Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Ashbringer]

I could see Illwei-Mat. I don't think Quinn's tied enough to them to really be added as a third, though. It could just be that she thought no one would start with other specializations because hers wasn't available.

Of course, Mat being bad would be rather unhealthy for me. And I've got a stronger bead on Illwei.

 

... how do you "kind of hard-claim"? Isn't hard claiming just coming out and saying "I am [role]"?

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Because it's easy to forget that the assumptions you've reached with your team are assumptions that a villager couldn't reach on their own. It's a fair assumption to think that there wouldn't be players starting with Specializations from the books already in the supply...if you knew there were people who started off with Specializations that weren't already in the supply.

Fair, though it’s also easy to be over-careful about what you say as an elim. If Illwei flips elim I’d definitely look more at Quinn.

9 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

It's not that I suspect them because they defended you and I think you're an elim. I suspect them for their role in the defense for you and the counterlynch on Dannex.

Ash pointed out that Illwei voted Dannex way before anyone else, which is important.

10 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

And no one can check that you actually did. Handy, isn't that?

It’s fairly annoying, actually  

[---]

1 hour ago, Quinn0928 said:

The elims have exactly nothing to lose from not killing us

I think you emphasize that "nothing" a bit too strongly huh

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I somewhat agree with Illwei but yikes that train looks ungood

Imma assume that you "agree with the Illwei train" bc I haven't said anything so this is a retty useless statement hm

53 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I think Mat, Quinn, and Illwei are elims

That would be a pretty poggers team if I do say so myself

53 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Now, obviously this all falls apart if Quinn and/or Illwei aren't elims,

Sad how it's all fallen apart

Man I'm tryna think on how Striker thinks I'm an Elim, and it's really just completely based around the EoD switch thingy? I'm- Because I can see him being suspicious of things I've said in our PM, how I was so quick to give him a village read there, and how he was like "whoa wait I can do that as an Elim too" but like he don't mention that at all? this whole EoD flip was kinda wierd tbh (I mentioned to Mat in our PM, I was like "hah. watch Quinn and Ash lead a last minute switch" and then like, okay I led it but they were the first kinda to switch over and I really don't like Quinn at the end there tbh, as I've said before, because she was kinda like attacking Mat all day, and then he says one villager-y thing and it's like "welp nope" because my good sir, scum say villagery things for that exact reason and that's not really a reason to suddenly put them as like hard town because that's whe whole plan. it really felt like Quinn was arguing for something she didn't fully believe in and then she switched off onto Danex because she felt guilty. Now see E!Quinn doesn't feel guilt so I am pretty much TRding Quinn by now. Ash is strange but Ash said he's gonna be strange so that's not much to go on. ya know?

Also me talking about Vigor was just for fun like I wanted to grab vigor so the elims wouldn't have it ya know (huh sounds like something an Elim would say, huh? :P) and then I ended up not submitting an action. I was gonna do something tonight and then I- I didn't? so I also forgot to submit an action tonight hehe! (I swear I'm not just saying things please TJ back me up here) anyways yeah.

what else is there?

Uh, I'm not- I'm not really doing a lot this game. I'm kinda tired, and I'm not really trying really? sorry about that. I mean, I'm thinking when I can, but I'm not thinking a lot. or that hard. and my normal thinking state is like...idk.

So yeah also Matrim I don't think Archie/Conner is e/e because of PMs I've had with both of them? So yeah. I can Elaborate on that some more if anyone cares Ig.

Kinda at the point where I feel like it's pointless to talk- when enough people SR you that are they even going to try and listen to anything you say? like, idk. what I'm feeling rn. anyways.

Yeah I'm definitely not the non-rithmatist I have a specialization that was a fun joke but smhmh Striker outing me sad don't really appreciate that much

tldr:

 - Striker doesn't look good to me because of what he's chosen to focus on IMO, otherwise I'd have to wonder why he wouldn't want to reference our PM
 - Despite me not liking Quinn I guess I think she's village because of whatever I just said up there
 - Ash is confusing
 - Stink is definitely the Thief and he's mad that I know that

Biggest problems with Striker's theory? it relies on three people being Elims together. When I flip vil what's gonna happen? is striker going to go "oop, guess Mat's Village now! hehe!" well I mean probably not like that but you get the point like

It relies on the fact that Striker has already caught over half of the Elim team, which just. isn't great reasoning? and not...great? yeah. At that point I turn into a really bad no good info kill- in which i might clear two people, but also they could still be Elims without me, so... ? :P.

P.S.

Also just remembered: Just because I was going for the Vigor book don't mean I didn't start with vigor. just means I didn't want someone else to get it.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Illwei

[Condensation]

2 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Archie/Conner

Ah yes, Archie and yours truly, Conner.

[Ashbringer]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

Ash is strange but Ash said he's gonna be strange so that's not much to go on. ya know?

Also me talking about Vigor was just for fun like I wanted to grab vigor so the elims wouldn't have it ya know (huh sounds like something an Elim would say, huh? :P) and then I ended up not submitting an action. I was gonna do something tonight and then I- I didn't? so I also forgot to submit an action tonight hehe! (I swear I'm not just saying things please TJ back me up here) anyways yeah.

If you only wanted Vigor so the Elims couldn't, knowing your own Villageness, why didn't you submit an action?

If you didn't submit an action, why did you half-accuse Books of taking "your" Vigor Book?

And why didn't you mention either when I asked during the night?

[---]

1 minute ago, Ashbringer said:

If you only wanted Vigor so the Elims couldn't, knowing your own Villageness, why didn't you submit an action?

If you didn't submit an action, why did you half-accuse Books of taking "your" Vigor Book?

And why didn't you mention either when I asked during the night?

1) because I'm an idiot

2) To see how people would react

3) because night

[+Lotus]

I always read Illwei and Quinn as village even when they aren’t, so I really don’t know what to think

[StrikerEZ]

4 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Man I'm tryna think on how Striker thinks I'm an Elim, and it's really just completely based around the EoD switch thingy? I'm- Because I can see him being suspicious of things I've said in our PM, how I was so quick to give him a village read there, and how he was like "whoa wait I can do that as an Elim too" but like he don't mention that at all?

I am suspicious of you because of our PM as well. That just felt like less valid reasoning to me. Anyone can say that they're suspicious of someone because of something in a PM. I was hoping to rely on more concrete evidence than that. Though, the odd vibes I got from our PM (especially considering the fact that you just...stopped responding once it was clear that I wasn't changing my mind about Mat) led me to look into you more.

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Ash pointed out that Illwei voted Dannex way before anyone else, which is important.

I don't think that negates my point. Illwei could've voted on Dannex as a way to setup a potential counter-shrek for later. I don't think Illwei is the kind of player to defend her teammates super hard or anything, so I think she would've planted seeds for a later possibility. When Ash came on to vote Dannex, she used that momentum to get Dannex exed. 

10 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Yeah I'm definitely not the non-rithmatist I have a specialization that was a fun joke but smhmh Striker outing me sad don't really appreciate that much

I am sorry about outing you to the thread, but I felt it was relevant and important enough to let people know.

11 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Biggest problems with Striker's theory? it relies on three people being Elims together. When I flip vil what's gonna happen? is striker going to go "oop, guess Mat's Village now! hehe!" well I mean probably not like that but you get the point like

I'm not so set in my current reads that I'll blindly follow them if you (or Mat or Quinn) flip village. I will reassess if/when that happens. And if/when you flip elim, I will not blindly shrek them either at that point.

[---]

Just now, StrikerEZ said:

especially considering the fact that you just...stopped responding once it was clear that I wasn't changing my mind about Mat

huh? *checks PM*

I was about to say something like "but you were the last one to send the message, I was just waiting for you to get back to me" before I realized that that was a stupid thing to say

uh, I mean, we can keep talking if you want? Mat was kinda the topic, once you were set then what's the point? I woulda PMd you again if I had something to say but like, we're in a group together so like what would I have said, ya know? something like "Man why u think I'm an elim ;-;" like, idk :P. I'm not really doing the whole PMing thing this game, kinda tired, as I said earlier :P.

3 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

I'm not so set in my current reads that I'll blindly follow them if you (or Mat or Quinn) flip village. I will reassess if/when that happens. And if/when you flip elim, I will not blindly shrek them either at that point.

no so that make no sense

don't mean you gotta be completely set in them, but your whole thing was like "they're Elims together, this is proof" not "they are individually Elims, this is Proof" so if I flip Elim then like, why would you suddenly go back on that and be like "man, they might not be Elims though" that just goes against what your whole reasoning is? and if I flip village and then you go "but man, they could still be elims" ? like, there's enough people on me I could die today ya know? and like, the whole reasoning of yours on me is that you think it's a Me-Mat-Quinn team?

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

don't mean you gotta be completely set in them, but your whole thing was like "they're Elims together, this is proof" not "they are individually Elims, this is Proof" so if I flip Elim then like, why would you suddenly go back on that and be like "man, they might not be Elims though" that just goes against what your whole reasoning is? and if I flip village and then you go "but man, they could still be elims" ? like, there's enough people on me I could die today ya know? and like, the whole reasoning of yours on me is that you think it's a Me-Mat-Quinn team?

Okay, let me try to say what I meant. I am confident about you guys being elims together, but will obviously be willing to revise that opinion if one of you flips elim. And the other part I was trying to say was that I am not...what's the word...blinded? by my confidence to assume that just because one of you is an elim that means that I'm completely right. I am definitely overselling my points right now, because I tend to be too wishy washy and I think that pushing people like this gets discussions going. But I do worry that I'm not right. I just think it's more fun to act like I am and see what people think and how they respond and see what happens when certain people flip certain ways.

[---]

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I am confident about you guys being elims together, but will obviously be willing to revise that opinion if one of you flips elim.

:thonk:

1 minute ago, StrikerEZ said:

I just think it's more fun to act like I am and see what people think and how they respond and see what happens when certain people flip certain ways.

smh smh why are you exposing ur plan here smh I was out here saying things tryna get some sorta reaction from the crowd and now youse gon' don revealed the scheme :P.

[StrikerEZ]

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

:thonk:

I'm too tired. That second sentence should've said that I will revise my opinion if one of you flips village.

1 minute ago, Illwei said:

smh smh why are you exposing ur plan here smh I was out here saying things tryna get some sorta reaction from the crowd and now youse gon' don revealed the scheme :P.

Because I'm worrying that I'm being too harsh? I dunno

[---]

I think that I still have a village read on striker. wish they kept it up but I still liked this conversation. they haven't seemed scared of confrontation at all idk.

Maybe they're just  good at Elim :P.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Illwei

[Araris Valerian]

normal!Araris is trying to take control. I sense myself slipping into the shadows with each additional post.

I will say that my PM with Striker gave me village vibes. He was uncomfortable with my RNG scheme, but not in a way that I'd expect an elim to be. But I'm pretty inexperienced at reading people from PMs, so I could be totally off here.

[Mat]

Promised reads list:

• Gears: Here comes the question about whether elim!Gears would bring up them not submitting kills as a strat, which honestly makes a lot of sense. For now I'm good putting him at Mild Village for that + the reasonable contributions they've made
• Quinn: I think I'm good at reading Quinn. This game she seems to be tinfoiling as much as vil!her ever does, add that to my gut and the different theories/reasonings that seem villagery to me and we got another Village read.
• Ash: Coming from the person who gut-reads Ash as village no matter what: Slight Village. Though I did claim Acid Bucket to them way before I said it in thread, and I also told them I was using it, and I wasn't roleblocked, and they kept their word about informing the thread. Plus, I kinda think they're the Thief  
• Lotus: Hasn't done anything other than RP, which is... typical. Null with a call for reads of some form.
• Books: Very Slight Elim for their voting pattern + connections to other elim reads (ie Archer)
• Archer: Strange voting patterns (that is, their votes have had hmmmm quality reasoning) plus connection to other elim reads (ie Connie, though I don't remember why I think this). Slight Elim
• Burnt: Haven't had any PMs with Burnt. Null. They seem a little... burnt out this game  
• Ventyl: People are saying his votes were weird but honestly? I read it as village!Ventyl. Slight Village.
• Order: Drew a line of Warding, with no contradictions. Seems pretty Village to me... my gut goes a bit against them though so let's make that village Slight.
• Araris: Came up with a sensible RNG plan. Voted Gears which I... don't understand, but it's characteristic of Araris to stick with an early vote. Gut Village at this point. Plus a sensible Striker read I think, but I'll get into that...
• Striker: Hmmm idk because they seem village to me if only because of how hard they're sticking with elim!me and other theories like that and I think an elim would back off sooner than that- but the narrative seems so... wrong in my eyes cause I know I'm vil. So largely Null but I also would be fine with killing them even though I think they're vil. TWTBAW in my opinion but it's an instinct reaction to them tunneling on me xD
• Alvron: Alvron is Alvron is Null
• Shard of Reading: @Shard of Reading hellooooooo you normally are more active as a vil hellooooooo... Gut Very Slight Elim.
• Random Bystander: A normal sub-inactive new player profile. Null. I want to say vil like every other new player but Vasher/Doriyah taught me that's a bad plan  
• Illwei: For some reason Illwei thinks I can read her well and I don't think I can cause they've been vil a lot lately and I just always put them as vil. So there's a difference between being able to read someone generally (Me with Quinn) and reading them as vil no matter what (Me with Ash) but I read them as gut Slight Elim this game so I really don't know. I wanna read them as vil because of the sudden train and almost AtE with them being tired this game but gut trumps all...
• TJ: I have no clue how TJ would play as an elim. They haven't been super active but I can't really judge that... while their vote on me was technically incorrectly reasoned it was correctly logically reasoned. Very Slight Village.
• Connie: I think there was also something in thread early D1, but Slight Elim from PMs. Slight connection to Archer though I... don't know why :P.
• Devotary: Agree with Ash's assessment of Devo, though it was only a read. Pretty Village, which by itself is almost strange cause I never can read Devo...
• Kasimir: Same as Order. Drew a Warding line and that has gone untested. Village.
• Mat: Obviously Strong Village, threw an Acid Bucket and is writing this very long reads list  (in all seriousness a list by itself is not ai pls don't think it is though I wouldn't mind)
• Stink: Normal Null Stink, though Illwei thinks they're the Thief for some reason...
• Mist: Uhhh should I RNG my read? Null.

That turned out longer than I planned. Whoops.

TL;DR: Archer/Connie evilish (connection???) Illwei kinda evil, Reading and Books maybe evil. Quinn/Devo probably good, Ash as well. Ventyl also likely good. 

I don't like the Illwei train even though they're on my evil list soooooo idk about that but my vote is staying on Archer. I'd also be fine with Connie and debatably Striker though that's complicated  

I'd like to see more from Reading, @Random Bystander, and @Lotus

[Ashbringer]

Huh. Joe’s viewing the thread. Hello!

 

I’m probably going to try and figure out what Kas was suggesting someone else analytical should analyze. But I’ll do that tomorrow.

[---]

23 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

my vote is staying on Archer. I'd also be fine with Connie

So I guess it could be distancing, but the one of the first things that Connie did in her PM with me was to say that she was suspicious of Archer. I brought this to Archer and then Archer got a tad bit (too worried, imo, but idk) worried and then quickly summarized his PMs with connie. Something that I guess could be faked pretty easily (honestly thinking about that, sounds like a pretty fun idea to try :P) but idk that's why I have them not E/E rn.

Also if something is Twtbaw, it would...not be striker? almost feel like it would be me rn. or kwinn. I think striker is just...wolfy. :P. rn, but also I don't think he's an Elim so here we are.

Donno where that village read of Devo came from? idk.

So like @Matrim's Dice and i guess @Quinn0928 who were like "whoa why did this pick up like this" on me, like who do we have

 - Ash, who basically stated intent to vote Illwei during the night for legit suspicious contradictory things I've said
 - Striker, who, well...Well I mean I knew he thought I was evil or something because of PMs and I don't think his reasoning makes all that much sense but it's not the same reasoning as Ash's
 - Stink, who...I think he voted me because he put some math in a PM and I was like "ew math" ? idk man.

Anyways no one took a look at someone's reasonings and was like *whoosh* hopping on ya know? they had all previously basically stated their intents to vote me for different reasons or whatnot

Idk Maybe stink is actually has reasoning idk.

[STINK]

4 hours ago, Illwei said:

math

yeah its maths

[Quintessential]

10 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Quinn said she thought that there wouldn't be any players who started off with Specializations that were from books that started off in the camp supply. Why would she think that? Because the elims have at least two players with Specializations to start off. 

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

It's a fair assumption to think that there wouldn't be players starting with Specializations from the books already in the supply...if you knew there were people who started off with Specializations that weren't already in the supply.

I mean. I did start off knowing there was at least one person with a Specialization that wasn't in the Supply (spoiler alert, it was me). Also I wouldn't let that kind of thing slip as an elim : P I spend way too much time worrying about whether something I say shows TMI.

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

Now see E!Quinn doesn't feel guilt so I am pretty much TRding Quinn by now. Ash is strange but Ash said he's gonna be strange so that's not much to go on. ya know?

elim!me does in fact feel guilt. I just... ignore it until after I'm dead or the game is over. 

I would contribute something meaningful to the conversation but I apparently am just... not good at reading people, which I suppose makes sense since it's been like four games since I've had to and before that I was too new to really try. I find myself agreeing with... actually all of Matrim's reads, though? Uh. Should that concern me? XD

Edited February 1, 2021 by Quinn0928

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

2 hours ago, STINK said:

yeah its maths

I can get down to vote Illwei for this

EDIT:

...or maybe STINK since he likes math?

Edited February 1, 2021 by Ventyl

[Shard of Reading]

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Shard of Reading: @Shard of Reading hellooooooo you normally are more active as a vil hellooooooo... Gut Very Slight Elim.

Sorry, I went to my grandparents on Saturday, and it snowed basically all day on Sunday, so I had a fun time keeping up with that. I also have finals, so I'm not going to be as active as I like this cycle. You should be able to get more from me on Tuesday.

I've got to go catch up with the thread now.

[Ookla-son-son-Ventyl]

I would just like to say I think @Condensation is thief due to some interesting things in PMs, such as them taking a Spring-powered crowd and then reacting very interestingly when I told them it was thiefy. 

Obviously, I’m might be wrong. But, I think it’s something worth looking into. Also @Sart, how does CMing the thief affect the horde?

[Mat]

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

So I guess it could be distancing, but the one of the first things that Connie did in her PM with me was to say that she was suspicious of Archer. I brought this to Archer and then Archer got a tad bit (too worried, imo, but idk) worried and then quickly summarized his PMs with connie. Something that I guess could be faked pretty easily (honestly thinking about that, sounds like a pretty fun idea to try :P) but idk that's why I have them not E/E rn.

Hmm

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

I think striker is just...wolfy. :P. rn, but also I don't think he's an Elim so here we are.

Exactly my problem xD 

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

Donno where that village read of Devo came from? idk.

From points about things, from smart votes, from gut. Idk.

9 hours ago, Illwei said:

Ash, who basically stated intent to vote Illwei during the night for legit suspicious contradictory things I've said
 - Striker, who, well...Well I mean I knew he thought I was evil or something because of PMs and I don't think his reasoning makes all that much sense but it's not the same reasoning as Ash's
 - Stink, who...I think he voted me because he put some math in a PM and I was like "ew math" ? idk man.

Anyways no one took a look at someone's reasonings and was like *whoosh* hopping on ya know? they had all previously basically stated their intents to vote me for different reasons or whatnot

Aight okay. Makes sense. And clears a small issue I had in voting you  But I'm still staying on Archer.

2 hours ago, Ventyl said:

I can get down to vote Illwei for this

EDIT:

...or maybe STINK since he likes math?

I like math

[Kasimir]

Their chalk supplies were gone.

Duncan felt that choking panic swim up again, as black spots danced in his vision. He sat down, leadenly, knees draw up against his chest, and forced himself to breathe. He felt a bit better with the crumbling wall to his back. The wall was solid, pressing against his shoulders. Reminding him he was here, now. Not in that overrun camp, on that last night when the chalklings came.

And the Forgotten—oh, Master, the Forgotten.

Steady there, soldier, Wyatt was saying and sometimes it got scrambled up in Duncan's head. Senior soldier from the same squad or Forgotten, it bled together and he didn't know what was real anymore.

On the one hand, he felt the shift away from Joshua the previous day was strange: he agreed with Moreau that the move had cost them tempo. In a fight, tempo was everything. 

("Taking too much time, Kerr," Wyatt said.

Duncan scrawled the chalk circle and began to add to the chalklings to the bindpoints. Reckoning the dimensions by eye was easy enough by this point. The issue was the defenses.

A Line of Vigor hit his circle, and Duncan raced to repair it. But Kessen was fast and the two of them were locked in a war of attrition over the outlines of Duncan's circle. They'd never penetrated his defenses in the Academy, and Duncan glared as he patched his circle again and again and again.

"He's attacking," Matt commented. "And you're defending. Static defenses are dead defenses.")

Swapping from Joshua and the one who'd called himself a Forgotten [OOC: Gears] to Dan, who hadn't even spoken up, had cost them tempo. Yet at the same time, Duncan wondered if there was a point in expressing suspicion of Joshua right now. What did that gain them?

Frederick was confronting Joshua and Illwei and Nicole. And then there was the maddening business of no Forgotten kill. Duncan was trying to make sense of what it might all mean, though he had some theories. He wouldn't be opposed to going for Evan, which put him in the awkward position of agreeing with someone he was already suspicious of. But ultimately, he figured he was more unsure of that random bystander over there. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Kasimir
Extra " mea culpa

[StrikerEZ]

Frederick hated confrontation. It wasn't that he was a coward; he just didn't like the way that people would grow angry and yell and get way too close for comfort. Not to mention that they would shove him sometimes and maybe even worse, and well, Frederick had never been much for physical fighting. But his brother, Duncan, could be here right now. In the most terrifying time of their lives. And Duncan had gone through so much worse than Frederick could ever imagine. If Duncan could get through this, Frederick could.

So he gathered evidence. Had conversations with people, even when the thought of that terrified him. He began to paint a picture in his head of who might be Forgotten among them. It was all making sense. So he came forward, letting everyone know what he thought, accusing three people of being Forgotten spies amongst them.

And they fought back. Not even just the ones he accused, but others as well. Most ignored what he had to say, true, but even those few who didn't ignore him were enough. He looked to Duncan for support, but he was just staring off to the side. He wouldn't be of much help today.