Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals

[DrakeMarshall]

14 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

"Why'd you have to announce that right after I talked myself into thinking you might be evil?"

“Rollovet is best celebrated in the interstitial times,” Lord Pending explained smugly. “The turning point between dawn and dusk, between life and death, between the correct view and the wrong one. It’s Terrisian tradition.”

[Sart]

36 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Lord Pending slurped down the last of the brew in his cup and set it down on the porch in front of the inn. He picked up his cane, which hadn't been stolen while he'd been eating. He frowned. He actually kind of missed the thief.

"Gentlepersons, it is Rollovet."

"For those of you not as cultured or as well-traveled as myself, Rollovet is a traditional Terrisian holiday. The timing of Rollovet is very important: it happens at precisely midday. The balance between dawn and dusk is symbolic, you see. It relates to Terrisian mythology," he says sagely.

"I shan't bore you with all the details, but I think we should throw ourselves a little Rollovet celebration. To maintain positive morale and such. All of this doom and gloom and death is bad business, it’s important to create those moments of positivity."

"There are several traditional ways to celebrate Rollovet, but one of the very most classical methods is to suddenly reveal midway through the vote that you've caught a spiked."

"And, well, I’m a traditionalist to the bone,” Lord Pending declared. “So, Sirta." Lord Pending jabbed his cane in the man’s general direction with an accusatory air.

"I’m afraid I have to confess to following you around last night. But I’m glad I did. The mists gave me a power, you see, different from all the other ones we’ve heard about so far. It lets me hear people burning metals. If I listen very closely… It lets me hear if they’re spiked. A suitable ability, for a Lord such as myself. It is a Lord’s duty to have sound judgement, and clearly the mists recognize that.”

“And it turns out…” Lord Pending paused lengthily for dramatic effect before the reveal, “Sirta is a Spiked Coinshot!”

Sirta abruptly sobered up. He glared at Lord Pending.

"Coinshot? Yes. Spiked? No."

This was not how he envisioned this reveal going.

"I must admit, I'm curious about this gambit. If you're trying to draw a reaction out of me, congratulations, you succeeded. Now retract your false claim. If you're incapable of doing that, then I must assume that the Spiked believe they win if they win this vote."

[Aeoryi]

Just now, Sart said:

Sirta abruptly sobered up. He glared at Lord Pending.

"Coinshot? Yes. Spiked? No."

This was not how he envisioned this reveal going.

"I must admit, I'm curious about this gambit. If you're trying to draw a reaction out of me, congratulations, you succeeded. Now retract your false claim. If you're incapable of doing that, then I must assume that the Spiked believe they win if they win this vote."

"So the Coinshot has been revealed?"

[Sart]

Just now, Ookla the Resolute said:

"So the Coinshot has been revealed?"

"Correct. Considering the dream we had where the Spiked had a Seeker, I highly doubt his claim. Frankly, I don't think there is any Seeker in this village. They've merely outed me based on process of elimination. I would chastise the rest of you for loose tongues in your private messages, but it appears the point is moot. Furthermore, considering the risk inherit in this sort of play, I suspect Lord Pending is burning Pewter."

[Aeoryi]

Just now, Sart said:

"Correct. Considering the dream we had where the Spiked had a Seeker, I highly doubt his claim. Frankly, I don't think there is any Seeker in this village. They've merely outed me based on process of elimination. I would chastise the rest of you for loose tongues in your private messages, but it appears the point is moot. Furthermore, considering the risk inherit in this sort of play, I suspect Lord Pending is burning Pewter."

"Wait, so if my calculations are correct..."

Quote

2 lurchers

2 thugs

At least 1 Tineye

1 Coinshot

2 Villagers with no abilities (one being Revir)

1 Unknown ????

 

[Sart]

"Let me do the math for a second. There are currently eight of us. Let us assume two Spiked, with Pending as a Thug. In that case, it would be 6 v 2 today. I die due to a fake Seeker claim. It is 5 versus 2. Someone else dies to the Night kill. It is 4 villagers against two Spiked. Naturally, the village votes out the fake Seeker claim, but he survives due to his extra life. It stays 4 to 2, but then another dies in the Night, bringing it to 3 to 2. Then Pending would finally die, bringing it 3 to 1. Another Night kill, and we're at 2 to 1. That's not a guaranteed win, and makes me question this. Perhaps if Pending had a Coinshot as his partner, but even then, that's still a gamble with potentially some protection from Lurchers and Thugs out there."

"The worst case scenario is far simpler. There are three Spiked, and Pending is presumably not a Thug. Then the math gets much more tight. It would be 5 v 3 today. Again, I die to a fake Seeker claim. It is 4 v 3. They are able to successfully kill in the Night. It becomes 3 versus 3, and with ties not resulting in any death, they roll over to an easy victory. In that scenario, I fear any form of last minute swing, with someone saying they support me, before stabbing me in the back at the last second."

"The choices are now far narrower. Choose me, or choose Pending. One of us is certainly lying, and it is not me."

[Aeoryi]

41 minutes ago, Sart said:

"Let me do the math for a second. There are currently eight of us. Let us assume two Spiked, with Pending as a Thug. In that case, it would be 6 v 2 today. I die due to a fake Seeker claim. It is 5 versus 2. Someone else dies to the Night kill. It is 4 villagers against two Spiked. Naturally, the village votes out the fake Seeker claim, but he survives due to his extra life. It stays 4 to 2, but then another dies in the Night, bringing it to 3 to 2. Then Pending would finally die, bringing it 3 to 1. Another Night kill, and we're at 2 to 1. That's not a guaranteed win, and makes me question this. Perhaps if Pending had a Coinshot as his partner, but even then, that's still a gamble with potentially some protection from Lurchers and Thugs out there."

"The worst case scenario is far simpler. There are three Spiked, and Pending is presumably not a Thug. Then the math gets much more tight. It would be 5 v 3 today. Again, I die to a fake Seeker claim. It is 4 v 3. They are able to successfully kill in the Night. It becomes 3 versus 3, and with ties not resulting in any death, they roll over to an easy victory. In that scenario, I fear any form of last minute swing, with someone saying they support me, before stabbing me in the back at the last second."

"The choices are now far narrower. Choose me, or choose Pending. One of us is certainly lying, and it is not me."

pending

[Kasimir]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

"Correct. Considering the dream we had where the Spiked had a Seeker, I highly doubt his claim. Frankly, I don't think there is any Seeker in this village. They've merely outed me based on process of elimination. I would chastise the rest of you for loose tongues in your private messages, but it appears the point is moot. Furthermore, considering the risk inherit in this sort of play, I suspect Lord Pending is burning Pewter."

Everything else Onon would deal with when in less pain but this snapped him.

"STOP BLAMING EVERYONE ELSE FOR YOUR BAD DECISIONS MAN!" He shouted. "Who the hell else would kill a newcomer to this very village???"

It wasn't rocket bloody science. Onon had suspected if only because of that but held his peace.

[Aeoryi]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Everything else Onon would deal with when in less pain but this snapped him.

"STOP BLAMING EVERYONE ELSE FOR YOUR BAD DECISIONS MAN!" He shouted. "Who the hell else would kill a newcomer to this very village???"

It wasn't rocket bloody science. Onon had suspected if only because of that but held his peace.

Apparently, in a world where guns were a thing, he had done this to the past version of Violet. Such could be expected from him.

[Sart]

"Right then. More analysis is required. If I die and the worst case is true, then it may come to naught, but I must do what I can."

"There are eight people left alive. I know I am good. Unless he is pulling an extremely odd gambit, I know Pending is evil. However, he cannot be acting alone. I have a suspect pool of six."

"First, let me examine Rem. This gambit only works if it is a Thug and Coinshot pair as our Spiked, or if there are three Spiked. In the case of two Spiked, Rem's survival is an impossibility. Thus, I can only consider him as a member of a group of three. In that case, why go through a false attack gambit? It would be exceedingly risky, and for what? They could have much more easily put the town in a do or die situation. Why bother with two gambits in a row? While I cannot discard the possibility of this, I find it highly unlikely. Rem is most likely a Villager. @Ookla the Paradigm I urge you to change your vote."

"Then, based on the results of Day 1, that would put Dasenk in a harsh negative light. After all, he was the tying vote that spared Lord Pending. While I want to believe in his innocence, solely based on the outcome of the dream, I find it hard to dismiss the evidence against him. It is almost so suspicious that it becomes not suspicious. He's most likely Spiked, but part of me still wants to trust him. @Ookla thePresentParticiple you stand allied with me currently. Given Pending's outlandish claim, do you still feel the same?"

"Furthermore, what of Sonoluminescence? If Dasenk was Spiked, then surely Sono was innocent. There were no guarantees of this though. He would curse the town's luck if they managed to get two Spiked on the chopping block, and failed to execute either of them. Considering that Sono had voted on Pending, it seemed likely that the man was a Villager. @Ookla the Resolute I do have a question for you. Have you claimed to anyone that you've used your vial? I suspect the Spiked would not pull this gambit if protection was left unaccounted for."

"I worry I grow paranoid. I should immediately mark Onon as Villager, since he was the one most adamantly arguing against Lord Pending. However, I cannot help but see him in an ugly light. To perform this gambit, the Spiked would need to know everyone else's role, or actually have a Seeker. I'm not sure, but I suspect only Onon would have that information. On the other hand, perhaps there were incredibly loose lips around, and Pending himself could have pieced it together. I jot Onon down as a villager, reluctantly. @Kasimir in this life I am on the village's side, but just as in the dream, I ask you to change your mind."

"Finally, that brings me to the two quiet ones among us. If the Spiked needed to make a perfect picture to deduce my role, they would need a claim from one of them, if not both. Jorrick, despite not often participating in the public square, was known to chatter away in private conversations. If Pending or someone else asked to swap roles, he could believe the man would do a trade. He did not think the same of Rilla, though. The woman was a stranger to most here. If Rilla was Spiked, then there would be no gap in knowledge for the Spiked though, since she would share freely with her teammates. Thus, he suspected Rilla was Spiked, and Jorrick was Village. @JNV and @QuirksliverThis is do or die. Everyone needs you to vote."

He paused for a breath, trying to collect his thoughts. He had implicitly assumed that the Spiked had no Seeker. That was not the case in the dream, but would it be the case here? A Seeker on the side of the village would be very advantageous, but a Seeker who was Spiked would be much less powerful. In a three man team, it was possible. He didn't love the repetition though. He would suspect a Lurcher instead, given that he could have shot a Spiked.

"If I'm to make an outlandish guess, let me do it now. This is born out of paranoia and fear, but it may be my final hypothesis. I suspect a three person team of Onon, Pending, and Rilla. Futher, I suspect Rilla to be a Lurcher. On the village's side, I fear Sono was telling the truth, and that they protected Onon last night. I believe that Rem protected themselves last night. Further, I suspect Dasenk to actually be a Village Thug, and Jorrick to be our Village Tineye. If I die, may Preservation hold me in his arms."

[Archer]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

"Let me do the math for a second. There are currently eight of us. Let us assume two Spiked, with Pending as a Thug. In that case, it would be 6 v 2 today. I die due to a fake Seeker claim. It is 5 versus 2. Someone else dies to the Night kill. It is 4 villagers against two Spiked. Naturally, the village votes out the fake Seeker claim, but he survives due to his extra life. It stays 4 to 2, but then another dies in the Night, bringing it to 3 to 2. Then Pending would finally die, bringing it 3 to 1. Another Night kill, and we're at 2 to 1. That's not a guaranteed win, and makes me question this. Perhaps if Pending had a Coinshot as his partner, but even then, that's still a gamble with potentially some protection from Lurchers and Thugs out there."

"The worst case scenario is far simpler. There are three Spiked, and Pending is presumably not a Thug. Then the math gets much more tight. It would be 5 v 3 today. Again, I die to a fake Seeker claim. It is 4 v 3. They are able to successfully kill in the Night. It becomes 3 versus 3, and with ties not resulting in any death, they roll over to an easy victory. In that scenario, I fear any form of last minute swing, with someone saying they support me, before stabbing me in the back at the last second."

"The choices are now far narrower. Choose me, or choose Pending. One of us is certainly lying, and it is not me."

"I suppose there's a world where Pending is a Thug, but that doesn't explain how they correctly guessed your role out of three or four reasonable options. Perhaps a Seeker teammate could be involved, I'll grant you that. But then why would he announce the result, unless he is, as you guess, a Thug. The question then is did Pending feel endangered enough to be simply buying time with bold moves? 

"What ya fail to mention here is the possibility of you having enough metal for another shot toNight. If we shoot Pending and he simply dies, we go to seven. If the Spiked fire off two successful kills, we go to five. That's a loss with three Spiked in play before we can execute you. If there's only two, we could theoretically trade kills and enter a Day with one Spiked and two villagers. They'd have a protection advantage, but if they mess up that vote, we lose."

 

[Aeoryi]

9 minutes ago, Sart said:

"Right then. More analysis is required. If I die and the worst case is true, then it may come to naught, but I must do what I can."

"There are eight people left alive. I know I am good. Unless he is pulling an extremely odd gambit, I know Pending is evil. However, he cannot be acting alone. I have a suspect pool of six."

"First, let me examine Rem. This gambit only works if it is a Thug and Coinshot pair as our Spiked, or if there are three Spiked. In the case of two Spiked, Rem's survival is an impossibility. Thus, I can only consider him as a member of a group of three. In that case, why go through a false attack gambit? It would be exceedingly risky, and for what? They could have much more easily put the town in a do or die situation. Why bother with two gambits in a row? While I cannot discard the possibility of this, I find it highly unlikely. Rem is most likely a Villager. @Ookla the Paradigm I urge you to change your vote."

"Then, based on the results of Day 1, that would put Dasenk in a harsh negative light. After all, he was the tying vote that spared Lord Pending. While I want to believe in his innocence, solely based on the outcome of the dream, I find it hard to dismiss the evidence against him. It is almost so suspicious that it becomes not suspicious. He's most likely Spiked, but part of me still wants to trust him. @Ookla thePresentParticiple you stand allied with me currently. Given Pending's outlandish claim, do you still feel the same?"

"Furthermore, what of Sonoluminescence? If Dasenk was Spiked, then surely Sono was innocent. There were no guarantees of this though. He would curse the town's luck if they managed to get two Spiked on the chopping block, and failed to execute either of them. Considering that Sono had voted on Pending, it seemed likely that the man was a Villager. @Ookla the Resolute I do have a question for you. Have you claimed to anyone that you've used your vial? I suspect the Spiked would not pull this gambit if protection was left unaccounted for."

"I worry I grow paranoid. I should immediately mark Onon as Villager, since he was the one most adamantly arguing against Lord Pending. However, I cannot help but see him in an ugly light. To perform this gambit, the Spiked would need to know everyone else's role, or actually have a Seeker. I'm not sure, but I suspect only Onon would have that information. On the other hand, perhaps there were incredibly loose lips around, and Pending himself could have pieced it together. I jot Onon down as a villager, reluctantly. @Kasimir in this life I am on the village's side, but just as in the dream, I ask you to change your mind."

"Finally, that brings me to the two quiet ones among us. If the Spiked needed to make a perfect picture to deduce my role, they would need a claim from one of them, if not both. Jorrick, despite not often participating in the public square, was known to chatter away in private conversations. If Pending or someone else asked to swap roles, he could believe the man would do a trade. He did not think the same of Rilla, though. The woman was a stranger to most here. If Rilla was Spiked, then there would be no gap in knowledge for the Spiked though, since she would share freely with her teammates. Thus, he suspected Rilla was Spiked, and Jorrick was Village. @JNV and @QuirksliverThis is do or die. Everyone needs you to vote."

He paused for a breath, trying to collect his thoughts. He had implicitly assumed that the Spiked had no Seeker. That was not the case in the dream, but would it be the case here? A Seeker on the side of the village would be very advantageous, but a Seeker who was Spiked would be much less powerful. In a three man team, it was possible. He didn't love the repetition though. He would suspect a Lurcher instead, given that he could have shot a Spiked.

"If I'm to make an outlandish guess, let me do it now. This is born out of paranoia and fear, but it may be my final hypothesis. I suspect a three person team of Onon, Pending, and Rilla. Futher, I suspect Rilla to be a Lurcher. On the village's side, I fear Sono was telling the truth, and that they protected Onon last night. I believe that Rem protected themselves last night. Further, I suspect Dasenk to actually be a Village Thug, and Jorrick to be our Village Tineye. If I die, may Preservation hold me in his arms."

"Oh, some people know. Others do not. I have only told those I trust."

Rilla as a lurcher was insane. Two- lurchers was too many. Any more and it was skeptical.

 

[Kasimir]

Pending

Onon had been waiting for this.

[Sart]

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

"I suppose there's a world where Pending is a Thug, but that doesn't explain how they correctly guessed your role out of three or four reasonable options. Perhaps a Seeker teammate could be involved, I'll grant you that. But then why would he announce the result, unless he is, as you guess, a Thug. The question then is did Pending feel endangered enough to be simply buying time with bold moves? 

"What ya fail to mention here is the possibility of you having enough metal for another shot toNight. If we shoot Pending and he simply dies, we go to seven. If the Spiked fire off two successful kills, we go to five. That's a loss with three Spiked in play before we can execute you. If there's only two, we could theoretically trade kills and enter a Day with one Spiked and two villagers. They'd have a protection advantage, but if they mess up that vote, we lose."

 

"Be a little realistic here. Even with two Thugs on the Village side, a three man team with two extra kills would be hideously unbalanced. Supposing I am evil, which I am emphatically not, a two man team would be dangerously liable to swings with a 'Village' Seeker in play. A three man team should be under-powered compared to the Village, considering that it violates the one-fourth rule. An extra kill is a big buff."

[Kasimir]

24 minutes ago, Sart said:

To perform this gambit, the Spiked would need to know everyone else's role, or actually have a Seeker. I'm not sure, but I suspect only Onon would have that information. On the other hand, perhaps there were incredibly loose lips around, and Pending himself could have pieced it together.

"Again," Onon repeated, "No one here would kill a newcomer. Guest-right is a taboo so strong in most villages along this slice of the river that it would take a particularly depraved soul to violate it - or one thoroughly drunk. Dasenk was pretty clearly not Spiked. If Rilla were minded to shoot, she would've shot in Pending or Sono, if not withholding fire. The fact it was you is so bleedingly obvious only a baby would fail to see it."

[Aeoryi]

Quote

Voting Tally:

Sirta (2): Pending, Rem

Pending (4): Dasenk, Onon, Sono, Sirta

(Probably wrong)

Edited November 29, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute

[Ravenclawjedi42]

34 minutes ago, Sart said:

"Then, based on the results of Day 1, that would put Dasenk in a harsh negative light. After all, he was the tying vote that spared Lord Pending. While I want to believe in his innocence, solely based on the outcome of the dream, I find it hard to dismiss the evidence against him. It is almost so suspicious that it becomes not suspicious. He's most likely Spiked, but part of me still wants to trust him. @Ookla thePresentParticiple you stand allied with me currently. Given Pending's outlandish claim, do you still feel the same?"

“I do still believe that Pending is evil. If we, the village, successfully vote for him to be executed, then his alignment will decide my next move. He could definitely be a Spiked Seeker that scanned you, and changed your alignment in his announcement while correcting stating your role to throw confusion on the wind. Or he could be a village seeker, in which case I would then try to execute you. If he’s a thug…then…probably still going to try for him to be killed tomorrow, unless anything comes up that puts more evidence about you.”

[Aeoryi]

5 minutes ago, Ookla thePresentParticiple said:

“I do still believe that Pending is evil. If we, the village, successfully vote for him to be executed, then his alignment will decide my next move. He could definitely be a Spiked Seeker that scanned you, and changed your alignment in his announcement while correcting stating your role to throw confusion on the wind. Or he could be a village seeker, in which case I would then try to execute you. If he’s a thug…then…probably still going to try for him to be killed tomorrow, unless anything comes up that puts more evidence about you.”

"But what does Pending being evil tell us all about the other evildoer?"

[Quivil]

Rilla watched as the sun approached the horizon. Not much time left for her to say her piece.

"Sirta, your whole argument as to why Pending's evil and you're not is literally 'I know I'm not evil. Let's go talk about other things now.' That's not very helpful, but it does reek of misdirection. You admitted that Pending correctly guessed your role. How likely was that? Additionally, Pending didn't have to claim that he saw your actions last night, but he did anyway, completely unprovoked. Finally, some of your reasoning confuses me. You marked Onon as village, and then put him in a hypothetical three-elim team, without listing a two-elim team option beside it, despite the fact that you admitted that would be possible."

Edited November 29, 2023 by Quirksliver
timezones confuse me and i thought it was a last-minute post and it wasn't

[Aeoryi]

1 minute ago, Quirksliver said:

Rilla watched as the sun approached the horizon. Not much time left for her to say her piece.

"Sirta, your whole argument as to why Pending's evil and you're not is literally 'I know I'm not evil. Let's go talk about other things now.' That's not very helpful, but it does reek of misdirection. You admitted that Pending correctly guessed your role. How likely was that? Additionally, Pending didn't have to claim that he saw your actions last night, but he did anyway, completely unprovoked. Finally, some of your reasoning confuses me. You marked Onon as village, and then put him in a hypothetical three-elim team, without listing a two-elim team option beside it, despite the fact that you admitted that would be possible."

edit: "I apologize for speaking up at the last minute. I should have begun earlier."

"I have an idea. Why don't we kill Sirta first, then lynch the seeker." He wrote down some stuff, "Keeping a spiked Sirta around is bad, but keeping a spiked Pending is worse, especially if he is a thug."

[Quivil]

1 minute ago, Ookla the Resolute said:

"I have an idea. Why don't we kill Sirta first, then lynch the seeker." He wrote down some stuff, "Keeping a spiked Sirta around is bad, but keeping a spiked Pending is worse, especially if he is a thug."

"There is no evidence or claim that Pending is a Thug other than what Sirta has said about him. Is there anyone who says Pending's a thug with actual proof or a less-suspect role read on him? I'm not glued to my vote as it's still just my current best guess between two half-unknown options, but I would like a better reason to vote Pending than a blind trust in Sirta's honesty, especially when I see a 50/50 chance of Sirta being Spiked."

[Aeoryi]

Just now, Quirksliver said:

"There is no evidence or claim that Pending is a Thug other than what Sirta has said about him. Is there anyone who says Pending's a thug with actual proof or a less-suspect role read on him? I'm not glued to my vote as it's still just my current best guess between two half-unknown options, but I would like a better reason to vote Pending than a blind trust in Sirta's honesty, especially when I see a 50/50 chance of Sirta being Spiked."

"I have to admit that you are not wrong. Perhaps killing Sirta will be a good decision."

Quote

Kill Sirta Today, flips village

2/5 (3/4)

2/4 kill goes through

2/4 if pending is thug

2/3 if pending is thug and NK goes through (1/3 otherwise)

1/3 if pending dies and is a thug (1/2 otherwise)

"Seems like an odd gambit. I think that Sirta is definitely a flip we'll need"

Quote

Tally:

Sirta (4): Rilla, Rem, Pending, Sono

Pending (3): Onon, Dasenk, Sirta

sirta

[DrakeMarshall]

"Alright, time to draw the curtains on this."

"Another one of the traditional ways of celebrating Rollovet is by scamming people," Lord Pending stated pleasantly. "And I am ever a traditionalist to the bone."

"You know how I said I was a Seeker? I'm nothing of the sort. Happy Rollovet!"

"I apologize for giving you all a shock. But it has cleared up a few questions, I'd say. I hope it was worth it."

 

"By his reaction, I'd say that I strongly doubt that Sirta is spiked. I think a real spiked coinshot who'd garnered votes and then had just been outed would've had a pretty hard time mounting such a fierce denial. Sure, he might've denied it, but the conviction just wouldn't be there. He'd know that even if he defended himself he was dead either way, and that undermining my credibility as a Seeker was unlikely to work. It takes a special kind of madness to keep fighting just as hard under those odds. Sirta's reaction feels quite genuine."

"I am sorry about dragging you out into the open like that, but I had my reasons. There doesn't seem to be very much metal in Copper's Bend. How many vials did you start with? One? Two? Don't answer that. The point is, by all rights it probably isn't very many, and you've already burned one. Like I said, we're all on fairly even footing here, especially if you've already burned your one vial of metal. The need to hide and protect those with special powers is less pressing than it might otherwise be. And again, if I'm wrong, if you do have a remarkable hoard of metals squirreled away... Probably don't tell me that."

"Not to mention, if I could figure it out, other people can too. I know for a fact that other people are working from a largely more complete picture than I am. If I can fill in the gaps then it figures that they quite probably can."

"And for what it's worth, it also seems likely that you'd have had to have revealed yourself today anyway, due to leading in the vote."

"I'll confess it wasn't very polite of me to force the issue rather than letting you choose to reveal in your own time. But I had my reasons."

"In any case, this resolves one mystery that was vexing me today: it seems quite likely that the coinshot is on our side."

 

"This is consistent with my second observation: namely that Sonoluminescence looks thoroughly spiked."

"Given the abundance of persons with protective powers, and the presence of a killing power on the side of Copper's Bend, it seems pretty likely that some of those protective powers were bestowed upon the spiked. It could be Rem, but I don't buy it. If Rem were a spiked Lurcher then revealing himself as a Lurcher and then hanging Sono should be the last things he wants, as this would quite possibly ensure his death the next day. Whereas if Rem were a genuine village Lurcher then these actions make perfect sense. By process of elimination, Sono seems highly suspect."

"There is also the way Sono reacted to my pretense towards being a Seeker. I think it's pretty apparent that Sono knew it was a lie from the start."

"Sono compiled a list of powers that we've heard about. This included some uncomfirmed rumors of powers, such as the Thugs. And yet it had seemed perfectly natural to Sono to leave out that I had claimed to be a Seeker, without explaining why or even vocalizing that they didn't believe it was true."

"Not very long after, when Sirta asks Sono to pick a side, Sono decides to vote for me. Again, with no explanation given, without so much as talking to me directly even once."

"This is very strange behavior," Lord Pending says.

"You'd think a townsperson would be more inclined to grapple with what both sides are saying, figure out which one is telling the truth, maybe get mad at the one who is lying. You'd figure there would be at least some evidence of them actually having to think about it, some evidence of showing their work. Or at least you'd think it would take longer for them to arrive at a definite conclusion on the subject."

"But Sono didn't do any of that."

"I think Sono knew I was lying from the beginning. Because Sono is spiked, and knows full well that Sirta isn't."

"Instead, Sono voted for me. I imagine their thought process was that whether I hang or Sirta does, a villager would die, I would be outed as a liar, and Sono would look good in the aftermath for having disbelieved in the lie. It's a reasonable approach, if you don't think you're being tested."

Lord Pending sighed, and looked to Sono.

"I apologize, but I don't really see a way you can't be spiked. It would have probably been better if I'd voted for you yesterday."

[Aeoryi]

11 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

"Alright, time to draw the curtains on this."

"Another one of the traditional ways of celebrating Rollovet is by scamming people," Lord Pending stated pleasantly. "And I am ever a traditionalist to the bone."

"You know how I said I was a Seeker? I'm nothing of the sort. Happy Rollovet!"

"I apologize for giving you all a shock. But it has cleared up a few questions, I'd say. I hope it was worth it."

 

"By his reaction, I'd say that I strongly doubt that Sirta is spiked. I think a real spiked coinshot who'd garnered votes and then had just been outed would've had a pretty hard time mounting such a fierce denial. Sure, he might've denied it, but the conviction just wouldn't be there. He'd know that even if he defended himself he was dead either way, and that undermining my credibility as a Seeker was unlikely to work. It takes a special kind of madness to keep fighting just as hard under those odds. Sirta's reaction feels quite genuine."

"I am sorry about dragging you out into the open like that, but I had my reasons. There doesn't seem to be very much metal in Copper's Bend. How many vials did you start with? One? Two? Don't answer that. The point is, by all rights it probably isn't very many, and you've already burned one. Like I said, we're all on fairly even footing here, especially if you've already burned your one vial of metal. The need to hide and protect those with special powers is less pressing than it might otherwise be. And again, if I'm wrong, if you do have a remarkable hoard of metals squirreled away... Probably don't tell me that."

"Not to mention, if I could figure it out, other people can too. I know for a fact that other people are working from a largely more complete picture than I am. If I can fill in the gaps then it figures that they quite probably can."

"And for what it's worth, it also seems likely that you'd have had to have revealed yourself today anyway, due to leading in the vote."

"I'll confess it wasn't very polite of me to force the issue rather than letting you choose to reveal in your own time. But I had my reasons."

"In any case, this resolves one mystery that was vexing me today: it seems quite likely that the coinshot is on our side."

 

"This is consistent with my second observation: namely that Sonoluminescence looks thoroughly spiked."

"Given the abundance of persons with protective powers, and the presence of a killing power on the side of Copper's Bend, it seems pretty likely that some of those protective powers were bestowed upon the spiked. It could be Rem, but I don't buy it. If Rem were a spiked Lurcher then revealing himself as a Lurcher and then hanging Sono should be the last things he wants, as this would quite possibly ensure his death the next day. Whereas if Rem were a genuine village Lurcher then these actions make perfect sense. By process of elimination, Sono seems highly suspect."

"There is also the way Sono reacted to my pretense towards being a Seeker. I think it's pretty apparent that Sono knew it was a lie from the start."

"Sono compiled a list of powers that we've heard about. This included some uncomfirmed rumors of powers, such as the Thugs. And yet it had seemed perfectly natural to Sono to leave out that I had claimed to be a Seeker, without explaining why or even vocalizing that they didn't believe it was true."

"Not very long after, when Sirta asks Sono to pick a side, Sono decides to vote for me. Again, with no explanation given, without so much as talking to me directly even once."

"This is very strange behavior," Lord Pending says.

"You'd think a townsperson would be more inclined to grapple with what both sides are saying, figure out which one is telling the truth, maybe get mad at the one who is lying. You'd figure there would be at least some evidence of them actually having to think about it, some evidence of showing their work. Or at least you'd think it would take longer for them to arrive at a definite conclusion on the subject."

"But Sono didn't do any of that."

"I think Sono knew I was lying from the beginning. Because Sono is spiked, and knows full well that Sirta isn't."

"Instead, Sono voted for me. I imagine their thought process was that whether I hang or Sirta does, a villager would die, I would be outed as a liar, and Sono would look good in the aftermath for having disbelieved in the lie. It's a reasonable approach, if you don't think you're being tested."

Lord Pending sighed, and looked to Sono.

"I apologize, but I don't really see a way you can't be spiked. It would have probably been better if I'd voted for you yesterday."

"I am not offended. I simply rather was not trying to interpret your words, with hidden cryptic meanings beneath them. I understand that I must die." Sono sighed, then said, "I protected Onon last night. I am not a useful lurcher anymore. It appears my time in Copper's Bend is coming to a close. But do not idle during this time. Plot, scheme, or interpret what will happen if I am to flip V!lurcher, or S!lurcher, or something else entirely :)."

Sono

Edited November 29, 2023 by Ookla the Resolute

[Sart]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

"Alright, time to draw the curtains on this."

"Another one of the traditional ways of celebrating Rollovet is by scamming people," Lord Pending stated pleasantly. "And I am ever a traditionalist to the bone."

"You know how I said I was a Seeker? I'm nothing of the sort. Happy Rollovet!"

"I apologize for giving you all a shock. But it has cleared up a few questions, I'd say. I hope it was worth it."

 

"By his reaction, I'd say that I strongly doubt that Sirta is spiked. I think a real spiked coinshot who'd garnered votes and then had just been outed would've had a pretty hard time mounting such a fierce denial. Sure, he might've denied it, but the conviction just wouldn't be there. He'd know that even if he defended himself he was dead either way, and that undermining my credibility as a Seeker was unlikely to work. It takes a special kind of madness to keep fighting just as hard under those odds. Sirta's reaction feels quite genuine."

"I am sorry about dragging you out into the open like that, but I had my reasons. There doesn't seem to be very much metal in Copper's Bend. How many vials did you start with? One? Two? Don't answer that. The point is, by all rights it probably isn't very many, and you've already burned one. Like I said, we're all on fairly even footing here, especially if you've already burned your one vial of metal. The need to hide and protect those with special powers is less pressing than it might otherwise be. And again, if I'm wrong, if you do have a remarkable hoard of metals squirreled away... Probably don't tell me that."

"Not to mention, if I could figure it out, other people can too. I know for a fact that other people are working from a largely more complete picture than I am. If I can fill in the gaps then it figures that they quite probably can."

"And for what it's worth, it also seems likely that you'd have had to have revealed yourself today anyway, due to leading in the vote."

"I'll confess it wasn't very polite of me to force the issue rather than letting you choose to reveal in your own time. But I had my reasons."

"In any case, this resolves one mystery that was vexing me today: it seems quite likely that the coinshot is on our side."

 

"This is consistent with my second observation: namely that Sonoluminescence looks thoroughly spiked."

"Given the abundance of persons with protective powers, and the presence of a killing power on the side of Copper's Bend, it seems pretty likely that some of those protective powers were bestowed upon the spiked. It could be Rem, but I don't buy it. If Rem were a spiked Lurcher then revealing himself as a Lurcher and then hanging Sono should be the last things he wants, as this would quite possibly ensure his death the next day. Whereas if Rem were a genuine village Lurcher then these actions make perfect sense. By process of elimination, Sono seems highly suspect."

"There is also the way Sono reacted to my pretense towards being a Seeker. I think it's pretty apparent that Sono knew it was a lie from the start."

"Sono compiled a list of powers that we've heard about. This included some uncomfirmed rumors of powers, such as the Thugs. And yet it had seemed perfectly natural to Sono to leave out that I had claimed to be a Seeker, without explaining why or even vocalizing that they didn't believe it was true."

"Not very long after, when Sirta asks Sono to pick a side, Sono decides to vote for me. Again, with no explanation given, without so much as talking to me directly even once."

"This is very strange behavior," Lord Pending says.

"You'd think a townsperson would be more inclined to grapple with what both sides are saying, figure out which one is telling the truth, maybe get mad at the one who is lying. You'd figure there would be at least some evidence of them actually having to think about it, some evidence of showing their work. Or at least you'd think it would take longer for them to arrive at a definite conclusion on the subject."

"But Sono didn't do any of that."

"I think Sono knew I was lying from the beginning. Because Sono is spiked, and knows full well that Sirta isn't."

"Instead, Sono voted for me. I imagine their thought process was that whether I hang or Sirta does, a villager would die, I would be outed as a liar, and Sono would look good in the aftermath for having disbelieved in the lie. It's a reasonable approach, if you don't think you're being tested."

Lord Pending sighed, and looked to Sono.

"I apologize, but I don't really see a way you can't be spiked. It would have probably been better if I'd voted for you yesterday."

"Are you rusting kidding me???"

Sirta angrily chucked his beer at the lord.

"I was trying to keep a low profile, in order to get the Spiked to hit a Thug! I was planning on revealing my misdeed eventually but instead you completely derailed the conversation before I even had a chance! I'm now in danger of dying, you're in extreme danger of dying, and you're trying to swing the vote to someone who was already in the lead before you intervened. If you really are a villager, I leave my vote on you in protest!"

Edited November 29, 2023 by Sart