Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Gears]

The Servant of the Mad God smiled as he watched the corpse dance. It seemed that the chalk dust made it do his bidding, perhaps because he had made it. Fascinating. "Pretend to be the person you were before," he ordered, and the corpse obeyed, marching onwards in a facsimile of life. No one noticed the change. He would have thought the bloodstains and the torn shirt were a tad bit obvious, but humans seemed determined to be oblivious. Wonderful. Yet another note for his psychology notebook.

---

When you think about it, the lack of a kill makes perfect sense. Killing a Rithmatist does nothing, but X-ing a Rithmatist ups the Strength. As such, the elims would rather watch us kill ourselves in fits of madness and bloodlust. A bit boring, to be sure, but sensible. Less information for the village, and more voices to disrupt the field. A roleblock or protect could be valid, but don't put perfect stock into it. Unlike in other games, there is an actual incentive not to kill people. [Or maybe I'm an elim trying to obfuscate and confuse the roleblocker into not sharing out of fear of getting a villager X-ed [insert reference to MR46 here, Quinn]]

Change in Camp Supply: 

5 Chalk, 1 Bucket of Acid, 1 Bribe, 2 Spring-Powered Crabs, 2 Lanterns removed. 

Assume a mix [mis-X], 3 Defense needed at least, preferably 1 extra in case of roleblocks. RNG plan, remember to RNG which turn as well. Alternative: PM coordination, RNG turns. I would still prefer actual coordination, but alas, public opinion seems to disagree. 

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Gears said:

[insert reference to MR46 here, Quinn]

shhhh we don't talk about that right? It would be funny if I'd managed to block the N1 kill again, though...

2 minutes ago, Gears said:

Assume a mix [mis-X], 3 Defense needed at least, preferably 1 extra in case of roleblocks. RNG plan, remember to RNG which turn as well. Alternative: PM coordination, RNG turns. I would still prefer actual coordination, but alas, public opinion seems to disagree. 

RNG won't work this time because some people have used up their Chalk, either Defending or doing other things. We likely can't get an exact count of how many, meaning that we don't know what number to RNG with to ensure that we have enough Lines of Warding.

[Sart he/him]

Rule Clarification time

15 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

[OOC: Sart, just to confirm. A roleblock or protect would be reflected differently — we would be informed, aye?] 

Neither of those show up in the writeup.

Quote

If I block a kill with my Line of Forbiddance, will I be informed?

No, you will not be.

Quote

Will the Non-Rithmatist learn what Specialization they teach?

Yes, they will. The Specialization is chosen at random, but the Non-Rithmatist does learn which one they handed out.

Quote

When someone dies, are their items revealed?

No, they are not.

Quote

Where does the Lantern go in Order of Actions?

Forgot to put it in there. The Lantern goes after the Defense is determined, but before the Supply is looted. So, if you grab a Lantern during the Night, you won't learn how much Defense the Camp had that Night.

Night: Vigor, Forbiddance, Making, Warding, Clock, Lantern, Supply, Map, Steal, Revocation, Giving, Gun, Kill, Crab

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Quinn0928 said:

RNG won't work this time because some people have used up their Chalk, either Defending or doing other things. We likely can't get an exact count of how many, meaning that we don't know what number to RNG with to ensure that we have enough Lines of Warding.

Disagreeing here, cause with your Lantern and the amount of chalk left and such we likely can get pretty close. I doubt there was a lot of line activity other than Warding so a rough estimate likely would be safe, maybe a slight overestimate for the more paranoid players.

Also, Archer. I’ll post a reads list tonight (hopefully) which should have reasoning but I do think I’ve mentioned something before.

[Alvron]

8 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Alvron, you still have your map?

I did not use it and I haven't been told I no longer have it so one would assume I still have it.

[Quintessential she/her]

1 minute ago, Sart said:

Quote

If I block a kill with my Line of Forbiddance, will I be informed?

 

Huh. Well, it appears I wasn't the only one who used a Line of Forbiddance then. I didn't ask that : P

[Ashbringer he/him]

Unknown Order said they were planning on doing that.

[Quintessential she/her]

Oh, right. That makes sense then. 

[STINK he/him]

Illwei

[+Lotus she/her]

Could the Elims have just forgotten to put an action in? 

Edit: The forgottens forgot

Edited February 1, 2021 by Lotus

[Araris Valerian he/him]

Just now, Lotus said:

Could the Elims have just forgotten to put an action in? 

Possibly. It could be a valid strategy for the elims to just not kill, since they have an alternate win condition.

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, so, @Ashbringer @STINK why are you guys voting on Illwei? I agree that she’s probably an elim (I feel more strongly about her than Mat), but I’m curious what happened to convince you two of her guilt.

[STINK he/him]

stop trying to look like not an elim striker

[StrikerEZ he/him]

1 minute ago, STINK said:

stop trying to look like not an elim striker

?? I’ve been suspicious of Illwei since the end of D1. 

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

45 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

Camp Defense was 3.

I used a Line of Forbiddance (edit: on myself), which is my Specialization. If someone attacked me their action would have been negated... which might not have been reflected in the write-up. I'm not sure.

I used a Warding, and I think Kas is claiming using one, so that makes three. 

Edit: Didn't Mat use an acid? What's up with that? Or am I weird

Edited February 1, 2021 by The Unknown Order

[Quintessential she/her]

50 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

No chalk doesn't bode well.

Illwei.

18 minutes ago, STINK said:

Illwei

32 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Also, Archer. I’ll post a reads list tonight (hopefully) which should have reasoning but I do think I’ve mentioned something before.

9 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Okay, so, @Ashbringer @STINK why are you guys voting on Illwei? I agree that she’s probably an elim (I feel more strongly about her than Mat), but I’m curious what happened to convince you two of her guilt.

I'm gonna go to bed soon but a note before I do:

41 minutes ago, Gears said:

 

When you think about it, the lack of a kill makes perfect sense. Killing a Rithmatist does nothing, but X-ing a Rithmatist ups the Strength. As such, the elims would rather watch us kill ourselves in fits of madness and bloodlust. A bit boring, to be sure, but sensible. Less information for the village, and more voices to disrupt the field. A roleblock or protect could be valid, but don't put perfect stock into it. Unlike in other games, there is an actual incentive not to kill people.

Much as I dislike the idea that the elims would do this, since it shifts the whole point and structure of the game, Gears may well be right. The elims have exactly nothing to lose from not killing us--the more of us there are, the harder it is for us to find them. The more of us there are, the more mix's they can get. The fewer of us die, the less information we gain. And they don't have to reach parity this game.

It's also possible that they were blocked, targeted a protected person, or forgot to submit an action. But we seriously need to consider that they may just... not kill anyone. That would make it a lot more important for us to be careful who we exe. If you have solid reads against Illwei, or if she's acting the way she has in past elim games, or if something she said doesn't sit right with you (and the same goes for anyone else) then yeah, voice your concerns. But we can't afford snowballs, so joke votes and RNG votes and votes for no apparent reason are... probably not the best idea right now. I mean, I can't stop anyone, but... yeah. : P

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

I used a Warding, and I think Kas is claiming using one, so that makes three. 

Edit: Didn't Mat use an acid? What's up with that? Or am I weird

I used Forbiddance. That protects me, not the Camp. You plus Kas plus Mat = 3, so that checks out unless someone else claims to have drawn a Line of Warding.

Edit: Sorry for the double-post! I thought Unknown's was after mine : P

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Just now, Quinn0928 said:

I used Forbiddance. That protects me, not the Camp. You plus Kas plus Mat = 3, so that checks out unless someone else claims to have drawn a Line of Warding.

Edit: Sorry for the double-post! I thought Unknown's was after mine : P

I was being weird cause I thought we started at one, that explains it.

[Mat he/him]

I somewhat agree with Illwei but yikes that train looks ungood

Striker almost seems TWTBAW honestly I don’t know what to think about it

[STINK he/him]

10 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

?? I’ve been suspicious of Illwei since the end of D1. 

thats exactly what someone who doesnt want illwei to die would say

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

7 minutes ago, STINK said:

thats exactly what someone who doesnt want illwei to die would say

That's exactly what a skunk named STINK wearing a tinfoil hat would say. 

[StrikerEZ he/him]

Okay, so, evidence against Illwei (to be fair, this hangs on a few key assumptions, so if you disagree, this won't work for you).

Mat's getting close to dying. It's the last few hours of the cycle, and there hasn't been a whole lot of talk about shrekking anyone besides Gears, and that was mostly joke votes. Illwei (and to a lesser extent Quinn) start shifting the vote off of Mat and towards Dannex as more people come on and are unsure of the Mat shrek. There's weirdness about Illwei with regards to her thinking that it'd be suspicious to go for the Vigor book while going for it herself as well.

Now, here's the crazy part: I think Mat, Quinn, and Illwei are elims. Quinn said she thought that there wouldn't be any players who started off with Specializations that were from books that started off in the camp supply. Why would she think that? Because the elims have at least two players with Specializations to start off. Illwei started off with a Specialization (ask any of Burnt, Stink, TJ, or Kas), and wanted to get the Vigor Specialization, so we know she didn't start with that one. 

Now, obviously this all falls apart if Quinn and/or Illwei aren't elims, but I think it works. I'm honestly less confident about Mat being an elim, but think it's worth pointing out their defense of him in case one or both of them flip elim.

As for Mat's acid bucket? If he's an elim like I still believe him to be, then it would make a lot of sense to claim that to try and get pressure off of him. I wouldn't be surprised if an elim teammate of his (or maybe Mat himself) used a Line of Warding to cover Mat's trail with the acid claim. The lantern holders don't know who did what, just what the defense level was.

[Mat he/him]

Woah woah buddy halt that tinfoil  

26 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

There's weirdness about Illwei with regards to her thinking that it'd be suspicious to go for the Vigor book while going for it herself as well.

I mean, Illwei was kind of hard-claiming non-rithmatist at that point, so large grain of salt there... though if they have a Specialization that's pretty darn conflicting, is it not?

27 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Quinn said she thought that there wouldn't be any players who started off with Specializations that were from books that started off in the camp supply. Why would she think that? Because the elims have at least two players with Specializations to start off.

Why would Quinn say that if the elims are the ones with those Specializations? That seems kinda backwards from what makes sense, if the elims had Specializations they'd want to distract from those as much as possible.

29 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

Now, obviously this all falls apart if Quinn and/or Illwei aren't elims, but I think it works. I'm honestly less confident about Mat being an elim, but think it's worth pointing out their defense of him in case one or both of them flip elim.

I'd expect someone always to be against a shrek so suspecting the people defending me cause you elim read me probably isn't fair.

30 minutes ago, StrikerEZ said:

As for Mat's acid bucket? If he's an elim like I still believe him to be, then it would make a lot of sense to claim that to try and get pressure off of him. I wouldn't be surprised if an elim teammate of his (or maybe Mat himself) used a Line of Warding to cover Mat's trail with the acid claim. The lantern holders don't know who did what, just what the defense level was.

I used an Acid Bucket, so :P.

Anyway, that's quite the narrative you've created. Which falls apart in that 1. I'm village, 2. I think Quinn is village, 3. Illwei apparently relies on that.

Feeling better about not voting Illwei now. I probably would be okay with killing Striker...

[Ashbringer he/him]

I’m more suspicious of the switch from Illwei wanting Vigor (and semi-complaining at Books for taking it) to suddenly saying there was “no reason for a Villager to take vigor”. And then dancing around the issue when I tried in my chaotic way to push it. @Illwei

I got the Dannex counter going a good while after Illwei voted. A lot of people (Striker and Burnt vocally) seemed hesitant about killing either Mat or Gears along with me. I just made an alternate - which is perhaps something that I do too often. I did mention my opinion on killing neither in the massive group PM that Illwei decided to make, so Illwei... could have planted that as a seed? But I still took it, and I’m village, so that isn’t really much of a factor in suspicions of Illwei.

I’m also going to go look at what Archer said about Illwei-Connie, at some point. I’m a little suspicious of him grabbing the Bribe, but he did actually contribute a good bit D1.

[Mat he/him]

3 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

I’m also going to go look at what Archer said about Illwei-Connie, at some point. I’m a little suspicious of him grabbing the Bribe, but he did actually contribute a good bit D1.

I’m actually suspicious of Archer-Connie. Archer said to me in a PM that he thought one of Illwei/Connie was an elim and voted Illwei for... shaky reasoning at best.

Edit: Granted, most of my Connie read comes from our PM, so Archer might not have had anything anyway :P.

Edited February 1, 2021 by Matrim's Dice

[StrikerEZ he/him]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I mean, Illwei was kind of hard-claiming non-rithmatist at that point, so large grain of salt there... though if they have a Specialization that's pretty darn conflicting, is it not?

I don't see how this affects my point. I missed her apparently hard-claiming non-rithmatist, but that makes me even more concerned since she claimed in a group PM I was in that she has a Specialization. Why would she lie about that?

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Why would Quinn say that if the elims are the ones with those Specializations? That seems kinda backwards from what makes sense, if the elims had Specializations they'd want to distract from those as much as possible.

Because it's easy to forget that the assumptions you've reached with your team are assumptions that a villager couldn't reach on their own. It's a fair assumption to think that there wouldn't be players starting with Specializations from the books already in the supply...if you knew there were people who started off with Specializations that weren't already in the supply.

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I'd expect someone always to be against a shrek so suspecting the people defending me cause you elim read me probably isn't fair.

It's not that I suspect them because they defended you and I think you're an elim. I suspect them for their role in the defense for you and the counterlynch on Dannex.

5 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I used an Acid Bucket, so :P.

And no one can check that you actually did. Handy, isn't that?

Anyway, I completely understand if others agree with Mat over me. This is...a lot, but it makes sense to me.