likely as the scenario where he was trying to help make peace by removing a possible Voidbringer, then worrying about whether asterion is a SoH or not. I definitely see the reasoning behind it. I just don't think he realized how stupid it'd be to do what asterion did as a SoH or Ghostblood and be lying about it. 
 
EDIT: I decided to go back and edit in whether voters were Alethi or Parshendi.
 
I'm not quite sure why Drake has been the only Parshendi to vote Elenion. I do get that they could be suspicious to vote on one of their own (which makes it funny to me that Drake, who is really suspicious whether Elenion truly is a Voidbringer, is the only Parshendi that's voted on him lol), but I just don't see how it could be a SoH/Ghostblood framing a Parshendi. I may be biased towards the Alethi, but if I were Parshendi, I'd vote on Elenion too. It'd form good relations with the Alethi, especially if Elenion truly is a Voidbringer. Even if he isn't, it'd show the Alethi that the Parshendi are willing to help them. Of course, they'd have every right to be wary next time a lynch on a Voidbringer is claimed.
Edited by StrikerEZ
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16 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

“Brightness Joslin, we have arrived at the Warcamps.”

“Mmm.” Sani acknowledged her steward, not bothering to look up from her readings as the carriage slowed to a stop. She was late, and the peace talks had started without her. She didn’t have any time to waste on the trip to the camps. She had personnel files to review, sleepers to awaken, and windows to sell.

“Where would you like us to set up Brightness?”

“Figure out where Brightness Meza is, and set up near her. I promised Jack I’d keep an eye on her. And then send a message to one of the more trustworthy of the Parshendi. Kyner perhaps. I want to make sure these negotiations go off without a hitch.”


Apologies for missing last cycle. It won’t be a habit this game. @Crimsn-Wolf and @Drake Marshall, and @Everyone else feel free to receive a message from Sani if you want to RP.

I have done a thorough analysis of the first cycle though, so here are my reads:

Sons of Honour, and their allies: Yitzi, Flash. Asterion, Stick, and StrikerEZ.

Ghostbloods: Elenion, Sart, Yitzi, Megasif, Orlok

@Seonid can a player be a Ghostblood and a Voidbringer/Son?

I have not decided if I am pursing an Alethi victory or a Unaligned victory.

Edit: I would prefer a parshendi confirm Elenion's alignment before we lynch him.

Ok, I understand why you listed me under "Sons of Honour, and their allies" (though it's spelled "Honor"), but why do you suspect me of being a Ghostblood?

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Just now, Yitzi2 said:

Ok, I understand why you listed me under "Sons of Honour, and their allies" (though it's spelled "Honor"), but why do you suspect me of being a Ghostblood?

You Colonial dogs don't know how to properly spell.

Your insistence on focusing on Alethi vs. Parshendi feels like something a Ghostblood would want to encourage, to keep attention off them. It's more likely you're a Son though.

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Altea looks up as a person approaches her, her eyes narrowing in suspicion and caution. While this was supposed to be some sort of 'peace' mission, there had already been signs of saboteurs, so she was especially on-edge. She waits silently for the person to speak, and is surprised when a letter is handed to her. Glancing at the person, she accepts the letter carefully and begins to unfold it, reading the contents within. 

"Brightness Altea Meza,
Brightness Sani Joslin would like the pleasure of your company for lunch today, to discuss a mutual friend by 
the name of Jack Tormander. If you are inclined to learn more of the current situation, please come dine with 
her at her shop. The bearer of this note can direct you there.
Thank you for your time."

Altea looks back at the note-bringer with a slightly raised brow, still suspicious. She folds the letter back up neatly and gestures to the bringer of the note to lead the way, remaining silent as she waited.

@A Joe in the Bush, that is the best I have atm, I apologize, dearest.

I also won't be super active for the next 10 hours or so, because I am going to be heading to work in about an hour and won't be getting home until at least twelve hours. I am hoping to hop on for a bit during my lunch break, but that may not be able to happen.

As for what @StrikerEZ said, I think we should follow up on the Drake Marshall angle if Len turns out to be a Voidbringer, after all.

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@Crimsn-Wolf Well...I'm not too entirely suspicious of Drake. I suggested it because it seemed like a plausible idea, but not because I believed that it was true. I'm definitely not suspicious of him. Though, it could be useful for him to be scanned. I can't remember if there are any Parshendi forms that would make that dangerous. I think the only ones that would be dangerous for an artifabrian are Voidbringer forms. (EDIT: For clarification, for some reason I thought there were Parshendi forms that made it so where if someone used an ability on that Parshendi, they would die. I went back and looked at the roles and realized this isn't really the case, except for Decayform kind of, but didn't mention it in my post lol)

So, I'm thinking that we have asterion agree to scan Drake this cycle. It'd let us know if he actually changed into Scholarform and would give us his faction (if he has one). If asterion publicly claims that he's gonna scan Drake, but next cycle says that his action failed, that would mean Drake is a Voidbringer who either changed into Smoke or Decayform. Of course, this opens up the possibility of asterion and Drake both being Ghostblood and making Drake seem less suspicious by saying that Drake did indeed transition to Scholarform when, in this scenario, he really didn't. 

Of course, that all seems really unlikely and a bit tinfoil-y to me, though I do think it's a good idea to have asterion scan him, just in case we get lucky and catch another Voidbringer. Assuming Elenion is one as well. 

Edited by StrikerEZ
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Alright so I can't be on here long, but I'm going to cast a vote on Elenion. I do think that he's a Voidbringer, and I don't want this game to become an Alethi vs. Parshendi game, because I don't think that gives the Parshendi a better chance of winning. I highly doubt that asterion is lying. That would almost amount to him sacrificing himself to get Len lynched.

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6 minutes ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

You Colonial dogs don't know how to properly spell.

Your insistence on focusing on Alethi vs. Parshendi feels like something a Ghostblood would want to encourage, to keep attention off them.

Just the opposite.  An Alethi vs. Parshendi game is one that the Ghostbloods probably wouldn't want, since it greatly increases the chance of a different secret faction getting victory and thus making them lose even without them all being killed.  (The Ghostbloods are the only group that can lose without losing all their members, by the Parshendi all being knocked out with at least one Son of Honor left, or the Alethi all being knocked out with at least one Voidbringer left.)  It does mean a lower priority on lynching Ghostbloods, but the fact that they'd be in danger of losing even if none of them are found would make that largely irrelevant.

By the way, I noticed something interesting: Jondesu (near the bottom of page 10) seemed to think it likely that most players belong to a secret faction.  Now, this would be a somewhat unusual situation (usually secret factions are a fairly small minority at the beginning of the game), so why would he think that?  The first possibility to come to mind was that he's a Voidbringer, and they have 4 members (maybe 3), so by extrapolating from Parshendi-to-Voidbringer ratios, he concluded that a high proportion of people in secret factions was likely.

The second possibility was that he's a Ghostblood, and was extrapolating from their membership (particularly if they have 2 Parshendi members; if they were only 1 Parshendi and 3 Alethi, the likely implication would be 4-5 Sons of Honor and 2 Voidbringers, making only half or less members belonging to secret factions, while them being 1 Parshendi and 4 Alethi would be a fairly sizable Mafia group even for a non-faction game, and highly unlikely for this one (though possible due to seeking factions calling for larger secret groups); it would also be a fairly unusual imbalance.)

So while I don't think Jondesu is quite as likely to belong to a secret faction as Elenion was last cycle, he still seems fairly suspicious, plus if he is a member of a secret faction then lynching him will give us valuable information regarding the size (and composition, for Ghostbloods) of his faction.

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Elenion seems likely to be lynch today so far. There's been some analysis on possible secret faction members and the different ways the game could go. The Alethi believe aster and are willing to lynch Elenion. Elenion has denied the accusation. Drake's not fully sure about aster and although he voted for Elenion, he has now changed to Aster. Frozen is suing for peace and has voted a suspected Voidbringer. Most Parshendi not active yet. Let's see what happens.

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Quote

I understand why the Parshendi are worried about lynching one of their own, because that does not help with their win condition if Elenion actually isn't a Voidbringer. But I don't get why everyone is so hung up about it. Asterion decided to take it into his own hand so to scan Elenion, especially considering that Drake couldn't have scanned him first cycle. As an Alethi wishing to survive, that makes perfect sense-root out the Voidbringers as fast as possible before they can kill you. And I don't get why everyone suspects him of being in a secret faction. It'd be suicide to make a false claim like this.

One thing: Voidbringers do not count for the unaligned parshendi win. Since there are so many alethi, we are all paranoid that you will miss the voidbringers and kill all the unaligned.

Two thing: WHADDABOUTUS? Okay so I am pretty strung up this morning but what about us? What about sons of honor? You are the people with people to spare. Speaking of people to spare, that is the point that defends Elenion. Sure aster could lie about this. You guys have numbers Aster might not be a scanner after all. This is my (probably wrong) theory that aster!scanner who accuses Elenion, even if Len might be innocent, to get us to waste several of our warform protections and get rid of a parshendi. Scenario: aster lies, len dies, we lynch aster. You still have a huge numerical advantage, we have just wasted some warforms

EDIT: Yeah he asked for protection and (was) protected.

Edited by Roadwalker
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4 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

One thing: Voidbringers do not count for the unaligned parshendi win. Since there are so many alethi, we are all paranoid that you will miss the voidbringers and kill all the unaligned.

Two thing: WHADDABOUTUS? Okay so I am pretty strung up this morning but what about us? What about sons of honor? You are the people with people to spare. Speaking of people to spare, that is the point that defends Elenion. Sure aster could lie about this. You guys have numbers Aster might not be a scanner after all. This is my (probably wrong) theory that aster!scanner who accuses Elenion, even if Len might be innocent, to get us to waste several of our warform protections and get rid of a parshendi. Scenario: aster lies, len dies, we lynch aster. You still have a huge numerical advantage, we have just wasted some warforms

EDIT: Yeah he asked for protection and (was) protected.

To your first point: that actually makes sense. Though, that's basically what I said either later in that post or one of my later ones. And...yeah, I'd probably be worried about that as well if I were Parshendi. I think that's why it's imperative that we work together to root out the Voidbringers.

To your second point: I do agree that you're right about the Sons of Honor. They should be taken out to protect you as well. Personally, I'm gonna be more worried about the Alethi (obviously), but I do want this to be a fun game and we should try for peace between all of the unaligned members. The problem is that we don't know who the faction members are. I'm willing to take out Elenion if there's even the slightest chance that he's a Voidbringer (though I think it's highly likely he is one). I'd also be willing to help determine whether Yitzi is a SoH or not, in a sign of good faith with the Parshendi next cycle. I'm just worried about possibly lynching him because, while he seems very suspicious, especially with his first few posts, there's no real hard evidence against him (unlike with asterion's claim on Elenion). 

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1 hour ago, Roadwalker said:

One thing: Voidbringers do not count for the unaligned parshendi win. Since there are so many alethi, we are all paranoid that you will miss the voidbringers and kill all the unaligned.

Two thing: WHADDABOUTUS? Okay so I am pretty strung up this morning but what about us? What about sons of honor? You are the people with people to spare. Speaking of people to spare, that is the point that defends Elenion. Sure aster could lie about this. You guys have numbers Aster might not be a scanner after all. This is my (probably wrong) theory that aster!scanner who accuses Elenion, even if Len might be innocent, to get us to waste several of our warform protections and get rid of a parshendi. Scenario: aster lies, len dies, we lynch aster. You still have a huge numerical advantage, we have just wasted some warforms

EDIT: Yeah he asked for protection and (was) protected.

Roadwalker, I think you also overestimate the degree of communication we have as a faction. Unlike you, we don't have a doc. Such a gambit might be possible now, but is unlikely, unless it's happened unilaterally. Later in the game, it's more feasible, as our number of PMs will increase.

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3 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

By the way, can any Parshendi verify whether Elenion did ask for protection, and whether he received it?  The case against him is strong either way, but it's much stronger if nobody protected him.

It happened in the Parsh doc, so any Parshendi that comes around can easily verify that right after I called Orlok out for underestimating his faction numbers, I asked for a protector and received a yes a few minutes later.

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3 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

By the way, can any Parshendi verify whether Elenion did ask for protection, and whether he received it?  The case against him is strong either way, but it's much stronger if nobody protected him.

I too can confirm that Len had indeed asked for protection and had received it.

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Replying to a couple things here, but I’m on mobile and won’t necessarily get a good solid post until later tonight at the earliest.

5 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:
Okay, I definitely understand why Drake thinks it is odd that asterion decided to scan Elenion even though he claimed he was gonna scan Elenion. But...there's no way Drake could've scanned him until this cycle, and we would've been left wondering this cycle whether Elenion was Voidbringer or not. Plus, Drake could've just got his role, not his faction. At first, I thought that wouldn't really help, but then I realized Elenion could've changed into a Voidbringer-only role, so that would basically give away his faction as well. Either way, as an Alethi, it makes perfect sense to try and find the Voidbringers as fast as possible to try and get rid of them to save your own win condition. It also would make sense, as an unaligned Parshendi, to try and help get that Voidbringer lynched/killed to make peace (the whole point of this game ;)) with the Alethi. 
 
Drake's initial vote and vote change feels like a Voidbringer teammate first attempting bussing their teammate, then trying to throw some suspicion on the person who accused their teammate to see if it would stick. I don't think that scenario is as likely as the scenario where he was trying to help make peace by removing a possible Voidbringer, then worrying about whether asterion is a SoH or not. I definitely see the reasoning behind it. I just don't think he realized how stupid it'd be to do what asterion did as a SoH or Ghostblood and be lying about it. 
 
EDIT: I decided to go back and edit in whether voters were Alethi or Parshendi.
 
I'm not quite sure why Drake has been the only Parshendi to vote Elenion. I do get that they could be suspicious to vote on one of their own (which makes it funny to me that Drake, who is really suspicious whether Elenion truly is a Voidbringer, is the only Parshendi that's voted on him lol), but I just don't see how it could be a SoH/Ghostblood framing a Parshendi. I may be biased towards the Alethi, but if I were Parshendi, I'd vote on Elenion too. It'd form good relations with the Alethi, especially if Elenion truly is a Voidbringer. Even if he isn't, it'd show the Alethi that the Parshendi are willing to help them. Of course, they'd have every right to be wary next time a lynch on a Voidbringer is claimed.

Since no one else could have really scanned Elenion this past cycle, and therefore wouldn’t be able to refute the claim, Aster actually has an easy time claiming Voidbringer scam results and getting Len lynched before anyone figures it out. If he turns out to be lying, the Alethi are even more in control of the lynch anyways then, and he could be betting on convincing the unaligned Alethi (though as I said, I doubt there are that many unaligned).

5 hours ago, Yitzi2 said:

By the way, I noticed something interesting: Jondesu (near the bottom of page 10) seemed to think it likely that most players belong to a secret faction.  Now, this would be a somewhat unusual situation (usually secret factions are a fairly small minority at the beginning of the game), so why would he think that?  The first possibility to come to mind was that he's a Voidbringer, and they have 4 members (maybe 3), so by extrapolating from Parshendi-to-Voidbringer ratios, he concluded that a high proportion of people in secret factions was likely.

The second possibility was that he's a Ghostblood, and was extrapolating from their membership (particularly if they have 2 Parshendi members; if they were only 1 Parshendi and 3 Alethi, the likely implication would be 4-5 Sons of Honor and 2 Voidbringers, making only half or less members belonging to secret factions, while them being 1 Parshendi and 4 Alethi would be a fairly sizable Mafia group even for a non-faction game, and highly unlikely for this one (though possible due to seeking factions calling for larger secret groups); it would also be a fairly unusual imbalance.)

So while I don't think Jondesu is quite as likely to belong to a secret faction as Elenion was last cycle, he still seems fairly suspicious, plus if he is a member of a secret faction then lynching him will give us valuable information regarding the size (and composition, for Ghostbloods) of his faction.

Just simple math and an educated guess. I would expect any of the factions to have 3-4 members at minimum, since otherwise they’d be hard-pressed to even have a chance of completing their win con, and even with 23 players, it seems likely that there are 3-4 Voidbringers plus at least one Ghostblood among the Parshendi (which is half or more of them at that point), and extrapolating out, I didn’t think it was unlikely to have significantly more players in a faction than unaligned. (Not any one particular faction, but total between the three secret factions.)

Edited by Jondesu
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1 minute ago, Jondesu said:

Just simple math and an educated guess. I would expect any of the factions to have 3-4 members at minimum, since otherwise they’d be hard-pressed to even have a chance of completing their win con, and even with 23 players, it seems likely that there are 3-4 Voidbringers plus at least one Ghostblood among the Parshendi (which is half or more of them at that point), and extrapolating out, I didn’t think it was unlikely to have significantly more players in a faction than unaligned. (Not any one particular faction, but total between the three secret factions.)

3-4 Voidbringers out of 8 Parshendi total?  Not what I'd expect, but ok.

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7 minutes ago, Yitzi2 said:

3-4 Voidbringers out of 8 Parshendi total?  Not what I'd expect, but ok.

At least 3 minimum is almost a given in my mind, just for balance’s sake against the Sons of Honor and Ghostbloods, since I highly doubt they would only have 2 members. Keeping all 3 factions about the same size makes sense, with more Alethi Ghostbloods than Parshendi Ghostbloods to make sure there are still a few unaligned Parshendi. It’s just my guess, but it seemed reasonable to me and is likely enough I’ll assume it’s probably true unless I find evidence otherwise.

Also, since I just got back to the Parshendi doc and read through that, I am going to go ahead and vote for Elenion. I think it’s in our best interests to work together, Alethi, so while I’m reluctant to take Aster’s scan claim at face value, I do think it’ll be good for the game overall to cooperate with this lynch. I do ask that the Alethi players plan on lynching an Alethi target next cycle to make sure we don’t just hand the game to the Sons of Honor.

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