Long Game 98: A Tale of Mists and Metals

[Kasimir]

"In my view, immediate implications in Pending and Rem. Agree more likely Pending. I'll commit to more after redoing my reads and looking at the accusations from earlier today and yesterday," said Onon.

[Kasimir]

Onon worked furiously, scribbling on the sheet of paper. He regretted the time lost to the apothecary's painkilling liquid. He'd an odd, almost-feverish dream of being somewhere else, desperately trying to avert disaster before a countdown...

Folly. No matter. He was here and now, and he still had a job to do.

First, Onon drew out the tally of the accusations at the end of yesterday. He labelled it 'Day One' for convenience.

Quote

Day One

Sonoluminescence (2): Dasenk, Rem
Pending (2): Onon, Sonoluminescence
Onon (1): Sirta
Revir (1): Pending
No Accusation (X): Rilla, Jorrick, Revir

That was the objective version: or if you liked, the intersubjective version. Then, Onon chalked in his own credences.

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Day One

Sonoluminescence (2): Dasenk, Rem
Pending (2): Onon, Sonoluminescence
Onon (1): Sirta
Revir (1): Pending
No Accusation (X): Rilla, Jorrick, Revir

Off the top of his head, Onon noticed that the Pending accusation seemed, from his perspective, to be fairly pure. While it was interesting that they'd ended up with a tie, Onon's thoughts were that Jorrick and Rilla had been missing; Revir didn't matter here as he was now known to be a loyal villager. Rem voting on Sono could be seen as an attempt to preserve Pending.

It was interesting to Onon that Pending hadn't changed his accusation - he could've easily cost the Village Sono at this juncture. 

While Onon believed Sirta was loyal, he had to acknowledge that he'd seen Sirta around sunset. Sirta had declined to influence the results of the day. That, too, was interesting. Rem had been locked on Sono, seemingly content with a tie.

He scribbled this down in notes:

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• Pending wasn't paying attention at sunset, and had elected to vote Revir, a loyal villager.
• Rem had chosen to swap from Pending to Sono, creating a tie and saving Pending.
• Dasenk swapped to Sono. This was at a time where, according to Sono's tallies, Rem had been endangered, and reintroduced the possibility of a Rem-Dasenk pairing.
• Sirta, Revir, Jorrick, Rem, and Pending had all been comfortable with the state of the sunset votes. None of them had bothered to change the status quo.

Second, Onon drew out the tally of the accusations at the end of today. He labelled it 'Day Two' for convenience.

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Day Two

Sonoluminescence (5): Jorrick, Onon, Pending, Rem, Rilla
Pending (3): Dasenk, Sirta, Sonoluminescence

Then, he drew out a version that was coloured with his credences.

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Day Two

Sonoluminescence (5): Jorrick, Onon, Pending, Rem, Rilla
Pending (3): Dasenk, Sirta, Sonoluminescence

Onon had more conclusions he was willing to draw. However, his arm was beginning to once again ache. He decided to leave off for the moment and resume in a short while after rest.

Edited November 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[Ravenclawjedi42]

12 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

"What? This makes no sense! Surely we just haven't searched thoroughly enough for a spike on the body," Lord Pending blustered. "Surely we just need to check again."

If Sonoluminescence wasn't spiked, then the number of mistakes Copper's Bend could afford to make had just gotten very small, particularly if one of the Thugs was spiked.

The odds didn't look very good for Copper's Bend.

No, they didn’t. Dasenk sighs and stares at Pending, regretful of the death that could have happen, if only everyone else hadn’t voted for one of the few people that Dasenk hadn’t felt too much suspicion for. But no. Soon was dead, and Pending—in Dasenk’s mind, almost certainly Spiked—was staying alive. This did mean that the other Spiked was almost certainly among Jorrick, Onon, Rem, or Rilla. Dasenk personally thought that it was Pending, but honestly it could be any of them.

[Kasimir]

Having rested, Onon continued scribbling yet again. He'd gone over the events of the day, and had a few more comments he wished to make:

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• Dasenk had an early vote on Pending despite also believing there were too many claiming protective powers for things to make sense. They lampshade the fact this doesn't make sense, but keep their vote on Pending. This doesn't seem quite right to me.
• Rem moves off Sono and onto Sirta. Worth noting that the lead train at that time was Sono, so this doesn't feel too odd. Interesting that Rem doesn't want to double pressure on Pending despite also thinking Pending looks suspicious in the very same post - Rem's also gone on record before as defending Pending yesterday both via voting and stating they don't want to visit Pending prior to a Sono flip.
• Rilla had a decent start in getting into the investigation. Would feel more confident in a Rilla read if Rilla named a suspicion - feel it is generally easier for Spiked to make a case for Villagers than it is to make a case for why someone else is Spiked.
• Quick response from Rem. It's possible Rem knew this was coming via private Spiked communications and doubled down; otherwise, it does feel like it skews a bit Village.
• Rilla's rejoinder to Sirta is a bit odd. There's no reason Sirta shouldn't begin with "Well, I know I'm not Spiked" - he'd be certifiably crazy (more so than I think he already is) to take anything else, because...hello, Pending made a scan claim. The only objection to a scan claim that is otherwise theoretically possible is, "Uh, no, this is a lie because I'm not Spiked." Moving on to offer helpful reads and thoughts is the Village thing to do, because you accept your flip may be necessary and out of your control. In that light, I do feel some concern that Rilla feels obligated to push Sirta rather than Pending. It doesn't feel very natural here.
• It's possible that Sirta and Pending orchestrated this to get votes off Sirta, but I don't fully believe it. Sirta protest voting Pending, and just the fact that Sirta made a significant attempt to lobby against Pending feels fairly unpaired to me. That's more commitment than I can see many criminals putting into a con.
• Rilla's final statement before condemning Sono sticks out to me and I'm not sure why, or whether it's positive or negative. I'm sitting on the feeling for now and trying to chase it.

He pulled out a fresh sheet of paper and began again, dipping the pen into the ink. He wondered if there was anything worthwhile about pathwalking. Sometimes, Onon found the technique useful for illuminating possibilities, and robust ones especially deserved to be explored. He sighed, and committed to it.

E!Pending World:

Quote

Day One

Sonoluminescence (2): Dasenk, Rem
Pending (2): Onon, Sonoluminescence
Onon (1): Sirta
Revir (1): Pending
No Accusation (3): Rilla, Jorrick, Revir

Day Two

Sonoluminescence (5): Jorrick, Onon, Pending, Rem, Rilla
Pending (3): Dasenk, Sirta, Sonoluminescence

Although Onon was tempted to say Rilla looked good for Day One apathy, in truth, it was simply difficult to determine. Rilla had been away, so there was no real inference that could be drawn. A similar, soft argument could be made for Jorrick, with the exception Jorrick had been around, so could have potentially been more present had a Spiked partner been endangered. Still, Onon didn't feel too strongly about that - he thought there were other reasons to exonerate Jorrick.

Sirta had most certainly been around, and Sirta's contentment to stay on Onon felt promising. It wasn't what you expected from someone whose partner was potentially endangered, and who could have forced an exe of Sono, though perhaps the argument here was that a late movement looked suspicious. Still, having other reasons to read Sirta as a Villager, Onon didn't feel too perturbed here.

The main Spiked partner candidates in this world were in <Rem, Dasenk>, with a side of <Rilla>. Rem was the most promising partner here due to his relative unwillingness to endanger Pending, even at the cost of a tie. Dasenk suddenly pushing against Sono left them no less a candidate, however, and subsequently unable to retract without endangering Pending. However, Dasenk voted and remained on Pending on the second day - while distancing was a tactic, it left them looking somewhat better compared to Rem.

The stability of this world was questionable in light of the fact Pending hadn't felt compelled to accuse Sono, and that no one would really have bedgrudged Pending the vote on Sono. Perhaps Pending had been content with what he thought were 50/50 odds; the lord loved a little risk. Still, Onon left the thought to soak like day-old beans.

V!Pending World:

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Day One

Sonoluminescence (2): Dasenk, Rem
Pending (2): Onon, Sonoluminescence
Onon (1): Sirta
Revir (1): Pending
No Accusation (X): Rilla, Jorrick, Revir

Day Two

Sonoluminescence (5): Jorrick, Onon, Pending, Rem, Rilla
Pending (3): Dasenk, Sirta, Sonoluminescence

In a world where Pending was Village, Rem's insistence on pushing Sono became a little more mysterious: Spiked had little reason to particularly care here. It was possible, Onon supposed, that Rem was trying to manufacture a tunnel, but even so.

<Dasenk, Sirta> both looked suspicious here, due to high stability entailing high confidence or complacency with the state of affairs, with a side of <Rilla, Rem>. Still, just as with Jorrick, there were reasons to exclude Sirta here.

This really meant that <Rem, Dasenk> were prime candidates for suspicion in either Pending world. 

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Thoughts As At Night Two:

• Day Two interaction between Sirta and Pending doesn't feel S/S. At best it's V/V, at worst it's V/S, with Pending being the more likely Spiked candidate here.
• Robust past life reasons and role and tonal reasons to consider Sirta Village here.
• According to the spirits, withholding any thoughts on any other alternate universes in which this battle of light against darkness, Village against Spiked, may be playing out, I humbly submit that Jorrick is behaving as they do when they are Village, and that I believe the signs to be robust across most lives.
• Felt Dasenk had a strong D1, with their suspicion on Rem emerging from a fairly natural Villager mindset. Am not sure how much to weigh it against the rest of Dasenk's approach at this point. However, it's worth highlighting anyway.
• Rem's relative unwillingness to move shielding vote off Sono can be explained by role reasoning, but if you look more closely, it actually doesn't hold up. Here's what Rem says when casing Pending on D2:
   

  Quote

  "I'm not sure this logic holds up. I'm just a cowboy with a gambling addiction, but from my humble perspective, abilities being charge-limited makes them more likely to be duplicated. I wasn't willing to kill/not kill on the basis of a Lurcher role-claim in this context, so I don't see the point in this ask."

  Hang on a tick. Wasn't the entire point of Rem's push against Sono the improbability of two Lurchers? Weren't we supposed to buy the whole reason Rem was so dead-set against Sono D1 was because of the Two Lurcher Problem? I certainly had other issues against Sono, but I don't feel Rem's own "your behaviour changed" argument against Sono was this strong and warranted this sort of 'I will vote you unto a tie and beyond' behaviour without the backup of the Two Lurcher Problem.
   

• Rem was attacked on the first Night. Since we now know Sono flipped Village, one wonders if the attack was meant to frame Sono (by attacking Villager Rem), or to buy Village credit for Spiked Rem, knowing Rem might be in trouble once Sono flipped.
• Potential S/S connection between Rem and Pending based off D1 voting behaviour.
• Pointing out again that Pending's D1 sunset didn't feel particularly invested, and in fact, felt like a pale red flag.
• Revisiting my memories of D1, I don't strongly feel that Rem/Dasenk are S/S either. Rem bringing up Dasenk that way just had no real impetus, and felt very casual/off-the-cuff. (Noting that this entails for me that the best S!partner for S!Pending is Rem, and in a V!Pending, S!Rem world, S!partner is unlikely to be Dasenk, so I'd have to look to Rilla.)
• Pending retracted his accusation immediately as soon as Sono claimed. Notable I think in light of the fact that Dasenk went on and Rem stayed.
• Difficult to understand why S!Pending makes that claim. Feel we are committed to one point of oddness no matter what world we are in: (i) S!Pending didn't vote in self-preservation and made the fake Seeker claim, (ii) S!Rem attacked himself for Village cred, (iii) Spiked are in <Rilla, Dasenk, Jorrick>, which entails a false assumption about Dasenk's approach.

Onon hesitated. A thick blob of ink splattered down onto the paper which drank it up like villages - they loved this ritual master gig.

He began anew, cursing quietly.

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• ...we are committed to one point of oddness no matter what world we are in. This implies, as always, that we have made some mistake in our thinking. It is fine to make a mistake in our thinking. The important thing is to remedy it swiftly.
• (i) S!Pending didn't vote in self-preservation and made the fake Seeker claim. In this world, Rem was the most promising S!partner, with a Dasenk and Rilla side. If Rem was the S!Partner, then they were committed to even more tacit oddities: that having missed the exe on the first day, Rem and Pending had then chosen a gambit for the night. The alternative world had Dasenk try to distance from Pending by continuing to vote for him and declare suspicions of him.
• (ii) S!Rem attacked himself for Village cred. Again, with S!Pending being the most likely S!partner, we are then committed to twice the tacit oddities, and double the madness. The alternative here has Rilla has an E!partner, in my view. (Dasenk side.)
• (iii) Spiked are in <Rilla, Dasenk, Jorrick> - unlikely Jorrick, added for formality's sake. This implied they had spent a great deal of time chasing at the wind.

Onon frowned. The issue was that the Pending-Rem world required the Spiked to have committed to extreme pacifism. He could see it in Pending's wheelhouse, but the thought that the Spiked were extremely alright with missing two kills...felt like an assumption you reached afterwards, not before. It did suggest Pending and Rem were less likely to be teamed, which meant you just had to explain/accept one oddity after all.

He would probably push Pending first, due to the attack having hit Rem, he supposed. But it was a near thing.

Edited to add:

When Onon meant that it seemed as though Rilla felt almost compelled to vote Sirta, he just meant that Rilla seemed to overjustify needing to vote Sirta. Of course a Spiked - had Sirta genuinely been Spiked - would have had to lie and claim Pending's falsehood implied Copper's Bend was somehow already doomed.

In other words - it felt odd/wrong to Onon because the standard play anyway was to just shoot the claimed Spiked and then the Seeker if something was wrong. That was how it went: you acted on information, and if the information was false, you killed the liar. Sure, you could argue about whether you could afford to be wrong, but that wasn't even a consideration for Rilla, so why the focus on aspects of Sirta's words that weren't relevant to the issue at hand?

Edited November 30, 2023 by Kasimir

[DrakeMarshall]

"I allowed a tie because I didn't know ties didn't kill anyone and was at peace with risking a brush with death if you really thought that was your best suspicion."

"The rest of you all who were around allowed a tie because you were stubborn and insisted it was somebody else's job to compromise."

"Anyways, I" -- correctly, apparently! Lord Pending thought ruefully -- "believed in Sono's innocence at the time, and wasn't all that invested in guaranteeing the death of a potential village Lurcher as opposed to it being a coin toss."

"In light of the fact that the first day's vote was a tie between two innocents" -- something they couldn't know for sure, but oh well -- "it seems worth considering that the spiked might not have cared about it all that much. Hasn't it been said that quite a few people were content to let it be? I'd say that supports this view. I don't think it's a particularly novel take to say that some of the people who weren't invested in intervening in that tie are very likely to be spiked. And I'd say a priori at least it looks worse for the people who weren't on the chopping block to not intervene."

Lord Pending sighed. Clearly, ignoring the points against him and hoping they went away as people thought about it some more was the wrong take. A cynical person would say that this was evidence of complacency or malice amongst the people who wanted him dead, but... That was fundamentally an unproductive line of reasoning. Maybe they hadn't done enough work to actually examine the facts, or maybe Pending himself hadn't done enough work to inspire trust. Arguing about it wouldn't put them any closer to finding spiked.

"Let's do a little exercise."

"Quite a lot has been said about whether or not I am spiked. Quite a lot of volume."

It was ironic that the man with an injured wrist was putting the rest of them to shame.

"This is a trick employed by street vendors in Khlennium. They would prepare great clay vats of soup and have them on display. They would glaze and decorate the outside, and prepare all manner of appetizing fare to be seen floating on top. Nothing is better to warm you on a winter night," Lord Pending reminisced.

"The thing is, sometimes the soup's mostly rainwater."

It was more common in the days before Khlennium's ascent to power, granted.

"It can be hard to tell exactly how much actual meat and flavor is in the soup, at a glance."

"Of course, if you really wanted to know for sure, you could boil it down. If it's mostly water, then you won't be left with much after the boiling. If it's a rich and fortifying broth, on the other hand, you'll have an even thicker and meatier broth after the boiling. So... Boil your arguments down, if you want me to respond to them, that is. Show me that it isn't all rainwater. I'd say that if you have the time to make long arguments in the first place, you've probably got the time to summarize, because if you have a coherent point already the summarizing shouldn't take much time at all."

"This doesn't just go for the points against me, mind. I find it's a useful exercise for anyone."

"And I'll take my own advice."

Lord Pending waved for his driver to fetch some butcher paper and some tacks. He pinned the paper up against the wall, next to the dried beer-stain, and started writing an outline.

Quote

Dasenk
+ Onon thinks Dasenk had a strong start on the first day. I don't see it really, but if Onon thinks its still worth bringing up today that nets some credibility.
-- Switched votes to Sono on the first day. Stated reasoning for it feels lukewarm, potential hidden motive at work. Rem was leading the votes at the time.
- Response to Seeker reaction test looks bad. Of course, Sono's response also looked bad and Sono was innocent, so this should be taken with a grain of salt.
- As opposed to Onon's suspicion of me, Dasenk's looks somewhat opportunistic.

Sirta
+++ Did not hesitate to call me out on my B.S. when I accused him, a spiked would very likely have flinched or been demotivated
+ Burning steel early does not feel optimal for spiked, who I think would rather catch Copper's Bend off guard with it, assuming a limited number of vials
- Passivity in the first day vote, although probably explained by the fact that he doesn't need the vote to dispose of people he suspects

Onon
++ Very probably too aggressive to be spiked
++ Making an effort to figure things out well beyond what is needed just to appear innocent
- Thinks allowing the first day tie is suspicious but is equally responsible for it as everyone else who was around -- granted he was clearly frustrated about it but still man if I apply your own standard consistently it's got to be a minus in your book

Rem
-- Credences that Sirta is a loyal coinshot casts suspicion on those with protective abilities
++ Pushed to get a Lurcher hung, which would be an odd choice when he is spiked and has also claimed Lurcher
-- Rem has gone on record saying that he does not believe that two Lurchers is inherently suspicious, which invalidates the above point
++ Survived a spiked attack, which might well be a trick but a priori when people survive being attacked it usually isn't a trick
- Gut feeling he was trying to pocket me on the first day
- In retrospect, I think his reaction to my Seeker claim seems mildly spiked. He would probably know to expect a reaction test from me, having been hit by a very similar trick in a past life. Therefore, the quick vote for Sirta without either privately or publicly wondering if it was a test is actually mildly unusual, because I feel an unspiked Rem would have been more paranoid. It's a bit akin to gamblers who try to force their expression to be blank and neutral to avoid having any kind of tell or giving up information, but once they do that they've actually just created a new tell which is that you know they're hiding something if they keep their faces too neutral.
- The fact that there are this many things under Rem's name and the total doesn't run positive is inherently a bit of a negative

Jorrick
+ Tends to be more laid back when village, past lives would suggest. This is a weak reason based on past lives and other such mysticism, and it's also one that could be exploited by a spiked Jorrick, but it's still a reason that has held true in every past life I'm aware of, and that's worth some credibility, particularly if there are better suspects to look at right now.

Rilla
? Mostly only talkative during the last day. Note to self: Reconsider everything they said during that last day in light of Sono's innocence.

 

[Araris Valerian]

The night has ended! Writeup will be a bit delayed but I’ll post the day so y’all can get on with things.

[Araris Valerian]

Deep into the night, Onon found Arwhin on the mayor’s porch, gently rocking a finely crafted chair in the mist-filled darkness. Noticing his friend, Awhin raised a hand and gestured to the seat next to him, an invitation. Onon took the seat, sighing lightly as he rested his wounded arm. The two of them sat silently for some time, enjoying the simple pleasures of each other’s company and the cool night air. Eventually, Onon turned to the mayor and spoke.

“Things are bad. I’m expecting the Spiked come for me tonight.”

Arwhin grunted his reply. “That’s what you get for sticking out like a sore thumb. And yeah, it looks rough. If it weren’t for that Pending…” The mayor’s face contorted in anger.

Onon glanced over, concerned, but decided not to confront Arhwin about his rival.

The mayor spoke again. “I’ve got something here for you… Augh!” Arwhin, in the midst of reaching into his pocket, recoiled in shock.

“What is it?”

Arwhin reached back in, more gingerly this time, and withdrew a somewhat squashed frog. “I’ve no idea where this came from.” He tossed it to Onon. “But it seems to have been swapped for my note. No matter. Wouldn’t do any good if you’re right about the Spiked. Maybe you can divine something from that frog’s spirit about how to live the night.” He said the last words only half-jokingly.

Onon caught the frog, frowning at it. “Maybe I’ll do just that. Thank you for the seat. I needed this, in the middle of everything else going on.”

The two men clasped arms, and Onon stepped out of the lantern-lit porch onto the mist-covered road.

As Onon neared his home, a cloaked form stepped out of the darkness, brandishing a knife at Onon. He flung out his arms in reflex, and the frog flew into the attacker’s face, who let out a sudden cry. Onon fled into a nearby alley, a grim smile on his face at the success of Arhwin’s “gift”. Another person stepped out in front of Onon, and a shock of recognition registered on Onon’s face before the second person swung a sword, neatly severing Onon’s head.

Onon Khentii was a Vanilla Villager!

Day 3 has begun, and will end at 6PM EST on Saturday the 2nd.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. @Ravenclawjedi42 as Dasenk, a suspicious historian
2. @Sart as Sirta, a boisterous gentleman with a hankering for drink
3. Aeoryi as Sonoluminescence, an architect that enjoys not working Village Lurcher
4. Kasimir as Onon Khentii, conman and ostensible psychic who speaks with the dead Vanilla Villager
5. @DrakeMarshall as "Lord" Pending, a presumptuous nobleman of somewhat dubious origin
6. @Archer as Rem, a high-stakes gambler
7. @JNV as Jorrick, a methodical carpenter
8. TheRavenHasLanded as Revir, a compulsive thief Vanilla Villager
9. @Quirksliver as Rilla, an insane "matchmaker" 

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by Araris Valerian

[DrakeMarshall]

"My vote is for Rem," Lord Pending declared. "You've gambled your last, if I have anything to say about it. Surrender and face my lordly justice."

Lord Pending could never be said to have cut an intimidating figure. He was slight of frame and didn't stand up straight most of the time. His silken clothes, while tattered and worn, gave him the air of a city-dwelling fop. But right now, his eyes were seething.

"While I don't insist on there being a spiked Lurcher... There doesn't necessarily have to be one if, for instance, there's a spiked Thugs running around... There are reasons to suspect you of conspiring against Copper's Bend above and beyond the whims of the mists. As I have already enumerated," he gestures to the wall behind him, which still had the paper tacked onto it. Rem's name was crowded with red marks. "I've gone back and forth on you for a while, now. But eventually, the red marks pile up. A reckoning will not be postponed indefinitely."

"Also, all else held equal, I'd rather we attempt to hang somebody who would actually die. Hanging a Thug is a commitment!" Lord Pending exclaimed. And if there's no avoiding it, I for one would rather commit to it as late as possible, when we have as much information as possible. Because if we get it wrong, it will cost us greatly."

[DrakeMarshall]

After a thoughtful pause, Lord Pending spoke up again.

"Hrm. Let's review the numbers for a moment."

"There are six of us left in Copper's Bend, excluding the mayor of course. I don't trust that the mayor will be of very much help," Lord Pending said loftily.

"I am going to make explicit my assumption that there are two spiked. This assumption seems eminently reasonable to me. If there were three spiked, Copper's Bend would already be lost, no two ways about it. If there were one, well, then we'll likely have the chance to cross that bridge when we get to it. A lone spiked probably indicates that one of the Thugs is guilty. Or maybe Sirta, but I don't believe in it. But again, we'll likely have the chance to cross that bridge when we get to it."

"So. Assuming four innocents and two spiked... If we hang the wrong person today, that puts us at three innocents and two spiked, at which point the spiked will probably kill another innocent, and our numbers will be evenly matched. Once that happens, Copper's Bend will be lost."

"On the other hand, if we hang a Thug today, it stands to reason that if the rumors about such abilities are correct, the Thug will survive. We will still have four innocents and two spiked. At which point, the spiked will probably kill another innocent. At which point, we will at least still have three innocents against two spiked. We will still at least in theory have a fighting chance, if we can unanimously agree on who the spiked are and fight them."

"Of course, that probably won't work if the spiked turn out to be tougher than expected. Say, if one of them was a Thug, and not the one we already hung. Thugs are said to fight with the ferocity of two regular people. I don't think three of us would be enough to face down two spiked, if the spiked had a Thug on their side and we didn't."

Lord Pending tacked on some more paper below his outline of suspicions, drew a large plus-sign breaking the paper up into four sections, and started writing.

Quote

Case One: Spiked have one Thug, we hang a Thug.
- If we hang the spiked Thug, we will face a 3v2 tomorrow, with 1 vial of pewter on the side of the village.
- If we hang the village Thug, we will face a 3v2 tomorrow, with 1 vial of pewter on the side of the spiked. This is an immediate loss.

Case Two: Spiked have no Thugs, we hang a Thug.
- If we hang a village Thug, we will face a 3v2 tomorrow, with 1 vial of pewter on the side of the village.

Case Three: Spiked have one Thug, we don't hang a Thug.
- If we hang a spiked non-Thug, we will face a 3v1 tomorrow, with 1 vial of pewter on the side of the spiked.
- If we hang a village non-Thug, we will face a 2v2 tomorrow, with 1 vial of pewter on the side of the spiked. This is an immediate loss.

Case Four: Spiked have no Thugs, we don't hang a Thug.
- If we hang a spiked non-Thug, we will face a 3v1 tomorrow, with 2 vials of pewter on the side of the village.
- If we hang a village non-Thug, we will face a 2v2 tomorrow, with 2 vials of pewter on the side of the village. This is still an immediate loss.

"In conclusion, the most important thing at this juncture is obviously to hang a spiked."

"That said, all else held equal, it may actually be safer to hang a Thug. The only way this dooms us is if one of the 2 Thugs is indeed spiked, but we get it wrong and hang the innocent one."

"What do you all think?"

EDIT:

Lord Pending sighed.

The spiked were killing all the loudest people.

He didn't have much confidence that anyone who wasn't spiked would answer his question anytime soon.

"Fine," he grunted. "I'll decide myself."

"While I think that Rem looks very evil, it is technically safer for us to go after a suspicious Thug than a suspicious Lurcher. Even if the spiked don't have any Thugs, this is still the case, because at least it buys us some time."

"Therefore, my vote is for Dasenk. Dasenk is almost equally suspicious as Rem, but has the distinction that Dasenk actually might well be a Thug."

[Ravenclawjedi42]

14 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

After a thoughtful pause, Lord Pending spoke up again.

"Hrm. Let's review the numbers for a moment."

"There are six of us left in Copper's Bend, excluding the mayor of course. I don't trust that the mayor will be of very much help," Lord Pending said loftily.

"I am going to make explicit my assumption that there are two spiked. This assumption seems eminently reasonable to me. If there were three spiked, Copper's Bend would already be lost, no two ways about it. If there were one, well, then we'll likely have the chance to cross that bridge when we get to it. A lone spiked probably indicates that one of the Thugs is guilty. Or maybe Sirta, but I don't believe in it. But again, we'll likely have the chance to cross that bridge when we get to it."

"So. Assuming four innocents and two spiked... If we hang the wrong person today, that puts us at three innocents and two spiked, at which point the spiked will probably kill another innocent, and our numbers will be evenly matched. Once that happens, Copper's Bend will be lost."

"On the other hand, if we hang a Thug today, it stands to reason that if the rumors about such abilities are correct, the Thug will survive. We will still have four innocents and two spiked. At which point, the spiked will probably kill another innocent. At which point, we will at least still have three innocents against two spiked. We will still at least in theory have a fighting chance, if we can unanimously agree on who the spiked are and fight them."

"Of course, that probably won't work if the spiked turn out to be tougher than expected. Say, if one of them was a Thug, and not the one we already hung. Thugs are said to fight with the ferocity of two regular people. I don't think three of us would be enough to face down two spiked, if the spiked had a Thug on their side and we didn't."

Lord Pending tacked on some more paper below his outline of suspicions, drew a large plus-sign breaking the paper up into four sections, and started writing.

"In conclusion, the most important thing at this juncture is obviously to hang a spiked."

"That said, all else held equal, it may actually be safer to hang a Thug. The only way this dooms us is if one of the 2 Thugs is indeed spiked, but we get it wrong and hang the innocent one."

"What do you all think?"

EDIT:

Lord Pending sighed.

The spiked were killing all the loudest people.

He didn't have much confidence that anyone who wasn't spiked would answer his question anytime soon.

"Fine," he grunted. "I'll decide myself."

"While I think that Rem looks very evil, it is technically safer for us to go after a suspicious Thug than a suspicious Lurcher. Even if the spiked don't have any Thugs, this is still the case, because at least it buys us some time."

"Therefore, my vote is for Dasenk. Dasenk is almost equally suspicious as Rem, but has the distinction that Dasenk actually might well be a Thug."

“That might not be the best reason to vote for me, Pending. I might put my vote on Rem, as he does seem suspicious and perhaps this will convince you not to vote for me. Again not the best reasons to vote for someone but—“ Dasenk doesn’t finish that sentence, as he realized that he hadn’t planned out the end of it.

[DrakeMarshall]

2 minutes ago, Ookla thePresentParticiple said:

“That might not be the best reason to vote for me, Pending. I might put my vote on Rem, as he does seem suspicious and perhaps this will convince you not to vote for me. Again not the best reasons to vote for someone but—“ Dasenk doesn’t finish that sentence, as he realized that he hadn’t planned out the end of it.

Lord Pending gestured at the list of red marks below Dasenk's name on the paper tacked to the wall.

"I listed plenty of reasons last night," he said blandly.

"Whereas as far as I can tell, you have no prior reasoning of your own against Rem. Maybe you agree with mine," Lord Pending said, pointing at the paper again and the red marks under Rem's name, "But you can't easily do that while ignoring your own section, I figure."

"If your main reason for voting today is to make yourself look better and give me second thoughts..." Lord Pending sighed. "That's a pretty good reason to suspect you right there."

[Ravenclawjedi42]

1 hour ago, DrakeMarshall said:

Lord Pending gestured at the list of red marks below Dasenk's name on the paper tacked to the wall.

"I listed plenty of reasons last night," he said blandly.

"Whereas as far as I can tell, you have no prior reasoning of your own against Rem. Maybe you agree with mine," Lord Pending said, pointing at the paper again and the red marks under Rem's name, "But you can't easily do that while ignoring your own section, I figure."

"If your main reason for voting today is to make yourself look better and give me second thoughts..." Lord Pending sighed. "That's a pretty good reason to suspect you right there."

“No, you gave reasons. And I should address them. Give me a moment.” Dasenk looks through a transcript of last night. “I didn’t say that you didn’t give reasons, or at least that isn’t what I meant. I meant that you didn’t have the best reasoning in switching from Rem to me. I personally think that Rem seems much more likely to be Spiked, but that’s just primarily because I’m me. My vote on Sono was…regrettable. I don’t think I was there much at sunset, if at all, and I had voted for Sono an hour or so earlier for reasons that I stated then, hoping that the vote would become untied by sunset. I think. It’s been a while since that happened, I’ll reread a transcript to make sure that this is accurate. And my suspicion of you could seem suspicious as I did not often give reasons, which make sense, but that is because either I did not have reasons and it was a gut instinct or because my reasons were already summed up by previous points.”

[Sart]

Sirta had to examine the facts. There were only six people left alive, and somehow there had been two Thug claims. He knew, of course, that he was not a Thug. As he had bloodily demonstrated, he was a Coinshot. Despite his survival in the Night, Rem had not claimed to be a Thug, and instead was claiming Lurcher. Furthermore, Pending had claimed to be a Seeker, but had admitted that was rubbish. If Pending had claimed Thug before that gambit, it would have greatly harmed the ruse. It was still technically possible, but unlikely. Furthermore, they had to have a Tineye among them, or else the messages would not go through. Didn't that fill in the role list though? One Coinshot, one Lurcher, two Thugs, one Tineye, and one fake Seeker. He supposed Pending could actually be the Tineye, but it didn't quite fit. The message was extremely short, not fitting with Pending's grandiose style. One way to confirm it though. @DrakeMarshall Are you the Tineye? If not, who is? The other two would then be our Thug claims.

 

 

[Archer]

"HELP HELP SOMEONE HAS ATTACKED. Oh, you're all already up." Rem rubbed his eyes. "I'm still a little sleepy, but I do want to clarify one thing. 

" I am a Thug. After I was attacked, I convinced Onon to reframe how I was portrayed in order to direct the kill towards less obvious places. I can envision no world where I and the other Thug are both innocent, so my vote is going on the other guy. Kindly reveal yourself so I can do that."

*

EDIT:

“Now that I’ve taken care of some other business, allow me to more fully explain myself,” Rem said. “I suspected Sono on our first Day of meetings. When Onon waffled, I claimed my Thug role to them in an effort to show why I thought a Lurcher was a balanced fit for the Spiked. During the first Night, Onon somewhat carelessly announced to us all that there are two Thugs among us. Fearing that I would be targeted again by the killers in the Night, I asked them to alter that narrative to present me as a Lurcher. It was a longshot claim that I would be a Lurcher would two charges, and in retrospect, I suspect the Spiked didn’t believe it. Onon should have left a recap of these events with his personal confidants who may speak up to verify it.”

Edited December 1, 2023 by Ookla the Paradigm

[DrakeMarshall]

2 hours ago, Ookla thePresentParticiple said:

“And my suspicion of you could seem suspicious as I did not often give reasons, which make sense, but that is because either I did not have reasons and it was a gut instinct or because my reasons were already summed up by previous points.”

"To verify, based on those reasons you believed me to be 'almost certainly spiked' last night?"

"And do you still hold that belief today? If not, what has changed? If yes, then why not vote for me?"

"Not that I want you to vote for me," Lord Pending said hastily. "But I'm honestly puzzled. If you are indeed a loyal member of Copper's Bend, changing your reads without showing your work makes it rather harder for me to tell, I suppose. And if you're spiked, then it follows that your votes are based more on convenience than on conviction, and your behavior more or less falls within the profile."

1 hour ago, Sart said:

@DrakeMarshall Are you the Tineye? If not, who is? The other two would then be our Thug claims.

"I have sent you a message containing the truth on the matter. You can share it with everyone if you want, or not."

1 hour ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

" I am a Thug. After I was attacked, I convinced Onon to reframe how I was portrayed in order to direct the kill towards less obvious places. I can envision no world where I and the other Thug are both innocent, so my vote is going on the other guy. Kindly reveal yourself so I can do that."

Lord Pending pinched his temples, feeling an immediate and dire headache.

"Tha- That can't be true."

He sounded uncertain and slightly angry.

"If Onon did something like that, then his ploy ran significantly longer than mine did, likely inflicted greater amounts of derailment on Copper's Bend given it was half the reason we unjustly executed Sono, and... As far as I can tell, didn't have anything useful to show for it. At least I obtained a solid reason to trust Sirta out of my fake seeker mess."

"It isn't even obvious to me how telling this lie even succeeds at directing the kill anywhere helpful, but supposing it did, that would still be a weak reason to sow such a damaging deception."

"I really don't think he'd do that. You're lying."

"Even just last night, he was proceeding with analysis about you on the assumption that you were a Lurcher. He was clearly grappling with it and rethinking things based on it. It's there in his notes." Lord Pending brandished a scrap of paper.

Quote

Hang on a tick. Wasn't the entire point of Rem's push against Sono the improbability of two Lurchers? Weren't we supposed to buy the whole reason Rem was so dead-set against Sono D1 was because of the Two Lurcher Problem? I certainly had other issues against Sono, but I don't feel Rem's own "your behaviour changed" argument against Sono was this strong and warranted this sort of 'I will vote you unto a tie and beyond' behaviour without the backup of the Two Lurcher Problem.

"I'm not even sure Onon could have lied to Copper's Bend like that, even if he'd had a good reason to. And I don't see a reason that holds water."

Lord Pending sighed.

"You're lying through your teeth right now, I think. It takes a liar to know a liar, I suppose," Lord Pending made a crooked smile.

"And the way I see it, the only fair reason to lie about this is because you're spiked, isn't it?" he mused. "You saw that you'd miscalculated and that we clearly didn't want to believe in two innocent Lurchers... So you just decided to change your claim."

Lord Pending shook his head slowly. He would have prefered to hang a Thug, all else being equal. But it wasn't equal anymore. He was confident that Rem was spiked. Well, fairly confident. More confident than he was about Dasenk, in any case. It would have to be good enough. One thing was for certain and that was that Copper's Bend couldn't survive any waffling right now. His fingers turned white as he clutched his cane like a weapon.

"Rem, let's settle this honorably, shall we?"

[Archer]

2 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

"If Onon did something like that, then his ploy ran significantly longer than mine did, likely inflicted greater amounts of derailment on Copper's Bend given it was half the reason we unjustly executed Sono, and... As far as I can tell, didn't have anything useful to show for it. At least I obtained a solid reason to trust Sirta out of my fake seeker mess."

"Even just last night, he was proceeding with analysis about you on the assumption that you were a Lurcher. He was clearly grappling with it and rethinking things based on it. It's there in his notes." Lord Pending brandished a scrap of paper.

 

"I was drawn to voting Sono for reasons other than their role and it's revisionist history to say they weren't the best candidate even without knowledge of their role. Would you rather we killed you on the second Day? There was no need to undo the lie until after last Night, in order to give the gambit purpose, which is why I have held my tongue this long."

Quote

Hang on a tick. Wasn't the entire point of Rem's push against Sono the improbability of two Lurchers? Weren't we supposed to buy the whole reason Rem was so dead-set against Sono D1 was because of the Two Lurcher Problem? I certainly had other issues against Sono, but I don't feel Rem's own "your behaviour changed" argument against Sono was this strong and warranted this sort of 'I will vote you unto a tie and beyond' behaviour without the backup of the Two Lurcher Problem.

"As for this... I know that Onon verbally acknowledged in our private communications that my fake claim was just pretend. I ascribe this to drugs addling their brain." 

Quote

"Rem, let's settle this honorably, shall we?"

Rem patted their pockets. "I appear to have left my deck of cards at the Stalehouse. I fear we require another means of resolving this."

[JNV]

39 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

"I really don't think he'd do that. You're lying."

Jorrick stepped forward. "As one of Onon's 'personal confidants' I can verify that he's telling the truth, unfortunately, and while Onon was a bit misleading in the analysis, he was just as torn between suspecting Rem and you as he appeared. Perhaps even more so."

[DrakeMarshall]

6 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

"I was drawn to voting Sono for reasons other than their role and it's revisionist history to say they weren't the best candidate even without knowledge of their role. Would you rather we killed you on the second Day? There was no need to undo the lie until after last Night, in order to give the gambit purpose, which is why I have held my tongue this long."

"I'm not talking about your reasons, I'm talking about Onon's. Also mine, if it matters. Analysis based on abilities certainly wasn't the only reason to hang Sono, but it also certainly wasn't an insignificant one. Whether or not you think that, I'm convinced that Onon did. And that's a serious problem for your story, because you are claiming that Onon knowingly decided to spread this deception."

Lord Pending shook his head.

"One of us is revising history here, on that we can most certainly agree."

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

"As for this... I know that Onon verbally acknowledged in our private communications that my fake claim was just pretend. I ascribe this to drugs addling their brain."

"...And all I have is your word for it. Because Onon is dead. Therein lies our problem," Lord Pending lamented.

"Huffing firemoss or not, I find it very hard to swallow that Onon would do this. It seems inconsistent with many other things he said."

18 minutes ago, Ookla the Paradigm said:

Rem patted their pockets. "I appear to have left my deck of cards at the Stalehouse. I fear we require another means of resolving this."

Lord Pending opened his mouth to respond, then shut it, interrupted by Jorrick's timely arrival.

4 minutes ago, JNV said:

Jorrick stepped forward. "As one of Onon's 'personal confidants' I can verify that he's telling the truth, unfortunately, and while Onon was a bit misleading in the analysis, he was just as torn between suspecting Rem and you as he appeared. Perhaps even more so."

He pinched his temples again and let out a long breath.

"Well then. That settles it, I suppose. Unless both of you are spiked, there's no questioning this testimony."

"And I fully believe Onon would confide in you about something of this sort, if he truly was running a con."

"Odds are, you've actually been speaking the truth, then," he pointed at Rem.

Lord Pending shook his head in disgust and started walking slowly towards the Stalehouse.

"I need a drink and some time to think."

"Don't get ideas about my suddenly trusting you now or anything," he growled out. "Just because I believe you're probably telling the truth about this doesn't necessarily mean I trust you."

[DrakeMarshall]

Lord Pending careened out of the Stalehouse.

"Y'know, haffa the reashon I trust you in the second day in the first place's 'cause your actions jusht seemed preeetty left field t'me if you're a shpiked Lurcher," he slurred, looking in Rem's general direction. "An' if I hadn't heard you'd claimed Lurcher, I'd actually been plannin' to pull the ol' fake-sheeker ploy on you, claiming t'have figured you out as a shpiked Thug, 'stead of goin' after Sirta like I did. Wonder how it would've gone," Lord Pending appeared lost in thought.

"Anywaysh, I've thought 'bout it, an... If you're a Thug, I still basically believe you're spiked."

"An' for that matter, if we're to believe one o' the Thugs oughtta be shpiked... Seems likely that whoever that ish is somebody I trust more than you."

"So 'm still voting for ya."

He waved his cane at Rem in a poor impression of fencing moves.

"You wan' a piece a me? Have at ya, ya hoodlum."

[Ravenclawjedi42]

7 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

"To verify, based on those reasons you believed me to be 'almost certainly spiked' last night?"

"And do you still hold that belief today? If not, what has changed? If yes, then why not vote for me?"

"Not that I want you to vote for me," Lord Pending said hastily. "But I'm honestly puzzled. If you are indeed a loyal member of Copper's Bend, changing your reads without showing your work makes it rather harder for me to tell, I suppose. And if you're spiked, then it follows that your votes are based more on convenience than on conviction, and your behavior more or less falls within the profile."

“I have realized what happened last night. I forgot to read what had happened at the end of the previous day, which was a very stupid mistake of mine. I don’t quite remember, at best I skimmed, but I was voting for a previous version of you, from when you were still claiming Seeker. I apologize, and I no longer think that you are as suspicious as you were before.”

[Archer]

Rem wanted some of every Pending was drinking. 

"Don't you get it? There's six of us. This is it. The other Thug takes two voting sessions to kill, meaning they have time to kill everyone else and leave their partner in a tie with the last villager, giving them the win since ties kill no one. I'll add that me giving up the ability to tank an execution is a hefty price to pay for trickery. I know why the other Thug isn't claiming, but it'd be nice if someone else would point them out so I can convince you all."

 

[DrakeMarshall]

“Whadds ya mean ‘don’t you geddit’ to me? I already hashed out the options. I already shaid we’d prolly be boned if’n we don’t lynch a shpiked,” Lord Pending slurred testily. “I think you’re spiked.”

”If you’re not, then convince me without having a shcapegoat handed to ya. Or y’know if you’re really tryna solve things ya can try to work out the other Thug! I figured the Coinshot din’t I? ‘S not that crazy.”

[DrakeMarshall]

11 hours ago, Ookla thePresentParticiple said:

“I have realized what happened last night. I forgot to read what had happened at the end of the previous day, which was a very stupid mistake of mine. I don’t quite remember, at best I skimmed, but I was voting for a previous version of you, from when you were still claiming Seeker. I apologize, and I no longer think that you are as suspicious as you were before.”

“Eh, s’pose that’s a fair nuff response for the time being. Reckon it’s kinda strange to believe there’s an unresolved seeker claim accusing Sirta an that one of the sheeker or Sirta has gotta be spiked, an then not go back an check what happened when neither of those folks get hanged, but ‘s not a today problem. If anythin, I ‘spose a spiked would prolly have a better idea of what went down, cuz you’d be talkin’ about it amongst yourselves and such. So I ‘spose that’s gotta be a point in favor of your not bein’ shpiked after all.”

[Ravenclawjedi42]

39 minutes ago, DrakeMarshall said:

“Eh, s’pose that’s a fair nuff response for the time being. Reckon it’s kinda strange to believe there’s an unresolved seeker claim accusing Sirta an that one of the sheeker or Sirta has gotta be spiked, an then not go back an check what happened when neither of those folks get hanged, but ‘s not a today problem. If anythin, I ‘spose a spiked would prolly have a better idea of what went down, cuz you’d be talkin’ about it amongst yourselves and such. So I ‘spose that’s gotta be a point in favor of your not bein’ shpiked after all.”

“Do you think you’d like some water?” asked Dasenk, concerned for his health. “And I was quite exhausted at the time, I believe, and not thinking too much.

[Archer]

2 hours ago, DrakeMarshall said:

”If you’re not, then convince me without having a shcapegoat handed to ya. Or y’know if you’re really tryna solve things ya can try to work out the other Thug! I figured the Coinshot din’t I? ‘S not that crazy.”

Rem had considered just plowing ahead with making a case for all of the Thug candidates being evil, or even trying to figure out possible teammates for them. He couldn't bring himself to do it though. "The infuriating thing is that I know who is evil. With 100% certainty I can name a Spiked. Except I don't and I can't."