Mid-Range Game 42: The Auction of Lord Winsting

[Mist she/her]

Analysis tomorrow, next cycle. 

The God King, you should turn off Grammarly on 17th Shard. 

Should I stop reporting those? 

Edited May 27, 2020 by Mist

[The_God_King]

Well my post was deleted by Chaos... I wish I could remember exactly what I wrote. It took a bit to get it phrased right

Edited May 27, 2020 by The_God_King

[Mist she/her]

I think he'll put it back once it's fixed. Should I stop reporting those? 

Grammarly does not good stuff here.

Sorry. Kind of my fault. 

[Straw he/him]

What’s going on? It’s past midnight and my mind’s scrambled. I saw some post from TGK that got deleted. Also, Chaos is viewing the thread for some reason? Weird.

[The_God_King]

52 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I don't support all three lynches, and Karnage's back and forth has discussed several times. Even Orlok acknowledges that there's a point to it, as viewed in his review of post #177. He states that I made a good observation, though that doesn't make me more or less likely to be a Constable in that particular case. I have also stated several times that while I'm slightly suspicious of Straw, I am against lynching active voters early for a variety of reasons, and several other people are more suspicious than he. I have not posted any thoughts on the Sart lynch that I can recall, and I have said that some of TGK's stuff was shifty. That's one of three.

edit: Chaos is a benevolent god and was able to restore my post. Thanks!!

I'm seeing a bit of inconsistency in your play style. Which is interesting because that's the same reason that your voting for Karnage. As for Orlok's #177 he didn't see it as an indicator. I'm intrigued why that made it into your statement. You get upset at me for lurking but had spoken against lynching low activity players. You seem eager to jump at any opportunity to discredit other players and justify a lynch. The fact that you're always on the offensive in your comments doesn't feel like a villager move. This gives me a strong Elim read Pyro 

 

@Mist It's good to know but getting reported is never a good feeling

Edited May 27, 2020 by The_God_King
original post

[The_God_King]

2 minutes ago, Straw said:

What’s going on? It’s past midnight and my mind’s scrambled. I saw some post from TGK that got deleted. Also, Chaos is viewing the thread for some reason? Weird.

Grammarly breaks the quote function. Chaos is probably making sure I don't keep using it and tries to make sure no damage is done. Which is okay since it sounds like a pretty serious problem. I'm surprised Chaos took care of it so quick

Edited May 27, 2020 by The_God_King
oops double post, sorry

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

3 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Complains about too many posts. Mixes up village an eliminator names. Says eliminator team would be hilariously big with seven or eight people. Have muslynched for mixing names before. Worth watching. Agrees with Straw that team probably not bigger than seven or eight. Possible that on same team if evil, trying to sell smaller team? Mild evil

I wasn't complaining per se xD I was feeling overwhelmed while simultaneously being happy that there were a lot of posts since last QF I checked the thread like every 20 min every day cuz I had nothing to do that week haha.

I didn't mix up team names? I think the post you're referring to was this one?

Quote

to quote @Straw Why would they not be able to trust the people they scan if it says not Constable? omg yeah as I typed that out my tired brain realized it's probably cuz of bleeder right? Okay hopefully that's it cuz I'm tired and feel like I'm just making myself look stupid but I'm not gonna erase it cuz I wanna post something before the thread is like 5 pages long haha.

I was wondering why they wouldn't be able to trust someone if it said they weren't a Constable (elim) because that would mean they were a villager? But then I realized they were probably saying this because of the bleeder roles who wouldn't show up as a constable but you still couldn't trust them. Hopefully that makes sense.

Also the part about me agreeing with Straw about the team being not bigger than 7 or 8 is incorrect. Because I said I hadn't thought about how large the elim team would be with this many players and it is laughable how many there probably are because we have freakin 30 players in a MR which stills is amazing and weird. But yeah I literally quoted Striker in that same post where he mentioned the possibility of 9 elims and I said it was a very good point and one to keep in mind. If anything I'd think 9 a much more accurate sum of elims and want to be on the larger guesstimation side because of the dispersal rule.

I'm almost done with my read through. Apologies, I'm a slow reader.

[Karnage]

Okay so I tried to quote our conversation but it wouldn't save as I went from page to page. 
For those confused about why I am up for the lynch here is why.

9 hours ago, Karnage said:

14 hours ago, Karnage said:

On 5/25/2020 at 9:31 PM, Araris Valerian said:

How is Sart's "bandwagon-y attitude" any different from mine? I explicity voted on Karnage because he already had a vote. There is a 3-vote minimum for the lynch this cycle, and because it is very rare for any obvious AI stuff to come up cycle 1, some bandwagoning is necessary for a lynch to happen at all. I'm usually uncomfortable voting on Straw, since his village playstyle sends to set me off consistently. But I think having lynch pressure this early is good, and I'm somewhat suspicious of Xino for trying to remove that pressure so quickly.

On 5/25/2020 at 5:52 PM, Araris Valerian said:

I’m here and I think I’ll vote on Karnage, as someone who is only poke-voting and who also already has a vote.

@Araris Valerian So you are perfectly fine with joining a bandwagon but not with poke voting. Interesting. To me this kinda seems like I am missing something in the equation that would make this make sense. But, I do not think I am. I believe this is very incongruous. Not that by itself it is suspicious. By its self I find it NAI but...

If Sart is elim and you are too, then this might make sense. It seems to me like poke voting and bandwagon are mutually fair game if one person like one then they will probably like the other. But from these statements you are putting a vote on someone that is poke voting but then later turn around to defend someone you haven't even had contact with in the thread, for being a bandwagon. This kinda screams (or at least by my logic) that you two are both elims and you were trying to defend a fellow elim.

But, you don't have any votes so I will redact my vote on TGK and put it on Sart because if he gets lynched then you will look pretty guilty to everyone else.

If this doesn't make any sense that please respond!!!!!!!! And tell me well my logic went astray.

-Karnage

 

Striker then goes ahead and says that he doesn't understand why I would not vote on Araris who he think I am suspicious of.

I responded with saying that I think Sart and Araris are connected, if one turns out to be elim than the other might be elim as well. Since Sart already had votes (and me thinking that we were getting close to the end of the cycle) I decided to place a vote on them since either way it would prove or disproves by theory no matter which one was lynched. 

Okay I think I have the quoting problem linked. Here it is- the conversation.

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

What really set me off though was the fact that Karnage went through a whole two paragraphs of saying why he doesn't trust Araris and then decides to vote Sart because he can't get Araris lynched. First off all, I don't understand why he's linked Sart and Araris like he has, and also, why not vote where your suspicions are? Isn't voting for Sart also bandwagoning, like you claim Araris is doing? Voting on someone you're actually suspicious of, even if it doesn't seem like a lynch could form on them yet, is much better than voting on someone that you think is going to get lynched.

 

8 hours ago, Karnage said:

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The thing is, poke votes are entirely useless, especially with a 3-vote minimum this first cycle. I’ve said this before in other games, but I think as a community our C1 votes should be a bit more “stabby” rather than “pokey”. 

Why stab with nothing to go off of in the first half of C1? Why not get some discussion going (with poke votes) then use the later half of the cycle to stab based off of more context? I don't think we need to bandwagon right of the gate, why not have some reason for it. 

-Also I disagree poke votes aren't useless, first its starts friction between two people. Things start to move, then once everyone is discussing you can actually "stab" vote someone.

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Sart because he can't get Araris lynched.

Like I said before, what would be the point of voting Araris if nothing is going to happen. There was already a train starting on Sart, if Sart turns out to be elim then that points towards Araris being elim as well. 

My claim is not against Araris joining a bandwagon, my claim is that Araris's actions are incongruous. Why completely against  poke votes but defend someone for bandwagoning. 

I don't mind the bandwagon.

8 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

To me, it just seems like Karnage was trying to throw shade at Araris, but didn't want to put a vote there because he'd rather guarantee a lynch somewhere else.

Thats exactly right, there no point on putting a vote on someone unless there is a good chance at getting them lynched. Sart was already on the block so therefore if they die and show their elim then that proves the shade on Araris.

This is when Pyro jumps in. Yay!

7 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

8 hours ago, Karnage said:

Thats exactly right, there no point on putting a vote on someone unless there is a good chance at getting them lynched

And yet you were just talking about how Poke Votes are useful.

Emi Karnage.

It feels like you're just saying whatever'll keep you alive longer, not caring about remaining consistent or having an actual point.

 

7 hours ago, Karnage said:

7 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

8 hours ago, Karnage said:

Thats exactly right, there no point on putting a vote on someone unless there is a good chance at getting them lynched

And yet you were just talking about how Poke Votes are useful.

I said that Poke votes are useful in the beginning, but towards the end of the cycle based of the content of the thread there is not a point to poke voting.  

I feel as if I have a point, and yes I do think I am being consistent from my point of view. 

If I die, I cannot wait to see if my logic works and Araris and Sart along with possibly Stryker and Pyro being elims. I guess that no matter what a role is revealed, and if I die then you all will see that others are more suspicious than me. 

My guess is that there are a few villagers along with a few elims that have votes on me not all on one side.

Anyone know when the cycle ends?

Side note for Araris-

7 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The thing is, the "discussion" and "friction" amount to the following: I vote on player X. Player X makes a post to the effect of "I'm here, but I don't really have any suspicions". I move my vote to player Y and repeat. At the end of the day, we didn't learn anything.

The think is me poke voting provoked you to vote on me, which lead me along with other post to create a theory, in which other people have joined the conversation on. Now whomeever is lynched we will have tons of posts to go off of in the future through the connections made. All of which came from me poke voting. How funny that seems to work out doesn't it @Araris Valerian.

7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I don't like how Karnage got so many votes so quickly, so I'm getting off his lynch. If someone wants to give me a vote count, that would be appreciated. =)

Wouldn't the sudden votes on me indicate that elims are coordinating their votes on me in their doc?

7 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Karnage's posts seem like they're just saying whatever they need to for the moment, not justifying themselves, but coming up with excuses for their contradictions after the fact.

Not sure where the contradictions are, next time do you mind saying where my contradictions are instead of just saying that there are contradictions. There are plenty on new players (so be careful) you don't know if they are going to look for the seeming contradictions found in my posts. 

7 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

I explained my vote for Karnage earlier, but I'll summarize it real quick: I feel like Karnage isn't trying to vote on anyone he finds suspicious, just trying to vote on someone who he thinks will get lynched. While that's a valid strategy, it's usually best to back something like that up with suspicions, so you're not just blindly following the whims of bandwagons. I'm also not a fan of him linking Sart and Araris together so much. I don't really see the connections he sees between those two, and it seems like he's trying to set up the lynch on Sart to either frame or clear Araris (depending on how Sart flips). 

Not sure how you've not seen the link. Why don't you read this post real closely. Aren't we all setting each other up so we see what they flip, and then make connections to try to find other elims. Not sure why what I am doing is so suspiscious if this is what makes a Mafia/ Sanderson elimination game.

 

6 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

If they're an elim, maybe the whole 'team' thing could have been an attempt to connect Sart and Xilo because Sart was getting voted on and they wanted to make Xilo look innocent/guilty (depending on which way Sart flipped). That's the only real explanation for their actions I can think of.

First of all (I've not said anything about Xilo all game) I was talking about Sart and Araris. Second, why can't I post about what I am suspicious about? If my suspiscioun comes to fruiton and we find out that one or the other is guilty and the village is that much ahead. Why vote on me based of something that all of us are trying to do here. (try to make sense out of very little) 

 

3 hours ago, Sart said:

I'm going to vote on Karnage to save my own skin,

And ther is a vot to save their own skin.

 

3 hours ago, Straw said:

I sound defensive: First of all, you know I'm defensive, and that I'd push back regardless of alignment. I don't see why I shouldn't be defensive, considering how weak the case against me is.

Hallelujia- this sounds so much like how I feel with my own situation.

 

In conclusion - Originally I was just semi- suspicious or Araris and Sart but as push-back all of the sudden happened with so many votes going on me for just trying to explain my reasoning behind my suspicion. Now I wonder if all the push-back is coming from some elim teamates with a a villager sprinkled in. 

As of right now(for me) these people are suspisious

Pyro

Stryker

Emi- Weird bandwagon- that had no explanation

Araris

Sart

With Village vibes coming from 

Straw (for now)

 

For some reason I cannot see any of Orlocks posts (only the quotes)

This was a very long post that took about and hour (because of many deleted parts as I transition through the five pages).

[Furamirionind]

Ok, I'm mentally exhausted, but my essay was just postponed by 2 more days, so I'm going to procrastinate a bit and do some analysis before the end of the cycle.
And the Shard just deleted everything I had... sigh

I'm going to look over the 4 main people up for the lynch. It's worth mentioning that the votes are dangerously close, so up to 3 people could die from this lynch if we don't consolidate the votes somewhat.

Karnage:

Spoiler

NAI

NAI

Sharp turn from asking for Wilson to change to saying it sounds like fun. Slight elim.

Why are you voting on TGK? You gave no reasoning.

Took a lot of words to explain something fairly simple.

I don't understand the logic here. The thing you seem to be missing is what is in Araris' post. Did you not actually read it?

You are going after Araris hard, but you're vote is on Sart?

Sure, but I don't see why Araris and Sart are so definitively on the same team.

Not sure what you are saying here

Anyways, elim read on Karnage. I voted him as a joke originally, but throughout the turn has done plenty suspicious, I think.

TGK:

Spoiler

Hiding in a barrel. NAI. would probably lean elim normally but this is TGK.

Some RP to make sure he can post next cycle. Trying to ignore the game.

I disagree adamantly with almost literally everything in this post, but it strikes me similar to TGK in the QF.

I like this post. Reads as genuine to me. Though I do want to add that if you are going to make meta claims like you did in the previous post, you should also understand people that disagree with you will mention it. : P

Game clarification. NAI

I'm very glad TGK quoted SoR here, because I sat looking at this for 5 minutes debating with myself what I thought of it. Then read SoR's post, and I think TGK responded as well as any village/elim could have given that vote. @Shard of Reading what do you mean by "stall"?

you answered people's questions, but that is not mutually exclusive with what DeTess is saying. Actively trying to avoid suspicion. Slight elim read.

Some solid thoughts. Not much, but this seems like village TGK to me. I think elim!TGK just ignores the thread. Also worth noting no one has said anything in his defense at all. While TGK's teammates wouldn't really need to as there isn't really a ton a pressure to vote him, it's still worth noting.

Idk what to think of this. It seems kind of reactionary, though that's how he played in the QF.

Just ninja'd me with a vote on Pyro. There is a clear progression in TGK's playstyle this game, and I'm kinda liking it. Not voting on him.

Ok, I was going to look into Sart and Straw, but I've been working on this for 2 hours, have other stuff to do tonight, and have to get up early, so I'm pulling the plug on this post here.

Straw
Karnage

[The Young Pyromancer he/him]

52 minutes ago, The_God_King said:

'm seeing a bit of inconsistency in your play style. Which is interesting because that's the same reason that your voting for Karnage. As for Orlok's #177 he didn't see it as an indicator. I'm intrigued why that made it into your statement. You get upset at me for lurking but had spoken against lynching low activity players. You seem eager to jump at any opportunity to discredit other players and justify a lynch. The fact that you're always on the offensive in your comments doesn't feel like a villager move. This gives me a strong Elim read Pyro 

On that section, he was discussing whether or not the point I made affected his read on ME, as evidenced by the fact he rated the post NAI. I could have interpreted that wrong though. For low activity players, I don't recall that. I've made several posts about how I don't like lynching HIGH activity players though, which is probably what you're remembering. For the offensive bit, you'll recall there was a big blowback when I said I was going to be posting less this game, which was actually a decision I made before joining. So I posted more, but wasn't sure what to post about, and there was suspicion on me, so I was defensive. THEN people said I was too defensive, and so I should be more offensive. And now you're saying I'm too offensive. I guess I just should settle in the middle? Is that what people are telling me? Id even k anymore LOL.

[Araris Valerian he/him]

1 hour ago, Karnage said:

The think is me poke voting provoked you to vote on me, which lead me along with other post to create a theory, in which other people have joined the conversation on. Now whomeever is lynched we will have tons of posts to go off of in the future through the connections made. All of which came from me poke voting. How funny that seems to work out doesn't it @Araris Valerian.

I think we'll have to agree to disagree about this.

[Elkanah he/him]

Well played everyone! *They can't contribute if they can't keep up* *laughs evilly*. But seriously though. There is sooo much here. Props to anyone keeping up enough to draw lines from one person to another. I suspect that at least one of the four on the block is a constable, but I don't know which it would be. Straw doesn't seem bad to me. TGK sounds like TGK. Karnage's last post sounded pretty sincere to me. And I don't remember who else is up for the Lynch. 

Gaaahh I have to be up for work in sixish hours. Sorry, probably no vote from me this cycle. I'll do better on the next one.

Edit: sorry, Sart, for leaving you off before. Of the four you'd probably be my vote. As it is I'm not sure you've done anything that suspicious, though, so I'll leave off for now.

Edited May 27, 2020 by Elkanah

[Kynedath]

9 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The thing is, poke votes are entirely useless, especially with a 3-vote minimum this first cycle. I’ve said this before in other games, but I think as a community our C1 votes should be a bit more “stabby” rather than “pokey”. 

Also, there’s a little more depth to the scenario than you give it credit for. Certainly there is some interaction between Sart and myself here. However, as I’ve already mentioned, we have very little to go off of C1, so just because I find you a better lynch target than Sart doesn’t mean that I wouldn’t be fine lynching Sart tomorrow, if I felt it necessary. In point of fact, I also am mildly suspicious of Sart for voting on Straw, since Straw’s village play style has been noted several times in last games as setting off people’s gut reads.

I’m also going to look for somewhere new for my vote, since it doesn’t seem like enough of the thread is engaging in these two wagons for them to be super useful.

The bolded part of this post looks to me like Araris is trying to distance themselves from Sart after they became a more viable lynch target. And like they're trying to do it in a subtle enough way that they wouldnt be noticed.

4 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Check again. I don't know about the rest of your list, but I'm actually neutral on straw. Yeah, he was after me for a bit, but he actually explained what he wanted me to do. He's been consistent, which is my big concern with Karnage, and he's explained what he wants me to do instead of just saying he's suspicious of me, unlike Orlok. He's good enough that it could all be fake, and there are some other problems with him, but right now lots of others are worse IMO.

I also don't think that you should be specifically looking for people to tell you what to do in this game. That feels real off. So between those two things I;m suspicious of Pyro. There is more stuff than that mostly outlined by TGKs suspicion, but then Pyro answered them and I am not quite lucid enough to look at that properly.

I'm heading off for the night, see y'all in the morning!

[Araris Valerian he/him]

4 minutes ago, Kynedath said:

The bolded part of this post looks to me like Araris is trying to distance themselves from Sart after they became a more viable lynch target. And like they're trying to do it in a subtle enough way that they wouldnt be noticed.

I was trying to distance myself from Sart, since he hasn't done anything to make me trust him. 

[Zillah she/her]

On 5/26/2020 at 0:14 AM, Arraenae said:

Thoughts on Straw, because he has a lot of votes now. Probably will not get to thoughts on Karnage before I have to sleep.

Beware lots of posts below.

  Hide contents

Generally for me clarifying misunderstandings of rules is NAI. Basically argues against taking possible WGGs seriously, which at best tells us that IF Straw is a constable THEN his team is not going to do a WGG.

Blah blah distribution talk. Typical D1 we-have-nothing-to-talk-about stuff. NAI.

Remember the days when Straw was a new player? Now he's the one giving advice to the new players. He's grown up so much...

It'll be interesting to look back on this once we know either Straw's or Araris's alignment. For now, it could be a random poke, it could be voting on a teammate with a vote that can easily be retracted. NAI right now but good to look at later.

Honestly, poke votes have very little reason behind them anyway, so I'm not sure that a faulty reason for a poke vote in the first half of D1 is worth jumping on.

Asking for clarification and stating a suspicion. Interestingly, no vote on Xino. This is the type of stuff that poke votes get retracted for, so votes can be placed on people who do this. Could be a sign of a Straw/Xino team.

Looks like Straw's getting bogged down in an extended argument here. Still, I like his stated strategy, it fits mine. Slight village read for this.

Claims that Matrim is an elim.

Honestly, Straw here is giving me Old!Orlok vibes here, with how much he's talking and pushing other people to comment and trying to get firm stances out of them.

Suspicious of Xino... but he still hasn't dropped a vote on him by this point. Why?

Pushing for more reads out of people.

And finally the Xino vote. Which makes Straw/Xino seem a little less likely, though I will say that at the time this vote was made, it seems unlikely that a lynch train would form on Xino, so it could be distancing done the moment it was deemed to be safe. Straw is making a lot of statements here about alignment and lynching him would give us a lot of info, but honestly, I'm interested in this new Straw. Maybe it's not that new, maybe I missed it from my spot of hiatus, but I want to see where he goes. If he gives this much info in one day, how much more could he give us if we waited a few cycles before killing him?

Verdict: I want to keep Straw alive. He's an active player prodding info out of reticent players and he's reminding me of some of the old guard. The sheer amount of reads he's putting out reads as mildly villagery, too, and I think discussion will be benefited a lot by keeping him alive to talk. If he winds up being that much of a threat to the constables, they'll probably end up killing him, and if not, we can take a closer look at him. Sart. I disagree with what he says about Straw, and between Karnage and Sart, the RNG picked Sart. Sorry, not sorry.

I know ties end with both parties being lynched. Guess the posters after me are really going to be able to make the choice, eh? Consider this a Chinese Fire Drill of sorts.

At this point there were five pages of posts (which is a lot!) and I think there was more than ample evidence to make a more educated guess than "RNG", so I feel like this could be a less experienced elim using this as a way to possibly have a kind of "safe vote" for the cycle.

22 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

Just popping in real quick to say I’m confused by this.

Also confused by the suspicion on Straw. His posts haven’t read very elim-y to me. They read like Straw has been sounding in every game I’ve played with him in the last few months. Very analytical, trying to get reads out of people, tends not to back down much. Granted, I do think Straw is a good enough player to keep that same tone even as an elim, but I’m going to go with Occam’s razor here and say that if I think he’s a villager, the simplest solution is that he is one. (Also, other people could use the razor for themselves and decide he must be an elim; that’s perfectly valid).

I don’t feel comfortable making a vote right now because I don’t really have any other reads on anyone else. Plus it’s almost 3 am and voting right now seems like a bad idea.

This post feels very on the fence and back and forth, I don't quite know what to make of it other than maybe trying to stay in the middle ground to avoid being called out for strong opinions.

22 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I'm in Board meetings all until the evening today, but in the interests of getting another comment out before I sit down to do a proper analysis this evening:

A significant part of the discussion this cycle has been on Straw. We've had a string of players vote on him, and a set of players come to his defence.

A day one lynch should always be about information gathering. As much as I've been incredibly impressed by Straw's activity and engagement, the number of interactions he has had with other players suggests to me that we could generate a significant amount of information on D1 by lynching him at this point.

I know infolynching has been discussed many times this cycle, but I felt like I should put my stance into the mix. I believe that gaining information should be a part of your reasoning for who you lynch, but not the sole reason. It is a factor, but if you make it the entire reason then the eliminators can quickly and fairly easily corrupt the information you may be getting.

10 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

 Voting on someone you're actually suspicious of, even if it doesn't seem like a lynch could form on them yet, is much better than voting on someone that you think is going to get lynched. To me, it just seems like Karnage was trying to throw shade at Araris, but didn't want to put a vote there because he'd rather guarantee a lynch somewhere else.

I disagree with this statement in this instance. Karnage's suspicion seems to involve Araris and Sart as an elim pair, and of the two Sart is clearly on the chopping block. So I can understand that they would want to put their vote on someone they thought was suspicous, especially since they can use the results to further analyse their suspicions of Araris.

9 hours ago, The_Archivist said:

Sart(4): Xino, Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim's Dice
Straw (3): Wilson, Sart, Fura
Karnage (4): Araris, StrikerEZ, Emi, Pyro
The God King (3): Experience, Shard of Reading, The_Archivist
Furamirionind (1): DeTess
Xino (1): Straw                                        Pyro (1): Orlok

As far as I can tell, this is the updated vote count. I vote for The_God_King.

Why did you vote for the god king? @The_Archivist

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Also, it's D1. No one is going to have perfect reasons.

I don't like how they continuously avoided backing up their vote on Straw. They are right that there is not going to be perfect reasons, but Straw has been very active and there is a ton of pages of information and posts, so I think that they should have some reasoning and logic.

4 hours ago, little wilson said:

joeeeee dost thou have an officially count of the stabby stabs?

This made me smile, I will forever think of them as Stabby Stabs!

 

Ninja'd by Kynedath and Araris Valerian

[Coffeecat she/her]

UGH

160 posts since i last saw.

No way i can keep up with that.

sorry i dont have many reads, and therefore dont want to vote yet

 

RP later

[The_Archivist he/him]

26 minutes ago, Zillah said:

Why did you vote for the god king? @The_Archivist

Because of this:

10 hours ago, The_Archivist said:

TGK: They barely posted, and that was mostly to make sure they aren't sleeping next cycle and to explain themselves afterwards. Light elim read.

I found him more suspicious than Sart, and at the time it looked a possibility that both of my suspects will be lynched if I voted for him, which seemed like a good idea. Sart's last post gave me a village vibe I can't really explain, but for now, I have a neutral read on him, so I'll keep my vote on TGK for now

[A Joe in the Bush]

Attention Miscreants and Liars, this is the Vote count that I have right now:

Fura (2): DeTess, Straw
God King (3): Archivist, Experience, Reading
Karnage (6): Araris, Emi, Fura, Pyromancer, Sart, Striker
Matrim (1): Hemalurgic
Pyromancer (1): God King
Sart (4): Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim, Xino
Straw(2): Orlok, wilson

Not voting (11): Brightness, Bugsy, Coda, Devotary, Dot, Elkanah, Hammond, Kynedath, Mist, Silberfarben, Zillah

If any of you are listed incorretly, speak now or die in pieces. Also, you have about 2 hours left to speak.

[DeTess she/her]

Sheesh, activity this cycle reminds me of the first post-championship game, which is always crazy. Actually, it almost reminds me of the championship game itself, but that game managed to get as much pages of content C1, with twice the amount of posts per page, on half the players, so we aren't quite there yet

10 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Exceed parity by cycle 4? My analysis said that lylo would be C5, so C6 would exceed parity? Am I misreading my own analysis? I think you are though.

If I'm not misreading horribly, your analysis shows they can disperse then. But by that same analysis, there's 20 people left in total C4, which means a 10-man elim team has parity that cycle, or the cycle afterwards if there's 9. Not being able to disperse yet is less of a problem if they have de-facto control of the lynch.

6 hours ago, Sart said:

Well, you can tell I'm back to being a villager based on all the suspicion I've gathered. Somehow I'm more trusted as an eliminator than I am as a villager. I'm going to vote on Karnage to save my own skin, but I've got a village read on them, so this is awkward. Plus, if they flip village this is just going to draw more suspicion on me. Its unfortunate, but a 80% chance of a villager death is still better than a 100% chance. Straw, I'm still getting the same vibes I got when you were a serial killer. However, it appears that the majority of players do not suspect you. Actually, I'm going to make a tally on this:

This post really bothers me. I can see a villager moving their vote to ensure they survive, but I don't see them moving it someone they actively think is village, especially where there's quite some time left for them to get an actual suspicion out there. Add to that the hedging/lampshading on karnage flipping village and I'm now pretty suspicious of Sart (fura).

1 hour ago, Kynedath said:

The bolded part of this post looks to me like Araris is trying to distance themselves from Sart after they became a more viable lynch target. And like they're trying to do it in a subtle enough way that they wouldnt be noticed.

Wasn't that subtle, as I noticed it as well

Also, the amount of effort Orlok is putting into making those lists is staggering. It makes me want to just read him as village and be done with it, but I could see elim!orlok (and definitely bleeder!orlok) doing so. At least that list makes it easy to test his analysis against the result of actual lynches, which should make it easier to determine his alignment once we're a couple of cycles in.

edit:

9 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

With regards to your views on new player confusion, I agree that it can be faked, absolutely. I'm not sure that it can be faked well easily. This is where judgement and gut come in, I suppose, and my judgement tells me that the confusion from the two of them was genuine.

I'd say I did a reasonable impression of a new player during an anonymous game a while back that had some people fooled at least. I'm getting fairly genuine vibes from Emi though, so if its faked it's done really well.

edit 2 electric boogaloo:

I'm also getting more suspicious of Fura. The way they pointed out that no one has perfect reasons for voting C1 feels a bit hedgy/defensive, as if they're trying to cover themselves for a bad lynch outcome.

11 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Something about your paragraph about Araris and Sart is throwing me off, though I'm not sure why exactly. But it seems that you are assuming Araris is an elim, then clearing others based on that, then saying Araris isn't actually an elim.

That was more general musings on what that interaction meant for their alignments. As neither Sart nor Araris have been lynched yet, I can't do anything more than speculate, but it was an interesting connection that I noted and wanted to have written down in case I don't make it to the point where that speculation becomes relevant.

Edited May 27, 2020 by DeTess

[BrightnessRadiant she/her]

I don't have time to make a big post this cycle. Hopefully next one. right now to avoid there being a tie I'll go with Karnage

[A Joe in the Bush]

One AM has ended. Give me a minute to get Two AM up.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Two AM:

Galdo held one hand in the air, silently begging for calm as he dumped more Brass flakes down his throat. His brother Calo let go of his ankle and stepped back, shaking his head to recover from the Nicrobursted Soothing Galdo had just unleashed on the 40 or so people in the room. “I’m right sorry for having to remove all of your emotions like that, but I’m afraid I’ve been contracted to keep the good Lord Silberfarben alive, and I can’t do that when there’s a gunfight happening.” He scanned the crowd until he found his liege lord over by the buffet. The man was still alive, though he was desperately holding onto Nahr’s chest as the man bled out. Flogs was approaching the two as well.

“Lord ‘Farben can take care of himself.” A man stepped out of the crowd and doffed his hat. “Ah’ll pay ye double whatever that prick is offering you. Ah’m fairly certain that those murders were performed by a Faceless Immortal.” The crowd gasped and began to murmur among themselves as the man stepped up onto the table behind them. “Mah name’s Dowser, and I saw her attack. A blonde looker who moved faster than thought. She shot a man, then vanished into the crowd.”

“Then we must flee!” Lord Karn stepped forward as well, raising his cane. “We cannot fight a Faceless Immortal, we must leave while we still live!” The crowds voice increased as many people began to shove their way to the main entryway of the grand ballroom. They were cut off by the large Sooner Flogs jumping over their heads, and landing at the doors holding Nahr’s corpse.

“No one’s going no where.” He held up the corpse by the neck, letting blood drip to the floor. “I recognize this man. ‘E was a constable. We don’t know how many more might be in here. We’re not leaving until I’m sure there’s none left.” The crowd broke out into yelling, some at Flogs, others at each other.

A gunshot rang out, and everyone ducked, leaving only Lord Hadrian Penrod standing, a gun pointing upward. “Lord Karn tried to get everyone to flee.” He lowered his gun to point at Karn. “Obviously he wanted us to leave so that he could escape with evidence of all of your corruption. We should defend ourselves from him.”

Karn slowly stood back up, staring at his accuser. “I am no Constable Hadrian. I am just an honest man who fears for his life.”

“Fat chance!” Muriel sprung upwards and grabbed his arm as Variel snatched his cane. “I agree with Penrod, we need ta give this conner the axe!”

Karn stepped away from Muriel, pulling her toward him, then ducked and spun, lifting her off her feet and flinging her into Variel. The two collapsed as he snatched his cane out of the air. He settled back into a relaxed stance and looked back to Hadrian. “I am no Constable Hadrian. I am just a very skilled man, who will defend his right to life.

Lord Hadrian Penrod scratched his chin and examined the man. Finally he nodded, and opened his mouth to respond. He was cut off by a gunshot. A hole opened in his throat, and he staggered forward, falling to one knee, then to his side. 

The crowd burst away from him as more screaming broke out. Galdo hurriedly grabbed at his final vial of Brass flakes and ripped off the cork. He tipped his head back and poured the concoction into his mouth. Someone grabbed him by the hair and pulled him further backwards off the table. He gagged as he tried to yell, but a knife slipped across his neck, filling his throat. He dropped to the ground and barely got a glimpse of a shifting body running away from him before fading away.

 

Welcome everyone except Araris Valerian to Hour 2! He was a Criminal Gossip!
Karnage was lynched, but survived!
Awake players: 26
Votes required to Disperse the Party: 16

Vote Count:
Fura (1): Straw
God King (3): Archivist, Experience, Reading
Karnage (6): Araris, Brightness, Emi, Fura, Pyromancer, Sart, Striker
Matrim (1): Hemalurgic
Pyromancer (1): God King
Sart (4): DeTess, Karnage, Matrim, Xino
Straw(1): Arraenae, Orlok, wilson 

Dispersal Votes (1/18): Elkanah

Player List

 

ThatTinyStrawMan ( Straw )

Lord Silberfarben ( Lord_Silberfarben )

Xinoehp ( xinoehp512 )

To Be Determined ( Elkanah )

Shard ( Experience )

Qwerty Meep ( Shard of Reading )

Coda ( Coda )

Lord Reginald ( Kynedath )

Matrim ( Matrim's_Dice )

Lady Zephyr ( Zillah )

Archivald ( The_Archivist )

Lord Karn ( Karnage )

Variel ( StrikerEZ )

Lady Lumen ( Mist )

Emi ( Emi )

TBD ( BrightnessRadiant )

LenSaar ( Devotary of Spontaneity )

Lord Malikihal ( The_God_King )

The Young Pyromancer ( The Young Pyromancer )

Locke Tekiel ( Orlok Tsubodai )

Lady Arielle ( Arraenae )

Julius ( Dot )

Hammond ( Hammond42 )

Lord Gavin Verduex ( Hemalurgic Headshot )

mad watcher ( little wilson )

Lady Telina Maladroi ( DeTess )

Lord Laborn ( Bugsy )

Muriel Ladrian ( Furamirionind )

Lord Hadrian Penrod ( Araris Valerian ) Criminal Gossip

a smart guy ( Sart )

Edited May 27, 2020 by A Joe in the Bush

[DeTess she/her]

@Karnage, out of curiosity, why didn't you claim gambler? Given the D1 lynch situation, it might have caused the entire lynch to switch off you.

The kill on Araris is also interesting. I don't think they where particularly trusted, so its an odd kill for the elims. Bleeder likewise wouldn't really want to shoot for a potential elim, so I can't see Bleeder submitting that kill either, and if she had, ti would require the elim team to abstain from killing, which makes no sense (meanwhile, bleeder could go and scan people instead of killing, which is just as good fro them if they are not under pressure).

The only good elim motive for an Araris kill I can see is if they wanted the village to think things about Sart. The obvious play would be that they where trying to make Sart look good, but that might be obvious enough that they'd instead want us to think the opposite, so its mostly just a deep IKYK.

I think I'm going to put my vote back on Sart for now. I really don't like how they voted purely for self-preservation last cycle.

edit: @A Joe in the Bush, would a double-tap be mentioned as such? That is, if Araris had been the target of Both bleeder and the elims (and/or, if that had been an even a cycle, a bartender), would we be told?

Edited May 27, 2020 by DeTess

[A Joe in the Bush]

4 minutes ago, DeTess said:

@A Joe in the Bush, would a double-tap be mentioned as such? That is, if Araris had been the target of Both bleeder and the elims (and/or, if that had been an even a cycle, a bartender), would we be told?

Nope! Good question though. You get a cookie.

[The_Archivist he/him]

I was a little hesitant about this at first, but it's a fairly obvious thing, so I'll say it. Karnage is either a Gambling Tycoon or Flogs. If he is Flogs, we must not let him die. If Flogs dies, both the elims and the villagers will be much closer to losing, so we can work together on this. The bodyguards can protect him, but not twice in a row, which means they need to communicate somehow.

If a bodyguard trusts @little wilson enough to believe her claim that she is a gossip, he can PM her, saying he is a bodyguard. If more than one bodyguard does that, and she really is a gossip, she can send them a PM, telling them which one will protect this cycle, and who the next one. If only one does she can warn three people she thinks might be bodyguards, and tell them someone else is already protecting him.

I know this requires a lot of trust, and if she's Bleeder, she knows the identity of some bodyguards, which is horrible. I still believe it's our best bet. The odds of wilson being Bleeder are pretty slim, all things considered, and if she's an elim gossip, I would rather take that chance than let Bleeder target a potential Flogs. If she's a villager or elim of a different role, I don't think we actually lose enough to not risk it.

If Karnage is just a Gambling Tycoon, this is irrelevant, but I would rather not risk it, so I'm asking all bodyguards out there to try this plan.