Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Mat he/him]

12 minutes ago, Condensation said:

Not sure how to feel about that fact that all y'all seem to be leaving me off of your reads list.

Hey I marked you down as a solid Mild Elim  

Though activity generally equals a place on a reads list.

[Condensation she/her]

8 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey I marked you down as a solid Mild Elim  

Though activity generally equals a place on a reads list.

That's true. I haven't been very active.

Except in PMs.

[Illwei]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

but perhaps the type of chaotic I needed.

Not the type of chaotic I needed (:

and this isn't...tinfoily? really? this is just you in a tunnel. Tinfoil would be me trying to lead a charge against Quinn rn for claiming Forbiddance.

I've been blatantly Suspicious by the textbook definition in ways- you coming after me for that isn't tinfoiling.

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Maybe. That's not really provable either way.

Where's your chalk? oh, it was "stolen" ? man, that's not believable smh. If i was an Elim do you think I'd come out and be like "this is a susupicious action" after constantly saying that I was taking that action? do you think that if I was an Elim I would say I actually didn't take that action which seems to be half of your reasoning here in the first place?

5 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Well, I reacted, and you did absolutely nothing with it during the night

What would you want me to do with it? I noted it? not everything I do has to make sense to you for me to do it, that's not on my checklist that I check before...doing anything. right now that checklist has one box, and right next to that box it says "do I really wanna say this?" and like, i definitely have ignored that checklist more than once. Yeah it's my job to try and get yall to understand what I'm doing, but it's your job to try and understand as well :P. not for me to explain. and explain. and explain. while you're stuck in a tunnel so dark you can't see my explanations.

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

... this is something I see people doing, but I don't really get at all. Why? Why are you and people in general scared to talk about suspicions during the night?

I'm not scared, I just didn't wanna address it then. I don't report to you :P.

9 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

He's suspicious of you, you're suspicious of him,

I'm. not really suspicious of him? no more than I'm suspicious of you? I was responding to his arguments. Me defending myself against Archer != Me thinking Archer is suspicious for having his suspicions. I'm arguing with you as well, right now. I'm not really suspicious of you.

This is you confbiasing your read on me with something that is...completely. NAI. for. me.

Archer challenged people, I vote him. that's how I do.

14 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Take that part out, and the contradiction is obvious

I find this sentence completely irrelevant. If i take out parts of what you say, I could frame you to look suspicious. I gave the reasoning, and you don't get to just ignore it because I didn't respond to you right away.

15 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

So I'm not sure if I would take either at their word if they now came and said "oh yeah Illwei said that she had reasons for going for Vigor a while ago"

Has the fact that they haven't said anything mean anything to you? I haven't talked to Archer much but every time I talk to striker he basically stonewalls me with "I'll look at that, depending, after your flip", usually with an added "if you actually flip vil".
I'm dead to him already, and he doesn't really care what I've said, and he only might care after I'm dead. I don't think you're gonna see him coming out being like
"oh yeah Illwei is actually being truthful and whatnot" because I don't think he cares at this point. He just wants me dead.

And this is basically you doing the same thing. you've set up a lose/lose situation (as in I lose either way) where if someone comes out and is like "no yeah she did" you don't trust them, and if no one does, you don't trust me. I can't argue against someone who won't listen.

I also have no clue how you see striker/me as E/E

 

[Archer he/him]

Looking at our PM, it appears that yes, Illwei did mention wanting to take the Book of Vigor on Friday (D1) and that they hadn't told Striker about it. I apologize for having forgotten about that. It came up when they voted Connie. I said why you do this. They said because they mentioned something that someone had told them that I don't think that person would have told them if they weren't e/e. I guessed it was Striker telling Connie about their book choice. They said no, although I'm going for Vigor. I wasn't going for books, so I promptly forgot that piece of information.

Also, Illwei, I'm disappointed you gave no reasons for voting me.  (Your post just now clarified it though, so we good.)

Does anyone have any other suspects they'd like to discuss? Asking now so it doesn't come up shortly before rollover and cause mass chaos and vote switching. Random Bystander got poked, and Quinn had a very short crusade against Ashbringer, but otherwise it's been a two way race so far. 

Unofficial Vote Count:

Illwei (5): Ashbringer, STINK, Striker, Archer, Ventyl 

Archer (3): Matrim, Random Bystander, Illwei

Random Bystander (1): Kas

[Illwei]

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

(Your post just now clarified it though, so we good.)

Wait! no! the plot has been foiled! ;-;

Archer

smh my vote is meaningless with a reason ;-;

8 minutes ago, Archer said:

but otherwise it's been a two way race so far. 

How

it's been me, with like, Mat and rby voting on you because of gut

P.S.

oh huh, *checks PM* went from the book of vigor to dog walking real fast huh. I thought I gave reasoning but Ig not :P.

(this is your cue ash! where you go "aha! Illwei did not expect Archer to actually show up and spill the contents of their PM!" or something like that)

Edited February 2, 2021 by Illwei

[Mat he/him]

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

it's been me, with like, Mat and rby voting on you because of gut

Not gut for me. At least not all of it. 

[Mist she/her]

Flyingbooks. The Gods of Luck and Chance RNG (cards as Alv suggested) have decreed that I seek your persuasion to not vote on you. If you manage to convince me (who knows maybe I'll make it RNG [I probably won't] ) you'll have my fealty til night. 

Edit and yay my formatting didn't break 

Edited February 2, 2021 by Mist

[Ashbringer he/him]

55 minutes ago, Illwei said:

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Maybe. That's not really provable either way.

Where's your chalk? oh, it was "stolen" ? man, that's not believable smh. If i was an Elim do you think I'd come out and be like "this is a susupicious action" after constantly saying that I was taking that action? do you think that if I was an Elim I would say I actually didn't take that action which seems to be half of your reasoning here in the first place?

So you stole my chalk. Got it. 

... in all seriousness, if you think Elim!you wouldn't do it because it would attract too much suspicion, I'm struggling to see why Village!you would. Maybe that's just me. I can believe that you didn't put an action in, but I'm not sure about the intent behind it. But that wasn't my main point anyway.

55 minutes ago, Illwei said:

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Well, I reacted, and you did absolutely nothing with it during the night

What would you want me to do with it? I noted it? not everything I do has to make sense to you for me to do it, that's not on my checklist that I check before...doing anything. right now that checklist has one box, and right next to that box it says "do I really wanna say this?" and like, i definitely have ignored that checklist more than once. Yeah it's my job to try and get yall to understand what I'm doing, but it's your job to try and understand as well :P. not for me to explain. and explain. and explain. while you're stuck in a tunnel so dark you can't see my explanations.

Illwei: *Places bait*

Ash: *Takes bait*

Illwei: "Noted"

...? It's your bait. What are you baiting me into? Voting you?

55 minutes ago, Illwei said:

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Take that part out, and the contradiction is obvious

I find this sentence completely irrelevant. If i take out parts of what you say, I could frame you to look suspicious. I gave the reasoning, and you don't get to just ignore it because I didn't respond to you right away.

Perhaps you could. But from my point of view I didn't "take out parts", the parts didn't exist. That's not framing, that's at best a misunderstanding because you left me with no way of reading your intentions.

A 'misunderstanding' that you left sitting for 24 hours. That is what my argument boils down to.

 

This will probably be my last big post on this for a while, I need to do homework.

 

Edit:

Oh. Right.

52 minutes ago, Archer said:

Looking at our PM, it appears that yes, Illwei did mention wanting to take the Book of Vigor on Friday (D1) and that they hadn't told Striker about it. I apologize for having forgotten about that. It came up when they voted Connie. I said why you do this. They said because they mentioned something that someone had told them that I don't think that person would have told them if they weren't e/e. I guessed it was Striker telling Connie about their book choice. They said no, although I'm going for Vigor. I wasn't going for books, so I promptly forgot that piece of information.

Did Illwei mention keeping the Vigor Book out of Elim hands? Because I really... cannot parse this besides that Illwei did say she wanted Vigor. She said that in thread. I want to know if she mentioned why to anyone.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Ashbringer

[Illwei]

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

I'm struggling to see why Village!you would.

Because when I say things I'm not saying them, worried about how I'm sounding. I'm just. Saying them.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

...? It's your bait. What are you baiting me into? Voting you?

I wanted to see if anyone else was going to hop onto your reasoning after you voted me. I wanted you to vote me. Maybe you woulda if I explained right then, but also once I explain, I think the elims are less likely to.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

that's at best a misunderstanding because you left me with no way of reading your intentions.

Yeah, it's a misunderstanding. One that should be cleared up by now, yet you're still using that reasoning to try and push me.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Did Illwei mention keeping the Vigor Book out of Elim hands? Because I really... cannot parse this besides that Illwei did say she wanted Vigor. She said that in thread. I want to know if she mentioned why to anyone.

Yeah, apparently I didn't

apparently I thought i did but went back to check and all I talked about was walking the dog or whatnot ya know

so i only have one source now and that was striker smh

[Ashbringer he/him]

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Because when I say things I'm not saying them, worried about how I'm sounding. I'm just. Saying them.

... gotcha. I think.

8 minutes ago, Illwei said:

I wanted to see if anyone else was going to hop onto your reasoning after you voted me. I wanted you to vote me. Maybe you woulda if I explained right then, but also once I explain, I think the elims are less likely to.

... depends on the explanation. But yeah. That's still my main gripe.

And, a whole four people hopped on the train, somewhat on my reasoning. (Including @STINK, who I'd like to hear more from, because they seemed to just add support to my reasoning without really saying anything. Which I know is fairly Stink, but still.) So, what's the verdict on that? You've said you're not really that suspicious of Archer - my bad, it looked like you were - so who are you suspicious of?

14 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Yeah, it's a misunderstanding. One that should be cleared up by now, yet you're still using that reasoning to try and push me.

Again, my main gripe is/was that you left the misunderstanding hanging for so long, not the misunderstanding itself. You've said your reasons for wanting the Vigor book, and they're fair reasons, but it would have been so easy to just mention them.

And because you just now said that you were... trying to draw suspicion to see who would follow it and follow me, I guess?

If that was the plan, why not just... PM me or someone you trusted and say that you'd rather discuss it during the day? That would at least tell me you have a reason to wait.

 

I don't even know anymore.

Homework. Do homework. Off Shard.

[Illwei]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Including @STINK, who I'd like to hear more from, because they seemed to just add support to my reasoning without really saying anything. Which I know is fairly Stink, but still.

They.

They did not.

They voted me because...I'm not british?, I think we've gone over this already? I insulted their Maths or whatnot and then they were like "I'm litterally voting u tomorrow" and then they did

Which is why

see

it was you and Striker and Stink, all having different reasonings.

then Ventyl, who also had different reasoning but was just sheeping archer for like no reason and didn't even understand what he was sheeping, and that's like, the most suspicious of them for me. but only makes sense to me for him to choose Archer to sheep over like, [Ash, Striker] if he's E/E with one of you. idk.

13 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

PM me or someone you trusted and say that you'd rather discuss it during the day?

I

I did not trust you :P.

THink I did PM someone? maybe? I've been like

This game is stressful for me because of the whole chalkling mechanic, and like, I'm having trouble reading people

and like, I don't really have any trusts.

I've told Striker some things, but he doesn't actually want to talk to me :P. I think my next top trust would have to be Quinn? but at the same time she doesn't terribly like talking about the game with me I find :P. and I don't quite trust her to keep things from you or Gears :P.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

@Ashbringer In Illwei’s defense, she did in fact mention wanting to get the book of vigor to keep it out of elim hands, around ~18 hours into D1. I’m about to sleep, just felt the need to add that. I’ll think about what it means later.

[Kasimir he/him]

While Grace [OOC: Random Bystander] had fit the loose profile that Duncan had in mind, he decided he would still be keeping his eye on her, though he wouldn't press the issue just yet. 

Evan [OOC: Archer] though. Had he been interested in trying to get them to waste the last of their chalk? Or had he simply been opportunistic about stirring trouble? 

[OOC: Hi Alv ] 

Edited to add:

6 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Why are you and people in general scared to talk about suspicions during the night?

[OOC: TBH, it's good to, and this used to be common practice in the heydays when I played actively. The perception is that it's a good guide for Village Vigs and even if there are no Village Vigs, you don't want to die with your suspicions, especially if you've suspected an Evil player correctly. It's a good time to talk about the results of the execution as well. Moreover, this gives the Village some idea of where to go upon your death, since Team Evil sometimes does kill players to set up the target of their suspicions or because they're onto them. The worst is when you tell an Evil player something in a PM and get killed and no one knows exactly what's going on.

What I'm basically saying is that there often is very good reason to do so. Withholding information to bait responses can be a good tactic for Village but that's within specific circumstances. Eventually, even the trap has to be sprung. 

But I was trying to take AG7 easy, and I am having a quiet RPful game here, so I'm not gonna practice this and say too much at Night. Nights scare me  ]

Edited February 2, 2021 by Kasimir
formatting/justification/bold because it hurts my soul otherwise

[STINK he/him]

its a new day

its a new dawn

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

@Ashbringer In Illwei’s defense, she did in fact mention wanting to get the book of vigor to keep it out of elim hands, around ~18 hours into D1. I’m about to sleep, just felt the need to add that. I’ll think about what it means later.

In thread or in PMs? 

If so why did she never state her intentions in thread? @Illwei, this is why Ash is suspicious of you.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Ventyl

[StrikerEZ he/him]

5 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

In thread or in PMs? 

In PMs

[Mat he/him]

11 minutes ago, Ventyl said:

In thread or in PMs? 

If so why did she never state her intentions in thread? @Illwei, this is why Ash is suspicious of you.

I don’t think hiding stuff from the main thread is suspicious by itself. If I were elim every time I hid something from the main thread, I’d have been elim... all my games.

Thats kinda what PMs are for. Stating intentions to a single person you think is safe to share with as opposed to the main thread where there are definitely elims around.

[Kasimir he/him]

14 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Thats kinda what PMs are for. Stating intentions to a single person you think is safe to share with as opposed to the main thread where there are definitely elims around.

[OOC: Sure would kinda suck if that person spends a few cycles chilling with you and then turns out to be Evil and having called for your death with their buddies, though. Just sayin'  ]

[|TJ| he/him]

On 2/1/2021 at 7:46 AM, Quinn0928 said:

Camp Defense was 3.

Confirmation, if it was ever required. This is Kas, TUO and Mat's Acid, yeah?

On 2/1/2021 at 8:29 AM, StrikerEZ said:

?? I’ve been suspicious of Illwei since the end of D1. 

I don't recall you mentioning it. Have you?

On 2/1/2021 at 8:32 AM, Quinn0928 said:

The elims have exactly nothing to lose from not killing us

Lesser camp protects, lesser kill protects, lesser roleblocks, lesser action scans

On 2/1/2021 at 8:49 AM, StrikerEZ said:

Mat's getting close to dying. It's the last few hours of the cycle, and there hasn't been a whole lot of talk about shrekking anyone besides Gears, and that was mostly joke votes. Illwei (and to a lesser extent Quinn) start shifting the vote off of Mat and towards Dannex as more people come on and are unsure of the Mat shrek. There's weirdness about Illwei with regards to her thinking that it'd be suspicious to go for the Vigor book while going for it herself as well.

Now, here's the crazy part: I think Mat, Quinn, and Illwei are elims. Quinn said she thought that there wouldn't be any players who started off with Specializations that were from books that started off in the camp supply. Why would she think that? Because the elims have at least two players with Specializations to start off. Illwei started off with a Specialization (ask any of Burnt, Stink, TJ, or Kas), and wanted to get the Vigor Specialization, so we know she didn't start with that one. 

This post, sigh. If you think Mat is an elim, and Illwei saved Mat, it's Mat -> Illwei connection, not Illwei -> Mat connection as a villager who is uncomfortable Mat/Gears could have started it as well. Besides, I read Mat as village too from the posts this cycle, and I read Quinn as village as well. Thing is, this outlandish jumping to conclusion, I really don't think it's the action of an elim ._. Let me be clear, I'm not reading you as village either, I'm just confused about you. But this, in particular, doesn't seem like an elim move.

On 2/1/2021 at 9:23 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, Illwei was kind of hard-claiming non-rithmatist at that point,

Matrim, you were the one who told she was continuing her RP from sign-ups. I read this as similar to my thief claim.

On 2/1/2021 at 9:26 AM, Ashbringer said:

I’m also going to go look at what Archer said about Illwei-Connie, at some point. I’m a little suspicious of him grabbing the Bribe, but he did actually contribute a good bit D1.

What exactly did Archer contribute? He made two posts of note, one which told he's going for bribe preemptively, and one in which he said he isn't voting for the main wagons and votes on Illwei, both these I'm not exactly comfortable. So, what is the good bit he contributed?

On 2/1/2021 at 9:41 AM, Illwei said:

so I also forgot to submit an action tonight hehe! (I swear I'm not just saying things please TJ back me up here)

I thought you didn't want me to talk about it xD On a serious note, I don't think an elim would lie about it as it's the easiest way to get caught by crab users - much easier lies would be "protected myself" or "protected someone else"

On 2/1/2021 at 9:57 AM, StrikerEZ said:

I don't think that negates my point. Illwei could've voted on Dannex as a way to setup a potential counter-shrek for later. I don't think Illwei is the kind of player to defend her teammates super hard or anything, so I think she would've planted seeds for a later possibility. When Ash came on to vote Dannex, she used that momentum to get Dannex exed. 

Bolded wording very very weird. She used that momentum? No one followed that vote on Dannex till 4? hours later and Illwei did not speak about Dannex again. No other push on the vote. What is this momentum?

On 2/1/2021 at 11:19 AM, Matrim's Dice said:

• Gears: Here comes the question about whether elim!Gears would bring up them not submitting kills as a strat, which honestly makes a lot of sense. For now I'm good putting him at Mild Village for that + the reasonable contributions they've made

Disagree with the reasoning for the read. Could be the kill was blocked/protected and he was trying to move away from that. 

23 hours ago, Archer said:

Being cynical, Illwei made a read on D1 that Striker was more suspicious than Matrim, so tunneling!Striker may have seen that as defending Mat and threatening him and decided he needs to be aggressive. If any of them flip, yes we need to look at everyone who CWed to kill Dannex (as doing so either to protect Mat or Gears). But I think some people switched because they didn’t like either option at the time. The votes on Gears were placed in the first hour for a NAI reason. The Matrim bus was based on the impression of some kind of a slip, so it was justified, but then Matrim started acting really villagery. Everyone knows reads are villagey, but at the time, my gut said this is a guy who is about to be mis-exed. Unfortunately, it looked like a v/v pair of wagons to me, so I stuck with my most elimy read for an exe. The people who did create a CW did so in a pretty villagey way for villagey reasons. Quinn was thinking along the same lines as me, so unless they planned it in the elim doc to justify it (which is still a possibility), it looked like they were genuinely convinced. The target was an inactive, which I’m not sure elims trying to CW would have thought to do. More likely they would have piled on Gears or Matrim, whichever isn’t on their team. Everyone knows it’s sus to make a last minute CW. The fact that there hadn’t been much movement late in the day was screaming v/v vote that the elims are content to sit on. Which is why everyone sitting on Gears is on my mild sus list. Caveat: I don’t like Burnt’s vote because if they truly wanted to vote on whoever everyone else is voting on, they could have voted on the last red name they saw. If Mat flip elim, Burnt is my top pick for a teammate.

This whole post reads very much retroactive. Like a lots of things are "I had thought-" and "This was my thinking-" well why didn't you say so at the time? "It looked like a v/v wagon" why didn't you say so? "my gut said Matrim was a mis-vote"  well you didn't say a thing after initially mentioning Matrim was the suspicious of the village nulls. This paragraph sounds structured to make the past!you look good, when you did not say any of the things in the thread. 

23 hours ago, Archer said:

My conspiracy theory is elims also know that people who break ties are sus, and they knew it was v/v, so Illwei just needed to pick a third party vote that wouldn't be tested.

You did that exact same thing. :P.

21 hours ago, Archer said:

TJ, as for the post of mine you bring up, I can see why you'd think grabbing a bribe is elimy. My excuse is I'm trying to be as nice as possible to the neutral this game, and correctly guessed that bribes would be a hot commodity in the night when the elims can grab them to mess with us later. I also know better than to attempt blatant vote manipulation. I'd grab some chalk and Silence people if I wanted to play that game. It's less traceable. 

Quote

I'm still waiting on the answers to some GM PM questions about how certain things work. (Can someone explain maps to me?) My current plan is to take a bribe today. @thief you are welcome to take it off my hands to help with your win-con. If you can take things in the same round they are picked up, rob me today, then you can take something from the supply in the night. If you can't, you now know where it will be, in case all of the elims take one in the night. You can rob me in the night, or take from the supply in the night and pick this up tomorrow. I have no plans to use the item. I will inform the camp when I have been successfully robbed. 

My problem is not the fact that you grabbed the bribe. It's how you tried to reason it off as village. There were 6 bribes in the supply. The thief could have picked from those. I see absolutely no reason for you to offer it to the thief other than to appear non-threatening with the bribe and appear as village. The thief has no reason to believe you too. The continued insistence to get robbed reads very weird to me. 

Reading Reading as village

19 hours ago, Archer said:

stawwwwp trying to pocket me. Alvron complimented I think Ash on D1 and I was this close to screaming pocketer 

Very easy to fake this post, but it reads an genuine to me. Village points for this.

18 hours ago, Lotus said:

Somewhat a nonsense list of somewhat reads:

Illwei: Always end up reading em as village. Know em too well. So null I guess cause IDK

Quinn: da same

Araris: Idk thingy

Striker: A little sus but they always get killed early

Mat: I feel like if there is a Elim!Illwei Elim!Mat is a possibility but otherwise don't really think their elimy

Gears: The best nonsense partner ever.

Books: I don't really like how they said they didn't take an action last night. Admittedly I've been forgetting about rollover a lot, but... mmm just feels off

Stink: Best admin ever

Kas: Changed his profile picture again

I've been trying to not elim-read Lotus a lot for her only RPing throughout the game, but this post just screams elim.

15 hours ago, Quinn0928 said:

The phrasing of the question he answered was "If I block a kill with my Line of Forbiddance, will I be informed?" I didn't ask that question, or any version of it, since I figured the answer was no. And given the phrasing, someone was definitely at least thinking about drawing that Line at some point. Can confirm that Sart doesn't answer rules clarification questions in PMs, so that person wouldn't have known the answer to that until just now. (also whoever asked that question is almost certainly village since there are no kills that the elims would need to block right now). Obviously speculation and not well-founded (and now that I've said it reads vil, anyone could try to claim they were the one who asked in order to gain vil credit). But yeah. That was my thought process behind that.

I think @Sart sees the doubts asked in the thread (this one by Kas in particular), and phrases the questions himself and gives answers to them. At least that's how his clarifications seemed to me. The questions seem very formal, all of them. So I assume he's been phrasing them himself. I used Line of Forbidden to protect myself too and I did not ask that in my GM PM, so it's either he phrases the questions himself or we have a 3rd LoF self-protector. If any outed crab users saw someone target me, we probably have a suspect.

13 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Are you trying to... use you forgetting actions in the QF to show you could forget actions here? That... makes some level of sense, but also no. For one thing, double the time. For another, you repeatedly stated your intentions. But... eh. Sure.

Ash, what exactly are you trying to say here? That she didn't exactly forget her actions? That she lied about forgetting her actions and she actually did use an action? If she lied about her forgetting her actions, what is your assumption that she used? Would an elim blatantly lie about forgetting an action, whereupon they could be easily caught if scanned? I don't see why Elim!Illwei has any reason to lie about not using an action. 

I really do not like this train on Illwei. Reasons: STINK (Math), Striker (vote based on lots of assumptions and jumping to conclusions and tied to two other player), Archer (mainly for starting Dannex vote), Ventyl (jumped on Archer's reasoning) and Ash (whole lotta stuff). 

From what we've seen so far, I only see Illwei being an elim if Mat is one. Not because she started the Dannex vote, but more because Mat's been sly-defending Illwei, i.e. defending without actually defending, but this is like a stretch scenario because reading Mat as vil right now.

And I'm really not into the contradiction reason. It's such a silly mistake, way too foolish for an elim to make. Literally no reason for elim!Illwei to make the post saying "villagers will not go for the book", I don't see how an elim could make a big slip such as this after continually saying they're going for the said book. And now Striker's confirmed that she had told him the plan so elims don't get their hands on it preemptively, not after, like in thread. 

@Illwei, I don't recall suspicions on anyone, who are your top suspicions?

Archer. Suspicious of Lotus. Very mild elim read on the bystander. they were quiet rping till they are voted on upon which a quick response was given. New player, hence very mild elim read. 

No more elim read on TUO because of the camp protect, but still find their item analysis very obvious. Like yes, everyone agrees with it, but that's because it's mainly stating the obvious. So agreeing with it, != village read. Also, would like to know why they changed from their initial plan of just using LoF to protect themselves. 

No more village read on Ventyl for jumping on Archer's reasoning. 

Ash is village on the whole, but that one point of "Archer contributed a good bit in D1" is nagging me.

Striker... is really sticking with the "found half the elim team" theory. I really don't know, confused. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Okay, I think I'm mostly caught up, although I'm not entirely sure why Matrim isn't on the table today. I have a stronger suspicion of him now than I did during D1. If Matrim is elim, then Illwei is pretty suspicious. But there is no reason for elim!Illwei to swing the vote off of village!Mat. However, I think elim!Illwei might have voted on Bystander rather than Danex, since Bystander already had a vote. The hole in this argument is that we generally don't vote out new players D1. So basically, Illwei/Matrim could be e/e, but I'd prefer to vote out Matrim first of the two. And I'd say that Ash might be a stronger connection with Mat than with Illwei. Mat did have a Bucket of Acid, but elim!Mat would probably want to use that ASAP anyways.

Based on some responses to my GoLaC Defense plan, I have slight village reads on Reading, Quinn, Striker (via PM), and Gears. They all expressed discomfort with my plan in some shape or form, which I think an elim would be less likely to do.

As pointed out, Kas and Unknown both drew Lines of Warding, and appear to have been the only two. So that puts them as decent village for me. I also don't think Kas would fit the profile of an elim team that didn't send in a kill

I'm rather suspicious of Archer, who gets my vote for now, due to being a current option. His vote jumped around D1 without contributing a whole lot to things. He took a Bribe, which I'm not entirely sure about, but I can definitely see an elim doing. His post with reasons to vote on Illwei gives me vibes of the QF we were elims together in, which is probably where most of my suspicion comes from.

Ventyl has been rubbing me wrong, but that always happens. Given my village reads on Kas/Unknown, Ventyl is my greatest suspect that went for Chalk, and Chalk is helpful for elims.

I have a slight suspicion on Devotary and Ash, but I think that's gut and only slightly puts them below everyone else.

Rough ordering of players, least to most suspicious:

Spoiler

Kas
Unknown
Striker
Quinn
Reading
Gears
Anyone not listed (above is village, below is elim)
Devotary
Ash
Ventyl
Archer
Illwei
Matrim

 

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Mat did have a Bucket of Acid, but elim!Mat would probably want to use that ASAP anyways.

I doubt elims would be given an item useless to them, but even so, if I were evil I would have kept my mouth shut and not used it at all.

[Quintessential she/her]

10 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Okay, I think I'm mostly caught up, although I'm not entirely sure why Matrim isn't on the table today. I have a stronger suspicion of him now than I did during D1. If Matrim is elim, then Illwei is pretty suspicious. But there is no reason for elim!Illwei to swing the vote off of village!Mat. However, I think elim!Illwei might have voted on Bystander rather than Danex, since Bystander already had a vote. The hole in this argument is that we generally don't vote out new players D1. So basically, Illwei/Matrim could be e/e, but I'd prefer to vote out Matrim first of the two. And I'd say that Ash might be a stronger connection with Mat than with Illwei. Mat did have a Bucket of Acid, but elim!Mat would probably want to use that ASAP anyways.

Yeah, I'm not totally sure about Matrim either. Since when I looked through D1 he seemed pretty elim to me, but then at the end his last few posts read super village and the exe felt kind of v/v (at least until the chain on Dannex picked up, that is). The problem is that nothing Mat has said since D1 has really stood out to me as being particularly elim or particularly village... so I'm not sure what to do with that.

I would agree with you on Ash having a stronger connection to Matrim than Illwei does--although, Ash did say in a group PM with me, Illwei, Matrim, and some others (before Dannex became an option, I mean) that he would prefer to exe Matrim over Gears, but thought both of them were village. If elim!Ash wanted to protect elim!Matrim, he could have just not said that and voted on Gears instead, since Gears was an option earlier than Dannex was. So unless Gears was elim with both of them, which I find rather unlikely, I'm inclined to think that Ash isn't linked that strongly to Matrim either.

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I doubt elims would be given an item useless to them, but even so, if I were evil I would have kept my mouth shut and not used it at all.

Unless you wanted to use it up so it didn't go back in the Supply and get used by the village later. And anyway, it wouldn't be the first time the elims were given a role totally useless to them (me being alignment scanner elim in QF48 for example). It looks good on scans, so there actually is a point to it.

Edited February 2, 2021 by Quinn0928

[|TJ| he/him]

11 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I doubt elims would be given an item useless to them, but even so, if I were evil I would have kept my mouth shut and not used it at all.

Mat, we've learnt not to make assumptions based on distro guesses, yeah? xD 

And well, it makes sense for elim you to reveal it because it's a chance to save yourself by revealing you had an important item, which is what you did. Now, if elim!you weren't up for elimination, I agree that you wouldn't have spoken up or used it. But you were up for it, and did use the item as an out. Sort of a sacrifice, you save your life but have to draw a Line of Warding. Edit: Have to add a protect to the camp, not draw a LoW -.-

4 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

If elim!Ash wanted to protect elim!Matrim, he could have just not said that and voted on Gears instead, since Gears was an option earlier than Dannex was. So unless Gears was elim with both of them, which I find rather unlikely, I'm inclined to think that Ash isn't linked that strongly to Matrim either.

What reasoning would Ash give for voting on Gears though? I don't think Ash could have voted on Gears without picking up suspicion, and that could be one of the reasons why elim!Ash would not have wanted to vote on village!Gears. 

Edited February 2, 2021 by TJ Shade

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Unless you wanted to use it up so it didn't go back in the Supply and get used by the village later. And anyway, it wouldn't be the first time the elims were given a role totally useless to them (me being alignment scanner elim in QF48 for example). It looks good on scans, so there actually is a point to it.

Yeah, that's fair... the only reason I used it D1 is because I thought I was gonna die and wanted to add what I could to the defense. The Dannex switch was too quick for me to change that to like grab chalk or something and honestly I didn't know if I had survived after Sart called time  

[Quintessential she/her]

3 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

What reasoning would Ash give for voting on Gears though? I don't think Ash could have voted on Gears without picking up suspicion, and that could be one of the reasons why elim!Ash would not have wanted to vote on village!Gears. 

Though it's not like he had a reason for voting Dannex either--the reasoning was literally "I don't want Matrim to die." Idk, I bet elim!me could have gone through and done an ISO of Gears' posts and tunneled on him super hard and found something that would qualify as a reason to vote him. 

Edit: yes yes yes I know other people aren't me etc. shhhh okay my point is there was almost certainly more on Gears than there was on Dannex, since Dannex had said exactly nothing in-thread

Edited February 2, 2021 by Quinn0928