Long Game 73: The Forgotten Coup

[Quintessential]

37 minutes ago, Illwei said:

smh big post does not a villager make smh :P. if spouting conspiracy theories and making wall posts was Village Indicative then I'd always be at the top of your trust reads :P.

meanwhile everyone's village reading me for exactly those two things

39 minutes ago, Illwei said:

Also why is my name here I have no clue what this is this was a conversation I was not in i am confused.

That was me not you lol Archer got the name wrong.

17 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

But feel free to watch me if you're worried I'm going to start disappearing lanterns.

this was the other reason I protected myself last Night : P not Ash specifically, but the fact that anyone with Chalk can take Items away from others. 

18 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The plan was to get chalk every day and Warding every night, like I did. Unfortunately we are now out of chalk. And it was a "if there's nothing better to do" plan, so I wasn't planning on always using it.

I must admit, I kind of assumed Chalk would be way more plentiful than it is just because it has so many uses and everyone starts with one at the beginning. Miscalculation on my part : P

[Random Bystander]

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I count... one vote on you? So I wouldn't say it's everyone. I bet you have like a 5% chance of dying today.

I was saying that I have suspicions of basically everyone, not that everyone has suspicions of me.

[Mat]

1 minute ago, Random Bystander said:

I was saying that I have suspicions of basically everyone, not that everyone has suspicions of me.

Yes, you were. Whoops.

Who do you have the most suspicions for?

[Random Bystander]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Yes, you were. Whoops.

Who do you have the most suspicions for?

Logically, everyone. No one seems to be doing anything too suspicious, and so I'm suspicious of everyone because of that. 

My gut intuition (Which is normally extremely wrong) says Archer or Illwei. I have no reasoning behind this, it's just what my gut (Which I already told you is usually wrong) says. My gut also says that you, Ashbringer, and Ventyl are not Forgotten. However, I don't really trust my gut, and so I honestly have no idea.

[---]

my gut's telling me it's time for lunch

Edited February 1, 2021 by Illwei

[Shard of Reading]

Sooo.... That took me way longer to read than it did, and I got way less from it than I should have.

Now, my very limited, and rather random thoughts.

What happened to dannex. I'm so sorry. That literally came out of nowhere, and I just don't like anyone who participated in that, (But I've learned through hard experience that my gut is basically always wrong, but I still want to trust it) Almost everyone just seemed to brush that off even though the reasoning was literally zip compared to what there was on Matrim. (I'm not saying I would have preferred to see mat go, I'm just saying that there was certainly more reasoning behind that exe.)

Also Mat, why do you keep linking Connie and Archer together. I've seen nothing that connects them whatsoever.

[Random Bystander]

Just now, Illwei said:

my gut's telling me it's time for lunch

Just so you know, I am not acting on what my gut says. I trust logic. Not my gut. Also, now I'm hungry.

Grace walked over to the corner with a bowl of soup in her hands. She sat down, and ate it quickly. She forgot to eat the previous night, and she was extremely hungry.

 

[Mat]

5 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

Also Mat, why do you keep linking Connie and Archer together. I've seen nothing that connects them whatsoever.

I don't know I honestly don't know I probably should just drop that

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

Gonna recap your reasoning real quick here
 - Illwei started a completely new wagon on a villager, despite it being v/v, because she wanted to look suspicious
 - Illwei flip flopped on Ash and Kas in the beginning to try and distance from her buddies which is essential somehow and yet also Ash is most definitely a villager
 - Illwei has been bad under pressure (psh I've been doing great under pressure smh :P)
 - Cagey answers (can I get quotes pretty please
 - Insonsistancies (Do ya mean the vigor book? already explained that, even talked to striker about it last turn. ask him. also thought I talked to you about it too? I'd have to double check our PM)
 -  Connie thing (that was a fish, which in some way worked because I now thing you and connie aren't e/e. didn't ever intend to want connie to die :P.)

did I miss something?

Going back to Archer, I... don't know why I hopped off so fast :P.

9 minutes ago, Illwei said:

my gut's telling me it's time for lunch

Good plan I'm gonna go eat now

[---]

also i gotta say I am having fun with my og note taking method of tons of sticky notes on my wall

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Illwei said:

1. waht? can you link this because I legitimately don't remember saying that Striker was more suspicious until today.

2. Hi I'm here confirming that you just slipped e/e with mat? :P.

3. It was 5/4 at the time btw, I believe.

4. Gonna recap your reasoning real quick here
 - Illwei started a completely new wagon on a villager, despite it being v/v, because she wanted to look suspicious
 - Illwei flip flopped on Ash and Kas in the beginning to try and distance from her buddies which is essential somehow and yet also Ash is most definitely a villager
 - Illwei has been bad under pressure (psh I've been doing great under pressure smh :P)
 - Cagey answers (can I get quotes pretty please
 - Insonsistancies (Do ya mean the vigor book? already explained that, even talked to striker about it last turn. ask him. also thought I talked to you about it too? I'd have to double check our PM)
 -  Connie thing (that was a fish, which in some way worked because I now thing you and connie aren't e/e. didn't ever intend to want connie to die :P.)

did I miss something?

5. I don't understand why this is a "village slip" because. anyone can use vote manip, no? not...just Elims. and- yeah I have no clue why you think that's a village slip please enlighten.

6. I think that TJ is saying that if we were to coordinate through PMs or whatnot, they would have to defend at one point or claim roleblocked or something like that. with this they don't even have to try

7. If we assume that this no-kill was intentional then I'd definitely expect that someone who protected today was an Elim. that's what I was thinking earlier. right. okay. Was thinking of not saying anything but like striker is tunneling so hard on me RN and that's not great when he's my top trust bc our PM is going

 

*I've edited the above post to add numbers and remove things I'm not responding to. 

1. Here's the link. You did a Striker/Matrim conversation analysis and concluded with "Okay anyways basically I see Striker more suspicious than mat here tbh." (source) and then you said "I think that Striker looks more suspicious technically out of all of it" (source)

2. *facepalm* To be fair, if Matrim flips elim, you should be looking at me for more than just that typo. I did not mean to say bus. Some other form of transportation such as a wagon or train is what I was going for. 

3. That's still close to a tie in a game with 23 people slinging votes. But you're right, for some reason the site meta is to give people a free pass to create ties, but not break them. But I consider them to be similar actions. 

4. This is the one I was thinking of. Best early-game strat for avoiding elimination is avoid attention. Stuff like this looked like avoiding criticism. I sense you've reached the point where you feel you've responded to all the accusations leveled against you, while I feel your explanations don't fully clear you, so we're at an impasse. For me it comes down to my reads of your activity seem sus, and your clarifications after the fact aren't sufficient to make me move my vote. *shrug* 

5. My theory is that no villager would vote manip D1 because the suspect pool is arbitrary anyway. Not worth it. The Thief has better things to do. So that leaves elims. The elims would coordinate in the doc, so all elims would know that one is coming. So elim!Ash knows there's no manip, or would at least double check, at which point he'd notice he was wrong and not make a post with an obvious lie. So it seemed like a villagey mistake. 

6. I'm open to a little more structured coordination later when we really can't afford to waste resources, but for now, I think the randomness will deter Elims from trying to stop it and very likely give us the near minimum we need to protect ourselves. The alternative is to do something like split us all into groups based on alphabetical order or something. We each name an individual who says they'll draw a line. Or we have one person PM a set number of people each cycle and tell them to draw the lines. The problem becomes then the drawers are known and can therefore be stopped. I'm happy with the random strategy until it fails, at which point we can discuss what went wrong. Failure may include over-use of chalk, by the way. But that shouldn't happen. 

7. And if you assume it was unintentional, then anyone who was protected is not an elim because they tried to kill them and failed. 

55 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

It wasn't the size of the post, but the content of it. A lot was basically what I thought about a lot of things. But apparently I've been thinking like an elim this game, so maybe not.

stawwwwp trying to pocket me. Alvron complimented I think Ash on D1 and I was this close to screaming pocketer 

37 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Mainly I took Revocation because of me going for the Shadowblaze. One less person who can steal it from me. And if someone else ends up with it I can take it back.

Leaning too heavily into a non-faction-related goal would be an elim strategy, but you've been helping the village in other ways so I'm still leaning null/village. 

37 minutes ago, The Unknown Order said:

The plan was to get chalk every day and Warding every night, like I did. Unfortunately we are now out of chalk. And it was a "if there's nothing better to do" plan, so I wasn't planning on always using it.

Hmm. Yup, I can see both a villager and an elim saying that. And a Thief, with a smirking emoji in white text. *checks for white text* 

17 minutes ago, Quinn0928 said:

That was me not you lol Archer got the name wrong.

^ my bad

1 minute ago, Random Bystander said:

Logically, everyone. No one seems to be doing anything too suspicious, and so I'm suspicious of everyone because of that. 

My gut intuition (Which is normally extremely wrong) says Archer or Illwei. I have no reasoning behind this, it's just what my gut (Which I already told you is usually wrong) says. My gut also says that you, Ashbringer, and Ventyl are not Forgotten. However, I don't really trust my gut, and so I honestly have no idea.

I'd say don't wait until you have a smoking gun. Trust your gut, that's how you get leads in this game. If you want to vote on me, I don't mind. (This only applies to Random. If anyone else does it, I will make you justify it.)

2 minutes ago, Shard of Reading said:

What happened to dannex. I'm so sorry. That literally came out of nowhere, and I just don't like anyone who participated in that, (But I've learned through hard experience that my gut is basically always wrong, but I still want to trust it) Almost everyone just seemed to brush that off even though the reasoning was literally zip compared to what there was on Matrim. (I'm not saying I would have preferred to see mat go, I'm just saying that there was certainly more reasoning behind that exe.)

Also Mat, why do you keep linking Connie and Archer together. I've seen nothing that connects them whatsoever.

Far as I can tell, people thought it was a v/v and decided to pick someone else. Lacking other good targets, they settled on an inactive, because they felt less bad killing them than someone participating more openly. I'm lowkey sussing you now because that's a villagey question to ask, but that had already been discussed, so it comes too late to be really villagey.

I said to Mat in our PM that I think Illwei is more sus than Connie when it came up. I think that's part of it. 

[Mat]

16 minutes ago, Archer said:

I sense you've reached the point where you feel you've responded to all the accusations leveled against you, while I feel your explanations don't fully clear you, so we're at an impasse.

This is what I was at last cycle, so I somewhat sympathize. That's unrelated though as I'm voting you :P.

17 minutes ago, Archer said:

I said to Mat in our PM that I think Illwei is more sus than Connie when it came up. I think that's part of it. 

...Somewhat yeah, but I admit it doesn't make much sense.

[Random Bystander]

29 minutes ago, Archer said:

I'd say don't wait until you have a smoking gun. Trust your gut, that's how you get leads in this game. If you want to vote on me, I don't mind. (This only applies to Random. If anyone else does it, I will make you justify it.)

I always end up losing games when I trust my gut, but okay... I'll choose later though. 

[Shard of Reading]

43 minutes ago, Archer said:

Far as I can tell, people thought it was a v/v and decided to pick someone else. Lacking other good targets, they settled on an inactive, because they felt less bad killing them than someone participating more openly. I'm lowkey sussing you now because that's a villagey question to ask, but that had already been discussed, so it comes too late to be really villagey.

Yeah, I knew it had already come up, but I still felt like I wanted to make my opinion heard.

[Mat]

17 minutes ago, Random Bystander said:

I always end up losing games when I trust my gut, but okay... I'll choose later though. 

Hey, I read mostly by gut, so no harm  Most of the time. Though if you have a choice it's probably better to make it known.

[Random Bystander]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Hey, I read mostly by gut, so no harm  Most of the time. Though if you have a choice it's probably better to make it known.

Uh... Okay. I'll do Archer then I guess. If I'm wrong, I blame my gut.

[Araris Valerian]

Not feeling well today, so I probably won't contribute much to discussion until tomorrow.

[+Lotus]

Somewhat a nonsense list of somewhat reads:

Illwei: Always end up reading em as village. Know em too well. So null I guess cause IDK

Quinn: da same

Araris: Idk thingy

Striker: A little sus but they always get killed early

Mat: I feel like if there is a Elim!Illwei Elim!Mat is a possibility but otherwise don't really think their elimy

Gears: The best nonsense partner ever.

Books: I don't really like how they said they didn't take an action last night. Admittedly I've been forgetting about rollover a lot, but... mmm just feels off

Stink: Best admin ever

Kas: Changed his profile picture again

[Ashbringer]

This is the OG Kas profile. He had this one before, he just switched it to something bluer, and now he’s switched back.

[+Lotus]

2 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

This is the OG Kas profile. He had this one before, he just switched it to something bluer, and now he’s switched back.

Yeah his profile pic looks like it would make a great crime boss

[---]

Big quote oop

58 minutes ago, Archer said:

1. Here's the link.

2. I did not mean to say bus. Some other form of transportation such as a wagon or train is what I was going for. 

3. for some reason the site meta is to give people a free pass to create ties, but not break them. But I consider them to be similar actions. 

4. This is the one I was thinking of. Best early-game strat for avoiding elimination is avoid attention. Stuff like this looked like avoiding criticism. I sense you've reached the point where you feel you've responded to all the accusations leveled against you, while I feel your explanations don't fully clear you, so we're at an impasse. For me it comes down to my reads of your activity seem sus, and your clarifications after the fact aren't sufficient to make me move my vote. *shrug* 

5. My theory is that no villager would vote manip D1 because the suspect pool is arbitrary anyway. Not worth it. The Thief has better things to do. So that leaves elims. The elims would coordinate in the doc, so all elims would know that one is coming. So elim!Ash knows there's no manip, or would at least double check, at which point he'd notice he was wrong and not make a post with an obvious lie. So it seemed like a villagey mistake. 

6. I'm open to a little more structured coordination later when we really can't afford to waste resources, but for now, I think the randomness will deter Elims from trying to stop it and very likely give us the near minimum we need to protect ourselves. The alternative is to do something like split us all into groups based on alphabetical order or something. We each name an individual who says they'll draw a line. Or we have one person PM a set number of people each cycle and tell them to draw the lines. The problem becomes then the drawers are known and can therefore be stopped. I'm happy with the random strategy until it fails, at which point we can discuss what went wrong. Failure may include over-use of chalk, by the way. But that shouldn't happen. 

7. And if you assume it was unintentional, then anyone who was protected is not an elim because they tried to kill them and failed. 

1) -__-. Firefox be like "you really wanna go ta pintrest?" me be like "wat" anyways lmao I really thought I posted that during the night lmao anyways oki :P.

2) Ye, I assumed that, but gotta point it out anyways though, ya know? ya never know :P.

3) Yeah you're not really defending your point here? I'm not a fan of ties. I am a fan of breaking ties tho? I don't find them similar in that way :P. there is no reason for an Elim to create a tie between an Elim and a villager unless they think that more people would follow them for some reason. Idk. Not knowing who is gonna die as village is always worse imo. even if it's the person you don't want to have died its better than it being completely random and not knowing where to go from there or whatnot idk.

4) Eh, well if my explanation can't satisfy u then i don't got nothin' because that's what I gots.

5) yeah i don't like that because it relies on village doing things like. just. not using vote manip? which. I mean it doesn't even rely on that, it- there wasn't even vote manip this round. so. Like, if there was then I'd be like "maaaaybe? that makes sense?" but there. wasn't even vote manip? so it's not like ash came to the thread after the Elims had blatantly used vote manip and been like "oh wat there's vote manip" which I mean that wouldn't be a slip at all either I- yeah this makes no sense but neither do any of your other points to me really so yeah have fun with that.

6) I mean this is kinda irrelevant to my point which was trying to clear up the miscommunication that seemed to be happening? I'm not arguing for or against anything, or like, asking you for your explainations? I've already read that discussion(s?) and like, I thought TJ's point was that there is no way to actually hold people accountable with RNG. the problem isn't actually having enough Defense, it's accounting for like, everyone's actions and whatnot.

7) "everyone' is kinda the wrong word here? I mean, yeah. someone was attacked then, but if there was no kill and people aren't alerted, there's like, nothing stopping an Elim from coming out and being like "I used forboding" or wonton, ya know? like, if there was a way to check then that'd kinda be bad for them but there isn't so they lose nothing and get to explain away things and this is where i say

yall, i know its kinda wierd to ask but can i like, ask that people don't protect urself? like, yeah kinda a suspicious thing to say but we get info from NKs and it doesn't up the chalklings defense. i know no one like, actually wants to die, but if you die then chalk goes back into the pool and like someone else can use it to defend if you don't. so yeah. my two cents or whatnot.

1 hour ago, Archer said:

but you've been helping the village in other ways

I really don't see it but uh go off ig

1 hour ago, Archer said:

This only applies to Random. If anyone else does it, I will make you justify it.

Archer

1 hour ago, Archer said:

Far as I can tell, people thought it was a v/v and decided to pick someone else. Lacking other good targets, they settled on an inactive, because they felt less bad killing them than someone participating more openly.

Well I settled on danex because he's usually super talkative and whatnot and it was terrible meta but it was all i had and i didn't wanna kill Mat and I still don't wanna kill mat but the fact that mine and mat's reads are so different this game like is that a reason I can sus him? :P. Matrim, where did my little sheepy go ;-;. had little to do with specifically being inactive because I'm not usually a contribution crusade person

Im spending like all my time tryna defend but I can't defend off

 - Striker, in a tunnel
 - Archer, who thinks he's single handedly solved the game :P.
 - Stink, who wants to kill me bc I'm not british >.( (did i use that right?)
 - Ventyl, who wants to kill me bc he doesn't wanna read through the thread and also thinks it's suspicious that I pushed connie (bc he thinks she's the thief??) even tho I didn't?
 - Ash, who is still confused about the vigor book

basically I don't like Ash off of this? no clue what Archer thinks he's done good for the village so I guess I'll wait for that because Ash is focusing so hard on that vigor book smh.

[The Unknown Ajah]

13 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Stink: Best admin ever

I think this is the only one we agree on. Have a upvote.

[+Lotus]

1 minute ago, The Unknown Order said:

I think this is the only one we agree on. Have a upvote.

Ooh an upvote! Thank you!

[The Unknown Ajah]

2 minutes ago, Lotus said:

Ooh an upvote! Thank you!

Here, have a shiny. 

[Ashbringer]

18 minutes ago, Illwei said:

 - Ash, who is still confused about the vigor book

basically I don't like Ash off of this? no clue what Archer thinks he's done good for the village so I guess I'll wait for that because Ash is focusing so hard on that vigor book smh.

You never gave me a straight answer. You’ve given “baiting” and “I forgot” as replacements for explanations far too many times for my liking.

 

...I tried to quote that and somehow highlighted the entire thing, and then my phone started reading it at the speed of sound and that’s my headcannon for how Illwei sounds now.

[---]

10 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

You never gave me a straight answer. You’ve given “baiting” and “I forgot” as replacements for explanations far too many times for my liking.

 

...I tried to quote that and somehow highlighted the entire thing, and then my phone started reading it at the speed of sound and that’s my headcannon for how Illwei sounds now.

I

I did tho?

I wanted book to keep it from elims, i say things in thread because the things i had said to people in PMs were getting nowhere and everyone was kinda like "oh ok" when i was like "ye I want that vigor book" which was kinda strange (lookin' at u, Archer :eyes:) and then so i say things in thread just to say them you know I don't need a plan all the time ya know I'm pretty much doing whatever this game ya know

I legit said both of those words a total of once :P. in one post :P.

also Ash you've been in vc with me i'm offend smh :P.

P.S

was looking through ur posts I found this

Quote

• Evil: Illwei (refusing to explain shifting super-Vigor stance)

and like just wanna clarify was not ever shifting? I was like "This isn't a village book" and then I was like "imma take this book yall back off" and then I was like "this isn't a village book" (haha.  pun?) so ye. the first one happened in a PM but striker can confirm it's there. pretty sure Archer can too. so like, was not ever shifting.

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Illwei